Shannon Stewart traded to the Twins

[ISiddiqui]

I don't think I'm overestimating Stewart's ability. I think he's equal to Kielty, so I don't see why Toronto is paying someone else to play him as well as paying Kiety's salary (which probably isn't that much anyway), and then giving up someone else. It just seems a bit too much.

If Toronto didn't have to pay for Stewart at all, it would have been a great move. Now, it's just a 'eh' move.

[chrisj]

But Stewart will be a free agent next year... the Jays (should) have 3 or 4 more years of Kielty.

[bbor]

I'm pretty sure the deal would not have been done unless the Jays agreed to pay part or all of the salary.

Also..JP has apparently had a hard on for Keilty for awhile now.They had tried to pry him away from the Twinkies before the season started.

If the Jays are waving the flag this is the logical first step towards it.My only question is...why not get an arm?The Jays are loaded in the outfield now....with 5 or 6 guys that could be in the majors in the next 2 years.

[Cards4ever]

Originally posted by IMetTrentGreen
its all about sabermterics baby. kielty walks almost once per 6 at bats, plus has 4 years before he is a free agent. his .370 obp is much higher than stewarts .340+

kielty, in the billy beane/sandy alderson/bill james game, is a better player than stewart

good move for the jays

Actually, OPS is a even more proving statistic and Kielty is at .790 and Stewart is at .796.

The trade also allows the Twins to move Jones out of the leadoff spot into a RBI spot in the lineup.

[Alan T]

Originally posted by Cards4ever
Actually, OPS is a even more proving statistic and Kielty is at .790 and Stewart is at .796.

The trade also allows the Twins to move Jones out of the leadoff spot into a RBI spot in the lineup.

Some would disagree that OPS weights slugging percentage too highly and OBP too low. If I remember right, the Blue Jays are along those lines of thinking who would weight OBP 2 or 3 times more than SLG when then adding it to a modified OPS that is more like: (OBP*3)+SLG = Modified OPS score

In that weighting, Kielty by far comes out scoring as more valuable. So this deal does not suprise me from the Blue Jays perspective.

Likewise If I recall correctly, the Twins do not follow that same theology, and thus would prefer to have Stewart in the deal.

[Swaggs]

Originally posted by Alan T
Some would disagree that OPS weights slugging percentage too highly and OBP too low. If I remember right, the Blue Jays are along those lines of thinking who would weight OBP 2 or 3 times more than SLG when then adding it to a modified OPS that is more like: (OBP*3)+SLG = Modified OPS score

In that weighting, Kielty by far comes out scoring as more valuable. So this deal does not suprise me from the Blue Jays perspective.

Likewise If I recall correctly, the Twins do not follow that same theology, and thus would prefer to have Stewart in the deal.

Good point. I had suspected that this was the case and recently saw it explained in a way that made sense. Basically, if you have a 1.000 OBP, you would bat infinitely because you could not make an out and would therefore score infinite runs, but if you have a 1.000 SLG, you would, at some point make outs (although now that I think about, I guess a team that hit infinite singles would not make an out).

[IMetTrentGreen]

ops is NOT a more proving stat. it doesn't reflect that obp is 3 times as important as slg%. ah, i see lan t said that already

but ops is just another reason kielty is better. cheer up bbor, you actually got a better player, for longer

[lynchjm24]

Originally posted by Alan T
Some would disagree that OPS weights slugging percentage too highly and OBP too low. If I remember right, the Blue Jays are along those lines of thinking who would weight OBP 2 or 3 times more than SLG when then adding it to a modified OPS that is more like: (OBP*3)+SLG = Modified OPS score

In that weighting, Kielty by far comes out scoring as more valuable. So this deal does not suprise me from the Blue Jays perspective.

Likewise If I recall correctly, the Twins do not follow that same theology, and thus would prefer to have Stewart in the deal.

Well it's Depodesta who uses a factor of 3 for OBP with the A's. Runs scored correlates best with a factor of 1.7*OBP + SLG.

The advantage for Kielty over Stewart is the fact that he is younger, and is not expensive over the next few years.

I wouldn't imagine that the PTBNL is the anything worthwhile, but it's hard to really judge what happened without seeing who that player is.

Here is my problem with the Twins. They have so many players that do the same thing and now they have held onto them for so long that it has stunted their development. They have shortened their major league careers and they are nearing a point where they have thrown away the 2003 season, because they haven't moved some of these players for things that they can use, a heck of a lot more then ANOTHER outfielder.

I hate the fact that a guy like Mike Cuddyer (yes I know he's hurt and out for the season now), has been buried by the organization when he should be in the lineup every single day.

Not to mention they do some pretty stupid things like let David Ortiz just walk away. They did a tremendous job accumulating talent, there are guys like Lew Ford and Todd Sears who noone really talks about who should also be getting a chance in the major leagues. However knowing Minnesota they will let them rot in Rochester.

[Ksyrup]

Originally posted by ISiddiqui
I don't think I'm overestimating Stewart's ability. I think he's equal to Kielty, so I don't see why Toronto is paying someone else to play him as well as paying Kiety's salary (which probably isn't that much anyway), and then giving up someone else. It just seems a bit too much.

If Toronto didn't have to pay for Stewart at all, it would have been a great move. Now, it's just a 'eh' move.

You're only looking at this from a Year 1 vantage point. After this year, they were looking at either resigning Stewart for a boatload of money, or losing him with no equal value back. Now, they get a cheap player who is a reasonable facsimile of Stewart, for the next couple of years. That's why they were willing to pay his salary this year. If they insisted that Minnesota pay all or a portion of his salary, they wouldn't have gotten anyone near as good as Kielty.

[ISiddiqui]

Well that's only if you believe the Jays couldn't have gotten anyone better for Stewart (while paying all his salary) and a player to be named, which I think they could have.

[Alan T]

Originally posted by ISiddiqui
Well that's only if you believe the Jays couldn't have gotten anyone better for Stewart, which I think they could have.

I am not so sure of this. They had been trying to trade Stewart for several seasons.. I have to believe that other teams just were not offering what they wanted for Stewart.... THey easily are getting more here for Stewart than they did in their trade of Raul Mondesi last year for instance.

[ISiddiqui]

Well that's true... but I think that just means the Jays aren't trying hard enough .

I'd like to see what other teams were offering for Stewart. I know plenty showed interest in him.

[Ksyrup]

It might have been as simple as getting a guy who is ready to play in the majors now, but with a reasonable salary, vs. getting prospects a couple of years away, even if they had a lot of potential. Maybe it was worth taking a little less of a player now, rather than getting someone with more potential but who couldn't help the team until 2005.

[ISiddiqui]

Well, if some posters are correct and Lidle and Escobar are going to be traded soon, getting someone that is ready to play now would be strange, since they don't think they'll compete now.

[Cards4ever]

I think it's pretty even trade when you hash it all out, if the Twins win the division and Stewart is a factor, then I think that validates the trade right there.

[bbor]

Originally posted by ISiddiqui
Well, if some posters are correct and Lidle and Escobar are going to be traded soon, getting someone that is ready to play now would be strange, since they don't think they'll compete now.

JP has said all along that they are aiming for 04...or rather more likely 05 with this team,anything success they had before those years was gonna be gravy.This seems like him just staying the course and heading in that direction.

Getting prospects at this point for Stewart would be too late for the 05 season...usually these prospect take 4-5 years to develop.

That being said...since the trade there has been a huge outpouring of love for Stewart...Radio talk shows have been flooded with calls about how he was a stand up guy who never met a fan he did'nt like.

Minny is getting a quality guy who hopefully down the road may find his way back to Toronto.

[daedalus]

Originally posted by ISiddiqui
I'd like to see what other teams were offering for Stewart. I know plenty showed interest in him.

That was my initial reaction as well. But a possibility is that Ricciardi did not wanted to be stuck with a player he did not intend to keep (or be stuck with an expensive arbitration case, a la Maddux) and just decided to get out while he can get a quality player. There are quite a number of teams looking for a bat for sure, but there are also quite a number of sellers. If he gets out now, he can get the player he wants rather than the best of what is left. (Flip side is, of course, a team might have gotten desperate enough that he got more than value.)

One example of this might have been the Mets. If some of Gammons' information (as oppose to his opinions) is to be believed, the Mets supposedly turned down the trade that the Rangers got for Urbina because they insisted on Stokes (the 2nd round pick the same year the Marlins drafted Gonzalez, led the minors in slugging last year) when the Marlins went to the Rangers for Urbina instead. If that is true, then what they got instead seems to pale. I know nothing about the kids that the Mets got but one is a 22 year old in A-ball and another is a 24 year old in A-ball and neither is a starter (they have mix starting and relieving appearances). That just doesn't sound promising.

[sterlingice]

Originally posted by daedalus
One example of this might have been the Mets. If some of Gammons' information (as oppose to his opinions) is to be believed, the Mets supposedly turned down the trade that the Rangers got for Urbina because they insisted on Stokes (the 2nd round pick the same year the Marlins drafted Gonzalez, led the minors in slugging last year) when the Marlins went to the Rangers for Urbina instead. If that is true, then what they got instead seems to pale. I know nothing about the kids that the Mets got but one is a 22 year old in A-ball and another is a 24 year old in A-ball and neither is a starter (they have mix starting and relieving appearances). That just doesn't sound promising.

I used to think he was a baseball genius but it seems like Gammon's information is getting less and less credible by the year. By the wording here, it seems as if you believe the same way.

SI

[Alan T]

I think with Gammons you have to just be careful to read through some of what he says. You have to realize that he is greatly east coast biased in both his interest and his opinions...

Even with that though, he generally has a better outlet at receiving some of this information than alot of journalist. He does at a national scale what many do at local scales in uncovering hidden information. THe main problem is you have to read through his slant to discern what the truth is.

[lynchjm24]

Originally posted by Alan T
I think with Gammons you have to just be careful to read through some of what he says. You have to realize that he is greatly east coast biased in both his interest and his opinions...

Even with that though, he generally has a better outlet at receiving some of this information than alot of journalist. He does at a national scale what many do at local scales in uncovering hidden information. THe main problem is you have to read through his slant to discern what the truth is.

You have to remember it's not always his slant. Plenty of GMs plant things with him to drive up a market on their player or to get an idea what the reaction for things would be.

[Travis]

The part that pisses me off is that the Jays are sending out a 'waving the flag' vibe with this. We're still easily in contention for the wild card and even the division if we can put together a good run. We need help in the pen if we're going to do that, and he doesn't have to sacrifice the future for that, hell, we're going to need that help in '04 or '05 anyways, so pick up somebody who can be a closer, Politte isn't that man.

[lynchjm24]

Originally posted by Travis
The part that pisses me off is that the Jays are sending out a 'waving the flag' vibe with this. We're still easily in contention for the wild card and even the division if we can put together a good run. We need help in the pen if we're going to do that, and he doesn't have to sacrifice the future for that, hell, we're going to need that help in '04 or '05 anyways, so pick up somebody who can be a closer, Politte isn't that man.

No offense, I like the Blue Jays and JP a lot, but that division is just about out of reach. They are only 2 games closer to the wildcard and there are 2 more teams involved. The Jays would probably need to go something like 46-21 to go to the playoffs, and that's not happening with that rotation.