WW 103? - 42 Attempts (Game Over - Conspirators Win)

[Danny]

But then again considering she never came out with anything, it's quite possible she never found a wolf. I don't think she dropped any hints either, so may be screwed.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

But then again considering she never came out with anything, it's quite possible she never found a wolf. I don't think she dropped any hints either, so may be screwed.

A scan is a scan. Just because she didn't find a wolf (presuming), doesn't mean we wouldn't learn something. We could have cleared three more people, unless they all happened to be killed already.

[Chief Rum]

So any word on our hurt compatriots, EF?

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

A scan is a scan. Just because she didn't find a wolf (presuming), doesn't mean we wouldn't learn something. We could have cleared three more people, unless they all happened to be killed already.

That's not what I meant. I was referring to the likelihood Jackal was a wolf. I have to believe that if Jackal had been scanned bad, Telle would have came out. Im pointing out that her Jackal vote is not necessarily damning of him.

[EagleFan]

The word from the hospital is good. All three are alive and have been released. They may resume in thread.

The word from France is not as good. The Allies have landed and have gained a foothold in Europe.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

A scan is a scan. Just because she didn't find a wolf (presuming), doesn't mean we wouldn't learn something. We could have cleared three more people, unless they all happened to be killed already.

In honesty, my gut told me the seer might have been one of the ICU'd. I am surprised there wasn't a reveal with the limited field of night kill players today.

[Schmidty]

Good and.....very bad. We killed a potential wolf, but also offed the Seer. Stating the obvious, but still. I'm at a loss right now. With all apologies to Danny (great player), I'll be going with my gut from here forward. Unless something obvious comes up.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

The word from France is not as good. The Allies have landed and have gained a foothold in Europe.

Is this just flavor, or actually a game mechanic?

[Danny]

Final Day One Vote

KWhit 2 - Darth Vilus (80), PurdueBrad (105)
Lathum 1 - DaddyTorgo (96)
Darth Vilus 2 - Autumn (91), Telle (219)
Chief Rum 5 - ntndeacon (92), bulletsponge (110), GldenEagle (213), LoneStarGirl (221), Danny (223)
DaddyTorgo 7 - Lathum (102), J23 (106), hoopsguy (113), Abe Sargent (125), Scmidty (153), The Jackal (163), Chief Rum (230)
LoneStarGirl 1 - JAG (193)

No vote: KWhit

Final Vote Day 2:

Darth Vilus 8 - PurdueBad (403), Autumn (408), KWhit (436), ntndeacon (440), JAG (452), Chief Rum (467), Abe Sargent (476), J23 (539)
ntndeacon 1 - Lathum (432)
Chief Rum 6 - Darth Vilus (421), bulletsponge (425), Telle (438), Danny (447), The Jackal (479), Schmidty (481)

Final Vote Day 3

bulletsponge 7 - Danny (618), Schmidty (655), Telle (671), PurdueBrad (687), ntndeacon (698), Lathum (733), Abe Sargent (738)
The Jackal 4 - J23 (627), Chief Rum (664), bulletsponge (682), Autumn (723)
ntndeacon 3 - KWhit (654), The Jackal (657), JAG (690)

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Good and.....very bad. We killed a potential wolf, but also offed the Seer. Stating the obvious, but still. I'm at a loss right now. With all apologies to Danny (great player), I'll be going with my gut from here forward. Unless something obvious comes up.

Well, we didn't off the seer, but I am assuming you just meant lost them.

For the second part, this has not been a shining moment game for me, so feel free

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

That's not what I meant. I was referring to the likelihood Jackal was a wolf. I have to believe that if Jackal had been scanned bad, Telle would have came out. Im pointing out that her Jackal vote is not necessarily damning of him.

I doubt she scanned The Jackal yet. Probably wasn't even much looked at before my analysis, when I highlighted him. And then last night, if she hadn't scanned me yet (note, BTW, she had voted for me and today she made a point to...just sayin'...), she would have scanned me for sure, or one of the other votegetters (ntn?) if she had already scanned me.

The Jackal was a likely scan candidate tonight.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I doubt she scanned The Jackal yet. Probably wasn't even much looked at before my analysis, when I highlighted him. And then last night, if she hadn't scanned me yet (note, BTW, she had voted for me and today she made a point to...just sayin'...), she would have scanned me for sure, or one of the other votegetters (ntn?) if she had already scanned me.

The Jackal was a likely scan candidate tonight.

That's basically what I was saying and I do have to believe that she likely would have scanned you. But I'm not going to assume it's 100%. Plus there is a cunning wolf.

[Chief Rum]

made a point NOT to, I mean.

[Danny]

As far as numbers are concerned, we are either 7-4 of 8-3 right now.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

That's basically what I was saying and I do have to believe that she likely would have scanned you. But I'm not going to assume it's 100%. Plus there is a cunning wolf.

Yup, aware of the cunning. At this point, we couldn't really do anything about that. We simply had to go with what info we had, and could only afford to question past "clears" if we were drawing a blank on candidates.

Doesn't matter now, though, since we never found out about any scans.

[Danny]

I really wish we knew CR's allegiance.

The thing I usually do best is vote analysis and patterns, especially when there is at least one wolf found. I may end up going with my gut the next vote

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Yup, aware of the cunning. At this point, we couldn't really do anything about that. We simply had to go with what info we had, and could only afford to question past "clears" if we were drawing a blank on candidates.

Doesn't matter now, though, since we never found out about any scans.

We're pretty much in a situation of needing to get lucky. We have no info from scans or a caught wolf or even one under fire as far as we know.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

As far as numbers are concerned, we are either 7-4 of 8-3 right now.

I hope we're 8-3, but I suspect it's 7-4. Which means tomorrow is the penultimate day. If we don't get a wolf tomorrow, we will be basically in a do or die situation Monday.

And that doesn't even account for the Stauffenberg assassination attempt that could still be coming. There's a meeting tomorrow.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

I really wish we knew CR's allegiance.

I wish you knew, too.

Suffice to say, if the village comes after me yet again at this point, it will be completing a stretch of weird stretch of voting ineptitude. You would think after five days, a wolf would be found out of sheer luck.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Is this just flavor, or actually a game mechanic?

Pretty much just flavor, going to tie into the reason given for the next meeting.

[Danny]

Out of everyone, mygut for a wolf is Autumn.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

Out of everyone, mygut for a wolf is Autumn.

Any particular evidentiary fuel behind your gut?

I still like The Jackal as a wolf.

[Danny]

Day 1

KWhit 2 - Darth Vilus (80), PurdueBrad (105)
Lathum 1 - DaddyTorgo (96)
Darth Vilus 2 - Autumn (91), Telle (219)
Chief Rum 5 - ntndeacon (92), bulletsponge (110), GldenEagle (213), LoneStarGirl (221), Danny (223)
DaddyTorgo 7 - Lathum (102), J23 (106), hoopsguy (113), Abe Sargent (125), Scmidty (153), The Jackal (163), Chief Rum (230)
LoneStarGirl 1 - JAG (193)

[Danny]

Also Kwhit, who didn't vote. I think based on typical wolf play, there is a good chance that at least 1, if not 2 of them are wolves.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Any particular evidentiary fuel behind your gut?

I still like The Jackal as a wolf.

Just a couple posts of his that pinged me though I can't point them out now. And now that I looked closer at day 1, he stands out based on something more objective.

[Danny]

PurdueBrad
Autumn
Kwhit

I think that group right there gives us the best chance to hit a wolf as based on typical wolf play, 2 of those are likely to be wolves.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

Also Kwhit, who didn't vote. I think based on typical wolf play, there is a good chance that at least 1, if not 2 of them are wolves.

Don't go too strong after KWhit, he'll come after you.

Seriously, both PB and KWhit were on the middle ground when I looked at things and the removal of more "serious" candidates has elevated both of them higher, IMO. I probably would put PB behind The Jackal, and have to look further at KWhit.

[Danny]

I think we need to look away from Jackal for now. , if there are four wolves, I think having two of them put a vote on DT and then have the other two go elsewhere would have been the likely result. If the wolves rolled the dice and all stacked their votes, then kudos to them, but I think we have to go with what the wolves do 95% of the time.

[Danny]

Vote Autumn

I know this hasn't been my best game, but I think the information we now have from day 1 is the best we have had all game.

[Danny]

Autumn over the others is my gut call, but I think a PB vote is good as well.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

Vote Autumn

I know this hasn't been my best game, but I think the information we now have from day 1 is the best we have had all game.

I think PB is a better candidate than Autumn, using the objective rational you have with the Day One results. PB rated more suspicious in my analysis than Autumn.

There are other reasons to vote for The Jackal than figuring on a 2 for 2 guess in the Day One vote (and that assumes four wolves). He put a runaway vote on DT before the run on me developed, and he was a notable member of the "not at the meeting" group, at which we have suppoosed there could be more wolves than were at the meeting.

[Danny]

Also, for wolves we have either 7-3 or 6-4 as we had the number off by 1. This could be end game for the wolves.

CR, you have to admit that it's very very likely there is at least 1 if not 2 wolves in that group of 3. Jackal does not appear the best choice right now.

[Danny]

1st meeting

Danny
Telle
GoldenEagle
JAG
J23
Kwhit
PurdueBrad

Not at meeting

1. Lathum
2. The Jackal
3. Schmidty
6. Autumn
11. Abe Sargent
12. Chief Rum
14. ntndeacon
17. bulletsponge

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

Also, for wolves we have either 7-3 or 6-4 as we had the number off by 1. This could be end game for the wolves.

CR, you have to admit that it's very very likely there is at least 1 if not 2 wolves in that group of 3. Jackal does not appear the best choice right now.

Why, because you put together the list?

Try this:

Autumn
Purdue Brad
The Jackal

I can say the same thing.

I don't see a compelling reason why The Jackal should be considered less strongly than the others. Heck, you're taking a risk in assuming four and that they were able to settle into an easy 2-2 on/not on DT group. If it's three, than there is likely a 50% chance one of your two outside is not a wolf.

I'm not saying they aren't wolves; I just don't see how The Jackal is a worse choice. Going off of the Day One vote to the exclusion of all other evidence seems ripe for making a mistake.

[Danny]

Also, CR's initial reasoning for putting Autumn on the ok list was Autumn having the first second vote. I definitely do not think that elevates him at all.

And like Jackal, Autumn was also not at the meeting.

You can also note that both PB and Kwhit were at the meeting and it was successful. I think that means only of them is likely to be a wolf.

So I think it looks like there's a reasonable chance Autumn and one of PB/Kwhit are wolves.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Why, because you put together the list?

Try this:

Autumn
Purdue Brad
The Jackal

I can say the same thing.

I don't see a compelling reason why The Jackal should be considered less strongly than the others. Heck, you're taking a risk in assuming four and that they were able to settle into an easy 2-2 on/not on DT group. If it's three, than there is likely a 50% chance one of your two outside is not a wolf.

I'm not saying they aren't wolves; I just don't see how The Jackal is a worse choice. Going off of the Day One vote to the exclusion of all other evidence seems ripe for making a mistake.

Before you seemed pretty set on their being four wolves. Now you think only three? With four wolves, it's 90%+ likely two of the three names I gave our wolves. Even with only three wolves, there is a very chance the wolves spread their vote and two of the three could still be wolves. Autumn is also the only one of the three who was not at the meeting.

You also switched up your analysis by before wanting to go with those at the meeting, but now wanting to go with someone who was not.

Your list with Jackal is not close to being the same rationale as my list. My list has common components among all three. If you put in Jackal, you can put in the four others who voted DT as well.

You keep going back to your analysis, but you have already changed that up yourself and it is 3 days old at this point.

[Schmidty]

This game is confusing the hell out of me. By now, we would have normally had at least one wolf, and had something to off of from that.

Anyway, as I said, I'm going gut from here on out. That might make me look bad if I don't pile on or not "spread things out", but this hasn't been working.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

This game is confusing the hell out of me. By now, we would have normally had at least one wolf, and had something to off of from that.

Anyway, as I said, I'm going gut from here on out. That might make me look bad if I don't pile on or not "spread things out", but this hasn't been working.

Just keep in mind it's possible we are at end game, so we will likely need your vote to count in the end.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

Before you seemed pretty set on their being four wolves. Now you think only three? With four wolves, it's 90%+ likely two of the three names I gave our wolves. Even with only three wolves, there is a very chance the wolves spread their vote and two of the three could still be wolves. Autumn is also the only one of the three who was not at the meeting.

You also switched up your analysis by before wanting to go with those at the meeting, but now wanting to go with someone who was not.

Your list with Jackal is not close to being the same rationale as my list. My list has common components among all three. If you put in Jackal, you can put in the four others who voted DT as well.

You keep going back to your analysis, but you have already changed that up yourself and it is 3 days old at this point.

No, I am saying don't jump in blind. Look at all the info, not just what fits one theory. I do think there are four. Would I bet the game on it? No.

And now you're doing the same thing as KWhit and reading into my meeting post far more than I wrote. I said a successful meeting suggests one conspirator, and if we were to go that route, I would look at Telle, KWhit and PB. When KWhit later suggested the opposite, that one wolf means many wolves out, I thought that was a very good point and said so. Sorry I didn't catch 100% of everything the first time through my analysis. Heck, at least I took the time to do it.

Two days old, BTW. I know. I stayed up to do it.

Including KWhit in your group is widening your criteria considerably. You don't know that he wouldn't have voted for DT as well, and even in your theory, you have to figure 1-2 wolves did indeed vote for DT.

[Danny]

Kwhit is also the least likely one I am to vote for. I would vote PB or Autumn before him.

[Chief Rum]

To clarify, I would look at Telle, KWhit and PB for one conspirator. I never thought they were all wolves, and at most two. And now Telle is cleared (unfortunately), so if we go with the one conspirator at the meeting, we have a higher chance there.

This is silly, though, so let's just stop it. I am fine with PB, Autumn, KWhit or The Jackal. It's likely there are a handful of wolves in that group, no matter which theory you subscribe to. So let's stop playing some pointless back and forth for the same result.

[Danny]

I am just very surprised on you being dead set on the Jackal, I read your analysis tonight and don't see him as sticking out that much from the other in there on DT. I also don't understand why you are seemingly defending Autumn.

[Danny]

Ok, fair enough CR and I am not trusting of Jackal just so you know. I only think the %'s are in favor of looking on that list for now.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

I am just very surprised on you being dead set on the Jackal, I read your analysis tonight and don't see him as sticking out that much from the other in there on DT. I also don't understand why you are seemingly defending Autumn.

Danny, stop okay? You're reading too much into what I am writing. I can see an argument for Autumn that's as strong as the others, and I don't feel any inclination to defend him. The only message I am trying to get across to you (and failing ) is that we should have four candidates here. I don't even necessarily think The Jackal is a better choice than those others. I just am saying you shouldn't consider him a less likely candidate than those. There is as much evidence to support his wolfishness as those other three.

[Danny]

FWIW, I think if I were to guess on the wolves, I would probably say

Autumn
PB
Jackal and for the fourth I really don't know.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

Ok, fair enough CR and I am not trusting of Jackal just so you know. I only think the %'s are in favor of looking on that list for now.

Understood. So long as you don't marry yourself to a theory and not consider the entire body of evidence.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Danny, stop okay? You're reading too much into what I am writing. I can see an argument for Autumn that's as strong as the others, and I don't feel any inclination to defend him. The only message I am trying to get across to you (and failing ) is that we should have four candidates here. I don't even necessarily think The Jackal is a better choice than those others. I just am saying you shouldn't consider him a less likely candidate than those. There is as much evidence to support his wolfishness as those other three.

Ok, I will buy that then

[Autumn]

Wow, it was really frustrating not being able to talk. I really wanted to point out to you guys that it was Goring who ordered the investigation, not Hitler. I guess it's a moot point now. :-(

It took a while to catch up on tonight's stuff, and obviously there's a lot about me on there I'll want to respond to. I just popped in to catch up though, so I'll have to respond in length in the morning. I don't right now know who the best candidate is, so I'll need to figure it out. I know it's not me, and no offense, Danny, but I don't think we should be following your lead right now.

If you weren't cleared as Duke, Danny, I think it's certain we would be lynching you based on your voting record, as well as your behavior pushing for ties. It's plain to me that you have your own victory condition in this game. I hope it involves winning with the village, but it clearly also involves getting extra people killed somehow. I have to assume you're a villager, but I can't quite trust your reasons for picking lynch targets.

Anyway, I'll post more in the morning once I can get at my spreadsheet, and have a few more minutes. The three of us lived, at least, and we don't have to worry about Rommel anymore. That's some silver lining. We're down to what? Ten of us? I could have been a lot worse if we'd gotten some bad die rolls.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Autumn

If you weren't cleared as Duke, Danny, I think it's certain we would be lynching you based on your voting record, as well as your behavior pushing for ties. It's plain to me that you have your own victory condition in this game. I hope it involves winning with the village, but it clearly also involves getting extra people killed somehow. I have to assume you're a villager, but I can't quite trust your reasons for picking lynch targets.

My voting is the same as everyone else's actually. Also, I never pushed for ties and have had multiple opportunities to try and make them happen. I simply asked what other's views were. I was looking to see how people responded much more so than looking for a tie.

And no, I have no winning conditions separate from the village.

But the fact you're trying to discredit the one cleared alive person does not help my trust for you. Feel free to break apart my analysis, but trying to discount them by discounting me is a wolfish thing to do.

[Danny]

Further, on the own victory condition thing. It's no where implied in the rules that this is the case and clearly lists me as a loyal member of the nazi party.