POTUS 2016 General Election Discussion Thread

[molson]

I didn't think we'd get into the personal merits of George Clooney's wife in the presidential election thread until at least page 4 or so.

[sabotai]

Originally Posted by molson

I didn't think we'd get into the personal merits of George Clooney's wife in the presidential election thread until at least page 4 or so.

I had $25 on page 5.

[cuervo72]

Ok, she may be part of the Druze sect, but is [mis]identified as Muslim on Wiki.

At any rate, she has been labeled as being anti-Israel. "Amal Alamuddin: George Clooney's Anti-Israel Druze Arab Chick." "George Clooney’s Anti-Israel Fiancée Appointed to U.N. Gaza Probe." So if not actually Muslim, perceived as in league with them.

(Or yeah, what flere pointed out a couple of hours ago.)

[Toddzilla]

[Dutch]

Ok, she may be part of the Druze sect, but is [mis]identified as Muslim on Wiki.

At any rate, she has been labeled as being anti-Israel. "Amal Alamuddin: George Clooney's Anti-Israel Druze Arab Chick." "George Clooney’s Anti-Israel Fiancée Appointed to U.N. Gaza Probe." So if not actually Muslim, perceived as in league with them.

(Or yeah, what flere pointed out a couple of hours ago.)

So basically, you were wrong but ultimately right because...racism.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by sabotai

I had $25 on page 5.

I guess you can't win Amal

[PilotMan]

That was good Steve, that was very good.

My point is that Clooney, as dashing, handsome and rich as he is, just isn't good enough to be president because he lacks a certain orange hued skin tone or the ability to, you know, make up crazy shit to get people excited enough to vote for him. #notarealcandidate

[NobodyHere]

Everyone should just relax and breathe

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by Dutch

So basically, you were wrong but ultimately right because...racism.

Not really, and I don't know what flere added, though I can guess from the reaction that it was his usual shtick where I'm concerned (it's fun having a personal troll).

It's tangentially related in that it's been reported on several occasions that she and her family are antisemitic. But I'm more reacting to the instant assumption that if someone doesn't agree with you, it must be because of race because one couldn't possibly have a reasonable objection. And a little funny because while all the guesses were about racism, none were correct.

The issue itself is silly. What's there to debate? Maybe the accuracy of the reports, but that's really hard to do from here. The issue itself with her family is the reports themselves. It's not like debating political policy. What was predictable and disappointing was the reaction from the left simply to saying that I don't respect the family. I couldn't possibly have a rational reason - it must be blind racist hatred because I'm not on the left.

[JPhillips]

You react to the "left" like me claiming everything Jon says is the opinion of everyone on the "right".

[AENeuman]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

from the left simply to saying that I don't respect the family. I couldn't possibly have a rational reason - it must be blind racist hatred because I'm not on the left.

so which is it? Do you have a personal troll or does everyone on the left hate you and your ideas?

I hope you can see how turning one posters comments into a general statement about all posters (on the left) is absurd and foolish (despite being typical of what is happening all over).

I think your analysis and ideas are good and I am grateful for your political contributions. If anything, I respect you less because of your tv show preferences

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by AENeuman

so which is it? Do you have a personal troll or does everyone on the left hate you and your ideas?

I hope you can see how turning one posters comments into a general statement about all posters (on the left) is absurd and foolish (despite being typical of what is happening all over).

I think your analysis and ideas are good and I am grateful for your political contributions. If anything, I respect you less because of your tv show preferences

I think I only have one troll here. Certainly the board (from the political polls) leans more left than average, but most of you can separate ideology from personal stuff. There is far too much identity politics these days, though.

But it is a left thing these days to try and shout down dissent with racist accusations (and ironic that my reasons for not respecting the Alamuddin family are reports of racism - in other words, I completely agree that race is a poor excuse to dislike someone). So I was quick to jump on Cuervo because it was what I expected when I posted that I just didn't agree with Pilot's assertion that her family was respectable. Apologies if you are on the left and felt Cuervo shouldn't have done that and thus I am tarring you with too broad a brush. I was "setting a trap," so to speak, to make a point. Not always the best course of action, but I'm hardly perfect myself.

And WTF? The Facts of Life is an underrated classic.

[cuervo72]

FWIW, I included Muslim because from what I've gathered in the MONSTER Middle East thread from years ago and a few other threads that Jim is pretty darned pro-Israel. So if someone is Muslim* it's not a leap to assumed they might be perceived as anti-Israeli.

Also FWIW, "Muslim" isn't a race, and I don't believe I implied that it was one.


* Which she may not be so yes, I posted incorrect info.

[Solecismic]

But that's exactly the point - you remember something you don't like about a person (pro-Israel's self-determination in this case) and you assume racism or some similar -ism. That you don't even see the problem with that assumption is a problem with many on the left these days.

Why in the world would I dislike a family simply because they are or aren't Islamic? I know I've posted in other political threads that Islamophobia is bad because the overwhelming percentage of Muslims do not support terrorism. And I know I've been fairly negative about Trump since the beginning of his candidacy. Why doesn't that count, too, when you're preparing that knee-jerk response? You flat out accused me of being a racist - and you were so anxious to jump in with that nasty accusation that didn't even get the religion right.

[molson]

What are your assumptions about Clooney's wife's antisemitism based on? I've never heard about that but feel like you should back if up if you're taking this position about what assumptions others make about you. I can understand it being frustrating when someone assumes you're anti-Muslim, but aren't you doing the same kind of thing with her? (Or is there something concrete out there regarding her views?).

[cuervo72]

Where do I in plain words accuse you of being racist? Having a bias against a religion, yes. And I may have been overzealous in that (rather pithy) assumption. But I don't think it's a stretch or necessarily an accusation of racism to think that someone who is pro-Israeli to the extent that you seem to be wouldn't be a little leery of a Lebanese Muslim (not someone raised in Dearborn, but born in Lebanon).

Also, it's not that I'm even anti-pro-Israeli. I'm not really all that enamored with either side in that disagreement, I think they've both been guilty of wrongs. Just the fact that I've remembered that stance...I mean, who's the one who is labeling people and seeing "leftists" around every corner? Obviously you're making characterizations of posters you haven't agreed with.

[digamma]

Yeah the doxing is kind of lame, even though many of us know your real name.

I also think that it is ironic that the complaint is that "the left" focuses on identity politics, when I think there's a fairly solid argument that policy initiatives of "the right" have sought for years to divide and place people into categories. English first, immigration crack downs, gender and sexual orientation identity based policies and voting laws are just a few examples. While I think the R word is thrown around way too much, I don't think it should be a shock when historically marginalized groups fire back with labeling after being labeled for years.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Not really, and I don't know what flere added, though I can guess from the reaction that it was his usual shtick where I'm concerned (it's fun having a personal troll).

Right back at ya, baby.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

just google her name and there are plenty of stories to read. Enough that where's there's smoke, there's fire with that family.

You hate being stereotyped by the left and consistently ask people to be judged on their own merits, yet in this situation you're happy to use aggregated gossip to pass judgment on a person whose politics happen to disagree with your own.

Can you not see the hypocrisy, maybe?

[JPhillips]

“Politicians have used you and stolen your votes. They have given you nothing,” Trump said. “I will give you everything. I will give you what you’ve been looking for for 50 years. I’m the only one.”

How can people fall for this nonsense?

[Butter]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Molson, just google her name and there are plenty of stories to read. Enough that where's there's smoke, there's fire with that family. As I said, I understand that others will feel differently. It's a pointless argument because it amounts to a "No, that report is not true and this report is true," back-and-forth thing. And I don't want to have a long argument about what is and what isn't antisemitism (the whole 3-D test and such).

Then why even fucking bring it up if you are not willing to back your assertions with anything but "there are reports" that the family does some unknown thing? I mean, what now we have to research YOUR arguments for you? Yeah, sounds good.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

It's a pointless argument because it amounts to a "No, that report is not true and this report is true," back-and-forth thing.

This, specifically, is my problem with you. For years you have posted unsupported assertions and then complained when people cited facts undermining them. To the point that you felt you were being trolled and put me on ignore.

You have absolutely zero intellectual honesty.

[flere-imsaho]

Relevant.

Also note that on the next page the conversation continues with Greg and some others, who are willing to engage on the actual facts.

[Dutch]

People sure are passionate about Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. 'Murica!

[flere-imsaho]

This is like foreplay before getting to the real thing, Dutch.

[Dutch]

Oh, shit, let me get my popcorn ready.

[cuervo72]

/tries to figure how popcorn could factor into foreplay...

[molson]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

How can people fall for this nonsense?

I think it's fairly similar to what Sanders is selling now and what Obama was selling in '08. Trump just has a different manner of speaking that is pretty unique for a major politician in the U.S. - unpolished, brash, mean-spirited. But a lot of us were similarly exasperated when Obama was charming the pants of people in '08 with catchphrases and vague promises and when Sanders promises that he'll fix everything and that we'll become Denmark by 2020.

(Edit: And I like how the Obama presidency turned out, but I still think his '08 campaign was filled with Trump-like bullshit and dishonest emotional manipulation of voters, and that we really should have been able to predict where we were headed in 2016 in terms of what kinds of candidates appealed to us.)

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

/tries to figure how popcorn could factor into foreplay...

Well, now I'm intrigued.

Originally Posted by molson

I think it's fairly similar to what Sanders is selling now and what Obama was selling in '08. Trump just has a different manner of speaking that is pretty unique for a major politician in the U.S. - unpolished, brash, mean-spirited. But a lot of us were similarly exasperated when Obama was charming the pants of people in '08 with catchphrases and vague promises and when Sanders promises that he'll fix everything and that we'll become Denmark by 2020.

(Edit: And I like how the Obama presidency turned out, but I still think his '08 campaign was filled with Trump-like bullshit and manipulation, and that we really should have been able to predict where we were headed in 2016 in terms of what kinds of candidates appeal to us.)

All politicians pander to some extent. I think Trump & Sanders are pandering more than usual.

I agree there's a similarity between how people affixed their (often not reasonable) hopes & dreams on Obama on 2008 to how people are doing the same with Trump & Sanders now.

But, a difference, I think, is that while Obama was, as you point out, vague about his promises, you have to admit that Trump and Sanders have been pretty specific on a number of points. Points that can't really be realized when in office (though maybe the wall could happen).

[QuikSand]

Interesting take on the #OkayIGuessTrump movement within the GOP

The most depressing moment of the 2016 race - The Washington Post

I think it's super-interesting who is "all in" denying and castigating Trump, and who is hedging bets. I honestly do wonder what it would mean for the party if a sizable fraction of its movers and shakers sit this one out and he goes on to win anyway. The internet makes these paper trails so much easier to follow than decades ago.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

/tries to figure how popcorn could factor into foreplay...

The popcorn is in preparation for what comes next. I know, I know, more to think about...

[digamma]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Interesting take on the #OkayIGuessTrump movement within the GOP

The most depressing moment of the 2016 race - The Washington Post

I think it's super-interesting who is "all in" denying and castigating Trump, and who is hedging bets. I honestly do wonder what it would mean for the party if a sizable fraction of its movers and shakers sit this one out and he goes on to win anyway. The internet makes these paper trails so much easier to follow than decades ago.

It is interesting. I do think it falls into the camp of those who are quick to dismiss the Trump movement as having no chance. I admit to being a popcorn watcher of the Trump show during the primary process, but now that he's one of two serious candidates, his chances frighten me more than a little bit. I say that as one who has definite questions about Clinton as a candidate and president, but can easily come to the conclusion that there's no real alternative in supporting Trump (and not ideologically aligned enough with the Libertarian party to go that route).

[molson]

I don't think the libertarian party is quite there yet.

James Weeks Strips at Libertarian Party National Convention Drops out of race for Chairman 5/29/16 - YouTube

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by digamma

It is interesting. I do think it falls into the camp of those who are quick to dismiss the Trump movement as having no chance. I admit to being a popcorn watcher of the Trump show during the primary process, but now that he's one of two serious candidates, his chances frighten me more than a little bit. I say that as one who has definite questions about Clinton as a candidate and president, but can easily come to the conclusion that there's no real alternative in supporting Trump (and not ideologically aligned enough with the Libertarian party to go that route).

At the end of the day, there is something to the Establishment. Maybe they aren't as corrupt as we've been led to believe...

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by lighthousekeeper

Would a strong Libertarian party showing hurt Trump or Clinton more?

I would think Trump only because I don't think there's hardly any Democratic - Libertarian crossover. I could be really wrong on that, though.

[cuervo72]

I would think it would hurt Trump too -- I think there are more Republicans looking for a third option than there are Democrats, and I think they are more likely to land on one. I think most of the Dems will eventually fall in line.

[molson]

So Clinton and Trump are polling very close right now, both in the national polls, and in the states (relative to how we'd expect they'd do in those states). Is this a toss-up race right now? The online gambling odds and predictit still have Clinton as a comfortable favorite, but Trump has been underestimated by gamblers and commentators since the beginning. Are we really at maybe 50% or greater likelihood of President Trump?

[flere-imsaho]

Pure conjecture here, but I don't think we can really take anything from the polls until at least after the conventions. Back before the primaries 538 pointed out that the polls (for the primaries at least) don't really have any validity until the last 2 weeks before the first primary because of the large % of people who haven't made up their mind until then.

Having said that, I think anyone who categorically thinks Trump does not have a chance is wrong. We'll know more maybe after the conventions, but I suspect he absolutely has a chance.

Edit: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/art...in_130676.html

[flere-imsaho]

Polls (for comparison):

Here's 2012: RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama

2008: RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama

Although I don't think that clears anything up, to be honest. Trump is basically right where McCain and Romney were on June 1st.

As we said with the GOP Primary, it's all about whether his polls hold up. Given that the only evidence we have is that they did (for the primary) I think you have to assume for now that they will (for the general), until something else hard & factual comes along.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by molson

So Clinton and Trump are polling very close right now, both in the national polls, and in the states (relative to how we'd expect they'd do in those states). Is this a toss-up race right now? The online gambling odds and predictit still have Clinton as a comfortable favorite, but Trump has been underestimated by gamblers and commentators since the beginning. Are we really at maybe 50% or greater likelihood of President Trump?

I don't think so, but I've been wrong before about Trump.

We have two extremely unpopular candidates. One is facing a trial over what seems like a scam university and the other really does have serious problems ahead over the email issue.

Assigning odds seems impossible. You can still get 30-to-1 on Biden.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

I would think Trump only because I don't think there's hardly any Democratic - Libertarian crossover. I could be really wrong on that, though.

You would be quite surprised then. The GOP aligns in theory with the Libertarian party on economic principles but basically zero in practice. However the Democratic Party aligns quite a bit more on social issues in both theory and practice with the Libertarians. I think I have read Johnson could hurt Hillary worse... Goes to search Internet for link.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by panerd

However the Democratic Party aligns quite a bit more on social issues in both theory and practice with the Libertarians.

While I could believe this, I had been under the impression that actual voting crossover was mainly restricted to Republicans.

I think I have read Johnson could hurt Hillary worse... Goes to search Internet for link.

This is what I'm talking about. I'm open to seeing some sort of analysis which indicates potential crossover, but I haven't actually seen it. If you find something, it'll definitely be interesting.

[molson]

There seems to be a lot of Sanders supporters who see Clinton as the world's worst human and are just deciding between Trump, a third party candidate, or staying home. There's no way to translate that vocal sentiment into what they'll actually do in November though.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

While I could believe this, I had been under the impression that actual voting crossover was mainly restricted to Republicans.



This is what I'm talking about. I'm open to seeing some sort of analysis which indicates potential crossover, but I haven't actually seen it. If you find something, it'll definitely be interesting.

Yeah I think Ron Paul is the reason in recent years though Sanders seemed to have a youthful groundswell as well that might fire back at Hillary through Johnson instead of Trump. My five minute search turned up quite a few links but on further review they all basically push an agenda... Sites like Britbert and Fox News saying "don't worry Johnson will pull just as much from Hillary as trump" while liberal sites saying the exact opposite. The polls with and without Johnson though seem to take 3-4 percent from each candidate for what it's worth.

[larrymcg421]

At the local level, Libertarians seem to pull more from the GOP than the Dems, but those libertarians are generally making a fiscal only approach to the campaign. I think Johnson has positioned himself more to the left than these libertarians and thus is better suited to steal from both sides. Of course, if he ever becomes a threat and makes the debates, I think it'll be easier for Hillary to pitch to disaffected Dems why Johnson shouldn't be a consideration than it will be for Trump to do the same thing.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

I don't think so, but I've been wrong before about Trump.

We have two extremely unpopular candidates. One is facing a trial over what seems like a scam university and the other really does have serious problems ahead over the email issue.

Assigning odds seems impossible. You can still get 30-to-1 on Biden.

The email is a political problem, but there is zero chance it becomes a legal problem. The recent State Department report basically said it was poor judgement, but everyone for years had been doing the same thing.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

The recent State Department report basically said it was poor judgement, but everyone for years had been doing the same thing.

Umm ... you do see kind of the flaw in this particular point as proof there's no legal issue, right?

Fox, guarding hen house, etc etc.

I mean, I don't actually expect anyone to actually do anything to her ... but given the circumstances a report from that particular quarter saying "there's nothing to see here" isn't exactly the most credible evidence either.

[JPhillips]

I won't get into whether there should be legal action as that debate would be fruitless for both of us. I'm just saying that there isn't going to be any legal action. One, the FBI would be extremely reticent to inject themselves into the campaign after the nominations and two, they aren't going to go down a road where they prosecute thirty of forty State employees over the past twenty years.

If they haven't done anything by now, they aren't going to do anything before the election other than maybe issue a stern report.

[molson]

Lazy negligent conduct isn't necessarily criminal. And in fact it's usually not. It's been frustrating to read all the "analysis" of whether she should be charged. You need to prove very specific things and specific intents to fit existing criminal statutes, especially for non-violent administration-related stuff like this. I haven't seen any analysis cite actual statutes and caselaw interpreting statutes. You can't charge based on morality, or, as a Salon.com columnist specifically called for, charge based on a political desire to see a different person as the party nominee for president.

[Dutch]

Well that's inspiring. She's not a criminal, just lazy and negligent. Perfect qualifications!