For the love of all that is holy, why can't SOMEONE get this right???

[Ben E Lou]

EDIT: Never mind. I figured out how to do it.

The average age in 2004 at which position players got their first AB in MLB was 24.451, breaking down as follows:

18-20: 1 (19.347)
20-20.99: 6
21-21.99: 18
22-22.99: 18
23-23.99: 40
24-24.99: 34
25-25.99: 36
26-26.99: 23
27-27.99: 13
28-28.99: 13
29-29.99: 2
30-30.99: 2
31-31.99: 0
32-32.99: 1
33-33.99: 0
34-34.99: 0
35-35.99: 0
36 and up: 0

[Ben E Lou]

Can't get it formatted just right. Here's the page with the data: http://www.baseball-reference.com/le...04_debut.shtml

[henry296]

Skydog,

Average is 24.40 with a standard deviation of 2.22. The median is 24.2

Now for some statistics talk... The data is pretty normally distributed. Therfore about 68% of the players should be between 22.18 and 27.62. There really are 2 outliers with ages of 32 and 35, both Japanese players... Shingo Takatsu and Akinori Otsuka. There was 1 player under 20 and that was B.J. Upton.

Todd

[Ben E Lou]

I'm going to look at the data from 2000-2004, to get a five-year average.

[HomerJSimpson]

Originally Posted by SkyDog

Good suggestions, Homer. How 'bout posting them in the Mogul forums, too, so Clay has an actual chance of seeing them.

Because they have long been posted by others and ignored.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by HomerJSimpson

Because they have long been posted by others and ignored.

I just did a search, and I only find three mentions of the expansion bug you mentioned (and only one--by Todd--yesterday) that specifically details that it impacts teams that start with "A". I haven't seen anyone mention the idea of moving Bats/Throws to another page. Again, Clay has made it quite clear that the squeaky wheel is going to get the grease. This guy, in response to Todd's comment about the expansion teams, clearly has the right idea:

SFSteveG Mogul Registered: Jan 2005 Location: Northlake, IL(NW Chicago suburb) Posts: 288	It was mentioned somewhere else (I think it was a while ago) and I don't remember hearing anything about it being fixed or looked at. Voicing your opinion and making it known that people care is the best way to fix issues here. __________________ W007! W007! Opening Weekend tix! Right next to the Wrigley press box but whatever. WOO! Gonna be fun! Report this post to a moderator | IP: Logged
04-05-2005 01:16 AM

[HomerJSimpson]

Originally Posted by SkyDog

I just did a search, and I only find three mentions of the expansion bug you mentioned (and only one--by Todd--yesterday) that specifically details that it impacts teams that start with "A". I haven't seen anyone mention the idea of moving Bats/Throws to another page. Again, Clay has made it quite clear that the squeaky wheel is going to get the grease. This guy, in response to Todd's comment about the expansion teams, clearly has the right idea:

I'm not interested in being a squeky wheel. The batting/arm thing has been a complaint since I first played the first BM, so it is not like it has just happened. My previous experience with this series tells me the squeaky wheel gets ignored or attacked by "fan boys."

[Ben E Lou]

2000: 24.82 (Joe Strong at 37.25 that year, and Kazuhiro Sasaki at 32.04)
2001: 24.26 (few unusual debuts...only one over 30.25: Jalal Leach at 32.18)
2002: 24.68 (three Japanese players ages 32.32, 33.08, 36.2)
2003: 24.66 (nothing hugely out of proportion, but three players over 30.35)

Five-season average age of debut, 2000-2004: 24.57

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by HomerJSimpson

I'm not interested in being a squeky wheel. The batting/arm thing has been a complaint since I first played the first BM, so it is not like it has just happened. My previous experience with this series tells me the squeaky wheel gets ignored or attacked by "fan boys."

All I know is that the more I've given feedback, the more Clay seems to be trying to address the issues I've brought up. It has been very easy to fend off the few fanboys over there with cold, hard statistics.

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by SkyDog

Hmmm.....I did a little tweaking of these and ran a 100-year sim. I got hitters' average ages to improve quite a bit, while getting pitchers a little too young, but not terrible (average age has been 27.5-28.0...should be somewhere in the 28.7 range) Since this thing sims so fast, I'll do another tweak and run another test. One promising side effect of younger players in my 100-year sim: *Every* team made the playoffs at least once, the Yanks only won 25 World Championships, and no team averaged 100 losses per season. Here's the rookies.ini file I used:
Here are the original settings:

With these settings, a slugger hit exactly 755 homers. His career development went as follows:

• Drafted 1(9) at age 18.
• Went straight to the majors at 18. (Not a huge problem here. He was with Milwaukee--probably a half-decent and cheap option.
• Struggled in first year, but showed some promise: .197-20-73
• .268-30-85 at age 19.
• Missed a big chunk of years at ages 20 and 21 due to injury. Was having a breakout year at age 20, but struggled in his return at age 21.
• .254-30-86 at age 22
• .266-48-113 at age 23
• .308-64-146 at age 24
• Prime years age 24-33. Average ranged from .270-.317 during this time, no full season with less than 33 homers during this time
• Looks like he's starting to fade at 34: .252-32-86
• From age 34-37, averages range from .252-.281, HR's range from 27-39
• Part-time player at 38, but hits 24 homers in only 222 AB's.
• Fades at age 39, spend second half of season in AAA, then retires.

Not bad. Just one player, but not bad.

Here's another, a player who had 3,537 hits:

• Drafted 1(23) in 2043, at age 18.
• Age 18: 200 AB's in AA, 13 AB's in AAA
• Age 19: 327 AB's in AAA, 316 AB's in MLB: .234-4-25
• Age 20: first full season in MLB: .301-15-78
• Ages 21-23: doesn't crack .300 either of these years, but ranges from .268-.295, with 15-23 HR's
• Age 24: .338-29-125
• Really in his prime statistically from ages 24-37: .271-.338, 14-33 HR's. At age 37 he was .317-19-70
• Finally began to fade at age 38: .217-20-58
• .224-16-59 at age 39, and done.

One more check. I wanted to look at a random solid starter, but not a Hall Of Famer. I run across 40-year-old Walt Drudge. He was an everyday player for 12 seasons, is a .268 lifetime hitter with 254 homers, 973 RBI's, and 2017 hits. Here's his story:

• Drafted 2(17) at age 21
• Age 21: 422 AB's in A-Ball, 12 AB's in AA
• Age 22: 318 AB's in A-Ball, 70 AB's in AA, 17 in MLB
• Age 23: 366 AB's in AA, 148 in AAA, 54 in MLB
• Age 24: 20 AB's in AAA, 609 in MLB: .251-17-67
• Ages 25 and 26: .258-14-65 and .246-12-51
• Breakthrough year at 27: .270-28-82
• Prime years 27-32: ranged from .270-.293, HR's from 23-34 during that time
• 33-35 was .244-11-72, .256-15-81, .270-13-52
• Pinch hitter for rest of his career. Best year as PH was at age 36: 69 G's, 75 AB's, .293 average

Tweaking rookies.ini a little (lowering pitcher number), and running another sim. Thoughts on these development curves?

Quite a surprise to read this!! Thanks a much! Results like this are definitly going to get me into this game. Bravo.

I think we're getting there.


Todd

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by HomerJSimpson

I'm not interested in being a squeky wheel. The batting/arm thing has been a complaint since I first played the first BM, so it is not like it has just happened. My previous experience with this series tells me the squeaky wheel gets ignored or attacked by "fan boys."

Not true. If you don't voice your opinion(s), don't expect a fix.

Go over there and post issues like the ones you are mentioning. There are a few FOFC members over there, so don't fret.


Todd

[Ben E Lou]

A new 50-year sim, with the following sets:

,ROOKIES.INI
,Used by Baseball Mogul versions 5.2.6.0 and later
,(All lines beginning with a comma are ignored)
,To adjust the talent level of rookies created at each position, edit the number after each position name.
,To adjust the OVERALL talent level, edit the values for all positions.
,100 is considered 'normal'. Lower numbers reduce talent level at this position and higher numbers raise it.

Pitcher,110
Catcher,99
First Baseman,99
Second Baseman,99
Third Baseman,99
Shortstop,95
Left Fielder,95
Center Fielder,99
Right Fielder,99
Designated Hitter,99

AGES
I did five different check points, just sort of randomly, on player age: 2026, 2032, 2037, 2045, 2054. Here are the overall averages from those checkpoints:

pitchers: 27.58
hitters: 28.67

That's very, very close for hitters, and close enough for me for pitchers, considering the following:

LEAGUE-WIDE STATS
(current season)
NL: .258 avg, .405 slg, 4.19 ERA
AL: .263 avg, .422 slg, 4.29 ERA

PLAYER DEVELOPMENT EXAMPLES
Just picked these three guys at random from the different categories I've looked at...

HOF SLUGGER (660 HR's, 2263 H's, .258 Avg)
Drafted in 2022 at age 19, went straight to MLB

• .207-14-48 in 397 AB's at age 19
• .227-25-72 and .234-20-57 age 20 and age 21
• Began to come into his own at age 22, .253-36-96.
• From age 23 to age 34 he was pretty much in his prime, with one off year (.225-32-93) at age 29. Other than that year, from 23-34 his homers ranged from 34-51, and average ranged from .256-.315.
• Fractured hip and missed four months at age 35, returned late in year: 152 AB's, .230-12-35
• Clearly in decline at age 36: .215-22-52
• Pinch hitter at ages 37 and 38. 18 HR's in 311 AB's over those two year, but average around .200.
• Retired at age 38.

HOF CONTACT/LEADOFF HITTER (3376 hits, 901 SB's, 0 career HR's )

• Drafted 1(14) in 2035, at age 19
• 128 AB's in AAA that year, before getting called up to MLB: 296 AB's, .291 avg, 22 SB's
• age 20, 124 AB's, 9 SB's
• age 21, full-time starter, .267, 63 SB's
• age 22 & 23, .294-58 and .301-42
• In his prime from 24-34, with one bad year (age 30: .25, 25 SBs, 249 AB's...injured most of year). Other than that year, from age 24-34 ranged from .282-.348--and .282 was the only other year under .315 during that stretch.
• Effective player 35-37: .290-37, .277-30, .288-36
• Bench player, pinch runner (I assume) at age 38: 94 AB's, 10 SB's, 17 runs.
• Retired at age 38.

GOOD PLAYER, NON-HOFer

• Drafted 1(14) in 2035 at age 21.
• Most of 2035 in A-ball, split 2036 between A and AA, split 2037 between AA and AAA
• 2038 (age 24), 368 AB's in AAA, then 42 AB's in MLB
• age 25, .315-14-90
• age 26-27, .288-23-82, .297-24-82
• prime age 28-35: homers 27-33, avg. .295-.353
• age 36, .282-23-69
• at 37, .274-14-59
• minimal playing time at 38 and 39

[Ben E Lou]

And just as I posted the above, I see that Clay posted this a few minutes ago:

Clay Dreslough Mr. Blog Registered: Jun 2001 Location: Ashford, Connecticut Posts: 1976	Working on the "giving up" part right now (marginal 30-year-olds with little if any playing time will retire). Clay __________________ Clay Dreslough Sports Mogul Inc. Report this post to a moderator | IP: Logged
04-05-2005 02:52 PM

[rjolley]

One thing that comes to mind as I look over SD's age stats is, when these 18 and 19 year olds debuted, did it make sense to have those kids struggle in the majors instead of play in the minors for a season or so? Someone brought this up earlier, and I didn't want it to be lost. I don't think BBM is set up to determine that by showing rosters from that season, but it would be nice to know.

Thanks for all of your hard work, SD.

[st.cronin]

IRL there are very few players who STRUGGLE in the majors as teenagers. Even great prospects aren't usually brought to the majors before 20 or 21 unless it's just obvious that they are ready (Alex Rodriguez, for example).

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

IRL there are very few players who STRUGGLE in the majors as teenagers. Even great prospects aren't usually brought to the majors before 20 or 21 unless it's just obvious that they are ready (Alex Rodriguez, for example).

Could be a money issue and the primary player is injured? SD will snuff this out.


Todd

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by MizzouRah

Could be a money issue and the primary player is injured? SD will snuff this out.


Todd

I've got another 100-year test running right now, but I'm not going to fool with it terribly much until the get-rid-of-30-year-olds-who-suck patch is released. I'm guessing that could make a pretty big difference, when all those scrubs aren't blocking the minors.

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by SkyDog

I've got another 100-year test running right now, but I'm not going to fool with it terribly much until the get-rid-of-30-year-olds-who-suck patch is released. I'm guessing that could make a pretty big difference, when all those scrubs aren't blocking the minors.

Great, maybe within a day or two.. hopefully.


Todd

[Buccaneer]

I would be interested in seeing how all of this (player age distributions) impact the development of historical players in a historical league.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by Shaun Sullivan

Great data! Just what I was looking for thanks.

Shaun let us know if you are able to make any progress on this with your game. I t's a greta product and glad to see you coming over here to FOFC which is the best place to here from some real knowledgeable sports game simmers(Which I am sure you already know).

[Dreslough]

Originally Posted by SkyDog

OOTP---Mogul----PureSim, it doesn't matter. NONE of them seem to have the first clue when it comes to young players making their debuts at anything resembling the proper time. I downloaded the PureSim demo last night, and let it run 25 seasons overnight.

New Version posted (8.08) with significant work done in this area. Average age in my sims for starting lineup players is down from ~31 to 28.7.

I've also added some new stats to the Roster Dialog like "Debut Age" so you can more easily track this stuff.

And I finally got the Fictional Database feature fully implemented for everyone who's been waiting for it...

Clay

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Dreslough

New Version posted (8.08) with significant work done in this area. Average age in my sims for starting lineup players is down from ~31 to 28.7.

I've also added some new stats to the Roster Dialog like "Debut Age" so you can more easily track this stuff.

And I finally got the Fictional Database feature fully implemented for everyone who's been waiting for it...

Clay

This is some great wake-up news! Thanks, Clay.

--Ben

[Dreslough]

Hey SkyDog,

Where do you get your data that the average age of everyday players (350+ AB) should be about 28.7?

If you look at all players with 350+ AB in 2004, the average age is 29.93.

Modelling baseball into the future, it seems like 2004 is a pretty good year to try to match. If anything, players are going to get a bit older on average.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Dreslough

Hey SkyDog,

Where do you get your data that the average age of everyday players (350+ AB) should be about 28.7?

That was from a study done from 1980-2003. You're right in that it has increased over time. (For the entire period 1900-2003, I think it was around 28.2 or so.) I'll check a five-year average (2000-2004). That would probably be the best check-in, woudn't it?

[Ben E Lou]

Found some overall numbers pretty quickly. Here are two key numbers for you:

AVERAGE AGE AT MLB DEBUT OF POSITION PLAYERS, 2000-2004: 24.57
AVERAGE AGE OF ALL POSITION PLAYERS COMING TO BAT IN MLB, 2000-2004: 29.36

[Ben E Lou]

Still checking for a relatively easy way to find the 2000-2004 everyday player average ages...

[Ben E Lou]

Bingo. Found it. This should take more than a few minutes now...

[Ben E Lou]

Clay,

If you're still here, check your data. I just did AL 2004, and it came out to 29.03. That's much closer to the 1980-2003 figure than the number you posted...

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by Dreslough

New Version posted (8.08) with significant work done in this area. Average age in my sims for starting lineup players is down from ~31 to 28.7.

I've also added some new stats to the Roster Dialog like "Debut Age" so you can more easily track this stuff.

And I finally got the Fictional Database feature fully implemented for everyone who's been waiting for it...

Clay

Great news! I think I might actually start my career tonight. Really like the "Debut Age" addition.

Todd

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by MizzouRah

Great news! I think I might actually start my career tonight. Really like the "Debut Age" addition.

Todd

Mizz,
Htae to be the bear of bad news but I just read at BM board that SkyDog is reporting that now te AI is discarding players to minors or retiring to early. So, now we got the opposite problem it oumnd slike. But not to worry SkyDog is still trying to help clay with tis and I am confident they can eventually fix this.

Quote from BM board fro today by SkyDog:
Well, average age has improved tremendously, and is pretty much dead-on. However, mid-to-late 30's players are getting sacrficed on the altar of youth far more often than IRL. In my current season, no player above age 34 had as many as 400 AB's, and no player over 35 had as many as 300. Pitchers are more troubling. Only five pitchers aged 35 and up threw 50 IP or more (none more 100), and only ONE pitcher 33 and up had 162 IP. It looks like everyone is aging WAY too fast, and pitchers are making their debuts too early. Average age of hitters is very good, so it sounds like in order to make this more realistic, the best players should be contributing longer (or maybe have longer peak years...I noticed the change to 25-->30 in this patch), and a few more young players should be playing every day to balance that out.

[Ben E Lou]

NL2004: 29.50
NL2003: 29.58
NL2002: 29.31
NL2001: 29.24
NL2000: 28.97
NL AVERAGE: 29.32

AL2004: 29.03
AL2003: 28.39
AL2002: 28.98
AL2001: 28.93
AL2000: 29.17
AL AVERAGE: 28.90

I think it is worth noting that the numbers fluctuate a good bit. The AL was actually younger in 2004 than it was is 2000, so I don't think an increase over time would be good. Based on these numbers, I'd consider shooting for the 29.0-29.2 range. (EDIT: which means we should be calculating it on October 1st as 29.25-29.45.)

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Dreslough

If you look at all players with 350+ AB in 2004, the average age is 29.93.

No need to re-check your data. I now have a pretty strong idea where you got that number...and the flaw in the process. If you output from BM, usign the Team-->Rosters screen, that's the number you get. The problem is this: those age figures are based on April 1st, 2005, not 2004. That number is going to be approximately 3/4 year too high. Btw, though, Mogul numbers *should* be .25 years higher than the Baseball Reference fiegures I posted, because BR uses end-of-year stats, but bases age on July 1st age. When I calculate it in Mogul, I'm calculating it at the end of the regular season--usually right around October 1st.

[MizzouRah]

Oh well, it looks positive at least. SD is getting there with his studies and has Clay's attention.


Todd

[Dreslough]

Originally Posted by SkyDog

No need to re-check your data. I now have a pretty strong idea where you got that number...and the flaw in the process. If you output from BM, usign the Team-->Rosters screen, that's the number you get. The problem is this: those age figures are based on April 1st, 2005, not 2004. That number is going to be approximately 3/4 year too high. Btw, though, Mogul numbers *should* be .25 years higher than the Baseball Reference fiegures I posted, because BR uses end-of-year stats, but bases age on July 1st age. When I calculate it in Mogul, I'm calculating it at the end of the regular season--usually right around October 1st.

Good point. I just simmed 35 years in Mogul and got an average age, on April 1, 2041, of 29.71, for all players with 350+ AB in 2040.

When I do the same in 2005, I get 29.93 (for actual player data from 2004).

So the averages pretty much match. I see how this is higher than your data, but with this comparison I'm comparing apples to apples so I think we've got the average pretty good.

The flaw I see (that you pointed out) is only 14 of those players are 35 or older (compared to 30 such players in 2004) so I'll work on that part.

Clay

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Dreslough

Good point. I just simmed 35 years in Mogul and got an average age, on April 1, 2041, of 29.71, for all players with 350+ AB in 2040.

When I do the same in 2005, I get 29.93 (for actual player data from 2004).

Duh. That makes a lot more sense than what I was doing. (Simming multiple seasons and having to click in and stop it on October 1st.)

Looking forward to the update on this. Thanks for your dedication to getting this right!

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by SkyDog

Duh. That makes a lot more sense than what I was doing. (Simming multiple seasons and having to click in and stop it on October 1st.)

Looking forward to the update on this. Thanks for your dedication to getting this right!

Ditto on the dedication on this.Good work Clay and SD.

[Ben E Lou]

Version 8.09:

• Stat discrepancies fixed with "Fictional Players" option
  
• Fixed contract lengths with "Fictional Players" option
  
• Player aging algorithms and AI adjusted
  
• Find Players no longer shows Hall Of Fame players during Fantasy Draft
  
• Some small text bugs fixed

Anyone heard any news from Shaun?

[rjolley]

Nope, nothing mentioned on his board. I posted a question asking about it.

[Shaun Sullivan]

Sorry guys been busy at my real job during the week.

I'll have another look this weekend.

[OldGiants]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

dola

Kranepool had 279 at bats and hit just .209. This was the 1963 NY Mets, so I'm not sure that even counts.

According to Casey, "The Youth of America."

The following spring, reporters asked him about the Mets two 19-year old phenoms, Ed Kranepool and Greg Goossen.

Casey said, "In ten years Mr. Kranepool has a very good chance to be a star. In ten years, Mr. Goossen has a very good chance to be 29."