2014 Triple Crown and prep race season

[weegeebored]

The lowest bet I saw for the super using TwinSpires was a $1, Quik.

[Lathum]

exacta and tri box General ARod, Saamrat, Wildcat red

Exacta CC/ Danza, Candy Boy, Wicked Strong

[cartman]

Nice ride for California Chrome.

[PilotMan]

He sure made it look easy. Had a clean look that whole run.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

He sure made it look easy. Had a clean look that whole run.

This.

Cue the weeks of hype.

[QuikSand]

Watching on TV, it was remarkably clear about half mile in that CC was completely in charge. He clearly avoided any trouble, got settled in nicely, and was covering the ground without effort. Unless he just gassed, that race was his the whole way.

Some tumult behind him, but clearly nothing that impactful for the top of the race. Good effort by DANZA after being jostled around a good deal, and a nice rally by the runner up who managed to fuck up every single ticket I held (I was using everyone else among the top six finishers). I thought WICKED STRONG acquitted himself fine workig through that much traffic - my working wagering theory was that CC would be troubled by traffic or exposed as being a SoCal specialist, not necessarily that anyone from this (maybe very weak) field was going to step up and become better than CC at his best.

Alas... assuming he comes out well, he'll head to Baltimore and likely go of at around 1-5. Surely the shortest odds since FuPeg, if not all the way back to the Bid.

[TCY Junkie]

I'm taking social inclusion in the Preakness, his defeat in the wood was more impressive to me than his victories. Has a chance at odds, 3/5 on the favorite makes chrome not bet worthy to me.

[DaddyTorgo]

Preakness is tomorrow?

[SirFozzie]

3rd saturday in may, so yup.

[sterlingice]

How close are we to horse racing? I keep seeing montages and I want to see horses run or go grab a shower before horses run

SI

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

How close are we to horse racing? I keep seeing montages and I want to see horses run or go grab a shower before horses run

SI

Post time for the actual Preakness is 6:20 I believe. I dunno about any of the other races they'd show before it, that's just what I found on the internet earlier.

[cartman]

They cut away pretty quick from the shot of California Chrome being, um, well, excited.

[cartman]

Another perfect run from California Chrome.

[DaddyTorgo]

Again a pretty...easy ride for CC.

[cartman]

Will be interesting to see how he does at the marathon that is The Belmont Stakes.

[BillyNYC]

Haven't made it out to Belmont since moving back to NYC last year. Thinking that a visit in a few weeks is likely.

[weegeebored]

Originally Posted by cartman

Will be interesting to see how he does at the marathon that is The Belmont Stakes.

While this is not a monster 3yo class by any stretch, my feeling is that CC won't get the mile and a half and thus come up short. In the money probably, but not a win. It's a great story but I don't see CC in the same league as Secretariat, Seattle Slew, or Affirmed, or even some other great horses that came up short of the Triple Crown. It will kind of tarnish the TC if Chrome wins it, imo. I won't root against him, but I will be taking a long look at the other horses once the field is set.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by weegeebored

While this is not a monster 3yo class by any stretch, my feeling is that CC won't get the mile and a half and thus come up short. In the money probably, but not a win. It's a great story but I don't see CC in the same league as Secretariat, Seattle Slew, or Affirmed, or even some other great horses that came up short of the Triple Crown. It will kind of tarnish the TC if Chrome wins it, imo. I won't root against him, but I will be taking a long look at the other horses once the field is set.

elitist

[QuikSand]

I'll be at the Belmont, as usual, and will likely be rooting to see a Triple Crown win, and at the same time betting against it.

We have seen some really impressive Preakness follow-ups followed by dull thuds on that home stretch in Elmont, NY. This seems like another case of the same, while his Belmont run wasn't even all that terribly impressive.

Cashed in the Preakness using the favorite on top (mostly for want of other serious talent in the field, though I did use the 1 as my key horse in the 2nd slot) but there wasn't any real money to be made (the 2 ruined my super, I had used the 1 there).

I think it will make for some interesting speculation, and while I wouldn't be shocked if he pulled it off, assuming he goes off around even money in the Belmont (or no higher than, say, 8/5) the board dictates a stand against, I think.

[cartman]

California Chrome draws post 2 for The Belmont.

[path12]

Originally Posted by weegeebored

While this is not a monster 3yo class by any stretch, my feeling is that CC won't get the mile and a half and thus come up short. In the money probably, but not a win. It's a great story but I don't see CC in the same league as Secretariat, Seattle Slew, or Affirmed, or even some other great horses that came up short of the Triple Crown. It will kind of tarnish the TC if Chrome wins it, imo. I won't root against him, but I will be taking a long look at the other horses once the field is set.

No tarnish if he wins as far as I'm concerned. It's a weak year but that is still a helluva grind and any horse that can do something that hasn't been done in 35 years deserves all the credit he can get.

[QuikSand]

Heading out shortly to travel up for the Belmont. Circumstances have made this a longer and more expensive day than usual, but I'll be damned if I'm going to let this clown go off odds-on top win the TC after being there for 15 years and seeing 7 try-and-misses already.

My money will be on a number, including CC in the mix for exotics, but my main play will be WICKED STRONG. Just seems like an obvious fit, pedigree, has trained well and run well before at BEL, and these days the five week layoff seems like a plus angle itself. I really was hoping for better than the morning line of 6-1 (I actually thought he might be 3rd or 4th among betting choices...expecting him to rate behind RIDE ON CURLIN, whom I also give a shot today).

I join many in expecting that CC's pedigree will just catch up to him here, and he won't really have enough to finish that well. I think the pace scenario sets up for him awfully well, actually - nobody ought to burn things up on the front end. My guess is CC will settle in behind SAMRAAT (also a live play) and probably one other who decides to gun it, and try to have his way again with a perfect trip to a move early on the turn (all of which suits CC perfectly well).

With many years of investment already sunk, and in all likelihood a $100 win ticket on the late-charging rival... I honestly don't know what I will be thinking or hoping if it comes down to seeing a Triple Crown completed or winning the bet.

Awww, who am I kidding. Show me the money!

WICKED STRONG
RIDE ON CURLIN
CALIFORNIA CHROME
SAMRAAT

...and I will indeed have superfecta tickets that exclude the favorite, in an effort to crush it. In time, we might just start calling that bet a "Big Brown" but for now, it needs a fuller explanation. I will wheel in MEDAL COUNT, MATUSZAK, and COMMISSIONER if my current leanings hold through a long drive of handicapping debate.

Best of luck to all!

[weegeebored]

I like your thought process QS. Have a great time at the Belmont, and best of luck to you as well.

[murrayyyyy]

Dosage doesn't excite me about Chrome or Curlin. Three wagers placed.

-115 against Chrome winning the triple crown. (think he gets caught after leading at the turn)

+700 Wicked Strong win prop. (rest, dosage, pedigree all points to him here. Took the prop because I think his odds go off near 5-1)

+195 Wicked Strong vs Chrome. I think Chrome runs out of gas down the back stretch and liked the way WS came back in the Derby from 14th to 4th.

[cartman]

Not quite enough left in the tank for California Chrome at a mile and a half.

[PilotMan]

It looked rough down the back stretch. Just had a feeling that it wasn't going to work today. That distance is tough.

[sterlingice]

Same thoughts: just seems like he didn't have enough left for the longer race.

SI

[PilotMan]

Emotional interview with Chrome's owner. I can't say I wouldn't feel that way after the race. I doubt he wins over any new fans though.

[weegeebored]

I didn't catch all of that interview, but what I heard was borderline classless. Yeah. Blame the other owners/horses for compromising CC's chances. I was worried about Chrome getting the mile and a quarter with his pedigree, so I definitely doubted his ability to go the extra quarter. They turned $10K into nine or ten million. Quit your bitchin'.

[sooner333]

I did not do well on my wagers despite not including Chrome on the top of my trifecta bet. But my buddies hit the .50 trifecta, so that was pretty fun.

[QuikSand]

Tough day at the windows for me and my group. Lots of nibbling around the edges of big exotics, not enough actual cashing.

Not shocked about the big race result, I basically threw out Tonalist to keep my tickets manageable, but I didn't see anything to hate about him.

The end of the race was just visually stagnant - nobody really making a serious move (definitely not Wicked Strong, who definitely got himself into position but just didn't have another gear) even the winner. Just a lot of horses who looked pretty tired overall. I haven't seen time splits (just getting in) but I expect to be reaffirmed.

Alas.

[stevew]

did you get caught in the traffic armageddon alluded to on deadspin?

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Heading out shortly to travel up for the Belmont. Circumstances have made this a longer and more expensive day than usual, but I'll be damned if I'm going to let this clown go off odds-on top win the TC after being there for 15 years and seeing 7 try-and-misses already.

My money will be on a number, including CC in the mix for exotics, but my main play will be WICKED STRONG. Just seems like an obvious fit, pedigree, has trained well and run well before at BEL, and these days the five week layoff seems like a plus angle itself. I really was hoping for better than the morning line of 6-1 (I actually thought he might be 3rd or 4th among betting choices...expecting him to rate behind RIDE ON CURLIN, whom I also give a shot today).

I join many in expecting that CC's pedigree will just catch up to him here, and he won't really have enough to finish that well. I think the pace scenario sets up for him awfully well, actually - nobody ought to burn things up on the front end. My guess is CC will settle in behind SAMRAAT (also a live play) and probably one other who decides to gun it, and try to have his way again with a perfect trip to a move early on the turn (all of which suits CC perfectly well).

With many years of investment already sunk, and in all likelihood a $100 win ticket on the late-charging rival... I honestly don't know what I will be thinking or hoping if it comes down to seeing a Triple Crown completed or winning the bet.

Awww, who am I kidding. Show me the money!

WICKED STRONG
RIDE ON CURLIN
CALIFORNIA CHROME
SAMRAAT

...and I will indeed have superfecta tickets that exclude the favorite, in an effort to crush it. In time, we might just start calling that bet a "Big Brown" but for now, it needs a fuller explanation. I will wheel in MEDAL COUNT, MATUSZAK, and COMMISSIONER if my current leanings hold through a long drive of handicapping debate.

Best of luck to all!

When is worthwhile money gonna expand to horse racing? I'd read that blog.

[weegeebored]

Originally Posted by Young Drachma

When is worthwhile money gonna expand to horse racing?

Could you elaborate?

[Galaxy]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Emotional interview with Chrome's owner. I can't say I wouldn't feel that way after the race. I doubt he wins over any new fans though.

At first, I would agree...but the Triple Crown has always been like this, hasn't it?

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Galaxy

At first, I would agree...but the Triple Crown has always been like this, hasn't it?

Yes.

[Galaxy]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Yes.

So the guy just sounds like a whiner then.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Galaxy

So the guy just sounds like a whiner then.

Ding ding ding.

[PilotMan]

What I meant was that I would feel emotional and possibly say something I regretted without thinking. I'd want to feel like there was an outside reason why things didn't go my way. I totally agree that he has no argument at all. It's not like there was a big change in the rules or something. He just should have maybe counted to 10 before the reporter put a mic in front of his mouth.

[TCY Junkie]

Hit the pick 3 but really just offset my bets. Actually hit just about as good as a guy could. Gave my uncle 25 percent of my IRS pick3 and another big pick 3, so instead of being down 300 he was up too. Awesome day. My only wp bets were on medal count. 20 and 50. If he broke better I could have been in the photo maybe, oh well. Figures, he came in 3rd since I had him 1 and 2.

[BillyNYC]

Originally Posted by stevew

did you get caught in the traffic armageddon alluded to on deadspin?

Went to my first ever Belmont yesterday. Foolishly went late enough, and without reserve seats, so got stuck standing behind many other rows of people and not seeing much. My own rookie fault.

That paled to the fun of getting out of there. Actually stayed for the remaining 2 races, to let the traffic thin. That didn't help. It ended up taking around 2 hours to get out of the lot (the blue lot from the deadspin article). No one directing anything until the very exit, at times no movement at all for up to 15 mins at a time. (We shut our car down at times.) Lots of drunken bros leaving their party buses and finding places to pee, before returning to the barely moved bus. Once out of the facility, traffic wasn't too bad.

I initially said "should've taken the train", but the LIRR stories aren't much better. If am still living in Queens the next time I go, think the solution is to just walk a mile or two to a bus or subway far enough away from the facility.

It's appalling the lack of preparation by authorities, although the transit infrastructure in that part of LI/Queens is pretty limited and not much that can truly be done.

[JonInMiddleGA]

California Chrome owner Steve Coburn continues rant vs. Triple Crown system - ESPN

Too little too late IMO. The sooner this jackass (and I don't mean the horse) is relegated to a very minor footnote in history the better afaic.

edit to add: The link is not reflecting the updated headline of "Steve Coburn 'very ashamed' "
Steve Coburn, the co-owner of California Chrome, apologized for his two-day rant against Belmont Stakes winner Tonalist and the Triple Crown rules during an emotional interview with ABC's "Good Morning America" on Monday.

[ISiddiqui]

At least he finally apologized. One can easily explain away the 'right after' comments, but to go a second day?

I think that people don't realize that the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, and Belmont Stakes are three different races with three different entrance requirements. The ONLY link they have is that winning all three = Triple Crown. It isn't a season or anything. Why should the Belmont give up the revenue of other trainers wanting to race their horses in their race when they didn't race in 2 unconnected races?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

At least he finally apologized. One can easily explain away the 'right after' comments, but to go a second day?

I think that people don't realize that the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, and Belmont Stakes are three different races with three different entrance requirements. The ONLY link they have is that winning all three = Triple Crown. It isn't a season or anything. Why should the Belmont give up the revenue of other trainers wanting to race their horses in their race when they didn't race in 2 unconnected races?

The whole thing is stupid. If only Derby horses could race in the other 2 the Belmont would be a 2 horse field.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Young Drachma

When is worthwhile money gonna expand to horse racing? I'd read that blog.

Filed for future consideration.

[QuikSand]

Not to give this asshat too much juice...but something that helped to create more of a "series" feel to the three races could be interesting.

Some sort of prize available only to those entered in all three races...more than just a top prize, several slots. You don't want to create incentive to over-enter if the horses are not fit, but something that helped the names be more familiar could be good. Or do the same but extend it out to the Haskell, Jim Dandy, Travers? Developing a higher profile 3yo "season" could get some different viewers interested.

[cartman]

I did remember seeing something in the run-up to the Belmont that said no horse had ever won the Triple Crown when there were more than 8 horses entered in the race. It would be interesting to go back and see how many horses were hold outs that foiled other Triple Crown bids, and how many could have challenged Triple Crown winning horses and didn't. I don't think Eddy Merckx could have beaten Secretariat in 1973.

[sterlingice]

Is the talk about a shortened season legit? I don't remember how far apart the races were in the past. Does the current schedule legitimately tire out horses by racing every couple of weeks?

If so, would spreading out the season for the three big races a bit more help make it more fair for those horses in all 3 races?

SI

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Is the talk about a shortened season legit? I don't remember how far apart the races were in the past. Does the current schedule legitimately tire out horses by racing every couple of weeks?

If so, would spreading out the season for the three big races a bit more help make it more fair for those horses in all 3 races?

SI

This is one of those things where deep traditionalists would rebel, but there's a strong argument (for the modern racing game) to be made to stretch them out, like 4 week breaks.

[henry296]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Not to give this asshat too much juice...but something that helped to create more of a "series" feel to the three races could be interesting.

Some sort of prize available only to those entered in all three races...more than just a top prize, several slots. You don't want to create incentive to over-enter if the horses are not fit, but something that helped the names be more familiar could be good. Or do the same but extend it out to the Haskell, Jim Dandy, Travers? Developing a higher profile 3yo "season" could get some different viewers interested.

I remember in the late 80s/ early 90s something like that existed for the 3 triple crown races.