WW LXVI: Money Money Money (Game Over!)

[hoopsguy]

Alan, if you really have the seer role and there isn't a bodyguard to protect you then why would they leave you around for another day?

I don't want to accelerate the process of removing you from the game without just cause, but I would have to work hard to come up with a scenario where we are talking on Day 5 about the results of your Night 4 scan.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Pass, I'm open for a healthy discussion this afternoon if you are.

However, for me personally the first order of business is deciding if I believe Alan. If I do, then there is a pretty good chance I'll join him in voting for you. If I don't, then my vote will go towards Alan.

Why aren't you looking at Mr. Wednesday?

[hoopsguy]

My worst-case scenario at the moment is that Cutthroat Alan actually did win the "avoid bankrupcy" prize on Day 1 and we are going to need two days to use it. He would make sense in this role on a wolf team if he did in fact start on their side. So that is why I think that our decision today is especially important - if we are going to need two days to remove him I would prefer to start today.

And this is where it would have been especially useful if Alan had kept money in the bank instead of on hand. Because we could have verified that he had money on Night 1. It wouldn't be absolute proof he was Rich, but it would have been a compelling piece of evidence for me.

[Tyrith]

I'm not going to lie, I'm probably going to play follow the leader with hoops today. Although my gut tells me that will involve going for Pass, and if I wind up voting for him I'll go into my own reasoning a little more.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Alan, if you really have the seer role and there isn't a bodyguard to protect you then why would they leave you around for another day?

I don't want to accelerate the process of removing you from the game without just cause, but I would have to work hard to come up with a scenario where we are talking on Day 5 about the results of your Night 4 scan.

You are probably right, as I said earlier I will be suprised if they don't kill me tonight. If I am around tommorrow, I would be pretty skeptical as well.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Why aren't you looking at Mr. Wednesday?

Because my thought process is that he was much more likely to be a convert than an original wolf. What incentive would he have had this morning at 3AM to announce he had won the Thief if he was a Cutthroat?

If he was converted last night, that sucks but we don't get the same value in terms of voting records from a convert as we do from an original Cutthroat.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

My worst-case scenario at the moment is that Cutthroat Alan actually did win the "avoid bankrupcy" prize on Day 1 and we are going to need two days to use it. He would make sense in this role on a wolf team if he did in fact start on their side. So that is why I think that our decision today is especially important - if we are going to need two days to remove him I would prefer to start today.

And this is where it would have been especially useful if Alan had kept money in the bank instead of on hand. Because we could have verified that he had money on Night 1. It wouldn't be absolute proof he was Rich, but it would have been a compelling piece of evidence for me.

If we need two days to kill him why would we? He won't have any money left when it happens. Especially if we tried to vote him out once and it bounced, the second time doesn't matter -- we'll already be able to get all the info we need from the first time.

[hoopsguy]

SnDvls, Tyrith, Pass, Clap - none of you guys submitted the winning bid for Friend of the Bank during the first two days of the game? I'm hoping that each of you will respond to this.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

My worst-case scenario at the moment is that Cutthroat Alan actually did win the "avoid bankrupcy" prize on Day 1 and we are going to need two days to use it. He would make sense in this role on a wolf team if he did in fact start on their side. So that is why I think that our decision today is especially important - if we are going to need two days to remove him I would prefer to start today.

And this is where it would have been especially useful if Alan had kept money in the bank instead of on hand. Because we could have verified that he had money on Night 1. It wouldn't be absolute proof he was Rich, but it would have been a compelling piece of evidence for me.

Lets go with your worst case scenerio a bit further. If I actually was a wolf, and I was up for a lynch and was lying about everything, why wouldn't I just pass along stuff behind the scenes before I got lynched? Why would I have said anything at all trying to get heat off of you when no one was even looking my way in suspicion?

The reason there aren't any good answers to these questions is simply because they do not apply here. My only way to move money if I get bankrupted is by passing it in thread before I get lynched. The reason I came out this morning trying to stir conversation a different direction is because I felt it was in the best interest for the villagers to go in a different direction today. Sometimes as a wolf, the best decision is to sit back and let others do your dirty work for you.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

SnDvls, Tyrith, Pass, Clap - none of you guys submitted the winning bid for Friend of the Bank during the first two days of the game? I'm hoping that each of you will respond to this.

My bid pattern-
1 - failed seer bid
2 - failed bodyguard bid
3 - failed bodyguard bid

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

If we need two days to kill him why would we? He won't have any money left when it happens. Especially if we tried to vote him out once and it bounced, the second time doesn't matter -- we'll already be able to get all the info we need from the first time.

Because every day that he is around he accumulates another 15K for them. If they actually have to submit a declared night-kill person he can take on those options, reducing their risk.

You have a good point that we will learn everything we need to know about him if he lives through Bankrupcy. But the reasons in the above paragraph demonstrate the risk with letting him stick around.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

My bid pattern-
1 - failed seer bid
2 - failed bodyguard bid
3 - failed bodyguard bid

Cool, although such a detailed answer gives the bad guys a really good idea of how much money you have. Which is why I framed the question as narrowly as I did.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Cool, although such a detailed answer gives the bad guys a really good idea of how much money you have. Which is why I framed the question as narrowly as I did.

Why wouldn't I have a ton of money anyway? The bodyguards weren't even that expensive, anyway.

[Tyrith]

Dola, I actually failed a seer bid on day 2.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Pass, I'm open for a healthy discussion this afternoon if you are.

However, for me personally the first order of business is deciding if I believe Alan. If I do, then there is a pretty good chance I'll join him in voting for you. If I don't, then my vote will go towards Alan.

The annoying thing about this is that looking back at everything, I believe Alan.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Because my thought process is that he was much more likely to be a convert than an original wolf. What incentive would he have had this morning at 3AM to announce he had won the Thief if he was a Cutthroat?

If he was converted last night, that sucks but we don't get the same value in terms of voting records from a convert as we do from an original Cutthroat.

What I'm more worried about is that he'll be converted tonight, and the wolves will have the thief's ability. Even if Mr. Wednesday is good, and is able to use this to our advantage, he'll be converted tonight.

[hoopsguy]

Well, potentially you could have won a service that would suggest that you have less money than the average bear at this point in the game.

If winning a bid didn't provide some kind of in-game advantage, then there isn't a need to reveal it.

For example, we have assumed all game that the Cutthroats won the "avoid bankrupcy". What if another member of the Rich won that? They wouldn't have any advantage to making that reveal.

By giving specific info on "failed bid" for all three days you give the opposition more details than they need to know. Is it a big deal? Probably not at this stage, but maybe as end game approaches it could be. Anyway, what is done is done and I just wanted to caution the next couple of people answering questions.

[claphamsa]

didnt even bid............

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

SnDvls, Tyrith, Pass, Clap - none of you guys submitted the winning bid for Friend of the Bank during the first two days of the game? I'm hoping that each of you will respond to this.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

What I'm more worried about is that he'll be converted tonight, and the wolves will have the thief's ability. Even if Mr. Wednesday is good, and is able to use this to our advantage, he'll be converted tonight.

Which they would have to use the following night, so we could return to this tomorrow.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Can someone who has had the Friend of the Bank please confirm that Alan has never had money in his bank account up to this point?

Obviously, having money in the bank and having it confirmed by others would build a stronger case for you. I wish that you had given this answer as I would feel a whole lot better moving along in this direction if you had some 3rd party vouching on your financials (not the lack of them, as the case is that you are presenting).

The problem with relying too much on the friend of the bank is that he can only really be used to tell the truth about people who say that they have purchased things -- if someone claims not to have purchased anything, there's no way the FOB can tell if that's true or not.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Which they would have to use the following night, so we could return to this tomorrow.

Why wouldn't they just convert him tonight?

[Passacaglia]

Scratch that, I see what you're saying.

[Passacaglia]

A more appropriate response is:

How are we going to know if he was converted tomorrow? And, what if Wednesday uses the thief tonight and also gets converted?

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Well, potentially you could have won a service that would suggest that you have less money than the average bear at this point in the game.

If winning a bid didn't provide some kind of in-game advantage, then there isn't a need to reveal it.

For example, we have assumed all game that the Cutthroats won the "avoid bankrupcy". What if another member of the Rich won that? They wouldn't have any advantage to making that reveal.

By giving specific info on "failed bid" for all three days you give the opposition more details than they need to know. Is it a big deal? Probably not at this stage, but maybe as end game approaches it could be. Anyway, what is done is done and I just wanted to caution the next couple of people answering questions.

And I could always be lying, even as a good guy

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Barkeep, can you give a little clarification on the assets viewed by the Friend of the Bank? Does it represent money in bank account + CD? Strictly bank account?

The Friend only finds out the bank account status of a person at the end of the day, no information on money in CDs.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

The problem with relying too much on the friend of the bank is that he can only really be used to tell the truth about people who say that they have purchased things -- if someone claims not to have purchased anything, there's no way the FOB can tell if that's true or not.

More specifically, it can be used to verify someone's claims about money in the bank. Which can be correlated to purchases, or not.

In Alan's case, the person with FOB should be able to suggest that he did not have any money in the bank on either Night 1 or Night 2 (depending on who comes forward).

Which would be disappointing for the wolves, with their remove the vet strategy, leaving a guy with 30K alone on Night 1.

[hoopsguy]

Pass, the Thief is a one-time thing. It gets to take money from either bank or on-hand, not both.

I'm much more worried about getting Cutthoats than worried about the Thief turning the game on us.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

More specifically, it can be used to verify someone's claims about money in the bank. Which can be correlated to purchases, or not.

In Alan's case, the person with FOB should be able to suggest that he did not have any money in the bank on either Night 1 or Night 2 (depending on who comes forward).

Which would be disappointing for the wolves, with their remove the vet strategy, leaving a guy with 30K alone on Night 1.

I had the same exact fear on night 1. If you look at the bluff I made that night going into the next morning hoping that it would be thought that I wasn't a very good target. Like I said I've been rather loose with protecting my money alot of this game with the idea that if I didn't have much of it, it wouldn't be a huge loss.

[Alan T]

Dola, This is what I am referring to. At the time I realized I had 45k on me and was probably a pretty juicy target, so I gave a bit of a line here to try to push attention elsewhere that night:

Originally Posted by Alan T

I don't want to talk much about what I did or didn't do with my bid while it is night time. I would rather leave less information for the wolves to go on for their night target. I'll give my thoughts tommorrow morning.

Then in the morning I came out and explained what my bid was.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Lets go with your worst case scenerio a bit further. If I actually was a wolf, and I was up for a lynch and was lying about everything, why wouldn't I just pass along stuff behind the scenes before I got lynched? Why would I have said anything at all trying to get heat off of you when no one was even looking my way in suspicion?

The reason there aren't any good answers to these questions is simply because they do not apply here. My only way to move money if I get bankrupted is by passing it in thread before I get lynched. The reason I came out this morning trying to stir conversation a different direction is because I felt it was in the best interest for the villagers to go in a different direction today. Sometimes as a wolf, the best decision is to sit back and let others do your dirty work for you.

Somehow missed this post earlier and there are a few things to respond to:
- if you are a wolf, and you still have assets, you will move them behind the scenes today if you are up for a lynch
- taking the heat off me was a one-day move, based on orchestrating the idea that I needed to be scanned last night. You could return to putting pressure on me as a convert the following day
- neither you or I get much of a pass if we let other people talk and sit back without saying much

That said, I admit that my notion of you as the cunning bad guy requires that I overlook some aspects of your play throughout the game. I basically have two things that I need to accept about your play so far:
1.) that you didn't name a second beneficiary after Swaggs died, so that the money adds up
2.) that you didn't have your money in the bank, which would allow us to validate your money trail

If I buy those two points, then everything adds up.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

SnDvls, Tyrith, Pass, Clap - none of you guys submitted the winning bid for Friend of the Bank during the first two days of the game? I'm hoping that each of you will respond to this.

correct

[hoopsguy]

Pass, can I get a response from you on Post #958?

SnDvls, Tyrith, Pass, Clap - none of you guys submitted the winning bid for Friend of the Bank during the first two days of the game? I'm hoping that each of you will respond to this.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Somehow missed this post earlier and there are a few things to respond to:
- if you are a wolf, and you still have assets, you will move them behind the scenes today if you are up for a lynch
- taking the heat off me was a one-day move, based on orchestrating the idea that I needed to be scanned last night. You could return to putting pressure on me as a convert the following day
- neither you or I get much of a pass if we let other people talk and sit back without saying much

That said, I admit that my notion of you as the cunning bad guy requires that I overlook some aspects of your play throughout the game. I basically have two things that I need to accept about your play so far:
1.) that you didn't name a second beneficiary after Swaggs died, so that the money adds up
2.) that you didn't have your money in the bank, which would allow us to validate your money trail

If I buy those two points, then everything adds up.

One comment about the pushing for the convert tommorrow.. if I did that I am pretty sure that many people would call my hypocritical for that. I have been very outspoken about not trying to hunt through a batch of cleared people looking for a convert when original wolves exist in a much smaller pool to look from.

I believe fully in that, and understand that at any time I or you or anyone may be converted, but if we have a somewhat small CoT going, why destroy it when you know for a fact there are original wolves still remaining in a much smaller group of people to look through. I always have said worry about a convert after you have made some ground on removing the original wolves.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Somehow missed this post earlier and there are a few things to respond to:
- if you are a wolf, and you still have assets, you will move them behind the scenes today if you are up for a lynch
- taking the heat off me was a one-day move, based on orchestrating the idea that I needed to be scanned last night. You could return to putting pressure on me as a convert the following day
- neither you or I get much of a pass if we let other people talk and sit back without saying much

That said, I admit that my notion of you as the cunning bad guy requires that I overlook some aspects of your play throughout the game. I basically have two things that I need to accept about your play so far:
1.) that you didn't name a second beneficiary after Swaggs died, so that the money adds up
2.) that you didn't have your money in the bank, which would allow us to validate your money trail

If I buy those two points, then everything adds up.

I agree with point 1 being important, but I find point 2 to be confusing. If he didn't have any money in the bank, wouldn't that suggest that he did receive the government insider? If he did have money in the bank, then we would know he didn't win the bid. Anyway, I think whether or not he purchased it doesn't really matter -- I could see both good guys and bad guys wanting it.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Pass, can I get a response from you on Post #958?

I'd rather not.

[hoopsguy]

Pass, then I'm left to assume that you did get the service at one point in the game. And that Alan's story doesn't clearly have an issue based on what you see from the bank info. What I don't understand is why you wouldn't come out and say this, given the relatively low value of the service.

If someone is coming to kill/bribe you it will be by virtue of your new inheritance, not because you spent a small amount on this service. What is the value on keeping it close to the vest and not sharing the info with the rest of the group at this point? You would either die with the info or be turned to the other side - either way the info is lost for the remainder of the Rich, who might have been able to help you discern value from the numbers.

[hoopsguy]

Alan, I'm on board with not voting for you today. Do you still think Passacaglia is the best option for today?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Pass, then I'm left to assume that you did get the service at one point in the game. And that Alan's story doesn't clearly have an issue based on what you see from the bank info. What I don't understand is why you wouldn't come out and say this, given the relatively low value of the service.

If someone is coming to kill/bribe you it will be by virtue of your new inheritance, not because you spent a small amount on this service. What is the value on keeping it close to the vest and not sharing the info with the rest of the group at this point? You would either die with the info or be turned to the other side - either way the info is lost for the remainder of the Rich, who might have been able to help you discern value from the numbers.

hoops, if you will look back at my discussions of the friend of the bank, I don't think I've ever said that the winner of his services should fear for his life. I don't know where you're getting that from.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Alan, I'm on board with not voting for you today. Do you still think Passacaglia is the best option for today?

I feel like I'm the only one that has done most of the talking today. So, I don't know that my opinions of others have changed dramatically. If Pass does know the bank records then he knows I haven't been lying so I'm not sure why he hasn't vouched for my story.

Only two reasons are 1) he is not on our side and thus a vote for him is a good idea or 2) He is on our side, but doesn't know for sure that I am on his side based only on not having money in the bank and doesn't want to end up vouching for me an unknown to him only to possibly condemn himself to death.

A few people have commented on it being either Pass or myself today (including you), so either he is a wolf or self preservating is kicking in. My vote is already on him though, and I don't see any reason to look elsewhere today. He's still on my short list of people I think is a good lynch choice today.

[hoopsguy]

I'm trying to understand the value of secrecy with information that could be used to help make an important decsion today.

From there, I was trying to guess why someone would be concerned, as a member of the Rich, with volunteering information for a very specific case that could prove guilt/innocence.

However, the fact that you are not challenging Alan on this is good enough for me right now. The fact that you are not answering the question means that I can't use it as a Lawyer question at a later point in the game.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I feel like I'm the only one that has done most of the talking today. So, I don't know that my opinions of others have changed dramatically. If Pass does know the bank records then he knows I haven't been lying so I'm not sure why he hasn't vouched for my story.

Only two reasons are 1) he is not on our side and thus a vote for him is a good idea or 2) He is on our side, but doesn't know for sure that I am on his side based only on not having money in the bank and doesn't want to end up vouching for me an unknown to him only to possibly condemn himself to death.

A few people have commented on it being either Pass or myself today (including you), so either he is a wolf or self preservating is kicking in. My vote is already on him though, and I don't see any reason to look elsewhere today. He's still on my short list of people I think is a good lynch choice today.

Why would I vouch for your story, knowing that the most influential person in the game is saying he'll vote for either you or me?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I'm trying to understand the value of secrecy with information that could be used to help make an important decsion today.

From there, I was trying to guess why someone would be concerned, as a member of the Rich, with volunteering information for a very specific case that could prove guilt/innocence.

However, the fact that you are not challenging Alan on this is good enough for me right now. The fact that you are not answering the question means that I can't use it as a Lawyer question at a later point in the game.

What does learning my beneficiary have to do with anything?

[hoopsguy]

Because your vouching for the story might help me think you are both good, rather than the fact that you are looking to self-preserve here.

Because continuing to dance around the issue makes me think that you are worried about the "a-ha, only a wolf would pay to see the money!"

MrW, if/when you arrive and read this maybe you can help me with a question here. When you got Saldana's money, how much of it was in CDs versus a bank account transfer?

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

What does learning my beneficiary have to do with anything?

I don't understand, from the above quote you listed, where I asked about your beneficiary.

I think the closest that I've come to talking about beneficiaries and you was saying that if you are Rich and the wolves come calling for you it will be by virtue of inheriting money more than fear about seeing 2-3 day old information on bank assets.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I don't understand, from the above quote you listed, where I asked about your beneficiary.

I think the closest that I've come to talking about beneficiaries and you was saying that if you are Rich and the wolves come calling for you it will be by virtue of inheriting money more than fear about seeing 2-3 day old information on bank assets.

You said something about using the lawyer on me. The rules say that he learns someone's beneficary.

[hoopsguy]

Pass, the only reason I haven't voted for you yet is that I think it has the chance to turn into a landslide if I'm wrong. People will use the "I followed the guy with trust" argument, and it will be apparent late in the day when you are way ahead in the vote that we might want to re-think this. Which would be expensive, or we would have to write you off. Clearly neither of those scenarios is something I want to see if you are in fact a member of the Rich group.

So I'm trying to give you every opportunity to talk about the game, but you are dancing around this FOB thing for no good reason that I can determine. You are obsessing over a one-time role in the Thief, which I don't understand. And you seem to have completely dropped your concerns from yesterday around Tyrith and SnDvls, even after I stated earlier that I thought your arguments around the vote yesterday were more coherent than I initially thought. None of these things are making me feel all that good about our conversation today.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Because your vouching for the story might help me think you are both good, rather than the fact that you are looking to self-preserve here.

Because continuing to dance around the issue makes me think that you are worried about the "a-ha, only a wolf would pay to see the money!"

MrW, if/when you arrive and read this maybe you can help me with a question here. When you got Saldana's money, how much of it was in CDs versus a bank account transfer?

I've dropped enough hints about it, hopefully in a way that the wolves might not have figured it out, and you've made the appropriate assumption. Why press it further?

Anyway, I don't even know what I'm supposed to say at this point. What else do you want to know? If you and Alan both end up wolves, I am going to...well, I don't know what I'm going to do!

[Tyrith]

Screw it. Pass is dancing, I agree with hoops, but I also don't want to get caught up in the follow the trusted guy pattern like hoops is talking about.

VOTE PASSACAGLIA

[hoopsguy]

Strike what I said on the Lawyer - I somehow had signals crossed on that role. Sorry for any confusion around that.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Pass, the only reason I haven't voted for you yet is that I think it has the chance to turn into a landslide if I'm wrong. People will use the "I followed the guy with trust" argument, and it will be apparent late in the day when you are way ahead in the vote that we might want to re-think this. Which would be expensive, or we would have to write you off. Clearly neither of those scenarios is something I want to see if you are in fact a member of the Rich group.

So I'm trying to give you every opportunity to talk about the game, but you are dancing around this FOB thing for no good reason that I can determine. You are obsessing over a one-time role in the Thief, which I don't understand. And you seem to have completely dropped your concerns from yesterday around Tyrith and SnDvls, even after I stated earlier that I thought your arguments around the vote yesterday were more coherent than I initially thought. None of these things are making me feel all that good about our conversation today.

I'm still on them (more Tyrith than SD), but I think my worry about the Thief is valid -- but obviously we're reading this game in much different ways. And for the record, you didn't say that my arguments were more coherent -- just that I wasn't voting for the hot guy. I guess I'm not the only one who misses clues!