Small Game - Vanilla WW (Village Wins) - Page 2

Lathum · 08-04-2009, 10:13 AM

Happy day!

Lathum · 08-04-2009, 11:26 AM

Vote Danny

not a fan of a seer reveal.

nfg22 · 08-04-2009, 12:20 PM

I like Lathum. I hate the Bulls.

VOTE J23

claphamsa · 08-04-2009, 01:09 PM

hey all! finally got it fixed! stupid firewall :P

KWhit · 08-04-2009, 01:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Clap is his own technical issue. If you talk to him, ask him if he's asked out that girl from the Metro yet. If he hasn't, then I may have to vote him.

He's not a technical issue. He's some far programmer, I think.

KWhit · 08-04-2009, 01:40 PM

It's awfully quiet in here today. I'm used to the huge games with crazy rulesets that give us stuff to talk about even on day one.

J23 · 08-04-2009, 01:49 PM

I'm also a vanilla villager, like all but 4(?) of us.

With nothing to go on, I'll guess I will just simply retaliate.

Vote nfg22

claphamsa · 08-04-2009, 01:59 PM

vote kwhit

no making fun of me!

EagleFan · 08-04-2009, 02:34 PM

As of post 58:

Danny 1 - Lathum (52)
J23 1 - nfg22 (53)
nfg22 1 - J23 (57)
KWhit 1 - claphamsa (58)

Danny · 08-04-2009, 03:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

Vote Danny

not a fan of a seer reveal.

Kidding me right? Look at the logic I laid out in an 8 player game in which the seer would be guaranteed protection. Furthermore, if the game is 4-2, the wolves then have at least a 25% chance of knocking off the seer that night, that's if it even matters as we will be flying in blind and have a much lower % of catching a wolf and will be more likely to lose the game on day 2. A seer reveal gives us a much better chance at extending the game which is what we need.

Danny · 08-04-2009, 03:20 PM

At this point it is conjecture though before we see what happens day 1, things need to flow the a certain way, but I stand by that a seer reveal which clears 2 people with 6 left is well worth it.

Danny · 08-04-2009, 03:22 PM

I'm normally not one to make a retaliatory vote, but I just can't see what Lathum is seeing right now, so I will vote him pending further explanation.

Vote Lathum

PurdueBrad · 08-04-2009, 03:28 PM

Wow, so votes on 5 different people, sheesh. My d1 vote will go to KWhit, it's been a while since we've played in the same game. Good to see you:

vote KWhit

PurdueBrad · 08-04-2009, 03:28 PM

Claphamsa, before that vote is set in stone, have you asked out that girl from work yet?

claphamsa · 08-04-2009, 03:50 PM

no, I havent seen her! were not in the same building

PurdueBrad · 08-04-2009, 03:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by claphamsa

no, I havent seen her! were not in the same building

Hmmm, okay, it can slide...for now!

J23 · 08-04-2009, 04:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

At this point it is conjecture though before we see what happens day 1, things need to flow the a certain way, but I stand by that a seer reveal which clears 2 people with 6 left is well worth it.

If there is a bad lynch on day 1, that would leave it 6-2 as you mentioned. If the seer is not in danger of being lynched, that's only a 20% (or 25% chance if the second lynch goes badly)of being killed the next night. Is the risk worth waiting an extra night for scanning an additional person?

You're potentially risking two reveals since it isn't easy to hint at who is cleared and who is a wolf without giving away your role.

Also, did the cunning wolf make it in? That would make the scan really only reliable if it hits the other wolf, and thus perhaps a bit less of a vital role in the game.

Lathum · 08-04-2009, 05:07 PM

I just think Danny is playing the helpful wolf role

Danny · 08-04-2009, 06:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by J23

If there is a bad lynch on day 1, that would leave it 6-2 as you mentioned. If the seer is not in danger of being lynched, that's only a 20% (or 25% chance if the second lynch goes badly)of being killed the next night. Is the risk worth waiting an extra night for scanning an additional person?

You're potentially risking two reveals since it isn't easy to hint at who is cleared and who is a wolf without giving away your role.

Also, did the cunning wolf make it in? That would make the scan really only reliable if it hits the other wolf, and thus perhaps a bit less of a vital role in the game.

Your numbers are off. It's 6-2 right now, a bad day 1 leaves it as 4-2, at that point we are in end game anyway and need all the info we can get. Plus the % is 25% because the wolves are not going to kill themselves and there are four villagers left. I really can't see any scenario where it would be a bad idea for the seer to reveal unless we get a wolf today which changes things quite a bit.

Danny · 08-04-2009, 06:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

I just think Danny is playing the helpful wolf role

Well, If I was a wolf, I probably would be doing that yes. Regardless if you think I am a wolf, the analysis is sound.

Danny · 08-04-2009, 06:21 PM

And so far Lathum, I read your play as trying to add confusion with the BG disagreement and now the seer. I also think in a game this small with a few relatively new players that you would want me out of the game early if you were a wolf.

Danny · 08-04-2009, 06:34 PM

I'll be around for the next 30-45 minutes or so and then will be out until deadline. I don't see me changing my vote at this point unless Lathum comes on so I can hear his line of thinking on my analysis other than he thinks I am being a helpful wolf.

Lathum · 08-04-2009, 06:56 PM

unvote Danny
Vote KWhit

need to break up this logjam

Danny · 08-04-2009, 07:01 PM

Hopefully Kwhit checks in we make this a race and not a run away.

J23 · 08-04-2009, 07:18 PM

I'll do what I can to make it a two horse race.

Unvote nfg22
Vote Claphamsa

Danny · 08-04-2009, 07:24 PM

That doesn't really change much though, Clap has no votes.

Danny · 08-04-2009, 07:37 PM

PB. what are your thoughts?

J23 · 08-04-2009, 07:39 PM

oops, I read the vote count wrong. I'll wait and throw it wherever.

unvote Claphamsa

Danny · 08-04-2009, 07:42 PM

We could make this a Lathum/Kwhit race, I think that's a solid day 1 race.

Danny · 08-04-2009, 07:55 PM

Hmmm, I would think that if Lathum was not a wolf, the wolves would have looked to establish him as the second candidate and then shift the blame to me for the pressure I put on him.

I'd really like to see Lathum a part of this run off.

EagleFan · 08-04-2009, 07:59 PM

As of post 79:

J23 1 - nfg22 (53)
KWhit 3 - claphamsa (58), PurdueBrad (63), Lathum (73)
Lathum 1 - Danny (62)

Lathum · 08-04-2009, 07:59 PM

Danny, you are really pinging me right now pushing so hard. You said earlier if I was a wolf I would want you out, the same can be said for you about me.

Why so interested in me day 1 when all things are equal?

PurdueBrad · 08-04-2009, 08:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

PB. what are your thoughts?

Sorry Danny, I had stepped away. In a small game like this, day 1 will be vital for vote analysis. I obviously have no read but don't love that KWhit hasn't been back yet. It's day 1 and there was only one person I wouldn't have voted for on D1 and that was the new guy, J23. With the second vote on KWhit, I know that if he's good I will look bad but I think I would've looked worse throwing a sixth candidate out there. So, we'll see.

As for what I've seen today, I would guess, and this is a guess based on numbers, that there may be a wolf between Danny and Lathum. They are definitely playing off of each other but it's either two villagers butting heads or a wolf laying early suspicion on a villager and the villager responding to that. I think this is pretty much what you are establishing in your post as well Danny.

I guess that's what I've got, not a ton on day 1.

Lathum · 08-04-2009, 08:01 PM

dola- and if Danny wanted to make it a race he would vote J23 and make it tighter, not campaign against me.

Also, if I am a wolf why unvote Danny, especialy since I know KWhit is going to have to protect himself with his vote.

Danny · 08-04-2009, 08:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

Danny, you are really pinging me right now pushing so hard. You said earlier if I was a wolf I would want you out, the same can be said for you about me.

Why so interested in me day 1 when all things are equal?

Just the initial exchanged pinged me as different from you as a villager. You're right I could vote J23 to make it a two man race. I've kind of avoided that because he is new, but I guess we really can't avoid that too much since we have so few days. I get to stay later then I thought, but not until deadline, so I will see what happens here in the next 10-15

Danny · 08-04-2009, 08:09 PM

Has Jets checked in yet?

PurdueBrad · 08-04-2009, 08:11 PM

I saw Jets on *I think* but I don't recall a post.

PurdueBrad · 08-04-2009, 08:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JetsIn06

Checking in.

Yeah, here at 1:03 AM.

Danny · 08-04-2009, 08:12 PM

So we have two players not really checked in, and one with internet problems.

Danny · 08-04-2009, 08:12 PM

Ah ok, so he did check in

PurdueBrad · 08-04-2009, 08:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

So we have two players not really checked in, and one with internet problems.

Who hasn't checked in?

Danny · 08-04-2009, 08:13 PM

Kwhit

Danny · 08-04-2009, 08:13 PM

Nevermind, he did too, I just miss both his and Jets 1 post.

PurdueBrad · 08-04-2009, 08:15 PM

Everybody has checked in, just three votes out there: Jets, J23, and KWhit.

Danny · 08-04-2009, 08:17 PM

I have to get going now. I don't really like doing this, but this needs to not be a run away and Lathum has had no support yet.

Unvote Lathum
Vote J23

Danny · 08-04-2009, 08:19 PM

I normally never vote a new player day 1, but it's too small of a game to let that get in the way here. I hope you play in a big game J23, so I can not vote you on day 1

nfg22 · 08-04-2009, 08:27 PM

hmm...
Im open to changing my vote. I think we have one wolf between Lathum and Danny.

Not to say J23 isnt a wolf but I dont want to be the one who started the run on the new guy.

EagleFan · 08-04-2009, 08:28 PM

As of post 96:

J23 2 - nfg22 (53), Danny (95)
KWhit 3 - claphamsa (58), PurdueBrad (63), Lathum (73)

claphamsa · 08-04-2009, 08:28 PM

ok, just finished painting! man did i make a mess, gonna catch up!

claphamsa · 08-04-2009, 08:29 PM

ok thanks for the count! now we also have 3 no votes?

08-04-2009, 01:09 PM	#54
claphamsa Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: non white trash MD	hey all! finally got it fixed! stupid firewall :P __________________ Dominating Warewolf for 0 games! GIT R DUN!!!

08-04-2009, 01:59 PM	#58
claphamsa Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: non white trash MD	vote kwhit no making fun of me! __________________ Dominating Warewolf for 0 games! GIT R DUN!!!

08-04-2009, 02:34 PM	#59
EagleFan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA	As of post 58: Danny 1 - Lathum (52) J23 1 - nfg22 (53) nfg22 1 - J23 (57) KWhit 1 - claphamsa (58) Last edited by EagleFan : 08-04-2009 at 02:34 PM. Reason: font color

08-04-2009, 03:50 PM	#65
claphamsa Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: non white trash MD	no, I havent seen her! were not in the same building __________________ Dominating Warewolf for 0 games! GIT R DUN!!!

08-04-2009, 08:28 PM	#98
EagleFan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA	As of post 96: J23 2 - nfg22 (53), Danny (95) KWhit 3 - claphamsa (58), PurdueBrad (63), Lathum (73) Last edited by EagleFan : 08-04-2009 at 08:29 PM.

08-04-2009, 11:26 AM	#52
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	Vote Danny not a fan of a seer reveal.

08-04-2009, 12:20 PM	#53
nfg22 College Benchwarmer Join Date: Mar 2004	I like Lathum. I hate the Bulls. VOTE J23

08-04-2009, 01:40 PM	#56
KWhit Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Conyers GA	It's awfully quiet in here today. I'm used to the huge games with crazy rulesets that give us stuff to talk about even on day one.

08-04-2009, 01:49 PM	#57
J23 College Benchwarmer Join Date: Jul 2009	I'm also a vanilla villager, like all but 4(?) of us. With nothing to go on, I'll guess I will just simply retaliate. Vote nfg22

08-04-2009, 03:20 PM	#61
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	At this point it is conjecture though before we see what happens day 1, things need to flow the a certain way, but I stand by that a seer reveal which clears 2 people with 6 left is well worth it.

08-04-2009, 03:22 PM	#62
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	I'm normally not one to make a retaliatory vote, but I just can't see what Lathum is seeing right now, so I will vote him pending further explanation. Vote Lathum

08-04-2009, 03:28 PM	#63
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	Wow, so votes on 5 different people, sheesh. My d1 vote will go to KWhit, it's been a while since we've played in the same game. Good to see you: vote KWhit

08-04-2009, 05:07 PM	#68
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	I just think Danny is playing the helpful wolf role

08-04-2009, 06:21 PM	#71
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	And so far Lathum, I read your play as trying to add confusion with the BG disagreement and now the seer. I also think in a game this small with a few relatively new players that you would want me out of the game early if you were a wolf.

08-04-2009, 06:34 PM	#72
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	I'll be around for the next 30-45 minutes or so and then will be out until deadline. I don't see me changing my vote at this point unless Lathum comes on so I can hear his line of thinking on my analysis other than he thinks I am being a helpful wolf.

08-04-2009, 06:56 PM	#73
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	unvote Danny Vote KWhit need to break up this logjam

08-04-2009, 07:01 PM	#74
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	Hopefully Kwhit checks in we make this a race and not a run away.

08-04-2009, 07:18 PM	#75
J23 College Benchwarmer Join Date: Jul 2009	I'll do what I can to make it a two horse race. Unvote nfg22 Vote Claphamsa

08-04-2009, 07:24 PM	#76
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	That doesn't really change much though, Clap has no votes.

08-04-2009, 07:37 PM	#77
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	PB. what are your thoughts?

08-04-2009, 07:39 PM	#78
J23 College Benchwarmer Join Date: Jul 2009	oops, I read the vote count wrong. I'll wait and throw it wherever. unvote Claphamsa

08-04-2009, 07:42 PM	#79
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	We could make this a Lathum/Kwhit race, I think that's a solid day 1 race.

08-04-2009, 07:55 PM	#80
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	Hmmm, I would think that if Lathum was not a wolf, the wolves would have looked to establish him as the second candidate and then shift the blame to me for the pressure I put on him. I'd really like to see Lathum a part of this run off.

08-04-2009, 07:59 PM	#81
EagleFan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA	As of post 79: J23 1 - nfg22 (53) KWhit 3 - claphamsa (58), PurdueBrad (63), Lathum (73) Lathum 1 - Danny (62)

08-04-2009, 08:01 PM	#84
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	dola- and if Danny wanted to make it a race he would vote J23 and make it tighter, not campaign against me. Also, if I am a wolf why unvote Danny, especialy since I know KWhit is going to have to protect himself with his vote.

08-04-2009, 08:09 PM	#86
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	Has Jets checked in yet?

08-04-2009, 08:11 PM	#87
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	I saw Jets on I think but I don't recall a post.

08-04-2009, 08:12 PM	#89
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	So we have two players not really checked in, and one with internet problems.

08-04-2009, 08:13 PM	#92
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	Kwhit

08-04-2009, 08:15 PM	#94
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	Everybody has checked in, just three votes out there: Jets, J23, and KWhit.

08-04-2009, 08:17 PM	#95
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	I have to get going now. I don't really like doing this, but this needs to not be a run away and Lathum has had no support yet. Unvote Lathum Vote J23

08-04-2009, 08:19 PM	#96
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	I normally never vote a new player day 1, but it's too small of a game to let that get in the way here. I hope you play in a big game J23, so I can not vote you on day 1

08-04-2009, 08:27 PM	#97
nfg22 College Benchwarmer Join Date: Mar 2004	hmm... Im open to changing my vote. I think we have one wolf between Lathum and Danny. Not to say J23 isnt a wolf but I dont want to be the one who started the run on the new guy.

08-04-2009, 08:29 PM	#100
claphamsa Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: non white trash MD	ok thanks for the count! now we also have 3 no votes? __________________ Dominating Warewolf for 0 games! GIT R DUN!!!

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