Scotland to vote on Independence next week

[Fidatelo]

Originally Posted by Marc Vaughan

I'm outside of the UK these days - but as an English person I'm personally appalled at how much bending over backwards the UK Government appears to be happy to do in order to retain Scotland at part of the Union.

Frankly they already have the 'best of it' with regards to many services - if they want to sod off and see how they get on alone I'd let them do it.

The alternative is simply to give them more then repeat this farce in ten years time when they once again get fed up with their 'harsh' treatment of getting better services than the rest of the UK ...

This has been said almost verbatim in regards to Quebec by almost every Canadian west of Ontario for the past 30 years.

[CAsterling]

Originally Posted by Marc Vaughan

The truth about the Scottish referendum ...

Scottish Referendum Truth (Video)

I love the "its not quite a Blue Peter badge" line

[Galaxy]

So Scotland's two biggest financial institutions-Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds-threatened that they'll move to England if Scotland votes yes. Similar to how Montreal's big companies moved to Toronto over the years.

[AlexB]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Having traveled in Scotland (my father also spent a year there when he was in college), I can certainly see why this movement has momentum.

But I don't see it passing, unless Miliband does something really dumb in the next few days. Polling in Quebec prior to their last sovereignty referendum in 1995 had the "yes" vote steadily moving up - even to a 4-6 point lead with that similar large number of undecideds in the final week. It ended up losing by 1 point.

The real test is how London responds to a failed vote. Since it's Labour country, will the party make changes to ensure that this doesn't happen again?

We can count on Ed!

It is a strange situation that the Tory government is supposed to be campaigning for Scotland to stay, while if they do secede then the Tories are more likely to be in power for longer in the future. They're generally not well liked in Scotland it's fair to say, which is one of the reasons why the old labour Scots Darling & Brown have been the main faces of Better Together

For me I think that the Scots are mistaken if they truly believe they will be better off independent, and it would be doubtful IMO if they would get into the EU straight away, but as long as things like taking on a share of the national debt and border controls were agreed properly, while it would affect the rest of the UK, if the majority of Scots truly want an independent Scotland who are we to stop them?

[molson]

I think everybody was waiting for Kim Jong-un to chime in on this whole situation, so here you go!

North Korea 'backs Scottish independence' - Telegraph

[ISiddiqui]

Can't let the terrorist states win!! So don't vote yes .

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by molson

I think everybody was waiting for Kim Jong-un to chime in on this whole situation, so here you go!

North Korea 'backs Scottish independence' - Telegraph

I was just asking myself this morning, "what does Kim Jong-Un think about this?!?"

SI

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

I like that the trade they are looking for is to trade natural resources for Scotch whiskey. Seems like that should improve the quality of life in North Korea (for the 10 government officials who receive the shipment).

[Galaxy]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I was just asking myself this morning, "what does Kim Jong-Un think about this?!?"

SI

My favorite part of that story:

"Exclusive: Kim Jong-un's regime would support an independent Scotland under Alex Salmond and is hoping to trade its natural resources for Scotch whisky, officials tell Telegraph"

""I believe independence will be positive as it will encourage personal exchanges and provide both countries with business chances," said Choe. "North Korea is rich in natural resources and we like the taste of Scotch whisky, so we can be beneficial to each other."

[Galaxy]

[Desnudo]

[MartinD]

At this point, the polling suggests that it will be close, with the No campaign slightly ahead - there are good reasons for both sides to think that they might do better on Thursday than the opinion polls suggest, though, which could make for an interesting few hours on Friday morning as the results are announced...

[NobodyHere]

[vex]

That was outstanding.

[DaddyTorgo]

Oliver's been pretty spot on with a bunch of his monologues.

I haven't caught his show in a couple weeks, but all the episodes are sitting on my dvr waiting for me and even if they're outdated I will catch up on them.

[Marc Vaughan]

Originally Posted by AlexB

For me I think that the Scots are mistaken if they truly believe they will be better off independent, and it would be doubtful IMO if they would get into the EU straight away, but as long as things like taking on a share of the national debt and border controls were agreed properly, while it would affect the rest of the UK, if the majority of Scots truly want an independent Scotland who are we to stop them?

At the moment even taking into consideration their Oil revenues Scotland are NOT net contributors to the UK*, that is they're subsidized by the other parts of the UK (largely London and Southern England).

If they leave then they keep 'most' of their Oil revenues but not all, thus as I see if they're welcome to sod off if they want to - they'll find their budget decreases** and the deficit of England goes down .... personally as an English person I'm absolutely appalled at how much the current Government is bending over backwards to keep them, why do they deserve BETTER than the rest of the United Kingdom - United means sharing fairly between all ...

Scotland Revenue (inc. Oil) vs Spending per capita

*There hasn't been a 'surplus' in this regard since 2001.
**Initially by whatever part of the Oil revenue they give up to the rest of the UK and the size of their current budget deficit which is no longer subsidised by the rest of the UK (deficit was 1500 UKP per capita last year). Then by far more in 20-30 years when their Oil revenue starts declining.

[Galaxy]

Our £30bn divorce: If Scotland leaves, get set to fight over oil, land, works of art... and even the Channel Tunnel | Mail Online

The Scottish nationalist want a 30 billion pound settlement from the UK?!? I'm assuming they will take the share of the debt, too right? After all, it's fair.

[ISiddiqui]

Yeah, I think the SNP thinks that will happen, but there is no way that the UK government agrees to that. And if the Scottish walk away from their part of the debt, then credit agencies are going to downgrade Scottish credit ridiculously low, which will kill their economy.

[ISiddiqui]

From the link:

But a UK Government spokesman did not accept that Scotland would be given everything the SNP is demanding if Scots do leave the UK.

He said: 'A vote to leave the UK is a vote to leave its institutions. The division of assets and liabilities would be a matter for negotiation between the continuing UK and an independent Scotland.'

Exactly right. You are voting to leave things like Channel 4, 10 Downing Street (the chutzpah there!), the British Embassy in Paris, etc.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Yeah, I think the SNP thinks that will happen, but there is no way that the UK government agrees to that. And if the Scottish walk away from their part of the debt, then credit agencies are going to downgrade Scottish credit ridiculously low, which will kill their economy.

I'm not convinced SNP really thinks that will happen, but they certainly want voters to believe it will.

[Marc Vaughan]

Should US deploy troops to Scotland

(not a serious article ... obviously )

[Marc Vaughan]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I'm not convinced SNP really thinks that will happen, but they certainly want voters to believe it will.

At the moment the referendum for independence appears to be presented in such a way where the rest of the UK roll over and get shafted for the good of the newly minted Scottish nation ... I think that Scotland will have a nasty surprise waiting if they they do leave ... especially if they try and not take on a fair share of the debt.

[Galaxy]

The polls close at 10PM, correct?

[cartman]

Originally Posted by Galaxy

The polls close at 10PM, correct?

Yep, 10PM local time. And evidently there is no exit polling, so we'll have to wait for the actual ballot counts to start being released to get any idea of how the voting went.

[Izulde]

Currency markets and oddsmaker shifts appear to signal No vote coming, unfortunately

[cartman]

The Guardian is doing a live blog of the results, and will update the tallies as they come in.

Scottish referendum result - YouGov predicts 54 no, 46 yes - live | Politics | theguardian.com

[cartman]

official results are starting to trickle in

[Ryan S]

The local authority most likely to vote Yes according to Credit Suisse has voted No has voted 54% No. This area makes up just 1% of the population, so there is still a long way to go.

You can see the "Yes Rating" at the link below.

Nicola on Twitter: "Scottish Referendum results - Expected Timing http://t.co/tVIrWMRUNq"

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by cartman

official results are starting to trickle in

And looking like it may be a (relative) landslide for No.

[Umbrella]

Not looking good for the independence camp.

[Galaxy]

Does this mean the end of Salmond's role as Scottish FM if this goes to a "No"?

[MartinD]

Originally Posted by Galaxy

Does this mean the end of Salmond's role as Scottish FM if this goes to a "No"?

No, the referendum is unrelated to the Scottish Parliament or the post of First Minister. (That said, Alex Salmond has been in front-line politics for a very long time, so may stand down as leader of the SNP at some point in the near future - nothing to suggest that this is going to happen, just a bit of speculation on my part.)

[Ryan S]

Originally Posted by MartinD

No, the referendum is unrelated to the Scottish Parliament or the post of First Minister. (That said, Alex Salmond has been in front-line politics for a very long time, so may stand down as leader of the SNP at some point in the near future - nothing to suggest that this is going to happen, just a bit of speculation on my part.)

If the No vote wins tonight, I can see Alex Salmond stepping down at the next election. There will not be another referendum for at least a generation, so I don't think he would want to stick around.

[bhlloy]

Considering Salmond cancelled his appearance at his count long before any results starting coming in, they must have known this kind of result was coming

[tarcone]

I was hoping this would lead to California declaring independence. Oh well, maybe next time.

[JonInMiddleGA]

What worse performance:
Yes ... or Tampa Bay

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Ryan S

If the No vote wins tonight, I can see Alex Salmond stepping down at the next election. There will not be another referendum for at least a generation, so I don't think he would want to stick around.

Lots of folks were saying if "Yes" won, David Cameron would have to step down as Prime Minister, so fair is fair for Salmond .

[Galaxy]

Originally Posted by MartinD

No, the referendum is unrelated to the Scottish Parliament or the post of First Minister. (That said, Alex Salmond has been in front-line politics for a very long time, so may stand down as leader of the SNP at some point in the near future - nothing to suggest that this is going to happen, just a bit of speculation on my part.)

Sorry--I know he stays on legally, but more as a position of stepping down since he's invested so much (if not all) his political capital in this. How do you carry on as lame duck leader after a rather big risk?

[ISiddiqui]

From The Guardian's live online coverage:

On Sky News the polling expert Michael Thrasher says that, if the pattern of the first four results is repeated across Scotland, Scotland will vote no by a larger margin than the pollsters predicted.

[JPhillips]

I read a few days ago a guy saying that research shows that in a yes/no referendum with a high number of I don't knows in polling, a large majority of IDKs that vote, vote no. He said No would win by a few points more than was being polled.

[MartinD]

Whatever the result turns out to be (and at this point, it looks like No by a fairly comfortable margin), the turnout is very impressive - likely to be well over 80%, going by what I've seen so far.

[cartman]

'Yes' just got a big win in Dundee. Picked up nearly 14,000 votes.

[Marc Vaughan]

Originally Posted by cartman

'Yes' just got a big win in Dundee. Picked up nearly 14,000 votes.

Its the big territories which 'really' count, although the small ones add up - the big 4-5 have a huge proportion of the votes ... Glasgow, Fife and Edinburgh add up to 1.1m votes ... by contrast the 12 regions so far add up to 700,000 ...

[cartman]

Originally Posted by Marc Vaughan

Its the big territories which 'really' count, although the small ones add up - the big 4-5 have a huge proportion of the votes ... Glasgow, Fife and Edinburgh add up to 1.1m votes ... by contrast the 12 regions so far add up to 700,000 ...

And it sounds like the big 4-5 will be announcing results in the next 90 minutes or so.

[cartman]

Dumfries and Galloway, the council bordering England, just gave 'no' their biggest win so far, breaking nearly 2 to 1.

[Marc Vaughan]

If the big 4-5 don't all fall heavily "Yes" then this is all over before midnight ...

[cartman]

Abderdeen delivers another big win for 'no', 84k to 59k.

[bhlloy]

Glasgow is going to make this a bit more respectable for Yes, but it's all over at this point. Looks like the last two days polls are going to be pretty much bang on.

[cartman]

The Scottish Labour leader Johann Lamont is claiming victory for 'no'.

[cartman]

North Lanarkshire and South Lanarkshire are the two biggest councils to report in so far. Both 'yes' and 'no' got over 100k votes each, with 'yes' winning the North by ~5k and 'no' winning the South by ~20k