Werewolf XVIII: To Crown a King (GAME OVER)

[Coffee Warlord]

Checkin' in after having made an incredible new dinner dish. Yum!

[Schmidty]

I'm here. On and off the computer this evening, but just wanted to check in.

[Barkeep49]

Ok seems like I made a slight mistake in missing Saldana as a sign-up. This actually works out very well. I'm going to reroll the roles as I feel far more confident about balancing an 18 person game than a 17. I apologize for those of you who got roles that you'd like, but there will actually be more roles in an 18 person game than a 17. This should be done with-in the next half-hour or so.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Ok seems like I made a slight mistake in missing Saldana as a sign-up. This actually works out very well. I'm going to reroll the roles as I feel far more confident about balancing an 18 person game than a 17. I apologize for those of you who got roles that you'd like, but there will actually be more roles in an 18 person game than a 17. This should be done with-in the next half-hour or so.

Damn.

I quit.

[Schmidty]

j/k

[kingfc22]

Checking in. I hope this WW game is as good as our last.

[Passacaglia]

Cool, I'm in!

[Barkeep49]

Ok revised PMs have been sent. Faction Leaders make sure to send in your messages and which night (even or odds) you would like to be protected. Sneaky Noble tell me which noble you are spying on. Wise Noble tell me which roles you would like to find out about. Assassins tell me which player you are going to blackmail.

Once again the game is on.

[Joe]

let's get it started

[hoopsguy]

Checking in, looking forward to a fun game here.

[st.cronin]

This game seems like it will be a lot different from the last.

[Poli]

FUuuuuuuuuuuuun game by the looks of it.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I don't understand why this game is called "werewolf."

To me werewolf is a term which refers to a broad category of games. Neon has run a few games which use mafia as the bad guys rather than Werewolves. By putting Werewolf in the thread title I think you're letting people know it's a game, there's going to be deduction, lies, voting, etc. But you do bring up an interesting point .

[saldana]

now that i am in the game, checking in, i am looking forward to this game, barkeeps spawn game was awesome.

[Blade6119]

Wow, i have been on a 5 game villager streak....so what do i get here, first a villager(noble)....then another villager!!!! KICK ASS!!!!

[Mr. Wednesday]

Villager role received.

[Vince]

Checkin' in. I'm off tomorrow, so I'm likely to be away from the computer for most of the day doing useless things I don't like. Exciting.

[TazFTW]

Checkin' in.

[McSweeny]

ok i'm around now, i should be around pretty often all week

[st.cronin]

I will bet my second license of tcy that I am not the cunning wolf in this game.

[Barkeep49]

UPDATE: Several players still haven't logged on to the board since the roles have been sent out. Hopefully they will log on soon, and the several people who still owe me night PMs (including some one(s) who've checked in here) will send it on their way as soon as possible.

[Vince]

So...seems that a likely place to start discussions on this game is the strategic value of the Jail. I think that for the villagers, the jail is only useful later in the game, when the 'wolves' have been thinned out a bit -- the early game is mostly a time to fish for information, and little is learned about anything if no one is killed. The assassins definitely gain by having no kill on any of the first few nights...we gain no information, they have no risk of being killed, and they get to kill in the night.

I think at first, at least, most (if not all) of our votes should be for execution.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Vince

So...seems that a likely place to start discussions on this game is the strategic value of the Jail. I think that for the villagers, the jail is only useful later in the game, when the 'wolves' have been thinned out a bit -- the early game is mostly a time to fish for information, and little is learned about anything if no one is killed. The assassins definitely gain by having no kill on any of the first few nights...we gain no information, they have no risk of being killed, and they get to kill in the night.

I think at first, at least, most (if not all) of our votes should be for execution.

Why? I think the best thing would be to let the jail fill up a bit and wait for the sneaky nobles to hit an assassin.--It may even give us hints to the other assassins

1st off, we lose WAY more points for voting to lynch a noble than voting to jail one. And we all know the early votes are always crap shoots.

[Vince]

How often does a sneaky noble (read: seer) hit an assassin? Look at Ardent last game -- he hit one right away, but what was he able to do about it? He outed him three game days later, and managed to get two villagers killed in the process. That's a very iffy situation, and while we're sitting on our thumbs waiting for the (possibly non-existant) chance that our Sneaky Noble might 'hit an assassin,' the assassins get to kill people and we don't learn much, if anything, about voting patterns, etc.

I meant to start discussion on this, because I'd be willing to change my tack on voting to execute from the beginning. I'm still trying to get my mind around the whole points/crowning a king thing, so I haven't thought about that yet. The penalty for voting to execute a noble (especially one of your own clan) is a pretty significant damper to random voting.

[st.cronin]

I agree with dubb. Jail is our friend.

[Vince]

Originally Posted by Vince

...and managed to get two villagers killed in the process.

This doesn't include the villagers that were killed at night and via lynch between the time he found out Hoops was a villager and the time he outed him -- just includes he and Mr. Wednesday.

I don't want to criticize Ardent's play, because I think he did a pretty good job -- but it is very indicative of how unreliable it is to wait for a specific thing to happen. Even if the sneaky noble does 'hit' an assassin on the first few nights, who would believe him? And how would he get the point accross early without revealing his role (a pretty terrible turn of events, I'd say)? We might be waiting for a long time before we get around to 'Well, we better start lynching people, because this is getting us nowhere,' or something similar.

[Barkeep49]

Rule clarification. The rules about jail state that no one may use any special roles. This includes the Assassins ability to talk to one another or perform a kill. The ONLY thing a person may do in Jail is post in the thread (except the Rich Noble who may bribe the guards).

[hoopsguy]

OK, trying to think how the game is likely to be balanced. Here is a stream of thoughts on the topic ...

1.) Barkeep wanted the 18th player for balance.
2.) I'm guessing that the noble factions will have an equal number of players.
3.) I'm guessing that the total number of nobles vs assassins is somewhere from 3/1 to 6/1.

Three factions with five members each, plus three assassins. The assassins have the power to blackmail one the first night to trim the odds a little going forward. That sounds about right to me. Except for the fact that there would be a Fast Talking Noble on each faction, which would start to set the numbers up against the nobles pretty quickly if they get lucky.

Two factions with eight members each, plus two assassins is also a possibility. That might make more sense with the role of Fast Talking, plus the Blackmail.

it is possible that the Assassins will only put up with so many "fast talkers" before they will start to ignore such people.

The above quote is in regards to the fast talker. I'm guessing this means that if we have three factions that only two total fast talkers can be converted to provide some kind of balance.


Barkeep, I'm reading the blackmail as if the noble does not become an assassin, but his voting is negated. Is this accurate? It is a pretty big deal in terms of assassin victory conditions to understand this ...

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Barkeep, I'm reading the blackmail as if the noble does not become an assassin, but his voting is negated. Is this accurate? It is a pretty big deal in terms of assassin victory conditions to understand this ...

The blackmailing only works if a person is, or becomes, a Faction Leader. They are counted as an Assassin for number purposes (and point purposes if you were to execute/jail them), however they do not know who the Assassins are and cannot kill or communicate with the Assassins. I hope all that makes sense.

[hoopsguy]

I'm not sure that jail is a device that helps the nobles. The assassins have the ability to run a jailbreak on any given night. The nobles do not have any way to protect the jail. The assassins can continue to kill while their membership is in jail, then run a jailbreak which we can't stop when they get to a night action phase where they are uncomfortable with their numbers. I would rather have a minor victory thanks to the other faction being crowned than no victory thanks to an assassin triumph.

[dubb93]

How often does a sneaky noble (read: seer)

On average about 1 a game(and usually early). I'm NOT going to go out and issue lynch votes right off the bat as it would destroy any chance my personal faction has of winning if I'm voting for one of our own by mistake.

[hoopsguy]

Barkeep, thanks for the clarification. So the blackmail does potentially add to the assassin numbers in terms of a victory, if they are fortunate enough to hit a leader or see that person promoted to leader.

Next question - does the Noble Leader retain his status if jailed? Or does another member of his faction move up the ladder until the leader is freed? The rules seem to suggest that he only loses his title upon death, but I want to make sure everyone (well, me and anyone else who is interested) understands this correctly.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

The assassins can continue to kill while their membership is in jail, then run a jailbreak which we can't stop when they get to a night action phase where they are uncomfortable with their numbers.

If they run a jail break it would be a good sign that there was a significant number of assassins in the jail. Then we could begin the kill votes of the people in jail.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Next question - does the Noble Leader retain his status if jailed? Or does another member of his faction move up the ladder until the leader is freed? The rules seem to suggest that he only loses his title upon death, but I want to make sure everyone (well, me and anyone else who is interested) understands this correctly.

Yes the Noble Leader remains such while in jail.

[hoopsguy]

Dubb, I'm not sure I agree with that. They could be running well and stage a jailbreak whenever it gets to 2-3 people in jail just to make us leap to that kind of deduction. A jailbreak does not have to indicate that they are in trouble.

Without any ability to secure the jail even half the time I'm pretty concerned with stocking the jail (on a temporary basis) while the assassins are issuing toe tags to nobles.

[Joe]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Dubb, I'm not sure I agree with that. They could be running well and stage a jailbreak whenever it gets to 2-3 people in jail just to make us leap to that kind of deduction. A jailbreak does not have to indicate that they are in trouble.

Without any ability to secure the jail even half the time I'm pretty concerned with stocking the jail (on a temporary basis) while the assassins are issuing toe tags to nobles.

That could be a problem. Is there any limit to the # of jailbreaks they can do in the game?

[hoopsguy]

Each night the assassins may choose to kill someone or to free all those in jail

The good news is that they don't kill on jailbreak night. The bad news is that they kill every other night. Unless I'm missing something in the rules, which would work for me ...

I would like to have a game where I feel like Jail is a useful mechanism. But right now I don't think this game is it

[dubb93]

IDK right now, I'd still like everyone to take a close look at the risk/reward for lynching/jailing. I don't want the assassins to just pick us off, but I don't want to shoot my faction in the foot by lynching nobles and costing us points toward the crown.

And as far as the jailbreaks, anytime they run a jailbreak thats keeps nobles alive, but there will come a point when we have to start the lynch votes. Also, what are the odds of each faction having a seer type?

[Desnudo]

Checking in.

[Mr. Wednesday]

I think something getting overlooked in the discussion is the point total reporting. Now, we're going to have to execute someone to take advantage of that, but I'm wondering if it won't be more sensible to stagger between voting for executions and voting for jailings?

[Blade6119]

When does night 0 end and day one begin?

[Vince]

Originally Posted by dubb93

On average about 1 a game(and usually early). I'm NOT going to go out and issue lynch votes right off the bat as it would destroy any chance my personal faction has of winning if I'm voting for one of our own by mistake.

What makes you say usually early? By sheer probability, it's unlikely that the seer would ever get lucky early. It's happened a few times, but you're talking a 4/15 chance (absolutely TOPS...probably more like 2 or 3 in 15) chance of hitting a bad guy (change 15 to whatever the total number is in this game -- I'm a little drunk and a lot tired right now). I still think that jail votes before we get very far in the game are not helping the villager (noble) cause.

Either way, I'm glad this has sparked some debate -- I like hearing what other people have to say about this, because this is a fairly significant point in this game. Keep discussing! st. cronin -- I'd be happier if you gave a reason why you agreed with dubb that the Jail is a good thing for the villagers...even if you just want to mention that what dubb said is a good idea. What part of what dubb said is a good idea, and why do you agree with that part of his argument?

[Vince]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

I think something getting overlooked in the discussion is the point total reporting. Now, we're going to have to execute someone to take advantage of that, but I'm wondering if it won't be more sensible to stagger between voting for executions and voting for jailings?

I'm all for avoiding the lynching of an innocent noble. The only problem is that you need to ask yourself: "What do we gain by sending someone to jail?"

Differences between Jail and Lynch:

Jail:

• No one dies -- therefore, no innocent villagers can die.
  
• Less point penalty for hitting a villager with the votes.

[*]Con: No role reveal.[/list]
Lynch:

• Someone dies -- might be an assassin.
  
• Voting patterns begin to be established.
  
• Con: Severe point penalty.
  
• Con: Innocent Villager might die.

I think it's really not a benefit to us to jail someone (early, anyways), because it will do absolutely nothing to quell suspicion about someone who is successfully voted to be put in jail. So even if we 'win' a vote by putting someone in jail, it will do nothing to help us figure out who the assassins are...at least at first.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Vince

What makes you say usually early? By sheer probability, it's unlikely that the seer would ever get lucky early. It's happened a few times, but you're talking a 4/15 chance (absolutely TOPS...probably more like 2 or 3 in 15) chance of hitting a bad guy (change 15 to whatever the total number is in this game -- I'm a little drunk and a lot tired right now). I still think that jail votes before we get very far in the game are not helping the villager (noble) cause.

Either way, I'm glad this has sparked some debate -- I like hearing what other people have to say about this, because this is a fairly significant point in this game. Keep discussing! st. cronin -- I'd be happier if you gave a reason why you agreed with dubb that the Jail is a good thing for the villagers...even if you just want to mention that what dubb said is a good idea. What part of what dubb said is a good idea, and why do you agree with that part of his argument?

Basically, I am all for keeping nobles alive as long as possible. I sort of see the point about how lynching puts more pressure on people, thus giving more info to go on. otoh, voting data wasn't very helpful in the last game we played, and we just kept lynching innocent people over and over.

[Barkeep49]

You awake. There was a spirited discussion last night after the banquet about whether you should use the jail at all or simply kill those nobles suspected of being traitors. Either way the country is watching and waiting and a decision must be made today.

Day 1 has begun. Lynch deadline is 10 PM Eastern tonight. Lynching won't be processed until 1-2 hours after that when I return home.

[Blade6119]

VOTE MR. WEDNESDAY EXECUTE

Let the game begin

[st.cronin]

talk about a confusing message

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Basically, I am all for keeping nobles alive as long as possible. I sort of see the point about how lynching puts more pressure on people, thus giving more info to go on. otoh, voting data wasn't very helpful in the last game we played, and we just kept lynching innocent people over and over.

And voting data will go from Not Very Helpful to Utterly Useless if we throw folks in jail. That's just asking for us to be picked off night by night with not a clue who's killing us. I hate to come off as a 'lynch em all' voice here, but threatening people with a hanging' is still often the best (only?) way to really get the flow of logic going.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

VOTE MR. WEDNESDAY EXECUTE

Let the game begin

Uh. Any particular reason?

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Uh. Any particular reason?

Actually a dandy one, were i feel im sitting on higher then the 66% everyone else is that their a great kill...i dont care to go into details currently, but for me currently he has by far the best odds of being a good kill for me.