Werewolf Small Game XI -- Divination Nation! (GAME OVER WOLVES WIN!! )

[path12]

Originally Posted by Lathum

ordinararaly I wouldn't come out swinging but since longest help vote could be a tie breaker I wanted to get it out there early.

Lynch ties will be broken by coin flip per the vote last night. I'll update the rules post.

[DaddyTorgo]

damm. that was a quick turnaround. got my role-PM at 12:45am with a deadline of noon for a scan request. didn't check the board this AM so didn't even see that. fortunately dear Path randomly scanned someone for me, and i have interesting results. going to go and check and read through the rules and what-not to try to see if there are disadvantages to revealing what i learned.

[Alan T]

I scanned Hoops and he turned up as a student for me.

So that means to me a 75% chance he is good and not lying about his 75% chance that lathum was bad. So worst case 50/50 for me that Lathum is bad Which is better than most day 1 votes.

It also makes me take any caution that Imthecrew is a wolf without more collaboration.

[Alan T]

So to update our list:

Lathum says ImTheCrew is a wolf
Hoopsguy says Lathum is a wolf


Cronin says DaddyTorgo is a student
Alan T says Hoopsguy is a student.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Alan T

So that means to me a 75% chance he is good and not lying about his 75% chance that lathum was bad. So worst case 50/50 for me that Lathum is bad .

I don't really understand this. Do you me it is 75% that hoops isn't bad and trying to save ITC?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I don't really understand this. Do you me it is 75% that hoops isn't bad and trying to save ITC?

No, the rules say I have a 75% chance of successfully scanning Hoopsguy. Since he scanned good to me, then thats a 75% chance that he is good.

So right now I trust Hoops more than anyone else, and put a bit more weight into his scan of you than your scan of ITC

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Alan T

No, the rules say I have a 75% chance of successfully scanning Hoopsguy. Since he scanned good to me, then thats a 75% chance that he is good.

So right now I trust Hoops more than anyone else, and put a bit more weight into his scan of you than your scan of ITC

well I think your math is off in terms of me being 75% bad.

[DaddyTorgo]

I know I am a villager, so my scan is 75% accurate and it returned that the world's greatest wolf is a wolf this game as well.

i'll try to break down what that means in a second in terms of probabilities of him lying vs. being honest and getting the wrong scan result

i do think it only benefits us to be very open about scans and scan results though. that way we can start to build up trust...if multiple people who are double-cleared good scan someone and they come back as good then they are likely good

VOTE LATHUM

cuz he's a wolf, assuming my scan was correct

[DaddyTorgo]

hoops and i both had lathum show up as a wolf? seems to me lathum is pretty darn wolfish

can someone run through the math. i guess we're looking at what...combinations? or permutations?

[Lathum]

interesting.

Well once I come up good it will be obvious daddytorgo could be trying to protect ITC.

I suggest 2 people scan DT and 2 scan ITC tonight.

[hoopsguy]

Lathum, Alan is working under the same 75% assumption for me that you would be working with for ITC.

We all obviously put the most trust in our own scan result. But after that, what scan results do you trust most? Alan is suggesting that he will apply the transitive property, trusting that the person he scanned as good (75% accurate) is accurately portraying their results (also with 75% accuracy).

I'm still very interested in seeing the other scan results. Both ITC and DT have posted since results went up, but haven't given their findings. Also, DT's post suggests that even if a result was not submitted that there will be a random scan - so everyone should have results.

From my perspective, it is clearly in our best interests to share information. We aren't trying to protect a role here. We are just trying to get the most data points to make an informed decision.

[Lathum]

I never said we shouldn't share information and I understand Alan's perspective. I just think his math is off.

It really doesn't matter at this point.

The real question is weather or not people will believe DT

[hoopsguy]

DT, there is a 1/4 chance of one person having a bad result. The second person would also have a 1/4 chance. So the chances of both getting it wrong is 1/16. I'll take my chances on this.

VOTE LATHUM

[DaddyTorgo]

hoops...you just missed my results. per my random scan assigned by path, lathum is a wolf.

cronin has already scanned me as good, meaning the rest of you should have 75% trust in that i'm good. i know i'm a villager, so i trust myself 100%.

why would lathum want 2 people to scan ME and ITC tonight if we've both been scanned once? That seems like 2 wasted scans (if we're willing to go with 2 scans per person being a reasonable level of certainty). maybe he's trying to protect fellow wolves by diverting scans?

and meanwhile we have 2 people confirming (both of whom have been singly confirmed as students) that lathum is a wolf. Now maybe Hoops+me+Lathum all got the bad-25% (or bad 20% in the case of lathum) scans, but the odds of that are pretty damm low. and why would i try to protect ITC? I wouldn't even know he was a wolf. The more likely scenario is lathum is evil and trying to get us to take out one villager + divert scans to people he suspects are not wolves since they've been cleared.

did that make sense?

[hoopsguy]

From the rules:

The wolves do not know each other. They have a 80% chance of correctly identifying the faction another player.

So it makes it harder to accept the concept of one wolf covering for another one at this point.

Here is how I could see that happening:
1. DT is a wolf and scanned ITC, identified him as wolf
2. DT scanned Lathum, identified him as a villager, and decided to back my "invalid" scan to put pressure on me the next day

I'm guessing there are other scenarios based on feel but I don't think the odds (12.5% choosing, or having chosen, ITC based on random numbers) really support DT having knowledge on ITC that would back the idea of him "covering" for him.

[Lathum]

DT. I suggest 2 people scan each of you because I am going to come up good.

It is obvious to me that you DIDN"T SCAN ME LAST NIGHT as you claim and you are attempting to save a fellow wolf.

That is the only logical comclusion since the odds are so low.

[Lathum]

Hoops, you are operating under the assumption that DT's random scan was on me and that I turned up bad.

Considering how long the odds are you don't see it likely DT is outright lying?

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

DT, there is a 1/4 chance of one person having a bad result. The second person would also have a 1/4 chance. So the chances of both getting it wrong is 1/16.

thanks. i don't do math. i couldn't figure if just multiplying the fractions together would be okay, or if we needed to get more statistical and do permutations or combinations or something

[Lathum]

Dola- not to mention I claimed ITC as a wolf long before anyone revealed a scan about me. If I was a wolf I HAVE NO REASON TO DO THAT since I would have no knowledge of being scanned

[Lathum]

Note that it is possible for the wolves to kill one of their own.

lyncing me also takes away the possibility of a wolf being night killed

[Chief Rum]

For two villagers, there is a 9/16's (56.25%) chance of both identifying the same player as the correct faction.

That isn't exactly a lock, as I see it. That said, two people both rolling wolf for Lathum is damning at this point, and if true, certainly does put his reveal of ITC in doubt.

I scanned AlanT, as I suggested I might, and he came up clean to me.

I am going to...

VOTE LATHUM

This is just in case I don't get back here to read new input later on. I should be able to check in later today before I go into work, but I wanted a vote in if I couldn't.

Still wrapping my head around the reveals and percentages.

BTW, to Render, it is fairly typical at the start of games for players to reveal they are villagers. That's all I did. Now here in this game, everyone is a seer, so saying this doesn't matter much. But it always seems like players who don't get unreasonably attacked, so I was covering my bases. I would ratehr we not waste a day on me.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Lathum

well I think your math is off in terms of me being 75% bad.

Make sure to let Path know then, since his math is off too.

Originally Posted by path12

The students have a 75% chance of correctly identifying the faction of another player. Each student can scan another player every night.

[st.cronin]

I agree it seems likely that Lathum is a wolf. However, I also think it is still plausible that ITC is also a wolf - at any rate I'll leave my vote there for now.

[Lathum]

I am simply amazed no one is considering the possibility that DT is lying about who he scanned.

Go ahead and lynch me, at least we learn alot about people.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Make sure to let Path know then, since his math is off too.

obviously my point isn't coming across

[Alan T]

Lathum says ImTheCrew is a wolf
Hoopsguy says Lathum is a wolf
Daddytorgo says Lathum is a wolf.

Cronin says DaddyTorgo is a student
Alan T says Hoopsguy is a student.
Chief Rum says Alan T is a student.

Results unknown:

ImTheCrew
ntndeacon
RendeR

[Lathum]

ITC said he scanned Render and he came up student

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Lathum

obviously my point isn't coming across

Well, it seemed to me you were trying to twist facts in an effort to wiggle out of a lynch.

Its a fact that a good person has a 75% chance of an accurate scan.

I scanned Hoops as good, so 75% likely that is true
Hoops scanned you as bad, so 75% chance that is true
Cronin scanned Daddytorgo as good so 75% chance that is true
DaddyTorgo scanned you as bad, so 75% chance that is true.

All in all, you have a chain of 4 seperate scans that tie together. Its possible that one or even two of them are wrong. But thats why I said before I felt it was 50/50 that you were bad. Chief posted something closer to 56% which sounds pretty decent.

Either way, right now I would be very suprised to see us end up with a better candidate than you.

[st.cronin]

I'm trying to figure out why if Lathum were a wolf, he would point to another player and say "wolf." Do people think

a) he scanned ITC, and ITC is a student
b) he scanned ITC, and ITC is a wolf
c) he scanned somebody else

Personally I think b) is most likely, even if you posit that Lathum is a wolf.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I'm trying to figure out why if Lathum were a wolf, he would point to another player and say "wolf." Do people think

a) he scanned ITC, and ITC is a student
b) he scanned ITC, and ITC is a wolf
c) he scanned somebody else

Personally I think b) is most likely, even if you posit that Lathum is a wolf.

Its very easy for a wolf in this game to make a claim about someone and it end up being wrong.. "Woops guess the 25% chance I was wrong bit me there".

I'm not going to condemn ITC until we get some collaborating scans on him (like we did with Lathum). Likewise I think its important for us to get a second scan on people (like myself, Hoops, etc) and even more important to get a first scan on people who havent been scanned yet.

Can 2 seperate scans of someone be wrong? Yes. Is it likely they both would be wrong? No.

[Alan T]

Oh, and before I forget.

Vote Lathum

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by ImTheCrew

wow im shocked lathum that you would come out this early with false accusations i am villiger, did anyone scan lathum to see if he was a wolf??
25% chance you got the wrong info 75% your'e a wolf so right now ill go with the % and

VOTE LATHUM

ps i scanned Render and he was clean

You guys missed IMC's scan of Render, for what good at the moment that is (given doubts about ITC, I mean).

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Lathum

ITC said he scanned Render and he came up student

Whoops, Lathum beat me to the punch.

[Lathum]

Like I said before, I have zero to gain by accusing ITC so early in the day unless I was positive ( or 75%) he is a wolf. It would be the dumbest wolf move ever since it would guarentee me being dead by day 2, not really an optimal strategy.

This would be totaly different if I was accused THEN came out and said I scanned ITC and he is bad but I cast the first stone.

If you lynch me tonight not only are we down a villegar but it eliminates the possibility of ITC being accidentaly night killed. HE will be scanned, come up bad, lynched tomorrow and we lose a day.

[Lathum]

Dola-

You guys are going to lose this game early.

Follow this logic.

We lynch ITC today and he comes up good, I am dead meat tomorrow. Assuming you think I am a wolf we have 1 dead wolf and one dead villegar.

We lynch me today, I will come up good, we waste scans tonight on ITC and he gets lynched tomorrow. Still one dead wolf and one dead villegar, the only difference is we waste a day and valuable night scans.

Trust me, lynching me a a horrible move.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Like I said before, I have zero to gain by accusing ITC so early in the day unless I was positive ( or 75%) he is a wolf. It would be the dumbest wolf move ever since it would guarentee me being dead by day 2, not really an optimal strategy.

This would be totaly different if I was accused THEN came out and said I scanned ITC and he is bad but I cast the first stone.

If you lynch me tonight not only are we down a villegar but it eliminates the possibility of ITC being accidentaly night killed. HE will be scanned, come up bad, lynched tomorrow and we lose a day.

No, I don't believe this. I believe your move is the smart wolf move, and waiting to be accused would be the bad wolf move. You show confidence in your vote, that your scan of Imthecrew is infallible with your vote so quick before even listening for other secondary scans of him.

This tells me that you know you would be a popular target, you knew that it was likely that at least one person would scan you if not multiple. You knew that you might have a tough time dodging that bullet, so instead you pull out a day 1 target, and pick someone who likely doesn't have a history for talking their way out of a lynch.

You know that if imthecrew is lynched and ends up good, you wouldn't get lynched right away, as this isn't like other games. Being wrong on a scan doesn't make you bad, it just makes you unlucky. And you know you could talk your way out of that.

Unfortunatly for you 2 people scanned you as good, both of whom were scanned by other people as good as well. Is there a chance that you're good still? Sure. But right now we have a better chance of you being bad than anyone else in the game, and that says something.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Dola-

You guys are going to lose this game early.

Follow this logic.

We lynch ITC today and he comes up good, I am dead meat tomorrow. Assuming you think I am a wolf we have 1 dead wolf and one dead villegar.

We lynch me today, I will come up good, we waste scans tonight on ITC and he gets lynched tomorrow. Still one dead wolf and one dead villegar, the only difference is we waste a day and valuable night scans.

Trust me, lynching me a a horrible move.

If you somehow end up turning up good, then we know there is the 75% chance that Imthecrew is bad at that point and can be an ok day 2 target even without wasting more scans on him. Your turning up good would be a voucher for what you gave us in the way of information. Only if you turn up bad do we then have to question the motivation behind the delivery of your information.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Dola-

You guys are going to lose this game early.

Follow this logic.

We lynch ITC today and he comes up good, I am dead meat tomorrow. Assuming you think I am a wolf we have 1 dead wolf and one dead villegar.

We lynch me today, I will come up good, we waste scans tonight on ITC and he gets lynched tomorrow. Still one dead wolf and one dead villegar, the only difference is we waste a day and valuable night scans.

Trust me, lynching me a a horrible move.

That makes no sense. A 1 for 1 swap is a GOOD move for the village. Its pretty clear that one or both of you and ITC are wolves.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

That makes no sense. A 1 for 1 swap is a GOOD move for the village. Its pretty clear that one or both of you and ITC are wolves.

I understand that but either way it is a 1-1 swap.

Lynch ITC today and we don't lose tomorrow and tonights scans.

And AlanT, you can't seriously tell me at least one person will scan ITC tonight and IMO that is a wasted scan.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I understand that but either way it is a 1-1 swap.

Lynch ITC today and we don't lose tomorrow and tonights scans.

And AlanT, you can't seriously tell me at least one person will scan ITC tonight and IMO that is a wasted scan.

Either way, though, you're probably going to get lynched tomorrow, unless about 3 people scan you and all say you come up as student.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I understand that but either way it is a 1-1 swap.

Lynch ITC today and we don't lose tomorrow and tonights scans.

And AlanT, you can't seriously tell me at least one person will scan ITC tonight and IMO that is a wasted scan.

If you turn up bad? then people definitly need to scan ITC, but not everyone. I already stated my opinon on scans. Its important to have everyone scanned at some point, and also just as important to get second scans on people, including myself.

I assume you will turn out bad, and we won't be able to take your scan of ITC at face value either way. If you turn out good, then we know its a 75% chance that ITC is bad, and we probably don't have to really waste scans on it and look elsewhere instead.

With you being good, and his scanning bad, would make him a decent day 2 target if nothing else presented itself during the night. However I find that unlikely to happen, and think the more likely possibility is that you will end up bad and we won't know anything about ITC .

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Either way, though, you're probably going to get lynched tomorrow, unless about 3 people scan you and all say you come up as student.

so your saying if ITC was to get lynched today, come up wolf I would still be a target tomorrow?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Lathum

so your saying if ITC was to get lynched today, come up wolf I would still be a target tomorrow?

It would be foolish of us to lynch ITC based on your word alone rather than lynch you based on multiple other people's words.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Lathum

so your saying if ITC was to get lynched today, come up wolf I would still be a target tomorrow?

Yes.

[Lathum]

BTW- Daddytorgo made his reveal AFTER St.Cronin "cleared" him. It would be a solid wolf play to say he scanned me once he has a level of trust in order to save ITC.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Yes.

why?

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Lathum

why?

Because the suspicion of you has nothing to do with ITC. He's a totally different issue. The evidence against you has nothing to do with him.

[st.cronin]

dola

The evidence against ITC is colored by suspicions about you: It makes more sense for somebody else to scan him tonight.

So its like this:

2 claims that Lathum is a wolf by people that have been "cleared." Its impossible that all 4 of those players are bad, and its improbable that more than one of them is.

1 claim that ITC is a wolf by a wolf who has been outed.

There is no way we lynch anybody but you today, and even if somehow you are able to persuade the village that we should lynch ITC, the claims against you will still be strong enough that you will likely go down tomorrow.

[Lathum]

Well I am done. I have to leave in a littlte bit and will be out until past the deadline.


Once I come up good I suggest you look at DT and ITC eventhough looking at ITC will be a waste since he should be lynched today.

I guess my only hope is NTN or Render scanned me.

[st.cronin]

For tonight I plan to scan ntndeacon.