NFL Week 11 Thread - NFC Powerhouses Square off on MNF

[BillJasper]

Does Reid survive another week after such an ugly loss?

[Desnudo]

talib!

[Desnudo]

Luck is clearly going to be a good player. I don't understand all the rookie of the year talk based on his stats to-date though. RG III and Wilson are both superior.

[BillJasper]

Originally Posted by Desnudo

Luck is clearly going to be a good player. I don't understand all the rookie of the year talk based on his stats to-date though. RG III and Wilson are both superior.

Well, you have a very similar team to one that went 2-14 last year that may make the playoffs this year. If Manning was an MVP by simply not being there then I think the difference the presence of Luck makes, makes him a Rookie of the Year candidate.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by BillJasper

Does Reid survive another week after such an ugly loss?

I certainly hope not. I'm done with this team this year.

[BillJasper]

The Chargers need to fire Turner before Philip Rivers turns into a complete pile of shit.

[Desnudo]

I would love to see Turner and Reid both get fired and switch jobs.

[Vince, Pt. II]

The Arizona / Atlanta game may have been ugly, but that was one awesome fumble recovery:

Video: Cardinals make amazing play on sideline fumble recovery | Shutdown Corner - Yahoo! Sports

[BillJasper]

Originally Posted by Desnudo

I would love to see Turner and Reid both get fired and switch jobs.

Only way I see Turner being a head coach again is as a 'yes man' for Jerry Jones down in Dallas.

[Thomkal]

All I can say about my beloved Cardinals-to pick Matt Ryan off 5 times and not win the game let alone score a ton of points...pathetic. It should mark the end of the Whisenhunt and Graves era-the gamble with Kolb might have worked...if they actually tried to improve the O-Line during the offseason after giving up the most sacks last season.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by Desnudo

Luck is clearly going to be a good player. I don't understand all the rookie of the year talk based on his stats to-date though. RG III and Wilson are both superior.

Huh? Using conventional stats the other two might be better. Pretty much all of the advanced statistical models I have seen have Luck far ahead of the other two.

QBR has Luck 4, Griffin 10, Wilson 17.

Football Outsiders has Luck 10, Wilson 17, Griffin 19.

These use successful plays and game situations rather than just conventional numbers.

Griffin likely improved all of his advanced stats today to move up, but Luck has been terrific thus far.

[Simbo Klice]

*sniff* Luck just did a Steve McNair Special... Throwing a first down pass while being dragged down from behind. RIP Steve.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by Desnudo

I would love to see Turner and Reid both get fired and switch jobs.

I do still think Reid gets a long look from SD, if not the job. No way in hell Norv should be hired in Philly though.

[TroyF]

Oh, one more thing about Luck vs. the other two guys. The other two guys aren't really running conventional offenses. Heading into this week, the Colts had played 9 games, the Skins and Hawks had played 10.

Luck has thrown the ball 362 times. Griffin 262. Wilson 253. By the time todays games end, Luck will have well over 400 pass attempts while neither of the other two will have close to 300.

He's simply being asked to do a hell of a lot more than what the other two guys are. If I had a vote, he would be my ROY if the season ended today

[BillJasper]

Originally Posted by TroyF

Oh, one more thing about Luck vs. the other two guys. The other two guys aren't really running conventional offenses. Heading into this week, the Colts had played 9 games, the Skins and Hawks had played 10.

Luck has thrown the ball 362 times. Griffin 262. Wilson 253. By the time todays games end, Luck will have well over 400 pass attempts while neither of the other two will have close to 300.

He's simply being asked to do a hell of a lot more than what the other two guys are. If I had a vote, he would be my ROY if the season ended today

He's looking like a rookie today.

[Matthean]

Originally Posted by BillJasper

He's looking like a rookie today.

Try keeping up with Brady with the Colts defense backing you up.

[BillJasper]

Originally Posted by Matthean

Try keeping up with Brady with the Colts defense backing you up.

Luck has had two Pick Six int's and a fumble that led to another Patriot TD. He's looked very much like a rookie and the main reason the Patriots are up big.

[Desnudo]

Originally Posted by TroyF

Huh? Using conventional stats the other two might be better. Pretty much all of the advanced statistical models I have seen have Luck far ahead of the other two.

QBR has Luck 4, Griffin 10, Wilson 17.

Football Outsiders has Luck 10, Wilson 17, Griffin 19.

These use successful plays and game situations rather than just conventional numbers.

Griffin likely improved all of his advanced stats today to move up, but Luck has been terrific thus far.

I don't know what those numbers mean. I can tell you they won't be favoring Luck after two TAINTS today.

[cuervo72]

Not a smart INT, Leonard.

[Matthean]

Originally Posted by BillJasper

Luck has had two Pick Six int's and a fumble that led to another Patriot TD. He's looked very much like a rookie and the main reason the Patriots are up big.

Bad games from rookie QBs happen. It doesn't change the fact that Indy is tied with Seattle and beating the Redskins in terms of record and yet Washington was 5-11 and Seattle was 7-9 last year while Indy was 2-14. How many people at the start of the year had Indy being a game up on the rest of the AFC in terms of a wildcard during week 11? I highly doubt many.

[BillJasper]

Originally Posted by Matthean

Bad games from rookie QBs happen. It doesn't change the fact that Indy is tied with Seattle and beating the Redskins in terms of record and yet Washington was 5-11 and Seattle was 7-9 last year while Indy was 2-14. How many people at the start of the year had Indy being a game up on the rest of the AFC in terms of a wildcard during week 11? I highly doubt many.

Which I pointed out in an earlier post, that he was in the running because of the improvement in the Colts record. Doesn't change that he's had an incredibly shitty day today.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by Desnudo

I don't know what those numbers mean. I can tell you they won't be favoring Luck after two TAINTS today.

The numbers will be bad today and will look poorly on Luck, but they also encompass an entire season. Two passes and a fumble aren't dropping him below Wilson, and probably will not drop him below Griffin, even after the showing he had today.

The numbers are really simple. They don't rate every play equally. A 3rd and 10 where you pick up 7 is a failed play. A 4th down or hail mary INT isn't rated as bad as a first and 10 INT. You can go to footballoutsiders.com to see most of the metrics.

Luck had a rough day and it was one I expected him to have. The Patriots at home and pissed off. Colts defense simply horrible. That makes it a shootout. Say what you want about the INT's and the fumble, Luck is feeling pressured to keep up and make throws he doesn't want to because he knows his defense isn't stopping the Pats.

Pats have TD drives today of 81,80,76, and 68 yards. They have punted one time. Again, Luck didn't play well today, but he wasn't nearly as bad as the numbers indicate either. My guess is he'll still rank ahead of the other two in the stats after tomorrow morning. And I still rate him my ROY. Now, Griffin plays like he did today and Luck plays like he did today for the rest of the year? Griffin in a landslide. I don't expect that to happen.

[TroyF]

Broncos need Rivers to make one of his screwups here. Chargers get a TD here, this could get interesting. Denver has no running game and Chargers have all three timeouts left. This isn't over yet.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by TroyF

Huh? Using conventional stats the other two might be better. Pretty much all of the advanced statistical models I have seen have Luck far ahead of the other two.

QBR has Luck 4, Griffin 10, Wilson 17.

Football Outsiders has Luck 10, Wilson 17, Griffin 19.

These use successful plays and game situations rather than just conventional numbers.

Griffin likely improved all of his advanced stats today to move up, but Luck has been terrific thus far.

How about supporting cast? Reggie Wayne >>> Aldrick Robinson. I don't know enough to compare the rest of the offenses, but I suspect the Colts have better passing game weapons than the Redskins, though the Redskins have a better running game.

[TroyF]

close call, I think it's a TD

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by JAG

How about supporting cast? Reggie Wayne >>> Aldrick Robinson. I don't know enough to compare the rest of the offenses, but I suspect the Colts have better passing game weapons than the Redskins, though the Redskins have a better running game.

Wilson has a better D and running game.

Griffin is the one I would rate close to Luck, but he has a far better running game to work with. A long way to go, we'll see how they all perform over the next six games or so.

[TroyF]

I would like to thank the Chargers for stupidly running the ball with 1:40 left and wasting a time out in doing it. By not have that time out, the Broncos without their running game can allow the clock to slide all the way down to 30 seconds or so instead of giving the ball back to SD with over a minute left. That really helped us out there. Thanks Norv.

[BillJasper]

Originally Posted by TroyF

Wilson has a better D and running game.

Griffin is the one I would rate close to Luck, but he has a far better running game to work with. A long way to go, we'll see how they all perform over the next six games or so.

And Wilson has Sidney Rice to throw the ball too.

I'd rate all three pretty close together right now. But I think Luck is the most complete QB, Griffin is an electric game-changer and Wilson is a game manager.

[TroyF]

And that's the division. Denver now up three games + the tie break. Beat the Chiefs twice and the Raiders once and they can lose every other game and win the division. Not a pretty win today, but a win.

[Desnudo]

Originally Posted by TroyF

The numbers will be bad today and will look poorly on Luck, but they also encompass an entire season. Two passes and a fumble aren't dropping him below Wilson, and probably will not drop him below Griffin, even after the showing he had today.

The numbers are really simple. They don't rate every play equally. A 3rd and 10 where you pick up 7 is a failed play. A 4th down or hail mary INT isn't rated as bad as a first and 10 INT. You can go to footballoutsiders.com to see most of the metrics.

Luck had a rough day and it was one I expected him to have. The Patriots at home and pissed off. Colts defense simply horrible. That makes it a shootout. Say what you want about the INT's and the fumble, Luck is feeling pressured to keep up and make throws he doesn't want to because he knows his defense isn't stopping the Pats.

Pats have TD drives today of 81,80,76, and 68 yards. They have punted one time. Again, Luck didn't play well today, but he wasn't nearly as bad as the numbers indicate either. My guess is he'll still rank ahead of the other two in the stats after tomorrow morning. And I still rate him my ROY. Now, Griffin plays like he did today and Luck plays like he did today for the rest of the year? Griffin in a landslide. I don't expect that to happen.

I honestly find it amazing that advanced stats would find Luck so far ahead of Wilson specifically and RG III as well. Normally I'm all for the Nate Silvers of the world, but I find the conclusion that he's in the same category this year as RG III and Wilson to be pretty ridiculous.

Say what you want about the traditional quarterback rating - there is a very strong correlation between QB rating differential and victories. So a highly rated QB gives you much better chance of victory...

The top ten in QB rating is the who's who of the best quarterbacks in the league and includes RG III with Wilson sitting at 12th. Luck was 26th before today's game.

[Julio Riddols]

I'd go with Griffin as my ROY in a heartbeat. He has had no one to really throw to most of the season, yet he continues to put up outstanding numbers almost every week. He's the best dual threat QB the league has ever seen, light years ahead of Vick. When they get some healthy weapons around him, the Redskins offense is going to be VERY scary. In indy, Luck is doing well with a similar lack of talent, but he also has Reggie Wayne playing perhaps the best he has ever played and a much stronger (and vastly underrated) defense behind him. I think if Griffin had Garcon, Carriker and Orakpo healthy all year, it would be even more clear cut, but Griffin is producing at a level that hasn't been seen since Randall Cunningham in his prime, while Luck is having a very good season, but nothing we haven't seen from a rookie before.

[BillJasper]

Isn't Luck on pace to break the rookie records for TD's, Passing Yards and Victories?

[Matthean]

Originally Posted by Desnudo

So a highly rated QB gives you much better chance of victory...

The top ten in QB rating is the who's who of the best quarterbacks in the league and includes RG III with Wilson sitting at 12th. Luck was 26th before today's game.

So why is Indy two games higher than Washington if RGIII is so clearly superior?

[Desnudo]

Originally Posted by Matthean

So why is Indy two games higher than Washington if RGIII is so clearly superior?

Because it's a correlation, not a guarantee? Washington has a bad differential. Indy has one of the worst. I wouldn't be suprised to see Indy continue trend towards that differential in the second half. Meaning they lose a lot more.

[Matthean]

Originally Posted by Julio Riddols

In indy, Luck is doing well with a similar lack of talent, but he also has Reggie Wayne playing perhaps the best he has ever played and a much stronger (and vastly underrated) defense behind him. I think if Griffin had Garcon, Carriker and Orakpo healthy all year, it would be even more clear cut, but Griffin is producing at a level that hasn't been seen since Randall Cunningham in his prime, while Luck is having a very good season, but nothing we haven't seen from a rookie before.

But I want you to look at something …

QB1: 2,645 yards, 18 TDs, 3 picks, 64.8 completion %, 15 sacks, 100.1 rating.
QB2: 2,072 yards, 15 TDs, 4 picks, 63.0 completion %, 21 sacks, 96.5 rating.

The first QB is Brady. The second QB is everyone who started against the 2012 Colts — a list that features exactly one quality QB (Aaron Rodgers), one above-average QB (Jay Cutler), one just-about-washed-up QB (Matt Hasselbeck), two rookie QBs (Brandon Weeden, Ryan Tannehill), three struggling second-year QBs (Christian Ponder, Blaine Gabbert and Blaine Gabbert again), and one totally embattled QB (Mark Sanchez). Rodgers ranks second in QB rating, Ponder ranks 20th, and the other six range from 24th (Cutler) to 31st (Weeden). And yet, somehow, The Guy Who Goes Against The 2012 Colts would have the ninth-highest QB rating and the eighth-best touchdown/interception ratio.

Indy has now given up 6 more points than the Redskins have.

[stevew]

http://www.legacy.com/obituaries/kan...78#fbLoggedOut

Loren G. "Sam" Lickteig passed away on Nov. 14, 2012 of complications from MS and heartbreaking disappointment caused by the Kansas City Chiefs football team.

Read more here: http://www.legacy.com/obituaries/kan...#storylink=cpy

[stevew]

Originally Posted by BillJasper

Isn't Luck on pace to break the rookie records for TD's, Passing Yards and Victories?

Big ben won like 12 or 13 games as a rookie.

[BillJasper]

Originally Posted by stevew

Big ben won like 12 or 13 games as a rookie.

Right you are. On the broadcast they said the record was seven, which didn't seem right. They forgot about Ben and so did I.

[Matthean]

Originally Posted by BillJasper

Isn't Luck on pace to break the rookie records for TD's, Passing Yards and Victories?

Peyton had 26 TDs. Luck has 10. Cam had 4K+ yards. Luck has 2.6K. Big Ben as mentioned earlier has the most wins.

[BillJasper]

Originally Posted by stevew

http://www.legacy.com/obituaries/kan...78#fbLoggedOut

Loren G. "Sam" Lickteig passed away on Nov. 14, 2012 of complications from MS and heartbreaking disappointment caused by the Kansas City Chiefs football team.

Read more here: http://www.legacy.com/obituaries/kan...#storylink=cpy

Guy passed away from a broken heart, his wife just died in July of this year. Watched this with my wife's grandparents. They were married for sixty-nine years and one passed less than ten months after the other.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by TroyF

Huh? Using conventional stats the other two might be better. Pretty much all of the advanced statistical models I have seen have Luck far ahead of the other two.

QBR has Luck 4, Griffin 10, Wilson 17.

Football Outsiders has Luck 10, Wilson 17, Griffin 19.

These use successful plays and game situations rather than just conventional numbers.

Griffin likely improved all of his advanced stats today to move up, but Luck has been terrific thus far.

Do those numbers take into account rushing by a QB?

[BillJasper]

Originally Posted by Matthean

Peyton had 26 TDs. Luck has 10. Cam had 4K+ yards. Luck has 2.6K. Big Ben as mentioned earlier has the most wins.

Another 14 TD's over six games isn't unreachable, neither is another 1,500 yards. Then we have Luck already having six rushing TD's as well.

[Julio Riddols]

I thought we almost unanimously shot the QBR rating system to hell last season when it was introduced.

[Jas_lov]

They look at W-L record for MVP, not sure how much they will for ROY. RG3 is probably the front runner despite his team being less likely than Luck's or Wilson's to make the playoffs. Shanahan already wrote off the playoffs anyway so this is a showcase for RG3. This isn't baseball where advanced stats are looked at more closely. NFL writers will look at the conventional stats which favor RG3 and Wilson.

[stevew]

That TD run was an embarrassment for organized football

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Julio Riddols

I thought we almost unanimously shot the QBR rating system to hell last season when it was introduced.

Yeah. I get mad when I see it referenced.

[BillJasper]

Originally Posted by stevew

That TD run was an embarrassment for organized football

Can we put the "Elite" debate for Flacco away if he loses to Leftwich tonight?

[Desnudo]

I thought leftwich was slow

[BillJasper]

Originally Posted by Jas_lov

They look at W-L record for MVP, not sure how much they will for ROY. RG3 is probably the front runner despite his team being less likely than Luck's or Wilson's to make the playoffs. Shanahan already wrote off the playoffs anyway so this is a showcase for RG3. This isn't baseball where advanced stats are looked at more closely. NFL writers will look at the conventional stats which favor RG3 and Wilson.

How can you ignore a team being seven or eight wins better than they were the prior season when evaluating a rookie QB?

[BillJasper]

Nice ball control Wallace.