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05-21-2003, 05:11 AM
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#51 | |||
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Dynasty Boy
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Michigan
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Re: Preakness Fun
Quote:
You make some good points, but I covered what I saw as the most likely exacta (FUNNY CIDE / PEACE RULES in either order) with my trifecta bets, which would have paid off much better than even the exacta. Thinking it through... exacta keys on PEACE RULES and FUNNY CIDE would have costed $32, easy enough to cover. If PR/FC had finished 2/1 or 1/2, it would have paid out $13 or so. Not a very good bet. If SCRIMSHAW or SENOR SWINGER had finished second, the payout would have been around $30, which isn't great either. The others would likely have paid off in the $50 to $150 range, at which the actual exacta was at the high end. Hmmm... I liked the trifecta plays better, but I could have dumped the PR/FC and FC/PR exactas, saving a little, and hoped the entry stayed out of second. Same effect, but (likely) bigger profits. I'll keep it in my tool box for next time. Thanks. |
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05-21-2003, 08:28 AM
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#52 | ||
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Preakness Fun
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A true "minus pool" deep enough for a guaranteed winner actually doesn't happen all that often. Typically, it's in a race with a proven champion, where the titan has scared away most legitimate competition. But I wouldn't want to leave the impression that this is something that occurs once a waak at your local track... much more like once or twice a year, at most. Quote:
Again, it's case-dependent. Yes, in this case the exacta paid more... but in this case, the exacta came in with one of the longest shots on the board in the second spot. What about your "simple exacta key" if the two favorites came in together? In that very reasonable case, by the board the single most likely "winning" outcome by far, a $16 bet on the exacta combination 9-with-ALL would get you back something like $10 or $11 - you lose. It's all relative - you cannot sit in advance and make a blanket statement that one type of bet is flat out better than another in all scenarios. The only thing you can say with certainty is that the takeouts are different, and that the breakage plays a greater factor with low-payout bets than with high-payout bets. That's it - the rest depends on the actual pools. And, when you really like a heavy favorite, you have fairly little choice but to engage in a "very low reward scenario" - unless you end up keying, in essence, on other horses in the race for the important spots in your exotic wagering. In which case those have essentially become your key horses, not the favorite. If all you're doing is asserting your belief that a heavy favorite will indeed win the race - then you have no option but to accept a low reward - it's the fundamental nature of the parimutuel system. Last edited by QuikSand : 05-21-2003 at 08:30 AM. |
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05-24-2003, 05:13 PM
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#53 |
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College Prospect
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Indianapolis, IN, USA
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Just an update on what I did for the Preakness...
I ended up throwing FUNNY CIDE out of my exotics, thinking that one of the favorites would run out of gas (threw out the wrong one). I then played the following: win: PEACE RULES exacta: PEACE RULES/ALL trifecta: PEACE RULES/the entry, MIDWAY ROAD, KISSIN SAINT/ALL The day was not lost as I nailed a sizable win bet on a horse that paid nearly $20.00 on the undercard, GANG. I also have a win bet on a horse today that I have been following closely. ENJOY is running against a couple of the best fillies in the sport, AZERI and AFFLUENT, but ENJOY, I think, has the stuff to pull off an upset today in the Milady. |
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05-24-2003, 05:15 PM
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#54 |
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College Prospect
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Indianapolis, IN, USA
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Quik:
I am thinking about heading to Belmont, as well. Do you have any advice on transportation, lodging, parking, etc? I will probably be flying into LaGuardia on Friady morning and have found several hotels in NYC for less than $100/night. Just wondering what the best scenarios might be. |
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05-24-2003, 05:53 PM
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#55 | |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Quote:
Regrettably, I have no help for you. I go on a chartered bus every year, leave from Baltimore at 5:30am, and return at around 2:00am. I have no insight into accommodations, other than to point out that the Long Island RR runs right up to Belmont Park, if tht helps you out. Hope you have a great day. |
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05-24-2003, 06:30 PM
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#56 | |
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College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Hartford
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Quote:
From Manhattan take the LIRR. Get out early and stay past the Belmont and you won't have a problem. I went out about 9 AM last year and had no problem going in - stayed about 1 hour after the big race and it wasn't nearly as bad getting out as I thought it would be. The LIRR (Long Island Railroad) platforms were nuts right after the race, but a little patience and you'll be fine. |
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05-25-2003, 02:43 PM
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#57 |
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Torchbearer
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: On Lake Harriet
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AZERI went off at 1-5 yesterday and, according to the LA Times, created place and show minus pools. Was this a case where you had a "sure thing"?
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05-25-2003, 05:54 PM
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#58 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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I didn't see the pool totals, but it was certainly possible that she locked up a sure thing in the show pool. She's a monster when running well.
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05-26-2003, 07:58 PM
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#59 |
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College Prospect
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Indianapolis, IN, USA
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I cashed in on the exacta adn trifecta in that race on Saturday even though ENJOY was not able to catch the big dog. That was an eye-popping move in the stretch for that four year old, though.
I also cashed a ticket on ALDEBERRAN's upset over CONGAREE today. Not a bad weekend of racing for me... BTW, thanks for the info on the Belmont. I think I'll stick with the hotel in NYC and take the LIRR in early. |
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