Fantasy Football 2015 Advice Thread

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

I think I'm just having a hard time imagining Peyton really being bad all season long.

I think Peyton will be an effective QB most games, and even have games close to his level of performance is recent past years. You will probably start Manning more often than Newton and that will be fine.

The issue is nearer the end of the season. Manning's performance will start to get worse as he gets more beat up behind that line, and as the weather gets colder. That's when you will want Newton to be there to step in.

[Ragone]

Having a tough time deciding on a qb this week

Matt Ryan at dallas

on waivers are..

Andy Dalton @ baltimore
Tyrod Taylor @ miami
Mariota @ Colts

[bhlloy]

Last minute edition - Abdullah in the late game tonight or Lacy on Monday night? I'm up 20 with only Demariyus Thomas left for the other team, so I'm looking for the safer option who can help me ice it, although with Lacy injured and probably getting a lighter workload damn if I know which one that is

[Chief Rum]

My gut says roll with Lacy, because Denver's D has looked great, and if DET gets down (good possibility), they will go to the pass quickly.

[cmp]

Was just offered TJ Yeldon for Brandon Marshall.

My Wrs are Beckham, Evans, Fitzgerald, Marshall, Watkins, V Jackson

Rbs are Charles, Morris, M Jones, Sankey, McFadden.

We start 3 Wrs. Should I take the deal?

[BishopMVP]

I would. Yeldon will be a workhorse the next few weeks until Washington really gives the job to Jones, and you're really not downgrading at all at WR.

[Butter]

Would just like to note that since I got Tom Brady in my fantasy pay league in Round 6 because everyone was scared of his suspension, that between him and Jamaal Charles (my round 1 pick), I have won my first 3 games with the best score in my league 3 weeks in a row. I've already more than paid for my transaction fees for the season, since the top score gets a payout every week.

It hasn't even mattered that my 2nd round pick, Dez Bryant, has been out all year since I picked up Larry Fitzgerald on waivers after Week 1.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

I would. Yeldon will be a workhorse the next few weeks until Washington really gives the job to Jones, and you're really not downgrading at all at WR.

+1

[HomerSimpson98]

WHat are yall doing with CJ Anderson? Is it time to cut bait and run?

[stevew]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

I've never been in or heard of a league with no trades

I guess it's a NFFC thing and higher stakes leagues often ban trades entirely.

It seems like a good rule to me, anyways.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by HomerSimpson98

WHat are yall doing with CJ Anderson? Is it time to cut bait and run?

Heh. I was just looking at trying to snag him on the cheap in trade.

In the same vein...is it time to unload Forsett?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Heh. I was just looking at trying to snag him on the cheap in trade.

In the same vein...is it time to unload Forsett?

Forsett helped me tons last year, so it's hard to drop him. But in my opinion it is only a matter of time before Taliaferro is the starter. Taliaferro is flat out a better running back, younger, faster, stronger. He was terrific in the preseason last year, and when the Rice suspension became permanent and Pierce showed what he really is, I thought it was a minor upset that Forsett got more run than Taliaferro (I think Taliaferro was also hurt a bit).

As for CJ Anderson, I think in the long run, he keeps his job. I just don't think Hillman is big enough to carry the ball like a #1. His role right now is perfect for what he does. Expanding it will likely get him hurt or dinged up to the point where his production isn't up to snuff. But the real situation is that, so long as that O-Line continues to suck (and it will), the running game will be very limited and this team will rely more and more on Peyton making short screen passes for much of the offense's short work.

[Coffee Warlord]

And god do I have a glut of RBs right now.

Lacy, Forsett, Mat Jones, Danny Woodhead, Chris Johnson.

Thus far, I'm 3 for 3 in guessing wrong on who to Flex between Jones, Woodhead, and Johnson.

[albionmoonlight]

Just traded Sproles for Jarvis Landry. I needed a WR2, she needed a Flex, so it was good for both sides. And the value seemed about equal.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Just traded Sproles for Jarvis Landry. I needed a WR2, she needed a Flex, so it was good for both sides. And the value seemed about equal.

I actually like that deal a lot more for you than her. Good job.

[lungs]

TJ Yeldon or Chris Johnson this week?

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by lungs

TJ Yeldon or Chris Johnson this week?

Chris Johnson looked good last week. It wasn't just a case of putting up numbers. He had the way-back machine going on. I'd ride him and that offense.

[HomerSimpson98]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Forsett helped me tons last year, so it's hard to drop him. But in my opinion it is only a matter of time before Taliaferro is the starter. Taliaferro is flat out a better running back, younger, faster, stronger. He was terrific in the preseason last year, and when the Rice suspension became permanent and Pierce showed what he really is, I thought it was a minor upset that Forsett got more run than Taliaferro (I think Taliaferro was also hurt a bit).

As for CJ Anderson, I think in the long run, he keeps his job. I just don't think Hillman is big enough to carry the ball like a #1. His role right now is perfect for what he does. Expanding it will likely get him hurt or dinged up to the point where his production isn't up to snuff. But the real situation is that, so long as that O-Line continues to suck (and it will), the running game will be very limited and this team will rely more and more on Peyton making short screen passes for much of the offense's short work.

Thanks for the reply. Not sure I agree on Taliaferro but I will pay closer attention.

As for CJ, I completely agree. I could care less if he stays 1 or Hillman does - I handcuffed them both together. The problem is that I dont see a whole lot of upside here at all. CJ looks slow anyway, so its hard to make a dude miss when you get hit 4 yards in the backfield. Hillman looks better but we're talking centimeters and inches here. Its hard to win when you trot out your 1st round pick and he responds with 2 fucking points. Then again, it is only week 4 so there is plenty of time for him to make me look like a jackass if I cut him now.

I hate fantasy football.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Chris Johnson looked good last week. It wasn't just a case of putting up numbers. He had the way-back machine going on. I'd ride him and that offense.

Ellington is back in practice this week and Arians has hinted he might play this weekend. That would put a big dent in Johnson's performance. But if Ellington is out, I agree, roll with CJ4. The Colts aren't terrible versus the run, the Jags are playing them on the road and the Jags are likely to be behind much of the game and will abandon the ground game.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by HomerSimpson98

Thanks for the reply. Not sure I agree on Taliaferro but I will pay closer attention.

As for CJ, I completely agree. I could care less if he stays 1 or Hillman does - I handcuffed them both together. The problem is that I dont see a whole lot of upside here at all. CJ looks slow anyway, so its hard to make a dude miss when you get hit 4 yards in the backfield. Hillman looks better but we're talking centimeters and inches here. Its hard to win when you trot out your 1st round pick and he responds with 2 fucking points. Then again, it is only week 4 so there is plenty of time for him to make me look like a jackass if I cut him now.

I hate fantasy football.

I don't like Anderson either, but I just can't imagine there being a better upside play available on the WW to make cutting Anderson a good option. He's 1A/1B in what I still think is a little above-average offense, with no 3rd back I've heard of even threatening to steal carries.

Forsett I'm a little more bullish on and I'm leaning/(hoping) to it being more of a case of Baltimore playing against a good D in Denver, defenses stacking the box because Kamar Aiken is the #2 WR, and some bad touchdown luck. I've been hearing that Taliaferro or Buck Allen will take over for a full year now, but the touch distribution is still 51/15/14. Especially if you're in a PPR league I think Forsett's a good buy low candidate, and the touchdowns will start coming. Breshad Perriman's return should help open up some space for the running game too. I don't even know if he's a legit receiver or just a combine stud, but he's gotta be better/more respected than Kamar freaking Aiken.

[Coffee Warlord]

Alright boys. Do I roll the dice on Forsett again this week?

For my RB2/Flex spots, I have the following options:

Forsett, Matt Jones, Chris Johnson, Danny Woodhead.

Matt Jones appears to have taken over in Washington, despite his shitty game last week. (edit: More recent news says otherwise there.)
If Ellington is playing Sunday as expected, Chris Johnson is probably a meh.
Forsett has had 3 straight awful games, and is playing a good run D in Pittsburgh, but, he's got more pedigree than my other options.
Woodhead is bloody hard to predict, and he's less valuable in standard league (which I'm in). BUT, he's getting a lot of goal line looks.

I'm thinking Matt Jones is a lock. Maybe. More recent word says he's still not a definite starter. If Ellington doesn't play, I think Chris Johnson is the definite way to go, but assuming he does, it's a tough call.

[stevew]

I assume the Steelers will run a very conservative game plan and that Smith Sr will torch the Steelers corners. Not sure what exactly Forsett will accomplish.

[Chief Rum]

FWIW, Arians came out and said yesterday that even if Ellington is active, Johnson will get the bulk of the carries (he actually projected 15-20, I think).

[BishopMVP]

I'd stick with Forsett, especially with the potential postponement of Washington/Philly. Still haven't seen any evidence Taliaferro or Allen are serious threats to his touches, so I'm willing to give him one more game tonight before starting to question him.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Flex spot this week:

WR Calvin Johnson @SEA
WR Mike Evans vs CAR
RB Frank Gore vs JAX
RB Jeremy Hill vs KC
RB Giovanni Bernard vs KC

(8 team league, hence the talent @ flex)

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

Flex spot this week:

WR Calvin Johnson @SEA
WR Mike Evans vs CAR
RB Frank Gore vs JAX
RB Jeremy Hill vs KC
RB Giovanni Bernard vs KC

(8 team league, hence the talent @ flex)

Megatron isn't as good as he was 2 years ago because they're not throwing deep at all right now, but 30 combined targets the last 2 weeks and they'll likely be behind and throwing most of the game. Easily the highest floor there (with Gore 2nd). Don't overthink it.

[AlexB]

PPR league, can't decide on WR3 - Jarvis Landry or Marvin Jones... Usually Landry would be in, but up against the Jets, while Jones is doing OK and is facing KC this week...

I'm erring on Landry as the safer play, but Jones could end up with big yards.

[albionmoonlight]

Landry is a target machine. Seems high floor low ceiling, which is probably what you want as a WR3

[BishopMVP]

I think a lot of the skepticism of Landry this week was under the assumption the Jets would shadow him with Revis. But I think the Jets have correctly diagnosed that allowing Landry his 6-10 catches for short yardage each game aren't worth basing your gameplan around, so usual nickel corner Skrine will stay on him.

[Chief Rum]

Don't the Dolphins kinda use Landry like the Pats do Edelman, out of more of a slot role, with inside slants or sideline outs? If that's the case, I am not sure they will have Revis on him, but on Matthews instead. They may figure they can guard a quick, short guy with a corner with less ability (is Cromartie healthy again?) and put Revis on the outside and protecting on the longer plays Matthews has been scoring on.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

Flex spot this week:

WR Calvin Johnson @SEA
WR Mike Evans vs CAR
RB Frank Gore vs JAX
RB Jeremy Hill vs KC
RB Giovanni Bernard vs KC

(8 team league, hence the talent @ flex)

I like Gore there. Evans will be shadowed by Norman, who has been great for the Panthers this year. There's just too much risk in the Cincy guys unfortunately (I have them in a few leagues).

Bishop is right that Calvin has been getting a lot of targets, but the Seahawks specialize in taking away top options and forcing you to go to lesser players to move the ball. They will probably have Sherman on Megatron tight, with Thomas guarding for the bomb. Gore has actually run better than it seemed the first two weeks and the Colts are likely to get a lead that they will use Gore to ice.

[Vince, Pt. II]

That's the way I've been leaning, Chief. But the same way that the Colts will probably use Gore to salt the game away, I see Detroit throwing early, often and always in that game. And Calvin Johnson will get his touches.

Edit: which means I see both of your points of view, so someone else weigh in and break the damned tie

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Don't the Dolphins kinda use Landry like the Pats do Edelman, out of more of a slot role, with inside slants or sideline outs? If that's the case, I am not sure they will have Revis on him, but on Matthews instead. They may figure they can guard a quick, short guy with a corner with less ability (is Cromartie healthy again?) and put Revis on the outside and protecting on the longer plays Matthews has been scoring on.

Buster Skrine was brought in to be the slot DB. Cromartie's done it a little in the past, but he's really a boundary corner too.

The Bill Lazor offense is atrocious, so I'm not sure if they only use him there because it's all he can be, or because that really is their #1 option on most plays. I'm curious because I've got him in my dynasty keeper league, so I'm debating whether to sell high on him after this year or if he improve that YPC in a different system.

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I like Gore there. Evans will be shadowed by Norman, who has been great for the Panthers this year. There's just too much risk in the Cincy guys unfortunately (I have them in a few leagues).

Bishop is right that Calvin has been getting a lot of targets, but the Seahawks specialize in taking away top options and forcing you to go to lesser players to move the ball. They will probably have Sherman on Megatron tight, with Thomas guarding for the bomb. Gore has actually run better than it seemed the first two weeks and the Colts are likely to get a lead that they will use Gore to ice.

Is Seattle moving Sherman around more now that Dan Quinn's gone, or are they still leaving him on one side at all times? Also, how close to 100% is Earl Thomas looking? I haven't had a chance to watch the Seahawks play yet.

[dubb93]

Would it be wise for a Big Ben owner that also owns Mariota to try to capitalize on Maritoa's early season success or to just run with Mariota as the starter at this point?

This is my situation and I'm sitting at 3-1 in a 12 team league where 8 teams make the playoffs. We won last week with Mariota on bye. I like my chances to go at worst .500 without either at QB and then closer to .750 once Big Ben is back so I really like my playoff chances in this league. 5-6 wins generally sees the playoffs in this league.

Compounding the QB issue for some teams in THIS league is a mandatory roster minimum of 2 QB's per team. That means that a bare minimum of 24 QBs are rostered and those who drafted poorly are really hurting.

My third QB is Blake Bortles. I really think I could survive with him until my starter gets back.

[Marmel]

Advice request:

Start 2 of these 3 guys:
1) Amari Cooper vs Jets (will Revis be on him?)
2) Nate Washington vs. Houston (breakout week last week?)
3) Martavis Bryant vs. Cin (I have him penciled in)

I'm also starting TY Hilton vs Carolina. If you can make an argument to bench him, let me know, but I don't see it.

Anyway, those are my 4 WRs and I need to start 3. Going against the top team in my league (I'm 4th) and the predicted score is tight, so even a couple points might make a difference.

[Coffee Warlord]

Crabtree will likely see a lot of Revis. Not positive, though, but Cooper could have a good day if Revis focuses on shutting down Crabtree.

[spleen1015]

I think you have to go Copper & Bryant.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Marmel

Advice request:

Start 2 of these 3 guys:
1) Amari Cooper vs Jets (will Revis be on him?)
2) Nate Washington vs. Houston (breakout week last week?)
3) Martavis Bryant vs. Cin (I have him penciled in)

I'm also starting TY Hilton vs Carolina. If you can make an argument to bench him, let me know, but I don't see it.

Anyway, those are my 4 WRs and I need to start 3. Going against the top team in my league (I'm 4th) and the predicted score is tight, so even a couple points might make a difference.

I think Revis will be on Cooper, actually (contrary to CW). I think it is clear at this point how good Cooper can be. Crabtree has gotten more looks essentially because attention is now being diverted to Cooper. And even if for some reason Revis is on Crabtree, Rodgers-Cromartie is also pretty good.

But to be fair, I think Cooper still performs even with Revis on him, just maybe not a blowout, 2 TD type of day.

At this point, I would strongly consider starting just about anyone against Houston.

With Bryant, that's a tough call. He's the sort of guy who can hit a homerun in any game, any corner. The Bengals have a good D, but I don't consider their starters to be shutdown types, even Pac Man. But you really do stand the risk of getting a 0 or a one catch type day if he's off. Plus, the QB thing, looks like Big Ben, but who knows for sure just yet.

I actually think Norman will be on Hilton a lot, and that will be a tough matchup. I think Norman slows Hilton down more than Revis does Cooper.

Of that group, I start Cooper and Washington for sure. If Big Ben plays, I go Bryant. If he doesn't, I go on gut feel morning of between Bryant and Hilton.

The Panthers' D is legit and the Colts have been "off" all season.

[Marmel]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I think Revis will be on Cooper, actually (contrary to CW). I think it is clear at this point how good Cooper can be. Crabtree has gotten more looks essentially because attention is now being diverted to Cooper. And even if for some reason Revis is on Crabtree, Rodgers-Cromartie is also pretty good.

But to be fair, I think Cooper still performs even with Revis on him, just maybe not a blowout, 2 TD type of day.

At this point, I would strongly consider starting just about anyone against Houston.

With Bryant, that's a tough call. He's the sort of guy who can hit a homerun in any game, any corner. The Bengals have a good D, but I don't consider their starters to be shutdown types, even Pac Man. But you really do stand the risk of getting a 0 or a one catch type day if he's off. Plus, the QB thing, looks like Big Ben, but who knows for sure just yet.

I actually think Norman will be on Hilton a lot, and that will be a tough matchup. I think Norman slows Hilton down more than Revis does Cooper.

Of that group, I start Cooper and Washington for sure. If Big Ben plays, I go Bryant. If he doesn't, I go on gut feel morning of between Bryant and Hilton.

The Panthers' D is legit and the Colts have been "off" all season.

Sorry, correction to be made....Washington plays FOR Houston. They are up against Tennessee (who Yahoo seems to think have the 2nd best pass defense??? That can't be right, can it?)

[Marmel]

Also, Yahoo has these projections for week 8. FTR, I don't really think Yahoo has good projections, but just another data point.

Cooper 8.32
Hilton 10.35
Bryant 10.14
Washington 7.95

[Julio Riddols]

Originally Posted by Marmel

Sorry, correction to be made....Washington plays FOR Houston. They are up against Tennessee (who Yahoo seems to think have the 2nd best pass defense??? That can't be right, can it?)

I think Tennessee's pass defense is mostly due to them trailing for much of the year, since teams have only attempted 163 passes against them. That is the lowest in the league by 20 attempts. In net yards per attempt they rank 15th. The problem with playing a WR against them is that you might only get one halfs worth of production.

[Julio Riddols]

Bryant could be a problem against Cincinnati. Bengals coming off a bye, Roethlisberger back under center. I think its a boom or bust play. He either catches 5 balls for 130 and a score or two, or he does something more like 3-50-0. The benefit with Cooper is that the Raiders will likely have to throw the ball a decent amount. TY against Carolina is a tough one, but with Dorsett down, I think he is a pretty safe bet out of this group. He ought to have a few catches at least, because I expect the Colts to turn it over a lot and dig a hole early that they will have to try and throw out of.

[Marmel]

Originally Posted by Julio Riddols

Bryant could be a problem against Cincinnati. Bengals coming off a bye, Roethlisberger back under center. I think its a boom or bust play. He either catches 5 balls for 130 and a score or two, or he does something more like 3-50-0. The benefit with Cooper is that the Raiders will likely have to throw the ball a decent amount. TY against Carolina is a tough one, but with Dorsett down, I think he is a pretty safe bet out of this group. He ought to have a few catches at least, because I expect the Colts to turn it over a lot and dig a hole early that they will have to try and throw out of.

OK, so I go Cooper, TY and Bryant and hope for a boom game from him to take down the 6-1 1st place team.

This is my first FF league in about 10 years. Here are the rest of my options, cause why not:

QB Palmer (AZ) or Romo (DAL) Ha!

RB is Freeman (ATL) and Lynch (SEA) - I have Yeldon (JAX) on a bye, Anderson (DEN) what a huge bust and Murray (OAK)

WR we went over

TE is Bennett with CHI

K is Bryant (ATL)

D is STL or DEN, but DEN is playing GB, so I am starting STL there.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Julio Riddols

I think Tennessee's pass defense is mostly due to them trailing for much of the year, since teams have only attempted 163 passes against them. That is the lowest in the league by 20 attempts. In net yards per attempt they rank 15th. The problem with playing a WR against them is that you might only get one halfs worth of production.

Tennessee has an underrated pass rush, and Washington's a deep threat who really only piled up garbage time points last week and was still out-targeted by Hopkins. Washington could still boom (especially because Houston could still pass a ton with Foster out) but I'd go with the other 3.

[lungs]

Aaron Rodgers vs. Denver or
Cam Newton vs. Indianapolis?

Usually Rodgers is a no brainer start for me, but I hesitate this week against the Denver defense.

[spleen1015]

Never bench your studs.

[B & B]

I disagree and would start Cam without hesitation.

I bench studs all the time, its all about the matchups and the points.

[miked]

Man, which 2 do you pick:

Charcandrick West vs. DET
Doug Martin vs. ATL
Jonathan Stewart vs. IND

I am leaning on taking out Martin, despite the fact he is 4th in points for RBs as I expect TB to get blown out by ATL in the A. I have some breathing room though as I had Brady, Gronk, and the Pats defense on Thursday and my opponent has to start Cultler.

[bhlloy]

Martin and Stewart and it's not even close for me. You don't take out your studs (not that Stewart is a stud, but Martin has been)

[B & B]

Agree


Think that the KC-Kitty cats game will be a low scorer, afterall, were due to ship the Brits some shit show.

1. They don't know any better

2. Another loss, and Ford might contract kill Clueless Caldwell and leave him in Europe, or stuff him with H as a drug mule for one last trip across the pond.

3. Andy Reid secretly wants to show off Cairo Santos to enhance his possibilities of signing with the Premiership in a Darth Goodell infused crossover attempt.