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03-07-2008, 04:39 PM
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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2029 Late Free Agency
I get a trade offer for DR Arnold Ingram, and since I think he might be a short-timer, I am intrigued. But it’s only a 4th round pick and a stiff RB, which makes no sense at all. Pass. Well, I guess I’m glad I drafted at QB – there’s nobody very interesting in the after-draft free agent pool after all, so we aren’t going to have anyone ride in to the rescue for our offense. There is one peculiar guy with a very high rating in short passing and a few support ratings, but no other passes rated above a near-void – that would be interesting, but not worth tossing aside my two young guys, I don’t think. So, we will head in likely using 3rd year man Jose Swartz as our starter, and with rookie Timothy Murphy as (hopefully) the guy who is growing into the job. We’ll see. I do have that one last contract slot to fill – so we put out a three year offer to DE Ernest Mills, a pass-rushing specialist who spent a little time with us a few seasons ago. If we end up losing DE Ingram, he’s a guy who could see real playing time for us at DE, despite having basically zero run-stopping skills. I release WR Clyde Craig to get down to 53 players for camp – he’s a return man only, and we have a few options there now, and he was going to get cut after this year anyhow. NO alarm bells going off there. |
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03-07-2008, 04:40 PM
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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2029 Training Camp
Tampa Bay Player Report (TB 2029c - TB 2029d)
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03-07-2008, 04:40 PM
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#53 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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2029 Camp Observations
Not a lot of booming going on – our first-round reach at QB gave us a mighty +1, suggesting that he is not much more than a stopgap for us there. His future rating might get to 60, I guess, but I doubt that will make him the staff-selected starter over Swartz, so his potential for growth might be limited – no playing time, no mentor. Overall, I’m not sure we got a single long-term prospect in this draft. TE Crockett didn’t even jump… I guess my scout was right after all. Ugh. A random (?) bust for K Kyle Stone gives us a little heartburn. Under these rules, I have no option but to play him this year, and likely replace him next – that sucks. He looks awful now. We are offered a 2nd round pick for LB Ellis Gerald, but I’ll pass – I plan to start him at SLB this season, but longer term I think he will be very solid in the WLB role. This could be the first “fall apart” season we have had thus far. The signs are all there, I fear. |
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03-07-2008, 04:40 PM
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#54 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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2029 season
Benchmarks: Roster Rating – 94 (t2nd) Cohesion – 71-89-91-73 My predictions: QB Jose Swartz, running our “control passing” offense, posts 20 TD and 20 Int Our offense drops from the elite, and becomes pretty average On defense, again no major sack threats, but the DBs still play well We end up 8-8, and miss the postseason Season narrative: Well, after an opening day shutout win, we follow up with three losses to slide to 1-3 on the year – about the sort of shakiness I had feared. Jose Swartz has been shaky at QB and is now hurt, so Tito Daylo is taking over for his chance. We peel of three wins to reach 4-4 at the halfway point. We are rushing for under 4 yards a try, and passing for only 6.5 – those are not winning numbers. Our defense is playing pretty well, but we are not controlling games like we would prefer to. We win three more close games, and suddenly are at 7-4 on the year. I don’t think we are really that good, but Swartz has his ratio all the way up to 15/4 on the season, which is getting much more like what we want from a controlled passing style. Three more wins, and we are at 10-4 on the year, winners of nine straight games. We still trail 11-3 Atlanta for the division, but we are in a spot for a playoff berth after all. Swartz has been human lately, but he still has a 92 passer rating on the year. RB Edward Swift has over 1,000 yards, though he’s still under 4 yards a carry on the year. We win one more, and close with Atlanta at home – winner gets a by week, loser takes a wild card. We get the 24-17 win, and manage somehow to reclaim this season from the 1-4 start and finish as the hottest team in football with 11 straight wins. Wow. Code:
So, the control passing attack once again proves it’s a solid way to rack up wins, if not stats. Swartz was good enough to run the show, and we put enough around him that we came together for an alarmingly good season after all. Bryant Czyz is probably fuming at his laughably weak stat line for this season, but we basically circled the wagons and focused on team this year – sorry, pal. The defense pulled together and put up some nice numbers – two guys with double digit sacks, that breaks our trend. LB Daniels was very effective coming from the blitzbacker slot all season, and LB Ellis Gerald had a fine year from the strong side as well. |
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03-07-2008, 04:41 PM
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#55 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Postseason Narrative
Not as much detail this year as last… Wild Card Round: Minnesota (10-6) at Tampa Bay (12-4) Ouch, thought we had the bye week wrapped up, instead we have to win here and then hit the road even if we win. Ouch – that’s a big drop from #2 to #3. In a total shootout, QB Jose Swartz drives us 82 yards for a tying TD with under two minutes left, but we leave enough time on the clock to let them score, and they take the 38-31 win. CB Chuck Kemnitzer had two picks, taking one 59 yards for a score, and helped keep us in it, but we made too many mistakes and gave it up at the end. |
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03-07-2008, 04:41 PM
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#56 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Season Coda
As I work through looking for a late-season renegotiation, I have a distinct feeling that this team is about to come apart. I have four high quality defensive players out of contract after this year – DE Ingram, DE Bolsins, LB Daniels, and CB Kemnitzer. Extending any of them will cost a fortune, but I don’t see that we have much choice, really. I decide it’s CB Kemnitzer that I really need to keep, and lock him up for three extra years at $14m per – but we are going to be scrambling to keep together some semblance of a pass rush for next season, I fear. In the season awards, our center Phil Brennan gets a first team mention, as does LB Dixon Daniels. Not quite sure what our salary pressures are going to be like for next year, but I think this is going to be our first season (ahead) where we really struggle just to field a full roster. We have quite a lot of guys who are either on expiring contracts or ones that demand a void move right away. I think the numbers game is finally going to catch up to us. |
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03-07-2008, 04:51 PM
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#57 |
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General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: New Mexico
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QS, if you get a chance, could you update the house rules in the first post? Although I'm actually not sure that you haven't already.
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03-07-2008, 10:37 PM
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#58 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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The updated “Highlander Rules”
In any given season: -there can be only one free agent signed to a one-year contract -there can be only one free agent signed to a two-year contract -there can be only one free agent signed to a three-year contract -there can be only one free agent signed to a four-year contract -there can be only one free agent signed to a five-year contract -there can be only one free agent signed to a six-year contract -there can be only one free agent signed to a seven-year contract -there can be only one offer made to any target free agent player -there can be only one free agent from the above signed during the late FA period -there can be only one restricted free agent signed without counting above -there can be only one renegotiation during FA stage 1 -there can be only one renegotiation toward the end of the season -there can be only one trade, either within the current draft or AI-initiated |
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03-07-2008, 11:01 PM
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#59 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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2030 Initial Offseason
Okay, we start off with a check of the retirement list: T Irving Canney, a fairly young starter for us, left last season with repetitive concussion syndrome, and he has left the game. Tough loss. On top of that, we will have to release a few players whose contracts basically explode this season. TE Mitch Farias and CB Jessie Blythe, your service has been appreciated. S Roy Fritz, we will sit down and see if we can work out an extension, but the $24 million salary cap number just doesn’t work for us this year. We’ll talk with you later. So, I do my quick roster math once again – I think it’s dicier than ever this season: 36 players signed 1 franchise tag 1 restricted free agents 7 open free agent signings 7 draft picks -- 52 players So, we ought to be okay after all. If we can manage to extend with S Fritz rather than cut him, we could come in right at 53 players. We ought to be okay. |
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03-07-2008, 11:02 PM
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#60 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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2030 Free Agency
Once we clear out the three exploding salaries, we will have around $65m of the $220m cap to work with. Here’s the list of our own free agents: Code:
So, my thinking is basically this: -We will need to tag one of the DEs, likely Ingram, and see if a long term deal is even thinkable. -We should try to sign one of the defenders, probably DE Bolsins, as a free agent, maybe with some exploding later seasons. -I want to try to get new deals with WRs Dickens and Lindsey, but getting them both re-signed might be a stretch. -I don’t see how we can do anything but re-up with Jose Swartz using our RFA slot. I don’t have any faith in Timothy Murphy, and candidly none of the other RFAs are guys we really want to re-sign anyhow. We tag DE Ingram, wince as we see his $18m deal, and move ahead. A new deal with S Roy Fritz is out of the question, so we will be going with the patiently waiting young Rusty Woodson as our starter. At the other safety slot, I decide to lock down a real star player in Ben Terry with our renegotiation, and we pony up $24m for him to stay for six years – he will slot in at $11m per year for some time. So, DE Bolsins wants about $11 million a year. That’s not totally absurd, and I would really like to keep him around. LB Daniels is also thinking the same neighborhood, and I don’t see that happening – instead, I see us sliding LB Ellis Gerald back over to play at the weak side, and we’ll patch over the SLB slot with whomever fits best. I try to patch together an offer for LB Daniels, and I find that he won’t even listen to our offer, since he is so upset about being tagged last year – so that’s a lost cause, it seems. I can’t find a better fit at LB than Kelly Chancey, and he is looking for a long term deal, so this isn’t that tortured to make it into six years. if he can stay healthy, he will land a lot of work for us in the middle. I got to worn on a deal to DE Bolsins, and I think 4 years is the sweet spot where I can get three affordables and then one reneg or release option. It takes $20 million up front, but we get it done and on the table to him. I have my one and five year slots to fill. We don’t really have anyone on the team to play LT this year, so that’s probably our top priority, assuming these offers made so far connect. We also could use a veteran who would take over our group affinity leadership and repair the mess we have as that has changed hands. I decide to go with a one year deal to LG Walt Holt, who we will move to LT presumably, and expect to hold down the first for one year. Finally, we work out some cheap terms with versatile LB Hardy Augustine, who can play inside or out, probably as our #5 or #6 on and off. Reneg – SS Ben Terry – 6yrs, $66m, $24m bonus RFA – QB Jose Swartz, 3yr, $12m 1YR – G Walt Holt, $8.0m 2YR - 3YR – WR Kendrick Lindsay, $6.6m 4YR – DE Brett Bolsins, $81m ($20m bonus, essentially 3y, $35m) 5YR – LB Hardy Augustine, $52m ($2m bonus, essentially 3y, $8m) 6YR – LB Kelly Chancey, $80m ($12m bonus, essentially 5y, $36m) 7YR – WR Warren Dickens, essentially 3y, $11m Well, DE Bo Bolsins signs – but with Philadelphia, and not us. So, that frees up the 4yr contract slot, and shorts us one impact player I had been counting on. So, I decide to pursue Terrance Harden instead – he’s an 8th year DE with a 90 rating in pass rush technique and precious little else to bring to the table. But he takes a 4yr contract with the first three years at $3m each. I have no idea how much time he will get, but we are going to have a roster hole there anyway, he seems as good a patch as I can locate here. G Walt Holt holds out a long time, but in week 10,m he finally turns down a multi-year offer and takes my bonus-heavy one year deal. |
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03-07-2008, 11:02 PM
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#61 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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2030 Draft
With this year’s fill-in LT signed for just one year, that’s an obvious place to look for a top draft pick. I am also unhappy at TE after last year’s rookie disappointed us, and I think we need to add at least one safety in this draft or with the after-draft pick. We also need a punter, and our current kicker is a total disgrace. Plenty of slots that could be filled. We are at pick 29, so we will most take what’s left, and hope to see a solid tackle fall to us. Regrettably, the top guy I was hoping to see slip landed right at pick #28, and we just missed. I don’t like any OT for this pick, so I’m looking elsewhere immediately. I decide to pull the level in my one trade for this year, and I deal down into round two, and pick up Detroit’s third round pick. I think an extra body will actually help us a good deal here. I am not surprised when the next 2nd round pick comes up, most of my “top guys” are still there, so I don’t feel we lost a lot with the trade-down. Wish I’d have grabbed an extra 6th or 7th rounder, though, in the swap. I have three NTs on the team now, but all three have expiring contracts, so DT Alonzo Fernyhough isn’t a silly pick, even though I think he projects solely as an inside run-stopper. Code:
For our two year deal, I ink RB Trent Sullivan – a utility RB with great return skills. Hopefully just as a backup plan, but I like his mix of skills however we might use him. That gets us to training camp – I’m hopeful that we will avoid last year’s big whiff, and come away with a few future starters here. I’m looking at rounds 3-4-5 and thinking I got some good targets there. |
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03-07-2008, 11:02 PM
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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2030 Training Camp
Tampa Bay Player Report (TB 2030c - TB 2030d)
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03-07-2008, 11:02 PM
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#63 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Well, here’s the highlight reel from training camp:
Code:
Great gains from our top rookie DT, our fullback target, and from “the other tackle” we drafted. And our starting QB gave us a seeming random boom – that’s very nice too. A big drop from WR Jeff Deberry is something I really should have seen coming, but basically didn’t. Anyhow – we did re-sign Kendrick Lindsay, and I guess he probably slips into the starting role there for us now. Also, a major drop from our top rookie LT Horton – I’m not shocked, but a little disappointed there. I really don’t know what to do at that position now – is the +4 from T Hover good enough for us to “clear the way” for him and get better players off the roster so the staff will get Hover in to start? I don’t know, really – maybe we’ll deal with that next season. I forgot to move LB Ellis Gerald to the weak side before camp, but it’s a seamless move for him. I expect him to step right into the shoes of the departed Daniels and deliver solid, if not all-star, pass rush numbers for us right away. We do some more shifting a bit among the LBs, moving veteran free agent signee Hardy Augustine into the mix at SLB, and we are ready for the season. |
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03-09-2008, 05:00 AM
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#64 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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2029 season
Benchmarks: Roster Rating – 80 (3rd) Cohesion – 80-98-87-87 My predictions: QB Jose Swartz, running our “control passing” offense, posts 24 TD and 16 Int Defense drops its overall pressure, but DE Ingram has career year with 14 sacks S Rusty Woodson emerges as a very solid starter at FS, with a strong season We are again a playoff factor, go 10-6 and get a wild card Season narrative: Wow, we get a decent opening day win 17-14, but we get butchered at… offensive tackle. LT Holt, my one-year stopgap, is out for ten weeks. And RT O’Neil is done for the season. Suddenly, we have real work to do there. I decide to move rookie Hover to play RT, where he will presumably have to start for most of the year. I will let Bo Horton start at LT, until Hunter Gordon gets healthy in four weeks, then I’ll let the staff make the call there. Ouch. We lose our next game at Baltimore, but the Ravens are a very serious team (100 roster rating), and by all accounts the line held up okay. We limp to a 2-3 start, but the teams who have beaten us are all pretty good – I’m not panicking quite yet, though I’m not happy. We beat Atlanta to pull even with them at 3-3 for the division lead. RB Edward Swift is really red hot, with 4.6 yards per carry and 44 catches (on 49 targets) for 257 yards. Two losses, and we limp to our midway point at only 3-5. I don’t have a lot of options – we are really suffering injuries this season, and I feel like our depth is being tested and found wanting. With C Brennan and RG Rodgers also out with injuries, the O-Line is basically a group of backups trying to hold down the fort. We limp along to 6-7 on the year, and are only a game back of Atlanta. We defend our home turf against them and pull even, but we have the head to head tiebreaker now. We follow up with a gutty 6-3 win at home over the Browns, and we have a shot to get this thing back on track, perhaps. However, in our last game, we slip up and lose at Carolina. That drops us to only 8-8 on the year, but Atlanta’s loss means it really doesn’t matter – we have the edge for the division crown, and get the #4 seed ahead of a far more deserving team from Washington who sits at 12-4 and has to come visit us in the opener. Code:
Well, Swartz is coming along fine – he certainly seems to be “good enough.” Next season, I think we can contemplate opening things back up and trying to get the ball downfield some more. Edwards Swift has become our all-around back, totally replacing Todd Reed (I thought the two would wind up splitting time more, but I turn the depth chart over to my staff here). Czyz is just a role player in this silly offense, and it’s criminal to be paying a guy so much money to do so little with the ball – this dink and dunk stuff drives me batty. The pass rush, with a major drop in talent, dropped off quite a lot, though we still rated as the top pass rushing unit overall. LB Gerald was fine, but DE Ingram just isn’t enough to do it alone, and the supporting cast was okay, but nothing special – 3rdd year man Marco Stone saw the most playing time, but posted only a 5.4 PR%. Nobody on the team posts even 10 PDs, and our PD% took a huge drop this year. I’m seeing cracks in the foundation – but we are still standing and still a better than average team, I think. |
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03-09-2008, 05:01 AM
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#65 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Postseason Narrative
We open at home, still in injury-driven disarray, but ready to face the Redskins. Wild Card Round: Washington (12-4) at Tampa Bay (8-8) We have a shot, home field will help, but we need the offense to click and keep the ball in our hands. We get the sort of game we want – we inch out to a 16-0 lead through three quarters. But the Skins come back with two 4Q touchdowns to get it close – then we put it away with a score of our own, followed by a clinching interception return by Ben Terry. Swartz is solid in the air on 25/36, and runs 11 times for 40 yards. Divisional Playoff: Tampa Bay (9-8) at Dallas (14-2) Well, we are ten point dogs here, and look totally outmanned. It turns out to be a very evenly matched game, though – we are back and forth with both teams moving the ball well through the air, but once again we give up back to back 4Q touchdowns, and this time that puts Dallas ahead by 9. We score with 1:40 left, but can’t get the onside kick, and the Cowboys put in an extra TD to salt it away, 35-26. I make a pass at extending the contract of DE Arnold Ingram, but it’s basically no use. He will walk after this year, unless we can finesse something in open free agency. Instead, we settle for a new deal with G Maurice Donhoff, whose ratings are slipping a bit, but who at least can manage to play the whole season for us. |
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03-10-2008, 09:43 AM
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#66 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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2031 Initial Offseason
No retirements, that’s a nice bit of news. We do have two exploding contracts, and expect to be forced to cut FB Kent Raven and DE Randal Franklin. Roster math again: 40 players signed, after those 2 cuts 1 franchise tag 1 RFA extension 7 free agent signings 7 draft picks -- 56 potential players We’re in better shape than usual here, and will have the liberty of throwing away a couple guys at the end of the line, or even making a trade-up in the draft if need be. Here is our slate of free agents: Code:
So, another twist – I basically don’t have any RFAs I really would like to keep. I don’t have the luxury of passing there, so we’ll re-up with LT Hunter Gordon, mostly due to all the tumult we had at the position there last year. And on top of that, we don’t have a perfect candidate for the franchise tag, either. DE Arnold Bryant is the guy, of course, but with a loyalty rating of only 4, there’s a very real fear that he would hold out and not even re-sign. But I look at the other options, and see nobody who makes much sense – so I tag Ingram, and hope for the best. That player “cushion” isn’t looking quite as great as I had thought – nor is our cap space, after eating $22.4m for Ingram. And his loyalty does bottom out at zero, which may be a bad sign. I decide that for our renegotiation, we will try to keep an anchor player aboard, and we re-sign CB Billy Shea for four more years. He, too, is a pricey proposition – he will cost us $19.5m per season through the deal (more this year with overlapping bonuses). |
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03-10-2008, 09:43 AM
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#67 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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2031 Free Agency
So, we are underway, a new contract to CB Shea, and an unhappy tagged DE. Let’s see where we go from here. We need to make a decision about long time starting center Phil Brennan – he’s been a solid run blocker for us, and would add cohesion, but he broke down for more than half of last season, and in his 9th year he’s past his peak. He is looking for $8m per season, and there are always solid centers available in free agency – I just don’t think he’s the best use of our money. Also, LT Walt Holt – our one-year solution last year, is open to a longer term deal at LT. He, too, missed most of last season with an injury, but he’s pretty cheap – and he’d solidify our OL leadership for a while, which has its advantages. I decide he makes sense, and would give us three usable LTs – so we put in a long term deal for him to keep him around a while. S Rusty Woodson wants a four year deal, and we want to lock him up (despite a disappointing debut as a starter last year) – and a $21m offer ought to do the trick. At DT, I think we need to make a change – another longtime starter for us, Alos Wilkerson, is only asking for $5m per year, but I think youngster Alonzo Fernyhough needs playing time, and will turn into a quality starter for us there. Need to get the most our of our younger guys, so we let Wilkerson move on. Is RB Todd Reed worth re-signing? Doubtful. He gave us a couple of good seasons, but he’s up into his 8th season, and he’s likely to take a hit in camp – he’s no better than a #2 for us now, and the arrow is turned the wrong way, I fear. With Swift and Sullivan in place this year we are okay, but next year they are both out of contract (Swift will get cut, Sullivan will be a RFA). So, RB is a position worth keeping in mind, at least. So, I decide to keep Ingram, but to hedge my bet a little by pursuing DT John Thorp. He’s a pass rusher who could move outside, and who listens to a decent 3yr offer with three tail-end years. TE Cornell Clayton is our major “serious” contract here – he’s a standout player, and our offer is pretty real, we only include one phony year allowing for a renegotiation at that point. He’s scouted at 72/72, and would become a serious target for us if we land him. S Nolan Pass is a routine veteran, good enough to play and even start, but affordable enough to keep on as a backup for a few years (and a good backstop in case our offer to Woodson fails). And my one year deal is an insurance policy at WR, signing 11th year man Bryan Talley, who could play for us at SE and has the right mix of skills for the more downfield-oriented offense I plan to install this season. Reneg – CB Billy Shea, 4yr $78m RFA – LT Hunter Gordon, 3yr $11.1m 1YR – WR Bryan Talley, $2.7m 2YR - 3YR – SS Nolan Pass, $6.9m 4YR – FS Rusty Woodson, $21m 5YR – TE Cornell Clayton, $43m (essentially 4y, $21m with option) 6YR – DT John Thorp, $106m (essentially 3y, $7.5m) 7YR – LT Walt Holt, $155m (essentially 4y, $20m) So, right out of the box, TE Cornell Clayton signs with the 49ers. That stinks. So, I knuckle under and put in an offer to our own DT Amos Wilkerson. I just don’t see another great option out there for us, and he would keep some continuity along the DL, even if I manually push him down to the backup slot at some point. So, we have 48 players signed as we head to the draft. Still some flexibility, but I think we have some fairly straightforward team needs. |
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03-10-2008, 09:49 AM
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#68 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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2031 Rookie Draft
Well, the draft seems very deep at WR, and at pick #21 we have a shot to get a long term asset there, so that’s certainly a possibility. I also would love to land an impact DE – have a guy in mind, but I reckon we’d likely have to trade up a bit to get him, as he’s #3 on the big board (at DT). We have options for right now, but there are a few holes on this roster that could use some attention. This draft does seem like it has about five or six superior combine types… if one of them slips at any position, we could make a move to go up and reach to land a major stud. The WR crop looks like it’s sliding hard, but then receivers got at picks 15, 18, 19, and 20 – and at 21 we are suddenly left pretty bare. However, I think I got my wish – the undersized DT my scout liked managed to slip this far, and I think he can become a solid addition in the LDE slot soon to be vacated by Arnold Ingram. I think we got our man here. Code:
So, I won’t detail the whole list – but overall I’m pretty positive about this group. I took TE Buffington in round two mostly because the guys I really wanted looked like they were going to last until later rounds – I had my eyes on WR Doyle, QB Sutton, and CB Andrews for a long time before pulling the trigger. RB Fisher is intriguing – he might be a blur. On to the late free agency… |
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03-10-2008, 09:49 AM
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#69 | |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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2031 Late Free Agency
In perhaps the least surprising announcement possible… Quote:
Yeah, yeah. I guess I knew this was coming, and I should have just cut him, and used the cap space to sign someone. Well, at least we have a promising youngster slotted at LDE who will bee taking the reins, we hope. But dammit, I can’t believe I painted us right into this obvious a corner. Ugh. He clearly won’t sign, this is a lost cause. $22m for nothing. So, we move on. In late free agency, I regret leaving my 2yr contract open and not my 1yr, as young CB Omar Carlisle looks like a really serious long term asset. He’s a 3rd year guy, so a 2yr deal will put him right up and into unrestricted free agency, but he looks like a serious addition – as in a potential starter. We offer him 2yrs, $4m and he takes it. Great add. At least a couple other teams made offers. (I hate watching this stuff closely in single player, it’s so annoying to see high quality players like that even getting cut, much less mostly ignored in the FA process – if this guy had been in late FA in a solid MP league, he would have gotten a 1yr $20m contract in a heartbeat) I cut a couple of last-year reserves, including CB Ernie Quill (who just never panned out to be the nickelback I had hoped for) to get down to 53 for camp, and we head in. I don’t know what to expect this year. Still stinging from my total mismanagement of the situation with DE Ingram, who has been released and now sits unpursued in the FA pool, presumably to accept a one year minsal offer from whatever team gets the chance to “load up” right after training camp. Ugh. |
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03-10-2008, 09:59 AM
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#70 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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2031 Training Camp
Tampa Bay Player Report (TB 2031c - TB 2031d)
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03-10-2008, 09:59 AM
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#71 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Here’s the highlight reel version:
Code:
Wow, another big jump from QB Swartz, he’s looking like the real thing now. Good thing, as my stab-in-the-draft QB flubbed, as I should have expected. LT Walt Holt looks like he’s in take-the-money-and-crumble mode. Big jump from DE Harmon cements my impression that he is, indeed, going to be the real thing – which takes some of the edge off the Ingram situation (he has signed super-cheap with the Raiders, lovely). CB Omar Carlisle is another major jumper, and that one feels wrong… I might need a rule against going in and poaching a player of that quality from the post-draft FA market. We’ll suffer through our shame, somehow. It also seems I whiffed again at TE, where this Buffington guy was indeed less than advertised. Maybe I will trust mt scout eventually here – that’s twice I have wasted early picks at a dumb position like this, flouting my scout’s advice and being wrong both times. At least Buffington has enough there to make him playable, unlike my last TE target who needed to creep a lot and did not. We will apparently need creeper LB Kris Devine, as our shaky starter at the SILB slot Donnie Hastings took a plunge in this camp. Good timing, I guess. Mixed bag, overall. |
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03-10-2008, 10:01 AM
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#72 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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2031 Season
Benchmarks: Roster Rating – 84 (3rd) Cohesion – 85-94-60-80 My predictions: QB Jose Swartz, opening up the offense a bit, throws for 4,000 yards and 30 TD, 18 Int Our pass rush falters, but remains above average, led by LB Gerald Our secondary gets better with CB Carlisle and S Rusty Woodson both adding value We go 10-6 and are back in as division champions Season narrative: Opening day is in Atlanta, and we whup them pretty good to set the tone. But after four games, we are in a three-way tie in the division with them and Carolina at 3-1, so this might not be that easy after all. Halfway through, we are 5-3, looking okay but not dominant. Swartz is hitting for a solid 7.8 yards per attempt, but we are running a lot to set up the downfield passing, and despite my OL woes, it seems to be working. LB Gerald has 11 sacks in 8 games and may be on his way to more than just being a team leader. Atlanta beats us at our place, earning the season split and a game advantage. The following week we beat Carolina to pull even with them at 6-4, but a game behind the Falcons. Another split, and we are 7-5, a game behind both division rivals, and in some trouble. We split another pair, but the loss to Carolina puts the division out of reach for us. We likely need to win the last two to get in as a wild card now. Instead, we split yet again, and finish at 9-7 – good enough to pick around #20 in the draft, but not good enough to make the playoffs. Fabulous. Code:
With WR Czyz on the sidelines for a lot of the year, we still managed a pretty solid offensive season. We dropped about 10% completions in order to gain about 1 full yard in yds/target. Don’t know if that means more wins, really. Kendrick Lindsay had a career year in the revamped offense, clearly. LB Gerald made the most out of the WLB slot, and posted big sack numbers. Sammy Woodson posted a very solid coverage season, with a team-high 16 PDs. our pass rush overall did slip, but remained upper tier at least. We have to be disappointed about missing the playoffs, but I think we will have some cap flexibility to try to prevent that from happening again. Our late-season renegotiation is with LB Ellis Gerald, who will no doubt be seeing some postseason honors for his excellent year. Indeed, LB Ellis Gerald is named not only first team LB, but Defensive Player of the Year. Our RG Bart Rodgers gets a first team mention as well, nice for him as an anchor-type player too. |
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03-11-2008, 09:46 AM
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#73 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Some observations…
I think I’m deep enough in with these rules to start having a fair “feel” for the game. Some thoughts on where this is relative to the FOF holy grail of the three areas I care about for a long term set of rules: Challenging – I want to be faced with difficulties in reaching success I’m disappointed here so far. I’m still able to draft far better than other teams, and have plenty of depth at most every position, and I’m keeping nearly all my star-caliber players. Maybe it’s getting lucky at QB that had helped, but I have to think that without Swartz developing like this, I’d just be playing some cheap free agent with similar results. Interesting – I want to feel like my time is well spent with the stuff I do in game Mixed results here. The slotting of FA contracts is a novel way to limit the number of things I can do in any year, but it does tend toward the silly when I am routinely making all manner of 6 and 7 year offers that are really nothing more than 3 year deals with absurd tail ends. Yes, that does require that I cut a fair number of players rather than hold on to everyone, but I pretty quickly have worked it out to only sign those deals with players whose departure will not really hurt us. So, there is a tedium factor at work there, though not huge. The theoretical “challenge” of crafting clever long term deals with my top players hasn’t really materialized – for guys I really really want to keep, I’m just extending them and never letting them see free agency at all. Rewarding – I want to feel like my decisions really cause the team’s success or lack thereof Pretty good results here – I do feel that if I were not doing this well in drafting that I’d have a pretty shaky team. And I do feel like my good decisions with gameplanning and so forth are indeed helping my team do well, overall. This is connected to “challenging” but different – the real worry here is that some rule sets restrain my decisions so much that I feel like it’s just the luck of the draw whether I get an opportunity to get a star QB, for example – here, I’m pretty wide open in drafting, and have a wide range of options in what to do each season, which is good for this element. Overall… I’m interested enough to keep playing, but I’m thinking about adding in a new rule or two to try to tighten things up and add to the difficulty level. I hate seeing my team with one of the top roster ratings every season, even if I do think it’s a function of me making generally wise choices. I **like** playing a team that has real deficiencies on its starting roster. I’m thinking about this new rule: -There can be only one renegotiation that varies from the requested amount and duration I think I’m getting away with a bit too much, and avoiding escalating contracts by working my renegotiations down to the inch – maybe requiring that one of my two annual renegs be on the player’s terms will add a little more hesitation to my thinking here. I think I have just talked myself into this rule Consider it done – it’s a new rule, effective in 2032. |
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03-11-2008, 10:06 AM
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#74 | |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: St. Paul, MN
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Quote:
This sounds like the crux of your problem. You're Bill Polian in a league of Mike Lynn's. Even if you continue to change rules regarding contract parameters, the dropoff of your roster isn't going to be too bad because you'll be able to find a lot of cheap depth because of your superior drafting. As I see it, that's the problem to address. I don't have the solution unfortunately. |
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03-11-2008, 06:45 PM
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#75 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Well, that's the reason it's a bit of a holy grail. A lot of us have been searching for a long time for ways to make the game challenging long term without emasculating too much of what we like about the game. This is just one more attempt to try to find that perfect sweet spot in that regard.
I'm having more success than many of my previous attempts, but you're right -- as long as I am able to do every thing in the game basically better than the opposition AI can, it's a tough charge to keep things even. Limiting the breadth of things that I can do is basically my approach here -- and it's admittedly imperfect. The perfect result would be, for me, a set of rules where I could really and truly play "all out" within those rules, and have fun long term. |
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03-11-2008, 06:45 PM
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#76 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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2032 Initial Offseason
First check is the retirement list, where we have lost RT Pat O’Neill – a guy who was going to get cut anyhow, so no harm done there. I have young Riddick Hover slotted there, and barring a big move he will be our starter at RT for a while. We have a few exploded contracts requiring releases – LB Jesse Dirnbauer, RB Edward Swift, and G Heath Jarvis are all goners. QB Tito Daylo is sitting on $21m this year – we’ll see if he might conceivably reneg that away, but the likeliest scenario with him is that he too gets cut. Assuming so, here is our roster math for this year: 38 players signed 1 franchise tag 1 restricted FA signee 7 free agent signees 7 draft picks -- 54 potential players Again, this is getting pretty routine. I’m not certain that having this calculation come to only ~50 players in some years would be good for the challenge aspect of things – maybe it would just be tedious to feel like I need to do some silly trade-down to pick up extra 6th or 7th round picks just to have enough bodies on the team. I’m not sure. Anyway – no crisis with the body count here. Here is our list of walk-year guys and free agents: Code:
So, I’m thinking that we have a plan at CB. This is the last year that Kemnitzer will be signed to his fat deal, and I think we re-up with Omar Carlisle instead of him for next season, and plan to slot Carlisle as the starter opposite Billy Shea. Even if Carlisle wants something like 6-8m per year, it will be a huge savings compared to the $14m we are paying Kemnitzer now for solid, but not exceptional, numbers (career PD% of 77.4). Indeed, extending Carlisle now, while he’s coming off a year as our 3rd option, maybe even be the smart play. The other possible target for an extension would be QB Jose Swartz, currently playing for $4m a year, but who has had two straight camp booms to become a decent upper-tier starter. He will probably want something like $10-13m a year in open free agency – he might be a guy for us to give in to at the end of the season. My guess is we will go after both him and Carlisle, in some order, with new contracts to keep them from hitting the market. Among the restricted free agents, we want to re-sign RB Trent Sullivan, as I like having a super-versatile guys in the backfield like him. Plus, we are super-thin at RB right now, with last year’s 7th rounder Rondell Fisher our only RB under contract. We have to sign someone, and I hope that Sullivan is cheap enough to sign as a #2, and then we can go out and ink a deal with one of the usual decent-enough-to-start veteran RBs who wander about aimlessly in FOF free agency. I don’t have anyone on this list of unrestricted free agents who is a top priority to re-sign. If WR Deberry is cheap, we will consider him for continuity, but he’s past his best days. LB Abercrombie maybe just because we are super-thin at LB, but he is not anything special. DEs Stone and Mills are pass-rush only guys, and neither is really anything that exciting either – if they are cheap, we’ll look, but I won’t overpay for either guy. The defensive front likely gets a heavy focus this offseason, whether old or young, we need capable bodies. That means, basically, that we have nobody who is truly worthy of the franchise tag. I could pay a guy like DE Marco Stone a full $16m to play with us for another year, but I don’t see much point in that. So – there goes our extra body for this year, we will forego the tag and drop our projected final roster to 53 players. |
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03-11-2008, 06:46 PM
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#77 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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2032 Free Agency
Good news up front, RB Sullivan is playing ball and accepts my modest three year RFA deal. That gives me a lot more comfort at the RB position – if we sign a veteran or draft a rookie we will be three-deep, but at worst we have one versatile guy who can tote the rock for us this season in Sullivan. Nice. CB Omar Carlisle indeed accepts a three-year cheap extension. My suspicion is that he will be an effective starter for us, and will be a pricey guy after that three years is done – but there was no way to get him to go longer than three, so we take it cheap and will deal with it when it comes due again. He’s really the first late-FA signee that felt like a heist, and then he boomed in camp the next year, even. Whoa. QB Tito Daylo is not talking sense with a renegotiation, incidentally, so any thougths about keeping him quickly evaporated. It looks like QB Swartz is thinking about something like $12m a year after this year – so we will assess that at year’s end, and if he comes off a big and healthy season for us, we probably do it. Our backup plan is to extend WR Bryant Czyz, but my guess is he will be cheaper in the open market as he is getting up in years. C Pat Brierton fills a serious roster need for us, is an affinity with our OL leader, and is looking for a pretty affordable contract. I like having a run-blocker up the gut, and he looks like he ought to be fine for us – a three year deal leaves us the opportunity to make this a long term deal with this 5th year guy. LB Darnell Abercrombie is nothing that special, but we make him an offer of 7 years, basically a three year deal. He’s a cheap affinity guy who can start for us at a thin position – money well spent, I think. WR Orlando Seebaldt is a decent-enough guy to help fill in yet another thing position, and has some kick return skills. He’d be fine if we had to use him as a #4 receiver, though he might have some butterfinger issues. He can return kicks also. Affordable three year deal with tail end – he’s younger, cheaper, and likely more useful than Jeff Deberry. I look around at RB – there is the usual assortment of decent backs out there, with many different mixes of skills. I’m thinking a short term deal, at least in practice, makes the most sense here – and I decide to use up some of our anticipated cap space, and work out a four year offer to 9th year RB Bennie Thornton, who has been alarmingly productive the last few seasons. He will make $22m in each of the first two seasons, but we can waffle next season if he takes a massive ratings hit or doesn’t earn the big bucks we have in mind. Last year Thornton posted 1,991 yards on 5.4 yards per carry for our division rival Carolina – so this guy has stats to back up the money he is seeking. TE Dustin Edwards is actually looking for a 5yr deal, and we give him a solid offer – he will make $5m a season for the first four years, and I expect him to make a pretty formidable combo along with young Travis Buffington. Should make TE a position of strength for us, which will be a real change. DE Lawrence Hanrahan is a short-term help at DE, where I’d expect him to start for this year. One year deal for $9 million, and we will contemplate a tag if he gives us a good year. Another slot in the starting roster where we really need one more guy. That will leave the 2yr deal as the one we hold open for after the draft. Reneg – CB Omar Carlisle, 3y $6m RFA – RB Trent Sullivan, 3y $5.7m 1YR – DE Lawrence Hanrahan, $9m 2YR - 3YR – C Par Brierton, $8.1m 4YR – RB Bennie Thornton, $148m (essentially 2y $48m) 5YR – TE Duston Edwards, $55m (essentially 4y $25m) 6YR – WR Orlando Seebaldt, $102m (essentially 3y $6.6m) 7YR – LB Darnell Abercrombie, $134m (essentially 3y $6.7m) I immediately lose out on WR Orlando Seebaldt, who takes a one year deal instead of our big backloaded one. So, we have a 6yr deal to hand out to someone – WR Jeff Deberry looks like a guy we could still use, and I have the luxury of waiting him out a bit, as nobody is offering his asking price. he eventually takes an offer for about $3m per season for three years, which will surely wipe out his remaining useful career. Fine by me. We are at 45 players signed now, with every position covered for having a legal roster. |
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03-11-2008, 06:46 PM
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#78 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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2032 Rookie Draft
We have no slots we need to fill to become legal for this year, but we have plenty of slots on this team where we need to add useful players for the next few years. WR is probably out top need, and I’m worried about OL, DL, and LB as well. With our top pick, there’s a super-bars left tackle who is way under-developed – he might turn out to be pretty solid, and we can afford to bring him along, I think. I have a few sleeper picks at WR and think that is the likely target for round two. Code:
Two receivers from my “sleeper” list land on our roster – so we might have made ground there. Barevics is the type of guy, though, who tends to die on the vine as I let my staff do the depth charting – we’ll see how that works out. S Lorenzo Thornton is a solid coverage guy, but at 230 lbs I’m thinking he might be an intriguing pick to move to play at the strong-side LB slot, where we could use a better starter. I haven’t been making many novelty draft picks in this career, but this counts as one, I suspect. His blue bars look great after the move, but I fear what we might see after training camp. Risky. Wow, I had been watching a QB for a long time, and finally decided to go after him in round six – only to see him grabbed in the pick right ahead of ours. So it goes, I guess. A draft chock full of low-development guys – not sure that’s the ideal strategy for this style of play, but we loved too many of these guys at the combine to pass them up for more developed players. We’ll see how that works. |
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03-11-2008, 07:47 PM
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#79 | |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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2032 Late Free Agency
I guess this wasn’t such a longshot to see coming: Quote:
It looks to me like we need to make our decision right now whether he is the guy for us for the near term, and I don’t see how we can really turn him down. I will likely extend him after training camp, after giving him one chance to come in voluntarily – but as it stands, we only have three QBs on the total roster, so denying him a reneg here would basically cut off our FA signing options too. We will work things out with Swartz, plain and simple. Anyway – we have a two year contract to offer, and I’m looking for a solid addition here. Our old WLB Dixon Daniels is out there, but we will go younger here – and select OT Leland Lester. He’s a 3rd year player rated 36/56 by my scout, who looks like a pretty balanced OL. Looks like he is really best suited to play RT, but that’s okay – we just drafted a guy we hope will be our LT of the future. Lester can fit in along with young Riddick Hover on the right side of our line for now – we’ll see if he’s a long term investment for us after his couple of seasons aboard. Of course, no other team sees any point in making any offers to a 36/56 young O-tackle. Of course not. Why would anyone want a guy like this? Much better – no joke here – to put in a 3 year, $12 million deal to a 6th year guy rated 40/40. I mean – what’s better, 36 or 40? I think we can all agree on that. Same with the other 6th year guy rated 39/39 who got a fatter deal than what I offered the younger guy with more potential. Fucking game… **shakes it off** |
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03-11-2008, 07:47 PM
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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2032 Training Camp
Tampa Bay Player Report (TB 2032c - TB 2032d)
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03-11-2008, 07:48 PM
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#81 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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And the highlight reel version:
Code:
So, young DE Harmon is just going to be a beast. G Takahashi gave us an unexpected jump, and my low-bars WR gave us one we did expect. NO shocks from the rookie class. RB Bennie Thornton, a 9th year RB, did not have a cataclysmic falloff like I had halfway feared – indeed he held ground at a solid 62/62 and will be easily the most talented and proven back we have ever featured with this team, so that ought to be interesting. Taking him away from division rival Carolina is a real plus too, I think. We did get clobbered at the strong-side linebacker slot, though. Ouch. Hardy Augustine is the most playable guy there, but that isn’t saying a lot. LB is a serious need, and we really should have gone after a veteran signee there, all things considered. Jose Swartz gets his requested $49m extension for four years, and that’s a no brainer. He will be an expensive player going forward, but we basically left ourselves no choice there. We get a 6th round pick offered up for FB Jeff Devine, and I take it – I like our rookie there, and Devine was leaving after this year anyhow. We’ll take the body, thanks. That gets us set up for the season ahead. I haven’t played this perfectly, I don’t think, but I suspect we will be a winning team again, and we haven’t suffered terribly for our moves. |
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03-11-2008, 07:48 PM
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#82 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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2033 Season
Benchmarks: Roster Rating – 100 (2nd best is 89) Cohesion – 85-76-64-88 My predictions: QB Jose Swartz, flush with cash and comfy, posts about 3,800 and 30/15 DE Ronald Harmon arrives at stardom with 50 tackles and 12 sacks CB Omar Carlisle steps into a starting job with a PR% over 80 We get a few breaks and put together an 11-win season to claim a bye week Season narrative: We beat Carolina in the opener 20-17, but no thanks to RB Bennie Thornton, who posts a measly 15 carries for 17 yards against his old team. Through the first half we play pretty well on defense, okay on offense, and manage to get out to a 6-2 record and the division lead. QB Timothy Murphy (forer first round pick) actually has played really well in relief for us, and will likely get another start or two while Swartz heals up from an ankle injury. We sit at 7-2 when we are struck with injuries at CB, including “severe anxiety” from Omar Carlisle – ugh. We also have lost DE Ronald Harmon to a massive knee injury that might be career-threatening. And We have lose our best inside LB Kelley Chancey for the year as well. Suddenly, we are in really deep trouble on defense. We get to 11-3, and have a game on the whole conference now. Our defense, in tatters, still is playing very well together. And Jose Swartz and company on offense have gotten their groove back, and are hitting on all cylinders of late. Bennie Thornton is not the 5+ ypc guy we thought we were getting, but we are running with the lead and getting it done okay. We finish with two wins, and secure the top seed and possibly a perch for a major playoff run. Code:
So, welcome to the upside-down world, where so many of our top defenders are gone completely with massive injuries, and we post probably our best-ever defensive season. Go figure. Maybe the transition at NT to Fernyhough made a difference there? I’m at a loss. Maybe just good luck. On offense, Swartz really had his best year, posting a really solid 9 yards per attempt, which means the offense was just really humming along. Despite the pretty shabby rushing average, we were effective moving the ball on the ground overall. That no doubt sets up the downfield passing game for Swartz. We’re in position to make a run – let’s see if this thing works. |
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03-11-2008, 07:48 PM
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#83 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Postseason Narrative
Divisional Playoff: New Orleans (11-6) at Tampa Bay (13-3) We look like the favorite, but I worry they will run on us more than I’d like. My fears are unfounded – we kept their running game in check pretty well, but their QB got us more than his fair share – 23 of 31 for 295 and 3 TDs. And eh set up the game-winning FG to steal this one from us, 24-21. So, we’re the #1 seed who goes one-and-out. We wrap the season with DE Harmon looking like he will miss next year (and maybe never make it back) and LB Chancey also a long term question mark. We have three first team honorees – G Bart Rodgers, LB Ellis Gerald, and CB Billy Shea. Disappointing postseason, and I have to be worried about the longer term if we really have lost one of our best emerging players. |
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03-12-2008, 03:41 PM
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#84 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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2033 Initial Offseason
Okay, coming off a surprisingly good regular season, then a disappointing postseason, and a very scary injury situation – this is starting to “feel” a little more engaging to me. Seriously, if we lose DE Harmon for good, that’s a massive setback – it’s rather hard to land a top-tier DE drafting at pick #20 or so every year (or #30 this year). So, we start off the new season, and the retirement list is the first check – we’re clear. In an annual tradition for this team under these rules, the “exploding contract” check is next – WR Warren Dickens, DE Terrance Harden, and LB Hardy Augustine are all released to get our cap into shape for this year. That gets us to this point with the roster math: 37 players signed 1 franchise tag 1 RFA re-signee 7 free agent signees 8 draft picks -- 54 potential players Pretty much the same as usual. Here’s our list of walk-year guys and free agents: Code:
So, among the walk-year guys we’d like to extend, I think the most pressing are RG Rodgers (who’s become a star caliber performer) and probably RT Leland Lester, who played well enough last year at RT to earn my confidence for the long haul. Among our free agents, we will make a serious effort to work out a deal with WR Bryant Czyz and keep him around, and the same goes for WR Kendrick Lindsay (though a bit less pressing there). LG Maurice Donhoff took a massive ratings hit last season and is now on my bubble, but he’s still okay and a long-time starter for cohesion purposes. NT Fernyhough started last year and put us into a bit of a jam – now NT Amos Wilkerson is demanding a trade due to playing time, so we have to get something worked out at that position. Re-signing Fernyhough makes the most sense, if he’s reasonable. We could end up with basically all our substantive contracts this year going to returning players. I don’t even mention Kemnitzer, because I have a long term plan there at CB (Carlisle, who hopefully is no longer suffering from anxiety attacks) and he will want a fortune. Given our dire DE situation, I am tempted to use the franchise tag on DE Hanrahan – he’s not all that special, but he’s a veteran guy who, barring a monstrous collapse in ratings (possible) should be a decent starter for another year. We have the cap space, and I decide it makes sense to lock up a body at DE. We are perilously thin there, and this ought to relieve the pressure to draft a DE in round one no matter what (even though I’d still prefer to do so). Anyway – I hire a new head coach to take the reins this year, a 57 year old guy with EX-VG-VG-VG-VG and hopefully he will help stave off injuries like we saw last season. We send LT Matthew Collier to Europe, hoping to see him develop into more of his fading-fast huge green bars. |
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03-12-2008, 03:41 PM
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#85 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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2033 Free Agency
Okay I use the tag on DE Hanrahan – it’s not the most inspiring use of $20 million in cap space, but he should be useful, and he gives us right now **three** signed defensive linemen total. We have work to do there, regardless. We extend G Rodgers on our terms, and will leave the “what he wants” reneg for the late-season slot. A more abbreviated roundup of the offseason moves, this time: Reneg – RG Bart Rodgers, 4y $56m RFA – NT Alonzo Fernyhough, 4yr $25m 1YR – DE Terrance Harden, $4m 2YR – 3YR – QB Timothy Murphy, $6.6m 4YR – WR Kendrick Lindsay, $48m ($12m bonus, flat salary) 5YR – WR Bryant Czyz, $105m ($40m bonus, flat salary) 6YR – LB Hunter Harlow, $106m (essentially 3y $9m) 7YR – LG Maurice Donhoff, $172m (essentially 4y $23m) Most of the deals here are easy to see coming. I do decide that I’m not going to get a better backup QB option than Murphy, who also is cheap and has team cohesion, so I re-up with him. Not the best long term use of a first round pick, but we’ll live with it from here, I guess. LB Hunter Harlow is a 7th year guy who looks like he can step right in to start for us at one of our ILB slots, or perhaps even at the strong-side. I’m thinking the better move will be to slide Krid Devine to the strong side, and play Harlow at the string inside slot where his run-stopping skills will be a better fit. We really need a guy at LB, and Harlow is as good ad fit as we’re likely to find. Three year deal with a tail end works for us fine. After all our offers but the 1 and 2 year slots get in, it turns out we are over the cap. I need to release DE Hanrahan after all, and that makes our DL position far worse. I end up re-signing DE Terrance Harden on a one year deal – he resumes his role as our D7 leader gaining multiple affinities, and he might be back into the starting lineup for us as basically a one-trick pony pass rusher. |
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03-12-2008, 03:41 PM
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#86 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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2033 Rookie Draft
We have to add at least one DL to get to a legal roster, and we’d be better off adding at least two, I’m sure. SLB is another target slot. Past that, we have some flexibility – but I will note my interest in several RBs I expect to last until round two at least. We have little choice with our top pick – there’s a good combine DE there, albeit one my scout thought was overrated, and I think we have to take him. Lock it up. Code:
Well, I decide to throw a lot of spaghetti against the DL wall, with hopes that some of it sticks there. Three later-round picks on guys who seemed to be worth it, and now we will have bodies along the DL if absolutely nothing else. I don’t often go for big-bars guys without the supporting combines, but DB Jarvis seems interesting – kick return skills, big coverage bars, maybe he will be okay as a #4 CB, a team need for the short term. |
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03-12-2008, 03:41 PM
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#87 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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2033 Late Free Agency
With my last FA contract, I again target a right tackle, 4th year Larry Stephens. We are going to suffer a thinning at OT after this season, and he’s a startable affinity guy for us, makes sense to have a usable player like that around, I think. Of course, we’re safe in offering yet another promising young player a pitiful 2yr deal, as no other team wants him at all. Dumb. We are filled up to 53 players, and are ready for the training camp, hoping to see good news and nobody falling way off a cliff. |
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03-12-2008, 03:42 PM
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#88 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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2033 Training Camp
Tampa Bay Player Report (TB 2033c - TB 2033d)
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03-12-2008, 03:42 PM
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#89 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Training Camp, the abbreviated version:
Code:
A bit disappointing to see several big ratings drops – worst is probably QB Murphy, but we did just re-up with G Maurice Donhoff, who is withering rapidly as well. RB Thornton dropped by 5, could have been worse. DE Dusty Douglas was a guy I thought would creep – alas, no dice there, a –5 in camp. DE Darren newman’s –3 camp is basically a break even – could have been plenty worse. LB Gabe Samuels, though – real deal. He will start right away at the strong side, and I love what I think we have in him. A +9 camp is huge. WR Montgomery will also play a key role as our #3 WR this year, slotted as the backup flanker behind big money man Czyz. Not much else to do here other than get rolling. I’ll hold off on the late-season renegotiation until season’s end, but we are ready to go. Hope we get enough out of the DL to keep us in the mix this year – at least I feel good about the LB corps this season. |
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03-12-2008, 03:42 PM
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#90 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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2033 Season
Benchmarks: Roster Rating – 96 (2nd) Cohesion – 91-81-70-100 My predictions: We are again solid passing downfield, I’ll guess 3,600 and 36/16 Maybe THIS is the big breakout year for CB Carlisle? We can actually have a LB lead the team in tackles – Chancey with about 85 We stay solid, but don’t get the bye week – 10-6 and a #3 seed Season narrative: An 0-2 start is jarring for a team that went 13-3 last year, but we need to shake it off and get back on track. 0-3 is even worse. 0-4 is a nightmare taking its shape right before us. It looks like Bryant Czyz is the only guy on the offense playing hard – I don’t know what to make of things here. We have registered 1 sack in 4 games, and QB Swartz is upside down in his ratio. We can’t run, we can’t stop the run, this is really bad suddenly. Okay – two wins and things are looking incrementally better. 2-4 ain’t great, but it beats 0-6. At 3-5 halfway through, we are basically out of the division race already, and our only postseason hope is to make a late run and maybe get to 9 or 10 wins to eke in as a wild card. Wow, didn’t see the bottom falling out this season. We get to week 13, our record is 5-6, and this is the “moment of truth” for DE Ronald Harmon, who has been upgraded to probable. he was rated 75/75 before the injury was fully revealed… and now he is… 44/44. A massive hit. He will still be a decent player, but not the defensive anchor we previously had. That really sucks. We scrape our way to 8-7 with one game left, and in-game it says we are ranked 2nd among the **five** 8-7 teams in a multi-way tie for the two wild cards. So, we have a shot – our playoffs basically start right here, at home, against 12-3 Carolina. We lose the game at home 24-21, and our season is over at an up-and-down 8-8. Tough. Code:
Really, all told, this wasn’t a terrible season by the numbers. About what I expected on offense, but I guess a late run made up for some early lapses. Thornton was solid enough in what will be his last year with us, though 13 fumbles does seem a bit excessive to me. Bryant Czyz remains the real deal, and even with all that cash weighing him down, he’s still getting it done for us. Good years from our top three wideouts, really. So, we do have a pretty good tackle total from a linebacker (Harlow with 91) but it’s still not enough to overtake the tackling machine that is S Ben Terry. The pass rush was adequate, but we were used to being well above average, and now are basically a median-level team. Same with secondary stats in coverage – basically average. For our talent level, we really should expect more than that. CB Shea might have had another all-pro year, and maybe Terry too, but overall I’d like to see this defense play like it’s good enough to win games for us. Not the case here. |
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03-12-2008, 03:42 PM
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#91 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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2033 Season Coda
Disappointing. Not sure if this, the occasional 8-8 season despite having a 2nd-best overall roster rating, is what I count as “challenge” but it’s one fashion of it. RT Leland Lester’s contract demands have gone up, but I meet them anyhow – I have no other real play here. He will make 6-8m per year for the next four seasons with us, under the new deal. We’re locked in, now. Carolina goes to the title game, but loses there to Jacksonville. RG Bart Rodgers – third straight first team season, awesome. WR Bryant Czyz is a second team all pro, only his second time getting honored. All those years dicking around with the “control” offense killed his HOF credentials. 900 yards a season ain’t getting it done, son. |
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03-14-2008, 04:38 PM
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#92 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Well... I'm halfway through the offseason to come, and I have to confess. I think I'm just out of interest in this. Yes, it's challenging enough, I suppose -- my team isn't a bye team every year. But it's just turning into a boring little "churn." I'm *always* able to find the players that I need to patch over - the AI teams simply don't make reasonable pursuits on quality complementary players. I'm coming into every season with 20-30% of my cap unused, and I'm really not even filling it up most years unless I put in a silly deal here or there. It's disappointing.
ANyway -- not certain that I'm setting this aside, but right now when I'm finding myself with an hour or two of fairly free time, I don't have any enthusiasm to fire this up. That's usually the prelude to the career just withering away and ending for me. I just like building more than maintaining, might just not be any way around that. |
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03-16-2008, 08:16 AM
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#93 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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2034 Initial Offseason
Okay, on to a new season. We will be without WR Jeff Deberry – veteran guy who had lost most of his attractiveness anyhow. Retires with 6,600 career receiving yards, and one thousand-yards season (with us). Solid player. After we purge our exploded contracts (RB Bennie Thornton, DT Amos Wilkerson, and DE John Thorp) we have 38 guys signed, and $45m (about 18%) to spend under the cap. That projects (assuming we avail ourselves of the 16 possible signees) to 54 players – once again, we are basically right on target there. I put in a new stadium plan (one of those things I keep forgetting in single player – like sending a guy to Europe) and keep our staff intact, including our head coach after an initial disappointing year. Here is our list of walkyear guys and free agents: Code:
For the franchise tag, I guess we’d want to hold onto an older player – but I just don’t see a good candidate here. CB Pujols? A nickelback? Doesn’t make much sense to me. I guess we just drop our target to 53 players and make do here. 2034 Free Agency As we sit in the first stage of free agency, we are short on our roster at QB, RB, TE, and DB. Practically speaking, we need to add at least one usable CB in this offseason just to play as our #3, and we’d be better off adding two. At least one safety would make sense, too. RB Trent Sullivan has been our #2 back for a while – not sure if he is up to carrying the main load, so that might be a priority too. We can live with our current gang at DE, but that’s a spot I’ll watch for an impact addition as well. CB Omar Carlisle gave up 59 passes last year (!) but I still reward him with a new five year contract. He signs for under $10m a year, and that’s a bargain, if he ever starts playing like his big red bars says he is capable. We will have some work to do next year in free agency, but locking up this young guy makes a ton of sense, and I will likely target S Rusty Woodson later this season. I decide that CB is a tough position to fill, and that George Pujols is a pretty decent guy to keep around, so our offer is a real one to keep him here for four more seasons, likely as our top reserve DB and nickelback. CB Harvey Madison is an improvement as an affinity leader, and gives us one more usable body at CB for a few years, too. Signing these two basically takes the pressure off at the CB position for us. If we draft someone, fine, but no hurry. DE Terrance Harden is a solid position leader, and a guy who could rush the passer if we had to send him in. He’s fairly cheap for a long term deal, which practically speaking just makes him a two or three year signee, I’ll guess. I’m uninspired by the crop of RBs, so we sign balanced-ratings RB Chester Kelly who is decent enough to play, but we will look for someone either in or after the draft, for certain. WR Orlando Seebaldt is a decent receiver, and a good return man, and a guy I missed out on a couple seasons back – we’ll make another attempt to bring him aboard. LG Leon Garvin is a solid veteran guard, a guy we hope might stop the bleeding we are seeing from our long-term signee there, Maurice Donhoff. Nothing too special, thus the one-year stopgap offer. Reneg – CB Omar Carlisle, 5y $46.5m RFA – TE Travis Buffington, 3y $6m 1YR – LG Leon Garvin, $6m 2YR - 3YR – WR Orlando Seebaldt, $7.5m 4YR – CB George Pujols, $26m 5YR – RB Chester Kelly, $51m (3y, $7.5m) 6YR – CB Harvey Madison, $$135m (3y, $9m) 7YR – DE Terrance Harden, $163m (3y, $13m) I again miss out on WR Seebaldt (odd) but go after a pretty decent reserve-caliber WR in his place, picking up 7th year wideout Kevin Warren who is also a good return man and special teamer. Same terms, actually. |
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03-16-2008, 08:17 AM
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#94 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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2034 Rookie Draft
After hitting most of our immediate need areas in free agency, we have liberty to dabble wherever we need to in the draft, I think. A playable RB would be nice, but I’m not wowed by anyone I see in this draft ahead of time. Perhaps an addition to the OL? Take a stab at a QB? Well, we have to land at least one QB just to get the roster legal, so that will come at some point, we know. We are on the clock, with one combine-skipping CB my scout liked, and one mixed-bag WR appearing like the best overall players in the draft for us. I’m really surprised when an OT, a guy who I was even tossing around as a possibility in rouund one, is still there a few picks before us in round two – so I make a modest trade to deal up a few slots to secure him in round two. I give up my 4th, but pick up their 6th and 7th rounders in the deal, and lock up a pretty solid-looking affinity lineman. Code:
Nothing shocking down the line – I defer to my scout for several picks later in the draft, and fall once again for my usual swoon over a super-fast QB. We’ll see if anyone is worth much from those later picks. I’m very optimistic about the top two picks, though. |
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03-16-2008, 08:17 AM
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#95 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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2034 Late Free Agency
I usually target a promising young player here, but I’m a bit disappointed with the available lot. I have a 2yr deal to spend, and on our roster safety is really our thinnest position – so I end up offering a new deal to Xavier Andrews, our own 4th year out-of-contract reserve. He’s good enough to play if need be, and takes the pressure off our 3rd round draft pick. I decide to keep LT Raymond Money at LT for now – but I’m still open to the idea of shifting him to (hopefully) become our long-term solution at LG. Anyway – that’s our only move here, as we are ready to see the camp results and get it together for another season. |
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03-16-2008, 08:18 AM
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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2034 Training Camp Report
Tampa Bay Player Report (TB 2034c - TB 2034d)
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03-16-2008, 08:18 AM
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#97 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Here are the big movers:
Code:
Well, no big movers among our rookies – that’s disappointing. We’re seeing a lot of veteran sliding, no surprise, and the reserves don’t look to be stepping into the roles we need them to fill. RB Daughtry gives us a pretty useless +1, he won’t ever develop into anything, I don’t think. This is a pretty bad camp. |
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03-16-2008, 08:18 AM
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#98 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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2034 Season
Benchmarks: Roster Rating – 75 (3rd) Cohesion – 100-73-75-93 My predictions: The passing game is fine, we get Swartz with about 3,500 and 26/16 Running game suffers, Chester Kelley is under 4 ypc for around 900 yds Defense improves, and DE Ronald Harmon actually posts 8 sacks We rebound slightly, and get a wild card at 10-6 Season narrative: We open with a big win over Atlanta, with our defense taking charge to get it 17-6. We continue with the smothering defense early on, as we get out to a 3-0 start with only 23 total points allowed. We slip up eventually, but this start gives us a lot of hope. At the halfway point, we are 7-1, and I judged RB Kelly a little harshly – he has indeed become our #1 back, not just a time-splitter, and despite only about 3.7 yards per carry, he’s well ahead of a 1,000 yard pace. Can’t complain with the 3-gema lead in the division at this point. And down the stretch we go, just managing every single game and securing the win, mostly pretty easily. I didn’t see this coming at all, but at 15-1, this ends up our best regular season thus far. Code:
Well, Swartz was very solid once again – more picks than I’d like, but he is what he is. Kelly was not all that efficient, but it’s tough to complain too much for a guy we picked up on a bargain contract. Bryant Czyz is still reliable as a superstar caliber player, and was really the focal point of the offense. G Bart Rodgers had another all-pro worthy season up front, and the line played well overall, yielding a miniscule 18 sacks all season, tied for the league low. We rotated a lot of injured defenders this year, but got a good season anyway. LB Gerald posted the big pass rush numbers, but Harmon and Newman were both pretty solid as our DE starters. No complaints there, either. A teamwide PR% of 78+ is really good, as well. This team played very good defense, and that was the big difference between last season and this. |
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03-16-2008, 08:18 AM
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#99 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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2034 postseason narrative
Okay, we are in decent health – TE is the only position where we are really clipped, with a guy off the street stepping in to play for us a bit. The week off helped, though, in many slots to get guys up from Q to P. Divisional Playoff: Waashington (10-7) at Tampa Bay (15-1) Not the game we had in mind… early fireworks set the stage, and the game was dominated by big plays. We get a big lead and withstand a late rush to hold on, 41-31. DR Darren Newman posts game MVP numbers with 2.5 sacks and 3 hurries. He’s becoming a real force for us. Conference Title Game: San Francisco (9-9) at Tampa Bay (16-1) Some kind of joke, right? We are 12 point favorites, and need to show it. It’s a sluggish start, but we get a 10-0 lead, and then strangle them from there. A 30-7 win, completely dominating, sends us on to our second championship game berth. Championship Game: Tennessee (15-3) vs. Tampa Bay (17-1) We are favored here, but it looks pretty even to me, really. RB Bennie Thornton is the workhorse back for the Titans, and is still getting it done. First play from scrimmage he rips off a 29 yard carry to set the tone early. They drive for an opening TD, and pick us off on our opening possession, to get ahead by 10-0 at the end of the first quarter. We connect on one of two FG tries in the second quarter, an Tennessee kicks one of their own just before the half to lead 13-3. Not a dramatic difference in yardage, but we need to get some points on the board if we want to get this one back in reach, obviously. The third quarter is more give and take, but we fumble a punt and give the Titans a great chance to stretch things out. A one play, 9-yard drive makes it 20-3, and we are close to panic mode now. We respond with our first TD drive of the game – 10 points is a lot better than 17, but time is now starting to loom as the 3rd quarter ends. We come close to stopping them a couple times, but they convert the big third downs and get into position to kick a FG, to make the score 23-10. We need our offense to click once again to have any hope – but instead we go three and out, and then let the Titans roll right into scoring position again. Their possession eats a ton of clock, and we are dying on defense now. They finish with a 56 yard FG, which is good, but the clock is all the way down to 2 minutes and we trail by 16. So, what would be nice? How about a kickoff return TD? Done. Two pointer? Done. Game on? Maybe. We try an onside kick, but Tennessee gets it. And we lack the timeouts to do much – so, all that phony late excitement was really for naught. It’s a 26-18 final, but wasn’t really that close. RB Bennie Thornton watches their 4/4 kicker get the game MVP award (getting lots of credit for that late 56-yarder that really made no difference, I guess), but he himself posted 134 yards rushing, 29 more receiving, and was clearly the most outstanding player in the game. So it goes – we couldn’t keep him, so we’re glad he could do well elsewhere, I guess, just wish it hadn’t come against us. |
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03-16-2008, 08:18 AM
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#100 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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2034 Season Coda
G Bart Rodgers and LB Ellis Gerald again make the all-pro lists. NO surprise there, both have been solid performers for us for years now. We also get 2nd team honors for our kicker Kent Dennis, who seemingly had a ton of long FGs this year – 14/24 from 40+ yards. Go figure, he’s rated 17/17 overall. Anyway – so, we put together really our best season thus far, basically springing out of nowhere. We had a lower roster rating than usual, and had out usual spate of injuries, but we played like world beaters most of the year. I don’t have any explanation for it, really. My best guess is that despite my rules that seem to require some “churn” of players, I still am much better off than the dimwitted AI teams in terms of cohesion, just by having kept around a few key players a long time (2 WR and our CB/S especially). |
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