FOFC GroupThink 2023: We take over the Detroit Lions

[QuikSand]

Okay, so... let's broaden this a bit. Among the "impact free agents" this year, there are a few other guys who might fit the bill as "go for it" moves on a team that feels like it's entering a window.

S Jessie Bates, Jordan Poyer, or Chauncey Gardner-Johnson
DT Javon Hargrave or Daron Payne
CB Jamel Dean or James Bradberry
DL DreMont Jones, Marcus Devenport, Yannick Ngakoue or Dalvin Tomlinson

So if we're talking about a trade-for-big-contract guy we also should be talking about just the sign-to-big-contract guys as well.

[albionmoonlight]

I can give insight into two former (or soon to be former) Saints

Marcus Davenport has all of the physical tools you want and then some. Apparently, when he is motivated, he's the most impactful player on the team, and it isn't even close.

But, reading between the lines, he simply does not love football. Motivation is a consistent problem. And he's always got some sort of nagging injury (the coming back from which is also related to lack of love of the game, I'd suspect).

I see him as signing a decent FA contract this season, underperforming, getting cut, retiring from football. And then living out his days happily as a high school English teacher or something like that.

All of which is to say I wouldn't touch him. I don't think that even the knee-biter can keep him motivated.


Chauncy Gardner-Johnson can play safety or slot corner. The Saints let him go b/c he wanted top corner money, and the Saints wanted to pay him safety money. So they got what they could for him in a trade.

Now, the market will decide what he is worth. And if the money is right, I think he could be a great fit for the Lions as just an all-purpose defensive back and not worry too much about whether he is a safety or a corner. He can blitz. He's not afraid to get up and do run support. And he can jam with the best of them. His attitude fits this team, and he's got a lot of talent.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Okay, so... let's broaden this a bit. Among the "impact free agents" this year, there are a few other guys who might fit the bill as "go for it" moves on a team that feels like it's entering a window.

S Jessie Bates, Jordan Poyer, or Chauncey Gardner-Johnson
DT Javon Hargrave or Daron Payne
CB Jamel Dean or James Bradberry
DL DreMont Jones, Marcus Devenport, Yannick Ngakoue or Dalvin Tomlinson

So if we're talking about a trade-for-big-contract guy we also should be talking about just the sign-to-big-contract guys as well.

This is a great list.

I particularly like Chauncey Gardner-Johnson. especially after reading albion's take, and Javon Hargrave (Daron Payne has been franchised). I am not sure if the Lions could afford those two and Lavonte David (likely not), but that would be a huge injection of veteran talent for the team and give the Lions more flexibility in the draft.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

#KeepGoff

I think that the Lions are in a good position with him. Some pocket change roster bonuses ($5 million this year and next year) and a $30 million annual cap hit this season and in 2024. That is very doable. And it gives the team two more full seasons to make a decision on him. The best thing they can do with him is nothing.

I would avoid the temptation of extending him to reduce his cap hit. If it turns out that last season was fool's gold, you don't want to be locked into it though 2026.

I also think that you have to consider that this is the Lions. You CANNOT ask this fanbase to have the patience for another rebuild with a rookie QB. This team has momentum after last season, and you can't just throw that away.

And Dan Campbell's is part of this, too. Who is a better QB for the knee biter than the guy who's first team was so sick of him that they traded assets to get rid of him? There's a synergy to the cast-off QB leading the Lions to the playoffs. And normally, I think that that kind of momentum/synergy stuff is overrated. But if there's one coach who makes me believe that it matters--it's Dan Campbell.

So maybe Goff isn't taking you to a Super Bowl. But there's no way I'd cast him off to draft a rookie.

Maybe grab a guy in the 4th round to groom.

Stafford took the Rams to the Super Bowl. Goff did the same. According to my metric, Goff had the largest jump from 2021 to 2022 in the NFL. So you probably can't expect him to be as effective in 2023 as he was in 2022. The 2022 version could have won.

I agree that the key for the Lions is getting a couple of impact players on defense.

This is a team that was operating at a playoff level, a threat to get that second playoff victory in the last 65 seasons, at the end of the year.

However, I'd caution that teams picking up six wins from the previous season generally regress. While the defense didn't remain on the path of "worst in the history of the NFL" as the season progressed, they did lead the NFL in total yardage allowed.

As noted, the division is wide open. Minnesota has to be the worst 13-win team ever, Green Bay was uncharacteristically bad on offense and the Bears are awful. They should take a shot now. Start with a run-stopper and build up that secondary depth.

[albionmoonlight]

The Athletic Football show is doing a thing where Robert Mays is at the combine interviewing beat reporters for various teams. He talked to the guy for the Lions (50:00 minute mark of whichever podcast is was--2 or 3 day ago).

Our thoughts in this thread match up to what the local guy thought--the biggest needs are CB and DL. Though WR (or playmaking TE) is kind of a sneaky need b/c you need someone to be the 3rd receiving threat on offense.

Mays also made the best argument I heard in favor of drafting a QB early. Basically, you start with the assumption that Goff is good but not great. The sort of guy you can win with but not win because of. And he's good enough to make the playoffs with a good team, but isn't going to get you over the hump. OK, I can buy that.

Then you think that in a few years, the Lions may look around after a couple of short playoff trips and think they need an upgrade.

And if you can see that coming--why not try to head it off and draft a guy while you have the #6 pick and the ability to draft there or even trade up from there to get the guy you want? If things go according to plan, you will be picking in the mid-20s going forward, so you won't have the opportunity to grab the QB when it is apparent you need him. You need to do it now.

He was high on Anthony Richardson for the Lions because he is so raw, but with Goff entrenched, he won't be expected to start for a year or two. And considering his upside, he could turn into a special player.

Personally, I am still more in favor of picking a guy mid-round and hoping you hit a lottery ticket there. This is not a situation where the Lions have the #1 pick and Andrew Luck is out there. The #6 pick gets you maybe the 3rd or 4th QB off the board in a QB class that isn't a disaster like last year, but that certainly does not have people super excited. I don't know that the guy you pick at #6 is much more likely to hit than the guy you pick in the 3rd round.

But it was a pretty good argument, and I would completely understand if the Lions decided that one of these QBs was special, and if he's there at #6, don't overthink it. Just draft him and let Goff leave in a year or two.

[albionmoonlight]

dola: They also mentioned how the Lions are basically grooming their passing game coordinator (forget his name) to take over as OC when their OC gets the likely head coaching gig coming his way.

That's good team management. If you can see the writing on the wall, start preparing for it now.

I like this team.

[flere-imsaho]

Yeah, did the Lions suddenly replace their front office with competent people when I wasn't looking? They aren't acting like the Bears the poorly-run organization I've known all my life.

[Solecismic]

I get that Richardson is the "It Girl" (ancient reference, no offense intended) right now and is likely to be a high first-round pick. I look at his stats at Florida and see nothing, but his name has been coming up so much lately that there has to be something behind it.

Career, though, 54.7% completions, 24/15 ratio on 393 career passing attempts. Runs well. Not a Hurts/Lance/Fields type where that's his first thought, but he's elusive and fast. Perfect size for the position. Strong arm.

It's all projection, though. I read articles years ago that suggested the one stat from college that evaluators found most useful was number of starts against power-five opponents. So maybe if Richardson hadn't declared early, you'd see Heisman-level performance in 2023.

Do you bank a franchise on that? He needs to play, not watch.

Here's a list of drafted quarterbacks with less than 400 career passing attempts at power-five universities since 1998:

2016: Cardale Jones (4th round)
2011: Cam Newton (1st overall)
2004: Adrian McPherson (5th round)
2004: Matt Cassel (7th round)
2003: Drew Henson (6th round)
2003: Gibran Hamdan (7th round)
2002: Randy Fasani (5th round)
2001: A.J. Feeley (5th round)
2001: Michael Vick (1st overall)

Trey Lance (3rd overall, 2021) had less than 400 career attempts at an FCS school.

So this isn't unprecedented by any means. In fact, while Lance and Newton played extremely well in college, Vick's college numbers look a lot like Richardson's.

Someone's going to invest in Richardson. High risk, high potential reward. If you think you're close to winning now, though, seems like a bad idea to use a top pick on someone who won't contribute as a rookie.

[albionmoonlight]

Iowa's Jack Campbell is a middle linebacker NFL scouts destined to love

This guy's having a great combine, so he might end up going pretty high, but this writeup makes him feel really Detroit Lionish. And his RAS score is super high--so he's got the talent. He's not just a white Midwestern tryhard. He's a white Midwestern tryhard who can play

Maybe grab him at 48 or 55 and stick him next to Rodriguez, and you've got 2 young athletic ILBs on rookie deals. You don't even have to think about the position for 3 years.

[QuikSand]

Using pick 16 on Richardson, the shoot-the-moon QB prospect, felt like it made sense to me the first time I heard it. I have seen him climbing up mock drafts, ahead of Stroud, even, and well ahead of 16. I don't like using pick 6 on him, I don't think.

What if Stroud "falls" past the 7-8-9 band of supposedly QB-hungry teams? Any interest in a Jameson-like move up to take advantage of the "last guy to fit a specific team need" like last year?

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Iowa's Jack Campbell is a middle linebacker NFL scouts destined to love

This guy's having a great combine, so he might end up going pretty high, but this writeup makes him feel really Detroit Lionish. And his RAS score is super high--so he's got the talent. He's not just a white Midwestern tryhard. He's a white Midwestern tryhard who can play

Maybe grab him at 48 or 55 and stick him next to Rodriguez, and you've got 2 young athletic ILBs on rookie deals. You don't even have to think about the position for 3 years.

I love the idea of an athletic linebacker named Jack Campbell. Yes, please!

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Iowa's Jack Campbell is a middle linebacker NFL scouts destined to love

This guy's having a great combine, so he might end up going pretty high, but this writeup makes him feel really Detroit Lionish. And his RAS score is super high--so he's got the talent. He's not just a white Midwestern tryhard. He's a white Midwestern tryhard who can play

Maybe grab him at 48 or 55 and stick him next to Rodriguez, and you've got 2 young athletic ILBs on rookie deals. You don't even have to think about the position for 3 years.

I think we need an opinion from our resident Iowa expert.

[B & B]

Couple things.

Jack Campbell seems like hes already wearing Honolulu Blue.
Want NOTHING to do with QB Richardson.

Id like Det to trade down from 6 to 9 with Carolina giving us an extra 3rd rounder (dont care this year or next) and still get one of the top CBs. Panthers can take that QB risk.

Use that 3rd or 4th rounder to take Hooker as a developmental qb

[QuikSand]

NFL Mock Draft 2023: New QB Goes No. 1

semi-reputable outlet releases new mock draft with QB Richardson going 1.1 WTAF

[albionmoonlight]

His rise (or at least the perception of it) has been amazing to watch.

In, like, two weeks, I've gone from seeing people on the Saints message boards suggesting that they could draft him at 1.29 and everyone shouting them down because that's way too early to some mocks now putting him at 1.1 and everyone agreeing that he's probably not getting out of the top 6.

[B & B]

Its preposterous

At best hes a rich mans DTR but 2 1/2 inches taller with 20% less accuracy and nothing but green bars.

HARD pass.

[bhlloy]

Front Office Football Central - View Single Post - NFL 2022-23 Season Thread

I think NFL GMs probably would have ended up there anyway, but Mahomes and especially Allen I think have broken the risk/reward calculation on potential top 5 QB's. If you don't find one of those guys when you have a chance, you probably aren't sticking around a team drafting in the top 10 very long.

Speaking of LB, Noah Sewell has tested pretty well at the combine. Lots of smoke linking him to the Lions for obvious reasons.

[bhlloy]

DOLA - I don't think Hooker is lasting to the 3rd or 4th either, not even close. Jeremiah's rankings are always a little... contrarian but I'm pretty sure I just saw he's his #2 QB. He'll get somebody trading back into the late first or at the very least the start of day 2 for him.

[Solecismic]

I can't quite get a handle on why these things change so much after players declare for the draft or finish their senior seasons.

Perhaps it's that they're free to talk to agents and agents can contact evaluators. What's becoming clear is that quarterbacks drafted after the first round are less likely to eventually become starters than ten years ago.

Bad news for the 2022 crop and teams that look forced to go with younger quarterbacks who didn't go in the first round.

Life is getting more and more complex for quarterbacks and I can't state enough that it's a copycat league. When I see someone as unaccomplished as Daniel Jones cheered in the media as "breaking out" for a decent, but fairly average season, I worry that perhaps copycat has become a parody of itself. Now Jones wants more than $45 million, allegedly. Could be a "screw you, Giants, we'll make you pay for declining the option" and there's no market above $25 million. But I suspect there's something there since so many teams need quarterbacks.

It's enough that I think the Lions, who have a guy with plus talent whose problem seemed to be maturity. He's now 28, has Super Bowl experience and did extremely well last season... they shouldn't even think new quarterback while this works itself out.

[QuikSand]

2023 NFL Mock Draft | Fanspeak On The Clock Simulator

TEAM PICKS
6: R1 P6 CB Christian Gonzalez - Oregon
18: R1 P18 RB Bijan Robinson - Texas
48: R2 P17 TE Luke Musgrave - Oregon State
55: R2 P24 DL Karl Brooks - Bowling Green
81: R3 P18 LB DeMarvion Overshown - Texas
154: R5 P18 WR Ronnie Bell - Michigan
183: R6 P6 G Jaylon Thomas - SMU
194: R6 P17 S Quindell Johnson - Memphis

...'tis the season. The back end is very, very thin. I do not actually want to draft a RB for this team, but Bijan at 16 gave me a little tingle and that was worth it.

[QuikSand]

6: R1 P6 CB Christian Gonzalez - Oregon
18: R1 P18 DL Calijah Kancey - Pittsburgh
48: R2 P17 G Steve Avila - TCU
55: R2 P24 QB Hendon Hooker - Tennessee
81: R3 P18 LB DeMarvion Overshown - Texas
154: R5 P18 WR Zakhari Franklin - UTSA
183: R6 P6 LB Dee Winters - TCU
194: R6 P17 TE Cameron Latu - Alabama

...feels closer. And I want to trade down from 1.6, this engine doesn't allow trades so I'm just taking my best fit guy there.

[bhlloy]

I started Tyree Wilson and then Gonzalez dropped to 17 but I took Ringo instead at the next pick… I agree that there’s not really value at 6 and hopefully one of the QBs drops there and you get somebody like the Panthers moving up…

Hooker was available for me too in the 3rd, that’s a no brainer IMO but just doesn’t seem likely to me he’s there that long. If you picked up another second for trading down for #9, I think I would take that shot in the second round every day.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

2023 NFL Mock Draft | Fanspeak On The Clock Simulator

TEAM PICKS
6: R1 P6 CB Christian Gonzalez - Oregon
18: R1 P18 RB Bijan Robinson - Texas
48: R2 P17 TE Luke Musgrave - Oregon State
55: R2 P24 DL Karl Brooks - Bowling Green
81: R3 P18 LB DeMarvion Overshown - Texas
154: R5 P18 WR Ronnie Bell - Michigan
183: R6 P6 G Jaylon Thomas - SMU
194: R6 P17 S Quindell Johnson - Memphis

...'tis the season. The back end is very, very thin. I do not actually want to draft a RB for this team, but Bijan at 16 gave me a little tingle and that was worth it.

If Bijan Robinson is there at 18, he’s too good a talent to pass up. I think RB is more of a need than it may appear. It looks like the Lions may bring back Jamal Williams aka “ Swag kazekage, leader of the hidden village of the den”, but given how limited Swift has been with injuries, Robinson would really help the Lions offense do what it wants to do - run the ball effectively and play action passing.

I don’t love a corner at six, but it’s a huge need and mocks seem to fall that way in terms of what’s available.

[QuikSand]

I did a 4-round draft at 2023 NFL Mock Draft Simulator With Free Trades - Pro Football Network with no trades, and basically "no nonsense" (ignoring guys who seemed to be absurdly undervalued)...and this looks pretty close to a solid baseline to me:

1.06 EDGE Tyree Wilson, Texas Tech
1.18 CB Cam Smith, South Carolina
2.17 TE Dalton Kincaid, Utah
3rd LB Jack Campbell, Iowa
3rd G Steve Avlia, TCU

[QuikSand]

In my mind, that's your basic by-the-book draft for the Lions, especially if we assume they bring in someone beefy for the DL via free agency (which feels like the main priority not tended to with these early picks).

[QuikSand]

#NorthStar

Detroit head coach Dan Campbell says: #Lions grade players off the tape, not running 40s at the Combine in pajamas. pic.twitter.com/PPgi6bqvw7

— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) March 1, 2023

[NobodyHere]

Just for the sake of discussion, what trade value does Jared Goff have?

[QuikSand]

Hmmm, I'd imagine fairly little. Let's assume that he is seen as roughly as attractive a starting option, globally, as Jimmy Garoppolo. Seems about right, to me.

Right now all the QB oxygen is being taken up by Carr openly dancing for strangers, Rodgers mulling his options in darkness, and... basically that's it. Nobody is talking about Jimmy G, he's likely just reserved for the teams that don't land/sign a big fish, but who think of themselves as legit contenders, like maybe the Buccs, Commanders, Saints, Jets, Raiders? So one of those team likely wends itself into being okay with 2/40 for Jimmy G?

Goff counts as 2/63 under the contract you'd assume with a trade. Last year base not guaranteed, which is good. But still not easy-to-swallow terms, I wouldn't think.

So... maybe a middling pick, I'd guess. Maybe you get a 3rd for him from a teal disappointed they lost out in the big stakes race, then also missed out on Jimmy G?

[Solecismic]

The problem with trading for an established quarterback is that you're going to have to give him a new contract soon enough, almost certainly after his first season.

So if it pays off, you're paying a premium price. If it doesn't, you're looking for a quarterback again. I think that's why we're seeing this relatively new trend of established quarterbacks switching teams. It almost never used to happen.

He should be worth much more than a mid-round pick, but that's just not how things work these days.

Right now, it's a waiting game. Lots of posturing, planning. Franchise deadline is Tuesday afternoon. Free agency begins the following Wednesday. Until that bidding begins for Garoppolo, Carr and the players who aren't franchised, the market won't take shape.

I think it will be beyond crazy. So many teams don't even have a quarterback right now.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

I did a 4-round draft at 2023 NFL Mock Draft Simulator With Free Trades - Pro Football Network with no trades, and basically "no nonsense" (ignoring guys who seemed to be absurdly undervalued)...and this looks pretty close to a solid baseline to me:

1.06 EDGE Tyree Wilson, Texas Tech
1.18 CB Cam Smith, South Carolina
2.17 TE Dalton Kincaid, Utah
3rd LB Jack Campbell, Iowa
3rd G Steve Avlia, TCU

Here’s my 7 round with trades on… I think the trades aren’t realistic and some of the player values are screwy, but I certainly love these results

1.14 CB Kelee Ringo, Georgia
1.26 EDGE Lukas Van Ness, Iowa
2.46 TE Dalton Kincaid, Utah
2.48 QB Hendon Hooker, Tennessee
2.55 S Christopher Smith, Georgia
2.58 OG Jarrett Patterson, Notre Dame
3.81 LB Jack Campbell, Iowa
4.117 LB Daiyan Henley, Washington State
5.154 DT Zacch Pickens, South Carolina
6.183 S Jalen Greene, Mississippi State
6.194 RB Deuce Vaughn, Kansas State

2024 NE 1st

Clearly way too much value coming back in trade, but I like the value pretty much everywhere. Van Ness and Hutchinson could develop the be an absolute nightmare. Guys like Ringo, Kincaid and Campbell just seem to belong playing for this coaching staff. Hooker is a roll of the dice on a developmental guy who can sit behind Goff for a year or two. And Henley might be my favorite player in the draft - I’d put good money on him becoming an all pro. I think this would turn the future of the LB position in Detroit around in a hurry.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Hmmm, I'd imagine fairly little. Let's assume that he is seen as roughly as attractive a starting option, globally, as Jimmy Garoppolo. Seems about right, to me.

Right now all the QB oxygen is being taken up by Carr openly dancing for strangers, Rodgers mulling his options in darkness, and... basically that's it. Nobody is talking about Jimmy G, he's likely just reserved for the teams that don't land/sign a big fish, but who think of themselves as legit contenders, like maybe the Buccs, Commanders, Saints, Jets, Raiders? So one of those team likely wends itself into being okay with 2/40 for Jimmy G?

Goff counts as 2/63 under the contract you'd assume with a trade. Last year base not guaranteed, which is good. But still not easy-to-swallow terms, I wouldn't think.

So... maybe a middling pick, I'd guess. Maybe you get a 3rd for him from a teal disappointed they lost out in the big stakes race, then also missed out on Jimmy G?

The reason I ask is what if, just what if, a QB highly rated by the Lions slips to the number six pick. Do the Lions pounce on it? And if so then you have to see what value you can get from Goff.

[albionmoonlight]

Even if a guy falls to you who you think is the QB of the future, I still think you keep Goff. You turn it into an Alex Smith/Patrick Mahomes situation. Golff’s contract will also be tradable next year. None of these quarterbacks in the draft seem like guys you would want to stick on a playoff team and assume that they can lead you there as rookies.

[albionmoonlight]

I suspect that when the Carr contract numbers come out, Goff at $30 will look like even more of a great deal for the Lions.

[albionmoonlight]

dola: More evidence that the Lions QB situation is right where they want it.

So, $37.5 million per year. Not bad. Reasonably priced.

Derek Carr -- $37.5 million
Kirk Cousins -- $35 million
Jared Goff -- $33.5 million
Ryan Tannehill -- $29.5 million https://t.co/KSVHcUhLWg

— Nick Underhill (@nick_underhill) March 6, 2023

[albionmoonlight]

double dola:

The big question is going to be how those QBs fall. It feels like Indy will trade to #1 and take one. Houston will take one at #2. Arizona probably not. Bears won't at #4. Seattle probably not. So the question is whether a team will trade up to grab one before #6.

My guess is that at least one of the big four will be there at #6, which will hopefully let us snag something in a trade down.

[Solecismic]

If the Bears trade down to #4, why wouldn't they trade down again? It'll take a couple of weeks to digest the combine, plus the initial volley of free agency. They need so many pieces they could go in several directions.

I wouldn't count on any of the big four quarterbacks getting past #4 even. It's that kind of league right now.

[Bobble]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

If the Bears trade down to #4, why wouldn't they trade down again? It'll take a couple of weeks to digest the combine, plus the initial volley of free agency. They need so many pieces they could go in several directions.

I wouldn't count on any of the big four quarterbacks getting past #4 even. It's that kind of league right now.

They could but I think a lot of evaluators a saying that, besides QB, there are two real difference makers in Anderson and Carter. If you're the Bears, you traded down to get assets but still got one of the top-two players. win-win

[QuikSand]

Eric Kendricks?

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Bobble

They could but I think a lot of evaluators a saying that, besides QB, there are two real difference makers in Anderson and Carter. If you're the Bears, you traded down to get assets but still got one of the top-two players. win-win

+1 get Anderson or deal down if you can

[Bobble]

There was a guy on the Lions subreddit, Bo_77, who has done a bunch of great, knowledgeable write-ups on Lions off-season moves (position evaluations, scouting potential selections, etc.). Welp, he moved off reddit to substack here: https://motorcityfootball.substack.com/ Good info and opinions there if you want to dig a little deeper into Lions.

[albionmoonlight]

2023 NFL Mock Draft 4.0: Post-Combine Picks For First Three Rounds | The 33rd Team

Great mock for Detroit. Trade down 3 spots in first to move up 40 spots in 2nd/3rd. Still end up with a top corner.

Seems very realistic at this point.

edit--just noticed that they had them getting RB Robinson at 18. Which, I get that he's a great player. But that's not a first round need for this team at this point.

[QuikSand]

Thanks for that link... will dig in.

I'll also pimp my favorite analyst from the Pride of Detroit site, Andrew Kato:
Andrew Kato Profile and Activity - Pride Of Detroit

...he doesn't post a ton, but for some reason he resonates with me when he does post over there.

[QuikSand]

OK, fiddling with a mock draft as I have some soft time at the keyboard.

DET sits on two firsts and two seconds...just great for this sort of navel-gazing. I find myself always taking a CB with one of the firsts, and then with the second generally a best value sort of pick, usually at DT (Bresee or possibly Cancey). The WR group tends to be among the "top available" guys but I haven't really dug into anyone beyond JSN who is a bad fit for the Lions, as he mostly maps onto the super-slot role they are using St. Brown for.

I'm also frustrated by the wide variation in player rankings...it's inevitable, but feels more worrisome this year than last. On the PFN site we can get speedy Pitt DT Cancey in round three, elsewhere he's top-40. That LB Jack Campbell is all over the place across sites. I don't like gaming the site (knowing certain guys will be unreaslistically late pickups).

I have been getting a TE in round two, usually - this draft feels loaded with them.

So, starting out something like CB-DT-TE-LB has a good feel, to me.

[QuikSand]

I also have the CBs rated, for Detroit:

Gonzalez
Witherspoon
(gap)
Porter
(gap)
Smith
Forbes

[QuikSand]

Appears the cost for Ramsey was lower than we had guessed in terms of draft capital, but higher in terms of guaranteed salary. I don't love a player who is doing the opposite of "betting on himself" tbh.

[albionmoonlight]

Honestly, I would have liked grabbing Ramsey. Several of the podcasts I listen to say that his game will age well.

But I'm not losing sleep over missing out on an expensive older DB. That could end up being an albatross contract 4 games into next season if Father Time hits Ramsey wrong.

[albionmoonlight]

I still want to make a move of some sort, though. We've got all this draft capital and the veteran QB in place. Whatever window we have seems to be open now. I want to--prudently--convert some of that draft capital into a name player.

[QuikSand]

I know someone touted a cheap re-up with DT Buggs here... looks like he got a 2y deal just before the FA deadline. Incentives up to a total of $6m. Don't hate it.

[QuikSand]

Lions To Sign CB Cameron Sutton
March 13th, 2023 at 12:33pm CST by Sam Robinson
Ending last season with the NFL’s worst-ranked defense, the Lions are adding one of the top cornerbacks available. They are picking up former Steelers corner Cameron Sutton, Ian Rapoport of NFL.com tweets.

Sutton, who has spent his entire career in Pittsburgh, will head to Detroit on a three-year, $33MM deal featuring $22.5MM guaranteed. Sutton, 27, profiled as one of the top cover men available. He will be a centerpiece player for Aaron Glenn’s defense in 2023.

A former third-round pick, Sutton will do far better on his third NFL contract compared to his second. He just finished out a two-year, $9MM deal — agreed to just prior to free agency in 2021. The Steelers received quality work from Sutton last season; he was by far their most dependable corner. The seventh-year veteran will attempt to fill a void on the outside in Detroit, though Sutton also brings extensive slot experience as well. That will give Glenn options as he attempts to pick up the pieces ahead of his third season as DC.

Sutton finished in the top five in passer rating allowed as the closest defender, per Next Gen Stats, last season (among corners) and ended the year with a career-high 15 passes defensed. The Lions ranked 30th in pass defense and have not been able to rely on Bob Quinn-era draftee Jeff Okudah just yet.

[QuikSand]

PFF has graded Sutton as over 70 in overall defense and pass coverage in 3 of the last 4 years (with 2021 being his weak season).

I had thought Jamel Dean was the guy to target in this price range - a little younger, a little larger, and a little better overall. We'll see how much he gets money-wise, maybe it will turn out to be a couple clicks more than Sutton.