FOFC's Greatest Athlete III (interactive)

[PilotMan]

I'm actually planning on being on vacation the same time. I've waited for years for III. I'm just excited you're running it again. It is without reservation, one of the very best interactive dynasties of all time.

[Breeze]

FOFC's GREATEST ATHLETE III - Game Mechanics

Couple more quick notes for game play.

Effort Points & Fatigue
As I mentioned in the initial Game Mechanics write up, each of you will receive effort points that you can assign to each dice roll in order to use the all out column on your player card. However, I've decided to add some additional strategy to this by allowing you to go over the number of effort points assigned, with the understanding that fatigue penalties will be applied from that point forward. Moreover, the penalties are cumulative, so the more you go over the more fatigue you will experience. (If you are thinking of going over on the 1500 just because the penalties will not have time to impact you, you are welcome to try it and see…)

Injuries & Fatigue
Also, I mentioned that I would be letting you know basic probabilities for jump/throw/event improvements with each attempt, however, I think it is important to understand that my explanations to you will not factor in fatigue or injury penalties. Like in real life, an athlete knows he’s not 100%, so he doesn’t expect a personal best, he doesn’t know how off he is, and I’m not going to flat out tell you how much you are being impacted.

[Breeze]

Effort Points Update

I attempted to PM all of you with your effort points for each day. If you didn't receive anything let me know, I probably forgot to put a subject in the message and it didn't send.

[Breeze]

Update

Just waiting on a quick response from 1 person and then I'll introduce the field and we'll get started...

[Breeze]

Meet the Athletes

After a long layoff, we have finally gotten the funding required to host another FOFC’s Greatest Athlete Decathlon. This will be the 3rd Championship hosted by FOFC and we are looking forward to another spectacular event. Before we get started, let’s take a second to recognize our previous champions:

- Stan Gunner – USA (9049 points)
- Gryffydd Llyw – Wales (8788 points)


Before we get started we want to take a moment to introduce the athletes:

Gryffydd Llyw – Wales – the champion from the second greatest athlete competition, I mean the Greatest Atlete II...not the second greatest athlete, that'd be dumb, who wants to be the second greatest...that was just...oh nevermind...anyway he's back to defend his championship. Similar to vII, Llyw continues to be an all-around focused athlete that hopes his steady approach allows him to once again come out on top. He basically won’t have any stretch of time where he’ll dominate, but he should make jumps in the High Jump and Javelin. Llyw is so popular in his home country that he requests to compete for Wales rather than Great Britain…a point that is sometimes sticky between the two entities, but apparently the agreement is he can compete for Wales in all competitions other than the World Championships and the Olympics, and that’s why he shows up as a Welsh representative here.

Brian Babson – Iceland – The former boxer and golfer is the only athlete to compete in all three of these competitions. This also happens to be the 3rd country he represents. In the first competition he represented the US. However, he ran out of money when in Germany for a golf tournament and couldn’t afford to return home. That is until he collected his prize money for finishing second in the Greatest Athlete II. Then he attempted to fly back to the US, but his plane had to emergency land in Iceland, and while he was waiting on repairs he knocked out a security guard with a left hook, and has been detained in the country ever since (the government considered it assault with a deadly weapon once they learned he had previously been a boxer). He’s agreed to represent Iceland in this event in hopes of gaining his freedom. Last time he competed he dominated the event, leading the entire time, until his lack of endurance resulted in a pathetic result in the 1500 and he was passed for the overall victory. He had vowed to improve his endurance, but when interviewed about that he said, “Do you know how cold it is in Iceland? No way in hell I’m going outside in that weather!” So we’ll have to wait and see how much his lack of, um…outside activity hurts his results.

Kurt Rambis, Jr. – USA – The bronze medal winner from vII is also back. Last time out he had strong showings in the Shot Putt, High Jump, Discus, Javelin, and 1500…he’s since worked more on his speed so I suspect he’ll have good results in the 100 meters, shot, hurdles, discus and especially pole vault.

Rob Nielsen – Denmark – Another returner from the second competition, Nielsen managed to finish 7th last time out, but was much more competitive than that sounds. Poor performances in the last day in the discus, javelin and the 1500 caused him to lose ground. Going into the 1500 he was in medal contention sitting in 4th place. He has greatly improved his endurance in hopes of preventing the collapse he suffered last time out, and he should battle Babson for the best result in long jump.

David Ginsberg – Israel – In vII, Ginsberg finished a solid 5th, only 15 points out of the medals. He’s determined to improve this time around. He was so close last time out, had he thrown the discuss 3 feet further, or the shot 11” further, or run the 1500 3 seconds faster he would have earned the bronze. Like last time out, he’s going to have to overcome poor field events if he hopes to improve on his final standings.

Jawouk Bafou – Cameroon – The former basketball player for Duke University finished 9th in this event last time out on raw ability and stamina, having just transitioned into track and field. Since the last decathlon, he’s finished his major, and he’s been concentrating on improving his training to produce more consistent results, but it appears he’ll be strongest in the end of both day 1 and day 2. I also suspect he’ll get off to a very slow start. When he isn’t training he is giving back to his community as he opened and operates an NGO that builds secondary schools in villages like the one he grew up in. No information on if those schools have good track and field teams.

Al Mighty – Italy – The final returning competitor to our competition is also the only one that competed in the first but not the second competition. Al, the former Irish athlete competed in the first decathlon finishing 7th, but before the second one could be run, he had a falling out with Larry McGillicuddy, the Irish representative in that meet. Rumors are the argument was over Guinness vs Smithwick’s…but we can’t confirm that. Whatever the reason, Mighty left the country and now competes for Italy. Unfortunately for Ireland McGillicuddy didn’t qualify for this meet. Like last time, Mighty is hoping a quick start in the 100 meters and long jump will help carry him, but he’ll have to avoid a let down on day 2 to get on the podium.

Tarc Jordan – Ireland – Ireland may not have Mighty anymore and McGillicuddy may not have qualified to compete here, but Tarc Jordan did. The new entry has a solid looking skill set and like Mighty he’ll approach this event hoping to jump out to an early lead and hang on as he is decidedly better on day 1 than he is on day 2.

Paavo Ketola – Finland – Probably the fastest of all the fast starters, so much so that if he isn’t is the top position after the first 3 events by a pretty good margin I’ll be very surprised. However, after those first 3, it will be a struggle. It’s almost as if his training started with event one, moved to event two, then to the shot putt and then he runs out of time and goes home, only to repeat the process the next day. That assessment isn’t actually fair as he’s also good at the discuss, but the distance stuff and going over a bar (pole vault and high jump) are below average.

Mike Honcho – USA – The US’ second representative at these games is an interesting competitor. He is athletic, fast, and strong, but he’s all over the place. Raw in a way that is reminiscent of Bafou from the last meet, he struggles with technique and he appears to be stiff and out of control a majority of the time. However, that doesn’t prevent him from dominating from time to time. Watch out for him in the final events of both days and the discus, where his wild bizarre out of control rotation sometimes results in big throws.

Mike Schaplowsky – Poland – The Polish representative is the epitome of consistency in training. He’s solid across the board in his skills which results in pretty consistent performances. He probably won’t dominate anything, but he shouldn’t disappear in any single event either. His training style typically results in a poor 100 meters, as the rest of the field tends to have more speed, but in the middle of the meet, expect to see Schaplowsky make a steady climb up the leaderboard.

Comrade Path – Russia – very little is known about Comrade Path…he hails from Chernobyl and he’s sports a tattoo of Putin, and other competitor swear his shoes have a faint glow to them, but other than that it’s as if this athlete never existed. When asked for more details the Russian officials just shrug apologetically saying they don’t have any to give, and amazingly the come across completely believable not like they are actually trying to cover anything up. It’s obvious the other competitors as well as the Russian officials, trainers, and coaches are all uncomfortable around him. As far as ability goes, practice results indicate he should be strongest in the middle of the meet and again at the very end. In fact, he could outright win the javelin event…there are rumors that he hunts with one which is what makes him so good at that event, but no one wants to get close enough to talk with him in order to confirm.

Octavio Palmiero – Paraguay – another in a long list of fast start competitors. He’ll be very good early in the 100 meters, long jump and shot putt. He should also do well in the hurdles and javelin. However, unlike some of the other fast starters, Palmiero doesn’t have obvious weaknesses, which has led some of the experts to pick him as a favorite for this decathlon.

Em Peltonen – Finland – The second representative from Finland to make the qualifying score for this event, Peltonen is more at home in Winter sports, as he continues to push for a Winter Decathlon, but until he can get some traction on that, he competes in the Summer Games, and he competes well. He really has no weaknesses, but he won’t be a fast starter. He’ll hit his stride at the end of day 1 and early into day 2, with solid scores throughout.

Eddie Chilton – Great Britain – This is the first representative (not counting Llyw) from Great Britain since the first competition, when David Yelloppe finished 5th. Chilton is an up and down performer with strong sprinting and jumping skills, but weak field events and 1500 will make it difficult for him to medal unless he outperforms his typical results in his weak events or blows people away in his strong ones.

[Breeze]

Event 1 - 100 Meter - Preview

Event Favorites
Ketola, Babson, Chilton

Event Underdogs
Schaplowsky, Bafou, Path

[Breeze]

Event 1 – 100 Meter – Card Review

Ketola – Very strong card with high probability rolls of 10.3 or better. Actually has the ability to go sub 10 with a good roll. If the result isn’t 10.4 or under he will consider the time poor. Prediction 10.2

Babson – Another strong card with results available that are sub 10 seconds. Lots of 10.2s here, and in fact if that isn’t the result I’ll be surprised – Prediction 10.2

Nielsen – A really good sprinter, who on average is well behind the first two athletes listed. Most typical results fall between 10.4 and 10.6…there are a couple of 10.7 that are in dangerous spots and a roll of 10.7 would be disappointing. – Prediction 10.6

Honcho – This card, while the same level as Nielsen’s is actually better…with most results falling in the 10.4 range. Anything over 10.55 would be bad luck – Prediction 10.35

Jordan – Similar looking card to Nielsen, though maybe a bit better with high probability rolls of 10.4 and 10.5 – Prediction 10.5

Mighty – a scary 10.75 on the 3 most likely roll…a bunch of rolls between 10.4 and 10.6. Prediction 10.5.

Rambis Jr. – a very up and down card, with some rolls as low as 10.1 or 10.2, but some bad rolls as high as 10.8 and 10.9. One of the harder cards to predict based on the fluctuations. Prediction – 10.65

Schaplowsky – Needs to go under 11 seconds, but most high probability rolls are 10.85 or higher. Prediction 11.05

Path – While in the same range as Schaplowsky, it appears he has a much better chance of going sub 11, and with a 10.5 on a high probability roll might end up making him the sleeper of this event. Prediction – 10.8

Palmiero – most results are around 10.6 anything well below or well above is either very lucky or unlucky…Prediction 10.6

Ginsberg – very strong rolls of 10.3 and 10.4 on some high probability spots. With a good roll could out perform some of the people ranked above him…Prediction 10.5

Peltonen – another card that I sup and down, with high probability results ranging from 10.5 to 10.9…Prediction 10.7

Bafou – If the result is better than 10.8 it will be a very fortunate roll… Prediction 11.1

Llyw – a tempting 10.4 in a very high probability roll could change the standings in this one early, but mostly likely result will fall around 10.7. Prediction 10.75

Chilton – the final real flyer in this event, can get sub 10, but a bad roll could have him at 10.6. Prediction 10.35.

[Breeze]

Event 1 - 100 Meter Player Announcements

With that...I'm now ready for you to announce your level of effort...

[Breeze]

Event 1 - 100 Meter Result Specifics

Safe
Injuries - 0%
False Starts - 0%

Average
Injuries - .94%
False Starts - .04%

All Out
Injuries - 1.8%
False Start - 13.98%

[ntndeacon]

looks like an average for Palmiero

[Coffee Warlord]

Average seems to be the way to go for Nielsen.

[Greyfriars Bobby]

Peltonen is going average, too.

[path12]

Comrade will go average.

[JAG]

Babson - average. And he will break you.

[collegesportsfanms]

Average is the way to go for Schaplowsky

[cmp]

Average for Ketola.

[Simbo Klice]

Kurt Rambis Jr. will look to make an early move and go All Out.

[BYU 14]

Average for Chilton

[DavidCorperial]

Um, was I supposed to see my cards?

[PilotMan]

Honcho ~ Avg

[Breeze]

Originally Posted by DavidCorperial

Um, was I supposed to see my cards?

No I don't actually distribute the cards...thought about doing that way back in vI but the discussion was it would be too difficult to manage. However, your question did key me into the fact that I probably owe each of you a little better breakdown on the event, so I'll post that shortly and allow any changes to effort level following the new post.

[Breeze]

Event 1 – 100 Meter – Card Review

Note: In reading the card review by effort below the comment in the parentheses is the probability of rolling that result...


Ketola
- SAFE - 10.15 (decent) to 10.8 (low) with average roll around 10.6. A wide spread thru high probability rolls from 10.35 to 10.75
- AVE - 10 (good) to 10.65 (extremely rare) with average roll around 10.3. High probabilty rolls hover between 10.1 and 10.45
- ALLOUT - 9.85 (rare) to 10.6 (decent) with average roll around 10.2. High probabilty rolls range from 9.95 to 10.6

Babson
- SAFE - 10.2 (rare) to 10.75 (good), average roll 10.5, high probabiliy rolls are tightly bunched around 10.5
- AVE - 9.95 (fair) to 10.55 (fair), average roll 10.25, high probabilty rolls almost all are 10.2
- ALLOUT - 9.8 (low) to 10.6 (rare), average roll 10.2, high probabilty rolls vary wildly from 9.85 to 10.55

Nielsen
- SAFE - 10.4 (rare) to 11.05 (good), average roll 10.75, high probably rolls are all bunched around the 10.75.
- AVE - 10.2 (extremely rare) to 10.7 (good), average roll 10.5, high probably rolls between 10.45 and 10.55
- ALLOUT - 10.15 (fair) to 10.8 (good), average roll 10.5, most high probabilty rolls hover around 10.65 but there is that 10.25 mixed in.

Honcho
- SAFE - 10.4 (rare) to 11 (good), average roll 10.75, high probably rolls are all bunched around the 10.75.
- AVE - 10.2 (rare) to 10.8 (rare), average roll 10.5, high probably rolls between all around 10.45
- ALLOUT - 10.05 (rare) to 10.8 (good), average roll 10.5, most high probabilty rolls hover around 10.7.

Jordan
- SAFE - 10.45 (fair) to 11.05 (good), average roll 10.75, high probably rolls most are around 10.85, but a couple are around 10.5.
- AVE - 10.2 (good) to 10.85 (rare), average roll 10.55, high probably rolls lots of 10.4s, but a few 10.65 and 10.7s
- ALLOUT - 10.1 (fari) to 10.8 (good), average roll 10.5, most high probabilty rolls hover around 10.7.

Mighty
- SAFE - 10.4 (rare) to 11 (good), average roll 10.75, high probably rolls most are around 10.80
- AVE - 10.35 (fair) to 10.8 (fair), average roll 10.55, high probably rolls wide spread from 10.4 to 10.75
- ALLOUT - 10.1 (fair) to 10.85 (good), average roll 10.55, most high probabilty rolls widely spread 10.35 to 10.85

Rambis Jr.
- SAFE - 10.5 (fair) to 11 (very good), average roll 10.75, high probably rolls 10.6 to 10.9
- AVE - 10.3 (fair) to 10.85 (fair), average roll 10.55, high probably rolls wide spread from 10.35 to 10.7
- ALLOUT - 10.1 (rare) to 10.9 (good), average roll 10.55, most high probabilty rolls around 10.65

Schaplowsky
- SAFE - 11 (fair) to 11.6 (fair), average roll 11.25, high probably rolls 11.05 to 11.3
- AVE - 10.5 (fair) to 11.35 (fair), average roll 11, high probably rolls around 10.9
- ALLOUT - 10.35 (fair) to 11.3 (rare), average roll 10.9, most high probabilty rolls around 11 but a tempting 10.4 on one of the results

Path
- SAFE - 10.8 (rare) to 11.55 (fair), average roll 11.2, high probably rolls around 11.3
- AVE - 10.5 (good) to 11.2 (rare), average roll 10.85, high probably rolls range from 10.5 to 11.1
- ALLOUT - 10.35 (rare) to 11.3 (good), average roll 10.9, most high probabilty rolls around 11

Palmiero
- SAFE - 10.5 (average) to 11.05 (average), average roll 10.75, high probably rolls around 10.75
- AVE - 10.2 (good) to 10.8 (extremely rare), average roll 10.55, high probably rolls around 10.6
- ALLOUT - 10.05 (rare) to 10.85 (rare), average roll 10.5, most high probabilty rolls around 10.65

Ginsberg
- SAFE - 10.55 (very good) to 11.05 (good), average roll 10.8, high probably rolls all appear to be 10.8
- AVE - 10.2 (extremely rare) to 10.85 (fair), average roll 10.55, high probably rolls most around 10.45, but a few 10.7s
- ALLOUT - 10.15 (rare) to 10.85 (good), average roll 10.55, most high probabilty rolls around 10.8

Peltonen
- SAFE - 10.7 (fair) to 11.2 (good), average roll 11, high probably rolls appear to be around 10.95
- AVE - 10.45 (fair) to 11 (fair), average roll 10.7, high probably rolls most around 10.55
- ALLOUT - 10.3 (rare) to 11.15 (fair), average roll 10.7, most high probabilty rolls around 10.9, but a tempting 10.4 is also present

Bafou
- SAFE - 10.85 (poor) to 11.5 (poor), average roll 11.2, high probably rolls appear to be around 11.25
- AVE - 10.5 (extremely rare) to 11.45 (fair), average roll 10.9, high probably rolls most around 10.9
- ALLOUT - 10.35 (fair) to 11.35 (good), average roll 10.85, most high probabilty rolls around 11.15

Llyw
- SAFE - 10.7 (fair) to 11.25 (poor), average roll 10.95, high probably rolls appear to be around 10.9
- AVE - 10.45 (rare) to 11.25 (fair), average roll 10.7, high probably rolls vary from 10.45 to 10.75, most closer to the high end.
- ALLOUT - 10.3 (fair) to 11 (good), average roll 10.7, most high probabilty rolls around 11

Chilton
- SAFE - 10.15 (rare) to 10.8 (fair), average roll 10.5, high probably rolls appear to be between 10.4 and 10.65
- AVE - 9.9 (fair) to 10.5 (fair), average roll 10.25, high probably rolls vary most around 10.3
- ALLOUT - 9.8 (fair) to 10.6 (good), average roll 10.25, most high probabilty rolls vary between 10.1 and 10.6

Hope this helps. I'm not going to assume that everyone will stick with their previous effort level, so please repost your efforts so I know you've seen the information above...

[Coffee Warlord]

Still cool with Average on the Mighty Dane.

[ntndeacon]

I am sticking with average

[JAG]

Babson - still average

[cmp]

Average for Ketola

[path12]

Path average.

[collegesportsfanms]

You know what, I feel like being gutsy here. Have Mr. Schaplowsky go all out and see what happens. It will probably backfire on me, but what the hey

[Greyfriars Bobby]

Peltonen will stick with average.

[Simbo Klice]

Hmmm, the risk/reward benefit would seem to make Average a better play for Rambis Jr.

[Breeze]

Originally Posted by Simbo Klice

Hmmm, the risk/reward benefit would seem to make Average a better play for Rambis Jr.

Everyone this brings up a good point.

Keep in mind, in the write ups it is hard to relate the risk reward aspects of the allout column. Because the allout has very good results and poor results often the average of those is very similar to the average column...however, there are more big results in the allout than there are in the average column, you just need to hit the right row...

[chesapeake]

Based on my card review, it appears that my all-out card may actually be worse than my average card. So I will go with AVERAGE.

Thanks! I'm having fun already.

[Breeze]

Event 1 - 100 Meter - Status

Waiting on effort announcements from:

Hancho
Jordan
Mighty
Ginsberg
Bafou
Chilton

Once I have them I will post results. If I don't get the announcement before tomorrow at 2 PM, I will plan to run them as Average.

[PilotMan]

It'll be a avg run from Honcho. No sense in getting hurt on the first event.

[BYU 14]

Still average for Chilton

[thealmighty]

Al goes average.

[DavidCorperial]

Average for Ginsberg, sorry for the delay, was asking and am on vacation in Costa Rica and did a trip to Nicaragua yesterday, did not get any internet.

[Breeze]

Originally Posted by DavidCorperial

Average for Ginsberg, sorry for the delay, was asking and am on vacation in Costa Rica and did a trip to Nicaragua yesterday, did not get any internet.

No problems...have fun...

[Breeze]

Just waiting on Bafou and Jordan now...

[Breeze]

Event 1 – 100 Meter - Preview

The runners are all stretched out and we are about to get underway. The 100 Meters will be run in 2 heats, with 8 in the first and 7 in second.

Heat 1

L1 -Schaplowsky
L2 - Rambis Jr
L3 - Honcho
L4 - Babson
L5 - Ketola
L6 - Jordan
L7 - Nielsen
L8 - Mighty


Heat 2

L1 - Bafou
L2 - Llyw
L3 - Palmiero
L4 - Chilton
L5 - Ginsberg
L6 - Peltonen
L7 - Path

The first heat should be much faster than the second one with big time sprinters Babson and Ketola in the first heat along with the very strong Nielsen, Honcho, Jordan, Might and Rambis Jr. In fact, poor Schaplowsky is the only runner in the first 8 you wouldn’t consider at least good in this event…he’ll almost certainly not only come in last, but the rest of the field might be sitting and having a meal before he reaches the line.

In heat two you’ll see a much wider spread in ability as Chilton is the only athlete that can be considered a top end sprinter for a decathlete. However, Palmiero and Ginsberg are capable of ripping off a fast time. The rest will be also rans in this event, but hoping to earn as many points as possible.

[Breeze]

Event 1 – 100 Meters - Heat 1

The runners are taking their places. The starter issues his set order…the gun fires and…

Oh my! Babson is out quickly – like he was shot out of a gun. The quick start appears to have caught Honcho in the lane next to him by surprise and he stumbles on his start. That’s going to really hurt.

As we approach the midway point of the race, Babson is really striding out and starting to pull away from the field, this is going to be a very fast time for him. Ketola, easily in second is trying to real in Babson, while Jordan and Rambis Jr battle for third with Nielsen hot on their heals. Mighty is in 6th, with Schalowsky next and Honcho still trying to recover from his stumble.

As Babson heads into the finish, Ketola appears to have second locked up, and Jordan is starting to edge out ahead of the others for 3rd. Nielsen, Rambis Jr, and not Mighty are tight for 4th, and Honcho has caught Schalowsky.

Babson wins…and Ketola is second.
Jordan takes 3rd.
The rest come to the line tightly bunched, Honcho is closing hard, but will he have enough room to catch the pack…

It’s extremely close, but it appears that Honcho didn’t quite catch the pack, and that Mighty appears about a half a step behind Nielsen and Rambis Jr…but I can’t tell with my naked eye who got 4th. We will have to wait on the photo finish and the official results. Schaplowsky as predicted brought up the rear a good ways back…

The official results are in:

Babson – 9.95
Ketola – 10.25
Jordan – 10.4
Rambis Jr. – 10.55
Nielsen – 10.6
Mighty – 10.7
Honcho – 10.8
Schaplowsky – 11.15

Well that certainly didn’t go according to the script…Honcho’s early stumble was a killer, probably cost him half a second, and Babson going sub 10 is HUGE…we’ll get into this more in the event review when we have more time. Right now it’s time to get the second heat into the starting blocks.

[Breeze]

Event 1 – 100 Meters - Heat 2

The runner charge out of the blocks as the gun goes off to start heat two. The field is tightly bunched early.

At the midway point Chilton is establishing himself, and Palmiero is responding by trying to keep pace. The rest of the field is moving like a wall towards the finish, there is almost to room between them.

Approaching the finish and Chilton is definitely going to win the heat and Palmiero will be about a stride back, but the rest of the field is still tightly bunched. It looks like the defending champ Llyw, Peltonen and Ginsberg are beginning to inch out on Bafou and Path. I’d expect Ginsberg to pull ahead coming in and take 3rd as he is the superior sprinter.

Chilton wins
Palmiero second

Peltonen, Llyw, and Ginsberg continue to battle for third, while Bafou and Path bring follow a step and half back…

Third is too close to call…

But Path does cross slightly ahead of Bafou…

The results are up on the board and they are:

Chilton – 10.3
Palmiero – 10.45
Ginsberg – 10.7
Peltonon – 10.7
Llyw – 10.7
Path – 10.85
Bafou – 10.9

Another surprise in that the back end Path and Bafou performed as well as they did, and Ginsberg’s inability to open up a lead on Peltonon and Llyw has to be disappointing…

[tarcone]

Sorry about not getting my effort preference in. Was on the road the last two days. Just got to where I was going.

[cmp]

Solid start for Ketola. I know he has more left in the tank.

[collegesportsfanms]

Geez, so much for going all out. lol

[JAG]

Babson smiles, hoping the decathlon will end after this event because he's already tired.

[PilotMan]

Honcho should've went balls out.

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Sorry about not getting my effort preference in. Was on the road the last two days. Just got to where I was going.

Pretty much a ditto here; sorry. I'll try to keep better watch as my travels continue for several more days...

[Breeze]

Event 1 - 100 Meter - Recap



Winners

Babson - Yes, we expected him to do well, but managing to hit the only sub 10 second roll on the average column is huge, as there was no better result possible without going all out.

Bafou - Predicted to go over 11 seconds, not only stayed under but stayed reasonably close to the tail end of the middle pack


Losers

Honcho - as I stated in the prediction, anything over a 10.55 would be bad luck. Well we are way over 10.55. In fact, this was the exact opposite of Babson, Honcho rolled the absolute worst number possible, which he had only about a 2.8% chance of doing.

Schaplowsky - yes we expected him to be slow, but he used a precious all-out pick, and ended up with a poor time. In fact, in the column there were only 5 outcomes worse and 20 better...

Ginsberg - the 10.7 result was surrounded by 10.3 to 10.4 results. The are only four 10.7 results in the column (most in low probability spots) and a 10.75 (also low probabilty), everything else is better.


The rest basically performed as expected. Palmiero had a nice improvement over the prediction, but it wasn't totally unexpected, while Mighty was the opposite under performing based on his prediction, but again not totally unexpected as the card breakdown talks about a wide range of results from 10.4 to 10.75.

[Breeze]

Standings - After Event 1

Babson		1108
Ketola		1035
Chilton		1023
Jordan		999
Palmiero	987
Rambis Jr	963
Nielsen		952
Mighty		929
Ginsberg	929
Peltonen	929
Llyw		929
Honcho		906
Path		894
Bafou		883
Schalowsky	827