POTUS 2024 - Harris vs Trump - General Election Discussion

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

Assuming these are legit leaks and not fabrications. They may be, but again, to what I said about the media wanting this to snowball...

(Red side, too. I'm sure they are loving all this.)

Honestly, this feels like an opportunity for the rest of us who are more blue but hate Biden to get him out and reset things moving forward. We need a better leader. So it's more than just media, or Rs, there's a lot more of us who want to push on the button that makes him go than just that.

[thesloppy]

Right-wing media will gladly cover and obscure any of Trump's gaffes, while they and the rest of the media will gleefully report Biden's gaffes. It's not a level playing field, but you can't put that toothpase back in the tube, in 5 months time, either.

[cuervo72]

Yeah, but can everybody agree on one w/o alienating others within the party?

The pundit class need to get a grip

I mean, this (PilotMan's line) perfectly illustrates Atocep's line "Dems are looking for reasons to not vote for their candidates."

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Atocep

I'm not going to argue that Biden is the best candidate but the GOP finds things to attack Dem candidates with and make dem voters question their candidate and they fall for it every time.

Meanwhile the GOP is voting for their guy no matter what. They don't care. They see us as in a cold war currently and it's winner take all.

This is why dems are the majority in this country and losing every fight. Dems are looking for reasons to not vote for their candidates and the GOP just wants to win.

The difference is that the GOP gives their voters a candidate that they like and want to vote for. The Dems pick a candidate that the leaders of the party want and demand unconditional support.

People knock Trump supporters as cultists but he changes his stance based on what his voters want. He did a 180 on the vaccine that his administration helped spearhead. Swapped his position on banning TikTok. His events are kind of a way to test out what the audience likes and doesn't like. He has no real ideology besides making a subset of people happy.

Meanwhile Democrats lied about Biden's condition for years and then at the last minute want to blackmail their supporters into voting for him. His policies have been fueled by donors and he's done some incredibly unpopular things to appease them. When people were shocked at how poor he looked mentally at the debate, they called their base bedwetters and blamed a cold (now I guess he says it's excess travel).

I think the best description I've seen is Republican politicians are scared of upsetting their base. Democrats don't care. And part of that is because Democratic leadership is perfectly happy with Republicans in power.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

I mean, this perfectly illustrates Atocep's line "Dems are looking for reasons to not vote for their candidates."

No one is looking for a reason. The reason is clear. He's unpopular and has dementia.

[cuervo72]

I forget, have you told everyone who this mystic hero is that everyone wants to vote for?

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

The difference is that the GOP gives their voters a candidate that they like and want to vote for. The Dems pick a candidate that the leaders of the party want and demand unconditional support.

People knock Trump supporters as cultists but he changes his stance based on what his voters want. He did a 180 on the vaccine that his administration helped spearhead. Swapped his position on banning TikTok. His events are kind of a way to test out what the audience likes and doesn't like. He has no real ideology besides making a subset of people happy.

Meanwhile Democrats lied about Biden's condition for years and then at the last minute want to blackmail their supporters into voting for him. His policies have been fueled by donors and he's done some incredibly unpopular things to appease them. When people were shocked at how poor he looked mentally at the debate, they called their base bedwetters and blamed a cold (now I guess he says it's excess travel).

I think the best description I've seen is Republican politicians are scared of upsetting their base. Democrats don't care. And part of that is because Democratic leadership is perfectly happy with Republicans in power.

McCain wasn't who they wanted and they went with him. Romney definitely wasn't someone they wanted but he had a close election with Obama. Trump wasn't even the guy they wanted until he got the nomination. Regardless of candidate the party gets behind their nominee.

Establishment dems and progressives can't get behind the same candidate and each blames the other for their problems and lack of candidate support. It has little to do with selecting better candidates because a significant part of the party will never be happy with who's picked and if dems aren't happy with a candidate they won't show up to vote.

[timmynausea]

The offshore books now have the odds of Biden withdrawing from the election before the end of July at 75%.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

I forget, have you told everyone who this mystic hero is that everyone wants to vote for?

Someone without dementia is a good start.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Someone without dementia is a good start.

That's not answering the question. Name, please.

[cuervo72]

Also, I missed when you became Dr. RainMaker.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

I still think Taylor Swift could jump in and become president if she wanted to.

She has my vote.

[GrantDawg]

See, everything is fine now. Nothing to worry about.

JUST IN: President Biden and Vice President Harris are participating in an all-staff call with their campaign team in Wilmington, according to a source familiar with the matter to NBC News

— MSNBC (@MSNBC) July 3, 2024

[RainMaker]

For replacements, here are Dem polling numbers in battleground states against Trump. Biggest surprise to me is how popular Mayor Pete seems to be.



And this one which adjusts for name recognition which is important as the replacement will gain in recognition over time.

[Ksyrup]

This feels like it's the Monday-Wednesday before Thanksgiving and your FB team is 4-7 and it's the perfect time to cut bait on your coach, take the long weekend plus the following week before your next game to reassess everything, get some new blood in there, and hope for a magical bounce to close out the season.

[cartman]

in a FEC filing, Trump lists Michael Flynn as his VP

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

And this one which adjusts for name recognition which is important as the replacement will gain in recognition over time.

I think you're implying that the first set of numbers will become like the 2nd set as the candidate gains recognition. I don't think I agree with that -- I think those charts say more about the people who do and don't recognize those names.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by cartman

in a FEC filing, Trump lists Michael Flynn as his VP

no fucking way. is he? To me, that's not a move that gains votes. He's a total fucking crackpot and another criminal to boot. Maybe that's exactly who the republicans are ready to go for this year. Flynn has totally lost his marbles.

[cartman]

Here's a link:

https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/for...20406/1793385/

[Danny]

This election can obsolutely still be won with a new candiate. Time to make the move.

[cuervo72]

I mean, if the guy on the top of the ticket has completely lost his marbles, I can't see the party exactly going "oh, well THIS is a bridge too far"...

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

no fucking way. is he? To me, that's not a move that gains votes. He's a total fucking crackpot and another criminal to boot. Maybe that's exactly who the republicans are ready to go for this year. Flynn has totally lost his marbles.

Guess they're really going for it.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Danny

This election can obsolutely still be won with a new candiate. Time to make the move.

True but Dem leadership and Biden don't really give a shit.

[cartman]

now the campaign is denying it

'Fraud': Trump campaign denies federal filing naming Michael Flynn as VP running mate - Raw Story

[RainMaker]

I can't fathom he picks anyone who would take an ounce of attention away from him. I still think it'll be Burgum because he is as boring as it gets.

[timmynausea]

Slogan idea for Harris/Obama or Harris/Whitmer: "Two chicks at the same time."

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Danny

This election can obsolutely still be won with a new candiate. Time to make the move.

Based on what?

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Based on what?

Even if you don't believe that the others who are polling better than Biden can win, it's pretty clear Biden stands no shot unless they can cure dementia in the next few weeks.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Based on what?

Common sense. Prior to this last debate Biden was given a shot in pollls. Just about any decent candidate with a few months of campaigning (especially in the age of internet and smart phones) will get more votes than Biden. There are a lot of dems like Rainmaker who cant stand Biden. Trump is beatable. A new candidate they may not love but theyll be more likely to turn out for. Not saying its guarenteed but i think theres a decent shot.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by timmynausea

Slogan idea for Harris/Obama or Harris/Whitmer: "Two chicks at the same time."

"Two girls, one White-house."

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by cartman

in a FEC filing, Trump lists Michael Flynn as his VP

It is the kind of name that is completely insane, but exactly the kind of pick I am expecting. He is not going with one of the more traditional names that have been floated.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

no fucking way. is he? To me, that's not a move that gains votes. He's a total fucking crackpot and another criminal to boot. Maybe that's exactly who the republicans are ready to go for this year. Flynn has totally lost his marbles.

I'm think it is time we seriously recognize that this country wants a fascist government. Americans are craving a dictator to come in and punish all the people that aren't like them that are "ruining the country." I don't think this is a trick of the media, or some blind cult. It is what the people are craving, and they are about to get it.

[JPhillips]

A minority of Americans.

That's why we can't let it happen.

[JPhillips]

dola

So let's say Biden steps down and Harris is the candidate. Doesn't that make the VP choice hard to accept for a lot of rising stars? You'll either lose and be tainted with that or you'll win and Harris will run again in 2028. Even if you win then, how much chance is there for the Dems to win four consecutive Presidential races? It isn't a slam dunk decision for an ambitious pol.

[Danny]

Thats the depressing part. The politicians care more about themselves then representing America and saving the country from Trump.

[timmynausea]

Originally Posted by timmynausea

The offshore books now have the odds of Biden withdrawing from the election before the end of July at 75%.

Accounting for the juice, this is now at ~56% chance he withdraws.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

A minority of Americans.

That's why we can't let it happen.

Majority aren't paying attention, they just know eggs cost .50 more than 5 years ago.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

A minority of Americans.

That's why we can't let it happen.

You sure? WSJ poll has Trump up by 6 national. So does CNN. A Republican candidate can easily lose the popular vote by 4-6% and still win. If Democrat can't win the popular vote by more than 4, they are likely to lose. So, are people saying that Biden is so old just let the fascist take over? Or are they saying they are just fine with the fascist as long as the price of milk goes down? Either way, they are clearly saying they don't care if the fascist wins.

[Ksyrup]

I find it interesting that the same exclusionary factors at work in other, non-political/cultural scenarios come into play with people who would otherwise be aligned.

For instance, when I was a law student, all law students were pissed at how badly we were treated during the bar admittance process and how ridiculously tedious and arbitrary the things were that kept people from getting cleared. Then, once we were cleared and passed the bar, all of a sudden we were like, "the bar admittance process is too easy. No one else should be admitted!"

I think we're seeing the same phenomenon with minorities. Seems like the thought is that minorities would stick together and it's basically white people who want to keep the "others" out of the country but part of what's fueling the GOP right now is minorities wanting to keep immigrants - even from their own background/country - out. We're here, but we don't need any more of us here. Shut it down.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

dola

So let's say Biden steps down and Harris is the candidate. Doesn't that make the VP choice hard to accept for a lot of rising stars? You'll either lose and be tainted with that or you'll win and Harris will run again in 2028. Even if you win then, how much chance is there for the Dems to win four consecutive Presidential races? It isn't a slam dunk decision for an ambitious pol.

Pete Buttigieg would stab his own mother to be VP. He would accept without hesitation.

[GrantDawg]

He owns the evangelicals now, and he will always be the reason Roe is gone. So now, play a little to the independents....

Trump Poised to Rip 40-Year-Old Pro-Life Plank Out of GOP Platform https://t.co/HLM0UGVBtL pic.twitter.com/j3RU2GBARg

— John McCormack (@McCormackJohn) July 3, 2024

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I'm think it is time we seriously recognize that this country wants a fascist government. Americans are craving a dictator to come in and punish all the people that aren't like them that are "ruining the country." I don't think this is a trick of the media, or some blind cult. It is what the people are craving, and they are about to get it.

There is definitely a segment that craves authoritarianism. But I think shifts toward fascist governments are more a sign of a failure of government to make the lives better of the people living in the country. Hitler didn't just come out of nowhere, he used the conditions of the public to promote his ideology and people were desperate for any kind of answer.

For decades, Republicans solution to problems with a failing middle class has been tax cuts and handouts to the rich. It obviously doesn't work. Democrats solution to the problems is to just say there is nothing they can do. Again, doesn't make anyone's life better.

So now you've got two parties that have completely abandoned the poor and middle class of the country for decades. Most of this is by design as they're controlled by corporate interests. People are desperate for any kind of solution to make their life better and Trump is offering them a solution. It's not a real solution to the problem, but it's offering something.

I guess what I'm saying is that I think a rise in fascism or authoritarianism has more to do with the failures of government and less to do with a population who just wants their own Mussolini.

[Saul Goode]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

There is definitely a segment that craves authoritarianism. But I think shifts toward fascist governments are more a sign of a failure of government to make the lives better of the people living in the country. Hitler didn't just come out of nowhere, he used the conditions of the public to promote his ideology and people were desperate for any kind of answer.

For decades, Republicans solution to problems with a failing middle class has been tax cuts and handouts to the rich. It obviously doesn't work. Democrats solution to the problems is to just say there is nothing they can do. Again, doesn't make anyone's life better.

So now you've got two parties that have completely abandoned the poor and middle class of the country for decades. Most of this is by design as they're controlled by corporate interests. People are desperate for any kind of solution to make their life better and Trump is offering them a solution. It's not a real solution to the problem, but it's offering something.

I guess what I'm saying is that I think a rise in fascism or authoritarianism has more to do with the failures of government and less to do with a population who just wants their own Mussolini.

Come on, really? A whole lot of drivel in there.

First off, post ww1 Germany experienced huge amounts of inflation causing frustration and poverty. Don't give me some logical fallacy comparing that to modern day America. If today's Americans are so desperate to vote for a narcissistic, pathological liar because gas rose by 40 cents a gallon.....

Democrats can't accomplish anything because of Mitch McConnell and the filibuster. It's an archaic and useless legislative technique that stops progress in America. This is perfect for a party that actively wants to go back in time. Regress, not progress.

You get what you vote for. The party than wants to enrich itself, while lying constantly about any and everything. The average American isn't smart enough to realize they are getting conned. They are voting for wolves and complain when they get bit. They like trump, because he is a racist. They are racist, and don't like they can't be openly racist anymore. It's why when you hear, I like trump, he tells it like it is....all that means is I wish I could be openly racist again. MAGA in a nutshell.

Insert LBJ quote about gaining power by fooling the racist. Btw, for some one that says they are for Biden, everything you post sounds like it's coming out of the mouth of a trumper.

[Saul Goode]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

You sure? WSJ poll has Trump up by 6 national. So does CNN. A Republican candidate can easily lose the popular vote by 4-6% and still win. If Democrat can't win the popular vote by more than 4, they are likely to lose. So, are people saying that Biden is so old just let the fascist take over? Or are they saying they are just fine with the fascist as long as the price of milk goes down? Either way, they are clearly saying they don't care if the fascist wins.

I'm not chastising you, but this whole posting a general opinion based on one poll has to stop. If any person is telling you how things are based on one poll, they are being disingenuous and trying to manipulate you. If you look at the aggregate of post-debate polling(538 article), Biden is only down 1 percentage point. In statistics, that is called noise. All this bs based on one poll by Bob Bannon polling,lol. All bullshit.

[GrantDawg]

I actually quoted two (CNN and WSJ), but they are far from the only two. Biden up by 1 in aggtate means he could be down by 3 at least by polling error. And that aggregate includes polls well before the debate. CNN and WSJ are post debate, and from all reports, the Dems' internal polls are saying the exact same things.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Saul Goode

Democrats can't accomplish anything because of Mitch McConnell and the filibuster. It's an archaic and useless legislative technique that stops progress in America. This is perfect for a party that actively wants to go back in time. Regress, not progress.

Like I said, when your platform is "there is nothing we can do", don't be surprised when people cling to an extremist who is offering to help. Desperate people will look anywhere they can for help.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Saul Goode

I'm not chastising you, but this whole posting a general opinion based on one poll has to stop. If any person is telling you how things are based on one poll, they are being disingenuous and trying to manipulate you. If you look at the aggregate of post-debate polling(538 article), Biden is only down 1 percentage point. In statistics, that is called noise. All this bs based on one poll by Bob Bannon polling,lol. All bullshit.

Now look at the polls in swing states that Biden has to win.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

You sure? WSJ poll has Trump up by 6 national. So does CNN. A Republican candidate can easily lose the popular vote by 4-6% and still win. If Democrat can't win the popular vote by more than 4, they are likely to lose. So, are people saying that Biden is so old just let the fascist take over? Or are they saying they are just fine with the fascist as long as the price of milk goes down? Either way, they are clearly saying they don't care if the fascist wins.

Even now Trump is polling under 50% and that's with 20-25% of adults not voting. Trump can win, but there hasn't been any indication that Trumpism has majority support. If we were actually a majority rules country there would be a much lower threat of white nationalism taking over.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Seems like the thought is that minorities would stick together and it's basically white people who want to keep the "others" out of the country but part of what's fueling the GOP right now is minorities wanting to keep immigrants - even from their own background/country - out. We're here, but we don't need any more of us here. Shut it down.

And a bit of class warfare as well. "We're struggling to make ends meet, we don't need someone else coming in and taking what we can barely (do, afford, make) etc.

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Pete Buttigieg would stab his own mother to be VP. He would accept without hesitation.

As well he should.

Really, the man we want in the White House is John Stewart. We need to laugh more. He could do it better than Biden, and he competes with trump's need to entertain.

[CrimsonFox]

They may as well name this country Stormy Daniels since we're having Trump shoved down our throat.