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Old 10-12-2011, 04:11 PM   #51
stevew
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As expected, the Pirates decline a 10m option on Paul Maholm. Good guy, and theoretically worth close to 10m, but I think we're perfectly capable of being bad without him.

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Old 10-12-2011, 04:23 PM   #52
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There were rumors of the Sox getting Castro or Garza earlier. However I agree that it will likely only be cash.

It would be insane to give up a quality low 20s AS caliber SS for a GM. But it is the Cubs so you never really know.

Obviously you want to give up the least amount of compensation possible but if it had to be Castro to get the deal done, I'd do it in a heartbeat. This is a long term change to the ideology that has always been the Cubs. Epstein won't have to answer to Crane Kenney or any other non baseball suits. It might work, it might not but it's probably the best "try" the Cubs have made in my lifetime as far as long term change goes. I'm not expecting anything until 2014 or so but then I'm hoping for a long term solid team. We'll just have to wait and see.
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Old 10-12-2011, 05:01 PM   #53
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This is a good move for the Cubs and for Epstein. I believe he is being underrated by Boston fans, and I am not sure he is as easily replaceable as some may think. Same goes for Francona. Do the Bosox even challenge the Yankees next year after this?

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Old 10-12-2011, 05:02 PM   #54
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Seriously, he can burn Wrigley Field down and take a shit on the Harry Caray Statue for all anyone cares. Win the World Series = Instant GOD.

I certainly thought that would be the case in Boston. I mean, for god's sake, TWO world series? Where's are the statues? Why is Francona not governor of the State? And why isn't Theo a Senator? At the very least, they both have to have jobs for life, right?

Is Chicago a kinder and friendlier baseball city than Boston? Hmm, maybe, by a little - (but only to the extent any city in America is).

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Old 10-12-2011, 05:36 PM   #55
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Yeah, the Boston media on baseball may be the biggest magnifying glass (ie, because the Red Sox own Boston, while I assume NY is split between the Yankees in baseball, with the Giants/Jets in football) in the sport, or close to it, and perhaps the worst place to leave. Has there been a superstar player or manager who has left Boston without being trashed on the way out? Nomar? Pedro? Manny (his own doing partly)? Francona?
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Old 10-12-2011, 05:37 PM   #56
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Very curious to see how the Jays attack the offseason. They seem relatively set at quite a few spots with either an established starter or a group ready to battle for the spot (like LF). But a few spots (2B, CF, DH) are open to either late season replacements or potential free agents.

Also assuming this will be the first time in 3 years they don't trade away the ace of their staff from the preceding season but that the bullpen will see an overhaul. Solidify the bullpen, a middle of the rotation starter and add another legitimate middle of the order bat and this is going to be a very dangerous team.
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Old 10-12-2011, 06:18 PM   #57
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Obviously, the Cardinals are still playing but Pujos will be the major off-season focus. I think the Cards are going to be forced into giving him a seven year contract. He has shown no signs of slowing down, but you have to think that is not a good investment. But if he does not get it from the Cards, he will get it elsewhere if that is what he really wants.

I am assuming the Cards will pickup the options on Molina and Wainwright. I would be surprised to see Jackson re-signed.

I don't see a whole lot of money left around to sign free agents, unless Pujos goes elsewhere. If Wainwright returns healthy, the rotation is all but set. If Pujos does leave, I am guessing Berkman would play first. But let's not think about that.
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Old 10-12-2011, 06:20 PM   #58
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Chicago isn't Boston. The Cubs haven't even BEEN to a world series since 1945. Posnanski says every other team around then has been to at least 2. The Red Sox had been in 6? So this is whole different animal.

Posnanski's phenomenal article on the Cubs
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Old 10-12-2011, 07:19 PM   #59
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Can we just go with "incomparable"? I mean, is there any sort of organized debate at all that anyone but Joe Posnanski is the best sports writer in America? Can anyone even name the second best?

SI
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Old 10-12-2011, 07:24 PM   #60
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Epstein is a very good GM. His problem, like what's going on in Philadelphia, is that the more money he has to spend, the more long-term issues he creates. When he took over the Red Sox, his payroll was under $100M; it's now over $160M.

To the extent he's going to come in and turn around the farm system, draft good players, beefo up the roster's depth and talent, etc., he's a fine choice. But if the Cubs are just going to open up the pocketbooks, expecting quick results from the Boy Wonder, history suggests that's not such a great idea.
This hits one of the two points I have - he has a pretty bad track record on big free agent signings, and hasn't shown great results in the IFA market (although there are some intriguing lower minors prospects now like Bogaerts), but he's done a great job at other parts - trades for elite players, drafting and player development. Boston did spend more money in the draft than almost every team until others started figuring it out ~2 years ago, but they also never picked in the top 10 where the can't-miss prospects are.

I also think that people focus too much on Theo the person (and possibly Bill James) instead of the management team of multiple (usually younger and better-educated) people the owners brought in. Jed Hoyer and Ben Cherington are the most prominent names, but there are almost certainly more there, and it's a question of just how much influence each person had. I also think, similar to Billy Beane's OBP/undervalued asset philosophy, this is an area where many other MLB teams also started catching up quickly after the initial success under Epstein - the 3 other GM's that come to mind as fitting the mold are Freidman, Anthopolous and Cherington.
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Old 10-12-2011, 07:34 PM   #61
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I think what Theo is great at is getting prospects, getting them hyped, and then trading them for established talent. The Red Sox are brilliant at this and should get a lot of credit for it. His free agent signings are pretty bad, tho.

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Old 10-12-2011, 07:51 PM   #62
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Can we just go with "incomparable"? I mean, is there any sort of organized debate at all that anyone but Joe Posnanski is the best sports writer in America? Can anyone even name the second best?

SI

On the field, the Cubs have obviously been worse, but if we're talking about the fan/media role, I think its a toss-up which fan base, on the whole, has celebrated their ineptness more, or has felt more sorry for themselves. Both have a ton of romantic/mythical/curse/etc. kind of storylines over the years. It's tough for me to compare, having grown up near Boston, but I've certainly heard more complaints about the national media being more East Coast-Centric than Chicago-Centric.

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Old 10-12-2011, 07:55 PM   #63
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I think what Theo is great at is getting prospects, getting them hyped, and then trading them for established talent. The Red Sox are brilliant at this and should get a lot of credit for it. His free agent signings are pretty bad, tho.

SI

This is what struck me looking at the article posted earlier in the thread also. His FA signings have been hit or miss at best but when it comes to being willing to trade his best prospects for impact players to keep the team among the elite, he's better than any GM I can remember.

It still makes me sick to think how good the Angels teams of the late 2000's could have been if they had just pulled the trigger on any one of those rumored blockbuster deals involving Brandon Wood when he was a top 5 prospect in baseball. Now look at what he turned into.
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Old 10-12-2011, 07:55 PM   #64
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Can we just go with "incomparable"? I mean, is there any sort of organized debate at all that anyone but Joe Posnanski is the best sports writer in America? Can anyone even name the second best?

SI

"". No doubt here. I think the world of Rob Neyer, Grant Brisbee, Rany J, Wright Thompson, Jonah Keri and others, but Joe P is numero uno by some distance.
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Old 10-12-2011, 07:58 PM   #65
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Chicago isn't Boston. The Cubs haven't even BEEN to a world series since 1945. Posnanski says every other team around then has been to at least 2. The Red Sox had been in 6? So this is whole different animal.

Posnanski's phenomenal article on the Cubs


That was a really great read.
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Old 10-12-2011, 08:28 PM   #66
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I think what Theo is great at is getting prospects, getting them hyped, and then trading them for established talent. The Red Sox are brilliant at this and should get a lot of credit for it. His free agent signings are pretty bad, tho.

SI
2003: Traded Casey Fossum (57 MLB starts the next 3 seasons) and 2 players who are still league-average pitchers 8 years later (Brandon Lyon and Jorge de la Rosa) for a 36 year old Curt Schilling with a 1-yr contract.

2006: Traded Anibal Sanchez (above-average starter when healthy) and Hanley Ramirez (no words needed) for Josh Beckett. (Technically not when Epstein was GM.)

2009: Traded Justin Masterson (above-average starter) and 2 relievers still in the minors (and probable 2012 bullpen candidates) for Victor Martinez.

2010: Traded 3 prospects for Adrian Gonzalez, one of which saw time as a 21y/o in MLB this year (Anthony Rizzo) and 1 more who will probably retain top 50 prospect status this year (Casey Kelly).

(There was also our alleged 2007 offer of Jon Lester, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson for Johan Santana which was turned down.)

The one trade you could argue produced no major league value for the other team was Craig Hansen and Andy Laroche (from the Dodgers) to the Pirates for Jason Bay, but we also gave up Manny in that swap, so it was just a weird trade. We also gave away competent major leaguers (David Murphy, Cla Meredith, Josh Bard) for 2 months of Eric Gagne and Doug Mirabelli.

Finally, throw in the plethora of ex-prospects that form the Red Sox core at this point (Lester, Buchholz, Pedroia, Ellsbury, Bard, Papelbon, Youkilis), others who are fringe major-league players with the potential to be starters (Kalish/Reddick/Lavarnway/Lowrie) and I don't see how you can say the Red Sox prospects have been overhyped as a whole, or that they've built the team by trading for established talent since Epstein took over. Acquired established talent to hopefully push them over the top, yes, but they've built as much of a core from within as any big-market team.
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Old 10-12-2011, 09:07 PM   #67
sterlingice
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Is that a comprehensive list or just cherry picking the bombs? My feel was that he was better at it, but I guess if that's the list then I've been wrong.

SI
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Old 10-12-2011, 09:12 PM   #68
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Every so often you have to give up a Hanley Ramirez so that you can oversell the Anthony Rizzo's(.242 SLG) of the world.
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Old 10-12-2011, 09:21 PM   #69
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Is that a comprehensive list or just cherry picking the bombs? My feel was that he was better at it, but I guess if that's the list then I've been wrong.

SI
I'm going off the list RonnieDobbs posted last page - The Theo Epstein years: The good, the bad and the ugly transactions - Extra Bases - Red Sox blog . I skipped over a lot of the minor trades.
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Old 10-12-2011, 09:22 PM   #70
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Prospects are overvalued by everyone (the odds of any of them meeting their full potential is slim). Is it somehow not a valid GM approach to take advantage of that market inefficiency?

Edit: I skipped a point above, nevermind.

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Old 10-12-2011, 09:23 PM   #71
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Prospects are overvalued by everyone (the odds of any of them meeting their full potential is slim). Is it somehow not a valid GM approach to take advantage of that market inefficiency?

That was my argument- if you can get your prospects hyped and then trade them for established MLBers, that is most definitely a skill and if you're a large market, and even more valuable skill. Why keep around prospects when you can trade them for an Adrian Gonzalez or Miguel Cabrera, etc

SI
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Old 10-12-2011, 09:26 PM   #72
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That was my argument- if you can get your prospects hyped and then trade them for established MLBers, that is most definitely a skill and if you're a large market, and even more valuable skill. Why keep around prospects when you can trade them for an Adrian Gonzalez or Miguel Cabrera, etc

SI

Right, agreed, I was reading some stuff out of order and got confused.
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Old 10-12-2011, 09:39 PM   #73
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Every so often you have to give up a Hanley Ramirez so that you can oversell the Anthony Rizzo's(.242 SLG) of the world.
Shurg, we'll see on Rizzo - I don't think he's a lock to make it any more so than the 6-7 other 1B he was in the top 50 with as a prospect, but he is only 21 and he put up .480 SLG in 2 pitchers leagues last year (Carolina/Eastern) and .682 in the PCL this year. Going off the best ML 1B, Miggy Cabrera broke thru at 20, and Pujols was a regular by 21, but Fielder was 22, Teixeira 23, and Gonzalez/Votto weren't even regulars until 24, He was also one of two-three really good propects traded, and outside of the rare Teixeira to Texas trade, it's rare teams hit on every prospect from a trade of that nature.
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Old 10-12-2011, 09:50 PM   #74
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That was my argument- if you can get your prospects hyped and then trade them for established MLBers, that is most definitely a skill and if you're a large market, and even more valuable skill. Why keep around prospects when you can trade them for an Adrian Gonzalez or Miguel Cabrera, etc

SI
Partially I thought you were arguing that the Red Sox were trading overhyped prospects that then didn't pan out, which was probably true back in the 80's/90's with Gammons leading the hyping, but I disagree has happened since the Epstein era started - if you were just arguing that he got them properly hyped I could see that as a skill.

The other thing is that even a team with the payroll of the Red Sox or Cubs can't survive by paying every player 10+ million - so for every Manny/Beckett/Gonzalez we were able to trade/pay for, we have to balance that out with underpaid pre-arb players - and our 2 WS titles were driven by getting all-star production of out Youkilis, Pedroia, Lester, Papelbon, Ellsbury, etc for near-minimum salaries. Since then, not only have those players aged to where they're being paid market-value, but the next wave hasn't quite come through, with only really Bard, Saltalamacchia, and the (average-below average) platoon of Kalish and Reddick in RF
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Old 10-12-2011, 11:33 PM   #75
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I also want to point out that every GM has those Free Agent signings were the player inexplicably falls off the cliff. Lackey is a prime example. He likely wasn't worth the money given to him, but he was definitely a good pitcher. No one could have seen him completely fall off like he has his last two years in Boston.

Epstein has been really good with the farm system, in establishing players to play for the team as well as prospects to trade for stars.
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Old 10-13-2011, 07:04 AM   #76
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Plenty of us thought Lackey wasn't worth that kind of money at all. He wasn't all that special the couple of years before he signed - there was a perception (OK, maybe just mine) that he was greatly aided by playing in the AL West and in that ballpark - and he didn't even throw 175 innings either year. Personlly, I was stunned they signed him for that kind of money. Made little sense to me at the time. It almost felt unnecessary, like it was overkill and they had the money, so go ahead and grab the best pitcher you can for Burnett money, just because.

I'm not saying I could see him going to a 6+ ERA, but a guy like him in that park? Asking for trouble, IMO. And then you throw in the attitude thing, which we saw glimpses of when Scoscia would pull him in playoff games. That was blown off as "competitiveness" by the commentators, but you have to imagine the Red Sox dug deeper than that. My guess is he wasn't the greatest guy with the Angels. I seriously doubt this all started in Boston.
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Old 10-13-2011, 07:05 AM   #77
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I'm not even saying the lackey thing was Theo's fault. Hell, the owners may have told him he had to give that money to someone to make a splash to counter whatever signings the Yankees made. But the Lackey thing never made sense to me.
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Old 10-13-2011, 09:26 AM   #78
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Ortiz tired of Red Sox "drama", wants to play for Yankees:

Ortiz threatening to jump to the Yankees - Extra Bases - Red Sox blog

Ya, it's just Papi being Papi, he'll go to the highest bidder (which will probably be Boston), but, it's just another amusing turn on the Red Sox off-season.
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Old 10-13-2011, 09:28 AM   #79
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The Yankees wouldn't even want him.

I'd take him back for another year at 12 or 13, but nothing long-term so I think he's gone. Although he may find his market to not be what he expects (especially with no Yankee suitors).
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Old 10-13-2011, 09:31 AM   #80
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The Yankees have no place to put him, even if they wanted him. What are they going to do, petition Bud to allow 7 DHs?
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Old 10-13-2011, 10:32 AM   #81
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Damn, this stuff is getting out of control. Definitely good fodder for jokes, though.


craigcalcaterra Craig Calcaterra
Porn and Chicken? RT @TheHappyRecap Al Leiter just admitted that there was a porn room at Shea Stadium in the clubhouse.
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Old 10-13-2011, 11:23 AM   #82
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Damn, this stuff is getting out of control. Definitely good fodder for jokes, though.


craigcalcaterra Craig Calcaterra
Porn and Chicken? RT @TheHappyRecap Al Leiter just admitted that there was a porn room at Shea Stadium in the clubhouse.

lol
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Old 10-13-2011, 11:24 AM   #83
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Is that really surprising with all the stories that came out about the 1986 Mets?

SI
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Old 10-13-2011, 11:28 AM   #84
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Damn, this stuff is getting out of control. Definitely good fodder for jokes, though.


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Porn and Chicken? RT @TheHappyRecap Al Leiter just admitted that there was a porn room at Shea Stadium in the clubhouse.

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Is that really surprising with all the stories that came out about the 1986 Mets?

SI

They probably had a cocaine room too.
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Old 10-13-2011, 11:30 AM   #85
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This is what struck me looking at the article posted earlier in the thread also. His FA signings have been hit or miss at best but when it comes to being willing to trade his best prospects for impact players to keep the team among the elite, he's better than any GM I can remember.

It still makes me sick to think how good the Angels teams of the late 2000's could have been if they had just pulled the trigger on any one of those rumored blockbuster deals involving Brandon Wood when he was a top 5 prospect in baseball. Now look at what he turned into.

Kendrick-Wood-Saunders-Adenhart

for

Miggy Cabrera

Bangs head on desk (and, bonus, Adenhart would still be alive, too)
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Old 10-13-2011, 11:39 AM   #86
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Lastings Milledge for Manny Ramirez. Later traded for Ryan Church and Brian Schneider.

Scott Kazmir for anyone we wanted. Traded months later for Victor Zambrano despite no perceived drop in value around the league.

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Old 10-13-2011, 11:54 AM   #87
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Ortiz tired of Red Sox "drama", wants to play for Yankees:

Ortiz threatening to jump to the Yankees - Extra Bases - Red Sox blog

Ya, it's just Papi being Papi, he'll go to the highest bidder (which will probably be Boston), but, it's just another amusing turn on the Red Sox off-season.

That headline is so misleading (not blaming you).
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Old 10-13-2011, 12:46 PM   #88
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If I hear one more "the Red Sox could have just not given permission to the Cubs to talk to Epstien" quip, I'm going to vomit.

It is standard practice in MLB, as it probably is in most sports, that as a courtesy teams grant permission for other teams to talk to their front office employees if it involves a promotion. If the move is a lateral one, then permission can be - and sometimes is - denied.

The Red Sox were asked by the Cubs for permission to talk to Theo Epstein for a role as GM and President of Baseball Operations - a clear promotion. The Red Sox owner was more-or-less obligated to say yes.
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Old 10-13-2011, 12:46 PM   #89
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Is that really surprising with all the stories that came out about the 1986 Mets?

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Old 10-13-2011, 12:48 PM   #90
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Charlie Samuel is a dirty man.
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Old 10-13-2011, 03:12 PM   #91
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Lastings Milledge for Manny Ramirez. Later traded for Ryan Church and Brian Schneider.
To be fair, Manny was also placed on irrevocable waivers back in 2003 and no team claimed him.

The full hatchet job yesterday in the Globe - Boston Red Sox - Red Sox unity, dedication dissolved during epic late-season collapse - The Boston Globe - nothing too surprising except for the level they went to with Francona. imo, bringing bringing up the painkillers and his sons in Afghanistan is over the line. The Herald, not to be outdone, led with a piece today blaming it all on Beckett, although other leaks (to Gammons) have suggested ownership/the front office wants to keep him around and rehabilitate his image.
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Old 10-15-2011, 12:59 AM   #92
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Crawford: Worst big-signing start ever? - Boston Red Sox Blog - ESPN Boston
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Old 10-15-2011, 01:06 AM   #93
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JWH says it wasn't ownership that leaked the smear campaign against Tito:

http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/7...-terry-francona

If so, JWH, why haven't you promised that if you DO find out who it is, they'll no longer be employed by the red sox? (not that I think he reads FOFC mind you)
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Old 10-15-2011, 01:11 AM   #94
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JWH says it wasn't ownership that leaked the smear campaign against Tito:

http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/7...-terry-francona

If so, JWH, why haven't you promised that if you DO find out who it is, they'll no longer be employed by the red sox? (not that I think he reads FOFC mind you)

I can't help but be entertained by all of this...It does seem like the owners have finally been called on the back stabbing and now they're back-peddling. Pretty good Bill Simmons article on the fallout (after the NBA stuff, which is great too - if you're interested in such things)

Bill Simmons Avoids a Few Subjects Before Making His Week 6 NFL Picks - Grantland
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Old 10-15-2011, 01:48 AM   #95
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He had an below average season in 2008 and bounced back nicely. I doubt the Red Sox ever get anything close in value to what they are paying for him but Im sure he will get back to hitting .285'sh, 15 homers, 30 steals. He seems like a confidence player and I dont think he ever was comfortable last year.

His speed is kind of a useless asset on the Red Sox. They dont run a whole lot and they really dont need a speed demon in left with that monster. Id rather have have a slower leftfielder with a cannon arm limiting some of the doubles of that wall. He only had 1 assist last year.

Last edited by jbergey22 : 10-15-2011 at 01:54 AM.
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Old 10-15-2011, 09:39 AM   #96
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JWH says it wasn't ownership that leaked the smear campaign against Tito:

http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/7...-terry-francona

If so, JWH, why haven't you promised that if you DO find out who it is, they'll no longer be employed by the red sox? (not that I think he reads FOFC mind you)

Is that like OJ looking for Nicole's murderer?

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Old 10-15-2011, 10:14 AM   #97
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Was Adam Dunn not a big signing because I would say that takes it.
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Old 10-15-2011, 03:10 PM   #98
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He had an below average season in 2008 and bounced back nicely. I doubt the Red Sox ever get anything close in value to what they are paying for him but Im sure he will get back to hitting .285'sh, 15 homers, 30 steals. He seems like a confidence player and I dont think he ever was comfortable last year.

His speed is kind of a useless asset on the Red Sox. They dont run a whole lot and they really dont need a speed demon in left with that monster. Id rather have have a slower leftfielder with a cannon arm limiting some of the doubles of that wall. He only had 1 assist last year.

.285/15/30 would be crap. fuck that
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Old 10-15-2011, 03:11 PM   #99
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Was Adam Dunn not a big signing because I would say that takes it.

Yeah, Dunn is the only one worse. Dunno why they didn't include him in the article except as a one-liner at the end.
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Old 10-15-2011, 08:27 PM   #100
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How many outs do the Tigers have to get this inning. First the third strike to Cruz and now the play at 2nd

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