FOFC GroupThink 2024: We take over the (beloved) Arizona Cardinals

[QuikSand]

Okay... I'll try to add something useful here. The last regime was unwilling to "eat their vegetables" and commit to unexciting spots like the OL (until last draft). So, let's have a look at the state of the OL right now... 2023 performance ratings from PFF:



(the three ratings visible are overall offense, then pass block, run block)

Here's the OTC analysis of our cap/contract situation:
Arizona Cardinals Salary Cap | Over the Cap

So, from that I take away:

T Parris Johnson is still penciled in as a long term asset, first year was okay, tackles tend to put it together in years 2-4, so... one spot down.

Veteran DJ Humphries, 30, sadly trimmed from the screenshot, sorry, rated just barely better than Johnson. Mediocre grade for a guy who's considered solid. $23m cap number for 2024. I think it's in play either to consider him part of the short term plan, or to explore moving him and getting younger, especially in a deep OT draft.

C Froholdt, 27, is a standard replacement-level IOL, making $3.8m next year and probably worth it, at least on a roster with a ton of other needs. So, keeper, I reckon.

RG Hernandez kinda similar... performance last year was solid, but he's costing $5.3m next year. Open to arguments either way here.

LG feels wide open. Wilkinson and Colon were both subpar, and are both free agents. If we keep both C and RG occupied by known quantity veterans, then maybe a 3rd/4th round pick at guard makes sense for us?

[JPhillips]

Humphries only frees 9 mil or so in cap space, so I'm not sure he's worth cutting now, but he frees up almost 16 mil after June 1, so that seems enticing.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Humphries only frees 9 mil or so in cap space, so I'm not sure he's worth cutting now, but he frees up almost 16 mil after June 1, so that seems enticing.

One question with cap space though. Cap space to do what? It should never be an end to itself. One should always have some sort of a idea of what to do with it over the next couple of seasons.

[QuikSand]

So here's a strawman... team need appears to be interior DL. PFF says we might have something in young DT Roy Lopez, but little else of real value.

A top-of-market deal is likely coming for emerging star DT Justin Madubuike. It's going to take a lot of money and likely 4 years. Do we think that sort of move for us here, makes any sense?

I think JM is likely a good risk for a team in position to make such a move (thinking Houston, frex)... but with a losing record and a $50m QB, does it make sense for us here?

[QuikSand]

For easy reading, here's what OTC says is our overall 2024 cap situation:

Total Cap Liabilities: $218,364,582
Top 51: $196,020,670
Team Cap Space: $41,855,463

Offense: $126,647,216
Defense: $72,018,454
Special: $5,547,333

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

So here's a strawman... team need appears to be interior DL. PFF says we might have something in young DT Roy Lopez, but little else of real value.

A top-of-market deal is likely coming for emerging star DT Justin Madubuike. It's going to take a lot of money and likely 4 years. Do we think that sort of move for us here, makes any sense?

I think JM is likely a good risk for a team in position to make such a move (thinking Houston, frex)... but with a losing record and a $50m QB, does it make sense for us here?

I don't think we are close enough to make a move like that.

[JPhillips]

I'm only cutting DJ if I can draft a solid tackle, which seems very possible with the first round picks. It' less I want to cut him and more I don't need a 23 mil bench player and almost anything I spend the money on is a better option.

I think the Cards should absolutely look for a big FA pickup. They are going to bring in a lot of guys in the draft and they need high character and high achieving role models around the locker room. And in the NFC there's no reason why they can't be a playoff team next year.

[albionmoonlight]

Early buzz is that the other two big WRs past MHJr would normally be WR1 in most other drafts.

If MHJr goes in the top three, then I wonder if one of our former teams (NYG) might be enticed to trade up from 6 to 4 to grab the third QB.

That keeps us in position to draft one of the two other stud WRs and lets us pick up a little extra draft sugar.

Or, if the the QBs go 1-3, then MHJr still seems like the "don't overthink it" pick.

[albionmoonlight]

dola

Or how about this. Daniel Jones has $35,000,000 fully guaranteed base salary this year. The Cards have a lot of cap space.

The Cards trade #4 to the Giants for #6 and Daniel Jones and a future first (for taking Jones contract off their hands).

Cards get a decent backup for Murry. Giants can move on and start anew with a rookie.

The only catch is that the Cards pick at 4, so the Giants could not be guaranteed to get one of the three QBs there . . .

So close.

[CrimsonFox]

So when we win the superbowl, we should NOT have a parade.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

dola

Or how about this. Daniel Jones has $35,000,000 fully guaranteed base salary this year. The Cards have a lot of cap space.

.

But do the Cards have anyone worth keeping for big bucks?

[JPhillips]

If MHJ is gone before 4 what about the late first rounder to Cincy for Tee Higgins?

[CrimsonFox]

Got an idea. Order some WRs from temu

[stevew]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

dola

Or how about this. Daniel Jones has $35,000,000 fully guaranteed base salary this year. The Cards have a lot of cap space.

The Cards trade #4 to the Giants for #6 and Daniel Jones and a future first (for taking Jones contract off their hands).

Cards get a decent backup for Murry. Giants can move on and start anew with a rookie.

The only catch is that the Cards pick at 4, so the Giants could not be guaranteed to get one of the three QBs there . . .

So close.

What about something like-

Cards acquire Wilson, Jeudy and a Broncos 2nd for a 5th. The Broncos eat some amount of his guaranteed money(20 mil?) but not all of it. Wilson gets 2-3 million additional to accept the trade with the understanding he will be subsequently traded to a team of his choice. Arizona then gets a conditional 2025 4th for warehousing 20 mill or so retained salary on him in a trade when they ship him to Pitts or Min. Pick upgrades 1 round for Playoffs and elevates 1 more round for each playoff victory.

Cards end up with a usable WR, a second and an upside 2025 pick for 32 mil or so in cap space.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by stevew

What about something like-

...

Cards end up with a usable WR, a second and an upside 2025 pick for 32 mil or so in cap space.

I would be very interested in something like that, if we could use the cap space as a bargaining tool. I think it's far fetched, but i like the spirit a ton and this sort of setup especially. Jeudy still feels to me like he could be unlocked and is a nice buy low candidate for someone roughly where we are in the build-up cycle.

[QuikSand]

https://snipboard.io/bYOsca.jpg
(image was huge, so just the link now)

First full run through. The PFF engine really skews toward the guys they grade highly, so this tends to bias the picks a lot that way.

Anyway, MHJr first T Alt went at pick 3) then a lot of logicals - assuming top needs are OL, DI, and CB.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Got an idea. Order some WRs from temu

I've heard they dissolve in rain, much like everything else from temu.

[Thomkal]

The Athletic takes a look at the top 10 picks after the combine. The Cards actually have the most draft capital coming into the draft, so i'm not sure a trade back is in our best interest depending on what the trade is. It really looks like they are going for WR Harrison with the 4th pick-and if he's gone maybe an OL?


What did we learn at the NFL combine about teams with top-10 draft picks? - The Athletic

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

I've heard they dissolve in rain, much like everything else from temu.

If you order a QB from Temu you get Justin Fields

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

If you order a QB from Temu you get Justin Fields

Fields is more Goodwill, gently used, Temu would be Zach Wilson

[CrimsonFox]

I hear Russell Wilson is available. Someone said he plans to win the super bowl.

[Honolulu_Blue]

The Athletic polled a six NFL executives to create a mock draft for the first 10 picks. The picks for the Cards were: 2 for MHJ (WR), 2 for Joe Alt (T), and 2 for Dallas Turner (Edge).

So, they're split among what appears to be our beloved team's three top needs: WR, offensive line, and some juice on defense.

In the mock, they ended up taking Dallas Turner.

I've run a lot of PFF mock drafts with the Cards and have never really entertained Turner.

It could make sense, I guess. The edge class is pretty thin, especially compared to the WR class. I am not sure how good the tackles are outside of the first round, but it could be possible to get a starting tackle with that second first round pick.

[Thomkal]

They are all needs for the Cards, so going with the dreaded 'best player available' would seem to be in play here. I'm still thinking they are going to go with MHJ, but i know they have talked to a couple OL men at the top of their list.

[Thomkal]

cards open up free agency by signing CB Sean Murphy-Bunting bringing much needed help to the secondary and DT Bilal nichols who i'm not familar with

[QuikSand]

From PFF instant analysis:

DI JUSTIN JONES SIGNS WITH ARIZONA CARDINALS
2023 PFF Grade: 49.3 (107th/130)
2023 PFF WAR: -0.02 (179th)
Fit/need grade: A
Value grade: C-
Contract: Three years, $30.1 million ($10.33 million per year), $19.75 million total guaranteed
PFF projected contract: N/A
Jones brings a high motor and was the Bears’ Walter Payton Man of the Year nominee in 2023, always quick to talk some trash and energize the defense. Nonetheless, this payday dramatically outpaces his down-to-down production. He does have some occasional splash plays that illustrate what made him a Day 2 draft pick, but this is probably the deal we view as the most player-friendly signing so far this offseason.

CB SEAN MURPHY-BUNTING SIGNS WITH ARIZONA CARDINALS
2023 PFF Grade: 57.6 (89th/127)
2023 PFF WAR: -0.02 (201st)
Fit/need grade: A
Value grade: C-
Contract: Three years, $25.5 million ($8.5 million per year), $17.5 million total guaranteed
PFF projected contract: One year, $4 million, $3.25 million total guaranteed
With the added and important context that there were virtually zero free-agent options at cornerback not nearing 30 years old, it makes sense that Murphy-Bunting was able to cash in big time. The former No. 39 overall pick has good size at 6-foot and 195 pounds, and he recorded four interceptions to go along with nine more pass breakups over the past two seasons. Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon used to coach defensive backs, so he’ll try to tap into Murphy-Bunting's physical gifts in his third stop.

[QuikSand]

Did a mock draft for the Cards... with MHL off the board I dealt down with Chicago getting their 1st next year and still getting DE Turner at pick 9:

https://snipboard.io/XnlQkH.jpg

[JPhillips]

Not in love with the Jonah Williams deal, but I guess that takes OT off of the draft board.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Not in love with the Jonah Williams deal, but I guess that takes OT off of the draft board.

Yes and no-Cards also released T DJ Humphries who is recovering from a knee injury. So there was a need for a replacement there and I was reading about Williams that he has almost never been hurt-maybe missed 1 game? So if he can keep that up, could be a very good signing,

[Thomkal]

well this was unexpected-falcons trading desmond ridder to the Cards for WR Rondale Moore.

[Thomkal]

With this trade, I have to think the cards will draft a WR in round 1

[Honolulu_Blue]

All signs seem to point that way. It has to be WR or maybe tackle.

[GrantDawg]

You are very welcome to Ridder. The secret to him is only start him if you want to get your coach/OC fired.

[QuikSand]

Seems like WR in ink now. Yup. If not MHJr then just take whichever you you like best, or this year especially, maybe trade down a bit (again) and still do so.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

You are very welcome to Ridder. The secret to him is only start him if you want to get your coach/OC fired.

Too early for that in Arizona. Cards didn't really have a good option for a backup with rookie Tune looking pretty awful in his start last year. moore never really showed flashes that he was going to be a good wr, so maybe the change of scenery will help them both

[GrantDawg]

It is the right year for it. You are not going wrong with MHJ, Nabers or Odunze. Any of those three should be a solid choice.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Too early for that in Arizona. Cards didn't really have a good option for a backup with rookie Tune looking pretty awful in his start last year. moore never really showed flashes that he was going to be a good wr, so maybe the change of scenery will help them both

Ridder is a coaches son and seems to be very smart. He has an arm, he has speed, he just doesn't seem to have the ability to process fast enough for the league. He also just can't take a hit and hold on to the ball. IDK if that can be coached out of him, because I have heard arguments it just might be because of his arm length on his frame.

[albionmoonlight]

If Minnesota calls and offers Justin Jefferson straight up for the number four, and Jefferson and his agent want a market setting contract, but not star QB money, the Cardinals should jump on that, right?

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

If Minnesota calls and offers Justin Jefferson straight up for the number four, and Jefferson and his agent want a market setting contract, but not star QB money, the Cardinals should jump on that, right?

What about number 4 and your first next year?

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

If Minnesota calls and offers Justin Jefferson straight up for the number four, and Jefferson and his agent want a market setting contract, but not star QB money, the Cardinals should jump on that, right?

right

[JPhillips]

I'd have to really think about 30 mil per year or MHJ and 20 mil worth of FA. In terms of wins, how much of a difference would there be?

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I'd have to really think about 30 mil per year or MHJ and 20 mil worth ONE STARTING CALIBER LINEMAN. In terms of wins, how much of a difference would there be?

ftfy, $20M isn't what it used to be

[JPhillips]

I'd pick Jefferson over any of the other draft eligible receivers, I just think MHJ is as close to can't miss as we've seen. I'd be very surprised if he isn't a multiple All-Pro over his career. Given that, I'd have to really think about what I could do with him and the money over the next four years.

I also worry that Murray as QB limits the peak production of any WR.

[JPhillips]

Everybody seems to be agreeing that MHJ will be there at 4. That alone makes this draft a big winner for AZ.

[GrantDawg]

And if you want to trade down, there will be opportunities. The Vikings are going to be looking to move ahead of the Giants. The Cards are probably going to have the option between both of them and possibly another. If not you, then almost certainly the Chargers will.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

[QuikSand]

Did a 4-round mock draft for the Cards and was open to trading down... got what feels like quite a haul here:

12.
Laiatu Latu
EDGE UCLA

27.
Adonai Mitchell
WR Texas

35.
T.J. Tampa
CB Iowa State

66.
Kris Jenkins
DT Michigan

71.
Sedrick Van Pran-Granger
OC Georgia

90.
Jermaine Burton
WR Alabama

105.
MarShawn Lloyd
RB USC

2025 DEN 1st
2025 DEN 2nd

via Just a moment...

[QuikSand]

and another one with no trades:

4.
Marvin Harrison Jr.
WR Ohio State

27.
Johnny Newton
DT Illinois

35.
Christian Haynes
OG UConn

66.
Bralen Trice
EDGE Washington

71.
D.J. James
CB Auburn

90.
Audric Estime
RB Notre Dame

104.
Josh Newton
CB TCU

[bhlloy]

I think Marshawn Lloyd is going to be a very, very productive NFL back if given the chance.

[albionmoonlight]

Getting that Denver 1st and 2nd could be a real gamechanger. Basically a repeat of CHI/CAR from this draft.

[GrantDawg]

That first mock draft is just fire. If they could get that and those picks, they would be golden.

[QuikSand]

Insane value using the PFF Mock Drafter, and just taking need-influenced BPA:



Absurd.