Predicting the Summer Olympics (sort of)

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Chase Budinger playing beach volleyball in the Olympics is pretty cool.

The number of high-level athletes in the US who are also really good in another sport is always fascinating. It makes all of the pushes for youth specialization even more silly to me.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Peacock tends to be rather clear as to what is live and what is "encore".

I know each box says what's live and what's not, but in my experience, it's a toss-up as to whether that's actually the case. Or worse, like on the multiview, they show something as live but it's just a replay until you click on that box to watch it in full screen and it tells you the event has ended.

[Ksyrup]

I don't know much about international soccer and even less about Olympics given who may or may not be playing with leagues starting up, but I have to guess that Egypt being up on Spain 2-0 is a fairly major upset?

[Ksyrup]

Perfect example of the Peacock coverage issue. On the main Olympics screen on my Peacock TV app, it's advertising the Nadal/Alcaraz doubles match. It shows live and that it started 1 hour 20 minutes ago. I click on it, and it says "coverage will begin shortly." Does that mean that match is delayed, does it mean it's already over and coverage of something else is going to start? WTF is happening?

Also, I'm glad they are showing so much stuff but I'm surprised some of the bigger, more mainstream sports have zero commentators. None for tennis, none for the Spain/Eqypt soccer match I turned on about 65 minutes in. I find that bizarre.

[Thomkal]

woot for Rugby!

[Ksyrup]

Just saw the highlight of the "walkoff" win.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Just saw the highlight of the "walkoff" win.

Was crazy, Australia had just scored and looked like time was going to run out, but i guess (?) in rugby the play is still alive even if the clock had counted down. Just a crazy way for US to get their first ever women's Rugby medal.

[miami_fan]

All right, watching the gym full of girls going through Jordan Chiles's routine was amazing. There is no better example of how much of a role model these athletes are. Love it!

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

woot for Rugby!

Just watched the replay. Fantastic win! And Ilona Maher may have broader shoulders than mine, but she can get it.

[CrimsonFox]

Why are the crazy looking new Zealand people yelling at me

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Why are the crazy looking new Zealand people yelling at me

You know why.

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I don't know much about international soccer and even less about Olympics given who may or may not be playing with leagues starting up, but I have to guess that Egypt being up on Spain 2-0 is a fairly major upset?

Footbal should be banned from the Olympics until they stop sending Under-21 teams. Sports that don't want to showcase their best teams and players should just not be part of this event altogether. It's weird that soccer devalued over time, it used to be a full fledged one before the FIFA made it's own World Cup event, but it's been this bullshittery as long as I've seen Olympic Games. IOC had the balls to kick out baseball, then show them again and tell soccer they're next.

[bhlloy]

Men’s, yes totally agree. I’d like to see them consider Futsal or 7 a side, but as currently constructed I have less than zero interest in watching any of it.

[sovereignstar v2]

Where is tarcone when commentary on Simone Biles' weak mentality is needed

[PilotMan]

I really need a pro Rugby 7s league. It's been awesome watching these physical, but quick matches. Loved them.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

I really need a pro Rugby 7s league. It's been awesome watching these physical, but quick matches. Loved them.

So, that's actually a thing: https://www.svns.com/en

The same teams that you saw have a yearly set of competitions with like 8-9 tournaments each year. The US usually hosts a competition in Vegas every year that NBC tends to televise

[whomario]

Kickass picture from the surfing competition, Gabriel Medina from Brazil 'jumping off' after a wave.

[Glengoyne]

Originally Posted by whomario

Kickass picture from the surfing competition, Gabriel Medina from Brazil 'jumping off' after a wave.

I saw that on Facebook, and I said to myself "I'm not going to fawn over that until I know it's not photoshop".

[JPhillips]

It's absurd that the top twenty times in the women's 1500 are all owned by Katie Ledecky.

[Atocep]

What Suni Lee just did in the all around is what the Olympics is all about. All the pressure on her to come up huge on her floor routine to secure a medal and she comes through.

[sovereignstar v2]

weakling

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by sovereignstar v2

weakling

? I mean I am but why you call me out like that?

[GrantDawg]

Lol. I knew I wouldn't be able not to be spoiled from the gymnastic results if I chose to be online, but my stinking Iphone didn't have to push message me the results.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Atocep

What Suni Lee just did in the all around is what the Olympics is all about. All the pressure on her to come up huge on her floor routine to secure a medal and she comes through.

Indeed.

Amazing performances by all the medalists. When Andrade came off the floor after finishing her routine, she had the look of someone who knew she had done the gymnastic version of "scored too fast" with Simone Biles going on the floor next.

[RainMaker]

The Turkish guy who just rolled out of bed in a t-shirt and won a silver medal in some shooting event was really funny.

[JPhillips]

His comments on his ex-wife and their dog are great.

Only a matter of time until he gets milkshake ducked, but he's great right now.

[JPhillips]

dola

Why does our 3x3 basketball team look like an over-30 league at the YMCA?

[Ksyrup]

Looks like we're a gold away from the first triple-double of the games.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

dola

Why does our 3x3 basketball team look like an over-30 league at the YMCA?

It is strange. Like couldn't they have found some mid-level NBA guys to play in this? Maybe G-Leaguers? I know it's "different" from full court basketball but I feel like there has to be someone better than a 35-year old Jimmer Fredette.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

It is strange. Like couldn't they have found some mid-level NBA guys to play in this? Maybe G-Leaguers? I know it's "different" from full court basketball but I feel like there has to be someone better than a 35-year old Jimmer Fredette.

I have watched any of the games just highlights so I am ignorant to what it is all about. Are there any players on any of the teams that still get paid to play five on five basketball playing in this tournament? I don't see the benefit for any player who is still getting paid to play five on five basketball to play in three on three games. Especially not under FIBA rules and officiating unless you are already familiar with both. If I had to send a 3x3 team, I would send a combination of guys that play for Overseas Elite in The Basketball Tournament. Does that team even exist anymore? At the very least, they would be familiar with FIBA rules, officiating, and playing under those conditions.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

It is strange. Like couldn't they have found some mid-level NBA guys to play in this? Maybe G-Leaguers? I know it's "different" from full court basketball but I feel like there has to be someone better than a 35-year old Jimmer Fredette.

Don't know all the details but there's participation requirements that require players to rank high enough within the association, points presumably earned in 3v3 competitions. Meaning at the very least it's (i guess) some sort of longterm commitment to the sport and not a "Show up to Camp and get a crash course" type deal.
They also can't have ever played for the 'normal' USMNT.

https://fiba3x3.com/en/olympics/who-...rticipate.html

[stevew]

Too bad they can’t figure out how to get a squad of Hart/Bridges/Divencinzo/Brunson or Holmgren/Suggs/Timme/Kispert

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by whomario

Don't know all the details but there's participation requirements that require players to rank high enough within the association, points presumably earned in 3v3 competitions. Meaning at the very least it's (i guess) some sort of longterm commitment to the sport and not a "Show up to Camp and get a crash course" type deal.
They also can't have ever played for the 'normal' USMNT.

https://fiba3x3.com/en/olympics/who-...rticipate.html

Thanks for the link. Evidently the US men's team is also the Miami team which currently ranked first on the World Pro Tour.

[Ksyrup]

Alcaraz will be playing for the gold. Meanwhile, Djokovic made the semis but appears concerned he reinjured his knee. That has implications not just for the rest of the Olympics but the US Open as well.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Thanks for the link. Evidently the US men's team is also the Miami team which currently ranked first on the World Pro Tour.

Other a bit more niche sports do it similarly. Curling for example i am pretty sure.

Another analogue in terms of that making sense potentially is Tennis doubles, where you don't usually pair top singles players (not that hasn't worked as well, for example in 92 Boris Becker and Michael Stich for Germany) but often players that are at best serviceable singles players but play together really well. Or at least a doubles specialist paired with a WC singles player (Nadal in 2016 played and won with a partner who never cracked Top 100 singles).

Last olympic winners as a high ranked 213 and 295 on the singles tour.

[whomario]

Re-reading the eligibility i'm quite curious how the age restriction on 18 and over would hold up in court given that younger athletes are allowed to compete elsewhere.

[SecretAgentMan]

I could not completely finish them, but here are some athletics projections to take a look at:

[CrimsonFox]

ETHIOPIA???

[miami_fan]

Note to all international soccer competition organizers:

Evidently this is a well kept secret for you so let me help you out.. The men's national teams from France and Argentina hate each other at the moment. Same for matches between the Netherlands and Argentina from what I can tell.

Have plans to deal with that whenever they face each other.

Thanks

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

ETHIOPIA???

It's a country in Africa, in sports best known, perhaps only known, for their long standing rivalry with Kenya in the Athletics long distance running events. Those two are so dominant, I'm not surprised SecretAgentMan's models have two two countries in 2nd and 5th place in a projected medals ranking.

[JPhillips]

Joe Burrow said he wants to play flag football for the 2028 Olympics.

[Ksyrup]

So does Mahomes.

[JPhillips]

I really hope the NFL adjusts camps to let that happen.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by MIJB#19

It's a country in Africa, in sports best known, perhaps only known, for their long standing rivalry with Kenya in the Athletics long distance running events. Those two are so dominant, I'm not surprised SecretAgentMan's models have two two countries in 2nd and 5th place in a projected medals ranking.

I should note that only one of the projections (the one that looks at top times so far this year) favors Ethiopia as the 2nd best country. The projection that looks at the world championship/Olympics results from the past four years actually favors Jamaica to be second.

I actually think that the second projection is more likely to be true. The "top times" projection often predicts 2 or 3 medals for Ethiopia in the distance events, and because those events involve a lot of pack racing, I don't think that's likely. For example, in the 10,000m final earlier today, Ethiopia had the top three times in the field this year. (Actually, they had the top 6) But they only got one medal (a silver), with Uganda winning and an American taking third.

I'm still trying to work on my own program's projections as well. Might still get one done for just the Sprinting events, because I've got that about halfway completed.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

I actually think that the second projection is more likely to be true. The "top times" projection often predicts 2 or 3 medals for Ethiopia in the distance events, and because those events involve a lot of pack racing, I don't think that's likely. For example, in the 10,000m final earlier today, Ethiopia had the top three times in the field this year. (Actually, they had the top 6) But they only got one medal (a silver), with Uganda winning and an American taking third.

Is it based on actual starter or (if not) does it take into account numbers limitations? (I.e. nationa with more high quality athletes than allowed to register)

[bronconick]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I really hope the NFL adjusts camps to let that happen.

I fully expect owners to be sticks in the mud about that and have Goodell quash it.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by whomario

Is it based on actual starter or (if not) does it take into account numbers limitations? (I.e. nationa with more high quality athletes than allowed to register)

Actual starters, though I just assumed that the Top 3 times in the nation were the 3 that made the Olympic team, which is not a guarantee. (I was working pretty quickly on these)

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by bronconick

I fully expect owners to be sticks in the mud about that and have Goodell quash it.

Why on God's green earth would anyone with even half a brain allow a major investment to go take part in something that's basically a joke in its very existence?

That's one of the most asinine things I've ever heard in sports ... and that's a tough bar to clear.

[MIJB#19]

Wow. Femke Bol. Phenomenal. The whole team ran well, but still, wow. I was jumping in front of my tv.

[Thomkal]

Coastal Carolina's own Melissa Jefferson with the bronze metal in the 100 meters. Woot! nice story with the winner-she is the first ever medalist from Saint Lucia, and its gold.