2014-2015 MLB Hot Stove thread

[Easy Mac]

Braves are making moves for the new park. I have to assume they didn't think Heyward would re-up long enough.

[MizzouRah]

I LOVE the Cardinals - Braves trade, I mean really LOVE IT! Heyward is a great addition to this team!

[GoldenEagle]

I hate the deal as a Cardinals fan. Can't help but think this will be a reverse Wainwright type deal.

[Ramzavail]

Shelby Miller is a dime a dozen type pitcher. I hate the Cardinals.

[ISiddiqui]

Shelby Miller doesn't seem all the impressive to me, to be honest. But maybe the Braves can turn him around from his sophomore slump.

[Arles]

Miller saw his K/9 rate drop from 8.78 in 2013 to 6.25 in 2014, while his BB/9 rate rose from 2.96 to 3.59. His numbers still looked OK because his BABIP dropped from a reasonable .280 in 2013 to an extremely low .256 in 2014. If he keeps those K rates and the balls in play AVG rises back to .270-.280, his numbers won't look that great.

This reminds me a little of the Rasmus deal in regards to Miller. Everyone thought the Cards were selling too early on Rasmus and kept talking about "years of control". Well, Rasmus had a 4.0 WAR for St. Louis in 2010 and then started slipping. The Cards dealt him while he still had value and now he's making north of $7 mil a year with a WAR around 1.0. The warning signs are there for Miller too and if he has a 4.30 ERA with a 6 K/9 rate in 2015, he won't get close to the player Heyward is.

If Heyward can come in and be similar to what he's done the past 3 seasons (5 WAR avg), he will be a lot more valuable than what Miller projects. As Fangraphs says:

In other words, Steamer is projecting Heyward to take a big step back defensively and still be one of the best players in the game, because the forecast sees a 25 year old with a career 117 wRC+ and positive contact rate trends, so it thinks Heyward is on the verge of a big offensive breakout. From a purely offensive standpoint, Steamer expects Heyward to be as good (or slightly better than) the good Upton, Matt Kemp, Ryan Braun, or Hanley Ramirez. If you combine the offensive level of those players with above average defensive value, well, you’re left with a superstar.

And that’s why the Cardinals have to be pretty thrilled with this move. They’re legitimately getting one of the best young players in baseball, and at the only position where they had a glaring need. Adding Heyward to fill their right field hole will end up being one of the largest improvements any team makes this winter. The question for the Cardinals is how long they’ll get to keep him.

There's a decent chance that the Cards sign Heyward to be their franchise OF if he has a solid season. They only have $73 mil in contracts for next season and Holliday is off the books after 2016. Either way, getting a very good OF for a year and having options to keep him is worth more than a 4th/5th starter.

[Vince, Pt. II]

If the Giants hadn't been winning all these World Series, I'd really hate the Cardinals. The franchise never seems to stumble.

[stevew]

I will miss Russell Martin, but not at 5/82

[DaddyTorgo]

Isn't Martin like...well on the wrong side of 30 too?

Edit: Okay, see he's 31. Still...that's tying him up through age 36 @ like $16.5mil/yr? Yikes.

[stevew]

Heyward is good enough but I don't see how 6.4 WAR passes any sort of eye test on his stats. He hit 11 homers and had a .735 ops.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by stevew

Heyward is good enough but I don't see how 6.4 WAR passes any sort of eye test on his stats. He hit 11 homers and had a .735 ops.

He's a defensive beast.

[ISiddiqui]

Oh, and even with the .735 OPS, his OPS+ was 108 (ie, 8% better than the average hitter). So not horrible.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by Ramzavail

Shelby Miller is a dime a dozen type pitcher. I hate the Cardinals.

Aren't you a Mets fan? Good from that perspective.

[ISiddiqui]

To be fair, it wasn't as if the Braves were going to contend for the division even with Heyward next season.

[JPhillips]

I hate the Cards for making me hate Heyward.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

If the Giants hadn't been winning all these World Series, I'd really hate the Cardinals. The franchise never seems to stumble.

Imagine if you were a Dodgers fan.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I hate the Cards for making me hate Heyward.

+1 One of my favs not on my team.

[Butter]

Why can't the Reds EVER make this kind of trade. God dammit.

[rowech]

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

Why can't the Reds EVER make this kind of trade. God dammit.

What I would like to know is if they even tried to get him for say Homer Bailey? Could have moved Heyward to left and had cannons on both corners outfield spots.

[Atocep]

I don't think this is quite the slam dunk for the Cardinals. The braves willingness to trade him tells us that he's very likely going to test free agency. So there's a good chance they gave up Shelby Miller and what is now the braves top pitching prospect for a 1 year rental. That's a lot of club control surrendered for a player whose value at this point is based largely on his defense.

I personally like the trade for both teams. The Braves, from what I've read, tried and failed to get Heyward signed long term, they're not likely to be serious contenders in 2015 so they turned him into several years of club control in starting pitching.

[sterlingice]

Yeah, I don't think this is as perfect a deal as thought. I'm not that high on Miller but Heyward is only there for 1 year. He may be 25 but this is his last year under contract and he's going to want a mint from someone next year.

SI

[FBPro]

Braves fan and I like the deal, talk is that Jenkins performance is gonna be a better indicator of how the deal goes for the Bravos.

[miked]

Heyward has been hyped so much that his perceived value is nowhere what he brings...which is league average offense. I think he may improve, but if you look at his last 2 seasons it won't take much. The league's worst offense just got even poorer, especially if you look at Heyward as the "productive" one and see what is left to take his place. Maybe we'll get more Schaeffer.

[Ramzavail]

Originally Posted by Logan

Aren't you a Mets fan? Good from that perspective.

Yes, its good that it seems like the Braves are going into rebuild mode. But also meant that there was no way the Mets could have obtained him. I would have done Niese for Hayward in a heartbeat but they would have never traded him inside the division. PLUS, I hate the Cardinals. I say it a million times and I'm just so sick of them constantly having good players, constantly making smart moves, constantly winning. I'm just jealous.

[stevew]

This is what happens when the braves made the dumb decision to call him up on opening day 5 years ago vs waiting til mid may

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by miked

Maybe we'll get more Schaeffer.

Gattis, unless they deal him as well.

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by Arles

There's a decent chance that the Cards sign Heyward to be their franchise OF if he has a solid season. They only have $73 mil in contracts for next season and Holliday is off the books after 2016. Either way, getting a very good OF for a year and having options to keep him is worth more than a 4th/5th starter.

THIS.. there is no doubt that's what Mo is thinking with this deal.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

It'll be interesting to see who lands Yasmani Tomas.

Cuban slugger Yasmani Tomas on Royals radar as team searches for offensive weapons | The Kansas City Star

Yoan Moncada is the real prize, although Tomas is older (23 vs 19) and closer to the majors. Moncada's an interesting case because he still has a Cuban passport a.k.a. didn't defect. (The rumor is that he married a Guatemalan woman and thus was allowed to travel there, but nothing confirmed yet.) Hoping OFAC clears him before next June - as long as he signs before July 2nd, Boston/NYY/LAA have an advantage in that they've already exceeded their international allotments, and thus would have no additional penalty for signing Moncada (other than the 100% tax on his signing bonus), while other teams would lose the ability to sign international prospects for more than 300k in the next 2 years.

Love the Heyward trade for the Cards, even if I think ATL will turn out ok from it.

Hoping the Red Sox don't sign Panda (and he re-signs with SF), but do sign Lester (or Scherzer.). Hanley's also an intriguing option as a 3B or LF depending on how much he signs for.

[Suicane75]

Y'all can have your Stantons and Heywards, we just signed Jeff Francouer baby~! Suck it.

[JonInMiddleGA]

On the J-Hey trade, reality is that it really doesn't matter a whole lot in the grand scheme of things for Atlanta.

They went nowhere with him, they'll go nowhere without him, they'll just do it more cheaply (now there's a shock) and quite possibly with noticeably worse defense.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by miked

Heyward has been hyped so much that his perceived value is nowhere what he brings...which is league average offense.

And top of the league (or close to it) defense. He's a 5 WAR a season player and he just turned 25. He was the Braves' best position player.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

On the J-Hey trade, reality is that it really doesn't matter a whole lot in the grand scheme of things for Atlanta.

They went nowhere with him, they'll go nowhere without him, they'll just do it more cheaply (now there's a shock) and quite possibly with noticeably worse defense.

Well, you are probably right here, though that doesn't exactly bode well . The Hart years don't appear to be any better than the Wren years so far.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by FBPro

Braves fan and I like the deal, talk is that Jenkins performance is gonna be a better indicator of how the deal goes for the Bravos.

I saw Jenkins pitch out here in the AFL and he looked pretty good. He appears to be over the injury issues and I'm betting he's a better long term answer than Miller.

If I were to predict what happens, I would say that Heyward hits .270 with 20 HR and 20 SB - leads off and plays very good defense (5-6 WAR). The Cards work out an extension that is in the 9-180 mil range and he stays. Walden slides into the setup role Neshek had last year and puts up solid numbers for the next 2-3 years in that role.

Miller has an OK season with a 4.20ish ERA and 6-7 K/9. Not bad for his cheap contract. In the offseason, he hits arbitration and gets $6 mil (still not a bad price). Jenkins hits AA for the Braves and looks good - he comes up in 2016 and works his way into being a #3 starter.

All in all, I see this being a win for both teams.

[Easy Mac]

IF Heyward ever figures out how to hit lefties even slightly below average, the trade will be horrible. If he continues at a slightly better offensive version of his current self (110-115 OPS+) then the trade will likely end up a wash.

It depends on if they can move Otis Upton or if they have to play him in right because they can't pick up a dead body for cheap.

[Arles]

Here's some additional information on why extending Heyward looks more like a legit option:

DeWitt expects 'significant' rise in payroll in coming years : Sports

“We have forecasted increases over the next three to five years that will accommodate what we need to do with the young players we have,” Cardinals chairman Bill DeWitt told The Post-Dispatch this past week. “We knew as younger players matured at the major-league level they would get to arbitration and into free agency. We wouldn’t be able to retain them at the current payroll level, so we’re forecasting fairly significant increases in the next three to five years.”

The Cardinals finished the 2014 season with a payroll around $115 million, and even though it swelled with additions of pitchers John Lackey and Justin Masterson the total outlay was less than the limit set for the season. DeWitt confirmed that the team had “the capacity for a higher payroll than we currently have.” With the size of raises owed a player like Lance Lynn and guaranteed to a player like Matt Carpenter, the Cardinals front office expects the payroll to grow for 2015 after several years of hovering around $110 million to $115 million and one year of stepping back in total spending.

DeWitt declined to put a figure on “significant.” The number will be based on revenue and market, he said. Given those indicators, within a few years the payroll could approach $130 million. The club expects to be ready to have a franchise record payroll in the coming years.

“It’s always fluid,” DeWitt said. “You’re never 100 percent sure what the revenues are going to be. It’s also based on performance. You can forecast the players’ performance to a certain degree but there are other levels there when it comes to arbitration and free agency. Injuries are a factor. You also never know what young player will be next to come up and earn a spot. … It’s always good to have something in reserve when you may need to make a move.

“I expect it will be higher next year and beyond.”

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Arles

If I were to predict what happens, I would say that Heyward hits .270 with 20 HR and 20 SB - leads off and plays very good defense (5-6 WAR).

Didn't I see a quote somewhere about the Cards believing it was leadoff that hurt his power numbers, with the implication being they planned to use him down in the order?

[lungs]

Originally Posted by Arles

If I were to predict what happens, I would say that Heyward hits .270 with 20 HR and 20 SB - leads off and plays very good defense (5-6 WAR). The Cards work out an extension that is in the 9-180 mil range and he stays. Walden slides into the setup role Neshek had last year and puts up solid numbers for the next 2-3 years in that role.

You are much too pessimistic. Good players that go to the Cardinals tend to turn into great players, no? .300 with 35 HR is more along the lines of what I expect. 8-9 WAR.

I don't like it, but it's the way things go

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by Arles

I saw Jenkins pitch out here in the AFL and he looked pretty good. He appears to be over the injury issues and I'm betting he's a better long term answer than Miller.

If I were to predict what happens, I would say that Heyward hits .270 with 20 HR and 20 SB - leads off and plays very good defense (5-6 WAR). The Cards work out an extension that is in the 9-180 mil range and he stays. Walden slides into the setup role Neshek had last year and puts up solid numbers for the next 2-3 years in that role.

Miller has an OK season with a 4.20ish ERA and 6-7 K/9. Not bad for his cheap contract. In the offseason, he hits arbitration and gets $6 mil (still not a bad price). Jenkins hits AA for the Braves and looks good - he comes up in 2016 and works his way into being a #3 starter.

All in all, I see this being a win for both teams.

Heyward shouldn't leadoff though.. Wong should.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by MizzouRah

Heyward shouldn't leadoff though.. Wong should.

A player with an OBP of under .300 should leadoff? That's not the correct answer.

[ISiddiqui]

Looking at the lineup for the 2014 Cards, Matt Carpenter (with his .375 OBP) led off 156 times last year. Carpenter should continue to be the Cardinals leadoff hitter. Jay and Heyward should split time between 2nd and 6th/7th (depending if Molina gets his power back next season) in the batting order. Wong should bat 8th.

[stevew]

I love it when they say that leading off affects power numbers, as if a guy leads off more than once a game(or at most twice) and anyways like that would infer he's intentionally not trying to hit homers or doubles every trip to the plate.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by stevew

I love it when they say that leading off affects power numbers, as if a guy leads off more than once a game(or at most twice) and anyways like that would infer he's intentionally not trying to hit homers or doubles every trip to the plate.

Until this past season though, in Heyward's case, there did seem to be some evidence of it.

I think, mentally, he's been a different hitter at various spots in the order. He appears more comfortable at the plate hitting 6-7, although as uninspiring as he is hitting leadoff, he's even worse at #2.

I'll be honest: I'm not thrilled with the return they got for him but I haven't seen a whole lot of people in Braves Country particularly upset by his departure either. His defense will be missed, his offense, eh, not so much.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

A player with an OBP of under .300 should leadoff? That's not the correct answer.

Is MizzouRah, Dusty Baker?

[Arles]

The Cards have said they want to put Carpenter in more of an RBI spot given his .390 OBP with men in scoring position last year. I'm thinking Heyward leads off, Jay hits second and Carp hits 3rd.

I also wouldn't be surprised to see Bourjos moved for a pitcher given the addition of Heyward and Piscotty's/Grichuk's development.

[Toddzilla]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

They went nowhere with him, they'll go nowhere without him, they'll just do it more cheaply (now there's a shock) and quite possibly with noticeably worse defense.

Perfect analysis

[Toddzilla]

Also given Heyward is under team control only one more season, Miller 5 and Jenkins 7+, it was a pretty slick move by Atlanta

[Arles]

Miller is only 3-4 I think. He's due for arbitration (prob around $6 mil) next offseason.

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

A player with an OBP of under .300 should leadoff? That's not the correct answer.

Sample size too small.

[ISiddiqui]

433 Plate appearances last season is plenty sample size.

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

433 Plate appearances last season is plenty sample size.

We will agree to disagree then. I like speed up top.. Kolten wasn't very good the first half of the season, but he came on late and should only get better. Of course Cardinal baseball nowadays is to wait for the HR.