Bitcoin et al.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by cartman

Amazing!

[Edward64]

Just setup a coinbase account today. Haven't bought anything yet, and plan to "invest" cautiously and only what I can afford to lose.

I think cryptos are here to stay and need to understand it better by dipping into it.

Feel free to share any words of wisdom.

[lungs]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Just setup a coinbase account today. Haven't bought anything yet, and plan to "invest" cautiously and only what I can afford to lose.

I think cryptos are here to stay and need to understand it better by dipping into it.

Feel free to share any words of wisdom.

Not a bad time to get in. I know people that lost their ass getting in the past few months while stuff was sailing along at all-time highs. I'm still in the green overall but any money I've stuck in the past few months hasn't made anything yet.

Here's my outlook right now:

Safe plays: BTC, ETH
Decent Upside, but fairly well established: LTC, NEO, XRP
Lottery Tickets: ADA, TRX

I like platforms, so NEO and ETH are seeing most of my money at the moment.

[Icy]

Something I have learned today after installing a new app the tracks all my sales/buys, is that even when I thought I knew what I was doing, at the end I would have had similar results not doing any trading at all and just sitting on my portfolio

Of course with all the trading I have learned a lot, both about markets in general and specially about the different coins, the technology behind them etc

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by lungs

Not a bad time to get in. I know people that lost their ass getting in the past few months while stuff was sailing along at all-time highs. I'm still in the green overall but any money I've stuck in the past few months hasn't made anything yet.

Here's my outlook right now:

Safe plays: BTC, ETH
Decent Upside, but fairly well established: LTC, NEO, XRP
Lottery Tickets: ADA, TRX

I like platforms, so NEO and ETH are seeing most of my money at the moment.

What is your definition of "safe play" e.g. it won't crash much further, won't go to $0, can only go up etc.?"

[lungs]

Originally Posted by Edward64

What is your definition of "safe play" e.g. it won't crash much further, won't go to $0, can only go up etc.?"

Bitcoin and Ethereum are the current top two. In the crypto space, won’t go to zero is probably as safe as it gets. Ethereum is a platform coin. Most of these initial coin offerings are run off the Ethereum platform. Basically, it is operational. While 99% of these other coins are a hope and a dream.

Bitcoin is pretty self-explanatory. It’s the big name right now. It drives the market.

I like NEO. It’s a lot like Ethereum. It provides passive income in the form of another coin (Gas). It is often called the Ethereum of China.

[Edward64]

Just bought the "Ledger Nano S".

Decided to buy direct vs Amazon. Paid $10 more for the peace of mind.

Fun times ahead (and a lot more reading).

[lungs]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Just bought the "Ledger Nano S".

Decided to buy direct vs Amazon. Paid $10 more for the peace of mind.

Fun times ahead (and a lot more reading).

Good move. Don’t be afraid to delete apps on the Ledger even if it has coins stored on it. App storage is kind of limited. But you can delete an app and reinstall it later without losing your coins

[Edward64]

Reading up on Bitcoin and how some exchanges were hacked (e.g. Mt. Gox).

Question -

I assume that Coinbase can also be hacked. If Coinbase is hacked, my bitcoins in the Nano S wallet will still be safe right?

Some articles seem to indicate this but wanted to confirm.

[Groundhog]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Reading up on Bitcoin and how some exchanges were hacked (e.g. Mt. Gox).

Question -

I assume that Coinbase can also be hacked. If Coinbase is hacked, my bitcoins in the Nano S wallet will still be safe right?

Some articles seem to indicate this but wanted to confirm.

Everything can be hacked. If your coins are stored in your wallet, Coinbase being hacked will not impact your coins though.

[Flasch186]

I think BTC becomes a black market currency and is constantly under attack by the powers that be globally and the price becomes difficult to bet on as it becomes harder and harder to convert it to paper.

[Edward64]

Just saw the video re: GDAX (thanks Arles).

When I went into GDAX, I could see trading on a Sat. Its 24/7 trading (guess should have known) and Bitcoin is $8K, down approx 6% today so far.

I don't understand why there are so many different altcoins and how they can make money and be sustainable (e.g. steemit)

After an hour of googling, I'm still not sure what the answer is - each altcoin has their own "IPO" / ICO and can be viewed as their own corporation with their own raison d'etre.

I see the benefit of digital currency ... I don't yet see the benefit of so many different types. Its smells a lot like the dotcom boom/bust to me ...

... my altcoin education continues

[lungs]

Definitely a lot of shitcoins out there. I look for ones that solve a problem.

[Fidatelo]

I think it's asinine that as a society we are supposedly more environmentally aware while at the same time inventing new ways to waste massive amounts of energy doing arguably useless calculations. Show me a coin that doesn't consume ever-larger amounts of energy as the chain grows, and the energy it does consume is useful beyond just the mathematical proof in itself, and I might get interested. As it stands something like BitCoin just appears completely wasteful and unsustainable to me.

[Edward64]

Welp, its been interesting reading the Bitcoin and Ethereum reddit pages past couple days.

Definitely a lot more negative/hodl sentiment than positive (which I guess is to be expected). BTC and ETH down 4.5% and 10% today.

Its obvious to me that one needs a different mindset to invest in BTC, ETH etc. vs stocks, mutual funds, ETFs. I think definitely more "gambling" than "investing".

[Groundhog]

Originally Posted by Fidatelo

I think it's asinine that as a society we are supposedly more environmentally aware while at the same time inventing new ways to waste massive amounts of energy doing arguably useless calculations. Show me a coin that doesn't consume ever-larger amounts of energy as the chain grows, and the energy it does consume is useful beyond just the mathematical proof in itself, and I might get interested. As it stands something like BitCoin just appears completely wasteful and unsustainable to me.

XRP? Pre-generated coins. Agree re: energy, but that's a large part of why the coins are valued as they are (although not disagreeing that its an incredible waste of energy - the tech equivalent of a leather jacket made of white rhino hide).

[Edward64]

Oh great.

Just a PSA for Ledger Nano S owners.

A “tamper-proof� currency wallet just got backdoored by a 15-year-old | Ars Technica

For years, executives at France-based Ledger have boasted their specialized hardware for storing cryptocurrencies is so securely designed that resellers or others in the supply chain can't tamper with the devices without it being painfully obvious to end users. The reason: "cryptographic attestation" that uses unforgeable digital signatures to ensure that only authorized code runs on the hardware wallet.

"There is absolutely no way that an attacker could replace the firmware and make it pass attestation without knowing the Ledger private key," officials said in 2015. Earlier this year, Ledger's CTO said attestation was so foolproof that it was safe to buy his company's devices on eBay.

On Tuesday, a 15-year-old from the UK proved these claims wrong. In a post published to his personal blog, Saleem Rashid demonstrated proof-of-concept code that had allowed him to backdoor the Ledger Nano S, a $100 hardware wallet that company marketers have said has sold by the millions. The stealth backdoor Rashid developed is a minuscule 300-bytes long and causes the device to generate pre-determined wallet addresses and recovery passwords known to the attacker. The attacker could then enter those passwords into a new Ledger hardware wallet to recover the private keys the old backdoored device stores for those addresses.

[Edward64]

Haven't dipped into the market yet with my Nano S but still educating myself.

I think there is an overall negative/bear sentiment in Bitcoins in reading the reddit pages. I don't mind missing the "bottom" so think I'll wait until there is a more positive/stable outlook.

Question for those more experienced here.

1) Do you believe there are massive pump-and-dump schemes in Bitcoin & Ethereum? I'm pretty sure some of it is going on but r/buttcoin make it sound as if this, solely, is what's driving the large swings?

2) Unlike stock market where companies have "fundamentals" that can be analyzed and therefore priced accordingly, many seem to be analyzing Bitcoins and such using "technical" analysis/patterns etc. Do you think this is a valid way of gauging the up/down/price movements?

3) What is your sentiment Bitcoin & Ethereum now?

[PilotMan]

Always seemed like a speculation or a concept driven by other nefarious market forces.



https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...osses-reach-80

[lungs]

I've been riding out this bear market. Of course I've only put in money I can afford to lose.

PNC Bank announcing they are adopting one of Ripple's products has sent XRP skyrocketing the past few days. It was hovering in that high 20 cent range a few days ago and is now trading around 60 cents.

The majority of my holdings are XRP so my portfolio is a lot less ugly today. When I started this, I was thinking five years and I'm not even a year into it yet. Sure, I should've cashed out when I was up 500% but you can't win 'em all!

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by Ace864

A lot of places started to accept bitcoins now. A couple of years ago, you could only mine them, purchase or sell. You couldn't pay for anything with it. Now, I noticed that some places started to accept specific cryptocurrencies as a payment method.

Good to know. The only thing I've used bitcoin for so far is to fund my offshore sportsbook accounts.

[JPhillips]

Bot?

[PilotMan]

The fact that you're asking worries me.

[JPhillips]

Bots editing posts is new, yes?

[Lathum]

Bloodbath yesterday in the crypto markets

[NobodyHere]

Is it just me or are 95% of NFTs just outright scams? And it's crazy how much money they're claiming to have raised. I need to figure out how to get people to handy me nothing and give nothing in return.

Or maybe I've just been watching too many of Coffiezilla's videos on Youtube.

[Brian Swartz]

I'd say 95% is too low.

[JPhillips]

NFTs make so much more sense when you see them as money laundering schemes.

[NobodyHere]

I've got IT!

I'll create a FOFC poster line of NFTs! Imagine you getting to have a bullshit claim of ownership over posters such as JPhillips, Brian Swartz, Lathum or even past posters such as jbmagic!

I'll be rich when I rugpull the whole thing!

[albionmoonlight]

Everyone thinks that everyone else is the sucker who will get left holding the bag.

[jbpostbot]

if you lose all your bitcoin, buy twice as much

[JPhillips]

I hope nobody was heavy into Luna.

PRICE CHANGE (7D)

-99.98%

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by jbpostbot

if you lose all your bitcoin, buy twice as much

I see no flaws here.

[GrantDawg]

Oh, no! A pyramid schemes are going bust? Who would have thought?
NFT's are like baseball cards, beanie babies, comic books etc. They become hot collectables, every one stampedes to buy them up, then the demand disappears and you are left with a worthless whatever.

[QuikSand]

just bought a little $LUNA today... not enough to worry over, but... i mean...if it doesn't go to zero, who knows

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Oh, no! A pyramid schemes are going bust? Who would have thought?
NFT's are like baseball cards, beanie babies, comic books etc. They become hot collectables, every one stampedes to buy them up, then the demand disappears and you are left with a worthless whatever.

Yeah, I'm so glad I only invested in the traditional stock market like a regular sucker.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Oh, no! A pyramid schemes are going bust? Who would have thought?

We don't agree all that often but you certainly nailed this one.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

NFTs make so much more sense when you see them as money laundering schemes.

Bingo

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

just bought a little $LUNA today... not enough to worry over, but... i mean...if it doesn't go to zero, who knows

This struck me as sensible. I quickly signed up on Coinbase that evening and bought $50 worth of something called Wrapped LUNA Token. I figured I'd try to quickly double my money with the dead cat bounce and have a nice steak dinner as a reward.

Well, the dead cat hadn't finished falling :-) My balance has been hovering between $3-$7 since then.

I guess I'm a buy-and-hold crypto investor now.

[Lathum]

My buddy is really in to it and keeps telling me to buy more. I have picked up a bunch of Solana and Cardano. It is hard to watch day after day it go up a little or drop but he keeps insisting this time next year I'll be glad I held on to it.

[Brian Swartz]

I will never buy crypto on principle. It needs volatility to be successful, which is the exact opposite of what you want in a currency. And that leaves aside contributing to all of the negative consequences that result from the industry in general.

[Hammer]

For me, once I understood the concept of the 4 year cycle it all started to make sense. The 4 year cycle is driven by the Bitcoin halving. Bitcoin is the big fish, and will dictate the market.

I think the term cryptocurrency is very misleading, the future of almost all of these assets are not as a currency. Most never intended to be.

The last 4 year cycle ended in 2017. The peak was mid December 2017. This time round the peak was a little earlier, mid November 2021. A double peak cycle, like the 2013 cycle.

I think its a pretty good bet our next cycle peak will be around Q4 2025. All this talk of volatility and crypto crashing makes no sense to me. Simply refer back to this point 4 years ago.

Always possible for black swan events to have an impact, but typically the cycle gets back on course quickly.

Traditionally the bottom of the cycle has been right around the 200 week moving average, which is currently around $22k. We have already seen $25.4k so whilst its possible that was the bottom, history would indicate we likely go lower. The Bitcoin halving isn't until 2024, so it appears we have several years ahead before the market sees real strength again.

But to put things in to perspective, the bottom in the last cycle was around $2,500 in 2018. Now we are talking about a likely bottom around $22k. You will see everyone freaking out on social medial. Even if we drop in to the teens, lets say $17.5k...we would be x7 in 4 years and everyone will tell you the sky is falling.

Understand the 4 year cycle which is driven by the halving and it starts to make sense. Yet people will likely still start buying when things start rolling in 2024, and even the peaks in 2025.

Probably diminishing returns as the market grows in size, but I imagine 4 years from now people are tearing their hair out as Bitcoin "crashes" to $50k or so. Having bought at $100-150k I am sure it will seem awful, and the narrative will be no different from what it is now.

[Hammer]

One more key point I learnt. Don't hold alt coins in a bear market. They will bleed against Bitcoin. Alt coins will not show strength until Bitcoin does. So plenty of time to get in to them. They go down harder, and rise faster.

There is a real chance some of these alt coins don't make the next bull market. They could be replaced by superior technology or collapse Luna style. Worth the gamble in maybe a year from now IMO, but right now the risk reward doesn't work for me.

Good chance we see Bitcoin lose 30% or so this year, that would likely mean 50%+ for even the larger cap alts such as Solana or Cardano. More for smaller cap alts. As the bull run gets closer I suspect we see new projects take a shot at those high cap alts. Who knows how that ends up for them.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Hammer

I think the term cryptocurrency is very misleading, the future of almost all of these assets are not as a currency. Most never intended to be.

Honest question; what do you think the future is, if not as a currency?

To my way of thinking, that's the only way they can even pretend to have actual value. This isn't like owning stock in a company that produces goods and services. If Bitcoin isn't a currency, what is it and why should anyone place any value on it, ever?

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Honest question; what do you think the future is, if not as a currency?

To my way of thinking, that's the only way they can even pretend to have actual value. This isn't like owning stock in a company that produces goods and services. If Bitcoin isn't a currency, what is it and why should anyone place any value on it, ever?

Great question! I think the beanie baby response above might be the best comparable.

[Hammer]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Honest question; what do you think the future is, if not as a currency?

To my way of thinking, that's the only way they can even pretend to have actual value. This isn't like owning stock in a company that produces goods and services. If Bitcoin isn't a currency, what is it and why should anyone place any value on it, ever?

I guess the only reason anything has value, is because people agree it has value. Between ourselves we establish a market value for something.

To answer the question more directly, I would suggest Bitcoin should be viewed as a store of value. Perhaps in a similar vein to a precious metal. As the world as moved online it seems that physically storing a precious metal is cumbersome and outdated. No doubt there is a generational divide, people hate change. It seems to me people like to fall back on their experience and knowledge of the world as it was, rather than what it is now. You won't find too many young people buying gold. I think the market cap of gold is around 12 trillion, to Bitcoin's half a trillion. As time goes buy I suspect that gap closes.

One huge problem with any store of value has been increasing supply. We are seeing it now with fiat currency in particular, and to a lesser extent with metals. They can be mined, and increase the supply, which decreases the value. There will only ever be 21 million Bitcoin (around 19 million are currently mined). Less actually, as some are lost and will be gone forever.

One major difference between Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is that Bitcoin is decentralized. Nobody owns it. No CEO, who impose choices or future directions, or skims profits. It runs on a blockchain, every transaction is available for everyone to see. Simple and fair.

It was designed in such a way for the price to go up over time, due to the Bitcoin halving (halving the supply that hits the market every 4 years). But with diminishing returns of growth. With that comes diminishing volatility. Its still fairly high growth/high volatility, but much less so than it was. In time things will become a lot more boring.

It's possible that down the line it could be replaced by a Bitcoin 2.0. However every project that comes out has a CEO who wants to make money, which kills the threat to Bitcoin. Bitcoin has that first mover advantage, it just seems an almost perfectly designed concept.

Most of the media don't seem to understand the 4 year cycle (dictated by the halving). You read headlines of its crashed etc. The point they miss is where in the cycle we are. Look up a chart, and go back 4 years at any point. It put things in to context. Most people don't get it, they buy at the wrong point in the cycle. When everyone else is talking about Bitcoin.

But this won't last forever, the growth. Things will start to flatline over time. It will become more of a store of value than an investment. Who knows if it will pass the test of time, but for now it is working as intended.

It is currently my 3rd largest holding behind Tesla and Google, and this year the plan is for it to move to 2nd. I have pretty high diversification so it might be 15% of my portfolio by year end.

[albionmoonlight]

Sorry about the size. This is a guy telling everyone to calm down about Celsius freezing withdrawals because it is probably just a liquidity crisis.

When a liquidity crisis is the good interpretation of what's happening, then you are several steps past fucked.

[flere-imsaho]

Haha.

[Edward64]

Sounds like a "run on the banks".

I guess another good reason to store stuff in cold wallets?

[Hammer]

I grabbed another 0.5 btc at $22.8k. Straight to the cold wallet until 2025. Great opportunity. Hoping to see prices in the teens but couldn't take the risk that it doesn't happen.