08-10-2007, 11:00 AM | #951 |
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This post comes in between the time that I got my Day 1 news on Celeval - as the #2 guy in the rankings - and the posting of the final events. I'm putting this out there as one post that indicates that I was the Scout. Also, I'm assuming that other people who have roles in this game received their PMs in between the lynch post and the ballgame post. I don't know if this proves anything, other than that it should resonate with those who have a role. I'm not asking anyone out there to reveal if they have a role or not in support, just take this fact and incorporate it into your thought process when making a decision if I'm lying. |
08-10-2007, 11:06 AM | #952 |
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Dola - post is #355, for those who want to go back and look at the timeline.
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08-10-2007, 11:07 AM | #953 | |
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Wow. Lots of stuff going on! Who to believe? Gonzo or Hoops. Either way, we're in great shape. We know one of them is lying and I'll take a 1 for 1 any day of the week! Right now, I tend to believe Hoops based on his points above. Hopefully Gonzo can shed some more light on the sequence of events, but until then: VOTE GONZO |
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08-10-2007, 11:07 AM | #954 | |
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Not that this is the debate right now, but I still don't think that looking at winning games was a "ridiculous fascination". It is tied to the victory conditions for both teams. |
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08-10-2007, 11:12 AM | #955 |
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fair enough. How about if I reword it from "ridiculous fascination" to "stronger obsession than anyone else displayed" ?
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08-10-2007, 11:13 AM | #956 |
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Votes as of Post #954:
Hoops - Gonzo (915), Lathum (916), Purdue (921), Path (931), Barkeep (936) Gonzo - Hoops (933), Torgo (945), KWhit (953) Not voted - Jonathan Ezarik I'll lose the tie-breaker to anyone but DaddyTorgo, thanks to the two early votes by Gonzo. Hmm, maybe I'll abuse this strategy in future games with the "first vote cast" tie-break mechanism ... |
08-10-2007, 11:15 AM | #957 |
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I wouldn't worry too much yet hoops. Presumably we'll see some movement around lunchtime
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08-10-2007, 11:27 AM | #958 |
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I'm staying with my vote for mounting reasons, in addition to the ones I laid out yesterday. I still say that the much more clever play (and Hoops seems like a clever player) would be to help us win some games (btw, you missed getting in your step it up yesterday??? Although I shouldn't talk as both times mine have failed to get me mentioned as doing anything of value) while poaching us off at the rate of two per day. I haven't seen anything to make me distrust Gonzo and I think watching vote movement could be very telling tonight.
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08-10-2007, 11:31 AM | #959 | |
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Seems like you, me, and Alan are in the early-morning crowd -- I would love to see us all in a race to see who can wake up first, and vote/unvote everyone else (or each other). |
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08-10-2007, 11:31 AM | #960 |
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Purdue, for what it is worth I didn't think you were going to move your vote. In fact, I almost posted asking JHandley to vote for Gonzo as I felt like I had a better chance at his vote than yours.
You seemed pretty set on your play yesterday, even when it was clear I wasn't going to be lynched and there was a Pass/Lathum showdown late that involved a wolf. In terms of DT's suggestion that Gonzo + Lathum are wolves, I don't think so at all. I'm guessing that the wolves are some combination of Gonzo, you, and either KWhit or Path. I like to think I'm a clever player, but I'm trying to help the Indians here. |
08-10-2007, 11:36 AM | #961 |
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you know me hoops, just floating ideas out there, seeing what gets a reaction
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08-10-2007, 11:36 AM | #962 | |
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Here is my trust list from yesterday. I followed posting it with the first vote on Passacaglia. I kept my vote on him all day long, even when it would have been idiotic to do so with a fellow wolf. If you think I would build trust as a wolf by conceding the minor victory, I can respect that opinion. If you think that I would throw away a wolf who wasn't in jeopardy at the start of the day, when in the process of shutting out the village, then I think you are taking crazy pills. The argument of me trying to earn trust through villager-like actions really falls apart here. I'll argue this one all day with anyone who cares to contest this point. |
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08-10-2007, 11:36 AM | #963 |
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No. No no no no no no no no no no no no no no no no no no no no no no.
We lynch hoops tonight. If he comes up good we lynch Gonzo tomorrow. Do not let him sway you. If you are part of a vote to lynch the seer Jack Parkman will do everything in his power to make sure you are lynched. This is basic gameplay here. If it was somebody else in the position, and with the numbers we have, hoops would absolutely be on the other side of this argument. We have the luxury of finding out tonight. There has not been another seer coming out. You trust the one that does, especially when it is such an easily proven reveal. If hoops somehow wrangles out of this, Jack Parkman (and path) will be in awe. And extremely disappointed in those who let him get away.
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08-10-2007, 11:37 AM | #964 |
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path said some things yesterday that were enough to get me to move my vote off of him, but I am not 100% convinced on him (or really anybody cept myself at this point)
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08-10-2007, 11:40 AM | #965 | |
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Here is the vote from yesterday. Gonzo jumps on Pass for the fake reveal because he is the actual seer. He gets converted last night as a result of it. Personally, I was working under the impression that JE was the seer at the end of yesterday but seems like I was wrong on that count. THe other wolves are going to be the guys on either me or Lathum yesterday. They were trying to save their own in what was a pretty close vote. |
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08-10-2007, 11:46 AM | #966 | |
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As much as it hurts me to have to say this, I agree with Jack Parkman whole-heartedly. |
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08-10-2007, 11:52 AM | #967 |
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my head hurts
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08-10-2007, 11:54 AM | #968 | |
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I would like to think that I would look at how the seer reveal went down. I agree with the bias, and the correctness of your statement in a neutral context. But I'm obviously not in a position to treat it abstractly when I'm being falsely accused. And I would ask you to take a look at the timeline of his accusation - thinking he is dead, the post from Chief Rum that all posts are out, Gonzo voting on another person first, and then unvoting to "reveal" me. Look at the sequence, as well as the timestamps on those, and tell me that this makes any sense. Look at his explanation for how he viewed me because of events that took place after the deadline, when he could no longer put in an order to view me. I personally think it is a badly butchered fake reveal, but everyone wanted to believe it pretty badly based on the votes immediately following before I even got a chance to respond. |
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08-10-2007, 11:57 AM | #969 |
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More, more. This is fun.
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Come and see. |
08-10-2007, 11:58 AM | #970 |
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Hoops: If Gonzo is a bad seer, why would he reveal you as a wolf, as that puts him in jeopardy. Why not, instead, reveal three known villagers, going under Lathum's, "I just want to get a COT started" theory? By the time people outside that circle were all killed, along with Gonzo, it would be tough pickings going back into that circle and figuring out who is good and who is bad. This to me is the biggest reason to think that you are indeed a wolf. A wolf seer should not reveal a false wolf, since then they die the next day.
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08-10-2007, 12:04 PM | #971 |
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Barkeep, I don't know why he played it the way he played it. I've speculated that they feel very confident about their numbers, but I honestly don't know. This would make more sense to me if it was happening a day later, as I would be surprised if the bad guys got three starting wolves plus a conversion.
All I can tell you on that is that if Jonathan is not the seer (I thought he was after last night) then they converted Gonzo the seer because that is the only scenario I can construct where he comes after me like this. And if Jonathan is the seer then this is a bigger blunder than I think it is now. I'm willing to accept that he scanned Lathum, as Lathum seems to feel that he was trusted earlier. I have no idea if he scanned you, me, or anyone else prior to being converted. |
08-10-2007, 12:04 PM | #972 |
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I will point out that the only time it makes sense for a wolf seer to reveal someone as a wolf, is if he is a wolf. In that case he gains trust, of course it is a short term success when he doesn't turn up dead after a couple of days.
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08-10-2007, 12:08 PM | #973 | |
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08-10-2007, 12:09 PM | #974 |
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Path, and others who are putting credence in the "no other seer has come forward" argument.
No one has come forward to dispute me as the Scout either. Chief has said that this is a straight-forward game. If no one disputes that I'm the scout, then why does the lack of contention on Gonzo's claim mean more than the lack of contention on my claim? If you accept that Gonzo is the seer, and that I am the Scout, and that we were both playing for the good guys up to last night (which is what I believe to be the truth) then I think you have to examine his play from 10PM EST on. Or, to be more precise, from the time that he would have gotten his night-time PM. That timestamp for me was 10:56PM EST. If you think that his play from that point on is consistent with a villager, you should vote me. If you think that his play from that point on is suspect, then you should vote for him. |
08-10-2007, 12:11 PM | #975 |
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08-10-2007, 12:12 PM | #976 | |
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The safe play is not the right play. Look, I play the percentages all the time when I have incomplete information. I get the logic. But if you accept that the wolves are making a mathematically correct play based on their understanding of their capabilities (a topic they understand better than us) then we might not end up getting the 1:1 trade-off you are looking for in this exchange. |
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08-10-2007, 12:20 PM | #977 |
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08-10-2007, 12:21 PM | #978 |
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Hoops, why the hell would a wolf fake reveal after losing a packmate and not killing in the previous cycle? That's almost suicidal.
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08-10-2007, 12:28 PM | #979 |
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Gonzo, if I wanted to hurt the village I would have skipped the first two times. You saw what happened when it was left to Parkman to win the game. Of couse, the fact that I stepped-it-up earlier was a meaningless distraction but now that I missed an action it is the basis for your argument? Dude, in case you forgot you are claiming to be the seer. You don't need to resort to arguments about stepping-it-up ... just rely on your claim and people wanting to believe it. You are operating in a position of strength and are only likely to blow it by talking too much and saying dumb things.
Additionally, if I was a wolf I would have tried to save a fellow wolf the night before. I wouldn't have turned the spotlight on him earlier in the day when dominating the game, I wouldn't have listed him at the absolute bottom of my trust list. I would be beyond stupid to try and build trust to the detriment of my teammates. Seriously, who would be more likely to be scanned this game, me or Pass? If I was playing as a wolf, push comes to shove, I would have allowed him to push me out of the game to make himself a hero rather than the other way around. But there was no reason for push to come to shove yesterday if I'm playing co-wolf with Pass. I'm not getting a vote change from Gonzo or Purdue. It sounds like it will take an act of god to get one from Path, which leaves me with Barkeep, Lathum, and Jonathan. Realistically, I probably need two out of those three to avoid any late-vote-move hijinks. |
08-10-2007, 12:41 PM | #980 |
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Hoops: Actually, your actions could be entirely consistent with what I've been saying all along. You, as the wolf, were going for the major win. You didn't care about the games and figured we could win them. Then when it looks like someone on your side is going down, strangely enough because of your actions, you didn't send in your step it up last night since it seemed like you might want to try for that minor victory.
Also in a "typical" WW game, there can often be a lesser role, such as the scout or duke, who is on the bad guy side. I see no reason to think that a wolf having such a role is inconsistent with the typical game CR say that this is. |
08-10-2007, 12:41 PM | #981 |
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Gonzo: Can you explain your voting for DT then for hoops? That really does need explanation.
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08-10-2007, 01:03 PM | #982 | |
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Great point. Didn't think of that. We know one of them is a wolf. I'd rather lose the scout than the seer, so if we're going to be wrong, I'd rather be wrong lynching Hoops than Gonzo. UNVOTE GONZO VOTE HOOPSGUY |
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08-10-2007, 01:03 PM | #983 |
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08-10-2007, 01:05 PM | #984 | |
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And this is why I said I probably needed two out of three earlier to avert vote switches. You guys have your roadmap going forward to find the remaining wolves. Just hope you have time to do it. |
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08-10-2007, 01:08 PM | #985 |
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I'm slow. Where are we supposed to go after Gonzo, if you're indeed as innocent as a newborn.
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08-10-2007, 01:09 PM | #986 |
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gonzo: scan me and then come back and tell everyone what you find out. And then we'll know if you're for real or you've been converted.
the esteemed BK does have a point though: better to lose the scout than the seer. this is all horribly fuster-clucked though. GJ by whichever of you two is a wolf in throwing enough doubt into things. UNVOTE GONZO |
08-10-2007, 01:11 PM | #987 | |
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This post, plus my trust list from yesterday - basically the bottom four from yesterday's list. Pass - hung as wolf KWhit - wrong side of every vote, very atypical game Path - don't know Brad - don't know, but quickly moving up the suspect list And the converted seer, Gonzo. |
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08-10-2007, 01:12 PM | #988 |
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Personal rant ... I'm extremely bitter about how this is going down, as it will be the first time I've ever been hung as a villager by the villagers in 30+ games of playing WW. Particularly after I've played what I thought was one of my best villager games.
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08-10-2007, 01:13 PM | #989 | |
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I'm pretty sure DaddyTorgo is a wolf, what with Hoopsguy protecting him and all. I was still considering whether to reveal when I made my first vote, the plan then was to lynch DT and then reveal and get Hoops. But I considered my options and thought I might as well reveal, get Hoopsguy and then get DaddyTorgo the next day. |
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08-10-2007, 01:15 PM | #990 |
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there is something to the whole "timing" thing though. I think "the quest stands upon the edge of a knife. Stray but a little and it will fail, to the detriment of all."
and we don't realize it. The wolves have the advantage always in knowing when it's time to move the game along to some type of "endgame" type manuever, really chum the waters. and that's what I think we've got here. for whatever reason the wolves have decided to make some sort of play here. This is the critical time, even though we may not think so. and that makes me see so many reasons within reasons. Hoops could indeed be a wolf, fighting to buy one more day, but could we really be that close to endgame? I don't think so. By the same token, this could be a fake-reveal by Gonzo to try to get a 1:1 trade, but do we really think the wolves are in a position where that's beneficial? |
08-10-2007, 01:15 PM | #991 |
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Gonzo, and why did you think you were dead when you read your PM at first?
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08-10-2007, 01:17 PM | #992 | |
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After I got the PM saying you were a wolf, Chief Rum said: "Do me a favor and don't say anything (if you were planning to) until I post the night game action. I am writing right now. Thanks!". I thought I was a goner. |
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08-10-2007, 01:20 PM | #993 | |
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That seems hard to believe... is that actually true? |
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08-10-2007, 01:20 PM | #994 |
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08-10-2007, 01:21 PM | #995 |
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ya know what. fuck that. Maybe gonzo is the seer, but he's wrong about me and he's pushing extremely hard considering he has no information. Not a very seer-esque thing to do. I can't vote with him on the basis of that.
VOTE GONZO |
08-10-2007, 01:23 PM | #996 | |||||||
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I asked someone else to do this so I wouldn't be accused of bias in reporting the posts. But I've listed post #'s and timestamps for each of them, along with the time that I received my night/Scout PM. 864 - 14 minutes after deadline (DT post on bad internet) 868 - 30 minutes after deadline (Lathum post calling out DT) 870 - 32 minutes after deadline (Chief posts results) I got night PM 56 minutes after deadline 895 - 60 minutes after deadline (Gonzo posts I'm dead) 901 - 73 minutes after deadline (Chief posts ballgame results) 908 - 88 minutes after deadline (Chief posts all PMs are out) 911 - 91 minutes after deadline (Gonzo votes for DT) 915 - 101 minutes after deadline (Gonzo reveals as seer, changes vote to me) |
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08-10-2007, 01:24 PM | #997 |
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08-10-2007, 01:25 PM | #998 | |
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I think you're a wolf because you've admitted using the faulty internet play as a wolf in previous games when you've also used it in this game. Add to that when Lathum (good) and I jumped on you, Hoops (confirmed wolf) tried to defend you. |
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08-10-2007, 01:29 PM | #999 |
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hoops: I think Gonzo's story checks out all around though. I agree the timeline is conducive to the argument you're giving, but Gonzo's explanation is reasonable.
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08-10-2007, 01:52 PM | #1000 |
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if hoops is indeed a wolf I submit that he's known I was a villager all along and was likely trying to buy my loyalty for a time like this by supporting me since him+I know you are wrong.
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