Werewolf XLVIII - The horror of sorcery hill (Game over)

[Passacaglia]

Student checking in.

[Poli]

Student, yo. Mercy, there's a lot of reading to do.

[Alan T]

This should have been posted in the day 1 start post, but wanted to make sure everyone understand you may also vote No Kill for the day too. If the majority votes no kill, then no kill will occur this day.

[Alan T]

Also in the ingredients listed in the rules, Holy water has been renamed to Spring water. The properties of the ingredient or any recipe it is in has remained unchanged, only the name was changed.

[Izulde]

Student here and I have noo idea what my item does.

[Barkeep49]

Our choices to sleep are the library, great hall, kitchen, or storeroom?

[Barkeep49]

In some ways I think revealing what our ingredients are, before we know what they do, is beneficial, in that the bad guys won't know what they should lie about having. As such I'll start off and say that I have soured milk.

[hoopsguy]

How do people feel about volunteering info up?

I've got a name that makes me think I got sand kicked in my face in the wizard schoolyard.

I've got an item, but I'm not sure that full disclosure on this stuff makes sense yet. I'm hoping that some discussion emerges with people giving pros/cons on whatever position they establish on this point.

[Swaggs]

Checking in real quick. I am a student of the hill.

I still need to read over the rules in the first few posts.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

How do people feel about volunteering info up?

I've got a name that makes me think I got sand kicked in my face in the wizard schoolyard.

I've got an item, but I'm not sure that full disclosure on this stuff makes sense yet. I'm hoping that some discussion emerges with people giving pros/cons on whatever position they establish on this point.

That's real lame hoops. I'd expect you to be giving pros or cons. Especially as I already gave the pro I see: it's not known how items combine so let's start figuring out who has what now so we can combine to make things good for the villagers when it becomes known what we're looking for.

[Swaggs]

I'm with Barkeep on this one.

I have some mushrooms.

Does anyone think there is anything to be gained from revealing our names?

[Lathum]

got my role, need to read the rules

[Poli]

I'm out for the night and most of the day, I'll be back sometime in the afternoon. Heading to Hannibal's hospital (some friggin' 2.5 hour trip one-way) for about 3-4 hours of work and then heading back home.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

That's real lame hoops. I'd expect you to be giving pros or cons. Especially as I already gave the pro I see: it's not known how items combine so let's start figuring out who has what now so we can combine to make things good for the villagers when it becomes known what we're looking for.

You know I'm going to have pros/cons - I just figured it would be interesting to see what other people are thinking.

My concern with full disclosure is that the bad guys are going to learn stuff as well. And they are going to be able to communicate with each other about their findings and selectively share information with us. So if we reveal a full roadmap of our items, they can pick and choose who to eliminate that have threatening items to them (potentially unbeknownst to the good guys).

That's the downside. I think it is pretty clear that we need to communicate with each other, but I'm not sure that a full reveal at the outset is the best way to do this. I would rather have someone reveal how to build an item that has usefulness and then see if we can choreograph our movements around getting it constructed - either publicly or privately.

I'm generally a guy who favors the free flow of information. I just think that, based on my interpretation of the rules so far, this may not be an optimal strategy this game. We already have three people who have revealed their items. I agree that there is equal lack of info right now, but I worry that those people may be putting a target on themselves by the start of Day 2.

[Lathum]

I think revealing names shouldn't be an issue.

Mine is Ardkis.

As for items I am more of a fan of keeping things private for the time being.

I also think we should vote no kill for at least a night until we can get a handle on tthe whole spell making thing

[hoopsguy]

I'm a hair concerned about revealing names as well. In some magic cultures names have meaning and power. I think our collection of mages qualifies as a magic culture. So I'm going to hold off on stating my given name for a little while longer, just in case Alan put this angle in the game. Nothing in the rules to suggest he did, but the theme certainly supports this notion.

[LoneStarGirl]

I think I am going to wait and see how the revealing names and items works out for y'all before I do it.

[RendeR]

Hello my fellow students! My name is Morang (is it ok to announce names?) I love this place and will do whatever I can to assist us in routing the eeeevil from the school =)

I agree with the transfer of informaion, but we really ought to be careful about WHAT we share openly..as someone said, it gives the bad guys a real edge there.

If a majority thinks its a good idea I will share with you the items I have.


*DOH I need to refresh the page before I post!!*

[ntndeacon]

I got my role and I am on the side of good. I am going to wait at least a little while on divulging my item.

[DaddyTorgo]

VOTE HOOPSGUY

he's come out strongly against revealing pretty much anything.

First-level analysis suggests that this is because he's a wolf
second-level suggests that that's too obvious a play for a wolf so he's a villager
third-level suggests that he'd know that and could be playing it as a wolf

if he isn't a wolf it's at least a reason to put a d1 vote on someone and see, maybe it will attract some wolves.

if he is a wolf (which I don't think honestly) then booya.

vote subject to change of course, and likely will. But wanted to get the ball rolling.

[Lathum]

VOTE NO KILL

[path12]

Student checking in. Will read the rules in the morning.

[Chief Rum]

You know, the last time Alan trapped us all in a room, we were almost all wolves.

I am...a student of good.

There is too much going on here, IMO, to further screw us all up by keeping secrets that are unlikely to hurt us if revealed. Like Swaggs, I have mushrooms. Not sure what that means. Is it just a common ingredient? Or some sort of curious throw by random.org?

The good news is that both of us need not go into the library to figure out what they co do or be used in. Swaggs, we may want to coordinate our info-gathering efforts, at least on Day One. What say you?

Now, as to the Day One vote, I'm going to say something unpopular that could get me killed, because it cuts against conventional wisdom. And that wisdom says we should never let a day go by without a lynch. That said, I would advocate going with a No Kill today, even at the expense of giving the wolves an automatic head start.

Fact is, we almost always kill a villager on too little information or bad gut calls on Day One. Every now and then we get lucky and catch a wolf, but without doing an analysis, I would guess that is maybe a 20% shot in any given game, and that might be overstating the odds a bit.

Since it is clear we do get new information as the days pass, I would suggest we take the opportunity to not needlessly kill a villager for a day and see what we can turn up from a night of information and ingredient gathering and study.

I do NOT recommend we do this more than once, because we need the voting records. But I think we can do this for a day and not lose too much to sect members.

Anyone with me? Or am I signing my death warrant?

[Chief Rum]

Might as well put my money where my mouth is...

VOTE NO KILL

[Lathum]

as you can see above CR I agree with you

[st.cronin]

Vote No Kill

[st.cronin]

Eldwar checking in, sworn to uphold good. I've got beeswax.

[Alan T]

Just a reminder, please do not edit your posts. If you make a mistake, simply make a new post correcting it.

[st.cronin]

So as far as I can tell, passing items today would just be a wild guess? Might it be a good idea to consolidate some of these items, anyway?

[Passacaglia]

I'm not sure I like the idea of revealing items at this point. Only wolves know the recipes, right? If we try to combine things publicly, don't we play into the wolves hands?

[Passacaglia]

But I do like the idea of revealing names. Mine is Englther.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I'm not sure I like the idea of revealing items at this point. Only wolves know the recipes, right? If we try to combine things publicly, don't we play into the wolves hands?

What makes you think that?

[Chief Rum]

I'm heading out for the day, just so you all know. Two day job day, as usual, on Tuesdays. Good luck, everyone.

[Passacaglia]

This:

Those whom are sect members (evil players) will receive a different PM including who else is a member of the sect, the sect's winning condition (listed above), and what recipes they know at the start of the game.

[Barkeep49]

We learn very little if we do not lynch. In the long run people regret not lynching. While I think hoops has been suspicous I'm going to go with Lathum because he knows it's to the wolves advantage to no lynch.

Vote Lathum

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

We learn very little if we do not lynch. In the long run people regret not lynching. While I think hoops has been suspicous I'm going to go with Lathum because he knows it's to the wolves advantage to no lynch.

Vote Lathum

I go back and forth on this school of thought, but with veteran players, I feel like wolves know how to split their votes well enough without tipping their hands this early. When I consider that, along with the fact that we will probably lynch one of our own and lessen our numbers, I am pushing for a no vote today, as well.

Vote No Vote

[Passacaglia]

I'm leaning toward a no kill vote, too. I'm not sure what there is to regret, anyway. Do we ever learn anything from Day 1 votes?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

We learn very little if we do not lynch. In the long run people regret not lynching. While I think hoops has been suspicous I'm going to go with Lathum because he knows it's to the wolves advantage to no lynch.

Vote Lathum

of course I know that which is why if I was a wolf I would never make that suggestion.

Go back through old games, I am usualy very vocal about needing to lynch someone everyday. If I was a wolf there would be no way I would go this far out of charectuer.

[st.cronin]

No lynch on day 1 is actually worse for the wolves than for the village. I'm surprised Barkeep doesn't realize this.

[RendeR]

A NO VOTE on day 1 is definitely bad for the wolves as it almost always nabs a villager. I'm torn now because I don't want to lose a villager so I prefer a NO VOTE today, but barkeep's pressing for a lynching makes me want to vote for him.

What to do what to do....

[Lathum]

If I was going to vote it would be for Barkeep the Pass. Barkeep for pushing a lynch ( me!) and Pass for playing the "helpfull" villager role.

I also would consider hoops but if he is alive after night 2 he is likely a wolf.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I also would consider hoops but if he is alive after night 2 he is likely a wolf.

Laying the groundwork early, I see.

Not sure what I think about the no lynch idea. I usually prefer getting a record started. Also think I'll keep my name/ingredient private for now since as Pass pointed out the wolves apparently do have some recipes from the beginning. I will say it's an ingredient that hasn't been mentioned yet though.

[path12]

Dola, I think Barkeep gets way too much grief for his pushing for information early. He's entirely consistent on that stand and I think it is usually wrong to read anything else into it than the fact that is his approach and style.

[Passacaglia]

Damn you, helpful villager!!!!

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Damn you, helpful villager!!!!

damn you right to hell!!!

[hoopsguy]

It's very quiet today - wonder if it is the holiday or just people don't have a lot to say?

Personally, I hate giving away a day to the wolves with a no vote. However, I don't understand the rules of this game well enough to understand what would be a good defense for someone. "Don't kill me, I have the mushrooms?"

We don't have any context right now for making good decisions, so the move to vote would only be to try and establish voting patterns for later. Well, there is obviously the chance that we get lucky, but it is less than 20% when the wolves have a block and everyone else is operating with incomplete info. I would put it more like 10%, assuming that there are three wolves out there right now.

[hoopsguy]

My initial thought is that this would have been a fine game to introduce a Night 0. Obviously I'll have more perspective after the game on whether that would have been a good idea, but it feels like it right now.

[DaddyTorgo]

the play of hoopsguy is still interesting to me, but i shall bow to seeming conventional wisdom

UNVOTE HOOPS
VOTE NO LYNCH

[Lathum]

I am off to drive to NJ in a few minutes. With such limited information I see no reason not to hold off for now.

The drive is about 10 hours so I'll be out untill well past the deadline. I will also be quieter then usual since I'll be at the inlaws with no wireless.

For now I say no lynch for one night.

[LoneStarGirl]

I am with Barkeep. I never have thought a tie or a no vote was a good thing for the villagers. And I dont know what good it is to say our ingredent yet, but my name is Taick.