The 14 Game Tournament (A Real Life Dynasty)

[digamma]

So, it's probably worth talking a little bit about Princeton as an at large team.

Let's be clear, none of the talking heads are talking about Princeton as an at large team.

But, after this weekend, the Tigers are up to #41 in the RPI. If they beat Yale on Friday and then lose a one game playoff, they would finish the season around #30 in the RPI, if not in the high 20s. If they just lost to Yale and finished 12-2, they'd still finish about #25.

The reason they aren't being talked about is that they didn't beat anyone out of conference and they lost to anyone with a pulse. With Columbia falling outside the top 100, Princeton is 0-5 against Top 100 teams (using ESPN's BPI or KenPom) and 16-0 against teams outside the top 100. They just aren't going to get a look as a non-major without a signature win.

Hell, Monmouth is 4-2 against the top 100 and barely getting a look.

It will be interesting to see what happens on Friday night. Yale looked really strong in the second half against Dartmouth and all game versus Harvard. Princeton looked great Friday night and in the last 11 seconds and last minute of overtime versus Columbia. It is worth finding a spot to watch--though as of the moment that is only on the Ivy League Digital Network.

[digamma]

ESPN3 picked up the Yale-Princeton game. I'll try to detail the match-up a little bit more than normal prior to tip off.

[digamma]

Yale vs. Princeton

Tomorrow night could decide the Ivy League race. If Yale wins, they would have a two game lead with five games to play, and only one of those games would be against anyone with a pulse. That's not to say crazy things couldn't happen (in 2013, Princeton inexplicably lost two games on the season's final weekend to really inferior Yale and Brown teams to lose the league lead and title), but in reality, if Yale wins, they should win the league.

Of course, if Princeton wins, then it remains not just a two team race but a three team race. Columbia would have a shot too, with games against Princeton and Yale remaining.

For the sake of this dynasty, the Tigers are our team tomorrow night.

What happened last time...

Yale controlled the game against Princeton and never trailed. That said, they could never pull away. Yale jumped out to a 28-16 lead early, only to see Princeton cut it to six at halftime. The second half was more of the same. Yale again stretched the lead, taking it as high as 16 points, but the Tigers kept coming back. They got the ball with 25 seconds left down only 3. They missed and Yale hit a free throw to provide the final margin of 79-75.

Two things jump out from that game. Yale controlled the boards. Yale shot greater than 50% from three (11-19).

What might change...

Well both teams have been blowing teams out since playing, with the exception of Princeton's game against Columbia. And the game is at Princeton, where Jadwin Gym is known to be difficult for opposing shooters due to the high ceilings and weirdish curved background.

The line is likely to be something like Princeton -3 or -4, just as it was Yale -4 at Yale. That essentially means the oddsmakers view these teams as even on a neutral court.

When Yale has the ball...

Yale works inside out through Justin Sears. This tends to free up Makai Mason for threes or penetration. Brandon Sherrod (of Whiffenpoofs fame) has quietly put together an outstanding season. Before Harvard shut him down (largely because he was being guarded by Harvard's best post player), he had been on a run of 8 straight games in double figures, including 25 against Columbia (including 13-18 from the line). Yale found a sixth man last weekend in Anthony Dallier. He scored 10 points against both Harvard and Dartmouth.

If Yale has a weakness offensively, it is turning the ball over. They are 300+ in the nation in turnover rate and Mason turns the ball over way too much for as good as he is.

Defensively, Princeton is sort of average. They rebound well, but other than that, they're going to trust their offense is going to be the thing to win games. And that's a good thing because...

When Princeton has the ball...

Princeton has been an efficient machine recently. They shoot well, they pass well, they don't turn it over and they get a decent amount of offensive rebounds.

The offense is still going through Henry Caruso. He's still shooting almost 50% from three point range. Devin Cannady is coming off the bench and shooting 45% from three. In fact, Princeton gets 35% of its points from three point land.

Princeton has found a little bit of an inside game recently with Pete Miller. He's coming off a 20 point game against Columbia and is shooting 58% from the field in conference.

If Princeton shoots as well as they have recently, they'll win the game. They didn't hit the three ball against Columbia, but have been on fire, otherwise.

Yale is better defensively than Princeton, and Yale does pose some matchup issues. Sherrod and Sears can play Miller straight up and both are athletic enough to cover whatever 6'5" dude Princeton throws at them.

What I think will happen...

I think the matchup problems Yale causes are really interesting, particularly when they have the ball. I think it is difficult for Princeton to guard both Sears and Sherrod. I don't however, underestimate the Princeton home court advantage. The game is tight and Princeton is playing well and at home. I wouldn't be surprised to see Yale control the game early again, but see Princeton there at the end. As a betting man, if Yale is getting more than four points, I'm taking the Elis. If less than that, it may be a gut feel at the time of the game. I think it's pretty close. Sorry for the cop out.

[digamma]

Another Friday night...

Yale at Princeton (-3)
Detailed pretty much above. The only thing that has changed is that it appears Jack Montague, Yale's captain and starting off guard, will miss the weekend and may be off the team. They played well without him last week. Everything I look at from a numbers perspective says take Princeton, though I have a weird feeling that Yale wins. Officially, I'm going to stay with the numbers and take Princeton.

Harvard (+7.5) at Columbia
The last five first halves of Harvard Columbia games have been 32-17, 48-31, 37-20, 39-26 and 30-28, all in favor of the Crimson. That includes this year (32-17). That tells me that there's an initial match-up issue for Columbia, and they take some time getting settled versus Harvard. Add in the very real chance of a Columbia hangover from the Princeton game last Saturday. BLIND SPOT ALERT: I will take the Crimson and the points.

Dartmouth (+1) at Cornell
Dartmouth blew a 12 point lead at home in the last ten minutes of the game in the first meeting with Cornell. Since then Cornell has gone 0-4 getting beaten by 30 twice and losing to Penn and Brown too. Dartmouth played really well last weekend beating Brown by 17 and hanging tough with Yale. The computer stuff in this game actually favors Cornell by a decent margin, but there's a theory that when there's a mismatch like that, somebody knows something. So, we go with the somebodies.

Brown at Penn (-6)
It looks like we have two teams heading in opposite directions. Penn has played well two weekends in a row, getting a split last week on the NY trip and sweeping Dartmouth and Harvard the weekend before. Brown was swept last weekend and didn't look very good. Now they head to Penn. I'm going to take the home team.

Picks:
Princeton -3
Harvard +7.5
Dartmouth +1
Penn -6

[digamma]

We actually got Dartmouth at +2.

[digamma]

Well, I'm kind of sorry for anyone who watched the Yale-Princeton game. It was really sloppy, and not that exciting. Yale led 19-13 with 9 minutes left in the first half and then 27-24 with 4 minutes left. Princeton closed the first half with a 15-2 run to lead 39-29. Yale never got back to within a possession.

Both teams shot below their averages and they combined for 30 turnovers. Yale shot 1-12 from 3 point land. The teams shot 43 free throws combined.

In the end Princeton won 75-62. So we have a tie at the top.

And Columbia is still in it. They played maybe the best game of anyone so far this season, beating Harvard 90-76. Columbia shot 58% from the floor, including making 11 three pointers. They shot 17/21 from the free throw line. They got 9 steals and only had 6 turnovers. Even with that, this was a 58-56 game with 10 minutes left. Columbia scored 32 points over the last 10 minutes, shooting 10/14 over that stretch. Impressive.

In Ithaca, Dartmouth pulled away from Cornell and won 78-64.

And for the second week in a row, we have a bad beat on the gambling front. Penn led Brown 79-71 with 15 seconds left. Brown came down and hit a three to make it 79-74 with 11 seconds left. They then tried to commit the intentional foul, but it wasn't called and Penn tossed the ball up court to a guy who dribbled the clock out.

We finish 2-2 and sit at 19-12-2 for the season. But, we have a race!

Tomorrow Princeton hosts Brown, Yale goes to Penn, in what could be a really tricky game, Cornell is home versus Harvard and the suddenly red hot Dartmouth team travels to Columbia.

[digamma]

The top three teams took care of business last night.

Princeton jumped out to a 66-42 lead over Brown and won 77-66 after subbing in liberally the last ten minutes.

Yale did it's standard blow out a team in the last ten minutes routine, scoring 26 points over the last 10 minutes to win 79-58.

Columbia did the same, outscoring Dartmouth 22-11 down the stretch to win 73-54.

Which brings us to Harvard-Cornell. The first half started for Harvard the same way the Columbia game had ended. Cornell jumped out to a big lead, hitting pretty much everything they threw up. The Big Red scored 39 points in the first 11 minutes of the game and led 39-21 at that point. They led 46-31 at the half and then extended the lead to 67-46 with a little over 9 minutes left in the game.

So the Crimson looked done, for the game and the season. And that's when an improbable 28-4 run happens over 7 minutes to give Harvard a 74-71 lead. Tommy McCarthy led the way hitting four threes and going 7-8 from the line. The Crimson got 18 offensive boards.

Still that left a minute and Cornell jacked up another 25 foot three pointer to tie. Give the ball back to McCarthy, and the freshman delivered. He hit a runner with five seconds left to put the Crimson up 76-74. Cornell threw the ball away and didn't get up a shot and the Crimson escape Ithaca with a big comeback victory.

Heading into next weekend, the standings look like this:

Yale 9-1
Princeton 8-1
Columbia 8-2
Everyone else.

Columbia travels to the Ps with the big one against Princeton on Friday night. Yale hosts Harvard and Dartmouth.

Betting wise, we were on the wrong end of things last night.

I liked Princeton to cover 18 and felt good about that at 66-42.

I didn't really like the other lines (Columbia and Yale both 9 point picks), but took both underdogs. Again I felt ok 3/4 through each game, but both broke the wrong way.

And we got hooked in Ithaca, having Harvard -2.5 and only getting a 2 point win.

So, 19-16-2, and most of the gains on the season given back on a rough weekend.

[digamma]

Columbia at Princeton (-7.5) gets top billing tonight. It should be a fun one. Two very good offenses coming off very good weekends. And we're just two weeks out from the OT classic these two played on Valentine's day. Princeton is just clicking right now. Columbia had a good weekend last weekend and will likely be up for the game tonight. Still I'm going to lay 7.5 and take the Tigers. Princeton 77-65.

Yale (-12) vs. Harvard. I said this before, but this is just a tough match-up for Harvard. Makai Mason is too quick at guard and Justin Sears and Brandon Sherrod are trouble for whichever Zena is not guarding. It is at Yale and I think they'll be ready to go. Sadly, I'm betting Yale, 75-59.

Dartmouth (-1) at Brown. Dartmouth blew Brown out two weeks ago. And Brown didn't look too much better last week. That said, this seems like a weird spot in the league where Brown comes back and wins a game this weekend, if not getting a sweep. I'm going with the mini-upset and taking the Bears, 70-65.

Pennsylvania (-4.5) vs. Cornell. Cornell's back court can score with anyone. We saw them rain threes last weekend. Two weeks ago Penn won a high scoring one, 92-84 in Ithaca. I think the Quakers are playing better basketball right now. I'm going to take them by the same margin 80-72.

As a refresher, the standings going into tonight...
Yale 9-1
Princeton 8-1
Columbia 8-2
Penn 4-5
Harvard 3-7
Dartmouth 3-7
Cornell 2-8
Brown 2-8

[digamma]

Yale rolled from the start last night, running off 12 straight points to take an early 15-5 lead. It was really over when Zena picked up two quick fouls and sat for 17 minutes of the first half. Yale built their lead to 59-40 with 1:50 left. Unfortunately for the gambler in us, that's when Harvard decided to play. The Crimson went on a 10-0 run to make the final 59-50 and cover.

Princeton was scary good offensively, shooting over 60% from the field, including 13-21 from three point land. They built a double digit lead versus Columbia and the game was never in doubt. Like Harvard, Columbia chipped away a little bit in the meaningless final minutes and hit a three at the buzzer to make the final score 88-83. Two for two on bad beats.

In the undercard games, Penn got out to an early lead against Cornell and the spread never dipped below double digits. The Quakers win 79-67.

And the most exciting game of the night was in Providence. It was back and forth the whole way, with Brown first jumping out to a 10-2 lead, before Dartmouth ran off a 20-5 run to take control in the first half. The Big Green led 32-27 at the break. Brown ran off the first 10 points of the second half and maintained a lead into the final two minutes of the game. With 2:19 left, the Big Green hit a three to take a 67-66 lead. Dartmouth was able to stretch the lead to 73-69 with 27 seconds left, but Brown was not done. The Bears hit a three, and following two made free throws by Dartmouth, hit a second three to tie the game at 75. Brown got a steal and a shot at the buzzer, but it was off and we went to OT.

In OT, the teams traded baskets (or really free throws), neither team able to extend the lead. Brown took an 84-83 lead with a minute left and then got the ball back after a Dartmouth miss. They ran the clock down but missed a shot with 13 seconds left, giving Dartmouth a chance to go for the win. The Big Green got an off balance look that didn't fall and Brown picks up its third Ivy win of the season.

How is that for two paragraphs on a game between 6th and 7th place teams?

Individual stars last night included Makai Mason (Yale), 16 points, including 4-8 from three; Steven Cook (Princeton) 23 points, 5-6 from three; Steven Spieth (Brown), of the Dallas Spieths, 21 points, 4-5 from three; the "Big Hyphen" Darien Nelson-Henry (Penn), 16 points, 10 rebounds; Robert Hatter (Cornell), 31 points; and Evan Boudreaux, Dartmouth, 20 points, 10 rebounds.

Standings wise, Columbia is done and we now have a two team race. Yale is 10-1 and Princeton is 9-1. All signs point to a one game play-off. Yale has the trickier road to get there, needing to beat Columbia on the road next weekend. Princeton is on the road next weekend too versus Dartmouth and Harvard.

Tonight, the best game is probably Penn vs. Columbia. Penn is playing pretty good basketball right now. Columbia is the better team and we'll see if they can bounce back from the disappointment of last night.

Princeton can name their score against Cornell. It's just a bad match-up.

Yale gets a tired and down Dartmouth team.

And we'll see if Brown can ride the momentum of last night to end a 14 game losing streak versus Harvard.

On picks, last night, despite the two bad beats, we went 2-2 and sit at 21-18-2 for the season.

[digamma]

Picks for today...

Dartmouth +15 at Yale. This is a really close line and I'm just going with a feel that Dartmouth plays Yale tough, even after going to OT last night.

Brown +2 vs. Harvard. Taking both teams who played OT games last night seems crazy. I think there's a decent amount of value here for Brown. They should be a 1-2 point favorite at home. Harvard has looked really poor for three weeks, including in the home win over Brown and the win at Cornell (except for the last 9 minutes).

Princeton -17.5 vs. Cornell. 18 was going to be my cut off. Damn you Bovada. We're rolling with the Tigers. These teams just play a style that leads to an ugly score.

Penn +4.5 vs. Columbia. Columbia answered the bell the last time they lost to Princeton, but I don't see it this time. I think last night took a lot out of them.

[digamma]

What if I told you your team shot 41% from the field, took 26 3 pointers and shot 7-16 from the free throw line for a total of 61 points? What if I then told you your team won relatively easily 61-52 and never trailed in the game?

That's what happened in Providence. Harvard controlled a really, really ugly game. Brown shot 30% from the field, including 5-19 from three.

It's really disappointing to see a team actually get worse during the season. I know I've mentioned this before, but this team took Oklahoma and Kansas to the wire. Coming back from Hawaii at Christmas, they looked like they were primed for the Ivy season. Now they sit at 4-8 in Ivy play, and can maybe get to 5-9 with a split versus the Ps next weekend.

Of course, I'm happy to lose the emotional hedge bet and glad to see a win. Just frustrating to see where this team is right now.

In Princeton, the Tigers got up by 21 after a sluggish first half and then quit again at the final media time out to only win by 14. Come on Penn and Dartmouth in the late games.

[digamma]

Wow. We very nearly had the first real upset of the Ivy League season last night. Dartmouth played Yale to the wire and hit a three pointer to take the lead 62-61 with about 17 seconds left. On Yale's possession, Dartmouth got a steal, but only hit one free throw to make it 63-61. Makai Mason came down and hit a 17 footer to send the game to OT. Yale won a free throw contest in overtime to escape.

Columbia showed real toughness in answering the bell against Penn. They're out of it for the conference race, unless miracles happen, but maybe they are playing themselves into NIT discussion.

So a 1-3 picks night, puts us just better than a coin flip, 22-21-2.

Standings heading into the final full weekend.

Yale 11-1
Princeton 10-1
Columbia 9-3
Penn 5-6
Harvard 4-8
Dartmouth 3-9
Brown 3-9
Cornell 2-10

Next week the Ps travel to Harvard and Dartmouth and the Cs host Yale and Brown.

[digamma]

Originally Posted by digamma

Another Friday night...

Yale at Princeton (-3)
Detailed pretty much above. The only thing that has changed is that it appears Jack Montague, Yale's captain and starting off guard, will miss the weekend and may be off the team. They played well without him last week. Everything I look at from a numbers perspective says take Princeton, though I have a weird feeling that Yale wins. Officially, I'm going to stay with the numbers and take Princeton.
[/b]

I'll post this without comment because I really don't know the story, but you can read the explanation regarding Montague's leaving the Yale team.

http://yaledailynews.com/blog/2016/0...r-controversy/

[digamma]

Not a ton of new information here, but this Yale thing is turning a little ugly. Jezebel and others have picked it up. And any time there are even murmurs that your league leading team is thinking of walking out before its final game of the season, well, that's not good.

Controversy over Yale basketball team’s support of Jack Montague erupts on campus – Ivy Hoops Online

[digamma]

Yale -12 over Cornell, in spite of controversy.
Columbia -14 over Brown.
Princeton -7 over Harvard.
Dartmouth -4.5 over Penn.

[britrock88]

Just looking at the box score, but Yale appears pretty motivated tonight.

[digamma]

Yes, plus I think Cornell is done. They don't match up well with teams who actually play defense.

Let's go Crimson!

[digamma]

A funny thing happened on the way to a one game Yale-Princeton playoff.

Harvard played like the team most thought they could be last night and beat Princeton 73-71. The Crimson led from the start and built an 8 point lead at the half behind a strong inside game. (At the half, the Crimson had only shot three from long range, making 2.) Princeton was cold shooting in the first half, but came out on fire in the second. They quickly went on a 12-3 run to take a 47-46 lead. From there it was back and forth, with the Crimson edging ahead and the Tigers reeling them back in. It felt like we were headed to another Princeton miracle.

Princeton took the lead 69-68 with about a minute left. Harvard ran an excellent offensive set and found Zena underneath for a layup and a foul. He actually hit the free throw to put the Crimson up 71-69. Princeton was able to tie it on a lay in with 31 seconds left.

Harvard isolated for the hero of the night Patrick Steeves (more on him in a bit), who drove and was fouled with seven seconds left. Steeves hit both free throws and then got a block on the other end to preserve the win.

A great way to salvage something from a disappointing season for Harvard. For Princeton, it is a devastating loss. No road trip is easy in the Ivies, but Princeton had only to navigate the Harvard and Dartmouth trip and beat Penn at home. They looked completely distraught at the end of the game--as you might imagine.

For Harvard, Patrick Steeves had 25 points on 9-13 shooting. I'm not sure how much I wrote about him earlier in the thread, but before the Hawaii trip, he had played four minutes of basketball in his entire Harvard career--and he's a senior. He had missed two full seasons due to injuries and was an end of the bench guy for one. He's come on this season to average about 10 a game and be a guy who Harvard can turn to in a pinch.

Xena appeared back scoring 16 and pulling down 14 rebounds. There has been speculation that he has been continuing to play through his injuries that kept him out of the first games against the Ps.

Tonight is senior night for the Crimson against Penn. Win and get to a somewhat respectable 6-8. More importantly, win and I'll feel a lot better about where the team is than I did last weekend.

As an aside and things go the way people expect, if this were next year, the Penn-Harvard game tonight would be super meaningful. The two teams would be playing for the fourth spot in the Ivy League tournament.

[digamma]

Elsewhere, Columbia held on for a narrow 66-63 win over Brown.

Yale dominated Cornell 84-63.

Dartmouth beat Penn 72-64.

Those results put our picks at 2-2 and keep us just above .500 for the season.

[digamma]

Tonight the game is simple.

If Yale wins at Columbia, they win the Ivy League title and go to their first NCAA tournament in more than 50 years. If they lose to Columbia, which is quite possible, then Princeton must beat Dartmouth tonight and Penn on Tuesday to force a one game playoff.

I expect Yale to be about a one point favorite at Columbia and Princeton to be about a 7 point pick over Dartmouth.

[digamma]

I took Columbia +2, Harvard -6 and Dartmouth +9.5.

There wasn't a line on the Brown-Cornell battle for the basement when I checked this morning and then I didn't get back in front of a computer until after that started. I'd probably have taken Brown.

[digamma]

Congratulations to Yale!

The Bulldogs took care of Columbia in convincing fashion tonight, 71-55. It seems like they really rallied around themselves after a controversial week and a scare last Saturday night versus Dartmouth. They will likely be a 12 or 13 seed and whoever they play should be frightened. Justin Sears is a terrific college basketball player and I'm happy that he will get a chance to play in the tournament.

Elsewhere Harvard curb stomped Penn and Princeton did the same to Dartmouth. This weekend was the Harvard team we expected to see during the Ivy season.

Cornell squeezed past Brown to tie them for 7th place.

1-2 tonight on picks, leaves us exactly at .500 for the season. It all comes down to a meaningless Penn-Princeton game on Tuesday!

[britrock88]

Yale it is!

[britrock88]

Do you have any thoughts on Harvard's huge recruiting class?

[digamma]

Many.

In the next few days I'll tackle that, but yes it could be really special.

[digamma]

Final game of the regular season.

Penn versus Princeton in what is mostly meaningless. If Princeton wins, they would keep slim NCAA bubble hopes alive and solidify a bid to the NIT. But other than that, the most intrigue is whether Penn ties Harvard for 4th place.

Princeton is a 16 point favorite. Princeton's last four wins have all been by double digits. In all four they've been ahead by more than the spread with ten minutes left in the game. In all four they were outscored in the final ten minutes and in three of those games it cost them the cover.

So, I refuse to go out with Princeton subbing in its water boys for senior night only to blow a cover. Give me the Quakers!

[digamma]

I'll do a wrap up later this week and then do some stuff following the tournament teams. Yale will go to the dance. Princeton likely to the NIT. Columbia will go somewhere, and there's an outside shot Harvard will go somewhere as well.

But britrock asked about next year, so let's talk about that for a minute.

Princeton returns everyone. They will be the favorite and likely receive votes in the top 25 to start the season.

Harvard returns Zena, Tommy McCarthy and Corey Johnson, plus getting Siyani Chambers back. In addition, Harvard has the #10 recruiting class in the nation. Yes. You read that correctly. There are three top 100 recruits, two front line guys in Robert Baker and Chris Lewis and winger Seth Towns. Bryce Aiken is also a highly touted point guard. Plus there are three other guys who would be very good Ivy League recruits in a normal year.

The fight for minutes will be ugly, though we've seen highly ranked big guys struggle in the Ivy League early. Zena and Chris Egi are two examples. Zena has come into his own, but he was a end of the bench guy as a freshman. If one of the bigs can play serious minutes and Towns is as good as advertised, this team can compete with Princeton.

And if those two teams are as good as people think, #TwoBidIvy will get some serious traction.

Yale loses Sears and Sherrod, and even though Makai Mason is a stud, it probably will not be enough to keep the Elis at the top of the league.

Columbia loses Lo and Rosenberg. They have good depth, but you don't lose those two and compete for an Ivy title.

Dartmouth could ascend behind Boudreaux, at least to the top half of the league.

Cornell will score points, and Matt Morgan may set all sorts of individual scoring records, but they can't stop anyone.

Penn will likely continue to improve under Steve Donahue.

Brown is a contender for the basement.

All in all, the league will be significantly improved with every team other than Brown, maybe, either having a guy who can take over a game or enough depth to be a really improved squad.

It will be fun to watch again. Still no word on whether we have a 14 Game Tournament or a Four Teamer at the end of the year.

[digamma]

Originally Posted by digamma

So, I refuse to go out with Princeton subbing in its water boys for senior night only to blow a cover. Give me the Quakers!

With 14 minutes left Princeton led by 18. Final: Princeton 72, Penn 71.

We finish the season at 26-25-2. Decidedly mediocre. But we nailed that last one!

[digamma]

And it is done.

The Ivy League Adds Men's, Women's Basketball Tournaments Beginning in 2017 - Ivy League

[digamma]

Confirmation today that Montague was expelled for sexual misconduct.

[digamma]

The All-Ivy team was released yesterday.
First team:
Justin Sears, Yale
Henry Caruso, Princeton
Maodo Lo, Columbia
Brandon Sherrod, Yale
Makai Mason, Yale

Second team:
Zena, Harvard
Cedrick Kuakamensah, Brown
Evan Boudreaux, Dartmouth
Matt Morgan, Cornell
Darien Nelson-Henry, Penn
Spencer Weisz, Princeton
Grant Mullins, Columbia

Player of the Year: Justin Sears
Rookie of the Year: Evan Boudreaux
Defensive Player of the Year: Agunwa Okolie, Harvard
Coach of the Year: James Jones, Yale

Can't really argue with any of those. Four of the first team spots were locked in since game one. Pre-league season, most would have predicted Zena to be the fifth, but he got injured and had a stretch of rough games before coming back to dominate the final weekend. And I'm really pleased Okolie was recognized as defensive player of the year.

[digamma]

Originally Posted by digamma

Original Prediction

In November, on an Ivy message board, I submitted the following standing predictions:

1. Princeton
2. Columbia
3. Yale
4. Harvard
5. Dartmouth
6. Brown
7. Cornell
8. Penn

I picked Justin Sears as player of the year and Corey Johnson from Harvard as rookie of the year. I picked Spencer Weisz, Maodo Lo, Alex Rosenberg and Makai Mason to join Sears on the first team All Ivy team.

Revised Predictions

With about 12-14 games under teams' belts, my thoughts have changed some. As noted, I think Yale is the favorite heading into league play. I think Columbia has the most questions of the top four, especially with Rosenberg possibly still being injured. So, my revised top 8:

1. Yale
2. Princeton
3. Harvard
4. Columbia
5. Cornell
6. Penn
7. Dartmouth
8. Brown

POY: Justin Sears

All Ivy: Sears, Zena Edosomwan, Henry Caruso, Maodo Lo, Makai Mason

ROY: Evan Boudreaux

Actual Standings
1. Yale (13-1)
2. Princeton (12-2)
3. Columbia (10-4)
4. Harvard (6-8)
5. Penn (5-9)
6. Dartmouth (4-10)
7. Brown and Cornell (3-11)


Looking back at my predictions...

I was right heading into the Ivy campaign that Yale was the favorite. They controlled the league, and outside of the loss to Princeton, the first game against Brown and the Dartmouth scare, they really weren't tested. If I am a 4 or 5 seed, I would not want to see them opposite me in the NCAA tournament.

Princeton was probably even better than expected. Except for the slip up against Harvard, they were every bit Yale's match. As noted a few posts above, they return everyone. Next year could be a big one for them, as they try to get back to their first NCAA tournament since 2011.

Columbia beat everyone they were supposed to beat, stole one early in the season at Harvard, but they couldn't get past Princeton and Yale. They weren't really close in either Yale game. They should have beaten Princeton at home, but blew leads in regulation and overtime. Next year is a transition year as they lose Lo, Rosenberg and Grant Mullins. Fun team to watch, but I think Lions fans wanted more.

I'm still not sure what to make of the Harvard season. They came out of the holiday tournament playing as well as Yale, Princeton and Columbia and had played the toughest schedule in the league. That should have steeled them for Ivy play, even though they were the least experienced of those three. Instead they got beaten up and wilted some. The Crimson righted the ship some at the end going 4-1 to end the season. That gives hope for next season.

Penn outperformed expectations. They lose the Big Hyphen (Nelson-Henry), but as Steve Donahue continues to implement his system, I'd put a BUY recommendation on the Quakers.

Dartmouth also has some good things ahead. Boudreaux has a chance to be a Justin Sears-like player if Dartmouth can fill some holes around him. Of course, the rest of the league is getting better too, so we'll see.

Cornell will be really fun to watch. Morgan will light it up. They've got a lot of places around him where they need to get better though.

Brown loses Kuakamensah and is probably the one team where there's not a whole lot to look forward to next season. (Now they'll probably have a top half finish.)

[digamma]

Yale draws Baylor in the NCAA tournament.

I think it's an interesting match-up. Not surprisingly, Yale is getting a little play as a 12 seed upset pick. I think they'll show up as about a 3-4 point underdog in the game, which is great for a 12 seed.

Sears and Sherrod can match Baylor's two bigs. Mason can play straight up at the point. It's sort of the 4-7 guys in the rotation I worry about in this game.

Princeton plays at Virginia Tech in the NIT. Virginia Tech has been playing very good basketball and Buzz Williams is a good coach. It is in Blacksburg. I expect it to be a tough one for Princeton, but we'll see.

Columbia plays Norfolk State at home in the CIT. I expect Columbia to win that one.

[digamma]

Maybe Harvard's problem is our players are spending too much time in the classroom. This is a ridiculous honor for Chris Egi. I can't even think of who won it in my class, but I know it wasn't a basketball player.

Egi Recognized with Detur Book Prize - Harvard

[digamma]

Columbia blew the doors off of Norfolk State last night.

Princeton fell behind, but then took the lead vs. Virginia Tech and looked in control. Then they literally threw the game away (threw away an inbounds pass with little pressure) and lost in overtime.

Yale tips off against Baylor at 2:45 Eastern today. The line is +6 and there's some value on Yale there.