POTUS 2024 - Harris vs Trump - General Election Discussion

[JPhillips]

Trump's numbers are inflated by people who are pro-Trump but haven't voted in the past few elections. He needs to turn those folks out, but closing all of the RNC offices isn't going to help with that.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Trump's numbers are inflated by people who are pro-Trump but haven't voted in the past few elections. He needs to turn those folks out, but closing all of the RNC offices isn't going to help with that.

This shaping up to be a weird election and it's going to be interesting to see how accurate the polling is. Polling nationally in 2020 was pretty accurate but way off in some states. I've seen some recent polling that shows exactly what you're saying here. Biden is showing a rather large lead with people that are known voters.

[JPhillips]

RFK Jr's defense of his time with Epstein isn't helpful.

"…I ran into everybody in NY. I mean, I knew Harvey Weinstein, I knew Roger Ailes, I knew -- O.J. Simpson came to my house. Bill Cosby came to my house.”

[Ryche]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

RFK Jr's defense of his time with Epstein isn't helpful.

Considering what he did to his second wife, none of those names are a surprise.

[Lathum]

Haley got 155k votes in the PA primary yesterday. That can’t be a good sign for Trump.

[Ghost Econ]

I'm more interested in how this thread will explain that it's actually worse for Biden.

[albionmoonlight]

It certainly isn't good for Trump.

But protest votes in primary elections tend to come home in the general. Once these Haley voters have had to endure 5 months of "Remember, Biden has a D next to his name" ads, they'll end up voting Trump.

[Ksyrup]

I'd love to see an honest breakdown of how many of those 155K people voted for Biden in 2020.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

You're the one cheerleading for this POTUS candidate.

lol at the timing of this after what's transpiring today at college campuses.

[Edward64]

From 538.

https://abcnews.go.com/538/trump-lea...y?id=109506070

Specifically, as of April 25 at 9 a.m. Eastern, our national polling average shows 40.9 percent of likely voters would support Biden if the election were held today, while 41.6 percent would support Trump.

But there's considerable uncertainty in those numbers.

To communicate this, we are also publishing uncertainty intervals for our horse-race averages for the first time.
:
Right now, that interval shows that Biden's support could be anywhere between 39.4 and 42.2 percent, while Trump’s range is from 40.3 to 42.8 percent.

So in other words, a long ways to go yet.

[RainMaker]

New swing state polls dropped.

���� US election poll

Wisconsin

Trump: 48%
Biden: 44%

Arizona

Trump: 49%
Biden: 42%

Georgia

Trump: 49%
Biden: 43%

Michigan

Biden: 47%
Trump: 45%

Pennsylvania

Trump: 47%
Biden: 46%

North Carolina

Trump: 51%
Biden: 41%

Nevada

Trump: 51%
Biden: 43%

(Bloomberg)

— The Spectator Index (@spectatorindex) April 26, 2024

[Brian Swartz]

This Is Fine.

[flere-imsaho]

Biden was up 6 in national polling on Trump on April 27, 2020.

I'm perfectly willing to be wrong here, but those numbers seem like ceilings for Trump and floors for Biden.

[thesloppy]

Noem has Old Yeller'd herself out of the VP discussion, yes?

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

Noem has Old Yeller'd herself out of the VP discussion, yes?

I don't think she was under serious consideration, but that's probably the final straw for her.

I think the pick all along was going to be someone low key and willing to do the dirty work on policy, etc while Trump makes headlines. Tim Scott or Donalds are the favorites IMO. Noem isn't low key and doesn't seem to interested in policy either.

[RainMaker]

I still think it'll be a woman, albeit one who is quiet. There is no chance they nominate a closeted gay black man as VP.

[Swaggs]

I keep wondering what step 2 is for Noem here. I assume she was trying to promote her gun ownership and NRA cred, but good lord does it make zero sense to brag about killing a dog.

[RainMaker]

Fascists are weird people and say and do weird things that they think others find normal.

[JPhillips]

I always thought Noem is too camera thirsty for Trump. He hates dogs, though, so this is obviously aimed at trying to appeal to him. She can be hated by everybody so long as he picks her. Like all of the VP hopefuls, she wants the job desperately because she's sure Trump is going to die in office.

[Edward64]

Pretty funny. Personally, I don't get it but it is what it is.

CNN Poll: Trump maintains lead over Biden in 2024 matchup as views on their presidencies diverge | CNN Politics

Assessing Biden’s time in office so far, 61% say his presidency thus far has been a failure, while 39% say it’s been a success. That’s narrowly worse than the 57% who called the first year of his administration a failure in January 2022, with 41% calling it a success.

Considering all the handouts & pork he's given out, this is pretty atrocious ROI.

Where the heck are all the charging stations, infrastructure stuff, rural internet connectivity etc. If they are out there, Mayor Pete sure is doing a crappy job of bragging about it.

In the new poll, 60% disapprove of his handling of the job and 40% approve, about the same as it’s been in CNN polling for more than a year. Even Biden’s strongest issue approval ratings in the poll are also in negative territory, with 45% approving of his handling of health care policy and 44% approving his handling of student loan debt.

I can see this. Personally, he hasn't done much for me on health care or student debt.

And his worst issue approval rating – for his handling of the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza – yields 28% approval to 71% disapproval, including an 81% disapproval mark among those younger than 35 and majority disapproval among Democrats (53%).

This is a tough one. Go for the younger votes or hold fast.

What matters to the Dems & Republicans.

Among Democratic-aligned voters,

• protecting democracy (67%),
• abortion (54%),
• the economy (52%),
• gun policy (51%) and
• health care (49%)

while on the GOP-aligned side, it’s the

• economy (79%),
• immigration (71%),
• crime (65%) and then
• democracy (54%).

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I keep wondering what step 2 is for Noem here. I assume she was trying to promote her gun ownership and NRA cred, but good lord does it make zero sense to brag about killing a dog.

To me, it's squarely in the narrative of the "we're real Americans from the country and none of you liberal coastal elites would get it" thing the GOP has going on. She just (maybe) took it a little far. I say maybe because all of the "conservative" pundits who are shelling her on twitter are the same people who have been booted from the GOP over the past 8 years. They don't matter to today's Republican party.

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Fascists are weird people and say and do weird things that they think others find normal.

Trump made it OK for people to say whatever they want, wherever they want, not matter how vile, crude, or simply misjudged it is.


I give it a day before someone is calling her "authentic" for this, which is indeed what she's already doing in her defense:

I can understand why some people are upset about a 20 year old story of Cricket, one of the working dogs at our ranch, in my upcoming book — No Going Back. The book is filled with many honest stories of my life, good and bad days, challenges, painful decisions, and lessons learned.

What I learned from my years of public service, especially leading South Dakota through COVID, is people are looking for leaders who are authentic, willing to learn from the past, and don’t shy away from tough challenges. My hope is anyone reading this book will have an understanding that I always work to make the best decisions I can for the people in my life.

The fact is, South Dakota law states that dogs who attack and kill livestock can be put down. Given that Cricket had shown aggressive behavior toward people by biting them, I decided what I did.

Whether running the ranch or in politics, I have never passed on my responsibilities to anyone else to handle. Even if it’s hard and painful. I followed the law and was being a responsible parent, dog owner, and neighbor.

As I explained in the book, it wasn’t easy. But often the easy way isn’t the right way.

Of course, the real story should be that she's apparently so terrible with guns that she couldn't kill a goat in one shot at point blank range and had to go back to her truck to get more shells.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Trump made it OK for people to say whatever they want, wherever they want, not matter how vile, crude, or simply misjudged it is.

I give it a day before someone is calling her "authentic" for this, which is indeed what she's already doing in her defense:

Agree on Trump. I think the difference is that Trump is actually entertaining. He has a weird charisma and can be funny. The other fascists just come across weird and don't understand what makes Trump unique.

You also nailed it. The precise word "authentic" is used in her response. Nice call.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Where the heck are all the charging stations, infrastructure stuff, rural internet connectivity etc. If they are out there, Mayor Pete sure is doing a crappy job of bragging about it.

It's because the bill put the onus on the states to implement them and most states haven't even started soliciting bids to install them. You're building a nationwide network with 48 states all having to build them separately but also meet the national standards required.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

I'm perfectly willing to be wrong here, but those numbers seem like ceilings for Trump and floors for Biden.

Looks to me more like Biden is just doing worse this time around.

Originally Posted by Edward64

Where the heck are all the charging stations, infrastructure stuff, rural internet connectivity etc. If they are out there, Mayor Pete sure is doing a crappy job of bragging about it.

Most people aren't going to vote on that stuff. This would be a better nation if they did, but they don't.

[miked]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

It's because the bill put the onus on the states to implement them and most states haven't even started soliciting bids to install them. You're building a nationwide network with 48 states all having to build them separately but also meet the national standards required.

Also, most of the red state-type places want this to fail. Nothing gives these southern republicans more wood than saying how much electric cars have failed and will never be useful (that and controlling women's bodies). I think they would prefer coal-powered cars just because..AMERICA! Seriously, people down here vote down light rail because they are afraid of the poor people coming to their neighborhoods. When I lived up north, I never saw hoards of gangs on the train from Montclair back to the city or Newark with their spoils.

Even if the feds paid for the rail and gave GA the revenue and it created a million jobs, they would say no.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

It's because the bill put the onus on the states to implement them and most states haven't even started soliciting bids to install them. You're building a nationwide network with 48 states all having to build them separately but also meet the national standards required.

As far as I can tell, you just have to drive to Meijer in Lexington and spend an hour tooling around the store while your car recharges. That is, if it's not winter when you might not make it to Meijer before your battery dies.

EV has a really bad narrative right now. I say "narrative" because I don't own one and am only going off of things I've been told by people I know (like friends and neighbors) and stories in the news (like the Ford CEO who admitted to a "reality check" trying to drive his EV pickup across country).

I had considered one for my next car, which I'm guessing will be no earlier than 2026. But now, I'm probably only interested in a hybrid, if that. I drive an hour both ways to work twice a week. No way am I interested in voluntarily adding the stress of possibly needing to juice up just to get home from work in January/February. They're going to have to make some big strides to improve things to change minds. And I consider myself pretty open-minded about EV, but from what I read/been told, it can be a big hassle depending on your use case.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by miked

Also, most of the red state-type places want this to fail. Nothing gives these southern republicans more wood than saying how much electric cars have failed and will never be useful (that and controlling women's bodies). I think they would prefer coal-powered cars just because..AMERICA! Seriously, people down here vote down light rail because they are afraid of the poor people coming to their neighborhoods. When I lived up north, I never saw hoards of gangs on the train from Montclair back to the city or Newark with their spoils.

Even if the feds paid for the rail and gave GA the revenue and it created a million jobs, they would say no.

The light rail part is true. Georgia fights any kind of public transit for blatantly racist reasons. But there isn't a governor Democrat or Republican that loves electric cars more than Governor Kemp. He has championed the opening of multiple EV plants in the state, including car and parts manufacture. As for charging stations, they are going up everywhere around me, and I would be a little surprised if the backwater butt-hole of the metro area is leading the charge (pun intended) on them. We already had the ones at Target in Conyers that are rapid chargers, but we also have the city of Covington put in multiple rapid charger along with a compressed natural gas station in the new Town Center area. They are also just finishing 12 Tesla charging stations right behind the QT on the next entrance down from Town Center. It seems like every new business parking lot has a couple put in. They are becoming more and more common.
I already mentioned a friend who has had an EV a couple of years. They love it. They have traveled around the bit in it, not cross country but around the South for sure, and he said it really hasn't been that hard finding charging stations. At times you have to plan ahead because rapid chargers can be harder to find, but the car has a built in app to help you find places.

[cuervo72]

They do seem to have a bit of a "oh, this is too hard - I'm not going to bother" new tech stigma. And of course plenty of folks who want to beat it down.

My wife would be ok with a hybrid I think -- she's worried about long trips, like the one we take every couple of months out to Indiana. For regular about-town travel, I think one would be fine - her drive to work is like 2 miles, and I don't drive to work anymore (the Veloster mostly just sits). For us it's mostly just "holy !!! who can afford a new car?" I mean, we should be able to (our combined income is certainly not bad), we just have many other things to pay for. So we've bought used, and it only seems like now that EVs are emerging in the used market.

A coworker has a Tesla, and a college friend had one a while ago (don't know if he still has it). The former I know had a charging plug/station put in in his garage.

[Swaggs]

I want to be green and embrace the technology, but it just doesn't make sense for our lives given our location. I will definitely be getting hybrids with our next round of cars, but living in (relatively) small town WV, I don't drive far enough on a regular basis to justify the expense. My morning and evening commute of dropping and picking up my youngest and going to and from work is less than 3 miles total. My wife now works from home like 95% of the time and if we travel any distance it will be outside the range of most EVs and I feel like it would be a pretty big inconvenience to stop to charge.

If I still lived in NC, I think I would probably consider owning one EV because my commute was close to 100 miles round trip per day and then keep one hybrid, larger vehicle to do trips in.

[JPhillips]

Interesting data on how RFK Jr could hurt Trump.

We finally got a poll on how RFK Jr.'s vaccine views could play in 2024.

-Half of Republicans are unfamiliar with them. 4 in 10 Dems are unfamiliar.

-When informed about them, the % of Republicans who say they'd consider RFK nearly doubles.

-The % of Democrats who say they'd…

— Aaron Blake (@AaronBlake) April 30, 2024

[JPhillips]

dola

A shame both of them are the same.

Personally I think this sounds very bad. https://t.co/sU74j3yF3P pic.twitter.com/i8TxdTXxGa

— Matthew Gertz (@MattGertz) April 30, 2024

[GrantDawg]

Ah, let's give him another chance. What's the worst that could happen?

[Lathum]

But Biden is old and likes ice cream.

Lots of peoples faces are going to be eaten by leopards.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Lathum

But Biden is old and likes ice cream.

Lots of peoples faces are going to be eaten by leopards.

There is the whole genocide thing.

[RainMaker]

At least the Senate is looking good.

Latest Emerson polls

Arizona �� Trump +4
Michigan �� Trump +1
Nevada �� Trump +1
Pennsylvania �� Trump +2
Wisconsin �� Trump +2

Arizona �� Gallego +2
Michigan �� Slotkin +2
Nevada �� Rosen +8
Pennsylvania �� Casey +4
Wisconsin �� Baldwin +3

— umichvoter ��️‍�� (@umichvoter) April 30, 2024

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Ah, let's give him another chance. What's the worst that could happen?

The best case scenario would be him sleeping through 4 years like he is his trial.

He now sits in court with a meaningless stack of papers to go through and can't be left alone by his own attorneys during sidebars because he falls asleep if left on his own for 5 minutes.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

There is the whole genocide thing.

In a Trump Administration, the genocide will be much closer to him, so at least you'll be able to see it up close. Who knows, you might actually take up arms and try to do something about this one!

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

In a Trump Administration, the genocide will be much closer to him, so at least you'll be able to see it up close. Who knows, you might actually take up arms and try to do something about this one!

You'll be able to go back to pretending genocide is bad if he gets elected instead of defending it. Just like all the other bad stuff Trump did that suddenly wasn't an issue when a Democrat took office.

[RainMaker]

Shouldn't the anger be with Biden who would probably win by just not giving a genocidal far right government billions to commit genocide? Beating Donald Trump should not be hard.

[Brian Swartz]

I don't think that issue is going to move the needle much on Biden winning or not.

I'm not saying it shouldn't, I just don't think it will. Look at the list of important issues to people in both parties, one example being the recent post by Edward64. Israel/Gaza, and for that matter Ukraine, does not rank highly for most people. They're more concerned with domestic issues like gas prices being 25 cents higher than they 'should be'.

[RainMaker]

Those issues rank incredibly high for the Biden administration.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

I don't think that issue is going to move the needle much on Biden winning or not.

I'm not saying it shouldn't, I just don't think it will. Look at the list of important issues to people in both parties, one example being the recent post by Edward64. Israel/Gaza, and for that matter Ukraine, does not rank highly for most people. They're more concerned with domestic issues like gas prices being 25 cents higher than they 'should be'.

I agree with you, foreign policy is not a sustainable Top-5 issue. Sure, it heats up but other more pressing stuff happens. I do think this is a vocal minority, and in 1-2 years it'll peter out and regulated into the Social Studies books like Occupy Wallstreet, BLM, and defund the police protests.

But I can see the younger folks cutting off their "nose to spite their face". I can easily see another flareup in Sep-Oct. I doubt they'll vote for Trump, but they may not vote or vote for a third party, and therefore diluting Joe's margin.

I'll say again. I support people's rights to vote third party. But if Trump wins, they cannot absolve themselves from helping Trump win by not voting for Joe.

[Brian Swartz]

That last part I disagree with. The people helping Trump win are the people actually supporting him (voting for him, donating, making arguments in favor of him, etc). Not supporting him by voting for someone else means exactly that.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

There is the whole genocide thing.

Keep fucking that chicken as if the guy who wants a full Muslim ban is going to be a champion of the rights of the Palestinians.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

That last part I disagree with. The people helping Trump win are the people actually supporting him (voting for him, donating, making arguments in favor of him, etc). Not supporting him by voting for someone else means exactly that.

How about this ...

I'll say again. I support people's rights to vote third party. But if Trump wins, they cannot absolve themselves from not helping Joe beat Trump which resulted in another 4 years of Trump as no other third party is viable

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Keep fucking that chicken as if the guy who wants a full Muslim ban is going to be a champion of the rights of the Palestinians.

I'm not voting for Trump. Take it up with the people who are or the candidates who somehow lose to him.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I'll say again. I support people's rights to vote third party. But if Trump wins, they cannot absolve themselves from helping Trump win by not voting for Joe.

Why would someone vote for a candidate who clearly doesn't want their vote? These are candidates, not lords. This isn't a serfdom you desire.

As with all elections, candidates choose their voters. We shall see how their decisions turn out in November.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Why would someone vote for a candidate who clearly doesn't want their vote?

In the real world, candidates want anyone that votes for them, even from people that disagree with them.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Edward64

In the real world, candidates want anyone that votes for them, even from people that disagree with them.

Biden's thing has been to tell people to vote for the other guy. He's been doing it since he got into politics. How do you know so little about these people?

Biden tells voters 'don't vote for me' if they're concerned about his age | Fox News

Joe Biden tells immigration activist, 'You should vote for Trump'

Biden tells Des Moines activist 'vote for someone else' in tense exchange

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Biden's thing has been to tell people to vote for the other guy. He's been doing it since he got into politics. How do you know so little about these people?

Biden tells voters 'don't vote for me' if they're concerned about his age | Fox News

Joe Biden tells immigration activist, 'You should vote for Trump'

Biden tells Des Moines activist 'vote for someone else' in tense exchange

You continue to live in a different reality from me.