WW CXXXV-Dragonball Z - Saiyans Win

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Goku, we shall not fail you. Rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr. My muskles are HUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUGE. I am a warrior. a warrior of Z! and I taste like Vanilla! Me check in for battle! RRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRROOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWJAFHJKNASLKVNASLKNSKLJAGNLKASJRTAE

I don't really know anything about Dragonball Z or what this means, but if it's your way of saying your a villager checking in the same for me.

[Narcizo]

I don't want to be accused of "steering the conversation" but, really, what choice do I have?

Sooooooo, if we can and do "no lynch" today then and the seer survives the night (all things being equal he has a 7/8 chance of doing so). Then he gets a scan (hopefully he doesn't pick the person who gets killed). If he hits a baddy (it sounds like he can only scan good or evil, not wolf/non-wolf) he reveals. If not he'll probably have to hold on for another night and then almost certainly reveal no matter what, unless he has no helpful scans at all.

And, puh-lease, no "you don't want to kill me" posts. If you think you're in danger of being lynched and you're the seer then try to argue your way out and only reveal if you have useful information to give that you don't think can be interpreted from your posts. As soon as you say you're the seer then you're dead in the night. If you're vanilla then suck it up and take the lynch.

[Narcizo]

So mckerney, Crimson and Niccus. Thoughts on whether it's worth considering no lynch today?

[Narcizo]

Oh, sorry Niccus by the way. Nice to see you here - hope you have fun.

[Narcizo]

As to why we're probably going to have to vote no lynch at some stage - well, I think I detailed it before - should we get to 3:1 then we let the wolf narrow the field down for us before having to choose. Only problem is the sorceror kind of clouds the situation if he's still around. Anyway, I believe there's a study somewhere that even number player games is tougher on the village than a game with one less villager. By no lynch and taking a villager out on night one that will simulate this - it will basically be a 9-player game except there's the risk that the wolves get lucky and hit the seer or hunter with the kill. On the plus side we have full reveals and the seer won't have a completely random no-hit n0 scan, he'll get to pick someone and could hit a baddy.

[Niccus]

Yup, new to werewolf games but glad to be trying it out, really unsure right now if a no lynch or a lynch would be a good call as of now.

[Narcizo]

Yeah, it's an unusual situation. In 95% of games suggesting no lynch on day one is a lynchable offence because it almost exclusively helps the wolves, due to it giving them a free kill without the village gaining any information. That reasoning is still valid to some degree in this game, and the need for information is the only thing that's stopping me change my vote. Looks like I've missed DV though so there's no pressure to be gained there till I go to bed.

Unvote DV

[CrimsonFox]

rrrrrr rrrrRRRRRRRRRRRRR rRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR
ME START RUN ON DV THEN! *facekick to DV!*

VOTE DV

[Narcizo]

Thanks for the input Crimson

Mckerney?

[CrimsonFox]

Me jump through air with greatest of eeeze. Fistshot to Narcizo-face.

[Narcizo]

Vote Mckerney

Post something man! Small game - lot of reliance on gut reads. Gut reads hard to make if people don't post. Smells like you might be waiting for your wolfy friend before deciding what to say.

[Narcizo]

By the way I presume this here Dragonball is nothing to do with a formal dance for mythological creatures. To be honest I think that might be cooler.

[CrimsonFox]

*kicks Narcizo in the Dragonballs*

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Vote Mckerney

Post something man! Small game - lot of reliance on gut reads. Gut reads hard to make if people don't post. Smells like you might be waiting for your wolfy friend before deciding what to say.

Definitely not waiting for anyone, was in thread on my desktop while playing games on lappy, desktop keyboard too far away for typy.

I certainly see the reasoning behind a no lynch today, though still completely on board with it yet. With the odds strongly favoring us lynching a villager there's a part of me that wants us to take the safer move and end up only losing one villager tomorrow.

But the odds are also strongly in favor of the seer not finding anyone tonight. If he does without us lynching a villager we'll obviously be in great shape, but if he doesn't we really we could be in bad shape and easily end up being down three villagers, something I really want to avoid. The issue of the cultist being listed in the evil roles, it seems there would be a chance that he shows up as a villain in the cultists scans. Trading the seer for the cultist would be problematic in a 10 player game.

A no lynch vote is something I'm considering right now, but I'm still not really sure if I want to go that route.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by mckerney

With the odds strongly favoring us lynching a villager there's a part of me that wants us to take the safer move and end up only losing one villager tomorrow.

But the odds are also strongly in favor of the seer not finding anyone tonight. If he does without us lynching a villager we'll obviously be in great shape, but if he doesn't we really we could be in bad shape and easily end up being down three villagers, something I really want to avoid.

Even if the seer only finds a good then that can be a lot of information. Say we no lynch so there's 6-3 after a night kill. If the seer hasn't scanned the hunter then we could narrow it down to 3 vanillas vs 3 baddies if seer and hunter revealed. Not sure that that's best but it's a thought.

Of course if we do lynch and it doesn't land the seer in it then we could be 2 vanillas vs 3 baddies, which is even better but we have to weigh that up against the added risk of losing the seer. There's also the
~30% chance of actually lynching a baddy or causing a baddy to break cover to save his buddy which I haven't mentioned before.

So, umm, yeah. It isn't immediately obvious which is best. If we do get to 3:1 there's very little chance that there's going to be more information forthcoming at that stage so it might be best to hold on till that point and then let the wolf have a free kill. In retrospect I'm probably leaning away from a no lynch again at this stage. Couple more hours and then I'll probably be back there again.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

*kicks Narcizo in the Dragonballs*

*pointedly ignore Crimson, in case he hasn't noticed it already*

[Chubby]

vanilla z warrior here.

narc - why no vote this game and not last small game?

[PackerFanatic]

Originally Posted by Chubby

vanilla z warrior here.

narc - why no vote this game and not last small game?

Probably because of the fact that no one, including the wolfs, knew what was killed, lynch and NK alike. Plus we were at 9 to start, not 10.

Checking in, btw

[PackerFanatic]

Even in a small game where we might be at a disadvantage in the beginning, I don't like the idea of a no lynch. I just feel that in the long run, it's more useful to have more voting history than give up a whole day just to potentially save one person, when it could help win the game in the end to have that history.

[Autumn]

Checking in. I usually think no lynch is a horrible idea, stealing a day of vote history. But in such a small game, Narcizo's right that a seer scan can really turn the tide. If we could be 100% sure the seer won't get lynched I'd say maybe not. But I'm remembering Harvey Dent getting lynched in the Dark Knight game despite revealing because not a lot of people were on at deadline. Not to mention if the seer is forced to reveal they're not going to get a scan in. Do we want to take two shots at possibly losing the seer tonight, in a game with a 2/9 chance tonight of the Seer finding a wolf?

Normally every day we don't lynch is another day the wolves are safe. But in a game with so few players, every chance the seer has to make another scan is worth a lot. So I'll stick my foot out there.

VOTE NO LYNCH

[JAG]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

*kicks Narcizo in the Dragonballs*

Shouldn't that be ballZ?

Will have the speculation thread up later this morning. Good luck to those playing.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

Probably because of the fact that no one, including the wolfs, knew what was killed, lynch and NK alike. Plus we were at 9 to start, not 10.

Yeah, that and the fact that I was, you know, a baddy last game - so even if I thought of it and thought it was a good village move I wouldn't have brought it up.

I'm a bit surprised that Autumn thinks no lynch is a good idea. I was kind of moving away from the idea myself because of the relatively high probability of lynching a bad guy in a lynch today, and the liklihood that the sorceror will be able to muddy the waters of a seer reveal anyway. And it seems a bit counter-productive voting no lynch immediately instead of, at least, making the semblance of having a lynch to try and get as much information as possible for the time being. But I don't want to have a knee-jerk reaction and think that because Autumn is adopting the idea I posited that I'm not sure is good he must automatically be the sorceror. Even if that is my immediate reaction.

OK I'm going to try and think things through:

No Lynch
+ 50%? less chance of seer dying before he can get a scan in. A scan of any living, non-hunter player can really narrow the field down.

Lynch
+ Better chance of lynching or exposing a bad guy than there is of lynching/exposing the seer.
+ Gather information. If we have to no lynch then it's better towards the end of the game when there's no point "gathering" information because it's do or die
+ Doesn't put all the pressure on the seer to succede in the game. Village almost succeded last game without any help from the seer. There's also the fact that the sorceror will interfere with any seer reveal anyway.

Hmmm. I really can't see how no lynch is good. Sorry about mentioning it.

[Narcizo]

Zinto: Does the sorceror know who the wolves are? Do the wolves know who the sorceror is?

[PackerFanatic]

At one point, the description of that role said he knew them, but they didn't know him. But I don't see that anymore, so I could be wrong.

[PackerFanatic]

No bhlloy or spleen to vote for day 1? Disappointing...

[Autumn]

I almost wrote up my standard "No way" response to no lynch. But after having just run a small game (though one this wouldn't have worked in), I am looking at it differently. In a game with no bodyguard, any time the seer reveals, they're gone. So there are two possibilities of losing the seer on day 1 (lynch or night kill) and more if we have a close vote and one of the contestants feels they have to reveal. No lynch means only a 1/8 chance of losing the seer on the first day. So a no lynch gives us a very good chance of getting one scan in. Then we take our chances tomorrow - if the seer is forced to reveal we at least get one scan out of it. If the seer is forced today we get absolutely nothing.

[mauchow]

Checking in! I'll be in conference until 3 and then I'll be on the road after that which I will be able to talk more from phone.

The idea of no Lynch is intriguing. Narcizo argued w himself and changed his mind.

Oh and I've never watched this show ..ever. rrrrrrroorrrr. Z! OK I have no idea how it goes.

[Autumn]

Given how much we love close votes as a village, this is making more and more sense to me. If we have a close two way vote, or even a three way, which I think happened last game, we have what a 2/10 or 3/10 chance of having the seer in the vote and forced to reveal. I'd rather wait 'til tomorrow for that. I guess that's why the ruleset I just ran had the night zero scans. Losing the seer today is a total waste.

[Autumn]

It's always good to do a concurrent fake vote though. So while I'm thinking no lynch is a good idea, if I were to really vote right now I think I would go with PackerfFanatic, as someone who had a long run last game, but isn't Darth (who already has plenty of votes).

[Autumn]

And last, to respond to Narcizo before I get back to work - I don't think the sorceror would be fond of the no lynch plan. Number one, getting himself lynched is a win for the sorceror, as is forcing any roles to reveal. Number two, the sorceror desperately needs to know who the wolves are, if they don't know (which it seems they don't), and voting is the best way for them to try to figure that out. If I was the sorceror I'd be voting early and often, trying to flush out some information.

[Danny]

Hoops and Lathum are the wolves

[Autumn]

Their silence damns them.

[Narcizo]

Darth has one vote Autumn.

You keep on mentioning that the seer will be forced to reveal if there's a three-way tie today or something. Umm... no he won't. He'll be forced to sit it out and hope that the dice don't fall his way. There's absolutely no point him revealing today no matter what the vote is. So there's a 1/10 chance of us killing the seer today, followed by a 1/9 chance of the wolves killing him (all other things being equal with hints and reads and whatnot). So there's a 19/90 chance of the seer being killed today if we lynch - compared to a 1/10 chance of him being killed if it's a no lynch.

There's a 3/10 chance of lynching a baddy or forcing a wolf into taking action to protect his wolfmate. What's that 27/90 chance of getting a baddy, or getting decent information in the process. Granted a seer is worth more than the sorceror but a wolf in hand is worth two in the bushes. Or something.

I'm not really sure how you voting for all and sundry would signal to them and not to us that you're the sorceror, Autumn.

[Narcizo]

When I say "keep on" I mean you've mentioned it once or, maybe, twice. Natch.

One more Zinto

Zinto: Does the seer view the sorceror as bad or good?

[The Jackal]

Just caught up with the thread, have to think about the no lynch route. I'm usually a proponent of vote history but a seer reveal of 2-3 people is huge in such a small game.

Narc, looking at the stats you just posted, wouldn't the chance of the wolves killing the seer be better than 1/9? I think it'd be 1/7, since they'd know not to kill themselves.

[The Jackal]

Just curious how that changes your ratio, it would make it 1/7 if we lynch, and 1/8 if we don't lynch.

[Autumn]

Oh, you're right on Darth. I glanced at my vote history and saw Darth's name three times, not realizing one was your unvote, Narc.

I think it will be surprising if we have a seer on the block and they don't reveal. If the vote was so close they couldn't tell if they were going to be killed, sure, I guess hold off and hope. But if theyr'e certain to be killed, they would reveal in hopes of catching a wolf. There's also the hope that the wolves may not be around at deadline and miss out on killing them. Better to take that chance than simply be lynched. But I suppose you're right that without a bodyguard there's less reason to bother revealing in a close race.

And my point about the sorceror was not about signalling, I don't think there's any point to the sorceror trying to signal to the wolves. The point is for the sorceror to try to get a good guess who the wolves are so that he doesn't harm them. Sitting back and having a day zero, basically, isn't helping the sorceror guess who the wolves are. Like the village, he's trying to guess through their voting behavior who is who.

[Autumn]

Yes, Jackal, there's a 1/10 chance of us lynching the seer, if the seer isn't going to reveal to save himself (which seems a poor idea). There's a 1/7 chance that the wolves then kill the seer, if the seer isn't lynched. So we have a 17/70 chance, or 24% of the seer dying one way or the other today if we lynch.

If we don't lynch it would be a 1/8 shot that the wolves get the seer. That's a 12.5% chance.

If we lynch, we have a 2/10 or 20% chance of catching a wolf (assumign randomness, which of course it is not, with the wolves voting especially). So it's 20% wolf, 10% seer, with an additional 14% chance the wolves kill the seer at night if we lynch.

If we don't lynch, it's straight up 12.5% that the seer dies, with a 22% chance that the seer hits a wolf tonight.

I don't know what this all tells us, I'm usually not the statistics geek here. I just hate to lose the seer without any scans in. Perfect game would be seer gets two scans in and reveals. Wolves require 8 deaths to win, so at least four days. Can we afford a day zero where we lose a villager but give our seer a good chance at a scan?

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Zinto: Does the sorceror know who the wolves are? Do the wolves know who the sorceror is?

No neither know each others identity.

[Autumn]

Assuming the seer lives today, tomorrow there's a 1/8 chance the seer gets lynched, or if not a 2/7 chance they get night killed (assuming the wolves are both still alive). so a 41% chance that the seer dies day two if they live through day one and we lynch.

[Narcizo]

I shall continue to argue with myself.

Ah-ha. But if we don't lynch today, tomorrow we have a 33% chance of lynching a baddy (6:3) even without the seer infomation. Worst case scenario on day three we have a 3/7 (42%?) chance of lynching a baddy. Miss again and we have definitely lost.

If we lynch today we have a 30% chance, tomorrow if we miss we have a 3/8 (36%) chance and the next day if we miss, we're in all sorts of trouble and we can reasonably expect to lose although there's a chance I guess.

Either way we probably only have two shots at a lynching unless we hit someone, although there's a very slim chance of the village winning if they're 3:2+1, I guess.

So, yeah, like I was saying. No lynch is probably the best bet in these circumstances.

[Autumn]

Wait, not sure why I put 2/7. that'st he chance of the scan I think. It should be a 1/5 chance the seer gets night killed I think night two, if only villagers have died. So that's a total chance of 32.5% for the second day.

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Zinto: Does the seer view the sorceror as bad or good?

The sorcerer is scanned as good.

[Narcizo]

And yes. Maths was never my strong suit. Jackal is right about the night kills, of course. Unless the wolves are kind and kill one of their own.

[Autumn]

If we don't lynch today, there's a 1/9 chance the seer is lynched tomorrow, a 1/6 chance they're night killed if they're not lynched. So that's a 28% chance. Not much better for tomorrow, but if they're lynched they at least can reveal one scan.

[Narcizo]

We need Chief Rum to crunch the numbers.

[Autumn]

One scan can be huge in a game this small, so my gut says it's worth it to take the no lynch and hope for a lucky night. Now that I've finished calculating though I'll have to look at those numbers and see if they guide us.

[Autumn]

Yeah, I totally don't play this way, but I'm actually taking a statistics course right now, so the probability is interesting me.

Day 1 Lynch: 24% we lose the seer somehow, 20% we catch a wolf, 19% chance seer finds a wolf, 57% chance he scans a villager (taking into account the possibility of the seer dying).

Day 1 No lynch 12.5% we lose the seer, 0% we catch a wolf, 19.25% seer catches a wolf, 68% seer scans a villager.

So it's interesting that not lynching doesn't increase our chance of scanning a wolf, though it does increase our chance of scanning a villager. Obviously we would have to do this cumulatively for a couple days to give a real cost benefit, and I don't think I want to take this that far.

[The Jackal]

Feel free to analyze my math, I could be doing something wrong.

D1/N1 w/lynch : 10% seer lynch, 14.3% seer NK, 85.7% chance of scan
D2/N2 : 12.5% seer lynch, 20% seer NK, 80% chance of scan

D1/N1 wo/lynch : 0% seer lynch, 12.5% seer NK, 87.5% chance of scan
D2/N2 : 11.1% seer lynch, 16.7% seer NK, 83.3% chance of scan

[Autumn]

So I know it would be a huge boon to scanning a wolf on day two if we don't lynch. but then again if we lynch today we have a 39% chance of catching a wolf one way or the other, versus 19% if we don't lynch. Hard call.