2019 Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown

[QuikSand]

...oh, and for the record, I didn't cash a ticket all day. I had a few near misses on the undercard, but was all-exotics and had a consistent knack of using the "surprise second finisher" in only my third or fourth slots, and that sort of thing. Racing guys are prone to talking a big game after a big race or big day, we tend to not be so hot on revealing our massive thuds. My day was a massive thud.

[JPhillips]

The Kentuky Derby decision was not a good one. It was a rough and tumble race on a wet and sloppy track, actually, a beautiful thing to watch. Only in these days of political correctness could such an overturn occur. The best horse did NOT win the Kentucky Derby - not even close!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 5, 2019

You can bet that if it was a black horse...

[Lathum]

He spelled Kentucky wrong. Jeez.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

I think it was a mix of both, but he has the lowest approval rating of any governor in the US right now. So, a lot of the former. But I also think it's booing by the people who had been holding winning tickets just a few minutes earlier. That's something I would expect would happen here too. The other part of this is that this is in Louisville, which is one of the only bastions of liberals (along with Lexington) in the entire state. Bevin has pulled so much shit against people in that town, he is lucky they even let him come in the city.

On my phone's smaller screen, the picture on this Tweet looked like someone had gone in and put blotches over everuone's face but Bevin's.

When I looked closer, it was actually all of the silly hats and getups blocking faces.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Lathum

He spelled Kentucky wrong. Jeez.

To be fair, he spelled it correctly lower down in the tweet. I'm willing to give him the typo nod on that one.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

To be fair, he spelled it correctly lower down in the tweet. I'm willing to give him the typo nod on that one.

It's really too much to expect the President of the United States of America to proof read a tweet before he hits post, isn't it?



Because, I mean, what are we going to expect from our kids or future leaders if this is the standard that we are comfortable with? It's never really ok, unless you're going to go all Barkley and say "I am not a role model."

[digamma]

Pat Forde had a nice dig based on the tweet in an article today, "No Collision, but Obstruction in Kentucky Derby."

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

It's really too much to expect the President of the United States of America to proof read a tweet before he hits post, isn't it?



Because, I mean, what are we going to expect from our kids or future leaders if this is the standard that we are comfortable with? It's never really ok, unless you're going to go all Barkley and say "I am not a role model."

Oh yea it's definitely an unforgivable error on his part, just not one of poor spelling (stupdiity, ignorance) as Lathum was hinting at, but more about carelessness, as you have pointed out.

Putting aside whether or not a President should be proofreading his tweets for posterity's sake (at least), I'm still stubbornly anti the concept that the man is tweeting at all. Or at least in the manner he is, as opposed to the more PR-sensitive and sensible (and less prolific) manner employed by Obama during his terms.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Typo aside, that tweet was probably crazy like a fox.

The sentiment in it was exactly in line with every single FB post I saw in my feed yesterday (give or take a dozen posts, plus several dozen comments that went with those).

That was Grade A playing to the base stuff.

[cartman]

Trump once almost killed a racehorse named D.J. Trump

[digamma]

DRF is reporting Country House is sick and out of the Preakness.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by digamma

DRF is reporting Country House is sick and out of the Preakness.

What a disaster of a year it has been for the sport

[digamma]

And now Maximum Security's jockey has been suspended for 15 days for his ride during the Derby. For those who follow the sport more closely, is this standard? From my layman's view, it seemed like the horse jerked/swerved and he had to right the ship? What's the right answer here?

[QuikSand]

Penalties on the rider are less consistent than on the horse for purposes of the instant race. The horse clearly was hard to control, but there is an argument that it is the rider's responsibility to do it regardless.

This is less clear, overall. The horse definitely should have been taken down for the race, IMO. Whether the jock should be suspended, honestly it didn't even occur to me that might be in play.

[QuikSand]

...when evaluating these matters (jockey accountability), the fact that MS swerved into a horse that was actively advancing on him (WoW) is considered an aggravating factor. The swerve right at the moment the other horse was at least trying to pass him is material.

[QuikSand]

Well, whatever value BOURBON WAR posed in this field has been sucked up by a betting public that either drunkenly is in for the horse with the booze name, or perhaps wisely seeing that the pace setup favors an off-the-pace type. I was planning to use him, still am, but my main value horse here is 8 SIGNALMAN, whom I believe is solid, rested, sharp, and ready to pay off. Get him in the top tier with any of the logicals and I'm all set.

[QuikSand]

Well, after I had made pretty much all my bets, I went through a common exercise (for me) in building one last "saving" ticket - basically if some of my theory of the race was right, but some specifics were off. Ended up putting in a $1 exacta with 1-2-8 over 8 horses, leaving out the 4 completely, for a $21 ticket. I mostly wanted to sneak in a ticket with WIN WIN WIN and the rest of the "well maybe" ones I hadn't been using. Turned out my afterthought of rolling in EVERFAST and ANOTHERTWISTAFATE was the big non-decision of the day for me. The $1 exacta paid nearly $500... go figure.

Liked WAR OF WILL a lot for the Derby, didn't really use him a ton today, but ended up ahead entirely on that one afterthought wager. So it goes, can't take much credit, but I'm still cashing the ticket up a couple Cs for the day. *shurg*

[TCY Junkie]

After the luck 1 had in derby I wasn't going to bet the Preakness, didn't trust him not to beat me. Well I did make one bet for today yesterday after looking at replays of the graded entries. Did 20 to win on 3 and 10 dollar double 3 with 1. Lost by a dang neck. Was 12 to ml , I thought he should have been around 5/2. Went off 5 to 1.

[TCY Junkie]

Nice hit. When they were Loading I was thinking about how Romans has done pretty good Preakness weekend.

[QuikSand]

Belmont field is varied and interesting, more so than usual. WAR OF WILL comes off a Preakness win but is only second choice to TACITUS, who apparently is just shelving all the presumed support for his Tapit bloodline and trainer connection.

I liked Tacitus a bit for the Derby, predicted this path for him (solid Derby run, 5 week layoff, serious Belmont player) and now might not be able to get any value for him. Other than the cred for calling it weeks in advance, both here but also on a podcast. So I'd have that going for me, which is nice.

[QuikSand]

As always, the Belmont Stakes, despite its length, is subject to being "stolen" on the front end by a seemingly overmatched horse who just gets a too-early lead. JOEVIA at 30-1 does not fit the profile of a serious stayer, but he certainly has the capacity to get the lead here. Pace is not likely to be very contested... I think I'd send SPINOFF toward the front if I were his connections, but past that I think it would be a stretch for most of the field to really push early. (Maybe TAX? Maybe WAR OF WILL?)

JOEVIA with SPINOFF a length back and then two more back to a big bunch seems the natural setup here, not bad for the front two. I will likely use SPINOFF in some bets.

[QuikSand]

If you like WAR OF WILL you might get a surprisingly good price, maybe 7-2 or better, if early betting is an indication. His probable payouts in the two day daily double ate around twice those for TACITUS.

[Arles]

I may gamble a bit on Tax (15/1),Everfast (12/1) or Sir Winston (12/1) to figure in the top 2. Seems like a good race to box Tacitus with 3-4 long shots in an Exacta Box.

[TCY Junkie]

Originally Posted by Arles

I may gamble a bit on Tax (15/1),Everfast (12/1) or Sir Winston (12/1) to figure in the top 2. Seems like a good race to box Tacitus with 3-4 long shots in an Exacta Box.

Good call

[QuikSand]

Hope you hit it

I used 7 underneath but not on top

[Lathum]

Santa Anita won't close despite 2 deaths in 2 days

This is such a bad look for the track and anyone who continues to go there is complicit in whatever is causing this.

[PilotMan]

Well here's some pretty big horse racing news to break today:


More than 2 dozen horse racing professionals charged in drug scheme

More than two dozen people, including the trainer of champion Maximum Security, have been charged in what authorities described Monday as a widespread international scheme to drug horses to make them race faster.
Trainer Jason Servis, whose stable includes the 3-year-old champion, was charged with administering performance-enhancing drugs to that horse and others. Maximum Security crossed the finish line first at the 2019 Kentucky Derby before being disqualified for interference and has since won four of his five high-profile races.

[Thomkal]

So don't know much about the horse racing industy, but this looks like a pretty big dagger to the chest from the outside. How likely is the industry to suffer from this? To the point of ending it?

[QuikSand]

The specter of banned substances has been around for a long time, in and out of the sport, with various trainers and operations suffering bans and penalties - sometimes heavy ones. Too soon to say whether this is "the big one" but bigger name trainers have gotten caught up in similar stuff, without jeopardizing the sport. So... not easy to say this is "it."

With piles of dead horses at Santa Anita, a messy DQ in the highest profile American race of the last year, and now this... an already dying industry might be feeling like it's just all conspiring against them.

[Thomkal]

Thanks Quik