Sports betting?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Butter

Twins ML -147

O's / Yankees F5 O4.5, -125

We're riding the Twins horse until it breaks down or until others jump on the bandwagon and drive their lines to an unprofitable point. Not blindly, but when it makes sense.

I guess this one didn't work out. As an Angels fan, I got annoyed they were being discounted vs the Twins, and I put in a heavy Angels DK lineup (small buy in; I ain't a dummy lol). That one won me a little at least.

Yanks-Os PPD

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Lathum

My over bet in the Yankee game will be voided as they scratched the starter.

I saw this was PPD. What happens with your parlay if one of the games is PPD.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I saw this was PPD. What happens with your parlay if one of the games is PPD.

Typically it becomes a single bet so I’ll cash it for Seattle.

[Lathum]

Just got home-

got the NO SCORe in the first inning of the Indians game and the under 8

YES score in the Yankees game

Warriors -7.5

PArlay- under Mets/ NAts with Over Cards/ Braves

Then I went nuts

Parlay- all ML winners- Reds/Phils/Rangers/Braves

Parlay- Reds/Cubs +9.5/ PAdres/Dodgers -7/ TB ML/ Dbacks

I also have an 8 teamer that will never hit

[Lathum]

A decent day just went to a great day with the Bucks miracle cover. HAd it parlayed with the over 5.5 in the Sharks- Blues game

[Lathum]

Yankees team total over 5.5 was the easiest bet I’ve made all year. Wanted to bet more and betstars limited my action. Rolled some of that over to Astros over 5.5 team total. They are up 5-0. Runner on third no outs. Line out then a double play. They don’t score again. So gross .

[Butter]

The Rise and Fall of the Professional Sports Bettor - The Ringer

Interesting article.

[Lathum]

I’m
Still plugging along. Nats team total over 5.5 and Dodgers over 5.

[RainMaker]

Sports betting was just legalized here in Illinois.

[Lathum]

Need the Dodgers team total over 5 for a nice parlay, so naturally they have 2 runs through 5 innings against a rookie making his second start

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Sports betting was just legalized here in Illinois.

Been pretty big news in the gambling world, although it is shitty how they froze out Draftkings and Fandual. There will likely be books all around Wrigleyville and even in Wrigley.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Butter

The Rise and Fall of the Professional Sports Bettor - The Ringer

Interesting article.

I thought that books made their money on the vig. So that a book doesn't really care if a sharp is winning because they will always have someone on the other end of that bet losing and then they keep the vig.

I am assuming it is more complicated than that. What am I missing?

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Been pretty big news in the gambling world, although it is shitty how they froze out Draftkings and Fandual. There will likely be books all around Wrigleyville and even in Wrigley.

I think they can team up with existing casinos to run the online platform for them. The reasoning behind freezing out DK and FD for 18 months is a sort of punishment for them jumping into the state illegally. Give the businesses that did it properly and have invested for years the first crack.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I thought that books made their money on the vig. So that a book doesn't really care if a sharp is winning because they will always have someone on the other end of that bet losing and then they keep the vig.

I am assuming it is more complicated than that. What am I missing?

In a perfect world you would be correct. Bookmakers set a number based on where they think they will get the most two way action. If they were to get equal exposure they would make money off the vig. It is obviously close enough most of the time they make money. Its been something like 50ish straight months vegas books have won.

The single biggest advantage a player has over the bookmakers is the bookmaker has to put a line on all the games, the bettor doesn't have to bet every game. Where the sharps come in to play is they look for bad lines then exploit them. It is actually a pretty common practice for offshore books to actually use a sharp player to set a line. What they will do is when a sharp player makes a bet, they reject it, then reset the line before allowing the bet. In addition to sharps identifying bad lines, they also tend to bet more, leaving a lot of exposure to one side for the book. If a sharp spots a bad line on a Pirates-Reds game and makes a 5K bet on it, there aren't nearly enough smaller bets the book can take to get 2 way exposure.

Does that make sense?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I think they can team up with existing casinos to run the online platform for them. The reasoning behind freezing out DK and FD for 18 months is a sort of punishment for them jumping into the state illegally. Give the businesses that did it properly and have invested for years the first crack.

The bottom line is rivers casino dumped a ton of money into greasing the wheels to freeze them out.

They can partner, but can not have it be their brand.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Lathum

In a perfect world you would be correct. Bookmakers set a number based on where they think they will get the most two way action. If they were to get equal exposure they would make money off the vig. It is obviously close enough most of the time they make money. Its been something like 50ish straight months vegas books have won.

The single biggest advantage a player has over the bookmakers is the bookmaker has to put a line on all the games, the bettor doesn't have to bet every game. Where the sharps come in to play is they look for bad lines then exploit them. It is actually a pretty common practice for offshore books to actually use a sharp player to set a line. What they will do is when a sharp player makes a bet, they reject it, then reset the line before allowing the bet. In addition to sharps identifying bad lines, they also tend to bet more, leaving a lot of exposure to one side for the book. If a sharp spots a bad line on a Pirates-Reds game and makes a 5K bet on it, there aren't nearly enough smaller bets the book can take to get 2 way exposure.

Does that make sense?

It does. Thanks!

[Lathum]

Took Giants team total over 3- Mets bullpen is horrible and wheeler gives up the long ball.

Rays team total over 5. Would have preferred 4.5, but Norris is awful and the bullpen worse.

[Lathum]

Betting baseball is absolutely maddening. Have the Rays team total over 5. They have 11 hits in 6 innings and three runs.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Betting baseball is absolutely maddening. Have the Rays team total over 5. They have 11 hits in 6 innings and three runs.

I would have made the Rays bet with more ease than the Giants one. Citi Field is a tough place to get offense out of a bad offense.

But I agree that the Rays seemed like they would be in a great spot vs. Norris.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I would have made the Rays bet with more ease than the Giants one. Citi Field is a tough place to get offense out of a bad offense.

But I agree that the Rays seemed like they would be in a great spot vs. Norris.

Wheeler can give up some long balls and the Mets bullpen is a dumpster fire.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Wheeler can give up some long balls and the Mets bullpen is a dumpster fire.

True, but the team opposing Wheeler needs to be able to hit HRs, too, hehe.

[Lathum]

Got Koepka at 9-1 for a decent sized wager and it seems he will come up just short. Woodland playing way too good.

[Lathum]

and as I say that Koepka bogeys.

Grrr

[NobodyHere]

He still has a chance

[Lathum]

created this group if anyone is interested

https://www.facebook.com/groups/436385843610489/about/

[Lathum]

Considering taking a shot at the Indians at 8-1 to win the central. I think the Twins may have peaked early. Twins are 7.5 games back . Their next 25 are against Det, KC, Balt, and Toronto with a series against the Twins in there. They could conceivably only be a couple back by then. Plus they may get Kluber and Carrasco back at some point.

Thoughts?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Considering taking a shot at the Indians at 8-1 to win the central. I think the Twins may have peaked early. Twins are 7.5 games back . Their next 25 are against Det, KC, Balt, and Toronto with a series against the Twins in there. They could conceivably only be a couple back by then. Plus they may get Kluber and Carrasco back at some point.

Thoughts?

7.5 games is a big ask, but I can see it happening. The Cleveland offense seems to be getting better, especially if Ramirez starts to return to normal (although as constituted, that offense is not ever going to be good). I wouldn't put much weight on Kluber or Carrasco though. Carrasco has some weird blood disease and Kluber is out until.September. But if Bauer gets back.to form (he's close) and Clevenger finally comea back (he should be back this week), you have a solid rotation anyway.

With Minnesota, I think their recent struggles have been from their lineup dragging. But it's a very good lineup and I don't expect it to stay down long. The key to carching them is their pitching. I think Perez is doing it with mirrors, Gibson too. Those guys will fall off. Berrios is good but he only pitches every five games.

[Lathum]

Should say Indians 7.5 back

[Butter]

8/1 is close. I'm seeing numbers from various sources in the 12-18% range for the Indians to win the Central.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

7.5 games is a big ask, but I can see it happening. The Cleveland offense seems to be getting better, especially if Ramirez starts to return to normal (although as constituted, that offense is not ever going to be good). I wouldn't put much weight on Kluber or Carrasco though. Carrasco has some weird blood disease and Kluber is out until.September. But if Bauer gets back.to form (he's close) and Clevenger finally comea back (he should be back this week), you have a solid rotation anyway.

With Minnesota, I think their recent struggles have been from their lineup dragging. But it's a very good lineup and I don't expect it to stay down long. The key to carching them is their pitching. I think Perez is doing it with mirrors, Gibson too. Those guys will fall off. Berrios is good but he only pitches every five games.

I took it for a dime.

I'm not worried about the games back since they have so many against each other.

What I am thinking is the Indians can make a run, and if they take the lead I may be able to hedge and get the Twins at plus money and lock in a profit.

[Lathum]

My bet moved the line. Crazy. I checked the app a couple minutes ago. I got them at +800. When I checked the app they were at +700

[jbergey22]

Baseball Prospectus has the Twins 90.5% to win the division while Cleveland is 9.4%. I dont mind the bet as AL Central is such an awful division and the Twins depend heavily on the bats without much pitching. Lately the bats have gone a bit cold.

[Lathum]

Indians three back. Down to 3-1 or close in most spots. Twins still at -600 and above everywhere, including and insane -2000 at borgata. Need it to get to around even money to lock in a freeroll. Love how things are going. Indians have two more vs KC then Toronto while twins have 2 vs Oakland then get the Yankees. Could be down to 1 after these five games.

[Lathum]

This thread unfortunately doesn't get much traction, but I wanted to throw some stuff around.

As chronicled above I have a ticket for a dime on the Indians to win the AL central at 8-1, so I stand to get 9K back. Made this bet when they were 7.5 back and now they are a game back.

It is getting to the point where I need to hedge. I have to do something either today or tomorrow, as next week the Twins get Miami and KC while the Indians get the Astros and the Angels, so I could easily see the Twins extending their lead.

Today the twins get the white Sox and the Indians have Bauer against KC. These scenarios can occur, both win or both lose and the odds stay the same, tthe Twins gain a game and the odds go up, or the Indians make up a game and the odds go down.

Currently the best odds are the Twins -190 at Draftkings. Trying to decide if I bet the $1900 on the wins, which guarantees a freeroll on the Indians for a 6K return, or if I see what happens today and potentially get a better price.

The biggest concern is Draftkings not taking a bet that size.

So what says you? Hedge today, tomorrow, or not at all?

[murrayyyyy]

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

Shows twins winning the div by 3 games right now. You could always max bet the Twins right now with DK and drop some on a later bet to get you to your hedge mark.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by murrayyyyy

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

Shows twins winning the div by 3 games right now. You could always max bet the Twins right now with DK and drop some on a later bet to get you to your hedge mark.

I laid the 1900 to win 1K. I am now on a freeroll for 6K.

My concern is actually they trade Bauer after his start today, or worse scratch him

[Lathum]

Just hedged the Twins again at -150. Their schedule is just breaking too easy. So I am guaranteed a 1K profit for the Twins and 4600 for Indians. Thought about trying propswap for the Indians ticket, but don't think I can get enough to give up the equity if they do win. There was actually a -120 available at Borgata, but Draftkings gave me a $500 deposit bonus, so it was better for me.

[Lathum]

Made one of my single biggest bets ever tonight on the dodgers team total over 5.5. They are cruising and roughed up the Jays pen last night. If it hits I could buy a Hyundai tomorrow

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Made one of my single biggest bets ever tonight on the dodgers team total over 5.5. They are cruising and roughed up the Jays pen last night. If it hits I could buy a Hyundai tomorrow

Ouch. This is why gambling is hard.

I wouldn't have guessed Font and Godley could keep a hot Dodgers offense to 2 runs.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Ouch. This is why gambling is hard.

I wouldn't have guessed Font and Godley could keep a hot Dodgers offense to 2 runs.

yup

ouch

[Butter]

I am back into it for football season.

I have 2 win total bets.

Wake Forest Over 6 wins (-105)
Minnesota Under 7.5 wins (+105)

Then a bet for this coming weekend:

Florida / Miami U48 (-120)

Miami breaking in a new QB vs. Florida. Miami wasn't exactly an offensive powerhouse last year as it is.

Rivalry game. First game of the year. Maybe the 1st half under will be a better play, but I don't envision a ton of scoring.

I have been hearing a lot of support for the Over in Arizona / Hawaii, currently at 74. That's so high, I don't think I'm gonna pull the trigger, but maybe.

[jbergey22]

I like the under pick. Defense will have a huge advantage early in the season.

Gophers have a nice schedule and they are bringing in some better recruits but yeah seeing them with a total of 7.5 history says you are right in taking the under.

One game for next week I targeted awhile ago is Tennessee -25 against Georgia State. My line of thinking on that is Georgia State will be one of the worst teams in all of D1 college football and while Tennessee will probably end up in the middle of the SEC they should easily handle Georgia State 49-7 or something like that. Lopsided talent game in which its under 4 tds.

Originally I was leaning towards Oregon +3 vs Auburn but with the hype Oregon is getting and the lack of line movement in that one it feels like Oregon is the wrong side.

[Butter]

Here's what I've got so far for this weekend:

UVa -2.5 @ Pitt
NW +6.5 @ Stanford
E Car +17 @ NC St.
Cincinnati -3 (+105) v. UCLA
S. Car. / N. Car. Under 63

I also took Clemson at -46.5 for +340 for a small speculative bet.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Butter

Cincinnati -3 (+105) v. UCLA

Tell me more please. UCLA +3.5 was an early lean of mine. Cincy seems very weak this year and UCLA should be much improved in the 2nd year of Chips system. Am I misreading Cincy?

[Butter]

Cincy is a fringe top-25 team, they were just behind UCF in the preseason poll in their division. Cincy won at UCLA last year. I am not sure how they appear weaker than last year, as it looks like 10-3/11-2 is expected again, with a preseason rank of #34 and more growth expected under their new coach.

Chip Kelly will be looking to get off on a better footing this year, but I don't see where their team has improved a ton roster-wise.

Seems like the line is moving towards UCLA, but I'm not really sure why. Even at least one UCLA fan site I looked at has this chalked up as a UC win.

Most sites I'm looking at have UCLA predicted to finish around 5-7 or so, that shouldn't be good enough to win on a long road trip, even with revenge as a factor, against a top tier Group of 5 team.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Butter

Cincy is a fringe top-25 team, they were just behind UCF in the preseason poll in their division. Cincy won at UCLA last year. I am not sure how they appear weaker than last year, as it looks like 10-3/11-2 is expected again, with a preseason rank of #34 and more growth expected under their new coach.

Chip Kelly will be looking to get off on a better footing this year, but I don't see where their team has improved a ton roster-wise.

Seems like the line is moving towards UCLA, but I'm not really sure why. Even at least one UCLA fan site I looked at has this chalked up as a UC win.

Most sites I'm looking at have UCLA predicted to finish around 5-7 or so, that shouldn't be good enough to win on a long road trip, even with revenge as a factor, against a top tier Group of 5 team.

Thanks. I did check up on them while waiting for your response. Very good returning QB, great backs, deep at WR, replacing a couple starters on the offensive line. Defensive line looks a bit weak but the rest of the defense is very strong. I guess I am not sure why I thought they were going to be weak. Maybe at one point I thought they played a weak schedule last year and wouldnt translate well this year but even if they regress a bit they should be very good. Keep your picks coming this is a great way to share thoughts.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Butter

Cincy is a fringe top-25 team, they were just behind UCF in the preseason poll in their division. Cincy won at UCLA last year. I am not sure how they appear weaker than last year, as it looks like 10-3/11-2 is expected again, with a preseason rank of #34 and more growth expected under their new coach.

Chip Kelly will be looking to get off on a better footing this year, but I don't see where their team has improved a ton roster-wise.

Seems like the line is moving towards UCLA, but I'm not really sure why. Even at least one UCLA fan site I looked at has this chalked up as a UC win.

Most sites I'm looking at have UCLA predicted to finish around 5-7 or so, that shouldn't be good enough to win on a long road trip, even with revenge as a factor, against a top tier Group of 5 team.

I don't know how this game will go. You very well may be right. But I would not bet this game. Here is why:

1. Cincy had a great season last year-- against one of the worst schedules in the country. One of the stories I read on Bruin Report Online said they were around maybe the 50th best team in the country last year when considering the schedule and metrics and what not. Same site suggested as many as eight teams on UCLA's schedule were better than the best team on UC's schedule.

2. They return most of their D, which is a very good thing. But they lost their three best D Linemen, by far. The backups who are now starting in their place did little to distinguish themselves.

3. Why is the D Line important here? UCLA returns four of five starters from a very good O Line, and they finished last year running the ball very well. They ran all over USC and Stanford.

4. The game last year versus Cincy was Game #1 of Chip Kelly and he was trying to implement completely new systems. So the team was already behind the eight ball with that. Then they lost their starting QB Wilton Speight halfway through the game, forcing a true freshman in Dorian Thompson Robinson to come in. In his first college game. Ever.

5. From Game 5 on last year, UCLA had around a top 30 offense. In addition to the USC win and 40+ points versus Stanford, they also put a big scare on Washington and blasted Cal by 30. Almost everyone from that offense is back.

6. The defense was a major concern through most of the season last year, but there is a lot of talent there, especially in the secondary. On the D Line, UCLA is starting two massive human beings in Mafi and Ogbonnia who together have about 720 lbs. The line is deep, huge and experienced. UC lost a good portion of their O Line to graduation, so it may be extremely difficult for them to gain any traction versus that line.

So why wouldn't I just bet UCLA then. Two sides to every coin.

1. UCLA's D needs to prove it's better. It had pass rush issues last year and it's best PR is suspended for this game. There is some hope in some new faces or in the staff being more aggressive with a very good secondary, but I'll believe it when I see it. I think UC will have early success running the ball if they run over tackles, but not up the middle. I also think that they will have less success as the game goes on because their line is going to be very fatigued vs the huge D Line. But with a struggling pass rush, I don't think UCLA gets to IC's QB much and if you stay upright long enough, you can throw on any secondary. Does UC have the QB who makes throws? My understanding is their offense was and still is mediocre.

2. The one O Line spot UCLA is replacing? LT. And with a true freshman to boot, thanks to an injury to the projected starter. A very talented true FR, but still a FR. Does UC have the pass rush to take advantage? They also lost their best PR DE.

3. DTR did very well at times last year, but also had poor games. He is considered very talented, and most QBs make their biggest jumps from FR to SO years. But Cincy's back 7 is very solid and experienced. I think UCLA will try to run the ball a lot (and I suspect they will be good at it), but at some point DTR will need to make some throws. Jury is out.

4. UCLA's top RB Joshua Kelley is a monster... but he missed most of training camp with a knee to knee contact injury and is still not appearing to be truly 100%. There are other talented backs on UCLA besides Kelley but none of them have come close so far to what he was doing last year (including over 200 yards vs SC).

5. The previously mentioned obvious factors. It's in Cincy. It's a long road trip for UCLA. Cincy is a well coached team returning most of its starters (just like UCLA).

Honestly, I would not bet this game, not with a line at a FG. There are safer games to go after.

[Chief Rum]

Speaking of bets on UCLA, if you're finding them anywhere at just 5 wins, bet the over. That is a much better bet than playing this game.

[Butter]

Current bet I'm seeing on that is UCLA Over 6 at -140, which means that bettors are leaning more towards a 7-5 type team. We shall see.

I think getting -3 at + money is good value. But we shall see on that as well.

The Pac12 has a ton of mediocre middling teams. I wouldn't bet on most of them to win at a good Group of 5 team. UC doesn't get the opportunity often to get a Power5 team to come into Cincinnati, let alone on opening night.

Chip Kelly will finally earn some of that contract if he wins this game, and maybe it will signal UCLA is actually on the way back if they can pull it out.

[albionmoonlight]

This is the time of year when you see the enormous 30+ pointspreads in college football. What is the strategy for betting those games? It seems like whether the favored team wins by 20 or 30 or 40 or 60 has more to do with how they’re going to approach the game then some sense of if they are “really“ 32.5 points better than their opponent.

Do you just run your system like normal, or do you approach those differently?