Poker: another hand to analyze - Page 2

digamma · 09-22-2005, 01:51 PM

Easy push.

QuikSand · 09-22-2005, 01:56 PM

Well, how can you have any question what to do at this point?

You made a middling bet to open, because you were willing to take the risk of an ace on the flop. I'm not wild about it... I like pushing all-in there to begin with... but that's not a ridiculous decision.

Now you have made a middling bet here, in hopes that he will fold. Why not push it all in? Because you are leaving yourself the out to fold if he raises. That is the only defensible logic for what you have done so far. So you fold here, and hope against hope that you can limp on and perhaps double up elsewhere.

Of course, given the fact that we have this multi-part thread for maximum drama, what you will actually do is call, you will see that you are beaten, I'd guess by a modest ace, and against all hope you will river him with your gutshot straight, I have to assume.

Nice hand, sir.

Koryo · 09-22-2005, 01:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Honolulu Blue

My thoughts after the flop:

Ah, doody. An ace AND two other high cards. What am I afraid of? KQ gives him the nut straight and I have 3 outs just to tie. AA gives me 4 outs. AK and AQ give me 5 outs. JJ, TT, JT, and Ax all give me 6 outs. Otherwise I have the best hand. There are lots of things he could call with preflop that I can beat. Do I have the best hand? I think so. Therefore, I should bet. Now.

I bet a nice, even 1000 chips. Down to 1230.

Please fold. Please please please please please please please please. I've got you beat and you know it. So fold, pretty please?

Mr. Big Blind promptly responded with a raise to 2000. Uh oh.

Now what?

I'm guessing either AJ or AT. He didn't make enough of a raise to put you all-in so he's kept it something less than do-or-die. He figures if you do have a K or Q (or both) then he can split the pot maybe or possibly pair up to a full boat. A raise like this here definitely makes me think that you are behind at this point. His calling of the raise preflop makes me think that him holding a high pair is unlikely.

He's got a good hand but my feeling is that he sees a few outs on the board which can beat him.

Butter · 09-22-2005, 02:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuikSand

That is the only defensible logic for what you have done so far.

I get the feeling Quik may not like your play here....

QuikSand · 09-22-2005, 02:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

I get the feeling Quik may not like your play here....

Well, I don't think the play is awful - assuming that he'll fold to the (essentially) all-in raise. He took a risk, trying to increase his chances of crushing an unsuspecting guy with a big all-in move... the board didn't cooperate, and he still has a chance to get out when he's beaten.

But if he calls the raise, after praying for a fold, then there is no reason at all why he didn't just get all the chips in to begin with, thereby increasing the chance that the prayed-for fold would occur.

Subby · 09-22-2005, 03:36 PM

Well, if he's a good player he could just be instinctively trying to snap off a continuation bet by HB, too.

kcchief19 · 09-22-2005, 04:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Of course, given the fact that we have this multi-part thread for maximum drama, what you will actually do is call, you will see that you are beaten, I'd guess by a modest ace, and against all hope you will river him with your gutshot straight, I have to assume.

Nice hand, sir.

See, I'm still stuck on HB starting out by saying it's nice to be lucky and good. I think he will call go all-in, and end up getting his money in with the best hand when his opponent flips over pocket nines. The turn will bring a nine making his opponent's set, and the river will bring the miracle king.

Of course, I frequently lose.

kingfc22 · 09-22-2005, 08:07 PM

If this is a top-3 paid tourney, then I would go all-in here knowing I already won some cash. If this was a bubble situation, then I fold.

Butter · 09-23-2005, 07:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kingfc22

If this is a top-3 paid tourney, then I would go all-in here knowing I already won some cash. If this was a bubble situation, then I fold.

That's what I was thinking too. But as you know, it's all about trying to win... blah blah blah.... but I like just making the money. Another hallmark of the below average player. I like to win once I get to the money, but I'll take more chances knowing that if I lose, at least I already got my money back, plus a little.

KevinNU7 · 09-23-2005, 09:56 AM

This thread took to long

Subby · 09-23-2005, 10:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

That's what I was thinking too. But as you know, it's all about trying to win... blah blah blah.... but I like just making the money. Another hallmark of the below average player. I like to win once I get to the money, but I'll take more chances knowing that if I lose, at least I already got my money back, plus a little.

I think that is the right attitude, actually. Make the money, play for first, settle for 3rd.

digamma · 09-23-2005, 10:14 AM

In a slightly different variation of this hand, last night, I got Q-Q on the button. I was relatively short stacked (an hour and a half into a multi-table). I had roughly 10x the big blind (1950 and the BB was 200). The CO was a big stack (over 10k). He raised to 600. I pushed. He called with his A-small suited and made a flush on the river. I watched television with the wife.

stevew · 09-23-2005, 10:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KevinNU7

This thread took to long

Yep.

Subby · 09-23-2005, 10:42 AM

If you had just open pushed, this thread would have been over days ago

Seriously, open push and one hands beat you, while numerous hands call 3-way, especially when the callers have you covered.

Honolulu Blue · 09-23-2005, 12:31 PM

Thanks for the commentary, everyone. I promise this is the end.

Let's see, where were we - pocket kings, AJT board, facing a reraise for most of my stack. My thoughts at the time:

Got an ace, eh? Or do you want me to THINK you have an ace? Well, if you've got one, I've got outs. And if you don't, you're (probably) screwed. No guts, no glory...

I went all-in for my last 1230 chips. Mr. Big Blind called. He turned over Ad, 8d.

So he did have it after all. It could've been worse. I've got all the queens and both remaining kings to make a better hand.

The turn comes Kd. Baby!

But this brings a new set of outs for Mr. Big Blind. All the diamonds, except the ace or jack, would give him a flush. And any queen (save the Qd) would yield a straight and a split pot. So, I've got all those cards to dodge.

"No diamond! No queen!"

The river came Ts. My kings full beat his aces up.

This poker thing, piece of cake, right?

Sometimes it's best to be lucky AND good. BTW, I went on to win this tournament.

NEXT: 7h, 2s in the small blind! Dissected in 17 parts!!

Butter · 09-23-2005, 12:34 PM

A lot of times, I barely have time enough to call, see the other person's hand, and think about what they have before the turn and river are dealt in these types of situations. Sometimes I've won (or lost), without even realizing it for about 3 seconds.

Congrats. And as for the 2-7, that's a definite push.

09-22-2005, 03:36 PM	#56
Subby lolzcat Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: sans pants	Well, if he's a good player he could just be instinctively trying to snap off a continuation bet by HB, too. __________________ Superman was flying around and saw Wonder Woman getting a tan in the nude on her balcony. Superman said I going to hit that real fast. So he flys down toward Wonder Woman to hit it and their is a loud scream. The Invincible Man scream what just hit me in the ass!!!!! I do shit, I take pictures, I write about it: chrisshue.com

09-22-2005, 08:07 PM	#58
kingfc22 Head Coach Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Morgan Hill, CA	If this is a top-3 paid tourney, then I would go all-in here knowing I already won some cash. If this was a bubble situation, then I fold. __________________ Fan of SF Giants, 49ers, Sharks, Arsenal

09-23-2005, 09:56 AM	#60
KevinNU7 College Starter Join Date: May 2003 Location: Beantown	This thread took to long __________________ Boston Bashers - III.14 - (8347)

09-23-2005, 10:42 AM	#64
Subby lolzcat Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: sans pants	If you had just open pushed, this thread would have been over days ago Seriously, open push and one hands beat you, while numerous hands call 3-way, especially when the callers have you covered. __________________ Superman was flying around and saw Wonder Woman getting a tan in the nude on her balcony. Superman said I going to hit that real fast. So he flys down toward Wonder Woman to hit it and their is a loud scream. The Invincible Man scream what just hit me in the ass!!!!! I do shit, I take pictures, I write about it: chrisshue.com

09-23-2005, 12:31 PM	#65
Honolulu Blue Dynasty Boy Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Michigan	Finis & epilogue Thanks for the commentary, everyone. I promise this is the end. Let's see, where were we - pocket kings, AJT board, facing a reraise for most of my stack. My thoughts at the time: Got an ace, eh? Or do you want me to THINK you have an ace? Well, if you've got one, I've got outs. And if you don't, you're (probably) screwed. No guts, no glory... I went all-in for my last 1230 chips. Mr. Big Blind called. He turned over Ad, 8d. So he did have it after all. It could've been worse. I've got all the queens and both remaining kings to make a better hand. The turn comes Kd. Baby! But this brings a new set of outs for Mr. Big Blind. All the diamonds, except the ace or jack, would give him a flush. And any queen (save the Qd) would yield a straight and a split pot. So, I've got all those cards to dodge. "No diamond! No queen!" The river came Ts. My kings full beat his aces up. This poker thing, piece of cake, right? Sometimes it's best to be lucky AND good. BTW, I went on to win this tournament. NEXT: 7h, 2s in the small blind! Dissected in 17 parts!!

09-22-2005, 01:56 PM	#52
QuikSand lolzcat Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Annapolis, Md	Well, how can you have any question what to do at this point? You made a middling bet to open, because you were willing to take the risk of an ace on the flop. I'm not wild about it... I like pushing all-in there to begin with... but that's not a ridiculous decision. Now you have made a middling bet here, in hopes that he will fold. Why not push it all in? Because you are leaving yourself the out to fold if he raises. That is the only defensible logic for what you have done so far. So you fold here, and hope against hope that you can limp on and perhaps double up elsewhere. Of course, given the fact that we have this multi-part thread for maximum drama, what you will actually do is call, you will see that you are beaten, I'd guess by a modest ace, and against all hope you will river him with your gutshot straight, I have to assume. Nice hand, sir.

09-23-2005, 10:14 AM	#62
digamma Torchbearer Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: On Lake Harriet	In a slightly different variation of this hand, last night, I got Q-Q on the button. I was relatively short stacked (an hour and a half into a multi-table). I had roughly 10x the big blind (1950 and the BB was 200). The CO was a big stack (over 10k). He raised to 600. I pushed. He called with his A-small suited and made a flush on the river. I watched television with the wife.

09-23-2005, 12:34 PM	#66
Butter Coordinator Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Dayton, OH	A lot of times, I barely have time enough to call, see the other person's hand, and think about what they have before the turn and river are dealt in these types of situations. Sometimes I've won (or lost), without even realizing it for about 3 seconds. Congrats. And as for the 2-7, that's a definite push. __________________ My listening habits

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