11-17-2014, 11:38 AM | #51 | ||
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Braves are making moves for the new park. I have to assume they didn't think Heyward would re-up long enough.
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11-17-2014, 01:34 PM | #52 |
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I LOVE the Cardinals - Braves trade, I mean really LOVE IT! Heyward is a great addition to this team!
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11-17-2014, 01:35 PM | #53 |
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I hate the deal as a Cardinals fan. Can't help but think this will be a reverse Wainwright type deal.
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11-17-2014, 01:43 PM | #54 |
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Shelby Miller is a dime a dozen type pitcher. I hate the Cardinals.
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11-17-2014, 01:46 PM | #55 |
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Shelby Miller doesn't seem all the impressive to me, to be honest. But maybe the Braves can turn him around from his sophomore slump.
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11-17-2014, 02:00 PM | #56 | |
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Miller saw his K/9 rate drop from 8.78 in 2013 to 6.25 in 2014, while his BB/9 rate rose from 2.96 to 3.59. His numbers still looked OK because his BABIP dropped from a reasonable .280 in 2013 to an extremely low .256 in 2014. If he keeps those K rates and the balls in play AVG rises back to .270-.280, his numbers won't look that great.
This reminds me a little of the Rasmus deal in regards to Miller. Everyone thought the Cards were selling too early on Rasmus and kept talking about "years of control". Well, Rasmus had a 4.0 WAR for St. Louis in 2010 and then started slipping. The Cards dealt him while he still had value and now he's making north of $7 mil a year with a WAR around 1.0. The warning signs are there for Miller too and if he has a 4.30 ERA with a 6 K/9 rate in 2015, he won't get close to the player Heyward is. If Heyward can come in and be similar to what he's done the past 3 seasons (5 WAR avg), he will be a lot more valuable than what Miller projects. As Fangraphs says: Quote:
Last edited by Arles : 11-17-2014 at 02:02 PM. |
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11-17-2014, 02:16 PM | #57 |
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If the Giants hadn't been winning all these World Series, I'd really hate the Cardinals. The franchise never seems to stumble.
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11-17-2014, 02:37 PM | #58 |
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I will miss Russell Martin, but not at 5/82
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11-17-2014, 02:40 PM | #59 |
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Isn't Martin like...well on the wrong side of 30 too?
Edit: Okay, see he's 31. Still...that's tying him up through age 36 @ like $16.5mil/yr? Yikes. Last edited by DaddyTorgo : 11-17-2014 at 02:41 PM. |
11-17-2014, 02:49 PM | #60 |
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Heyward is good enough but I don't see how 6.4 WAR passes any sort of eye test on his stats. He hit 11 homers and had a .735 ops.
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11-17-2014, 02:50 PM | #61 | |
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He's a defensive beast.
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11-17-2014, 02:51 PM | #62 |
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Oh, and even with the .735 OPS, his OPS+ was 108 (ie, 8% better than the average hitter). So not horrible.
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11-17-2014, 03:06 PM | #63 |
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11-17-2014, 03:10 PM | #64 |
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To be fair, it wasn't as if the Braves were going to contend for the division even with Heyward next season.
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11-17-2014, 04:12 PM | #65 |
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I hate the Cards for making me hate Heyward.
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11-17-2014, 05:01 PM | #66 | |
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11-17-2014, 05:02 PM | #67 |
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+1 One of my favs not on my team.
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11-17-2014, 06:40 PM | #68 |
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Why can't the Reds EVER make this kind of trade. God dammit.
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11-17-2014, 07:15 PM | #69 |
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11-17-2014, 07:35 PM | #70 |
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I don't think this is quite the slam dunk for the Cardinals. The braves willingness to trade him tells us that he's very likely going to test free agency. So there's a good chance they gave up Shelby Miller and what is now the braves top pitching prospect for a 1 year rental. That's a lot of club control surrendered for a player whose value at this point is based largely on his defense.
I personally like the trade for both teams. The Braves, from what I've read, tried and failed to get Heyward signed long term, they're not likely to be serious contenders in 2015 so they turned him into several years of club control in starting pitching. |
11-17-2014, 07:42 PM | #71 |
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Yeah, I don't think this is as perfect a deal as thought. I'm not that high on Miller but Heyward is only there for 1 year. He may be 25 but this is his last year under contract and he's going to want a mint from someone next year.
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11-17-2014, 07:47 PM | #72 |
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Braves fan and I like the deal, talk is that Jenkins performance is gonna be a better indicator of how the deal goes for the Bravos.
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11-17-2014, 08:16 PM | #73 |
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Heyward has been hyped so much that his perceived value is nowhere what he brings...which is league average offense. I think he may improve, but if you look at his last 2 seasons it won't take much. The league's worst offense just got even poorer, especially if you look at Heyward as the "productive" one and see what is left to take his place. Maybe we'll get more Schaeffer.
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11-17-2014, 08:29 PM | #74 |
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Yes, its good that it seems like the Braves are going into rebuild mode. But also meant that there was no way the Mets could have obtained him. I would have done Niese for Hayward in a heartbeat but they would have never traded him inside the division. PLUS, I hate the Cardinals. I say it a million times and I'm just so sick of them constantly having good players, constantly making smart moves, constantly winning. I'm just jealous. |
11-17-2014, 08:30 PM | #75 |
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This is what happens when the braves made the dumb decision to call him up on opening day 5 years ago vs waiting til mid may
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11-17-2014, 09:33 PM | #76 |
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Gattis, unless they deal him as well.
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11-17-2014, 10:32 PM | #77 | |
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THIS.. there is no doubt that's what Mo is thinking with this deal. |
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11-17-2014, 11:50 PM | #78 | |
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Love the Heyward trade for the Cards, even if I think ATL will turn out ok from it. Hoping the Red Sox don't sign Panda (and he re-signs with SF), but do sign Lester (or Scherzer.). Hanley's also an intriguing option as a 3B or LF depending on how much he signs for. |
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11-17-2014, 11:54 PM | #79 |
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Y'all can have your Stantons and Heywards, we just signed Jeff Francouer baby~! Suck it.
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11-17-2014, 11:58 PM | #80 |
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On the J-Hey trade, reality is that it really doesn't matter a whole lot in the grand scheme of things for Atlanta.
They went nowhere with him, they'll go nowhere without him, they'll just do it more cheaply (now there's a shock) and quite possibly with noticeably worse defense.
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11-18-2014, 09:01 AM | #81 | |
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And top of the league (or close to it) defense. He's a 5 WAR a season player and he just turned 25. He was the Braves' best position player.
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11-18-2014, 09:03 AM | #82 | |
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Well, you are probably right here, though that doesn't exactly bode well . The Hart years don't appear to be any better than the Wren years so far.
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11-18-2014, 10:04 AM | #83 | |
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If I were to predict what happens, I would say that Heyward hits .270 with 20 HR and 20 SB - leads off and plays very good defense (5-6 WAR). The Cards work out an extension that is in the 9-180 mil range and he stays. Walden slides into the setup role Neshek had last year and puts up solid numbers for the next 2-3 years in that role. Miller has an OK season with a 4.20ish ERA and 6-7 K/9. Not bad for his cheap contract. In the offseason, he hits arbitration and gets $6 mil (still not a bad price). Jenkins hits AA for the Braves and looks good - he comes up in 2016 and works his way into being a #3 starter. All in all, I see this being a win for both teams. |
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11-18-2014, 10:12 AM | #84 |
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IF Heyward ever figures out how to hit lefties even slightly below average, the trade will be horrible. If he continues at a slightly better offensive version of his current self (110-115 OPS+) then the trade will likely end up a wash.
It depends on if they can move Otis Upton or if they have to play him in right because they can't pick up a dead body for cheap. |
11-18-2014, 10:18 AM | #85 | |
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Here's some additional information on why extending Heyward looks more like a legit option:
DeWitt expects 'significant' rise in payroll in coming years : Sports Quote:
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11-18-2014, 10:33 AM | #86 | |
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Didn't I see a quote somewhere about the Cards believing it was leadoff that hurt his power numbers, with the implication being they planned to use him down in the order?
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11-18-2014, 10:41 AM | #87 | |
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You are much too pessimistic. Good players that go to the Cardinals tend to turn into great players, no? .300 with 35 HR is more along the lines of what I expect. 8-9 WAR. I don't like it, but it's the way things go |
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11-18-2014, 10:48 AM | #88 | |
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Heyward shouldn't leadoff though.. Wong should. |
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11-18-2014, 10:59 AM | #89 |
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A player with an OBP of under .300 should leadoff? That's not the correct answer.
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11-18-2014, 11:05 AM | #90 |
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Looking at the lineup for the 2014 Cards, Matt Carpenter (with his .375 OBP) led off 156 times last year. Carpenter should continue to be the Cardinals leadoff hitter. Jay and Heyward should split time between 2nd and 6th/7th (depending if Molina gets his power back next season) in the batting order. Wong should bat 8th.
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"A prayer for the wild at heart, kept in cages" -Tennessee Williams Last edited by ISiddiqui : 11-18-2014 at 11:05 AM. |
11-18-2014, 11:28 AM | #91 |
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I love it when they say that leading off affects power numbers, as if a guy leads off more than once a game(or at most twice) and anyways like that would infer he's intentionally not trying to hit homers or doubles every trip to the plate.
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11-18-2014, 12:10 PM | #92 | |
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Until this past season though, in Heyward's case, there did seem to be some evidence of it. I think, mentally, he's been a different hitter at various spots in the order. He appears more comfortable at the plate hitting 6-7, although as uninspiring as he is hitting leadoff, he's even worse at #2. I'll be honest: I'm not thrilled with the return they got for him but I haven't seen a whole lot of people in Braves Country particularly upset by his departure either. His defense will be missed, his offense, eh, not so much.
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11-18-2014, 12:28 PM | #93 | |
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11-18-2014, 01:04 PM | #94 |
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The Cards have said they want to put Carpenter in more of an RBI spot given his .390 OBP with men in scoring position last year. I'm thinking Heyward leads off, Jay hits second and Carp hits 3rd.
I also wouldn't be surprised to see Bourjos moved for a pitcher given the addition of Heyward and Piscotty's/Grichuk's development. Last edited by Arles : 11-18-2014 at 01:08 PM. |
11-18-2014, 02:48 PM | #95 |
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11-18-2014, 02:49 PM | #96 |
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Also given Heyward is under team control only one more season, Miller 5 and Jenkins 7+, it was a pretty slick move by Atlanta
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11-18-2014, 04:16 PM | #97 |
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Miller is only 3-4 I think. He's due for arbitration (prob around $6 mil) next offseason.
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11-18-2014, 05:36 PM | #98 |
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11-18-2014, 10:00 PM | #99 |
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433 Plate appearances last season is plenty sample size.
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11-19-2014, 07:59 AM | #100 |
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We will agree to disagree then. I like speed up top.. Kolten wasn't very good the first half of the season, but he came on late and should only get better. Of course Cardinal baseball nowadays is to wait for the HR. Last edited by MizzouRah : 11-19-2014 at 08:00 AM. |
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