Werewolf XXXIII: To Crown a King 2 (Game Over)

[st.cronin]

FREE LONESTARGIRL

JAIL ANXIETY

[BrianD]

Crap. Crap, crap, crap.

I guess we can't say the assasins aren't smart. Blade and Hooops were probably the ones most willing to spend their time working the math on this game. The rest of us are going to have to step up and shoulder the load.

[BrianD]

Barkeep, I've got a quick question for you. You have been listing the votes in the order they were cast with a summary showing vote totals. It looks like the votes listed in the vote totals are still in the order they were cast. Is this correct? I want to try to correct Hoops' point totals with the "lynching" votes, and I'd like to not copy down more information than I need to. Thanks.

[BrianD]

It probably goes without saying, but it looks like Blade was killed by a normal assassin while Hoops was killed by the Tricky Assassin.

[BrianD]

I know the points for the LSG jailing aren't in yet, but will we know who had the "lynching" vote in a tie?

[BrianD]

quadruple dola,

Does anyone know why Hoops thought Faction Leaders' votes count as double? Do they always, or only in the case of a tie breaker? I didn't see anything in the rules talking about that.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by BrianD

quadruple dola,

Does anyone know why Hoops thought Faction Leaders' votes count as double? Do they always, or only in the case of a tie breaker? I didn't see anything in the rules talking about that.

probally just an oversight on his part as it's a pretty complex game.

I will say this lonestar is good

vote free lonestar

[SnDvls]

doal
vote free lonestargirl

to get the "girl" part in there.

[Mr. Wednesday]

They count double for jail/free, but not for execute/no execute.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

Good grief this is a total change. I didn't realize they could kill two people a night.

Three different ways, in fact, although I believe one of those is a sort of a lingering death that would have been apparent the day before.

Or is this making up for the lack of a death the other night?

Well, that's the question now, isn't it?

This kind of makes me suspicious of Chief.... I will be back at 4 to catch up and put in my votes.

You're in jail... no voting for you.

[Mr. Wednesday]

VOTE NO EXECUTE

[Lathum]

this is a poor turn of events but not unexpected. Barkeep, I have a question. If the assasins get a conversion with a fast talking nobel will that nobel take on any special assasin roles?

[st.cronin]

How does this make Chief Rum suspicious?

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

They count double for jail/free, but not for execute/no execute.

Could you quote a rule for me on that one please?

[Lathum]

i'm working from home today so if anyone wants to discuss strategy, etc... lemme know

[BrianD]

Here is an updated list of points with the known fact of Blade being a leader. Asside from Qwik, I assumed everyone to be a noble, so the totals might be slightly off. I also did this fairly quickly, so I included the points for each vote. Everyone is welcome to point out any errors.

NTN: -1
Day 1 Jail: Bullet "lynching" vote (-1)
Day 2 Execute?: No Execute (0)
Day 2 Jail: Real (1st) (0)
Day 3 Execute?: No Execute (0)
Day 3 Jail: Grey

Anxiety: 1
Day 1 Jail: Blade (1st) (.5)
Day 2 Execute?: Free (.5)
Day 2 Jail: Grey (1st) (0)
Day 3 Execute? No Execute (0)
Day 3 Jail: Grey (1st)

Qwikshot: 1
Day 1 Jail: Bullet (0)
Day 2 Execute?: - (.5)
Day 2 Jail: -
Day 3 Execute? - (.5)
Day 3 Jail: -

LSG 4
Day 1 Jail: Cronin (0)
Day 2 Execute?: Free (.5)
Day 2 Jail: Qwik (.5)
Day 3 Execute? Execute (1st) (3)
Day 3 Jail: Grey

Bullet -1
Day 1 Jail: Cronin (1st) (0)
Day 2 Execute?: - (-.5)
Day 2 Jail: -
Day 3 Execute? - (-.5)
Day 3 Jail: -

Bek/SnDvls 4.5
Day 1 Jail: - (-.5)
Day 2 Execute?: No Execute (0)
Day 2 Jail: Cronin (0)
Day 3 Execute? Execute "lynching vote" (5)
Day 3 Jail: King

Hoops 1
Day 1 Jail: Bullet (1st) (-1)
Day 2 Execute?: Free (.5)
Day 2 Jail: Qwik (.5)
Day 3 Execute? Execute (1)
Day 3 Jail:LSG (1st)

Grey 1
Day 1 Jail: Fouts (1st) (0)
Day 2 Execute?: No Execute (0)
Day 2 Jail: Qwik "lynching" vote (1.5)
Day 3 Execute? - (-.5)
Day 3 Jail: -

Cronin .5
Day 1 Jail: Bullet (0)
Day 2 Execute?: Free (.5)
Day 2 Jail: Fouts (1st) (0)
Day 3 Execute? No Execute (0)
Day 3 Jail: LSG

RealDeal 1
Day 1 Jail: Lathum (1st) (0)
Day 2 Execute?: No Execute (0)
Day 2 Jail: King (0)
Day 3 Execute? Execute (1)
Day 3 Jail: King

Blade 1.5
Day 1 Jail: Bullet (0)
Day 2 Execute?: Free (.5)
Day 2 Jail: Cronin (1st) (0)
Day 3 Execute? Execute (1)
Day 3 Jail: Cronin (1st)

Fouts 1.5
Day 1 Jail: Qwik (1st) (0)
Day 2 Execute?: No Execute (0)
Day 2 Jail: Qwik (.5)
Day 3 Execute? Execute (1)
Day 3 Jail: Grey

King 1
Day 1 Jail: - (-.5)
Day 2 Execute?: Free (.5)
Day 2 Jail: Lathum (1st) (0)
Day 3 Execute? Execute (1)
Day 3 Jail: Grey

Lathum .5
Day 1 Jail: Mr W (1st) (0)
Day 2 Execute?: Free (.5)
Day 2 Jail: King (1st) (0)
Day 3 Execute? No Execute (0)
Day 3 Jail: King (1st)

Chief Rum .5
Day 1 Jail: Hoops (1st) (0)
Day 2 Execute?: No Execute (0)
Day 2 Jail: Qwik (.5)
Day 3 Execute? No Execute (0)
Day 3 Jail: LSG

Dodger/??? -.5
Day 1 Jail: NTN (1st) (0)
Day 2 Execute?: - (-.5)
Day 2 Jail: -
Day 3 Execute? - (0)
Day 3 Jail: -

BrianD 3
Day 1 Jail: Chief (1st) (0)
Day 2 Execute?: Free (1st) (.5)
Day 2 Jail: Qwik (1st) (1.5)
Day 3 Execute? Execute (1)
Day 3 Jail: LSG

WVUFAN -.5
Day 1 Jail: Blade (.5)
Day 2 Execute?: - (-.5)
Day 2 Jail: -
Day 3 Execute? - (-.5)
Day 3 Jail: -

MrWednesday 2
Day 1 Jail: Blade (.5)
Day 2 Execute?: Free (.5)
Day 2 Jail: King (0)
Day 3 Execute? Execute (1)
Day 3 Jail: LSG

NTN: -1
Anxiety: 1
Qwikshot: 1
LSG 4
Bullet -1
Bek/SnDvls 4.5
Hoops 1
Grey 1
Cronin .5
RealDeal 1
Blade 1.5
Fouts 1.5
King 1
Lathum .5
Chief Rum .5
Dodger/??? -.5
BrianD 3
WVUFAN -.5
MrWednesday 2

[BrianD]

Is it too early to vote based on point totals? At this point, ntndeacon has the lowest point total of everyone that has voted every day. He is also someone I hadn't put on a faction yet...

[BrianD]

Actually, let's get this out there now and we can discuss later.

Free LoneStarGirl
Jail ntndeacon

[ntndeacon]

Actually Brian I may not have been the lynching vote on Bullet. We now know that Blade's vote on Bullet counted twice. So Assuming that he was the only faction leader in that side or on Blade. It is Blade that has the Lynch vote.

[ntndeacon]

Dola, plus we now know where some of the other points are lying. Every noble that voted for Blade got +0.5 for voting for a rival faction leader.

[ntndeacon]

Double Dola
Vote Lonestar Girl

[ntndeacon]

ack!
Vote Free Lonestar girl

That is what Iget for not reading my post before Ipost it

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

Actually Brian I may not have been the lynching vote on Bullet. We now know that Blade's vote on Bullet counted twice. So Assuming that he was the only faction leader in that side or on Blade. It is Blade that has the Lynch vote.

Ok, I found the place in the rules that talks about this. Leader's votes do count double for Jailing votes. Do we all think this means just the vote counts, or also for "lynch vote" purposes as well as point earning purposes?

[BrianD]

NTN, any reason you didn't join in on the freeing of Bullet or the lynching of Qwik?

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by BrianD

NTN, any reason you didn't join in on the freeing of Bullet or the lynching of Qwik?

Yes there is reason for both of them. First for Bullet, I knew that bullet had been vouched by one person (You if memory serves) But I had the thought that one assassin could vouch for one other and get the one in jail out of trouble. I was somewhat swayed, as I did not vote for execution. I wanted us to be able to get a little more evidence one way or another.

As far as not voting to execute Qwik, it was twofold. I wasn't sure oneway or another on him either. I did see and still do see the benifit of having someone executed however. I noted that he would be executed without my help. So I voted not to execute him, so that Iwould have a chance to execute someone (I hoped Grey) today, since a lot of folks were goingto be unable to vote to execute today. However, I have never been convinced Lonestargirl was an Assassin so with one of the possible execution voters voting against it, it is less likely to happen today.

[ntndeacon]

I still think it was a decent idea, it gives us the chance to possibly execute the assasins quicker. the assasins can kill a noble a day and if we all vote to execute someone we can only execute someone every other day.

[Lathum]

OK, I have alot of theories running around. I am trying to keep point totals out of it for now because we basicly have 15 people between -1 and 1.5 and to me that is to small a seperation to vote based on. I thnik it may be to easy to head in the wrong direction based on them. I do however have one point about them with regards to LSG.


For her to cast the first lynch vote on Qwik would be a great way for her to hide out in the open and buy a lot of time early in the game. I realize this would be a detriment to creating a revolution but I think it could be a tricky play. The fact that it is possible the assasians got an early conversion it would make one of them more expendable to try a play like this in case the lynch vote for qwik caught on, which it did.

Operating under that assumption

VOTE KEEP LSG IN JAIL

[Mr. Wednesday]

Observation -- we should be more suspicious now of anybody aligned with Blade, since it's possible that they turned another member of his faction and then killed him to try to set up a major victory.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Lathum, the proper vote to cast for that purpose is NO EXECUTE.

[Lathum]

oops

VOTE NO EXECUTE

[Lathum]

dola- I am pretty sure Qwik was the converted assasin and he was left hung out to dry. If I recall correctly there can be more then one fast talking noble but if the assasins hit to many they will grow tired of them. Perhaps they threw qwik "under the bus" since they hit him so early they viewed him as expendable.

I asked barkeep if a converted assasin takes on any abilities and if the answer is no then that strengthens my point for qwik being expendable

[BrianD]

Do we actually know anyone that is/was alligned with Blade? I figured him for a noble, but I didn't have him alligned with anyone.

To go over some past discussions, I now and quite sure that there are, in fact, 4 members in each faction. I had trouble finding the last member, but I finally did...and it makes our faction point total make much more sense.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by BrianD

Ok, I found the place in the rules that talks about this. Leader's votes do count double for Jailing votes. Do we all think this means just the vote counts, or also for "lynch vote" purposes as well as point earning purposes?

Didn't barkeep clarify this before the night actions were posted?

[Lathum]

ok, since it's been pretty quiet around here I am going to put my vote out there. Alot of people have been quiet but I still think King has played a strange game so unless someone has something better

VOTE JAIL KINGFC22

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

Didn't barkeep clarify this before the night actions were posted?

Did he? I'll have to go back and look...

[RealDeal]

Looks like it's time to get the calculator out. We have a ton of info to work with, it's just a matter of putting it together.

I'll put this is as a placeholder vote right now:

vote no execute
vote jail king

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

Didn't barkeep clarify this before the night actions were posted?

I didn't find anything that clarified this. If you find it, could you quote it for me?

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by BrianD

Do we actually know anyone that is/was alligned with Blade? I figured him for a noble, but I didn't have him alligned with anyone.

There's minor alignment among the folks who voted not to jail him on day 1.

Other than that, I'm not sure we'll see anything. The game is set up so that there's a certain advantage in the faction rank and file identifying without revealing who their leader is. Now, Blade's a clever guy, so amongst his smokescreen of being a rank and file, he might have actually thrown his lot in with his actual faction, but I'm not prepared, right now, to try to find it.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by Lathum

dola- I am pretty sure Qwik was the converted assasin and he was left hung out to dry. If I recall correctly there can be more then one fast talking noble but if the assasins hit to many they will grow tired of them. Perhaps they threw qwik "under the bus" since they hit him so early they viewed him as expendable.

I think that's highly unlikely. The converted assassin is the route to a major victory; with the assassins having no idea exactly how many fast talkers there are (only a strong suspicion that there's more than one), I think he would be much too valuable a resource to be thrown away.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

VOTE NO EXECUTE

Does it strike anybody else as suspicious that Mr. W is voting no execute this early in the day?


-Anxiety

[Mr. Wednesday]

Earlier votes are more significant, for better or for worse. Since I expect to be around until at least ca. 6:45p, it makes sense for me to put a vote down early. It's not like I cast a quick vote to kill her or to free her.

[Abe Sargent]

Earlier votes are NOT signbificant if all you do is vote to leave someone in jail. Vote to execute, vote to free, those make sense. Vote to just leave her there that early in teh day without much information? That strikes me as suspect.

[bulletsponge]

Vote Free Lonestargirl

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by BrianD

I didn't find anything that clarified this. If you find it, could you quote it for me?

nope couldn't find it must have been the talk about jailing then too. though I saw it discussed. The rules don't say one way or the other on double votes for executing, but I would assume from the point totals breakdown (if correct and I have a strong reason to say they are) that there aren't double points awarded.

[WVUFAN]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

WVUFAN
Day 1: voted for Blade, was 4th man on him at the time (4-2 margin)
Day 2: no vote
Day 3: no vote

Summary: is raging against the machine over the new WW board. I would like to see him re-join the game currently in progress

Yeah, I've finished bitching. I'm back now. Reading up on the posts I've missed.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

I think that's highly unlikely. The converted assassin is the route to a major victory; with the assassins having no idea exactly how many fast talkers there are (only a strong suspicion that there's more than one), I think he would be much too valuable a resource to be thrown away.

I've got to agree with this. While Qwik might have been a converted assassin, I find it highly unlikely. First, the Assassins would have had to guess right on the fast-talker on night 1. Slightly better than 5% chance. Second, we would have had to pick the same person on Night 2. Also possible but unlikely. Third, Qwik's faction members (who wouldn't know he was converted) would have to stay silent while he was marched to the gallows. I just don't see all of this happening. I think it much more likely that we hit on an assassin early and the other assassins didn't know how to save him without identifying themselves so they let him go.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

nope couldn't find it must have been the talk about jailing then too. though I saw it discussed. The rules don't say one way or the other on double votes for executing, but I would assume from the point totals breakdown (if correct and I have a strong reason to say they are) that there aren't double points awarded.

Do you have any ideas on the double-votes having an effect on "lynching" votes? Do you see any big point totals added or missing from any of your guys?

[WVUFAN]

I just read the rules and saw that there's an assassin role that kills twice in one night:

Originally Posted by The Rules

Efficient Assassin
Able to kill quickly and easily, once per game this assassin may select two targets for the night kill.

I think this may have been what happened. It doesn't mean LonestarGirl is innocent.

EXECUTE LONESTARGIRL
JAIL LATHUM

[Lathum]

umm, so you do nothing for 3 days then throw out a random vote to jail me? I guess you do what you gotta do.

[LoneStarGirl]

I wish I could vote, WVU is picking at straws. I would jail him quick before he royally messes up. There is no reason to execute me because you have nothing else to go on.