What's the ideal strategy for this playoff football pool?

[QuikSand]

2020 Version up and running

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[QuikSand]

To save you the look-back... if you're playing to win the game (thank you, Herm) then your goal is to guess the SB matchup, and load up enough to be the top scorer in the SB game... but you need to make the cut each stage until then. Winning big in an early week to only have a modest play in the SB might get you a more drawn-out death, but you can't win that way.

So... pick your SB matchup, load up on those teams, with at least one weirdo player, and then fill in with enough guys to survive the first two weeks.

[Warhammer]

I think this year you load up on SEA. I w old definitely take Wilson as QB at least. They play WC weekend and I think they have a very good chance of coming out of the NFC.

[QuikSand]

If you're convinced that Lynch will be a bellcow back for them, then Seattle isn't too expensive to play. I agree that picking one non-bye team seems like the safest play to stay alive through the first two weeks... but they've priced in New Orleans anticipating them as the likeliest three-game team, it seems. I have a BAL/MIN entry put in that I think would be very strong if those two make the SuperBowl, which I don't forecast at all, but the math works out pretty well.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

I have a BAL/MIN entry put in that I think would be very strong if those two make the SuperBowl, which I don't forecast at all, but the math works out pretty well.

well, ok then

[Maple Leafs]

I plugged in an initial placeholder lineup that was heavy on BAL and SF but with a few TEN and a couple of SEA. Then I forgot to go back and update it. So far so good!

[QuikSand]

They haven't published the cutoff yet, but:

This entry is still alive.

18
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Steve Hauschka $7 18.50


Ryan Tannehill $14 9.70
Greg Joseph $4 4.00



Lamar Jackson $40 0.00
Mark Ingram $25 0.00
Willie Snead $7 0.00
Mark Andrews $18 0.00
Hayden Hurst $6 0.00
Justin Tucker $13 0.00
Baltimore Ravens $13 0.00

Marshawn Lynch $12 10.20
Seattle Seahawks $11 7.00

Jake Elliott $5 11.40

Kirk Cousins $15 18.00
Dalvin Cook $18 26.50
Alexander Mattison $5 3.50
Stefon Diggs $12 4.70
Irv Smith $5 0.00
Dan Bailey $7 11.30
Minnesota Vikings $8 7.00


Mason Crosby $5 0.00


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL 105.30
CUTOFF 0.00

[Maple Leafs]

#TeamPurple

[QuikSand]

It looks like fewer than 4,000 entries were received, so they didn't eliminate anyone in the first weekend. Not sure that would have altered my thinking much, but it does suggest that playing more heavily amidst the bye teams is viable, unless they rethink the tiers for next year.

[QuikSand]

It's up again for this season, sorry for the late bump...

QB RB WR TE PK Def
J Allen BUF - 40
P Mahomes KC - 39
A Rodgers GB - 36
D Brees NO - 30
T Brady TB - 28
L Jackson BAL - 28
R Wilson SEA - 25
B R'berger PIT - 22
R Tannehill TEN - 20
T Hill NO - 13
B Mayfield CLE - 13
P Rivers IND - 12
J Wolford LAR - 12
M Trubisky CHI - 11
A Smith WAS - 8

A Kamara NO - 28
A Jones GB - 25
R Jones TB - 19
C Carson SEA - 18
C Ed'-Helaire KC - 17
D Henry TEN - 16
D Singletary BUF - 16
J Dobbins BAL - 15
N Chubb CLE - 13
Z Moss BUF - 13
L Murray NO - 13
J Conner PIT - 12
J Williams GB - 12
L Fournette TB - 11
J Taylor IND - 11
L Bell KC - 9
D Montgomery CHI - 9
C Akers LAR - 8
G Edwards BAL - 8
A Gibson WAS - 8
K Hunt CLE - 8
N Hines IND - 7
A Dillon GB - 6
J McKissic WAS - 6
C Hyde SEA - 4
Dar Williams KC - 4
M Brown LAR - 3
C Patterson CHI - 3
B Snell PIT - 3
A Collins SEA - 2
D Evans TEN - 2
R Penny SEA - 2

D Adams GB - 36
S Diggs BUF - 32
T Hill KC - 29
M Thomas NO - 23
M Evans TB - 20
C Godwin TB - 20
D Metcalf SEA - 20
J Brown BUF - 18
E Sanders NO - 17
T Lockett SEA - 16
C Beasley BUF - 15
A Brown TB - 15
G Davis BUF - 14
D Johnson PIT - 14
A Brown TEN - 13
M Brown BAL - 13
A Lazard GB - 13
J Smith-Schuster PIT - 13
C Claypool PIT - 12
S Watkins KC - 12
M Hardman KC - 11
M Valdes-Scantling GB - 11
R Woods LAR - 11
C Davis TEN - 10
I McKenzie BUF - 10
A Robinson CHI - 10
T Hilton IND - 8
C Kupp LAR - 8
J Landry CLE - 8
T McLaurin WAS - 8
D Robinson KC - 8
R Higgins CLE - 6
D Moore SEA - 6
J Reynolds LAR - 6
W Snead BAL - 6
M Callaway NO - 5
S Miller TB - 5
Z Pascal IND - 5
M Pittman IND - 5
J Washington PIT - 5
D Mooney CHI - 4
C Sims WAS - 4
T Smith NO - 4
E St. Brown GB - 4
M Boykin BAL - 3
D Bryant BAL - 3
R Foster WAS - 2
V Jefferson LAR - 2
A Miller CHI - 2
S Sims WAS - 2
F Swain SEA - 2

T Kelce KC - 34
M Andrews BAL - 19
R Tonyan GB - 19
J Cook NO - 15
R Gronkowski TB - 14
D Knox BUF - 12
E Ebron PIT - 10
C Brate TB - 7
A Hooper CLE - 7
J Smith TEN - 7
L Thomas WAS - 7
T Higbee LAR - 6
J Graham CHI - 5
J Hollister SEA - 5
T Burton IND - 4
W Dissly SEA - 4
G Everett LAR - 4
A Firkser TEN - 4
M Alie-Cox IND - 3
J Doyle IND - 3
C Kmet CHI - 3
M Lewis GB - 3
A Trautman NO - 3
V McDonald PIT - 2
D Njoku CLE - 2
J Sternberger GB - 2

T Bass BUF - 14
W Lutz NO - 11
H Butker KC - 10
R Succop TB - 10
M Crosby GB - 9
J Tucker BAL - 8
C Boswell PIT - 6
J Myers SEA - 6
R Blankenship IND - 5
S Sloman TEN - 5
M Gay LAR - 4
D Hopkins WAS - 4
C Parkey CLE - 4
C Santos CHI - 4

Bills BUF - 11
Saints NO - 11
Buccaneers TB - 10
Chiefs KC - 9
Packers GB - 8
Ravens BAL - 8
Steelers PIT - 7
Seahawks SEA - 6
Rams LAR - 5
Football Team WAS - 4
Browns CLE - 4
Bears CHI - 3
Colts IND - 3
Titans TEN - 3

[QuikSand]

Please login

if you're a subscriber... have at it

[albionmoonlight]

Not a subscriber, but some quick Saints thoughts for those of you who are:

As you are looking for roster filler, avoid Trequan Smith. He's injured, and he's never really meshed into the offense even when healthy.

Marquez Callaway was really coming on when he got injured. More importantly, Brees seems to trust him (something about the number 12 I guess). Word is he is healthy, and I could see him putting up better numbers than people expect.

Finally, rookie TE Adam Troutman has been coming on lately. And the Saints normal number 2 TE (Josh Hill) has been limited in practice with a hand injury. Trautman is probably worth a flyer at $3

[albionmoonlight]

dola:

And avoid Latavius Murray at $13. His usage is way too boom or bust for that price point, IMO.

[QuikSand]

my entry: KC/SEA, cross fingers Kelce is absent, sprinkle in just enough elsewhere to stay alive

[Maple Leafs]

The extra playoff teams (and two fewer byes) makes this a little easier this year.

[Maple Leafs]

Everyone make week two?

[QuikSand]

alive but pointless

[Maple Leafs]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

alive but pointless

Aren't we all.

[Maple Leafs]

This year's contest has been posted. My first thought is that the reduction in bye teams should make it easier (and maybe less fun).

[QuikSand]

Please login - Footballguys

[QuikSand]

This is a survivor-style contest. After the first weekend, we cut half the entries. After the second weekend, half the remaining entries. After the third weekend, half again. Scores reset each round. The Winner will be determined by points scored in the Super Bowl.

this is an improvement... last year it was a huge variable since the cutdowns were fixed numbers... being top-4000 turned out to be academic in round one last year since there were only something like 5,000 entries IIRC.

if the two bye teams make the Super Bowl, surely someone will have eked their way there with a thin week one lineup... but that seems like a tough play to make

i'm going to go with a chalk/weird combo in hopes of a super stacked SB team if it hits, and a credible week one lineup

thoughts right now:
Packers/Bills
Bucs/Bills
Titans/????? play but with Henry out and Foreman in (based on some re-injury or something)

[QuikSand]

As always, I am too focused on escaping the first couple rounds, and not enough on winning the final round:

QB - Tom Brady - TB - $39
QB - Matthew Stafford - LAR - $27
QB - Ryan Tannehill - TEN - $21
RB - Derrick Henry - TEN - $21
RB - Sony Michel - LAR - $11
RB - Tony Pollard - DAL - $9
WR - Mike Evans - TB - $25
WR - Van Jefferson - LAR - $12
WR - Julio Jones - TEN - $8
TE - Anthony Firkser - TEN - $4
PK - Harrison Butker - KC - $13
PK - Tyler Bass - BUF - $9
PK - Randy Bullock - TEN - $8
TD - Dallas Cowboys - DAL - $11
TD - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - TB - $10
TD - Tennessee Titans - TEN - $8
TD - Buffalo Bills - BUF - $7
TD - Los Angeles Rams - LAR - $6

I think I need to drop my Cowboys and load up on bums from the TEN/TB tilt at the end, for this lineup to have any shot. Need to own those afterthought receivers and a TB back to be in it. Hell, I now see that I don't even have AJ Brown, this is toast. First stab fodder, that's all.

[QuikSand]

okay, more viable, basically TEN/TB with a full fade on Uncle Lenny:

Your team has been successfully entered.

QB - Tom Brady - TB - $39
QB - Ryan Tannehill - TEN - $21
RB - Derrick Henry - TEN - $21
RB - Tony Pollard - DAL - $9
RB - Ronald Jones - TB - $4
RB - KeShawn Vaughn - TB - $4
WR - Mike Evans - TB - $25
WR - A.J. Brown - TEN - $20
WR - Odell Beckham - LAR - $12
WR - Van Jefferson - LAR - $12
WR - Julio Jones - TEN - $8
TE - Anthony Firkser - TEN - $4
PK - Ryan Succop - TB - $12
PK - Tyler Bass - BUF - $9
PK - Randy Bullock - TEN - $8
TD - Dallas Cowboys - DAL - $11
TD - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - TB - $10
TD - Tennessee Titans - TEN - $8
TD - Buffalo Bills - BUF - $7
TD - Los Angeles Rams - LAR - $6

Total value: 250

[albionmoonlight]

Did everyone make it through week one?

[QuikSand]

TOTAL 99.25
CUTOFF 147.55

Nope. Needed to toss in another team, at least, presumably from the AFC. Will still watch with interest at what the eventual winner looks like, especially if the eventual SB is any fairly chalky mix of the 1/2 seeds. It was really hard to afford "everyone in the Superbowl" with those expensive teams. But hard to see how you win the final week without having close to that many players, where they finally all count.

[Maple Leafs]

So after all these years, FBG changed the format this season.

The new format is basically:
You will select six players for each round of the playoffs, a total of 24 players. No positional requirements or salary caps. Take any players you want. Each player's fantasy points are doubled in the Divisional round, tripled in the Championship round, and quintupled (i.e. multiplied by five) in the Super Bowl. The winner is the contestant who accrues the most total points across all four rounds of the playoffs.

Subscribers can find it here.

Anyone giving it a shot?

[QuikSand]

I think Underdog Fantasy sorta poached their original concept. And tbh, if I'm going to put a ton of time into something like this, I want to earn something serious.

So I may play the FBG thing, but they have relegated themselves to a bottom tier offering imo.

I am playing the Underdog thing, though, in part fueled by years of this thread spurring my interest.

[Maple Leafs]

Not familiar with it. Got a link?

[QuikSand]

apologies, i missed the useful window

Underdog Fantasy: Daily and Season-Long Fantasy Contests

They are trying to rival DraftKings and FanDuel, their main lane seems to be "best ball leagues" where you draft an extended fantasy lineup, make no moves all year, and check in later to see who won.

[QuikSand]

My FBG entry, fwiw:

In the Wildcard round, you have:
Devin Singletary - RB - BUF
Justin Herbert - QB - LAC
Austin Ekeler - RB - LAC
Keenan Allen - WR - LAC
Tom Brady - QB - TB
Chris Godwin - WR - TB
In the Divisional round (points multiplied by 2), you have:
Joe Burrow - QB - CIN
Ja'Marr Chase - WR - CIN
Tee Higgins - WR - CIN
Jalen Hurts - QB - PHI
A.J. Brown - WR - PHI
Elijah Mitchell - RB - SF
In the Championship round (points multiplied by 3), you have:
Josh Allen - QB - BUF
Stefon Diggs - WR - BUF
Isiah Pacheco - RB - KC
JuJu Smith-Schuster - WR - KC
Brock Purdy - QB - SF
San Francisco 49ers - TD - SF
In the Super Bowl (points multiplied by 5), you have:
Patrick Mahomes - QB - KC
Jerick McKinnon - RB - KC
Travis Kelce - TE - KC
Christian McCaffrey - RB - SF
Brandon Aiyuk - WR - SF
George Kittle - TE - SF

[QuikSand]

Looks like they have a for-money contest going starting with the divisional games... had it in two tiers, entry fees of $35 (sold out) and $200 (wayyy far away from filling up). If they hold to their guaranteed payouts in the $200 pool, this could be a massive overlay. I don't love the structure, but... I'm always looking out for clear +EV opportunities so, passing this on.

https://myffpc.com/PlayoffChallengeDivisionalRound.aspx

[QuikSand]

For reference, with 3 hours to go until the entry deadline, they have 146 of 1,500 entries submitted for the $200 contest.

They are claiming to pay out "$100,000 Grand Prize and $260,000 in total guaranteed prizes paying down to 150th place."

If this thing only gets, say, 750 entries... they will be giving back 260K in prizes on only 150K in entry fees. +EV ratio of over 1.7 for the median entry. By their system, just tossing in a chalky entry might be pretty substantially +EV... just load up on two SB teams' stars (like QB Mahomes and RB McCaffrey, whatever) and make sensible picks elsewhere, based on your Division winner predictions.

[QuikSand]

Contemplating:

QB Allen
RB McCaffrey
RB Barkley
WR AJ Brown
WR Lamb
TE Kelce
FLEX Etienne
FLEX J Chase

...super chalky, and likely to be duplicated, sure... but in the "way undersubscribed" situation, this seems like it might have a pretty solid shot of making the top 150 entries out of only 400 or 600 or whatever.

[QuikSand]

...which is to say, if you approach this like a standard GPP, you need to create separation from the field by using some unorthodox plays, since the payouts are stacked toward the top unreasonably densely. It's a lower play to just shoot for "pretty good" or "in the money."

BUT... if they end up actually paying out 150 out of 750 entries, then all those $300 and $500 wins suddenly become worth pursuing more directly, IMO. Maybe you toss in one wonky play, but not four or them.

[QuikSand]

Looks like the $200 sold out now too, alas