Werewolf CLX - Atlantic City - GAME OVER

[Autumn]

Signups closed. Unless you PM me quick and beg. working on sending out roles.

[Autumn]

Roles have been sent out and game now begins.

Today is Day Zero, meaning no lynch votes are possible. You may begin discussin thread, but your sole responsibility is to send me your Lynch Bet by Monday 9 PM EST. Please ask away if you have any questions about this or the mechanics. Tuesday will be the first real day of the game, with a lynch and bidding for services.

[Autumn]

I'm hoping the Day Zero helps make sure everybody realizes the game is on before things get really started up. So please check in during the next 24 hours please.

[Danny]

DId Bullet get in?

[Autumn]

Yes.

[Autumn]

I had already signed him up ;-)

[Danny]

oh

[britrock88]

Yo.

[fontisian]

Planning time.

Autumn's last Vegas game had 19 people, with 12 villagers, 1 gambler (who was pretty much a villager) and 3 wolves for each family. We have 16 people, so we're probably either at 12-2-2 or 10-3-3.

[JAG]

I would think we're probably at 12-2-2, especially considering that the rules said something about villagers potentially getting corrupted by black market services.

[JAG]

But maybe not. Not much coordination you can do with only two players each on a mafia side so that wouldn't be too fun.

[Danny]

As far as I am concerned we are 8-7-1, you are all mafia!

[fontisian]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Some services will be listed as Black-market Services. Any player may bid on and win these services. However, it is risky for villagers to get involved with these sort of people. There is a cumulative danger that players who contract through the black-market will find themselves indebted to the mob.

JAG: I'm assuming that you're refering to this, though I'm not sure if it implies a conversion or some other mechanic.

Possible idea: We use the time to decide the Day 1 lynch before the betting deadline. Pros: All of the villagers get money and we get a lot of Day 0 activity. Cons: All of the mafia get money, which they can then pool, and we probably get less Day 1 activity.

[bulletsponge]

im in. time to skin some wolves

[Narcizo]

Hello.

I think "being indebted to the mob" could mean that the mob can change their vote or something.

I think 12:2:2 would be very harsh on the wolfies - remember that as far as they're concerned that's 14:2, without a guaranteed night kill. 13:3 seems fairer but the village are at 10:3:3 under those circumstances which is tough for us. Then again the benefit of having a seer-service is that the result can be revealed immediately, which is a huge bonus for the village. I tend to lean towards it being 10:3:3.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by fontisian

JAG: I'm assuming that you're refering to this, though I'm not sure if it implies a conversion or some other mechanic.

Possible idea: We use the time to decide the Day 1 lynch before the betting deadline. Pros: All of the villagers get money and we get a lot of Day 0 activity. Cons: All of the mafia get money, which they can then pool, and we probably get less Day 1 activity.

I guess it could mean a portion or all of their winnings go to the mob, that actually seems most likely to me.

I like the idea. It is guaranteed to make more profit for the village than the mob which we can't guarantee with any other method I can think of. Yeah it kills D1 voting, but it's either that or we have no D0 voting, so that's a wash.

VOTE THE JACKAL

[Coffee Warlord]

Bah!

[JAG]

To make sure we have time to sort out the sure to happen last minute shenanigans and get our bets in for the right person, the unofficial D0 vote deadline should be 8:45EST (time stamp of 8:45 counts, 8:46 does not).

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by fontisian

JAG: I'm assuming that you're refering to this, though I'm not sure if it implies a conversion or some other mechanic.

Possible idea: We use the time to decide the Day 1 lynch before the betting deadline. Pros: All of the villagers get money and we get a lot of Day 0 activity. Cons: All of the mafia get money, which they can then pool, and we probably get less Day 1 activity.

Checking in.

I'm not so wild about this, font. What I recall from the Vegas game is that there was a ton of value in the mafia being able to pool their money and plan out their bids in private. Obviously, we can't do anything about their private communications, but it's kinda like going up against a secret bank. I don't know if it's such a great idea to give two separate organizations each a triple-down bet on the opening day, while the village's one day coup will not go very far (unpoolable) and will be uncoordinated amongst a group of people who won't be able to trust one another.

That said, if we do coordinate on a lynch today, I will certainly bet on the winner.

[Chief Rum]

Something else to think of. What if it's a close vote today?

That makes us awfully susceptible to vote switches tomorrow (when the actual lynch needs to happen). And the lynch target will have basically all day to tell us we're wrong, which will get annoying and probably counter productive to Day One discussion.

Hrm... look I like the concept. I just don't know if the end all value of it is going to match the concept ideal.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Roles have been sent out and game now begins.

Today is Day Zero, meaning no lynch votes are possible. You may begin discussin thread, but your sole responsibility is to send me your Lynch Bet by Monday 9 PM EST. Please ask away if you have any questions about this or the mechanics. Tuesday will be the first real day of the game, with a lynch and bidding for services.

Question for the moderator:

I note here that you have our lynch bets for today set for 9 PM EST (the dusk deadline), but from the rules it appears that the normal lynch bet time is actually at 9 AM EST (the dawn deadline).

Was your choice of lynch bet time for today intentional based on this being a Day Zero, and future bets will be in the AM, or was this set for tonight in error and you intended for the bets to be tomorrow morning? (as in at the end of "Night Zero")

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Question for the moderator:

I note here that you have our lynch bets for today set for 9 PM EST (the dusk deadline), but from the rules it appears that the normal lynch bet time is actually at 9 AM EST (the dawn deadline).

Was your choice of lynch bet time for today intentional based on this being a Day Zero, and future bets will be in the AM, or was this set for tonight in error and you intended for the bets to be tomorrow morning? (as in at the end of "Night Zero")

Future bets will be due in the morning, yes. I chose night for Day Zero simply because everyone has sufficient time to get them in, and I wanted to give a reason for everyone to make sure they checked in and got active before the first day truly starts.

[Autumn]

I will revise the rules to make this more clear -- you don't have to bet any certain amount of money on the lynch. You just guess who you think will get lynched and you either win the prize or not. So you only need to send me a name, not an amount of money.

[Autumn]

Also, I should point out for returning folks that one of the big changes in the revised rule set is that you can bet on more than one person in the lynch. Please make sure to check out those new rules.

The other large change is that when it comes time to bid on services, tomorrow, you can only bid on one service a day.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Something else to think of. What if it's a close vote today?

That makes us awfully susceptible to vote switches tomorrow (when the actual lynch needs to happen). And the lynch target will have basically all day to tell us we're wrong, which will get annoying and probably counter productive to Day One discussion.

Hrm... look I like the concept. I just don't know if the end all value of it is going to match the concept ideal.

I don't understand your bolded statements (or agree with them if I do understand). A close vote today will still have an outcome (unless we tie, but we never do that). And it doesn't have any impact on Day 1 discussion, it just makes Day 0 Day 1 instead of today being mostly useless for information gathering.

However, there's an argument that not everyone will be around at the 'lynch' deadline, which means that those that aren't will not be able to coordinate their bets properly.

Still, I'd rather try and get something out of today rather than just let it go by without forcing people to make a stand that could be useful in future days, so I still would rather go ahead with an imperfect plan than not having one at all.

[murrayyyyy]

Checking in. Got 8000 notes on stuff to order so I'll check in as often as I can.

Since I didn't play in Vegas, did you guys try the sacrifice last time. I saw that someone suggested it but didn't know if it actually happened. I forgot to go back and keep reading it last week when the game wasn't playing.

[InBlue]

Hi guys. Just checking in.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by JAG

I don't understand your bolded statements (or agree with them if I do understand). A close vote today will still have an outcome (unless we tie, but we never do that). And it doesn't have any impact on Day 1 discussion, it just makes Day 0 Day 1 instead of today being mostly useless for information gathering.

However, there's an argument that not everyone will be around at the 'lynch' deadline, which means that those that aren't will not be able to coordinate their bets properly.

Still, I'd rather try and get something out of today rather than just let it go by without forcing people to make a stand that could be useful in future days, so I still would rather go ahead with an imperfect plan than not having one at all.

I understand that. I'm not saying there isn't value in this plan, but I question that it's in the best interests of the village longterm, with what the mafia can do with combining their monies. And remember, we have two wolf teams, each of which will benefit greatly from the additional money. I think this plan underestimates what the mafia will be able to do with this advantage.

And that's besides the inherent flaws I pointed out in the process itself, how we would be betting today, but the actual vote happens tomorrow (today's votes may not end up the same as tomorrow, if people don't show up or someone changes their mind, or the lynch candidate convinces us to vote otherwise).

[mauchow]

Murrayyyu got $8000 to start?

vote murrayyy

[path12]

Hi all, checking in. Busy today but since it's night 0 I guess that is fine.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by JAG

I like the idea. It is guaranteed to make more profit for the village than the mob which we can't guarantee with any other method I can think of. Yeah it kills D1 voting, but it's either that or we have no D0 voting, so that's a wash.

This runs aground on the general inertia that the village displays whenever asked to co-ordinate anything. EVER.

AAAAND, more importantly, it doesn't help me with my bet.

[Narcizo]

Autumn, do we get any information about who has won a bet?

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by mauchow

Murrayyyu got $8000 to start?

More than that at my finger tips but then again I just spent $1700 on Ty Beanie Ballz in licensed teams. People love these damn things. I don't get it but what do I care, it makes the stores money. I seem to do an order a week.

http://ep.yimg.com/ca/I/yhst-1293480...2256_377926720

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Autumn, do we get any information about who has won a bet?

You do not.

[bulletsponge]

i dont quiet understand the rules, do we buy "seering" ability for 1 night? do we ever make more $$?

[Narcizo]

Yes and you get more cash by correctly predicting the lynch victim.

[Darth Vilus]

checkin in. Lets do this

[DaddyTorgo]

Checking in - time to go read the rule set.

[fontisian]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I understand that. I'm not saying there isn't value in this plan, but I question that it's in the best interests of the village longterm, with what the mafia can do with combining their monies.

That depends on whether you think the wolves have better odds of manipulating the lynch to make money than the villagers have of guessing the correct lynch.

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

And remember, we have two wolf teams, each of which will benefit greatly from the additional money. I think this plan underestimates what the mafia will be able to do with this advantage.

I don't see how the seperate wolf teams makes evenly distributing the money a bad idea. Wont the wolf teams will be betting against each other as well as the village?

Originally Posted by Narcizo

This runs aground on the general inertia that the village displays whenever asked to co-ordinate anything. EVER.

Three hours to deadline. Let's prove Narc wrong guys!

DaddyTorgo, Jackal and Zinto haven't checked in yet, and JAG has already voted for Jackal. So, I flipped a coin. Though, I am bothered by the way Narc dismissed the idea without considering its merits.

Vote DT

[fontisian]

Damn it DT.
Unvote DT
Vote Zinto

[Autumn]

I was going to tell you to bold your votes, Font, then I realized there's no vote today, so I don't care!

[fontisian]

Well, yeah. I didn't bold them because they aren't real votes.

[Zinto]

I am checking in!

[Danny]

Originally Posted by JAG

I guess it could mean a portion or all of their winnings go to the mob, that actually seems most likely to me.

I like the idea. It is guaranteed to make more profit for the village than the mob which we can't guarantee with any other method I can think of. Yeah it kills D1 voting, but it's either that or we have no D0 voting, so that's a wash.

VOTE THE JACKAL

I was going to go Jackal. Havent really read throuh much ,super tired, but I think I am bettign JackAL

[Coffee Warlord]

Smart money is on someone with a vowel in their name.

[Autumn]

All bets are due in 45 minutes.

[fontisian]

Sigh. Can't say I didn't expect this to happen.

[Chief Rum]

I'll vote bullet, simply because of the seer sorta reveal in the last game. Probably not a way I would go normally, but we have nothing to go on so far.

VOTE BULLETSPONGR

[Autumn]

I sent out reminders to anyone who hasn't bet yet. I will be slightly flexible this deadline only since the game is just starting.

[The Jackal]

Checking in, just got back from hockey post-work. Tuesday and Thursday I work until 10 EST and Wednesday I've got an exercise class which I probably won't get back from until post-deadline. Will do my very best to have some activity during the day, but work probably won't allow much.