Ping degenerates / game theorists - intriguing gambling situation

[QuikSand]

NEW GAME

This week's confidence-style pick-em pool... easy slate this week, no real upsets, and several of us in play with perfect slates going into MNF. There's a weekly prize, worth winning (it's $100 I think)...

So, setup is... pick all 16 games, confidence scoring (weight by your belief), and you can change your pick on the fly.

So, what is the best approach for me... with my MNF pick?

Here's the relevant scoring setup:

PTS WT Name
133  1 Mike W-something (missed his 2 point pick)
133  1 Steve the Enigma (missed his 2 point pick)
130  4 Actual Ravens Guy (missed his 2 point pick)
128  8 Tony the Cop
126 10 QuikSand your hero
122 14 Mark the Asshole

So... with that setup, what's my play?

ASSUMING everyone picks New Orleans, if they win I split the prize 3 ways. And if they lose, Mike W/Steve win the week. I don't know whether to game-theory it too deeply, but it seems to me the two-way tie prevents this from being a no-brainer for the current leader to fade the favorite? But they still should, right? And the guy in striking distance with 130 points, he should...play Vegas too?

Anyway... if I alone switch to LV and they win, then I score 136, and nobody splits with me unless they also gamed the system here. Sounds appetizing.

So... the most likely outcome seems:
-win with NO for $33
-win with LV for $100
...but there's substantial uncertainty about the split/nosplit here, it seems.

What do you say? Do I try to go it alone in pursuit of the $100? Would sure hate to find that one or both of my perfect-slate rivals also did so. But this case isn't as clear, to me, that just one person needs to game theory it.

[albionmoonlight]

I think that LV has to be your play there.

With enough people bunched up, I think that more than a majority of them will go with the "just pick the favorite and see how it shakes out" theory.

I think that the odds of LV giving you a better split are worth it.

Also, this is New Orleans without Mike Thomas vs. Vegas at home. This isn't Chiefs vs. Jets.

Go Raiders.

[QuikSand]

...also, to be honest, with the prize here being a mere 100/33 bucks, I have to weigh the merits of "fuck you, I outfoxed all you fuckers" as a meaningful part of the outcome here. If I get 16/16 from an all-chalk entry and split it with other cowards who did likewise, meh. If I zag when they zig, and pull it off and take all the loot, then it's double middle finger time, baby.

Yeah, I think that's the play.

[albionmoonlight]

Also, doing that (zigging/zagging double middle finger style) with the Raiders just feels sweeter. This isn't like ride or die with the fucking Jaguars, you know?

Al Davis would approve.

[QuikSand]

Update: picks are in, I'm confirmed as the only one with a Vegas win leading to a perfect slate. $100 ride or die. Just Win, Baby.

[stevew]

raiders looking good in preseason.

[albionmoonlight]

Baller.

[Toddzilla]

dat Big Quik Energy

[QuikSand]