Who has your vote as of 7/19/16

[tarcone]

I guess so if you really think that. Im sure Trump had nothing to do with his speech. Probably paid some schmuck a couple mil to put some cool words on a piece of paper and away he went.

I guess we should run speech writers for political office.

[Groundhog]

I doubt it was a couple of mil, but everything else - sure.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Trump got my vote after his speech last night.
Im tired of more of the same. Be it Republican or Democrat. Clinton and the other 16 knuckleheads from the primary are all one in the same. Liars, cheats and out for themselves before all else.

You might want to do a little research on this Trump guy to see if he has any incidences of lying or cheating or being out for himself.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Trump got my vote after his speech last night.
Im tired of more of the same. Be it Republican or Democrat. Clinton and the other 16 knuckleheads from the primary are all one in the same. Liars, cheats and out for themselves before all else.

Trump comes across as someone who is out for me. He isnt an insider. He isnt more of the same.

I loved what his daughter said in her intro speech :Im not a Republican or a Democrat, Im an American."

Which leads me to the big reason. Put America First. Ive always had leanings towards isolationism. And this globalism that has raced to the forefront is tired to me. Im ready to put my countries interests before all others.

Im ready for an "outsider".

If I recall correctly we are both teachers in west St. Louis county so technically Hillary Clinton would be a vote in our best economic interests.

[Neon_Chaos]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Trump got my vote after his speech last night.
Im tired of more of the same. Be it Republican or Democrat. Clinton and the other 16 knuckleheads from the primary are all one in the same. Liars, cheats and out for themselves before all else.

Trump comes across as someone who is out for me. He isnt an insider. He isnt more of the same.

I loved what his daughter said in her intro speech :Im not a Republican or a Democrat, Im an American."

Which leads me to the big reason. Put America First. Ive always had leanings towards isolationism. And this globalism that has raced to the forefront is tired to me. Im ready to put my countries interests before all others.

Im ready for an "outsider".

And this is the same line of thinking why Duterte rose to power in my country and why the Brexit occurred.

I can see the appeal, but better the devil you know.

[JAG]

Comparing this poll to the 5/19 one:

New Trump voters: 10 (9 did not previously vote, 1 from GJ)
New Hillary voters: 28 (25 did not previously vote, 1 from Other, 2 from not voting)
New Gary Johnson voters: 18 (11 did not previously vote, 2 from H, 3 from Other, 2 from not voting)
New Other voters: 6 (4 did not previously vote, 2 from not voting)
New 'Not going to vote': 10 (10 did not previously vote)


Small numbers so hard to make sweeping conclusions, but interesting that H lost some voters to GJ whereas T did not (in fact gained 1 from GJ). H pulled a little away from 'not going to vote for either' and 'other', which could be a result of a few different factors (if those folks want to speak up as to why, we could make it a certainty).

Change in votes from last poll:

T - +3 raw (-1.33%)
H - +14 raw (-1.00%)
G - +15 raw (+8.53%)
O - +2 raw (+0.07%)
N - -4 raw (-6.29%)

Gary Johnson had a good couple months at FOFC.

[cuervo72]

Seriously. Trump has been in the public eye for 40 years. When has he ever been known to be out for anyone else? Who over those 40 years has craved attention or self-aggrandized more than Donald Trump? All of a sudden, at 70, he's doing this for you? Not buying it.

[Subby]

I would be pretty happy with four more years of President Obama, to be honest. I think the country is in decent shape and we just need to keep the religious fundamentalist assholes at bay to make sure we stay that way.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Trump comes across as someone who is out for me.

On one hand you've got his speech.

On the other hand you've got 50 years of evidence of his business practices, which more-or-less tells the opposite story.

Even if Trump actually wanted to improve the lives of everyday Americans it's a) abundantly unclear as to whether he knows how to do this, especially as he's outlined no concrete policy proposals and is consistently wrong on how the government actually works and b) whether the policies he'd actually pursue would achieve the somewhat-nebulous goal of "Making America Great".

I mean, would scrapping trade deals and going all protectionist really help the average American? Historical evidence says no.

[tarcone]

Im not sure school choice is truly a viable option. I have about 8-12 years left in my career. I dont see a bunch of charter schools popping up or students jumping to other districts. It just isnt financially possible for these things to happen.
Look what happened to the districts that took the Normandy students. It became too much of a financial burden for the districts that took them in.

Until there is a way to equally fund schools, it is going to be difficult to have school choice. And rich districts are not going to allow schools to be funded equally.

[tarcone]

Or we go with the same ol', same ol'. Has that really been effective?

Here is the real question, is my life better then 4 years ago? 8 years? 12 years? 16 years?

No its not. I make less money then I did last year because the cost of living increased and my wages did not. Im stuck solidly in the middle of middle class. Every year my insurance costs go up, food prices go up, etc. etc.

What/who do I blame? The federal government and politicians that do nothing but hand out entitlements to the rich and the poor. Corporate welfare and welfare in general, are equally bad.

Im looking for someone to go in and stir shit up. Maybe Trump isnt the answer. But Im not on board for more of the same with HRC. Who in my opinion is a lying, cheating, manipulative bitch, that will stop at nothing to make sure she is taken care of.

Is Trump that way? I guess. But he hasnt put a nation at risk with his dealings. Will he do that? Not any more than HRC will. And has proven that she will put the nation at risk.

I would never have voted for HRC. And was thinking hard at GJ. Im ready for a 3, 4, 5 party system. But, unfortunately we are stuck with what we have.

To me, and this is my opinion, which in the end is the one that counts most to me, Trump is an outsider that is going to go in and kick ass and take names.

But I cant predict the future and maybe he will be more of the same. If so, at least, or hopefully, we get an almost even split on the Supreme Court and not a 6-3 libreal advantage.

[TCY Junkie]

Originally Posted by Subby

I would be pretty happy with four more years of President Obama, to be honest. I think the country is in decent shape and we just need to keep the religious fundamentalist assholes at bay to make sure we stay that way.

After about 200 years of a democracy people start to vote for people who gives them free stuff. That's when things start to crumble. Things will probably still be fine until after your death so it is good news for you.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by tarcone

To me, and this is my opinion, which in the end is the one that counts most to me, Trump is an outsider that is going to go in and kick ass and take names.

But I cant predict the future and maybe he will be more of the same. If so, at least, or hopefully, we get an almost even split on the Supreme Court and not a 6-3 libreal advantage.

So you're not going to hold Trump to the same standard that you hold HRC to. She has a very vast public service record that you're able to look at, disagree with and point to the problems that you have with her. Conversely, Trump has no public service record, which you really like, that makes him an unknown and a loose cannon, which you also like.

You have to go to his business record, the way that he deals with groups, small businesses, partners, cities to determine if he meets your standards for leadership. Trump has shown that he flaunts current laws, fails to pay small business owners, aggressively pursues lawsuits against small defendants who cannot afford to stand up to him. Is willing to drain plaintiffs via the legal system. When he fails to come through with promises that he says he will do, he deflects blame to others, never takes responsibility, and again uses the legal system to get out of obligations in contracts that he signed.

He has a long history of double dealings, has been rumored to have significant dealings with the mob.

The short of it is that he is a bully, who has no concern for the greater world outside of the umbrella of the Trump name. In his world there is no upside of success for the greater community if he isn't getting his.

Many Trumpettes respond to outlandish Trump statements like extorting money from smaller NATO partners with the phrase, "I don't think he'll do that." Why not? It seems to me that supporters cherry pick what they think he'll do and what they don't think he'll do to fit their own narrative.

[Atocep]

I don't get the outsider thing with Trump. The guy has been in and around wall street for decades and has been schmoozing with the political elites the entire time. He's proven time and time again that he'll say whatever it takes to get the attention of whatever group he's currently pandering to. The fact that people have someone twisted that into him being anti-establishment and an outsider blows my mind.

This is the guy that created a scam college. The guy has lied on over 60% of his claims on the campaign trial. This is a guy that has donated over $100,000 to Hillary's campaigning over the years.

The scariest thing to me is that Trump believes global warming is a hoax and believes vaccinations should't be mandatory. I'm sorry, but those 2 things are far more dangerous than anything people have put on Hillary.

What/who do I blame? The federal government and politicians that do nothing but hand out entitlements to the rich and the poor. Corporate welfare and welfare in general, are equally bad.

Which is going to continue under Trump because his economic plan is to reduce taxes for the top 1% by 15-20% and the lowest income levels would get a 1% break. The average break would be 7%. That along with his plan to lock federal minimum wage at $7.25 means the breaks for the rich and the reliance on welfare for the poor is unlikely to change. Trump wants the same tickle down economics that have never worked.

[tarcone]

I guess Im not going to hold him to the same standard. Not now at least.

To me, in the world of politics, HRC is a known quantity. And Trump isnt. Is he a shady businessman. Sounds like it. But he has been successful in that world.

But I know what Clinton is. And I dont like it. I dont like where our country has gone. And I dont want it to go in the same direction.

So my choice is to go with the outsider. The one person who isnt a career politician. Maybe it will be a disaster. But I think Trump is smart enough to surround himself with some really smart, hard working people and that will prevent a disaster.

[tarcone]

I like your facts, guys. I really do. And I dont doubt them.

Im going on pure emotion here. Im pissed. I am seriously considering finding one of those islands to retire. Renounce my US citenzenship and live on $100 a month.

And to me, rightly or wrongly, this is an insider vs. outsider election.

I was on the Cruz boat. Thats who I voted for in the primary. I have been on the 3rd party boat. And have voted 3rd party in the past when it was Obama vs. the same old dudes.

But I liked what Trump said. I liked what his kids said. I liked the whole convention. It struck a cord with me.

But maybe in the next few months, Trump goes back into his moderate shell again, and I lose the emotion that he is bringing out in me. Then I am back to GJ.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Is he a shady businessman. Sounds like it. But he has been successful in that world.

Not really.

Donald Trump Would Be Richer If He Had Invested in Index Funds - Fortune

What Trump didn’t say about his four big business bankruptcies - The Washington Post

A Complete List of Donald Trump’s Business Disasters


Look, anyone can appreciate his moxie. And I completely understand the motivation to get behind someone you think will "shake things up".

But there's a world of difference between electing someone whose idea of "shaking things up" is to throw shit against the wall until something sticks, all the while telling people that everything he does is awesome and someone who has a vision and a plan to actually change things.

If you want a successful businessman to run for President and shake things up, get a movement behind someone like Elon Musk or Jeff Bezos. Not someone whose sole accomplishment is parlaying his inheritance into celebrity status for the past 30 years.

[ISiddiqui]

I guess you can emotionally think that things haven't got better in the last 4-8 years, but I just look at where the Bush administration left us and think you have to be nuts not to see how well the Obama administration has done for this county and our economy.

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk

[molson]

I think the question isn't whether things have gotten better in the last 4-8 years, it's whether they would have been better if someone else was in charge. I don't think we'd be in some era of new prosperity if McCain or Romney had the reigns. There are going to be challenges for us going forward no matter who's in charge.

At this point in my life, a candidate's stated policy views don't even matter that much. I just want a grown-up in the white house who will competently respond to unexpected challenges that come up, who doesn't fuck anything up, and who isn't too extreme in either direction. So I enjoyed the Obama years (and I'm a lot better off that I was 8 years ago), and I'd love 8 more similar years with Clinton. Though I could see myself on the Sanders or even potentially the Trump train if I was younger and poorer with no job prospects and huge debt - then I'd want to everything to just be torn down or blown up.

[Subby]

Originally Posted by TCY Junkie

After about 200 years of a democracy people start to vote for people who gives them free stuff. That's when things start to crumble.

That's a broad generalization! I guess that explains the election of all those tea party jackasses over the past 8 years. And Bush. And Reagan.

[Brian Swartz]

I would be pretty happy with four more years of President Obama, to be honest.

If it wasn't for that whole term limits thing, I'd cheerfully take another term of Obama over six months of either Hillary or Trump. And I disagreed with Obama more often than I agreed with him, though he did have some moments.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by tarcone

What/who do I blame? The federal government and politicians that do nothing but hand out entitlements to the rich and the poor. Corporate welfare and welfare in general, are equally bad.

What do you need the federal government to do for you to make you more successful? Do you want handouts too?

And for someone sick of corporate welfare you want to vote for the candidate that wants to cut corporate taxes by 20% and give corporations a tax holiday to repatriate their earnings from overseas.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by tarcone

But maybe in the next few months, Trump goes back into his moderate shell again, and I lose the emotion that he is bringing out in me. Then I am back to GJ.

He just gave a speech where he shit on NAFTA and other trade agreements. He pushed for heavy regulation on business. That's the stuff union leaders usually talk about speaking at the DNC. I don't think he's the conservative candidate you think he is.

[JPhillips]

This is what I mean when I say people don't care about policy. There's no way to support Cruz, then Johnson, then Trump if you care about policy positions.

[RainMaker]

I just don't know how you can complain about welfare for the rich and poor but not the middle class then vote for the guy who's tax policy gives cuts to the rich and poor but not the middle class.

[tarcone]

You're right about policy. What politician truly pushes through his total package? Which one will do what they say?
I have bounced around. I guess Im looking for something that cant be had.

I need to just go into the mountains. And drop off the grid. Live my life as I choose and let the rest of you sort it out.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

I guess you can emotionally think that things haven't got better in the last 4-8 years, but I just look at where the Bush administration left us and think you have to be nuts not to see how well the Obama administration has done for this county and our economy.

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk

We now have record debt, terrorists attacks are becoming the norm for the news cycle, many people have given up trying to get work, trigger happy cops, home grown terrorists killing cops.... yeah it's gotten soooo much better.

[AENeuman]

Originally Posted by TCY Junkie

After about 200 years of a democracy people start to vote for people who gives them free stuff. That's when things start to crumble. Things will probably still be fine until after your death so it is good news for you.

You keep repeating this talking point, I think it's racist, ignorant and divisive, but I could be wrong.
So, if you please, convince me

Which demographic is activity voting for free stuff? I assume this must a very large group if they have been so successful making policy. I mean, voters not receiving free stuff must be voting against free stuff for others right?

Is getting government military contracts, change in law (like 3 strikes) and farm subsidies an example of voting for free stuff? If so, I agree, those groups are active and politically powerful voters. Maybe that's why things are so bad. Getting free stuff means massive and corrupt military waste, an anemic justice system and an amoral health approach.

Is it old people and the Prescrption Drug Act? That makes sense too, a brilliant move by Bush IMO.

On the other hand I do remember that endless loop on Fox News of a black woman cheering about her free Obama phone, I guess that is root of all your evil?

[EagleFan]

There is one choice, a choice that has a proven record, a choice that wants to eliminate the fat from government, a choice that wants to protect our freedom and strengthen our country... Gary Johnson

Trump is a joke, a psychotic egomaniac who cares only about himself.

Hillary is criminally unqualified, I wouldn't want her leading me to my seat at a theater.

[molson]

If someone could point me in the direction of free stuff that'd be great.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by molson

If someone could point me in the direction of free stuff that'd be great.

Ah, you must be a Sanders supporter...

[tarcone]

Originally Posted by molson

If someone could point me in the direction of free stuff that'd be great.

If you find out, tell me.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by AENeuman

You keep repeating this talking point, I think it's racist, ignorant and divisive, but I could be wrong.

And built on a made up quote with literally zero historical examples.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

We now have record debt, terrorists attacks are becoming the norm for the news cycle, many people have given up trying to get work, trigger happy cops, home grown terrorists killing cops.... yeah it's gotten soooo much better.

Unemployment is low, markets are at the highest point ever, and we're still the most prosperous country in the most prosperous time in human history.

Justifiable homicides aren't really any higher than they were decades ago (especially when you factor in population increases) and killing of police officers is much lower than it was in the past (take a look at the numbers during prohibition).

I mean there are things to complain about and things I'm upset about. But things are really not that bad. Sure if you're listening to cable news all the time we're on the verge of a revolution, but most people have it pretty good.

[wustin]

Utah poll:

Trump - 29
Hillary - 27
GJ - 26

Trump winning Utah converts, but he has a long way to go | The Salt Lake Tribune

[EagleFan]

Gary Johnson 2016 - The sane choice

[wustin]

GJ polling that high in Utah is probably due to all of the Mormons but being pretty much neck and neck with the other two candidates is still very impressive.

[TCY Junkie]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

And built on a made up quote with literally zero historical examples.

But with the way national debt is piling up it's dead accurate.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by wustin

GJ polling that high in Utah is probably due to all of the Mormons but being pretty much neck and neck with the other two candidates is still very impressive.

He is a more Western name, he was the governor of New Mexico and polls quite well there also. The Mormons don't have much to do with it. I don't think they are a typical Libertarian voting block.

[TCY Junkie]

Originally Posted by AENeuman

You keep repeating this talking point, I think it's racist, ignorant and divisive, but I could be wrong.
So, if you please, convince me

Black people were badly treated by people and government for a long time. This lead to less education. Less ways to improve liVing standards. But the country can not afford to pay for these mistakes the way they are doing, this need to be more efficient. I do not have a solution that is less divisive. Government needs to do that. The president should have waited until more evidence comes in to jump on cops. Divides the nation. He needs to work on a solution. He was part of the government and government was part of the problem. Part of problem and blaming someone else. Sure, it's easy to blame a few cops in cities. Much easier than to find a solution to get blacks into society and there not be a significant difference in stats. Black person many times more likely to murder someone. Definite problem with getting them into a society seen as one.

[larrymcg421]

We need Bernie because he's going to give us a $15 minimum wage. Hillary is a sellout for only proposing a $12 minimum wage, so I'm voting for Gary Johnson who wants to abolish the minimum wage.

[AENeuman]

Originally Posted by TCY Junkie

Black people were badly treated by people and government for a long time. This lead to less education. Less ways to improve liVing standards. But the country can not afford to pay for these mistakes the way they are doing, this need to be more efficient. I do not have a solution that is less divisive. Government needs to do that. The president should have waited until more evidence comes in to jump on cops. Divides the nation. He needs to work on a solution. He was part of the government and government was part of the problem. Part of problem and blaming someone else. Sure, it's easy to blame a few cops in cities. Much easier than to find a solution to get blacks into society and there not be a significant difference in stats. Black person many times more likely to murder someone. Definite problem with getting them into a society seen as one.

I agree with most of this. However, I just don't see how this relates to your repeated assertion that since Civil Rights/ Great Society African Americans have demanded through their votes the government take care of them. Thus, creating lazy, entitled generations that have lost respect for cops and American values.

[wustin]

Originally Posted by panerd

He is a more Western name, he was the governor of New Mexico and polls quite well there also. The Mormons don't have much to do with it. I don't think they are a typical Libertarian voting block.

Mormons are constitutionalists, Trump and HRC are like the exact opposite of what they believe in. I wouldn't be surprised if Mitt Romney eventually does a discreet wink-wink/nudge-nudge in favor of GJ.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by TCY Junkie

But with the way national debt is piling up it's dead accurate.

No.

The debt is still manageable and U.S. Treasuries are still the gold standard globally. We're fine.

And if we aren't we can always raise taxes a little seeing as how they are still lower than the post-WW2 average.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

No.

The debt is still manageable and U.S. Treasuries are still the gold standard globally. We're fine.

And if we aren't we can always raise taxes a little seeing as how they are still lower than the post-WW2 average.

I'd rather we fix the debt now instead of waiting until it becomes truly unmanageable.

[JPhillips]

I'm generally opposed to a structural deficit, although the idea that the world needs the investment opportunity of U.S. bonds is interesting. I really don't think we should worry about paying down the debt in any substantial way as that will cause quite a few problems both at home and abroad.

We could solve the deficit pretty quickly with some mix of spending cuts and tax increases, but the GOP currently won't budge.

[Flasch186]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

No.

The debt is still manageable and U.S. Treasuries are still the gold standard globally. We're fine.

And if we aren't we can always raise taxes a little seeing as how they are still lower than the post-WW2 average.

Im shocked by the hyperbole sometimes about the impending doom coming from the debt. Those that use debt well, win IMO. I cant stand the whole debt argument like we're always on the precipice of some cliff when its just untrue.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

No.

The debt is still manageable and U.S. Treasuries are still the gold standard globally. We're fine.

And if we aren't we can always raise taxes a little seeing as how they are still lower than the post-WW2 average.

Trillions is manageable? I would hate to see your finances. Obama has put us in a hole larger than the grand canyon.

[JPhillips]

And yet inflation is low, the dollar is strong, people and countries still flock to U.S. Treasuries, and unemployment is low.

My finances don't look nearly that good.

[PilotMan]

US Debt as a function of US GDP is a little less than 13 months worth of income.

U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time

My own personal debt is roughly the same, maybe a little bit more than that.

Yes, it has the potential to get out of hand, especially in economic downturns, like we saw with the Great Recession. That being said, as long as GDP continues to grow at a good clip and the rest of the economy stays strong and steady it's not nearly the concern that many fear that it is.