2016 Presidential Candidates

[finketr]

y'all are assuming there'll be an election in 2016.

or that somehow the term limit amendment will still be there.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

How old will Chelsea be in 2016? Think maybe she runs for Senate in two years, then president in four (ala Bobby Kennedy)?

She's 32, so she'll be barely old enough.

And if her spots on NBC are any indication, I'd say she lacks the charisma for it.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by panerd

I don't know that Akin was super popular. His views became national with the rape stuff but locally (St. Louis at least) everyone kind of already knew him as a religious right guy.

He wasn't, but his numbers in Missouri plumetted after his comments. Which is why McCaskell is kind of a weak choice for VP.

I think if Hillary wants it, she'll get it. Yeah, she'll be 69, but I'm sure she out campaign anyone else, and Andrew Cuomo won't go up against Hillary.

I think Christie is too RINO, Northeast Republican - but who knows how the GOP ends up while in the wilderness.

[Swaggs]

Democrats: Hillary Cinton (Sec. of State, former NY senator), Joe Biden (VP), Mark Warner, (VA senator, former gov), Deval Patrick (Mass governor), Andrew Cuomo (NY Gov), Martin O'Malley (MD governor), Evan Bayh (former IN senator/governor), Joe Manchin (WV senator, former gov).

Republicans: Mike Pence (Gov-elect, Indiana), Jeb Bush (former FL governor), Bobby Jindal (Louisiana governor), Brian Sandoval (NV governor), Haley Barbour (former MS governor), John Thune (SD senator), Chris Christie (NJ governor), Rand Paul (KY senator), John Kasich (governor OH), Bob McDonnell (VA governor), Rick Santorum (former PA senator)

[RainMaker]

Jeb Bush would be a great candidate too. Not sure if the name would kill him though in a general election. He is really not much like his brother (more like his father) and I think would make a great President.

[kcchief19]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

When he was touring with Obama a week ago, it was obvious that he was getting really tired and doing quite a bit of open-mouth breathing. That's not a presidential look. That may pass in Jersey, but it won't fly when you're running for the most powerful office in the land.

Us big guys sweat a lot and get winded. Last thing you want is a sweaty guy with pit stains breathing hard on TV talking about bombing Iran.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Democrats: Hillary Cinton (Sec. of State, former NY senator), Joe Biden (VP), Mark Warner, (VA senator, former gov), Deval Patrick (Mass governor), Andrew Cuomo (NY Gov), Martin O'Malley (MD governor), Evan Bayh (former IN senator/governor), Joe Manchin (WV senator, former gov).

Republicans: Mike Pence (Gov-elect, Indiana), Jeb Bush (former FL governor), Bobby Jindal (Louisiana governor), Brian Sandoval (NV governor), Haley Barbour (former MS governor), John Thune (SD senator), Chris Christie (NJ governor), Rand Paul (KY senator), John Kasich (governor OH), Bob McDonnell (VA governor), Rick Santorum (former PA senator)

Good list. I will say Evan Bayh was asked about his thinking of running on tv last night he said "Yeah, but I am back on my meds now."

[Izulde]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Jeb Bush would be a great candidate too. Not sure if the name would kill him though in a general election. He is really not much like his brother (more like his father) and I think would make a great President.

Is he is more like his father, he's intriguing then. I had and still have a lot of respect for Bush, Sr. Was very articulate when I heard him speak at UWyo back about 7 years ago, and he handled the question about Bush, Jr. getting slammed a lot very well.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Good list. I will say Evan Bayh was asked about his thinking of running on tv last night he said "Yeah, but I am back on my meds now."

He's going to have to learn what a gaffe that comment would be if he were actually running.

[JPhillips]

Bayh and Manchin couldn't sniff a primary win. They have no personality and very little base among Democrats.

On the GOP side Pence is soooo stupid I hope he can't win. Barbour is too Boss Hogg to win. I really think McDonnell is a great candidate even though I disagree with him on everything.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by finketr

y'all are assuming there'll be an election in 2016.

or that somehow the term limit amendment will still be there.

Shh. The black helicopters can hear you.

[Solecismic]

I think the anger at Chris Christie for his comments (what else would have been appropriate given the devastation in his state?) will subside quickly. He will declare as early as he can, and I think his presence will keep some of the other favorites out of the race entirely. He seems quite interested. And if he gains that momentum early he might not have to to pay all that much lip service to the right to gain their backing. So he won't have the Romney (Malleable Mitt, as Jon says, quite accurately) problem of not having a credible stance on so many issues.

On the Democratic side, Warner seems like the favorite, but I think it will be Antonio Villaraigosa, especially if Rubio doesn't look like a strong possibility on the Republican side. That depends on nothing going horribly wrong in LA over the next couple of years.

[Marc Vaughan]

Originally Posted by fortheglory

Chris Christie has no chance...if for any reason because he's fat.

Hey fat people is a growing demographic

(pun intended )

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Chris Christie has no shot in the primary after his Obama praise during the hurricane.

Ding ding ding.

I've seen a considerable amount of commentary about him in the last 20 hours or so, and none of it good. (Unless you consider "fat sumbitch" a term of endearment I guess).

[JonInMiddleGA]

From Swaggs list (which seemed like a pretty fair starting point) I think Barbour ultimately prefers to be kingmaker behind the scenes than king. Bush, Jindal & Santorum seem like the early names, I think Thune runs but does nothing.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Ding ding ding.

I've seen a considerable amount of commentary about him in the last 20 hours or so, and none of it good. (Unless you consider "fat sumbitch" a term of endearment I guess).

If this actually ends up derailing him, comments said under a crisis scenario, that really says a lot about this party and the political climate in this country.

[RainMaker]

Christie's comments actually help him win a Presidency because the voters you need to win in the middle don't want shitheads playing politics with natural disasters. Guess they enjoy snatching defeat from the jaws of victory over and over.

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by finketr

y'all are assuming there'll be an election in 2016.

or that somehow the term limit amendment will still be there.

Tell me this is a parody account, or did SFL Cat or Bubba Wheels come back?

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Democrats: Hillary Cinton (Sec. of State, former NY senator), Joe Biden (VP), Mark Warner, (VA senator, former gov), Deval Patrick (Mass governor), Andrew Cuomo (NY Gov), Martin O'Malley (MD governor), Evan Bayh (former IN senator/governor), Joe Manchin (WV senator, former gov).

Republicans: Mike Pence (Gov-elect, Indiana), Jeb Bush (former FL governor), Bobby Jindal (Louisiana governor), Brian Sandoval (NV governor), Haley Barbour (former MS governor), John Thune (SD senator), Chris Christie (NJ governor), Rand Paul (KY senator), John Kasich (governor OH), Bob McDonnell (VA governor), Rick Santorum (former PA senator)

Cmon Swaggs, what are the odds of Joe Manchin from WV raising money and having a prayer in a Democratic primary?

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Bayh and Manchin couldn't sniff a primary win. They have no personality and very little base among Democrats.

On the GOP side Pence is soooo stupid I hope he can't win. Barbour is too Boss Hogg to win. I really think McDonnell is a great candidate even though I disagree with him on everything.

McDonnell struck me as tremendously polished when he ran for Governor in Virginia.

But he is boilerplate conservative GOP tho, replete with being anti-gay marriage, totally pro-life including the whole trans-vaginal ultrasound legislation in VA, bringing back Confederacy Month, and and he's basically funding the state government by selling off long term assets like Virginia's state-owned liquor stores (which is odd that it exists).

SI

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

Cmon Swaggs, what are the odds of Joe Manchin from WV raising money and having a prayer in a Democratic primary?

I don't think he wins or anything, but I think he is super ambitious and is too old to hold off, so I think he may run. He or Bayh could carve a small niche for the pro-life Dems, but never win.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Izulde

Is he is more like his father, he's intriguing then. I had and still have a lot of respect for Bush, Sr. Was very articulate when I heard him speak at UWyo back about 7 years ago, and he handled the question about Bush, Jr. getting slammed a lot very well.

Isn't the line that Jeb is more like dad while George was more like mom?

SI

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I don't think he wins or anything, but I think he is super ambitious and is too old to hold off, so I think he may run. He or Bayh could carve a small niche for the pro-life Dems, but never win.

I honestly just figured he couldn't raise a $; Cuomo and Hillary will get the Wall Street money and most of the union $; where is Manchin's fundraising base? Coal? Maybe. Tech? No frigging way - most of the Democrats out here in Tech Central would sooner vote for Romney than Manchin. You obviously know more than I do about his ambitions, but its hard to see how he see's an opening - I think he's hit his ceiling.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by kcchief19

Both sides have very depleted benches right now. I'm sure some leftovers from 2012 on the GOP side will jump in like Bachmann and Santorum. I'm sure a Paul will run. Those folks have no chance.

Christie will be the hot pick. GOP anger at him will subside, and he's done nothing but build his moderate credentials. By all accounts Jeb is the best and brightest of the Bushes, but I think we may be Bushed out. Paul Ryan did nothing to lose the election, but I've seen nothing from him that makes me think he's presidential material. He's a charismatic Tim Pawlenty.

Mitch Daniels and Rob Portman will be another GOP fave, but I have doubts. Bobby Jindal and Marco Rubio will get buzz.

I think a lot of Democratic governors will toss their hat in the ring. Joke in Missouri that Jay Nixon's primary campaign starts today. Lot of people will want Andrew Cuomo. Martin O'Malley and Brian Schweitzer are being mentioned too. John Hickenlooper is interesting. For Democrats who want to capitalize on their Latino success, Julian Castro and Antonio Villaraigosa have fans, but I think they should target governor offices before presidential runs.

I'd have a hard time making a case for a 69-year-old Hillary or Biden in 2016. Obama has done the same thing for the Democrats that Bush did for the GOP -- no natural successor to the presidency.

Hard to believe Michael Bloomberg will be 74 in 2016 or now would be the time.

If I had to bet right now, it would be Cuomo vs. Christie. Which guarantees it won't be either one.

excellent post

[JonInMiddleGA]

I'm gonna take this opportunity to retract my earlier dismissal of Barbour as a candidate, or at least to amend that statement after some more reflection.

I don't think Barbour will be a serious contender for the GOP nomination.
I believe there's a fair chance that he might be a serious contender for the nomination of some other party (most likely one that doesn't yet exist).

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

Raised $30M+. She's a Dem fundraising star - more than any other Senator. I don't think she'll be the candidate (she's horribly inarticulate), but fundraising won't be the reason.

I'll stick by my contention - she's too anti Wall Street to get far. There will be too much money against her. Obama has been pillow-soft on the financial meltdown and any consequences from it, and his financial inner-circle has plenty of Wall Street insiders, so while he wasn't preferable vs. Romney, he wasn't viewed as a mortal enemy either.

Unless we see a major uptick in the popularity and influence of the Occupy movement (or a similar grass-roots anti-plutocracy movement), I don't see any way Warren could win a national election.

[CrimsonFox]

Can't we have a little break, sheesh...

[CrimsonFox]

I think Rove goes off the deep deep end and runs himself, that is whenever he stops trying to recalculate Ohio to secure THIS win.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Can't we have a little break, sheesh...

Politics is pretty much like college football recruiting. Full of rumor & innuendo and a year-round sport.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Politics is pretty much like college football recruiting. Full of rumor & innuendo and a year-round sport.

Plus, I'm guessing nobody held a gun to his head to force him to view this thread.

[Chubby]

I think with Obama's win Cuomo def goes for it in '16. His charsima isn't quite to his dad's level but its up there as I think his drive is too. He seems to be following his dad's footsteps so yeah, I think he's in the race regardless of Hill in '16. If he was going up against a repub incumbant in '16 I think it'd be a much tougher call

[SteveMax58]

I can see Jeb getting in the mix & winning the GOP nomination pretty handily. A couple of others might give it a run. Rand/Ron Paul, Christie (maybe...not convinced he wants it), maybe Jindall, probably Rubio. But Jeb wipes the floor with all of them as he's smart as hell & has a statesman appeal to him. I dont think the Bush name matters at all for him by 2016 (at least to the point where its a disqualifier like it would have been in 2008).

I cant see Hillary running on the Dem side. IDK...maybe but I think she's done by then. My guess is she goes back to the senate or tries to pursue a more non-partisan position in the next presidency (regardless of R or D). I'm thinking the Dem is somebody off the radar at this point.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Politics is pretty much like college football recruiting. Full of rumor & innuendo and a year-round sport.

(rah)

[ISiddiqui]

And, of course, for some of us, it's fun to speculate.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by chesapeake

She'd have to become a MUCH better campaigner to have a reasonable shot. She walked and talked herself into trouble a lot in this campaign. In a more competitive state, I'm not sure she would have won.

I think if it wasn't a Presidential election year she might have lost here as well... she was -7 vs. Obama's numbers (60/40 vs. 53/47). Just doesn't have the natural charisma to overcome the negative Massachusetts and intellectual connections - the Senate is a much better fit for her than any national campaign. Deval Patrick does have the charisma, but I don't think he's been successful enough as a Governor.

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I'm gonna take this opportunity to retract my earlier dismissal of Barbour as a candidate, or at least to amend that statement after some more reflection.

I don't think Barbour will be a serious contender for the GOP nomination.
I believe there's a fair chance that he might be a serious contender for the nomination of some other party (most likely one that doesn't yet exist).

We've seen two elections arguably won due to 3rd parties in the last 20 years (Perot 1992, Nader 2000) and it wouldn't shock me from either side. The Democrats have a better chance of sticking together, but if the economy re-tanks or there's another Wall Street-esque scandal I could see the Occupy wing running off and taking 3-4% of the vote with them, which is probably enough to swing the election since the Dem nominee would have to tack hard(er) to the left than normal. The Republicans have a greater chance of a bigger split - if someone like Christie were nominated I could see someone running from his right on a platform heavily based on restrictions to gay marriage, reproductive rights, and immigration. Would kill the Republicans chances this election, but would probably give them a much better chance long-term and would be the cleanest way to make a break from that wing of the party (assuming most of the voters come back into the tent by 2018 when it didn't work).

Don't think either scenario is likely at this point, but they're probably just as likely as picking the individual nominee for either party at this point in time.

[CrimsonFox]

Are you sure Clinton even wants it? I heard she's stepping down as Sec of State and Kerry is going to do it.

[bronconick]

Everyone steps down from Sec State after one term or less because the travel, among other things, sucks. There's also a law forbidding a Sec State from campaigning or being involved in political activities.

[Izulde]

Originally Posted by bronconick

Everyone steps down from Sec State after one term or less because the travel, among other things, sucks. There's also a law forbidding a Sec State from campaigning or being involved in political activities.

Yep. I think the last time we had a two-term SoS was back in the '60s.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

The Republicans have a greater chance of a bigger split - if someone like Christie were nominated I could see someone running from his right on a platform heavily based on restrictions to gay marriage, reproductive rights, and immigration. Would kill the Republicans chances this election, but would probably give them a much better chance long-term and would be the cleanest way to make a break from that wing of the party (assuming most of the voters come back into the tent by 2018 when it didn't work). Don't think either scenario is likely at this point, but they're probably just as likely as picking the individual nominee for either party at this point in time.

I believe the uneasy coalition that has existed since the Reagan era has just about run its course. I can see a 1968 electoral scenario for 2016 if the GOP nominates a 3rd straight lightweight, albeit with a chance to extend the reach of electoral votes further west this time around.

I don't know that anybody would actually believe that it's an outright winnable situation but I could see hopes of finishing second to become the leading opposition party for 2020.

[DaddyTorgo]

Hopefully Kerry isn't stupid enough to take SoS. If he does then we end up having another special election and I fear that Brown weasels his way back in.

[sterlingice]

If the GOP decides to swing hugely conservative, isn't a 1964 scenario the likely outcome?

SI

[Grover]

Originally Posted by Izulde

I wouldn't discount Elizabeth Warren for the Dems, either.

+1 million.

But I have a political crush on her.

[sterlingice]

Honestly, I think she's going to be more of an Al Franken sort- someone who tries to grab onto populist items as she's bit a of an outsider.

I don't see the charisma for a Presidential bid, at least not by 2016

SI

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

If the GOP decides to swing hugely conservative, isn't a 1964 scenario the likely outcome?

I don't think so, at least not if you mean in the way I think you mean.

I'm guessing you're thinking a split let's the southeast end up with Hillary winning the state. My bet is that Hillary doesn't pull nearly as well as Obama has across the South, leaving them short of being able to pull off the wins.

Brings another interesting thought to mind: I wonder if 2016 (whether two parties or three) is a second straight election with fewer votes cast than the one before? I wonder if that's ever happened?

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

If the GOP decides to swing hugely conservative, isn't a 1964 scenario the likely outcome?

SI

I think 1968 is just as, if not more likely - they nominate a "moderate" and the hard-core evangelicals run a 3rd party that siphons support away in the south and midwest.

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I don't see the charisma for a Presidential bid, at least not by 2016

I don't think charisma is something you grow into - you can improve other aspects of your campaigning, or learn how to focus on your strengths, but you're either born with the ability to stand up in front of a large crowd and command the room or not, and I don't think she has it. Which isn't something I think is essential to be President, but I think it is essential to be elected President.

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

Hopefully Kerry isn't stupid enough to take SoS. If he does then we end up having another special election and I fear that Brown weasels his way back in.

I know you hate the man and all Republicans, but how is outright winning a statewide election weaseling in? If you're saying it's because he'll win another special election without Obama at the top of the ticket to boost the Democrat, then maybe they should nominate a better candidate.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

I don't think charisma is something you grow into - you can improve other aspects of your campaigning, or learn how to focus on your strengths, but you're either born with the ability to stand up in front of a large crowd and command the room or not, and I don't think she has it. Which isn't something I think is essential to be President, but I think it is essential to be elected President

I think there are different types of charisma, tho. Tom Hanks =/= Barack Obama =/= Bill Clinton. And credibility, confidence, and experience can breed certain types.

SI

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

I know you hate the man and all Republicans, but how is outright winning a statewide election weaseling in? If you're saying it's because he'll win another special election without Obama at the top of the ticket to boost the Democrat, then maybe they should nominate a better candidate.

Yeah, I pretty much just take DT's comments as just hating anything republican. I personally voted for both Obama and Brown myself. I have actually been happy with what Obama has done since being in the White house and I feel the same way about Brown. Neither had been 100% on what I wanted done, but I would vote for Brown again if he had a chance to run.

Now that Warren is in the office though, I'll give her a chance to see what she can do. She may end up making me just as happy or happier too, so thats fine. I just tend to ignore most of the posts from the Far Right or Far left on this board when it comes to politics

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

I know you hate the man and all Republicans, but how is outright winning a statewide election weaseling in? If you're saying it's because he'll win another special election without Obama at the top of the ticket to boost the Democrat, then maybe they should nominate a better candidate.

I don't hate all Republicans. I would have voted for Bill Weld if I was old enough. I just think Brown's campaign was schmucky (repeated personal attacks, his staffers disrupting her rallies with "war whoops" and tomahawk chops and stuff). He also rubs me the wrong way with his trumpeting of his bipartisanship (which is pretty BS when you look at the votes where he was actually allowed to be bipartisan they were pretty much all minor votes, not the important ones). And I worry that in another special election (which tend to have crappy turnouts) another weak candidate will get run against him and he'll slip back into office. Weasel wasn't the right word, I concede.

[JPhillips]

I like Warren, but she'd be a terrible presidential candidate. Couldn't raise the money and easy to demagogue.

[Peregrine]

No way that Warren would be the Dem candidate in 2016 - I like her a lot as a Senator but she has several strikes against her in any run for President.