Inflation 2022 & 2023 discussion

[Edward64]

You can update the # bedrooms, baths, square ft etc. yourself. That's what I did when we finished the basement.

[miami_fan]

Citizens insurance rates will soon climb for thousands of Floridians

Yet another reason why your parents who came down here to retire are packing up and heading back up north.

[Edward64]

I've not been able to get any legit deals on 2-liter Cokes/Zeros for the past couple weeks. Kroger, Walmart and CVS are selling them for like $2.50+ "sale" price. I'm running low and will probably give in. Not willing to go for the generic Cokes.

Gas was < $3 a few weeks back. It's crept up to $3.20 or so.

On other news, my zillow house value is continuing to decrease. Down about 7.2% from high. Still ahead from when the pandemic started though.

[Edward64]

Ketchup going to be costing more.

There are some generic/store brands that are just as good for some items, but will say I prefer Heinz by a little bit.

I was telling wife the other day that Kroger grape jelly is just as good as Smuckers, I can't really tell the difference.

Kraft Heinz CEO: Inflation and supply shortages are here to stay for a while | CNN Business

Kraft Heinz CEO Miguel Patricio says higher inflation and supply issues are coursing through the food industry, forcing companies to adopt new strategies for everything from production to promotion to packaging.

And he doesn’t see an end to either issue anytime soon.

“We’ve already increased the prices that we were expecting this year, but I’m predicting that next year, inflation will continue, and as a consequence [we] will have other rounds of price increases,” Patricio said in an interview with CNN Business.

For its second quarter ended June 25, Kraft Heinz raised its prices overall by 12.4 percentage points compared to the year-earlier period. The company is scheduled to report third-quarter earnings on Wednesday.

Those supply issues are broader than the Covid era, however. A crushing three-year drought has led to a shortage of tomatoes, for example.

[GrantDawg]

Why did Biden cause a three year drought? These Demorats. *shakes head*

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[sterlingice]

How Profit Inflation Made Your Groceries So Damn Expensive

And, of course, across the board, industries are just taking advantage of the inflation narrative and their increasing oligopolies to pad their profits

SI

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Citizens insurance rates will soon climb for thousands of Floridians

Yet another reason why your parents who came down here to retire are packing up and heading back up north.

Just got my home insurance bill for 2023-2024. It went from $2,880.84 last year to $4,632.44. That is an increase of $1751.60. And that is with a 72% discount for hurricane mitigation.

Social Security is supposed to go up 8.7% next year. That means the average retired worker is going from $1,681 to $1,827 per month with the max going from from $3,345 to $3,627. The average couple is going from $2,734 to $2,972.

[Ksyrup]

My brother's in-laws live around Ft. Pierce, somewhat inland. Their HO insurance is $10K a year.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

How Profit Inflation Made Your Groceries So Damn Expensive

And, of course, across the board, industries are just taking advantage of the inflation narrative and their increasing oligopolies to pad their profits

SI

Yep, 53% of inflation costs right now are going directly to corperate profits while the historical average is closer to 13%

I'm sure the GOP is going to fix it.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Yep, 53% of inflation costs right now are going directly to corperate profits while the historical average is closer to 13%

I'm sure the GOP is going to fix it.

You know what will fix that? Tax cuts for the top 1% and companies and austerity for everyone else

SI

[Edward64]

Haven't found a good deal on 2-liter Cokes past couple weeks. They are about $2.50 when you buy 3 or more.

So I've been buying the 12-cans for 3x12 for about $13.

I know there's been "Diet Coke, No Caffeine". They are now selling cans of "Coke Zero, No Caffeine". It doesn't taste half bad.

[Edward64]

Been checking out truecar.com on a new Toyota Corolla. There was like a 8% premium earlier this year. Now it's < 1%.

Only one data point, but hope this means supply is getting much better.

[Edward64]

And we're complaining about our 8% inflation. But looks like most of their inflation is energy (oil? natural gas?).

Record inflation: Which countries in Europe are being worst hit as energy and food prices soar? | Euronews

In the eurozone, annual inflation is expected to have hit a new record high of 10.7 per cent in October, up from 9.9 per cent in September, according to the latest estimate of the bloc's statistics body Eurostat.
:
More than half of the eurozone countries recorded double-digit inflation rates in October, including Germany (11.6 per cent), Belgium (13.1 per cent) and the Netherlands (16.8 per cent). France showed the lowest rate, at 7.1 per cent.

Italy saw the biggest monthly increase in prices, with inflation jumping from 9.4 per cent in September to 12.8 per cent in October.

Energy prices were again the main drivers of eurozone inflation, with a 41.9 per cent year-on-year rise, compared with 40.7 per cent in September and 38.6 per cent in August.

[sterlingice]

iT's aLL bIdEN's fAULt!

SI

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

On other news, my zillow house value is continuing to decrease. Down about 7.2% from high. Still ahead from when the pandemic started though.

Zillow house price is now -8.8% from high. Still happy with the price but know it'll continue decreasing until we hit some sort of new equilibrium. Hoping it'll slow down some.

But then I did find 2-liter Coke Zeros for $1.50 so that makes up for it.

[Edward64]

Link has a chart of where CPI inflation is. Some samplings ...

Eggs are highest at +49%. I buy the Kroger brand and didn't notice the jump (if any). Airfare is next at +36% and followed closely by Butter at 34.2%.

Interestingly, Televisions & Smartphones are at -17% and -23%. I guess BF sales were better this year for those items. Beef at -5.2%.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/13/here...one-chart.html

Core CPI rose 0.2% in November, after a 0.3% reading in October — down significantly from 0.6% in September and August.

“One month doesn’t make a trend, or even two months, but the October and November readings are clearly a big step in the right direction,” Hunter said.

[henry296]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Link has a chart of where CPI inflation is. Some samplings ...

Eggs are highest at +49%. I buy the Kroger brand and didn't notice the jump (if any). Airfare is next at +36% and followed closely by Butter at 34.2%.

Interestingly, Televisions & Smartphones are at -17% and -23%. I guess BF sales were better this year for those items. Beef at -5.2%.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/13/here...one-chart.html

My wife commented over the weekend how much eggs cost. I think she said the 18 count was 6.09 for the normal store brand.

[Lathum]

I was at the store today and noticed a pint of Ben and Jerrys was ON SALE for $6.39

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by henry296

My wife commented over the weekend how much eggs cost. I think she said the 18 count was 6.09 for the normal store brand.

My wife corrected me. Kroger eggs were about $2.50'ish for a dozen earlier this year. It's now around $3.50'ish now, so still a pretty big jump.

[Brian Swartz]

Used cars and similar vehicle-related issues are where I notice it the most. There have been 6 tire price increases this year. 30-40% increase roughly in price there. A lot of people hanging on to their vehicles longer because they can't afford to replace them, so for people looking for a low-end beater, what you could get for $3k two years ago, now costs $5-6k, if you can find it which you often can't.

[Edward64]

Must be nice to get a 55% pay hike.

Hmmmm, have to check the exchange rate. I do want to visit the historic sites in Turkiye (and wonder how come CNBC hasn't started using Turkiye vs Turkey).

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/22/turk...isis-bite.html

Turkey announced a hike of its minimum wage by 55% Thursday, amid a cost of living crisis that has plunged millions into financial hardship, hammered small businesses and rendered many unable to afford basic goods.

The move is aimed at easing the impact of surging living costs, but economists worry it will further increase inflation. The country’s official rate of inflation is currently at a 24-year high of 84.4%.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in a televised speech from Ankara Thursday, said that the monthly minimum salary would be brought to 8,500 lira ($455) starting in 2023. More than 30% of Turkey’s workforce is on the minimum wage, according to Turkish officials.

There is also a political angle, country analysts say: Turkey’s general election is due to be held in June 2023.

[Edward64]

Unfortunate but it is true that it costs money to do all the shots and recommended vet visits.

Dog food is about $50-$60 a month. We have some arthritis pills that is $50-$60 a month. We had annual vet visit for shots, blood sample etc. that was about $300. Still worth it for us.

People are giving up pets. Blame inflation.

Thirty-five percent of pet owners in September said they were concerned about the expense of having a pet in the current economy, according to data from the American Pet Products Association trade group. Of those, half said they may have to give up their pet.

Veterinary and shelter officials say it is a troubling sign about the future of American pet ownership. Middle- and upper-class households are spoiling their companions with new toys, top-shelf foods and luxurious day care and boarding accommodations. Meanwhile, pet adoption for lower-income households is slipping out of reach.

The overwhelming majority of pet owners who have fewer animals now than three months ago say it’s because one of their pets died, APPA reported. But 14 percent said they could not afford to keep their pet, while 12 percent said their pet was re-homed and 9 percent said they could no longer take care of their pet for a variety of reasons.

[Edward64]

I think we are hitting some sort of inflection point on new cars.

I remember pre-Covid, you can get a Corolla below MSRP per TrueCar. For the past 2 years or so, its been significantly above MSRP but has been coming down recently.

I just checked and TrueCar is reporting that Corolla "average price" are available at below MSRP.

That's my typical strategy. Just tell the dealers -- no fuss, just the TrueCar average price, financing is yours if you can beat my pre-approved by .25, and definitely no stupid options.

[sovereignstar v2]

That TruCoat, you don't get it and you get oxidization problems.

Sent from my CPH2451 using Tapatalk

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by sovereignstar v2

That TruCoat, you don't get it and you get oxidization problems.

They install it at the factory!

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I think we are hitting some sort of inflection point on new cars.

Saw this blurb today. Be nice if the price war really does happen.

The U.S. car market has shifted into lower gear in only a matter of months. After average car prices hit record highs as recently as last summer, some analysts now predict that an oversupply of vehicles will lead to a price war that sends prices plummeting.

A recent report from UBS estimates that global car production will exceed sales by 6% this year, leaving an excess of 5 million vehicles that will require price cuts to get sold off of lots, Yahoo Finance reported. Although those price cuts might not happen until the latter half of 2023, automakers are preparing for a price war, and some electric vehicle makers are already slashing prices.

[Edward64]

UK apparently doesn't have 15 or 30-year fixed mortgages like in the US. Their fixed mortgages are for 2-5 years and then adjusted ... so more like adjustable rate ARMS.

Must really suck to worry about what your mortgage rate will be every 2-5 years.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/26/uk-m...nsolvency.html

The Bank of England last week hiked interest rates by 50 basis points to 5%, a bigger increase than many had expected. The BOE’s 13th consecutive rate rise takes the base rate to the highest level since 2008.

The surprise move — which is designed to lower inflation — will affect millions of homeowners as the interest rates on many mortgages in the U.K. are directly linked to the central bank’s base rate. Renters, too, are likely to see their payments increase as buy-to-let landlords pass on higher mortgage repayments.

“The rise in interest rates to 5% will push millions of households with mortgages towards the brink of insolvency,” said Max Mosley, an economist at NIESR. “No lender would expect a household to withstand a shock of this magnitude, so the government shouldn’t either.”

[Edward64]

Inflation is done

Dozen eggs at Walmart for $1.16

[Brian Swartz]

lol

[Edward64]

Spoke too soon. Have to go to Costco and buy a couple of their multi-packs.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/23/pork...t-pricier.html

Bacon is about to get even more expensive as wholesale pork belly prices approach record highs.

Pork belly prices rose over 100% year-to-date from 131.59 cents per pound to 270.89 cents at the end of July.

Oh, this inflation is self-inflicted ...

Analysts who spoke to CNBC attributed the surge in pork prices partly to a recently imposed animal welfare regulation in California, which came into effect July 1.

California’s Proposition 12 bans the sale of pork from farms that confine pregnant sows in tiny enclosures, and spaces that are less than 24-square-feet.

[Ghost Econ]

Weird how analysts and industry sources never say prices went up because, "we fucking felt like it."

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Just got my home insurance bill for 2023-2024. It went from $2,880.84 last year to $4,632.44. That is an increase of $1751.60. And that is with a 72% discount for hurricane mitigation.

Social Security is supposed to go up 8.7% next year. That means the average retired worker is going from $1,681 to $1,827 per month with the max going from from $3,345 to $3,627. The average couple is going from $2,734 to $2,972.

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Cheery reading for a likely future FL resident.

(I was aware already, it's just depressing a.f.)

Jon, I just wanted to give you a real world example.

We got our first bill for home insurance of one of our rental properties. Not in a flood zone, never filed a claim for this property. The bill went from $2,516.00 in 2021, to $4,233.98 last year which was an increase of 68.2822%. It has now gone from $4,233.98 to $6795 this year for a 60.4873% increase. That is a 170.072% increase in two years.

[Edward64]

New phrase to add to our lexicon.

'Immaculate disinflation' is the new economic buzzword. But what does it mean? | CNN Business

Economists added yet another term to their lexicon in recent months: immaculate disinflation.

While there’s no official definition of immaculate disinflation, the phrase is being used to describe a scenario where inflation cools without causing a spike in unemployment.

The supporting stats ...

In the United States, inflation cooled from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022 to 3.2% in July of this year, according to the latest Consumer Price Index. Yet the nation’s unemployment rate actually fell from 3.6% in June 2022 to 3.5% in July 2023. The current rate is 3.8%.

That’s leading some economists to believe that immaculate disinflation may be possible.

But not everyone is convinced.

Even President Joe Biden’s top economic adviser, Jared Bernstein, expressed skepticism about the term.

“I wouldn’t call this disinflation immaculate,” he said in a CNBC interview at last month’s Jackson Hole Fed conference. “There’s a good question as to what’s around the corner at the last mile,” he added.

“So we shouldn’t be that surprised that perhaps some of these typical relationships are not necessarily being borne at this time,” Mester said in a CNBC interview at Jackson Hole last month.

Like Powell, she is not banking on immaculate disinflation, saying it’s not yet clear how the full effects of the Fed’s cumulative rate hikes will play out.

[Brian Swartz]

I can't decide if I love or hate the term.

[Edward64]

Yeah, it's got 8 syllables so doesn't roll off the tongue.

[Ghost Econ]

Is that a new grid game where I have to match economists with their theories, policies and Economic stats?

[miami_fan]

So as not to derail the kids leaving home thread more than I did.

US is not prepared to house a growing number of older Americans

[Mota]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

So as not to derail the kids leaving home thread more than I did.

US is not prepared to house a growing number of older Americans

Canada is trying to prepare for this same demographic trend by growing their population through immigration by 3% in one year. Which is the highest growth rate of any developed country. It's also causing culture issues, and apartment rentals are increasing at record rates. It is one of the biggest housing bubbles in the world, with an insane cost of living crisis happening. Maybe trying to fix the demographic issue is causing bigger issues in the short term. Basically the Canadian social system has become a giant ponzi scheme.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Mota

Canada is trying to prepare for this same demographic trend by growing their population through immigration by 3% in one year. Which is the highest growth rate of any developed country. It's also causing culture issues, and apartment rentals are increasing at record rates. It is one of the biggest housing bubbles in the world, with an insane cost of living crisis happening. Maybe trying to fix the demographic issue is causing bigger issues in the short term. Basically the Canadian social system has become a giant ponzi scheme.

Is the goal of the increased immigration to increase production? Increase the tax base? Change the culture?

[Mota]

I think the goal is to have 4-5 working people for every retired person. Right now with the demographic getting older (as it is in every developed country), the ratio is quickly changing with more older people.
It is also adding more consumers to the economy. So the GDP number increases, even though our per capita GDP has been shrinking and is in the negatives. So it seems like we are throwing millions of consumers for our real estate investors and landlords, and fast food and grocery companies to grow.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Mota

Canada is trying to prepare for this same demographic trend by growing their population through immigration by 3% in one year. Which is the highest growth rate of any developed country. It's also causing culture issues, and apartment rentals are increasing at record rates. It is one of the biggest housing bubbles in the world, with an insane cost of living crisis happening. Maybe trying to fix the demographic issue is causing bigger issues in the short term. Basically the Canadian social system has become a giant ponzi scheme.

I know that Canada is more skills-based immigration vs family-based. A long time ago, I did the on-line questions (education level, profession etc.) and was "desirable". So, Canada is getting talent for the future.

(One thing I remember was age worked against an applicant. Older you were, the less desirable you were).

I know the housing prices were because of rich Chinese investing in Vancouver property (and assume the bigger cities also) but thought Canada cracked down on that.

I think overall Canada is easier to immigrate to for younger, more skilled workers. Which is a good thing. I'm a little surprised about the culture issues, I'd think the younger and more educated immigrants would assimilate pretty quickly.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Mota

I think the goal is to have 4-5 working people for every retired person. Right now with the demographic getting older (as it is in every developed country), the ratio is quickly changing with more older people.
It is also adding more consumers to the economy. So the GDP number increases, even though our per capita GDP has been shrinking and is in the negatives. So it seems like we are throwing millions of consumers for our real estate investors and landlords, and fast food and grocery companies to grow.

Apologies for the crude description. I find the disconnect between a nation's government and its society in general knowing that it needs its citizenry to replenish its workforce (preferably with people born and raised in said country) and the government's/society's willingness to make doing so a worthwhile proposition for the citizenry interesting. The country can't afford for the citizens not to have replenish the workforce. In theory it should want its citizenry especially if they want to maintain its "culture". At the same time. the country also demands that the citizens only have children they can afford and in many cases actively puts obstacles in place that make that almost impossible.