NFL Draft Thread 2011

[Blackadar]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

I think more of the point is how many great players have been passed on to find these upper mid QBs like Eli and Cutler.

along with how many early 1st round qbs have turned out to be busts.

If I have the #1 overall pick I am looking for something more than an upper mid tier qb.

What is the ceiling for Cam? If he reaches his potential will he be as good as Josh Freeman?

I'm not sure what you're getting at. There's no guarantees no matter what you do. Yeah, JaMarcus Russel is a bust. So was Courtney Brown. Tim Couch didn't do all that well. Ki-Jana Carter didn't either. Dan Wilkinson...Andre Bruce...Steve Entmann. If I count the last 25 years worth of non-QB #1 overall picks, I'm running about 50% hit and miss ratio. If I could the last 25 years worth of QB #1 overall picks, I'm running at about a 50% hit/miss ratio. There ain't no such thing as a sure thing.

What's the ceiling for Cam? I don't think anyone can tell at this stage. Hell, I don't think anyone knew the ceiling for Josh Freeman, who was considered a reach when he was selected in the first round.

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Well the top 4 were all super bowl champs which is the goal of most NFL teams.(Manning, Brady, Brees, Rodgers)

When we start getting deeper in the rankings we have a lot more debate on the order and a lot less super bowl champions qbs.

See, I think you're being purposely elusive here. I already posted the stats. You'll find that the majority of Super Bowls were won by QBs selected in the 1st round as well. The simple fact is that you're far, far more likely to find a good QB in the 1st round than any other position on the field. And a good QB is far, far more likely to lead to team success than any other position on the field.

[jbergey22]

What I find really interesting is one of the best QBs in the NFL at the moment was expected to go #1 overall in what was considered a weak QB class and slipped to 24th overall. I felt so bad for Rodgers because he was slipping for no apparent reason at the time. I am happy he got the last laugh athough I wish it was with a team other than with Green Bay.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Blackadar

See, I think you're being purposely elusive here. I already posted the stats. You'll find that the majority of Super Bowls were won by QBs selected in the 1st round as well. The simple fact is that you're far, far more likely to find a good QB in the 1st round than any other position on the field. And a good QB is far, far more likely to lead to team success than any other position on the field.

Well this of course is going to be true because teams reach for QBs in the 1st round and hand them the keys to the franchise and give them every chance to have success.

Look at Jimmy Clausen as an example. He was drafted in the 2nd round and got a half a year to prove himself now they are focusing on a different QB. Now look at Tim Couch and Alex Smith. They were given years to have success. The opportunity is there for 1st round picks while it isnt always there for later round picks. Again, I feel too many teams reach for QBs and pass on talented players at other position that would help them more down the road.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Well the top 4 were all super bowl champs which is the goal of most NFL teams.(Manning, Brady, Brees, Rodgers)

When we start getting deeper in the rankings we have a lot more debate on the order and a lot less super bowl champions qbs.

I didn't ask why you wanted to look at the Top 4, I asked why you wanted to look at 3 of the Top 4.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I didn't ask why you wanted to look at the Top 4, I asked why you wanted to look at 3 of the Top 4.

I was just stating an opinion that 3 out of the 4 best QBs were not taken early in the 1st round. I didnt think I was hiding Manning from that comment.

[gstelmack]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

If you don't think you have a build-around QB in this draft, fine, go somewhere else. But for crying out loud, you don't decide you're set at QB because you have pocket lint like Jimmy Claussen already on hand. I'm pretty much with Blackadar above.

I'm not trying to say Claussen and Pike are "it", but I am saying you need a bit more than the chance they've been given. Combined with Carolina having "pocket lint" at receiver, catching tight ends, defensive line, defensive back, etc, and the number of QBs that have needed time to settle in (we don't know yet if Claussen is Rex Grossman or Drew Brees) especially without any sort of mentor and a coaching staff that wants to run the ball and for whom the passing game is an after-thought, I think they should be looking to fill a different gaping hole right now and revisit QB in a year or two.

Or maybe draft 3 more QBs and hope you finally hit one...

[Blackadar]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Well this of course is going to be true because teams reach for QBs in the 1st round and hand them the keys to the franchise and give them every chance to have success.

Look at Jimmy Clausen as an example. He was drafted in the 2nd round and got a half a year to prove himself now they are focusing on a different QB. Now look at Tim Couch and Alex Smith. They were given years to have success. The opportunity is there for 1st round picks while it isnt always there for later round picks. Again, I feel too many teams reach for QBs and pass on talented players at other position that would help them down the road.

That holds true of 1st round picks no matter what position. And it's not like Couch/Smith were entirely ineffective (aka JaMarcus Russell) - they're just not good or great like their draft position suggests. Not to mention both have somewhat extenuating circumstances (Couch getting pummeled his first few years and developing shoulder issues, Smith's constantly changing offensive coordinators).

I'm not going to argue that teams do reach for QBs...Akili Smith being a prime example in the 1999 draft. The reason is that QB is the most important position on the field and if you don't have a good one, you really don't have much of a chance of succeeding. That upper mid tier QB is usually far more important than an All-Pro at another position.

---

I've watched a fair amount of tape on Cam Newton this year. Physically, the guy can make every throw in the book. He's elusive, quick, fast, strong and wins...which is a biggie in my book. He has mechanical issues, but most are easily correctable footwork problems and I think he has an easy throwing motion. Given those footwork issues, he's still pretty damned accurate with his throws. I like the way he reacts to pocket pressure and game pressure. He commands the huddle and looks like he's genuinely having fun out there. He has the "it" factor, whatever it is. If you compare Cam Newton with Vince Young, you'll find Cam has a better YTA, more TDs, fewer Ints and higher completion percentage.

What I don't like are the things I can't find out. His offense was incredible simple at Auburn. When he was interviewed by Jon Gruden, Cam didn't seem to have a clue what Gruden was talking about at times. Now Gruden's lingo is extremely complicated (hence the reason he could never develop a QB himself and always picked up a veteran to run his offenses), but Cam looked lost. That's a major concern.

He didn't have to read defenses at Auburn and relied on his amazing physical skills. Even Mike Vick - who I consider the most amazing athlete to come into the NFL since Bo Jackson - couldn't get away with that.

I didn't like the fact he didn't look Gruden in the eye all that much during that interview. He has a history of trouble and I don't believe for a minute that he didn't know his father was trying to sell him to the highest bidder. I wonder if he's willing to put the work into the mental side of the game that he's going to have to do to succeed.

Now if I'm the GM of the Panthers, I've had opportunities during the combine, pro days and team visits to figure that stuff out. I've had probably a dozen or more hours of personal time to interview him, put him through drills, psych tests, etc. to determine whether or not he can learn the game at the next level (and whether I think he'll choose to do so). That's what none of us knows and that's why GMs get paid big bucks to make those decisions.

So is Cam Newton a reach at #1? Only if Carolina hasn't done their due diligence on the mental aspects of the game. If they pass on him, you can bet that they didn't like what they found.

As I said earlier, knowing what I know right now, I'd take Patrick Peterson at #1. But I also know that I don't know enough to really make that determination. All I can tell you is that if Cam Newton fails, I have a pretty good idea where he'd fail and why.

[jbergey22]

Very well said!

I think Cam is more inaccurate than you appear to think but like you mention with proper footwork that can be corrected.

[Blackadar]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

I'm not trying to say Claussen and Pike are "it", but I am saying you need a bit more than the chance they've been given. Combined with Carolina having "pocket lint" at receiver, catching tight ends, defensive line, defensive back, etc, and the number of QBs that have needed time to settle in (we don't know yet if Claussen is Rex Grossman or Drew Brees) especially without any sort of mentor and a coaching staff that wants to run the ball and for whom the passing game is an after-thought, I think they should be looking to fill a different gaping hole right now and revisit QB in a year or two.

Or maybe draft 3 more QBs and hope you finally hit one...

But if you think Cam Newton is IT, why wouldn't you take him regardless of Claussen and Pike (and Matt Moore)? If I have a bunch of unknown variables at QB and a guy who I think is a sure thing is available, I'm grabbing him.

Besides, if Carolina was sure about Claussen when they got him in the 2nd round, they wouldn't have drafted Tony Pike in the 6th.

Remember, coach Ron Rivera hasn't had any time with any of these guys, so they're all very unknown quantities. If they look at the tape and decide that Cam's their best best, I don't know why you'd pass on him. You never, ever pass on a guy you think will be a franchise QB.

Would you feel the same way if Carolina could select Andrew Luck this year? Because the same logic you're using would apply...

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

I was just stating an opinion that 3 out of the 4 best QBs were not taken early in the 1st round. I didnt think I was hiding Manning from that comment.

I didn't say you were. I was just trying to make sense of your phrasing. My mistake.

[gstelmack]

Originally Posted by Blackadar

But if you think Cam Newton is IT, why wouldn't you take him regardless of Claussen and Pike (and Matt Moore)? If I have a bunch of unknown variables at QB and a guy who I think is a sure thing is available, I'm grabbing him.

Besides, if Carolina was sure about Claussen when they got him in the 2nd round, they wouldn't have drafted Tony Pike in the 6th.

Remember, coach Ron Rivera hasn't had any time with any of these guys, so they're all very unknown quantities. If they look at the tape and decide that Cam's their best best, I don't know why you'd pass on him. You never, ever pass on a guy you think will be a franchise QB.

Would you feel the same way if Carolina could select Andrew Luck this year? Because the same logic you're using would apply...

Carolina just has so many holes. And I guess part of my reaction is the fear they'll pick Newton, I just don't get the infatuation with him (the guy called plays by NUMBER for crying out loud). I'm not trying to make a broad generalization to apply to any draft, I'm looking at Carolina's situation in particular where they've made bad draft trades to limit the number of picks, took 3 QBs last year that have left other huge holes on the roster, got old at a lot of positions and not many good youngsters to fill the gaps, and the like. Maybe if there really were a "true #1", but I just don't see it among the QBs.

I'd feel better about them going QB #1 overall if they had managed to resist the Claussen / Pike urges and upgrade other parts of their roster last year and had filled some of these holes. Maybe I'd feel better if Luck was around. Heck, I might feel better if they shocked everyone and picked someone like Dalton or Stanzi here instead of Gabbert or Newton because that would show me they had actually found something instead of going with the flow. If they pick Newton, I'd be more worried they were trying to sell tickets to get folks to see him than really trying to build a foundation for a future winning football team.

But yeah, I guess if you're looking at it as essentially starting over, and they are really happy with a particular QB, then you might as well grab him, and start filling some of these other holes later. Just not sure I trust them on this...

[Blackadar]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

But yeah, I guess if you're looking at it as essentially starting over, and they are really happy with a particular QB, then you might as well grab him, and start filling some of these other holes later. Just not sure I trust them on this...

For good reason. Let's go back through their top pick in each draft.

Jimmy Claussen
Everett Brown
Jon Stewart
Jon Beason
DeAngelo Williams
Thomas Davis
Chris Gamble
Jordan Gross
Julius Peppers
Dan Morgan
Rashard Anderson
Chris Terry
Jason Peter
Rae Carruth
Tim Biakabutuka
Kerry Collins

That's 16 years of picks and only 3 real hits - Beason, Gross and Peppers. Morgan's career was hampered by injuries, there's a couple of solid starters in there and the rest are largely forgettable. That's not what you want from your list of #1s. It's amazing that Carolina has actually had some periods of success given their spotty draft history. With that kind of track record, you should bet against whomever they select!

[jbergey22]

Id say Deangelo as a late first was a hit and Stewart has looked damn good in his first few years athough even 5 of 16 is horrible.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Blackadar

No, I don't. Green can't be an impact player if he doesn't have someone who can get him the ball. Larry Fitzgerald scored 6tds last year because he had Derek Anderson and John Skelton throwing him the ball.

Besides, I think WRs are one of those positions you can draft later and get good value, especially in this draft class. There's some good depth in the 3rd and 4th rounds for WRs. WRs are different than QBs - good ones come from everywhere. Look at the top WRs from last year. Brandon Lloyd was a 4th rounder. Roddy White went 1(27). Reggie Wayne 1(30). Greg Jennings 2(52). Mike Wallace 3(84). Interestingly enough, the next 5 all went in the 1st round, but the next 5 after that none were 1st round picks. While you have a better chance of getting a stud if you pick him in the first, you can usually find talent at that position throughout the entire draft.

Fitz was also without Boldin this past season, and the new #2 Breaston was injured and only started 11 games-so like Carolina, it was basically Fitz by himself. I don't care how good those two may be-your numbers are going to be down because the defense knows that you're the one they need to stop, so he was double covered, probably even triple covered at times, bumped hard at the line of scrimmage, etc. Of course his numbers were going to be down anyway because of the QB's, but he still had over 1000 yards receiving. Put a fully healthy Breaston back and Fitz numbers will improve no matter who the QB is (Please for the love of God don't let that be Derek Anderson).

The Panthers have tried middle round WR's and 2nd round receivers in their recent draft history. None have panned out so far. I'll play a bit of a wait and see on the three WR's they drafted in the 3rd round (2 of them) and 6th round last season, but they have drafted 7 WR's since Steve Smith was drafted in 2001, and none so far have panned out. It was a good thing they had Muhammed there for a good chunk of that time, or they would have been really struggling at that position. Clearly they have either been unlucky at drafting receivers in the later rounds, or not very good at developing them. Green is not a can't miss of course-no one is, but he certainly has the most chance to be the best receiver the Panthers have drafted since Smith.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Blackadar

But if you think Cam Newton is IT, why wouldn't you take him regardless of Claussen and Pike (and Matt Moore)? If I have a bunch of unknown variables at QB and a guy who I think is a sure thing is available, I'm grabbing him.

Besides, if Carolina was sure about Claussen when they got him in the 2nd round, they wouldn't have drafted Tony Pike in the 6th.

Remember, coach Ron Rivera hasn't had any time with any of these guys, so they're all very unknown quantities. If they look at the tape and decide that Cam's their best best, I don't know why you'd pass on him. You never, ever pass on a guy you think will be a franchise QB.

Would you feel the same way if Carolina could select Andrew Luck this year? Because the same logic you're using would apply...

As I said earlier, it would be a no-brainer that the Panthers take Luck. From what I've seen from people who watch him, he would have been the franchise QB of this draft not Newton. If Carolina feels that Newton is the QB that can develop into the franchise QB that will lead them to multiple playoff seasons, then of course Carolina has to take him. But I'm worried Newton wont look much better than Clausen the first couple or three seasons. I want him to do well mainly because I don't want to see sucky Carolina Panthers games here that next two or three seasons, but I have the feeling that's what I'll see. I'll happily admit if I'm wrong though.

And did you see who the Panthers play first this season? Yep my beloved Cards-that Newton/Claussen vs Anderson/Skelton/Hall sure sounds exciting huh?

[Blackadar]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

On the Panthers drafting WRs...

Yes, their track record is horrible. I don't think that means they shouldn't draft a WR in the first round. But given where the depth in this particular draft is at the WR position, I think they could easily wait and grab a decent one in the 3rd. They have little chance of having one of the thought-to-be-better QBs falling to them in the 3rd.

Originally Posted by Thomkal

On Fitzgerald...

The point still stands. If an incredible, top 5 talent WR like Fitzy couldn't make an impact last year, what chance does a rookie have? So the lack of impact that a WR rookie could have on the Panthers coupled with the depth of the WR class in this draft leads me to believe that the Panthers shouldn't go WR with the #1 pick. In fact, I'd take Dareus, Miller, Peterson and a few others before I'd take a WR if I were Carolina.

Originally Posted by Thomkal

On Newton/Claussen vs Anderson/Skelton/Hall

Nah, ya'll will have Mark Bulger or Kevin Kolb under center.

[stevew]

Rae Carruth was a hit......man.

[QuikSand]

Isn't it fairly well accepted that if you spend a top draft pick at either QB or WR, you are making an investment for the longer term than the initial weeks of the coming season? There are positions that tend to yield an immediate impact - but WR and QB seem to be the most consistent at landing at the other end of that spectrum.

Not saying I disagree with the idea of Carolina securing a top defender here, that's fine by me too. I just don't necessarily think that pushing in every single chip possible to try to squeeze 7 wins out of the 2011 Panthers is really the angle I'd be shooting for.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Blackadar

Yes, their track record is horrible. I don't think that means they shouldn't draft a WR in the first round. But given where the depth in this particular draft is at the WR position, I think they could easily wait and grab a decent one in the 3rd. They have little chance of having one of the thought-to-be-better QBs falling to them in the 3rd.



The point still stands. If an incredible, top 5 talent WR like Fitzy couldn't make an impact last year, what chance does a rookie have? So the lack of impact that a WR rookie could have on the Panthers coupled with the depth of the WR class in this draft leads me to believe that the Panthers shouldn't go WR with the #1 pick. In fact, I'd take Dareus, Miller, Peterson and a few others before I'd take a WR if I were Carolina.



Nah, ya'll will have Mark Bulger or Kevin Kolb under center.

God please not Bulger-he's completely faded away these past few seasons-but that would be a veteran QB Coach Whis would go after probably. I think who the Cardinals draft in the first or second round tell the story on Kolb here. If they don't draft one, I think its because they are going to go after Kolb (or McNabb).

[JonInMiddleGA]

Elsewhere in the draft ...

Report: UGA's Justin Houston tested positive for marijuana | Mark Bradley

[Matthean]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Elsewhere in the draft ...

Report: UGA's Justin Houston tested positive for marijuana | Mark Bradley

Just means you draft him later at a bargain.

[Thomkal]

Interestingly enough (well for me being a Cardinal fan at all), the Cards fans over at SB Nation think that the Cards are most likely to draft LB Miller, then CB Peterson, and 10% think they will trade down. Only 5% seem to think they will take QB Gabbert which seems a bit low even factoring in that he might be taken above the Cards pick, and only 1% says WR Green and QB Cam Newton.

Green becomes an even more interesting pick for the Cards because of the contract situation of their top 3 WR's from last season. Only Fitzgerald is signed and its the last year of his contract-neither Breaston or Doucet are signed. That could certainly play into things if Green is there at #5.

[Blackadar]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

God please not Bulger-he's completely faded away these past few seasons-but that would be a veteran QB Coach Whis would go after probably. I think who the Cardinals draft in the first or second round tell the story on Kolb here. If they don't draft one, I think its because they are going to go after Kolb (or McNabb).

I'd rather have Bulger than McNabb in your system. I'm not sure how much he has "faded". Given the horrendous talent and awful coaching during his last two seasons with St. Louis, I don't put much of the blame on him. I think the guy has a couple of years left.

Kolb is most certainly a possibility as well. But you'll give up your 1st next year (plus probably a 4th) to get him, whereas Bulger won't cost you a thing in compensation.

If 'Zona doesn't go after a QB with their top pick, then Bulger is probably your starter this year as he mentors one of your young guys.

[stevew]

Questionable twitter sources are "confirming" that Carolina is going to go with Newton.

[M GO BLUE!!!]

Originally Posted by stevew

Questionable twitter sources are "confirming" that Carolina is going to go with Newton.

What, was a former player who owns season tickets supposedly phoned by Reverend Newton?

[B & B]

Originally Posted by Matthean

Just means you draft him later at a bargain.

Bingo.

If he slips down to the 2nd round, its a steal.


Yeck fans gotta hate.

[Swaggs]

Rivals put out a list of which colleges put out the most draftees and first round picks: Rivals.com College Football - By the numbers: NFL draft since 2000

Most draft picks
1. Ohio State 73
2. USC 69
3. Miami 67
4. Georgia 61
5. Tennessee 60
6t. Florida 59
6t. Florida State 59
8. LSU 55
9. Virginia Tech 52
10t. Michigan 49
10t. Oklahoma 49

Most first-rounders
1. Miami 26
2. Ohio State 16
3. USC 15
4t. Florida State 14
4t. Texas 14
6t. Florida 12
6t. Oklahoma 12
6t. Tennessee 12
9. Georgia 11
10. Penn State 10

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by B & B

Yeck fans gotta hate.

Hey, if it had been some sleazeball in Old Gold & White that was this stupid I would have posted that too ... if there'd been an actual draft prospect on campus recently anyways.

[stevew]

They were talking about it on the BS Report......how bad are the boos for Goddell going to really be? I'm thinking somewhere between "The Jets Select from the University of Virginia, Jeff Lageman" and Bash at the Beach Hulk Hogan/Outsiders level.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Rivals put out a list of which colleges put out the most draftees and first round picks: Rivals.com College Football - By the numbers: NFL draft since 2000

Safe to say Tennessee and Florida State have underachieved?

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Blackadar

Yes, their track record is horrible. I don't think that means they shouldn't draft a WR in the first round. But given where the depth in this particular draft is at the WR position, I think they could easily wait and grab a decent one in the 3rd. They have little chance of having one of the thought-to-be-better QBs falling to them in the 3rd.



The point still stands. If an incredible, top 5 talent WR like Fitzy couldn't make an impact last year, what chance does a rookie have? So the lack of impact that a WR rookie could have on the Panthers coupled with the depth of the WR class in this draft leads me to believe that the Panthers shouldn't go WR with the #1 pick. In fact, I'd take Dareus, Miller, Peterson and a few others before I'd take a WR if I were Carolina.



Nah, ya'll will have Mark Bulger or Kevin Kolb under center.

Looks like you might be right here Blackadar:

Cardinals may “already have understanding” with Bulger | ProFootballTalk

[Galaxy]

Originally Posted by stevew

I hate the Thursday night draft, and would personally like to tell Roger Goddell/whomever thought of the idea to get fucked.

I agree. Are the ratings really up? As with any organized sports (NCAA or pro), if it works, fix it.

I heard on the radio that reports are saying Von Miller could go to Denver at No. 2.

[JediKooter]

I'm curious to see how many picks the Raiders will trade to the Patriots.

[Warhammer]

I look at Newton as a clone of Russell who has a better personality. With every additional interview I see with the guy, warning alarms go off.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by Warhammer

I look at Newton as a clone of Russell who has a better personality. With every additional interview I see with the guy, warning alarms go off.

Yeah. I think he's a lot more talented on the whole, so with the right system he can be a decent QB in the league. I don't think he's Akili Smith. But yeah, I hate his interviews and I cringe every time he opens his mouth. And clearly in that particular interview, he was obviously using his coaching to say the same things over and over again.

[bulletsponge]

i hope im wrong, but i would be surprised if he (newton) was still in the league in 6 years

[Warhammer]

Yeah, Russell had some tools, he completely lacked a work ethic and was happy with getting paid.

I don't think Newton completely lacks a work ethic, but I'm not sure he has the make up to become a great QB.

[DanGarion]

Originally Posted by fantom1979

After looking at Carolina's receivers last year, I noticed that Dwayne Jarrett has just about disappeared. Its really surprising to me how USC receivers have continued to disappoint in the NFL.

R. Jay Soward, Keary Colbert, Mike Williams, Steve Smith (NYG), and Jarrett were all taken in the first 2 rounds since 2000. Only Smith has had a 100 yard season.

I think Williams surpassed 100 yards last year.

[Galaxy]

And ESPN is crap again.

[remper]

Does Gruden HAVE to be involved in everything NFL related on ESPN? Now THAT guy ruins my watching enjoyment.

Also, Carolina will regret that pick... so much. So much...

[Young Drachma]

Yeah just you reminded me to go to the NFL Network.

[MrBug708]

So much for a surprise on any of these....w2g ESPN

[Thomkal]

Sadly I think Newton is more likely to be a bust than a star and its means two bad top picks for the Panthes in a row.

[Thomkal]

oh man here comes the Cards pick-its probably Peterson, but could really be just about anybody they have so many holes, which may lead to a trade.

[Thomkal]

Marc Bulger here we come to the Cards I guess. *sigh* their defense needs help so I can't say its a bad pick.

[Thomkal]

interesting ESPN saying Atlanta had a deal to move up to get Green at #4, but fell apart near the end.

[Thomkal]

hey people I'm talking to myself here...

[bulletsponge]

no

[bulletsponge]

hope sf take gabbert

[Warhammer]

Sorry, I just went into mourning since the Rams didn't move up to get Jones. They are close to being where they were in 1998. They have many good players in place, but they need that guy to put them over the top on offense.