2015 NBA Offseason Thread

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by nol

Alvin Gentry got hired by New Orleans - if Anthony Davis becomes a 3-point shooter, it will probably be under this guy.

I get that 3-point shooting big men are more valuable in 2015 than close to the rim guys. But something seems wrong about a guy with the talent to become David Robinson or Hakeem Olajuwon learning to stand in the corner and waive his hands.

[stevew]

Davis adding a reliable 3 point shot will be the difference between him being a multiple MVP and likely HOFer and him becoming one of the 10 best players of all time.

[nol]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I get that 3-point shooting big men are more valuable in 2015 than close to the rim guys. But something seems wrong about a guy with the talent to become David Robinson or Hakeem Olajuwon learning to stand in the corner and waive his hands.

It's not deciding between close shots and three pointers, it's midrange and threes, and Davis already shoots a lot from 18-20 feet. Nobody has the talent to become Hakeem or David Robinson in 2015 because you can't back somebody down 1-on-1 for 10+ seconds.

[stevew]

Davis was a point guard thru 11th grade, right?

[Alf]

Non surprising moves so far.

[nol]

Oh boy, the Clippers are possibly trading for Lance Stephenson. They'd be giving up Matt Barnes and Hawes.

[stevew]

Sounds like Embiid is still not right.

[Groundhog]

Stephenson's issues are 90% mental and theres a good chance he can bounce back IMO. I'd probably take that gamble if I'm the Clippers.

Doesn't look good for Embiid or the Sixers. Really interested to see what they do in the draft now, PG or maybe trade down for size.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by nol

Oh boy, the Clippers are possibly trading for Lance Stephenson. They'd be giving up Matt Barnes and Hawes.

Oof.

[nol]

Originally Posted by Groundhog

Stephenson's issues are 90% mental and theres a good chance he can bounce back IMO. I'd probably take that gamble if I'm the Clippers.

I probably would too but it's definitely a gamble. When the Clippers have looked championship-caliber, Matt Barnes is knocking down threes at a respectable rate. He had a rough playoffs and is getting up there in years, so it very well could be the right time to move on (and moving the Hawes contract is nice too), but that 16% three-point shooting in conjunction with how the Clippers lost Game 6 to the Rockets is tough to stomach.


One draft guy I'm really not getting the hype on is Porzingis. Don't think he'll wash out of the league in 3 years or anything, but I'm having a really hard time foreseeing him as an All-Star level player.

To me, the Embiid news seems like a calculated move by the 76ers to give some credence to the idea they would draft someone like Okafor if he's there at 3, which would possibly make some teams contact them with a stronger trade offer.

[stevew]

The Pistons getting Ilysova fofor nothing a few weeks ago seemed like a good trade.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by nol

Oh boy, the Clippers are possibly trading for Lance Stephenson. They'd be giving up Matt Barnes and Hawes.

Lance and CP3? On the same team?

Interesting.

[Julio Riddols]

Lance Stephenson will never be a member of a championship team.

[cmp]

Originally Posted by stevew

The Pistons getting Ilysova fofor nothing a few weeks ago seemed like a good trade.

I liked the trade. Basically gave up nothing for him.

[nol]

Originally Posted by cmp

I liked the trade. Basically gave up nothing for him.

Yeah, that was a pure salary dump for Milwaukee. I don't know what they're gonna do with the cap room beyond re-signing Middleton.

Players like Ilyasova are in kind of an interesting place right now as teams are becoming comfortable with playing 'stretch 4s' who are pretty much traditional small forwards. Guys in that Harrison Barnes/Andre Iguodala mold are going to have the same effect on players like Ilyasova or Ryan Anderson that those players had on the traditional PFs that didn't have much of a perimeter game.

[BishopMVP]

I'm starting to get a little worried about the Celtics actually signing Greg Monroe. I guess if it's like Evan Turner or Paul Millsap and they get him for a shockingly low per year figure, but I wouldn't even pay him 8 figures, and I think he'll sign for above that.

[Brian Swartz]

So now apparently the Sixers will have no management issues, thanks to self-declared 'basketball genius' AI.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

I'm starting to get a little worried about the Celtics actually signing Greg Monroe. I guess if it's like Evan Turner or Paul Millsap and they get him for a shockingly low per year figure, but I wouldn't even pay him 8 figures, and I think he'll sign for above that.

I think the Knicks will get desperate and pay him a lot of money when they strike out on everyone else.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

I'm starting to get a little worried about the Celtics actually signing Greg Monroe. I guess if it's like Evan Turner or Paul Millsap and they get him for a shockingly low per year figure, but I wouldn't even pay him 8 figures, and I think he'll sign for above that.

Yeah not sure why they are so focused on big guys that is not what the game is built around anymore and the Warriors along with other teams are proving this is a guard especially PG drive league and you need at least one all star on your team. The Celtics have neither of those aspects though they have very strong PGs not sure they have anything remotely near a star. Lastly, all these mid/ late first round and second round picks are nearly worthless unless they can bundle them all for one or two young stars.

[Groundhog]

I think the whole 'bigmen are dead' argument is a bit premature. The Warriors still played Bogut (and Ezeli/Speights et al) a good deal until the finals because of the matchups, and it was the fact that TT and Mozgov just weren't mobile enough to pester Curry and co on the picks that made bigs unplayable and let the Warriors run so long with no traditional post players on the court.

Monroe can easily be a quality starting 5 man in today's NBA IMO, as long as you have the right guys at the 4 and 3 spots to compliment him - versatile tweeners who can stretch the court and do a little bit of everything. I think having him as a 4 man and sharing the court with another big who isn't a stretch shooter runs contrary to what seems to be the winning formula as far as spacing goes these days.

[nol]

Originally Posted by Galaril

Yeah not sure why they are so focused on big guys that is not what the game is built around anymore and the Warriors along with other teams are proving this is a guard especially PG drive league and you need at least one all star on your team. The Celtics have neither of those aspects though they have very strong PGs not sure they have anything remotely near a star. Lastly, all these mid/ late first round and second round picks are nearly worthless unless they can bundle them all for one or two young stars.

The Warriors proved that if you have a 3-4 guys 6'6" or taller who can all guard multiple positions, attack the basket off the dribble, and knock down three-pointers at a passable rate, you can go small and have a lot of success. Teams have tried this with worse players (mid-2000s Atlanta Hawks come to mind) and not done particularly well, so there's still room to get players you think are actually good rather than trying to duplicate whatever the championship-winning team did.

[Groundhog]

Originally Posted by nol

The Warriors proved that if you have a 3-4 guys 6'6" or taller who can all guard multiple positions, attack the basket off the dribble, and knock down three-pointers at a passable rate, you can go small and have a lot of success. Teams have tried this with worse players (mid-2000s Atlanta Hawks come to mind) and not done particularly well, so there's still room to get players you think are actually good rather than trying to duplicate whatever the championship-winning team did.

Yep, I think people are getting a little too excited with the "Warriors formula". Green took a big leap forward this year, and he is basically the reason the Warriors are able to play the style that they do and not get killed on the other side of the court. The Warriors are just a hell of a team, and that's why it works. You can win it all with a more traditional lineup, just look at the Spurs last year. They shuffled things around during the playoffs as needed, and sometimes it was a traditional Duncan/Splitter frontcourt, and sometimes it was Duncan/Diaw.

Matchups are the key, and the Spurs last year and Warriors this year were deep enough and skilled enough to counter and beat what the opponents were trying to do.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I think the Knicks will get desperate and pay him a lot of money when they strike out on everyone else.

Someone is going to way over pay Enes Kanter as well

[stevew]

So what's up with the draft? The guy who maybe interests me the most is Kristaps Porzingis. I can't really find a reasonable game film, but he really seems to move well in workouts and has good size and footwork. Obviously he's going to need to hit the gym as he looks like he'd get posted up to death. I'm going to say that he's more likely to be in that Gasol/Dirk/AK47 mode rather than the Tshkivilli/Darko/Wizards guy(name escapes me) mode. Also can't seem to find any wingspan/height measurements but I've seen that he's somewhere between 6'11 and 7'2 Hopefully he somehow avoids going to the Sixers.

[CU Tiger]

Originally Posted by nol

One draft guy I'm really not getting the hype on is Porzingis. Don't think he'll wash out of the league in 3 years or anything, but I'm having a really hard time foreseeing him as an All-Star level player.

Originally Posted by stevew

So what's up with the draft? The guy who maybe interests me the most is Kristaps Porzingis.

lol

2 enter 1 leaves

[stevew]

Originally Posted by CU Tiger

lol

2 enter 1 leaves

I know. Right?

Maybe I overrate the way big guys move but his footwork looks enticing.

[stevew]

Dola-

Yes there was no chair guarding him in the vids I saw. Maybe he is Yi Jainlain(sp) 2.0

[Groundhog]

nol I'm sure has seen more of him than me, but I've watched a fair bit of video on Porzingis over the last month and a couple of full games. He's going to struggle to finish around the basket with his frame and I didn't see much in the way of ball handling ability with him, but he's got really nice touch and is deceptively athletic, and seems to fit the mould of what you want in a 4 man these days. I'd roll the dice on him at #3 over Russell, but I think the Sixers will probably go Russell as it's probably a close race between the two with PG more of a need.

[Groundhog]

dola

Having said that, I also have a weird feeling that if the Knicks go with Porzingis, he is destined to be a bust.

[Groundhog]

I think Magic might be the most interesting team in the top 5. If I were Orlando and Russell or Mudiay fell to me, I'd be real tempted to look to move Payton - assuming he hasn't magically learnt to shoot. I'm not sure you can be a winning team in the NBA today if defenders don't respect your PGs ability to shoot.

I didn't like Gordon prior to the draft and saw nothing from him as a rookie to convince me that he's their future at PF (or SF), so if I were the Magic I'd be looking for options at his positions too.

If I were Orlando, I'd draft Porzingis, Russell, Winslow, Cauley-Stein, or Hezonja, in that order.

[nol]

Originally Posted by stevew

I know. Right?

Maybe I overrate the way big guys move but his footwork looks enticing.

My thing is more that every European player has to get compared to every other European player, so people think he can only be Pau Gasol or Dirk if he's good and Darko or Tskitishvili (sp?) if he's bad. I think you can safely rule out Pau/Dirk as best-case scenarios because he does not have anywhere near the creativity or floor vision that Pau or Dirk had, and when you combine that with the likelihood that he won't be finishing at the rim against NBA athletes very well, I don't think he could be any better on offense than someone like Ryan Anderson - aka a good stretch big man whose effectiveness teams can severely limit by running him off the arc.

Now, a version of Ryan Anderson who can play defense at a pretty passable level (Porzingis is decently athletic but appears a long shot to have the kind of basketball IQ necessary to be a top-notch rim protector) is a very solid player, I think players like Russell and Okafor have a better shot at being franchise players.

[stevew]

Lemme clarify. I think Porzingis should go 3rd or 4th due to the uncertainty. Is his frame going to hold some muscle? Can he fall in love with the weight room?

There are so many drafts where a guy with a dash of AK47 and a dash of Ryan Anderson would be a easy top 5 player in the class.

[nol]

Originally Posted by stevew

Lemme clarify. I think Porzingis should go 3rd or 4th due to the uncertainty. Is his frame going to hold some muscle? Can he fall in love with the weight room?

There are so many drafts where a guy with a dash of AK47 and a dash of Ryan Anderson would be a easy top 5 player in the class.

Just to clarify, he won't be as good a shooter as Ryan Anderson - they're just similar in that even on their best shooting days, you can sell out on defense to prevent them from shooting 3s and live with them trying to put the ball on the floor and make a play.

I think if Mario Hezonja was available to have a 1-on-0 workout (instead he's playing in the Spanish league finals, where he had 18 off the bench in game 1) that focused on threes and dunks, he'd look even more impressive than Porzingis did. If I were the Knicks at 4 and the first three picks were Towns, Okafor, and Russell, I'd very much want to trade down; if some teams honestly think Porzingis is in the conversation for #1 overall and are not just smokescreening there should be some good offers (the Knicks are more than one player away from being good anyways) and I think there will be guys available in the 7-10 range who have just as much, if not more upside than Porzingis.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by stevew

So what's up with the draft? The guy who maybe interests me the most is Kristaps Porzingis. I can't really find a reasonable game film, but he really seems to move well in workouts and has good size and footwork. Obviously he's going to need to hit the gym as he looks like he'd get posted up to death. I'm going to say that he's more likely to be in that Gasol/Dirk/AK47 mode rather than the Tshkivilli/Darko/Wizards guy(name escapes me) mode. Also can't seem to find any wingspan/height measurements but I've seen that he's somewhere between 6'11 and 7'2 Hopefully he somehow avoids going to the Sixers.

Latvian Kelly Olynyk.

Rumors have the Celtics trying to trade up, and I hope they do. Stanley Johnson and Myles Turner are both players I'd love that I think will go in the 9-12 range (and it sounds like Charlotte wants a 2-guard, most of whom would be slight reaches at 9). At 16, Kelly Oubre is my favorite in a vacuum, but seems too similar to James Young for us to develop both at once. I love Bobby Portis's motor, but think Kevon Looney will be a better player. Hollis-Jefferson is a rotation player, but will never develop an offensive game imo. Maybe if he slips to 28. Delon Wright is old, but secretly one of my favorites. A great defender who can guard multiple perimeter positions and probably hold his own off in the post off a P&R mismatch, who can create some offense and will be ready to contribute during his rookie deal? Sign me up. Having said all that, we'll probably draft one of the Wisconsin guys.

At 28 (if we don't trade it) or 33 a lot of fans want Robert Upshaw, but I get less of an "immature" vibe off him and more of an "he's actually a bad person" one. I like Justin Anderson, Richaun Holmes, Andrew Harrison and the two UNLV guys. Or obviously one of Hollis-jefferson/Wright if they slide.

[MrBug708]

Dwayne Wade?

I see Kobe is still trying to get that one last ring..

[nol]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

Dwayne Wade?

I see Kobe is still trying to get that one last ring..

I see Dwayne Wade is still trying to get some leverage for that one last contract.

[stevew]

Thanks for the saying the O word, bishop

[Vince, Pt. II]

So I've been hearing rumors that the Warriors are going to have to package their #1 pick to move David Lee. Am I the only one that thinks that is crazy? He's an expiring contract and despite coming off the bench all season, it's pretty obvious he's still a very good player.

[nol]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

So I've been hearing rumors that the Warriors are going to have to package their #1 pick to move David Lee. Am I the only one that thinks that is crazy? He's an expiring contract and despite coming off the bench all season, it's pretty obvious he's still a very good player.

No, there are probably a half dozen teams with the cap room to take on $15 million in salary and a future Warriors pick is likely to be very late in the first round.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by nol

I see Dwayne Wade is still trying to get some leverage for that one last contract.

Pretty much. I also see this as an attempt by the Players Association to end the practice of the best players on individual teams taking less money.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

So I've been hearing rumors that the Warriors are going to have to package their #1 pick to move David Lee. Am I the only one that thinks that is crazy? He's an expiring contract and despite coming off the bench all season, it's pretty obvious he's still a very good player.

If we're losing Love, I'd gladly package Haywood and parts for Lee.

[nol]

Originally Posted by stevew

If we're losing Love, I'd gladly package Haywood and parts for Lee.

The Cavs would need another shooter more than another PF in that situation. Lee is Kevin Love without a three-point shot, and the three was all Love had going for him for a pretty big chunk of last year.

[stevew]

I'm not sure who else we can get for Haywood that would be any better. Would have taken Ilysova but already was dealt.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

So I've been hearing rumors that the Warriors are going to have to package their #1 pick to move David Lee. Am I the only one that thinks that is crazy? He's an expiring contract and despite coming off the bench all season, it's pretty obvious he's still a very good player.

The going rate for a 1st round pick is $10 million. Lee is over that and it's for the worst pick in the 1st round. So I don't even think that'd be enough to take him off their hands.

I've heard a couple other options. Lee would work out a buyout with another team in advance. Warriors would package their 1st with him to that team who would buy him out. That would then let Lee be able to sign elsewhere before the season. The other option is to just waive him and use the stretch provision.

[nol]

Originally Posted by stevew

I'm not sure who else we can get for Haywood that would be any better. Would have taken Ilysova but already was dealt.

Marvin Williams is someone I can think of, but I'd guess the more attractive options would be trading Haywood and some other cheap player like Joe Harris for a couple guys who are paid in the $4-5 million range. Especially if some team whiffs in free agency and wants to get into cap saving/tanking mode, Cleveland can pretty much do what they did with the Shumpert/Smith trade.

[stevew]

Lee can't be stretch provisioned. One of few players left. Might be the last.

[Groundhog]

Phil Jackson is now:

[nol]

Kings are trying to trade Cousins. Between Kings fans' rightful pessimism that the front office will get any kind of decent return and Lakers fans' delusional optimism that their team can acquire superstars at no cost, the trade rumors will be pretty funny.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by nol

Kings are trying to trade Cousins. Between Kings fans' rightful pessimism that the front office will get any kind of decent return and Lakers fans' delusional optimism that their team can acquire superstars at no cost, the trade rumors will be pretty funny.

I just can't see the Kings trading him for anything less than the 2nd pick in the draft. He's a really good player on a really good deal.

I don't get what the Kings are doing.

[nol]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I just can't see the Kings trading him for anything less than the 2nd pick in the draft. He's a really good player on a really good deal.

I don't get what the Kings are doing.

Kevin Love on an expiring contract got traded for the first pick (and the first overall pick the year before, but that's mostly incidental). It should take a lot more than that.