WW XCII Athens -- Destroyed by Wolves!

[hoopsguy]

(inner monologue) "there were chariots in Athens, right? Hmm, I know there were in Rome ..."

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

I am announcing for the record that my early vote went to The Norm. Although obviously I'd like to be the ephor, since I am the only person I know to be a villager, I can;t vote for myself, so I went with a newer player to make sure he gets a fun role in his first game.

I would love to be the Ephor as well, for similar reasoning as well as the fact that I've never had a pure duke role (only "Them Gays", which was a modified duke). That said, I'll likely cast my vote for a publicly declared candidate. Right now, we only have one and that is TheNorm by virtue of Abe's declared vote.

Obviously, if people would prefer not to have public duke discussion then I'll just go ahead and vote for someone.

TheNorm - will you have daytime availability and be around near the deadline on a regular basis? I do not think it is necessarily fair to expect every day for the entire game, but does your schedule give you a realistic chance for at least the first couple of days?

[Chief Rum]

Hmm, a little troubled by having a public discussion for the role of Ephor, but I can acknowledge that hoops is exactly right that by failing to focus our votes, we might allow the choice to fall into the hands of the wolves.

But how dangerous is it? We know from what Pass has said that we are likely to have two wolves in this city, with possibly the EHist as well. The EHist cannot communicate with the wolves (nor does he know who they are), so they can't work together on this one. That means we have a "pooling danger" of two votes. So if we make sure someone gets at least three votes, we remove the danger of the wolves by themselves picking the Ephor.

Technically, four votes is better. If some villager unluckily picks a wolf to back (very likely, with 7 of 9 villagers randomly having a 77.8% chance of voting for a villager, the odds that no wolf receives a villager vote for Ephor is a miniscule 17%), four votes gives us a lot more protection.

A landslide vote for the Ephor gives us clear protection from the wolves, if we chose the subject of that voting carefully (although we have so little information right now, it's impossible to make a reasoned choice). But a landslide vote also clearly identifies the Ephor, and I am not ready yet to make the leap others have been the last game or two, that the Ephor is not an automatic kill for the wolves, especially given no other choices.

Hmm, in fact, I might even have a better idea, combining the need for protection from allowing the wolves to dictate the Ephor choice with our need to introduce a little question into the Ephor's identity.

[Lathum]

Question

IT says in the rules that the wolves may send one of their own to Hades and they are then revealed as a villager.

I am a little confused by this, do they become a villager or are they revealed as villager but stay a wolf?

[Chief Rum]

Okay, how about this: two Ephor candidates. We can make TheNorm be one. TheNorm is at the bottom of the list. I immediately jumped to the top of the list to pick a second candidate, but that's Abe, who picked out TheNorm. I'm not inclined to make the second Ephor candidate the guy who picked out TheNorm, which would be a ballsy play for a potential wolf to make, but not unheard of. So I drop down one and get Eaglefan.

Okay, so let's say we have TheNorm and Eaglefan be our Ephor candidates. Nothing set in stone, of course--if Athens wants different candidates, fine, but let's decide quick and work together to get it done.

Here's my plan. Six villagers will automatically vote publically and for either of these two candidates. It will be three votes for one, three votes for the other. The remaining three voters will not announce their votes, but merely send in the PM, and will choose from the two candidates. In that way, we get protection from wolf manipulation, but at least make the Ephor's identity a little more difficult to pin down.

I'll post the city list in the next post and lay out how this would go (ideally). As always, this is just an idea, I am throwing out there, so if anyone has an issue or sees a serious problem or has a better idea, please say so.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Question

IT says in the rules that the wolves may send one of their own to Hades and they are then revealed as a villager.

I am a little confused by this, do they become a villager or are they revealed as villager but stay a wolf?

Pass will have to confirm, of course, but I always thought that wolf stays a wolf, but is revealed here as a villager. So, basically that means we can't trust that a reveal of the wolf kill is 100% a villager.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Question

IT says in the rules that the wolves may send one of their own to Hades and they are then revealed as a villager.

I am a little confused by this, do they become a villager or are they revealed as villager but stay a wolf?

Revealed as a villager, but stay a wolf.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Hmm, a little troubled by having a public discussion for the role of Ephor, but I can acknowledge that hoops is exactly right that by failing to focus our votes, we might allow the choice to fall into the hands of the wolves.

But how dangerous is it? We know from what Pass has said that we are likely to have two wolves in this city, with possibly the EHist as well. The EHist cannot communicate with the wolves (nor does he know who they are), so they can't work together on this one. That means we have a "pooling danger" of two votes. So if we make sure someone gets at least three votes, we remove the danger of the wolves by themselves picking the Ephor.

Technically, four votes is better. If some villager unluckily picks a wolf to back (very likely, with 7 of 9 villagers randomly having a 77.8% chance of voting for a villager, the odds that no wolf receives a villager vote for Ephor is a miniscule 17%), four votes gives us a lot more protection.

A landslide vote for the Ephor gives us clear protection from the wolves, if we chose the subject of that voting carefully (although we have so little information right now, it's impossible to make a reasoned choice). But a landslide vote also clearly identifies the Ephor, and I am not ready yet to make the leap others have been the last game or two, that the Ephor is not an automatic kill for the wolves, especially given no other choices.

Hmm, in fact, I might even have a better idea, combining the need for protection from allowing the wolves to dictate the Ephor choice with our need to introduce a little question into the Ephor's identity.

Since only the wolves know each other it still is just as likely that our "decision" ends up being a wolf. It's just like a random day one vote, only this one we can't see the votes to analyze them.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Pass will have to confirm, of course, but I always thought that wolf stays a wolf, but is revealed here as a villager. So, basically that means we can't trust that a reveal of the wolf kill is 100% a villager.

This is true. Actually the wolves can clinch Hades if they "night kill" every one of them early without allowing a villager into Hades.

[Chief Rum]

Okay, here's the list:

Athens
------
Abe Sargent-- TheNorm
EagleFan-- TheNorm
USFLTecmo-- Eaglefan
Lathum-- silent vote
hoopsguy-- TheNorm
MartinD-- silent vote
Schmidty-- silent vote
Chief Rum-- Eaglefan
TheNorm-- Eaglefan

I bolded the suggested candidates. Green votes for the two players who already said where they would vote.

TheNorm necessarily votes for Eaglefan. Eaglefan necessarily votes for TheNorm.

TheNorm public voters would then be set. I will put myself down as a public Eaglefan voter, so that no one thinks the the "plan creator" is manipulating things by setting up the plan with himself as one of the silent voters.

Of the four remaining voters, I had to pick one of Lathum, Schmidty, USFLTecmo and MartinD for the third Eaglefan vote. I didn't really have a pattern to follow there, so I just went from the top of the list Pass posted above and made USFL the third Eaglefan vote.

So that means our silent "Ephor-makers" would be Lathum, MartinD and Schmidty. Seems to me to be a good mix, no obvious connections among the three, with a balance of veteran players and new board members.

How does that work with everyone?

[Chief Rum]

Okay, I selected EF as stated above, not knowing he was right there to post. If that is suspicious to anyone, we can find another candidate.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

This is true. Actually the wolves can clinch Hades if they "night kill" every one of them early without allowing a villager into Hades.

But if they lynch themselves to Hades, they lose the cities. And they need to control two cities to win.

[hoopsguy]

I'm fine with whatever two candidates that we select, provided that they both state that they will have daytime availability to read the thread and make an informed duke decision near the deadline. From there, I'll play along with a modified version of Chief's plan or whatever others think makes sense.

I do not want to elect a duke that will not be in position to make good decisions with his ability based on the deadlines for this game.

With that in mind, I do not think that Chief Rum would make a good candidate, despite his very solid duke performance last game. Chief, please tell me differently if you have alternate hours this week.

MartinD, knowing you are on the other side of the world I'm guessing this deadline would be tough for you as well.

Outside of that, I do not know of anyone whose hours would preclude them from Ephor-dom.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

But if they lynch themselves to Hades, they lose the cities. And they need to control two cities to win.

I know, just trying to put the thought in their heads...

[EagleFan]

As much as I would like to try out the "duke" role I may not be the best choice for deadline availability. The mid afternoon deadline may be a tough one for me to definitely be on for.

[Chief Rum]

I do still work at the same time, but I am now able to get to FOFC using one of the firewall workarounds that have been circulated here. That said, I'm not particularly anxious to be Ephor, as I don't like to spend much time at work reading FOFC (I have a ton of work right now, and it doesn't get done if I don't do it).

I agree that the Ephor needs to be available at deadline and able to stay up on what's going on in the thread, so hoops is right that before we proceed as is here, TheNorm and Eaglefan need to confirm that they can serve this sort of role. Or other candidates requested (although I don't think we should have an open candidacy because that just opens the process to further manipulation).

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

As much as I would like to try out the "duke" role I may not be the best choice for deadline availability. The mid afternoon deadline may be a tough one for me to definitely be on for.

Maybe Lathum then? TheNorm is new to the board (regardless of his WW experience elsewhere), so we should make the second duke option someone who has more familiarity with the veteran players here at FOFC, I think.

[EagleFan]

I'm already voting Lathum for one thing, might as well make it two.

[EagleFan]

With that said, CR is coming off a game where he was a superstar of a duke...

[EagleFan]

I like the extra dynamic of this game. Hades could become the final showdown for the game or completely useless.

[EagleFan]

Has Lathum ever been this quiet? Wolf!!!! Wolf!!!!!

[Lathum]

I need to know if the duke will also be around at deadlines.

I also have a problem voting for EF since he already cast a vote for me. I know I'm not a wolf and him voting me elevates my suspicion of him.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Has Lathum ever been this quiet? Wolf!!!! Wolf!!!!!

my friends took me out for my birthday yesterday and I am really hung over today.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Maybe Lathum then? TheNorm is new to the board (regardless of his WW experience elsewhere), so we should make the second duke option someone who has more familiarity with the veteran players here at FOFC, I think.

I have noon availablity every day FWIW

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I need to know if the duke will also be around at deadlines.

I also have a problem voting for EF since he already cast a vote for me. I know I'm not a wolf and him voting me elevates my suspicion of him.

I'm voting for you for both votes "today". I guess I am just confused.

I had no choice but vote for you, Pass' answer alone led to the logic behind the vote (which is pretty sound logic if you ask me ).

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Lathum

my friends took me out for my birthday yesterday and I am really hung over today.

Happy Birthday!!!

[Chief Rum]

Yeah, happy birthday, Lathum.

[hoopsguy]

I would prefer that we not vote off the person who is going to be Ephor. So there is a decent secondary benefit to having some public discussion on them ... there is not a lot of reason to put votes on the guys we are thinking of making our duke before they can use the ability.

It is not going to be an informed vote, but that doesn't mean we should just burn it when we have a statistical probability of giving it to a villager.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Happy Birthday!!!

thanks, I'm told I had fun

[TheNorm]

More often than not, I'm available around that timeframe--I'll be at work Tuesday-Friday at those times, but I can get online around that time.

[hoopsguy]

I'm fine with TheNorm vs Lathum as our public candidates. I'll cast my vote where I'm supposed to, per the Chief Rum plan (substituting Lathum for EF).

EF (instead of Lathum), MartinD, and Schmidty still cool as our silent voters?

[Chief Rum]

Awesome, both TheNorm and Lathum seem down and available for this. hoops has it right.

So here's how it goes:

The following vote for TheNorm: Abe Sargent, hoopsguy, Lathum
The following vote for Lathum: Chief Rum, TheNorm, USFLTecmo

The following vote for EITHER TheNorm or Lathum silently, not announcing their votes: Schmidty, Eaglefan, MartinD

And, hoops, you're still on TheNorm per the plan. I figure you just miswrote that in this last post and meant you will vote TheNorm.

[hoopsguy]

Yeah, I'll vote TheNorm. I should have been more clear about what I was typing above, as it certainly makes sense how that could have been misinterpreted.

[hoopsguy]

BTW, we have 40 more posts and 100 more views than the slackers from Sparta

[EagleFan]

unvote Lathum

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

BTW, we have 40 more posts and 100 more views than the slackers from Sparta

Spartans down 40... I guess we're the Athens Tarheels?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

BTW, we have 40 more posts and 100 more views than the slackers from Sparta

Heh...there was a brief time earlier today where Sparta moved two posts ahead of us. I basically said screw that, and started my series of postings about the rules and interpretations.

BTW, anyone have any takes on what I suggested as possible considerations given the rule set? About where the wolves might be, how many we're dealing with, or what our strategy should be as a city?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Spartans down 40... I guess we're the Athens Tarheels?

Ouch...that might earn you a vote from Jay.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Heh...there was a brief time earlier today where Sparta moved two posts ahead of us. I basically said screw that, and started my series of postings about the rules and interpretations.

BTW, anyone have any takes on what I suggested as possible considerations given the rule set? About where the wolves might be, how many we're dealing with, or what our strategy should be as a city?

I think we should try to play this like it's a small game. If we win our city than we can concentrate on Hades if the slackers from Sparta don't hold up their side.

I am guessing 2 wolves here and 3 in Sparta.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

I am guessing 2 wolves here and 3 in Sparta.

Any reason why? Because they have 10 inhabitants to our 9? Or some other reason?

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Heh...there was a brief time earlier today where Sparta moved two posts ahead of us. I basically said screw that, and started my series of postings about the rules and interpretations.

BTW, anyone have any takes on what I suggested as possible considerations given the rule set? About where the wolves might be, how many we're dealing with, or what our strategy should be as a city?

Quick post before going to bed for night:
1.) Guessing 4 wolves between cities plus the anti-seer.
2.) Guessing 2-2 split between cites.
3.) No idea on city strategy. Historically, I would like to rout Sparta but I'm not sure it is a winning play at this stage of the game. I suspect that this may change as we see how the first couple of days develop.

The wolves/city split is mainly based on tidyness as a moderator. From a % and balance sense, they seem like the "right" numbers. I think an uneven # of wolves plus a seer seems a little imbalanced, especially with them able to talk cross-city. I do not completely accept random.org for wolf distribution, as that could leave one city DOA and another with no chance of wolf victory save villagers leading an attack on the other city. Even a 3-1 split seems kinda dodgy.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Nothing quite so advanced -- I just made sure each city had its own Marathon Runner and Phoenix, and that the wolves were balanced between cities (same number of wolves in each city if the number of wolves is even, and one apart if the number of wolves is odd), and that's it.

Guess that I was correct on the "tidyness" - went back looking through earlier posts when I saw EF's assumption of five wolves.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Quick post before going to bed for night:
1.) Guessing 4 wolves between cities plus the anti-seer.
2.) Guessing 2-2 split between cites.
3.) No idea on city strategy. Historically, I would like to rout Sparta but I'm not sure it is a winning play at this stage of the game. I suspect that this may change as we see how the first couple of days develop.

The wolves/city split is mainly based on tidyness as a moderator. From a % and balance sense, they seem like the "right" numbers. I think an uneven # of wolves plus a seer seems a little imbalanced, especially with them able to talk cross-city. I do not completely accept random.org for wolf distribution, as that could leave one city DOA and another with no chance of wolf victory save villagers leading an attack on the other city. Even a 3-1 split seems kinda dodgy.

Yeah, I asked Pass about the breakdown, and he said the wolves would be split evenly, straight even if an even number of wolves, or within one if odd. He didn't mention how the EHist would be placed, except that he suggested earlier to another question from me that the placement of the EHist is random, and not related to the placement or allegiance of other roles. I only bring that up to say it's still technically possible with 3 wolves that we have one wolf and not even have the EHist. I don't believe that's true (I said earlier I think it's 2-2 city split, with the EHist in one or the other), but I have to toss out it's possible if there are just 3 wolves.

[Schmidty]

I work monday, tuesday, thursday, and friday until 5 p.m. EST. I won't be around after 12 p.m. EST. Just letting everyone know.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Guess that I was correct on the "tidyness" - went back looking through earlier posts when I saw EF's assumption of five wolves.

Oh, yeah, I saw EF's 5 as including the EHist, but I think that was my own assumption. I agree with hoops, I don't see there being 5 wolves in the game. Pass said all the roles are in the game, and that means the EHist is active, too. I don't see there being an evil villager and 5 wolves in a 19-person game.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

I work monday, tuesday, thursday, and friday until 5 p.m. EST. I won't be around after 12 p.m. EST. Just letting everyone know.

Cool, as long as you can get in your secret Ephor vote. You're one of the three "quiet voters" we have set out in my plan above.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Any reason why? Because they have 10 inhabitants to our 9? Or some other reason?

Just guessing 5 wolves based on 19 players but it could be 4. If it is 5 wolves it would seem to make more sense to have the 3 wolves be in the city with 10 instead of the city with 9 (7-2 and 7-3 seems to make more sense than 6-3 and 8-2).

[EagleFan]

Hmmmm, CR seems to be pretty set on the number of wolves. Were there just 3 others in your PM CR?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Hmmmm, CR seems to be pretty set on the number of wolves. Were there just 3 others in your PM CR?

Naw, 5 is way too many with a 6th player against us in the EHist. hoops agrees with me there, too. No way the wolves get one-third of the players to start.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Naw, 5 is way too many with a 6th player against us in the EHist. hoops agrees with me there, too. No way the wolves get one-third of the players to start.

My problem is that I don't read rules well. I agree that 6 total is too many. My guess of 5 should have really been 5 evil roles then. With that said I would think 2 + 2 with the othe role being in Sparta, just for the numbers game.

I could be wrong, it wouldn't be the first time.