2019 MLB Thread

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I'm so tired of Yankee fans acting like every other baseball team/ city is a second class operation.

My favorite Yankee fan story is from a few years ago. A guy called into WFAN arguing that being a Yankees fan was harder than being a Pirates fan because the Yankees normally win, so losing is so much harder for them to endure while the Pirates always lose so fans never feel disappointed.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Nate Silver with a new idea to fix baseball. I actually like it a lot in theory, but I would imagine the players' Union would have kittens about the lost relief pitcher jobs.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

Nate Silver with a new idea to fix baseball. I actually like it a lot in theory, but I would imagine the players' Union would have kittens about the lost relief pitcher jobs.

A max number of pitchers on a roster is something I've felt MLB needs to look at.

He's correct. The core issue is the number of pitchers you can get away with carrying on a roster today plus the changes to the DL which further inflate that number. Teams are essentially carrying 14-15 pitchers on a 25 man roster right now.

I would be 100% all in on these changes or something similar.

[molson]

And everybody seems to support increasing the roster size, which is bizarre to me (unless it's accompanied by strict pitcher-usage rules).

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

Nate Silver with a new idea to fix baseball. I actually like it a lot in theory, but I would imagine the players' Union would have kittens about the lost relief pitcher jobs.

Anybody that actually appreciates baseball ought to have kittens about such horseshit.

It starts out nice & reasonable ... and then slides downhill at an alarming pace.

Want fewer strikeouts? Groom better hitters. Or stop trying to field 9 Dave Kingman's.

My God, "major league pitching" is already bordering on misnomer but the answer to that isn't bizarre limitations designed to cater to the fucking short attention span crowd, it's to perform badly needed contraction.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Anybody that actually appreciates baseball ought to have kittens about such horseshit.

It starts out nice & reasonable ... and then slides downhill at an alarming pace.

Want fewer strikeouts? Groom better hitters. Or stop trying to field 9 Dave Kingman's.

My God, "major league pitching" is already bordering on misnomer but the answer to that isn't bizarre limitations designed to cater to the fucking short attention span crowd, it's to perform badly needed contraction.

I feel like this is the best way to curb the absurd usage of relievers while leaving the on-the-field product completely intact. It increases tactical decision-making at the same time. It also seems to address your criticism of the watering-down of Major league pitching; this would literally cut the number of roster spots dedicated to pitchers by 132 league-wide.

I figured this would be something you could actually get behind

[Lathum]

I wish people would stop trying to "fix" baseball, it is fine the way it is. Like anything else, you either like it or you don't.

I don't buy the "baseball is dying" crap. I am watching a spring training game right now, the stadium is packed with people standing behind the outfield fences.

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I wish people would stop trying to "fix" baseball, it is fine the way it is. Like anything else, you either like it or you don't.

I don't buy the "baseball is dying" crap. I am watching a spring training game right now, the stadium is packed with people standing behind the outfield fences.

You're right. No matter of 'fixing' is going to change whether or not people want to watch it. Baseball is baseball. Change it too much and the people that like it will stop watching it too. See NASCAR.

[cuervo72]

I'm fine with it. Scale back specialization a bit. Make pitchers actually be able to pitch more than an inning.

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

Fair, but his defense isn't exactly inspiring over multiple years as well, if I remember correctly.

as a nats fan...hes been Many Ramirez bad out there for years...hes a 1B for a couple years until he has to DH

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

as a nats fan...hes been Many Ramirez bad out there for years...hes a 1B for a couple years until he has to DH

No, he's not. He may not be a good OF, but he's not at the "1B trending to DH" stage yet. What is he, 26? He's an OF (wherever he ends up) for at least another 6-7 years.

[JPhillips]

Joey Votto owns the strike zone.

Votto swung at three of every four clear strikes in 2018; he swung at one in every 20 clear balls. When a pitch was clearly within the strike zone, Votto was nearly 15 times as likely to swing as when it was clearly out of the strike zone.

That's incredible. The difference between Votto's "clear strike" swing rate and his "clear ball" swing rate wasn't just the biggest in MLB, it was more than twice as good as the next-best hitter.

https://www.mlb.com/news/joey-votto-...ate-discipline

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Anybody that actually appreciates baseball ought to have kittens about such horseshit.

It starts out nice & reasonable ... and then slides downhill at an alarming pace.

Want fewer strikeouts? Groom better hitters. Or stop trying to field 9 Dave Kingman's.

My God, "major league pitching" is already bordering on misnomer but the answer to that isn't bizarre limitations designed to cater to the fucking short attention span crowd, it's to perform badly needed contraction.

Agreed that part of the issue is teams and players being more accepting of strikeouts for hitters, but a proposal to actually make teams use fewer pitchers per game would seem to be a solution that takes baseball back somewhat to how it was beforehand. The more teams focus on data and analytics the more obvious it is that pitchers get worse the 2nd and 3rd time through a lineup, and pitchers can throw much harder when they know they'll only be going an inning (and likely not pitching the next night.)

Even a decade ago, having more pitchers than players on an active roster would've been considered heresy, but it'll soon be the norm, at least in the AL.

[kingfc22]

13 yrs. $330M for Bryce to Philadelphia. Supposedly no opt outs so that will be an awful contract towards the end

[Vince, Pt. II]

13 years is just...wow.

[cartman]

Trout is gonna get a $500 million deal

[bhlloy]

Interesting (and poignant) article on José Fernandez in the Athletic today about whether he’d have got 400 million. But yeah, the Trout deal is going to be nuts.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

13 yrs. $330M for Bryce to Philadelphia. Supposedly no opt outs so that will be an awful contract towards the end

But it's also supposed to be front loaded. If it's down to 20 mil or less for the last few years that won't stop the Phillies from signing anyone even if his production is s bad they cut him.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

But it's also supposed to be front loaded. If it's down to 20 mil or less for the last few years that won't stop the Phillies from signing anyone even if his production is s bad they cut him.

I saw on twitter that Harper will make more than the median household income of Philly every time he comes to the plate.

[tarcone]

Dont forget the year of no contracts around 2020 when there is a work stoppage.

If that contract is front loaded, its not a bad contract at all.

[tarcone]

Originally Posted by panerd

I saw on twitter that Harper will make more than the median household income of Philly every time he comes to the plate.

Kind of disturbing

[cartman]

And when Philly is done paying Harper after 13 years, the Mets will still be paying Bonilla.

[Lathum]

The annual deferred payments to Bobby Bonilla actually worked out quite well for the Mets | For The Win

In case you don't want to read the article, the money they saved by deferring that year they were able to trade for Mike Hampton. He pitched them to the World Series that year. Then when he signed with Colorado the Mets received a compensation pick, that they used to take David Wright.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Lathum

The annual deferred payments to Bobby Bonilla actually worked out quite well for the Mets | For The Win

In case you don't want to read the article, the money they saved by deferring that year they were able to trade for Mike Hampton. He pitched them to the World Series that year. Then when he signed with Colorado the Mets received a compensation pick, that they used to take David Wright.

I've always felt a little iffy when people use draft pick outcomes to argue for the wisdom of a strategy - I think Boston drafted Jackie Bradley Jr with the comp pick for losing Johnny Damon, but they also picked Henry Owens like 3 picks prior, so is it really a better move because JBJ was picked with the official draft choice and not Owens?

The financial stuff was also pretty interesting. I remember seeing financial analysis saying the Mets came out far ahead due to the return they were getting on the Wilpon's investments... but then it turned out that was an artificially high rate of return due to Bernie Madoff cooking the books. Either way, yeah it's more of a funny footnote than an actual big mistake by the Mets once you understand how investing and deferred payments work.

[Logan]

The Bonilla contract is also not the only one that's been structured like that but for some reason is the only one trotted out as a joke multiple times a year.

[miami_fan]

I always thought it was because it was Bobby Bonilla and the Mets that made it a story as opposed to anything to with the contract itself. I don't know if it was the Mets still paying Dave Magadan or say the Pirates still paying Bonilla that it becomes the joke.

[tarcone]

What is Max Muncy of the Dodgers going to do this season?

Was that a one year fluke? Or is he a 30 HR guy?

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by Logan

The Bonilla contract is also not the only one that's been structured like that but for some reason is the only one trotted out as a joke multiple times a year.

Shoot, I wanna say there were even multiple contracts like that on the Mets that year.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by tarcone

What is Max Muncy of the Dodgers going to do this season?

Was that a one year fluke? Or is he a 30 HR guy?

I don't think "30 HR guy" has the meaning it once did, in the launch angle era.

Better question is whether Bellinger in the OF and Muncy at 1B is the most productive lineup the Dodgers will be able to trot out there.

[tarcone]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

I don't think "30 HR guy" has the meaning it once did, in the launch angle era.

Better question is whether Bellinger in the OF and Muncy at 1B is the most productive lineup the Dodgers will be able to trot out there.

Good point. They almost have to go that way when they dumped a bunch of OFers.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

I don't think "30 HR guy" has the meaning it once did, in the launch angle era.

Well, there were still only 25 of those in the majors last year. And just 14 others who were 35 HR guys.

But would you prefer .975 OPS guy? 5th best in the majors last year (if he'd had enough PA to qualify).

I mean, isn't that really what the question is? Even if he declines 10% vs last year he's still a top 20 slash player.

The problem is whether the decline is only 10%.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Well, there were still only 25 of those in the majors last year. And just 14 others who were 35 HR guys.

But would you prefer .975 OPS guy? 5th best in the majors last year (if he'd had enough PA to qualify).

I mean, isn't that really what the question is? Even if he declines 10% vs last year he's still a top 20 slash player.

The problem is whether the decline is only 10%.

Right. I'm just saying that HR as a counting stat, even if he's in the upper echelon there, doesn't mean a ton. OPS (or OPS+) as a measure of his productivity, yeah, I'd lend that more weight than HR.

The good news is, he's always had an eye for the strike zone, so the OBP half of the equation should be pretty resilient.

[tarcone]

It looks like he is playing 2B. Makes that slash line even better.

[BishopMVP]

Single (July 31) trade deadline in place this year, rosters expanded to 26 (max 13 pitchers) and reduced in September to 28 (max 14 pitchers) next year.

MLB does have the option to unilaterally impose a 3-batter minimum next season, though they had that option for a pitch clock this year and tabled it.

Sources -- MLB, union agree to 1 trade deadline

[Young Drachma]

LOL. The July 31st trade deadline makes sense from a consistency standpoint, but I always appreciated the quirks of August and September trades for things like Tim Raines and Tim Raines Jr. being able to play together for a bit.

Not sure these changes are going to make an appreciable difference, and I get not wanting teams to bring up a bunch of guys in September, but do we seriously think 40-man rosters were killing wild card races?

[tarcone]

Owners throwing the payers a bone before they strike with the 26th player

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by Young Drachma

Not sure these changes are going to make an appreciable difference, and I get not wanting teams to bring up a bunch of guys in September, but do we seriously think 40-man rosters were killing wild card races?

It was inconsistent, was the thing. The more well-heeled teams basically were able to double the size of their bullpens, while lower-revenue teams would basically only be calling up a couple dudes at best anyway.

And then, of course, having the extra 10 arms in the bullpen meant just a parade of relievers in the month of September.

So, I mean...28 might be overkill, but coming down from 40 was probably the right move.

[stevew]

If we are getting a pitcher maximum, can we please define what a pitcher is and make sure that Ohtani counts as a pitcher once he’s healthy again.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by stevew

If we are getting a pitcher maximum, can we please define what a pitcher is and make sure that Ohtani counts as a pitcher once he’s healthy again.

Otani would qualify as a two way player. As he has the requisite number of innings and at bats.

[tarcone]

I find it interesting that people complain about the length of games and baseball tries to cut time. All while trying to increase offense, which slows the game down.

[miami_fan]

Sources - Angels, Trout near $430M extension

[SackAttack]

And this is where I point out that while the clueless pundits will claim that the Harper and Machado contracts mean free agency isn't broken after all, one of the greatest players of all time just signed what probably amounts to a lifetime contract rather than deal with the fuckery of teams going "nah, I don't really need one of the best players in the game unless they're willing to play for below market value."

Harper and Machado got theirs, eventually, but this was after industry talk about them potentially being $400 million players turned into "well they won't even get $300 million unless they're willing to play in San Diego and Philadelphia."

Trout's been breathlessly talked about as a $500 million guy for a few years now, and while this deal might just mean that playing in Anaheim > playing "at home" on a comfort level, it might also be Trout and his representation going "hey it's still the largest extension in baseball history, let's not risk teams engaging in a third (or fourth?) offseason of fuckery in two years."

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

And this is where I point out that while the clueless pundits will claim that the Harper and Machado contracts mean free agency isn't broken after all, one of the greatest players of all time just signed what probably amounts to a lifetime contract rather than deal with the fuckery of teams going "nah, I don't really need one of the best players in the game unless they're willing to play for below market value."

Harper and Machado got theirs, eventually, but this was after industry talk about them potentially being $400 million players turned into "well they won't even get $300 million unless they're willing to play in San Diego and Philadelphia."

Trout's been breathlessly talked about as a $500 million guy for a few years now, and while this deal might just mean that playing in Anaheim > playing "at home" on a comfort level, it might also be Trout and his representation going "hey it's still the largest extension in baseball history, let's not risk teams engaging in a third (or fourth?) offseason of fuckery in two years."

Doesn't him resigning with the Angels mean he doesn't want to win championships?

[Danny]

Not an Angel's fan but good to see this. And especially glad it means hes not going to Philly

[Chief Rum]

I'm probably the most notorious Angels fan here. So of course, I'm beside myself with joy.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

And this is where I point out that while the clueless pundits will claim that the Harper and Machado contracts mean free agency isn't broken after all, one of the greatest players of all time just signed what probably amounts to a lifetime contract rather than deal with the fuckery of teams going "nah, I don't really need one of the best players in the game unless they're willing to play for below market value."

Harper and Machado got theirs, eventually, but this was after industry talk about them potentially being $400 million players turned into "well they won't even get $300 million unless they're willing to play in San Diego and Philadelphia."

Trout's been breathlessly talked about as a $500 million guy for a few years now, and while this deal might just mean that playing in Anaheim > playing "at home" on a comfort level, it might also be Trout and his representation going "hey it's still the largest extension in baseball history, let's not risk teams engaging in a third (or fourth?) offseason of fuckery in two years."

MLB FA is clearly broken, but I don't think Machado and Harper are the best examples. Both were demanding outrageous $$$ and had pretty big warts. Trout and (unfortunately for Red Sox fans) Mookie Betts seem like much safer bets. Harper has 5+ WAR in only one of his seven seasons, Trout has put up 6.9 in all 7 of his, and 8.3+ in 6 of those. Machado is 5+ in 4 of his 6, but tops out at 6.6 which isn't in the stratosphere Trout and recently Betts are living in, plus he had his pretty disturbing comments during the playoffs that would give me a lot of pause if I was guaranteeing him money 10 years down the line.

If you compare baseball to basketball, DeMarcus Cousins saw money drying up and signed a 1 year prove it deal with a team he wanted to play for instead of sitting out through preseason and yelling why isn't anyone paying me X per year like Craig Kimbrel is doing. No question the teams are taking advantage of arbitration rules, but so many of these players also aren't adjusting their salary demands to what the market is saying. A max number of years (5?) per contract would seem to make a lot of sense next CBA as part of the concession for having less arb control and letting players reach FA earlier - either way there will be a section of players who kind of get screwed because they don't get to the market earlier and a glut of younger players show up when they do hit FA.

[JPhillips]

The Reds getting Dietrich and Iglesias on minor league deals is a better indicator of how FA is broken.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

why isn't anyone paying me X per year like Craig Kimbrel is doing.

Kimbrel (and/or his agent) look like some of the biggest assclowns I've seen in sports in a while. You'd have to be completely fucking insane to pay their asking price at the length they want for a guy who has been less effective year by year for several seasons now.

It doesn't mean he's awful, it just means he's not worth that sort of financial commitment.

[tarcone]

Its called free agency for a reason. It is a free market and the prices follow suit.

You are dumb if you dont just re-sign. The way teams are built, or can be built these days, 31 year old FAs are worthless.

[miked]

I don't know what people mean by less effective. In 2017 he posted his best WHIP and K/9 since his 2nd year or so. I had no idea he had been that dominant. But that's rich for a reliever. If BOS is willing to pay him 13M per, is 15-16 that crazy?