Werewolf LVI - Upstairs, Downstairs - GAME OVER, Guests WIN!

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Actually Lathum, its far more disturbing to me to see you, a notable high end player, choose to avoid voting for the players you know to be excellent at the game as well who voted the same way. it makes far more sense to take out those players than try and tag a newbie in this situation.

I totaly disagree. This is no slight on anyone who is a newer player but there is no way without any information am I voting for Cronin, Chiefrum, Barkeep, hoops, Path, or a few others. They are just way to valuable when they are on our side.

A vote for Cronin based on his play from last game IMO is just plain silly. If anything you would want him around based on his solid play. At least my vote was for a somewhat educated reason. If you wanna lynch me for it go ahead.

[Lathum]

dola- I find if interesting that by voting for me ArlingtonColt is doing exactly the thing Telle accused me of.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I'm all for a mass reveal. I don't think it would possibly work, but being a guest, I'm all for it.

A mass reveal might work on day one, but its probably worthless after that. I'm pondering what loopholes the two factions could use to get around being discovered this way.

I didn't see anything in the rules that said those were the only non character roles in the game, so what keeps the factions from lying through their proverbial fangs?

[Alan T]

I'm not sure what I think about Lathum just yet. He is arguing the same side as me regarding the no lynch, but I question his choice to go after Eaglefan vs the two others who had posted a no lynch vote by the time Lathum made his vote. I might be wrong about Eaglefan, but my thoughts are that someone (even someone who is pretty enthusiastic) playing in their second game of WW, as a first time wolf wouldn't necessarily come firing at the hip if he had a team to work with. My thought is if a newer player like Eaglefan was a part of a team, they might instead be more likely to wait and discuss a team strategy before committing to too much.

So I didn't really get a bad vibe from Eaglefan's vote.. and I honestly didn't really get a bad vibe from Olliegirl's vote (she seemed to have posted in a hurry, rushed, whatever and evidentally didnt really read much of the thread). Likewise Cronin's vote didn't bother me too much (he seems to vote no lynch every game without reason or any process of reasoning just to make a point).

The person I am leaning most to right now is DaddyTorgo who feels like he is riding the fence too much and being non-commital.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I totaly disagree. This is no slight on anyone who is a newer player but there is no way without any information am I voting for Cronin, Chiefrum, Barkeep, hoops, Path, or a few others. They are just way to valuable when they are on our side.

A vote for Cronin based on his play from last game IMO is just plain silly. If anything you would want him around based on his solid play. At least my vote was for a somewhat educated reason. If you wanna lynch me for it go ahead.

Thats just it Lathum, the bolded part is the exact reason to cull the herd so to speaqk, that herd in particular. We don't KNOW if they're on our side and with the killing ability available in this game, leaving any of them around very long is probably a lose/lose situation for everyone involved.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by RendeR

A mass reveal might work on day one, but its probably worthless after that. I'm pondering what loopholes the two factions could use to get around being discovered this way.

I didn't see anything in the rules that said those were the only non character roles in the game, so what keeps the factions from lying through their proverbial fangs?

I assume:

Since my role is listed as a role in the guest list that others who are guests as well will find the same.
Since there are 19 players and 19 listed roles that its likely there aren't unlisted roles.

The only problem I came up with a mass role reveal that I mentioned before was that we (the guests) are outnumbered currently by total other people.

Upstairs = 4 people + 1 supporter
Downstairs = 4 people + 1 supporter
Guests (non-supporters) = 9 people.

So if we did a mass role reveal today, we would outnumber either the upstairs or downstairs teams, however it would cause a crazy game to occur as the upstairs and downstairs could team up to ensure a guest was lynched today in their own self interest... plus they both would know who to go after..

It leaves alot of questionmarks that is for sure.. I think its a far more interesting thing to discuss though than people trying to push a no lynch vote when it doesn't make sense this game at least.

[RendeR]

I agree whole heartedlly that a no lynch is a terrible play in this type of game. So my only real quewtoin is, which of the most dangerous players (when they are wolfy) should we get rid of today?

I'd rather take down the hot shot players and take my chances with the less experienced ones.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by RendeR

I agree whole heartedlly that a no lynch is a terrible play in this type of game. So my only real quewtoin is, which of the most dangerous players (when they are wolfy) should we get rid of today?

I'd rather take down the hot shot players and take my chances with the less experienced ones.

This makes me shake my head.

[Lathum]

dola- I am out in a couple of minutes until after the deadline. My role is The Gadabout, pretty boring actually.

I am hoping by me revealing this first it buys some trust since it would be a HUGE chance to be the first person revealing and have it be a fake reveal, it would be pretty easy to get picked off.

[Barkeep49]

The fact of being out numbered doesn't concern me since one of the sides would have to work with the villagers to achieve their goals in any fashion. It's far more likely that we would be getting some fake reveals and have to sort through that. I also do think it's possible for there to be some secret roles, but that is not the simplest solution for reasons Alan pointed out. However, I like that situation better than others. I agree a D1 reveal is the way to go. I'll say that I'm the Vicar.

[Lathum]

dola- I am out until after the deadline.

[ArlingtonColt]

I'm the socialite.... hence the not comfortable in my own skin comment from earlier.... I'm still on the fence as to who to vote for though.

[PurdueBrad]

Out until closer to deadline but I've got to be honest, I'm not sold on revealing right now. Those of you that have, that's fine but I guess I'm not seeing it. I guess when we all reveal, the wolves can target each other by process of elimination but it also says, "Hey, come and get me."

[Alan T]

Well it really is up to the non-guests (Can we call them wolves in this game? It feels more like three individual teams than wolves vs vvillagers here). Going in they already know who isn't on their team for the most part (since they can already communicate with each other). The only thing they do not know is who the guest that sympathizes with them is. That is the main reason I brought up the reveal idea in the first place.. this gives us information that helps us more than it helps them.

Also at least in the case of my role, the name of my role doesn't really directly relate to what my ability is that comes with the role. So I am assuming that is likely the case with other guest roles.. so I was a bit less worried about suddenly any seer type role that we may have outing themselves for easy pickings.

I still am a bit worried about what play becomes of this.. Since the guests can't win until day 4, I assume the upstairs and downstairs teams pick each other off at least tonight.. but they can't do that the entire time, they will have to come after us too.. and I'm not sure how that plays out when we don't have the numbers on our side.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Lathum

dola- I am out in a couple of minutes until after the deadline. My role is The Gadabout, pretty boring actually.

I am hoping by me revealing this first it buys some trust since it would be a HUGE chance to be the first person revealing and have it be a fake reveal, it would be pretty easy to get picked off.

I'm not sure how revealing your role buys you trust as some guests also have an alliance with the upstairs or downstairs.

Guests

The Professor
The Gossip
The Vicar
The Colonel
The Gadabout
The Lush
The Socialite
The Eccentric
The Daughter
The Elderly Gent
The Neighbor

of this list I would only eliminate on "name only" if I had to 2-3 and the other's, mine and yours included, could easily be considered an ally.

[path12]

The main thing that stands out to me is RendeR going so hard after Cronin/experienced players. Stands out enough to get my day 1 vote, though it could easily be said that he's coming out too strongly to be bad...

VOTE RENDER

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by path12

The main thing that stands out to me is RendeR going so hard after Cronin/experienced players. Stands out enough to get my day 1 vote, though it could easily be said that he's coming out too strongly to be bad...

VOTE RENDER

My reasoning is simple, when the best players are on the bad side, they tend to win and win easily. Cronin in the last game is a god example of how even a lone wolf can manage to manipulate everyone into trusting him. With the dual factions setup of this game that danger is multiplied.
In a game where the 'bad guys' outnumber us good guys from the very beginning I think its just too dangerous to not go after the elite players as soon as possible.

*shrugs* thats just my opinion.

[Telle]

Originally Posted by Lathum

dola- I am out in a couple of minutes until after the deadline. My role is The Gadabout, pretty boring actually.

I am hoping by me revealing this first it buys some trust since it would be a HUGE chance to be the first person revealing and have it be a fake reveal, it would be pretty easy to get picked off.

But even if that's true, you could very well be one of the supporters. So even if we know that you're a guest that doesn't mean you can be trusted.

[RendeR]

Ok, I'm out till late late. Sorry to miss the deadlines tonight. I'll check in as soon as I can later.

[st.cronin]

I would actually argue that EagleFan played a stronger game than me, last time. At least, it really wasn't MUCH worse.

[oliegirl]

I'm fine with revealing my role...I'm the Colonel

All moved in, am at my parents picking up some stuff and then leaving, not sure if I'll be able to get access from the new place or not, so this might be my last post of the night.

I don't have a real reason to distrust someone enough to vote for them tonight, which is my reason for the No Lynch vote...I've never done a no lynch vote before because I hate them, and if I was going to be around to read and analyze things today, I'd probably vote differently. But I can't in good conscious vote for someone just to vote for them, I need some sort of a justifiable reason...if someone wants to try to convince me, make a case against another player, go for it...if I can hop on tonight I will, otherwise it will give me something to consider for tomorrow nights vote.

[Alan T]

For all of the no lynch fans out there.. I'll try to put a convincing arguement here via mathematics..

Assuming we don't know anything about people being the sympathizer in the guest ranks, we'll not look at that currently. With 4 reveals so far in the guest ranks, and no one disputing any claims, if you are a guest you can assume that you have 5 people you won't vote for (yourself and those 4).

So that leaves 14 people that you have to choose from to vote for. Out of those 14 people, 10 are not guests.

So any guest voting today, has a 71% chance of nailing someone that is not a guest today based on pure luck.

You mean to tell me you aren't going to take a shot in the dark that is better than a 2/3 chance of being right?

I definitly will be voting for someone who either votes for one of the revealed guests (without disputing the role), or someone who votes no lynch today.

Voting no lynch today is a very anti-guest move and I will punish for that.

[Alan T]

Dola,

I obviously will not be voting for Olliegirl for voting a no lynch as she has revealed as a guest role.. but I am definitly going to try to convince her that she is making a mistake. But its very obvious to me that if there ever was a day 1 to take a shot in the dark, its today. Try to nail a bad guy.. 2 of 3 people out there that you have to choose from are bad.. You have to have very bad luck to be wrong.

[DaddyTorgo]

VOTE ALAN T

I have 2 posts in the game so far and he's calling me out for sitting on the fence and being noncommittal? Could be a wolfish ploy to try to get a run on a villager on Day 1 since I have been dying Day 1 a lot lately it doesn't take a lot to get the run started.

Could also just be Alan with his usual suspiscion of me.

[Neon_Chaos]

List:
oliegirl - The Colonel
Arlington - The Socialite
Barkeep - Vicar

Has Alan T given up his role yet? He's the one who pushed for it.

[Neon_Chaos]

dola, seems like he hasn't.

oliegirl - the Colonel
Arlington - the Socialite
Lathum - the Gadabout
Barkeep - Vicar

It was your idea to reveal roles Alan T. I suggest that you reveal yours, or my vote is moving on to you.

[Barkeep49]

Neon, I'm glad you brought this up since I thought I must have just missed it. I take it you don't want to reveal then?

[Peregrine]

To clarify your night actions. Everyone should be giving me two actions, one for the Early Night phase and one for the Late Night phase. If you only give me one action, I will assume you do it Early and sleep Late.

[Neon_Chaos]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Neon, I'm glad you brought this up since I thought I must have just missed it. I take it you don't want to reveal then?

As I said earlier, I am willing to reveal. I just want to figure out first if AlanT is just trying a wolf trying to weed out the other wolf team by eliminating the revealed roles.

[Alan T]

I am the professor

Vote Neon_Chaos

I'm out until after lynch time tonight. Good luck guests.. Hope we are able to push through and force a lynch for those who are pushing against us.

[MrBug708]

Everytime I see the word vicar, I think back of the one friends episode where Joey finds Rachel's romance novel and thinks she's reading dirty books

[Neon_Chaos]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I am the professor

Vote Neon_Chaos

I'm out until after lynch time tonight. Good luck guests.. Hope we are able to push through and force a lynch for those who are pushing against us.

Alrightie then.

I am The Elderly Gent.

You really love voting for me, don't you?

[Neon_Chaos]

oliegirl - the Colonel
Arlington - the Socialite
Lathum - the Gadabout
Barkeep - the Vicar
Neon_Chaos - the Elderly Gent
Alan T - the Professor

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Out until closer to deadline but I've got to be honest, I'm not sold on revealing right now. Those of you that have, that's fine but I guess I'm not seeing it. I guess when we all reveal, the wolves can target each other by process of elimination but it also says, "Hey, come and get me."

This post troubles me. We already had 3 role reveals when this post was made and it's entirely possible there were going to be more before deadline. I don't see it as a target getting move, especially when the field of targets is going to be large.

[SnDvls]

it's tied 2-2 right now with Lathum & St. C and I don't like anyone with only one vote so I'll add a new name to the list I guess.

since he hasn't checked in so it's a placeholder pending his checking in.

vote Gonzo


didn't see anything in this thread saying he'd be out

[Neon_Chaos]

Barkeep, any idea who we should vote for?

I'm thinking of switching my no-lynch over to st.cro.

[ntndeacon]

Since ican't think of anyone else to vote for. I will go after Gonzo as well. That way we have a 3 way tie for 1st.

Vote Gonzo

[Neon_Chaos]

Unvote no-lynch
Vote Gonzo

Off to play CoH.

[DaddyTorgo]

UNVOTE ALAN T

VOTE NEON CHAOS

[path12]

BTW, I'm the eccentric. (No, I'm not). (Yes, I am).

[DaddyTorgo]

Neon's move there seems wolfish to me. And it's D1 and that's the best I have to go on

[Peregrine]

Looks like No Lynch and Gonzo are tied. (edit-sheesh, I can't add.) Still 4 no voters.

No Lynch - Eaglefan, oliegirl, st. cronin
st cronin - Barkeep49, RendeR
eaglefan - Lathum
DaddyTorgo - RPI-Fan
Lathum - Telle, ArlingtonColt
render - Path12
Neon_Chaos - Alan T, DaddyTorgo
Gonzo - SnDvls, ntndeacon, Neon_Chaos

[PurdueBrad]

I'm sort of back. Right now:

Vote Neon_Chaos

[PurdueBrad]

How important do we think searching for evidence is? I get the value of seeing someone do an attack (a la what happened to me last game). Is evidence the same kind of thing? Like we would find a paystub that says so and so is a worker? It seems that if we are going to be aggressive and reveal, we should be aggressive night two and start to actively pursue evidence if this is the case.

[Peregrine]

The evidence isn't anything specific, it's just some kind of generic thing like a dropped shoe "Then SoandSo must be the murderer!" It's basically just a way to control the voting a bit, or put a lot of extra pressure on someone. It would be equally good for the teams or the guests.

[PurdueBrad]

Peregrine, thanks for the quick response. So it comes down to how safe we want to play it. What are others' feelings on searching for evidence? I'm up for trying tonight.

[Peregrine]

Well the voting has passed and it's a tie! There are three votes for No Lynch, three votes for Gonzo, and three votes for Neon_Chaos. The Inspector listens to all your explanations about who the guilty party is, looks to the body, pauses a while with a glazed look in his eye, then finally says, "Well it's a hangin', isn't it? Guess no one's to blame. Well then, I'll take this body and get out of the way. Enjoy the party!"

No lynch tonight.

[Barkeep49]

Ok so we're past deadline right?

[Peregrine]

Get your actions to me by midnight if you haven't already!

[DaddyTorgo]

fucking no lynch bullshit.

grrrrr