GroupThink 3 - Sizing up the Kitty Hawk Flyers

[QuikSand]

Originally posted by Bee
I wouldn't mind taking a look at free agency before we decide for sure about resigning DE Emerson.

I am awaiting the TCY file that will enable us to move forward in earnest. But if you want to advance that far in your game to set a sense of what will be out there in free agency, that's fine (and within our rules).

[QuikSand]

Copying this from the previous page for simplicity's sake:

Contract demands for current “key” players:
(showing total cap cost in each year of demand)

      QB Clayton – 3.6,3.7,3.7
CUT   QB Ater – 3.6, 3.6, 4.3, 5.2
      QB Gray – 1.1

CUT   RB Farrell – 13.1, 10.3
SIGN  RB Finley – 8.5, 9.6, 10.9, 12.1

      FB Rice – 1.6, 1.6
      FB Ackerman – 1.3, 1.3

SIGN  TE Diana – 2.9, 2.3
      TE Parten – 3.1, 3.2, 3.2
      TE Wester – 2.3, 2.7

SIGN  WR Song – 8.3, 9.4, 10.8, 12.2, 13.6
CUT   WR Ramsey – 5.6, 6.6, 7.8
      WR Stanford – 5.8, 6.9, 8.4, 9.8

       T Andrews – 13.8, 15.5, 17.6, 19.7
       T Grandon – 3.2, 2.5, 3.0
       G Lash – 13.0, 9.5
SIGN   C Perry – 960, 910
SIGN   C Winters – 9.4, 9.7, 10.0
       G McCord – 7.6, 6.5, 7.4, 6.6, 7.6
SIGN   G Peterson – 730, 910
       T Zorich – 2.3, 2.8, 3.4, 3.9, 4.5, 5.1
SIGN   T Coffey - 730

SIGN  DE Martin – 8.1, 8.9, 9.9
CUT   DE Bush – 3.7, 4.3, 5.1
CUT   DE Hurtado – 3.1, 3.7, 4.5
SIGN  DT Littlehjohn – 3.7, 4.3, 4.9, 5.6
SIGN  DT Davidson – 2.3, 2.7, 3.3
      DT Shields - 2.9, 3.4
SIGN  DE Emerson – 3.6

SIGN  LB Brito – 2.8, 2.7
CUT   LB Dern – 3.3
CUT   LB George – 2.4, 2.8, 3.4
CUT   LB Ruiter – 730
CUT   LB Francis – 4.0, 4.7, 5.1, 6.0, 6.9

      CB Fuller – 9.3, 9.6, 9.9
      CB Sims – 9.5, 11.1, 13.1, 15.1, 17.2
      CB Bordano – 5.7, 6.6, 6.6
      CB Cranga – 930, 1.1
      CB Foster – 10.0, 10.3
       S Blades – 9.9, 11.5, 13.6
       S Rodenhauser – 910, 1.1
       S Fyie – 8.7, 10.0, 11.7, 11.5, 13.2
       S Reynolds – 3.4, 2.3

12 players tagged to sign, about $52m

[Fritz]

Originally posted by QuikSand
Copying this from the previous page for simplicity's sake:
9 players tagged to sign, about $50m

but how much to cut....

[QuikSand]

I'm sure that we'll end up with a cap hit of something like $20m or so this year... but I also suspect that it won't matter. I don't think we're going to completely fill the roster with expensive free agents this season -- we neesd to try to get the books back into the black, and there will only be so many good fits among the free agent ranks. I'm guessing it will take us 2-3 seasons before we approach the salary cap.

[Fritz]

dola

LT Don Grandon looks like a value at $7,690,000, 3 yrs. He does have a conflict with ther proposed leader (Winters).

C Lewis Perry is pretty good at $1,640,000, 2 yrs. (no bonus) With the exception of the leadership aspect, he could start and save us a ton of cap space this year.

RG Rufus Peterson would be worth the $1,640,000, 2 yrs. (no bonus)

take these three along with and Finley, Song, and Stafford and you have a "legacy" squad with a cost of 27.1 Mil.

[Bee]

I didn't think we could have a conflict going into the season?

[QuikSand]

Originally posted by Fritz
Looking at our QB situation relative to the division, we are going to be in a little bit of a talent hole unless we make a move in FA.

The best QBs in FA are older, but there are some short term solutions out there.

A few guys that I like who are not great, but are yonger (and cheaper):

Charlie LeGrand-
6 years of service, still developing. We can make him am 85 passer rating QB, which is enough to win.

Darren Fenno-
6 years of service with 4 as the Starting QB for NV. He looks accurate, but I think he may be fragile.

AJ Frueler-
5 Years of Service, started 16 games last year for SAC with a 86.2 passer rating. Still developing and is a good long term prospect. Interception prone, but I like him the best of the FAs. Not sure if his chemestry will mix. This would be who I lobby for.

Zach O'Neill-
5 years of service, starting 16 games for TB. Poor passer rating. No better than what we have.

ADDED:

Ellis Comeaux-
6 years of service, started a few games here and there. Very bright (16 formations) and can pull off a safe short game.

Some chemistry thoughts here:

Freuler is a Virgo, which conflicts with Gemini
Comeaux is a Gemini, which conflicts with Virgo
LeGrand is a Leo, which conflicts with Capricorn
Fenno is also a Leo.

[QuikSand]

Originally posted by Bee
I didn't think we could have a conflict going into the season?

Fritz is backhandedly suggesting that we release our big money starting C who is also the position leader, and instead go with the cheaper backup there. That would allos us to sign the T who has the conflict with the current leader.

[QuikSand]

The four affinity groups are:
Aries, Gemini, Scorpio
Sagittarius, Leo, Virgo
Pisces, Taurus, Cancer
Aquarius, Libra, Capricorn

And the six pairs of opposed signs are:
Aries - Aquarius
Taurus - Libra
Gemini - Virgo
Scorpio - Pisces
Capricorn - Leo
Cancer - Sagittarius

[Fritz]

Originally posted by QuikSand
I'm sure that we'll end up with a cap hit of something like $20m or so this year... but I also suspect that it won't matter.

what about the hit for the year after this?

If we cut
QB Clayton 4.9M
LT Andrews 9.9M
LG Foley 3.5M
RG McCord 3.3M

[QuikSand]

I'm thinking we'll probably need to re-sign Clayton, but will release the other three... plus RB Finlay will take us for another $10m or so... ouch.

Or, perhaps the specter of that much cap punishment next season forces our hand to keep on a few of thee guys we otherwise wouldn't.

My inclination is to clean out, and build around "our guys" but maybe that won't be the smartest thing to do in every case.

[Fritz]

attached is the FA list with signs (xls 98). It is set up for filtering, which should help.

[Fritz]

A proposal:

We are going to be in cap hell for two season, so there is no way we can get both sides of the ball right. It seems logical that we will be more competative if we focus on one side of the ball. Since we are shy a decent QB, I think that def should get first priority when it comes to funding (and thus player retention).

Cut everybody from the O and go with scrubs if need be but let us give albionmoonlight all the tools we can to do well (or hang himself).

[QuikSand]

While the tank-the-offense is not a ridiculous proposal, are we perhaps overstating the cap issues a bit much?

I'm used to playing variants on the empty cupboard idea, and routinely field teams with 25-50% of the cap space still available. Even if we end up absorbing $20 this year and $30m next year in cap hits - I'm not sure that's all that big a deal. Yes, it keeps us two or three quality players short of where we could have been... but it's not like we won't have anything at all to work with.

I think we can field a decent, probably shallow, team for two seasons with the cap problems we face by using lots of marginal fill-ins and "good chemistry" guys on the roster. That means not overpaying for tons of mediocre players... but instead accepting that some of our guys are going to be very low on the talent scale. We pick up ten guys who won't ever be in demand, and they can becoem anchors for our future plans with cohesion and team chemistry, because they should never demand big money from us.

[Bee]

Originally posted by QuikSand
I am awaiting the TCY file that will enable us to move forward in earnest. But if you want to advance that far in your game to set a sense of what will be out there in free agency, that's fine (and within our rules).

After taking a peek, I say we resign Emerson. There were a couple players that were slightly better for about the same salary, but I like the fact that Emerson has the affinity with our Defensive Front Leader and I'd like to see how that plays out over another season.

[Fritz]

Originally posted by QuikSand
While the tank-the-offense is not a ridiculous proposal, are we perhaps overstating the cap issues a bit much?

I don't think we should tank at all, but istead of holes on both sides of the ball I think we can field one very solid unit while going through cap jail, and then build the other. What I am suggesting is that we avoid is making heavy commitments on both sides of the ball, while not getting anything right.

[Swaggs]

Originally posted by Fritz
what about the hit for the year after this?

If we cut
LT Andrews 9.9M
LG Foley 3.5M
RG McCord 3.3M

Are we considering not resigning Winters and releasing these three?

Andrews I can live without, due to his cap value. But I think it would be crazy to release him this early in his contract. It makes no sense and is not very realistic.

Foley, we need to dump immediately.

McCord is affordable, assists in our cohesion, and is a solid starter.

Perhaps I misunderstood our goals, but aren't we going for cohesion and team leadership? Making these moves completely obliterates most of the talent we have on the OL, erases our cohesion (almost completely), and dumps our leader on his butt. What is the purpose?

[Fritz]

Originally posted by Swaggs
Are we considering not resigning Winters and releasing these three?

...

Perhaps I misunderstood our goals, but aren't we going for cohesion and team leadership? Making these moves completely obliterates most of the talent we have on the OL, erases our cohesion (almost completely), and dumps our leader on his butt. What is the purpose?

Swaggs,

The only person who has seriously talked about not picking Winters back up is me. I think the rest of GT3 is fine with keeping him on.

[QuikSand]

Originally posted by Swaggs
Perhaps I misunderstood our goals, but aren't we going for cohesion and team leadership? Making these moves completely obliterates most of the talent we have on the OL, erases our cohesion (almost completely), and dumps our leader on his butt. What is the purpose?

I guess there are different ways to try to build cohesion (which I didn't envision as a big part of this, but definitely has become on). One is to retain all the leaders on the current team as best we can. The other is to get players we want, and to keep them around.

I guess it's a matter of whether your goal is to max out cohesion in 2020 or in, say, 2025 or 2030.

In my mind, I'm just afraid that we're getting to the point of having too many conflicting goals. OL is a perfect case in point - we have several high-quality players there. If we want to focus on cohesion, then we want to keep guys like C WInters and T Andrews.

But at the same time, we say we're trying to build team chemistry, and have adopted a rule of no tam conflicts. These two players have a conflict. What to do?


My thinking has always been that we want to basically be starting over here - that's the genesis of the "new contracts" rule -- I didn't want us to benefit from anything the previous KH regime put into place.

So, my vision has basically been we build this team under tight financial rules that will require us to conserev money, use a lot of marginal players, and resort to spending real time with the game plan and team chemistry in order to be good (because we won't be able to get a huge advantage in talent over other teams).

If we build a good chemistry team up, then we'll want to keep those guys around - meaning more and more cohesion ought to be an obvious by-product, but not necessarily our first consideration.


Anyway - it's not just my vision that counts here, but that's what I have been thinking all along. If we collectively want to embrace a different philosophy and do more with immediate cohesion, that's certainly okay by me.

[QuikSand]

Originally posted by Fritz
The only person who has seriously talked about not picking Winters back up is me. I think the rest of GT3 is fine with keeping him on.

Actually, Fritz - I think your idea of keeping our LT instead, and going with the backup instead of C Winters is a pretty good one. It doesn't seem to be consensus (and I haven't reflected it on the SIGN/CUT list), but I personally would favor it.

[QuikSand]

Open question to current participants:

The steam seems to have died out on the TCY side of this. Do we want to just go forward using any old TCY draft file?

How important would it be to you all to see the TCY side of things? (To have the saved game, and be able to review player stats, etc)


I would like to get this moving forward before we just die on the vine here - this seems to be the bext hurdle to get past.

In fact - if nobody cares, we don't even have to use TCY files at all. Initially, that was one of my germ ideas, but it may not be all that meaningful after all.

[Bee]

Originally posted by QuikSand
Actually, Fritz - I think your idea of keeping our LT instead, and going with the backup instead of C Winters is a pretty good one. It doesn't seem to be consensus (and I haven't reflected it on the SIGN/CUT list), but I personally would favor it.

I don't care what you guys do with the o-line, just give my guys some bodies to go up against in practice.

[Swaggs]

I'm fine with dropping the TCY element altogether and going with FOF4-generated drafts. I have no strong feelings either way, but perhaps the TCY aspect is something we could add if we get enough steam going.

[primelord]

Just an FYI guys I am going to have to pull out of this. (Not that I have been of any help yet anyway) But time constraints are going to be more than I expected and rather than take a role and then not have enough time to fill it I will just bow out now. I'll be reading though and if I get more time int he future and there is a place for me to jump in I will. Thanks.

[Bee]

Originally posted by QuikSand
Open question to current participants:

The steam seems to have died out on the TCY side of this. Do we want to just go forward using any old TCY draft file?

How important would it be to you all to see the TCY side of things? (To have the saved game, and be able to review player stats, etc)


I would like to get this moving forward before we just die on the vine here - this seems to be the bext hurdle to get past.

In fact - if nobody cares, we don't even have to use TCY files at all. Initially, that was one of my germ ideas, but it may not be all that meaningful after all.

I don't see a benefit to using TCY files without there being either house rules involving TCY or some link to TCY. The TCY end of things don't seem to be moving so I say we move ahead with just using game generated draft files.

To be honest, I'm a little concerned with the lack of interest we are getting with the FOF Groupthink. I'm not sure if we'll be able to generate enough interest to actually keep this end of things going.

[albionmoonlight]

I have no interest in the TCY side of it. I think that we should not spread ourselves too thin. It's not like we have a waiting list of 30 people wanting to join GT3.

I want to maximize cohesion in 2025 or 2030 rather than now.

I would rather be really really bad now, but keep a few players and some cap room with which to build in the future.

I thought that C Winters and T Andrews had an affinity? What am I missing?

[QuikSand]

Originally posted by albionmoonlight
I thought that C Winters and T Andrews had an affinity? What am I missing?

They have a conflict, Winters is the position leader and they have crossed signs. So, under our current rules, they cannot both stay (assuming Winters remains the leader, which seems likely).

[albionmoonlight]

Oh. Tough call. Winters is cheaper, but Andrews is younger. I think that I would keep Andrews because he will be around long enough to groom someone under him.

However, Winters has been with us for eight years, and if he can still play at a high level for 2-3 years, that may be all we need from him.

I'm fine with whatever way the team decides to go.

[VPI97]

Originally posted by QuikSand
Open question to current participants:

The steam seems to have died out on the TCY side of this. Do we want to just go forward using any old TCY draft file?

QS, Here are the files from my TCY dynasty that you asked for.

2019 Draft File

Saved Game - End of 2019 Season

[QuikSand]

Fellow GroupThinkers, I have used the TCY draft file to advance us into the free agemcy period. And now, we can start the process of makign decisions about where we're going to go - both within our current rosters, with available free agent players, and with potential rookies (though recall, we lack a first round pick this year).

File #1 of 2 attached

[QuikSand]

File #2 of 2 attached

[QuikSand]

Well, among those who are involved so far... does anyone want to sign up to become head of rookie scouting? Swaggs, Bee - as far as I'm concerned that job is available if either of you want it.

[Swaggs]

Originally posted by QuikSand
They have a conflict, Winters is the position leader and they have crossed signs. So, under our current rules, they cannot both stay (assuming Winters remains the leader, which seems likely).

Quik, I think you are confusing Andrews (who is a much better player but has a massive contract) with Grandon (a bit above average) in their relationships with Winters. Andrews has an "affinity" for Winters, while Grandon has a "conflict" with Winters.

See my notes on the two players:


Tackles:

Willie Andrews: Andrews is an interesting player. He has very good, almost excellent, talent, but seems almost indifferent as to the success of the team. Almost as if he is going through the motions. We signed him to an enormous deal two years ago, and it may become an albatross in future years (it increases from roughly $10.5M to roughly $16.5M over the next four years), due to his somewhat advanced age of 32. Hopefully he can remain a solid contributor over the course of the contract. Andrews is a very good overall player, very consistent and pretty durable. He should start for us at LT and do a nice job. He is very close friends with center R.J. Winters, so not signing Winters could adversely affect his play.

Dan Grandon: Grandon is a guy that we will need to keep a very close eye on this preseason. He is a very enigmatic player. Obviously he is talented, as we took him in the first round in 2016. However, he is not a very good pass blocker, but he is such a strong run blocker, it is hard to keep him off the field. That said, he has never been able to win a starting job in his four seasons here. His talent, potential, contract, and the fact that the alternatives are not great, indicate that he should be our starter at RT (provided we plan to run off tackle often). However, he and R.J. Winters absolutely hate one another. At last season's camp, they had to be pulled off of one another after he criticized Winters in the newspapers. However, part of the problem is that Gandon is a very strong leader himself and may be resentful that he has not been able to establish himself and gain his teammates' respect in the way that Winters has. If we are going for peace and harmony and plan to resign Winters, we may consider releasing Grandon and calling his career with the Flyers a bust.

[QuikSand]

Okay, here is a tentaive list of CUTS - I'm offering this up for genral consumption before I move ahead with them. Please voice any objections.

This doesn't necessarily mean these are the only cuts, but this will give us a clearer sense of our immediate financials once we execute... er, effect these moves.

- - -

RB Farrell
S Fyie
G Lash
G Foley
G McCord
QB Ater
RB Rogero
WR Stanford
LB Francis
K McDaniel
TE Parten
TE Wester
P Phillips
T Zorich
LB Baxter
DE Hurtado
CB Cranga
DE Bush

[QuikSand]

Originally posted by Swaggs
Quik, I think you are confusing Andrews (who is a much better player but has a massive contract) with Grandon (a bit above average) in their relationships with Winters. Andrews has an "affinity" for Winters, while Grandon has a "conflict" with Winters.

You're absolutely right. Sorry about that.

[QuikSand]

So, on the OL - does that mean that we are probably looking at either keeping both starters (at LT and C) or going with both backups? (Since the backup KLT conflicts with the starting C)

[Bee]

Originally posted by QuikSand
Well, among those who are involved so far... does anyone want to sign up to become head of rookie scouting? Swaggs, Bee - as far as I'm concerned that job is available if either of you want it.

No thanks. I'm way to unreliable for any position of responsibility.

[QuikSand]

Continuing my work on the secondary - here's a free agent I'd like to target, assuming this fits with our overall resource plan. CB Joseph Henderson is a 6th year player, who started last season for Pensacola and posted 6 interceptions. His coverage skills are improving, and we could lock him up for around $5m a year, I suspect. He's a Leo, which works fine with the other two DBs we have tagged to re-sign, so we wouldn't anticipate conflicts (although the position leader role is unsettled).

[Bee]

Originally posted by QuikSand
So, on the OL - does that mean that we are probably looking at either keeping both starters (at LT and C) or going with both backups? (Since the backup KLT conflicts with the starting C)

Is there any reason not to keep the starters?

[Fritz]

attached is an expanded spreadsheet that combines most of the FA information found on the various tabs. If you know how to filter and sort it can be of some help.

I work in access, so if you would like my simple DB just ask.

What good is it?

With this I have found a LT, Timothy John in FA. He has 6 years under his belt, is scouted as a 31 current, 51 potential, and has a leadership of 100 (and a loyalty of 90). He will be cheap to pick up.

He is good enough (not great) to start, although with lowish endurance, can cement his role as a leader early, and remain the leader for as long as he is with the team. I would consider him a real asset under our structure.

With this tool I can also tell that 3 other FA OLs track well for us. (8 years or less service, 40 or better future, afinity)

LT JR Blair (Libra) 47/47
LG Hauserman 29/41
C Bucky Farr 42/42

Also, the two best QBs for this LT leader would be

Hutchins, Chuck
Sparks, Heath

both decent looking and affordable.


this is fun


Neat Stuff

[QuikSand]

alb, there are two stud OLBs in this free agent class, Odegard and Kasica. Are you inclined to pursue one of those guys? It looks like it would take a full $10 million or so to get them. I agree with you that this is a serious need position for us, but that is a lot to spend.

From my years with Lake Erie, I can put in a good word for Leroy Peterson, who is a pass rush specialist, but doesn't have nagligible skills elsewhere. Dig back a few years to see that he put in a pretty solid full time season with Nashua. He can be had pretty cheaply, it would appear.

If our focus is run support, we coudl look to J.J. Mills, who would also come cheaply. He won't help in getting after the QB, but if we need an extra hand in stopping the running game, Mills ought to help - he has a career 15.9 TkPct.

[QuikSand]

Originally posted by Bee
Is there any reason not to keep the starters?

Money - both guys earn a fortune. But I still think it's a viable option.

[Bee]

Anyone else feel like Fritz just modernized free agency scouting?

I feel obsolete.

[QuikSand]

Originally posted by Fritz
With this I have found a LT, Timothy John in FA. He has 6 years under his belt, is scouted as a 31 current, 51 potential, and has a leadership of 100 (and a loyalty of 90). He will be cheap to pick up.

He is good enough (not great) to start, although with lowish endurance, can cement his role as a leader early, and remain the leader for as long as he is with the team. I would consider him a real asset under our structure.

As an Aquarius, assuming he became our OL leader, he would necessitate that we dump RT Coffey, who is currently on our "sign" list. Just an observation - I see Coffey as a very easily replaceable player.

[albionmoonlight]

I would be for keeping both OL starters. They are both older, so they will not be around for long. My thinking is that they will be going gently into that good night right about the time that we could use their cap room (and it lets us groom a young OL under them in the interim).

I don't think that I should be downloading these files at work, so I will have to wait until tonight to look at the FA situation.

LB is our biggest need on D, so if we can find a stud there, I would be inclined to go for him (it would be the biggest upgrade available). I would like at least one LB to be a stud.

I can give more input when I look at the files.

[QuikSand]

So, it seems like we have some big decisions to make on the OL. Swaggs has given us an excellent scouting report on the lay of the land - but we have to decide how much we want to invest in this area for the short term (as our top two players are both expensive, long-term veterans).

Seems to me the options are something like:

- Re-sign both C Winters and T Andrews, invest in their affinity and get what we can out of them both for the next few years

- Re-sign C Winters and perhaps go with the free agent T Johns, as suggested above by Fritz's "tool"

- Let C Winters go, and instead go with our current backup LT Grandon, who may become the position leader, and probably stick with curretn backup C Perry as our much cheaper starter

- Essentially abandon the offense entirely for the next year or two, and try focus nearly all our resources on the defense (still on the table, though hasn't really been "seconded")


This seems like a good area to focus our first collective decision, which involves all the components of hat we've been trying to incorporate in this challenge. Am I missing viable options here?

What say you all?

[Bee]

Originally posted by QuikSand
as suggested above by Fritz's "tool"

What say you all?

I say we appoint Fritz's "tool" scouting director.

[Swaggs]

An idea, that I think would be both helpful and fun, would be for one of us (presumably QS), that would hold the title of GM, and would act as the overall administrator of the team, which is what he is more or less doing now, anyway. Perhaps the GM should set some yearly and long range goals (on field success, financial success, etc.) and remind ourselves of them prior to each season.

I am fine with building for the future (and hopefully didn't sound too abrasive in some of my posts), but I hate to think we will not ttry to field a competitive team each year. That said, I just want to make sure I am on the same page and in-line with the rest of the franchise, be it trying to win at any costs (boo!) or trying out some new spins like the cohesion/leadership/handicapped finances angle.

[Fritz]

Originally posted by Bee
I say we appoint Fritz's "tool" scouting director.

If I get a chance (I am in the middle of losing my job) I will webify my scouting data.


A note on the data: The scouting is just the overall scout number, which is very suspect. Because of this you still need to lay the ole eyeball down, but it does let you filter.

[Swaggs]

Originally posted by QuikSand

- Re-sign both C Winters and T Andrews, invest in their affinity and get what we can out of them both for the next few years

Just so we are clear, T Andrews is in the eary stages of a mammoth contract given to him by the previous ownership group. He is still owed $13.2M in signing bonuses over the next four seasons, so I think we would be better off in letting him play this season (with a cap hit of roughly $10.5M) than to release him and pay $6.6M this season and $6.6M next for him not to play for us. After this season, releasing Andrews and his signing bonus (factored with his increasing base salary) would be a little more palatable.