Werewolf XXXVII: Middle-Earth - GAME ENDS. Who Won? Check it out!

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Hmm ok, I remember that part. The talk about the failed conversion made me curious as well, but in the end i think he was just telling a short story about tombstone and moved on. Keeping in mind he was the one doing the converting in tombstone and he had direct experience with getting blocked day 1.

I don't think i really agree with him about the signs pointing to a failed conversion, but after his explanation I didnt think as much of it.

Yeah, it wasn't really much, but we didn't have that much to go on yesterday. At this point it's something that I'm mostly going to let drop. Yesterday seems like a fiasco in general.

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

You do realize that you could pick any group of five people left in the game and there is probably a bad guy in the group, right? I don't specifically care about you voting for me, but I don't want other people following you based on faulty logic.

I don't care about any other groups of 5. I think looking at the group of folks who haven't voted for either of then 2 lynch victims is a good place to start looking for someone on the dark side. After that, it's just using my judgement to find the one I want to vote for.

The reason why I went this way is because looking at the folks who haven't voted for a lynchee narrows down the field quite a bit.

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

I have been right about who I think are wolves in past games more than I have been wrong.

Ahem...

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

I don't care about any other groups of 5. I think looking at the group of folks who haven't voted for either of then 2 lynch victims is a good place to start looking for someone on the dark side. After that, it's just using my judgement to find the one I want to vote for.

The reason why I went this way is because looking at the folks who haven't voted for a lynchee narrows down the field quite a bit.

Yes, but there are a lot of ways you could narrow the field. You could look at the first five people to vote for Rum (which is what I'm doing right now). You could look at the first five people to vote for Lathum. You could pick 5 names out of a hat. All of these would "narrow the field". Why this way? Why is it a good place to start looking? Not that I disagree with your choice of groups, by the way.

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

Ahem...

Yeah, I was surprised when you turned up Umbrella. At least I was right about you not being on my side.

I nailed barkeep and hoops in the Tombstone game. I nailed Glen, path and Chief in the RE game. And I nailed LSG in the Football game. In my other 2 games, I didn't do much to help my side win. I was still getting my feet wet.

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Yes, but there are a lot of ways you could narrow the field. You could look at the first five people to vote for Rum (which is what I'm doing right now). You could look at the first five people to vote for Lathum. You could pick 5 names out of a hat. All of these would "narrow the field". Why this way? Why is it a good place to start looking? Not that I disagree with your choice of groups, by the way.

It seems like the most logical place to look to me. With the need for so many votes to get a lynch, I feel this is the best place to start looking and the easiest way to find someone. Then, once the right person is found, the others will follow suit.

[DaddyTorgo]

i'm gonna hafta vote in the next hour and a half and then be gone until lynch and my head is spinning from all the options right now

[Sublime 2]

This is more of a place-holder vote than anything. I have class 230-4, and am possibly going to the Celtics game tonight. I still should be back here in plenty of time to change the vote, but just in case, and based primarily off of a pretty weak suspicion, but a suspicion none the less:

Vote Tyrith

[DaddyTorgo]

CNN calls MT for Tester with a 3k vote lead...1500 votes are all that's left to count

[DaddyTorgo]

whoops sorry. wrong tab guys

[DaddyTorgo]

aaargh i really have no good handle on who to vote for...and i want to decide in the next...hour and a half.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Actually I would look more at those who voted for Chief Rum near the end of voting. My reasoning here is that if Lathum is evil, (which I don't think he is), there are likely some evil votes on Chief Rum at the end of his votes. Because they were trying to protect Lathum since the voting was beginning to get close. But not knowing if Lathum is evil or not kinda makes it a moot point.

There's a lot of competing noise from the people who piled onto Chief Rum to make sure we had a lynch, unfortunately.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

It seems like the most logical place to look to me. With the need for so many votes to get a lynch, I feel this is the best place to start looking and the easiest way to find someone. Then, once the right person is found, the others will follow suit.

But why is it the most logical place? You keep saying it's the best place to start, but why? What's the next level of thought here? That's the question I've been aiming at.

[Lorena]

I'm looking at voting records right now and sorted my filter to everyone that voted for Chief Rum (known good) and threw away a vote on Day 1 (someone other than scoobz who turned out bad). Scoobz (if my count is correct) had 15 votes at the end of the day, so I have doubts that a wolf would cast a vote on scoobz knowing it could be close (unless of course they were willing to sacrifice one of their own).

Mr. Wednesday, Schmidty, Spleen, and Thomkal meet the criteria. Mr. W and Spleen voted for Neuqua (spleen kept his vote) and Mr. W ended up voting for spleen, someone who wasn't in the running.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

I'm looking at voting records right now and sorted my filter to everyone that voted for Chief Rum (known good) and threw away a vote on Day 1 (someone other than scoobz who turned out bad). Scoobz (if my count is correct) had 15 votes at the end of the day, so I have doubts that a wolf would cast a vote on scoobz knowing it could be close (unless of course they were willing to sacrifice one of their own).

Mr. Wednesday, Schmidty, Spleen, and Thomkal meet the criteria. Mr. W and Spleen voted for Neuqua (spleen kept his vote) and Mr. W ended up voting for spleen, someone who wasn't in the running.

but don't forget that we're up against multiple "packs" of "wolves"

[Lorena]

Whoops, hit the submit button without finishing my thought.

3 out of the 4 people are pretty UTR which also makes me suspect them. Could they be some hiding amonst the CR votes? Maybe.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Grammaticus

Okay, I think the following are subtle reasons, but they add up to me keeping Lathum in my likely good column. I think lynching him is a wasted lynch and will kill a good guy.

· Lathum indicated he thought Blade was of no harm to the village. At this point in the game, I get the same feeling
· He points out Tyrith’s swap from Lathum to Swaggs as odd. That was weird and I thought so too, again good vibe.
· Suggests evaluating some of the people who are not voting for CR or Lathum, I agree that is not a bad idea
· He points out having a close race is beneficial to see who moves, etc. Sound good guy logic
· If he were on the dark side, I do not think he would say he thought there was a failed conversion. Supports being good, but still possibly knowing more. Actually I think the old man is just telling a story about tombstone. Sometimes it is hard to get a recent game out of your head
· Asks st.cronin about his odd post about saldana and CR, which st.cronin has not answered, although it has been asked by Lathum, Blade and myself
· His posts support that we need to lynch in order to win and consolidating votes on a few candidates is a good strategy – very pro villager
· Indicates we should swing votes to 2 or 3 candidates to get more than 2 or 3 votes on one person. 2 or 3 votes is not enough heat to matter

I can understand some of those reasons, but I also want to point out that bad guys need lynches too. No lynch is, usually, worse for the bad guys than it is for the village.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by Alan T

1) Both Chief and Lathum are good, and people who are in Saruman or Sauron's forces know these two aren't on their side at least. How would they have acted yesterday?

I would expect them to vote in the middle of the day, probably scattering their vote. It keeps them involved in things, but avoids drawing unwanted attention for actually casting a deciding vote for a good guy.

2) Chief is good, Lathum is bad, how would the people on Lathum's side in this scenerio have acted yesterday?

I think the middle-of-the-day vote on Chief Rum makes the most sense here. Possibly one would have tried to hide a vote on Lathum as proof against a future reveal (in fact, this can work both ways) -- in this case, a close inspection of voting trends may be in order to determine whether such a vote would have felt a need to switch to CR to save Lathum.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

I'm looking at voting records right now and sorted my filter to everyone that voted for Chief Rum (known good) and threw away a vote on Day 1 (someone other than scoobz who turned out bad). Scoobz (if my count is correct) had 15 votes at the end of the day, so I have doubts that a wolf would cast a vote on scoobz knowing it could be close (unless of course they were willing to sacrifice one of their own).

Mr. Wednesday, Schmidty, Spleen, and Thomkal meet the criteria. Mr. W and Spleen voted for Neuqua (spleen kept his vote) and Mr. W ended up voting for spleen, someone who wasn't in the running.

They might have cast a vote earlier on the day on the assumption that the vote would be closer than it was. It is much better for a wolf trying to have a good voting record to get the vote in early, rather that being a piler on at the end, so they might have done that and been forced to stick with it -- or more likely more votes for scoobz would have filled up the gap. I would have voted for him if I were here, for instance.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

...Mr. W ended up voting for spleen, someone who wasn't in the running.

Look again, he was the closest we had to an alternative candidate. I was trying to fuel a two-horse race so that we could get more out of the vote.

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

but don't forget that we're up against multiple "packs" of "wolves"

Oh yeah, totally. It was something that stood out. I mean for all I know they're all evil; it's hard to differentiate who is with who right now.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Dola, you'll probably have to look at during-the-day totals on day 1, because by the end most everyone had switched off spleen onto scoobz.

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

But why is it the most logical place? You keep saying it's the best place to start, but why? What's the next level of thought here? That's the question I've been aiming at.

It is most logical because of my judgement and the value I place on it , I guess.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I can understand some of those reasons, but I also want to point out that bad guys need lynches too. No lynch is, usually, worse for the bad guys than it is for the village.

This is true, because the village has a lot of warm bodies they have to burn through, they need to start torching people.

However, I've been thinking about this whole thing today. A lot of this isn't really relevant for this game anymore, but I'm putting it out there. The problem with the first two days is that we do need to be able to put pressure on people, to get them talking...we just don't need them dead at the end of the day. I don't know how to get around this problem.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

It is most logical because of my judgement and the value I place on it , I guess.

What is the judgement and value? I really am being tacky on the logic here, feel free to stop responding whenever...if you dare...

[st.cronin]

I'm glad to see more productive discussion today, at least. It seems chaotic right now, but this will be much more productive than "I'm voting for the guy with the most votes to make sure we get a lynch."

[Alan T]

I've sat here most of the day trying to figure out where I would go with a vote. I have more people I suspect than fingers and need to narrow it down.

Out of curiosity, who does everyone think so far has been the most over the radar while producing the least meaningful discussion? Ie: Who has been creating a bunch of white noise that really leads us nowhere?

[Izulde]

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

I'm looking at voting records right now and sorted my filter to everyone that voted for Chief Rum (known good) and threw away a vote on Day 1 (someone other than scoobz who turned out bad). Scoobz (if my count is correct) had 15 votes at the end of the day, so I have doubts that a wolf would cast a vote on scoobz knowing it could be close (unless of course they were willing to sacrifice one of their own).

Mr. Wednesday, Schmidty, Spleen, and Thomkal meet the criteria. Mr. W and Spleen voted for Neuqua (spleen kept his vote) and Mr. W ended up voting for spleen, someone who wasn't in the running.

So by this post, spleen and Mr. W could be Darks from the same faction trying to disorient by voting for one another?

[Lorena]

Whoops, upon closer inspection, Thomkal voted for Scoobz, my bad.

Originally Posted by Tyrith

They might have cast a vote earlier on the day on the assumption that the vote would be closer than it was. It is much better for a wolf trying to have a good voting record to get the vote in early, rather that being a piler on at the end, so they might have done that and been forced to stick with it -- or more likely more votes for scoobz would have filled up the gap. I would have voted for him if I were here, for instance.

The first vote of the day was post #126 and the last vote was post #388. Mr. Wednesday's vote was #341 (which was closer towards the end), Schmidty's vote was #301, and spleen was #180.

I dunno, I see it more as they were throwing their vote onto someone they figured was on the side of the light instead of voting for a fellow baddie.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

I'm looking at voting records right now and sorted my filter to everyone that voted for Chief Rum (known good) and threw away a vote on Day 1 (someone other than scoobz who turned out bad). Scoobz (if my count is correct) had 15 votes at the end of the day, so I have doubts that a wolf would cast a vote on scoobz knowing it could be close (unless of course they were willing to sacrifice one of their own).

Please remember the high likelihood that none of the bad guys actually realized Scoobz's role.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

I'm looking at voting records right now and sorted my filter to everyone that voted for Chief Rum (known good) and threw away a vote on Day 1 (someone other than scoobz who turned out bad). Scoobz (if my count is correct) had 15 votes at the end of the day, so I have doubts that a wolf would cast a vote on scoobz knowing it could be close (unless of course they were willing to sacrifice one of their own).

Mr. Wednesday, Schmidty, Spleen, and Thomkal meet the criteria. Mr. W and Spleen voted for Neuqua (spleen kept his vote) and Mr. W ended up voting for spleen, someone who wasn't in the running.

If you and AlanT lead a charge to lynch me and succeed, you will look terrible, and my fellow citizens of Bree will be much, much weaker.

As far as my voting record, I don't think it's fair to pick on my day 1 vote, since everyone was randomly voting because of the normal day 1 lack of evidence. The only thing that you have to go on is 1 vote - Chief Rum. So saying that my "voting history" is bad, is an overstatement. I wasn't the first one to vote for him, and really had nothing else to go on, so I voted for him. Obviously, it was a mistake, but to say that it's truly incriminating is silly.

I know that although we don't have a lot to go on at this point, and that voting for me seems as good as voting for anyone else, I reiterate that you would be making a big mistake (unless you are bad yourself).

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by Izulde

So by this post, spleen and Mr. W could be Darks from the same faction trying to disorient by voting for one another?

Could be, I mean it's not unheard of where fellow baddies vote for each other to take one for the team. Besides, neither of them had any heat so it's easy to disguise their vote.

[Mr. Wednesday]

I voted for Spleen at a point where it wasn't particularly close, because I felt a runaway onto a good guy would be completely useless to us. In fact, it turned out to not be a runaway onto a good guy, but I still think it was close to useless for voting record reasons because I think it's highly likely that the other bad guys weren't aware of Scoobz's role, or rather, that he was the one who held it.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I've sat here most of the day trying to figure out where I would go with a vote. I have more people I suspect than fingers and need to narrow it down.

Out of curiosity, who does everyone think so far has been the most over the radar while producing the least meaningful discussion? Ie: Who has been creating a bunch of white noise that really leads us nowhere?

I was thinking about that exact question last night, and I'm not sure. Probably Blade, at least in some ways.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Out of curiosity, who does everyone think so far has been the most over the radar while producing the least meaningful discussion? Ie: Who has been creating a bunch of white noise that really leads us nowhere?

After last game, I find it ironic that you ask this question.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I've sat here most of the day trying to figure out where I would go with a vote. I have more people I suspect than fingers and need to narrow it down.

Out of curiosity, who does everyone think so far has been the most over the radar while producing the least meaningful discussion? Ie: Who has been creating a bunch of white noise that really leads us nowhere?

Ooh, ooh, me me me! If this was designed to get people to turn against me you're probably going to do a good job.

That said, time to look at the post count:

Alan - 110 - I think you've been doing a pretty decent job with discussion, seeing that yesterday once the ball was rolling you really couldn't do that much about it. I'll be interested to hear what you have to say later today.
Tyrith - 100 - Already mentioned.
Blade - 81 - Yeah, he was okay yesterday, although that entire mess was more aggrevating than anything else.
SnDvls - 68 - Wow, I didn't realize he had this many posts. Well, he's splattered now, so it doesn't matter.

Then there is a giant mess starting with Daddy at 55 that includes a bunch of people I don't remember making any huge leaps and Lathum. In general so far we haven't had that many great ideas tossed out there; I suspect I'd have a much better answer for this question tomorrow. Right now I can't give much beyond myself.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

If you and AlanT lead a charge to lynch me and succeed, you will look terrible, and my fellow citizens of Bree will be much, much weaker.

As far as my voting record, I don't think it's fair to pick on my day 1 vote, since everyone was randomly voting because of the normal day 1 lack of evidence. The only thing that you have to go on is 1 vote - Chief Rum. So saying that my "voting history" is bad, is an overstatement. I wasn't the first one to vote for him, and really had nothing else to go on, so I voted for him. Obviously, it was a mistake, but to say that it's truly incriminating is silly.

I know that although we don't have a lot to go on at this point, and that voting for me seems as good as voting for anyone else, I reiterate that you would be making a big mistake (unless you are bad yourself).

Why am I getting brought into this Schmidty? Just for making an observation that it seemed weird that you made such a claim after just one person put a vote on you? Just because I was curious why people voted for Lathum early on yesterday instead of you when you provided less of a reason for the same vote as Lathum?

I don't really think those questions are pushes, but more legit things to be asked. So far I haven't said one thing that I think people should vote you or I would vote you. But if you want me to I can start. Is that your goal?

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Sublime 2

On Tyrith

I did notice that while we were making the two horse race, he backed off of Lathum to vote for Swaggs. I haven't gone back to check if there was a reason or not, but at first glance it looked fishy.

Originally Posted by Tyrith

The way Lathum took my arguments makes me think he's bad, or he's playing sloppy like he accused me of. He's still very high on my watch list...that said, the way Swaggs is playing now is making me even more suspicious, and since Lathum isn't gonna get lynched tonight I'm switching.

UNVOTE LATHUM
VOTE SWAGGS

I mentioned at the time that I thought this was a very odd move by Tyrith as Lathum was still in the running for lynch and there was plenty of time for votes to shift. If Tyrith really thought Lathum was bad, why move his vote to someone who had NO CHANCE to get lynched?

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

Whoops, upon closer inspection, Thomkal voted for Scoobz, my bad.



The first vote of the day was post #126 and the last vote was post #388. Mr. Wednesday's vote was #341 (which was closer towards the end), Schmidty's vote was #301, and spleen was #180.

I dunno, I see it more as they were throwing their vote onto someone they figured was on the side of the light instead of voting for a fellow baddie.

Yeah, at this point I still find it likely that the other bad guys didn't know about scoobz. Anxiety said he asked a question about his role...could it have been asking about his allegiance? It would be a question I might ask in that situation, talking about PM rights or something.

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

Please remember the high likelihood that none of the bad guys actually realized Scoobz's role.

I'm sure there are members of the other evil side with votes in there, not knowing who he was.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Ooh, ooh, me me me! If this was designed to get people to turn against me you're probably going to do a good job.

That said, time to look at the post count:

Alan - 110 - I think you've been doing a pretty decent job with discussion, seeing that yesterday once the ball was rolling you really couldn't do that much about it. I'll be interested to hear what you have to say later today.
Tyrith - 100 - Already mentioned.
Blade - 81 - Yeah, he was okay yesterday, although that entire mess was more aggrevating than anything else.
SnDvls - 68 - Wow, I didn't realize he had this many posts. Well, he's splattered now, so it doesn't matter.

Then there is a giant mess starting with Daddy at 55 that includes a bunch of people I don't remember making any huge leaps and Lathum. In general so far we haven't had that many great ideas tossed out there; I suspect I'd have a much better answer for this question tomorrow. Right now I can't give much beyond myself.

Everyone is so defensive over my question asking today. Have I even said anything about voting for you yet today? The only question I can remember asking you was in regards to why Lathum over Schmidty.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Why am I getting brought into this Schmidty? Just for making an observation that it seemed weird that you made such a claim after just one person put a vote on you? Just because I was curious why people voted for Lathum early on yesterday instead of you when you provided less of a reason for the same vote as Lathum?

I don't really think those questions are pushes, but more legit things to be asked. So far I haven't said one thing that I think people should vote you or I would vote you. But if you want me to I can start. Is that your goal?

You haven't played with me much Alan. Everyone knows I always panic easily, and am generally the most defensive player in the game. Always.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Izulde and JE both throw out early votes on people of their choice with their reasonings. I guess I would be curious if either of these two still feel the same way about their votes and if not, why?

My early vote yesterday against DaddyTorgo was just a hunch I had from day 1. I found his needing to be swayed to vote for Scoobz a bit odd, but his explanation for his actions changed my mind. I don't hold him high on my suspect list now.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

You haven't played with me much Alan. Everyone knows I always panic easily, and am generally the most defensive player in the game. Always.

I'm not sure this is a fair statement. I think this is my 5th - 7th game with you. I'm well aware of it, but even if you get super defensive I am curious to why you lumped me in with Dodgerchick just for asking questions of you. I notice instead of answering my question you changed subjects instead and made a sideshow of it.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

You haven't played with me much Alan. Everyone knows I always panic easily, and am generally the most defensive player in the game. Always.

Not only that - I am the acknowledged worst WW player ever. I'm too emotional.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by KWhit

I mentioned at the time that I thought this was a very odd move by Tyrith as Lathum was still in the running for lynch and there was plenty of time for votes to shift. If Tyrith really thought Lathum was bad, why move his vote to someone who had NO CHANCE to get lynched?

Well, to start with, in this game it is very rare that you straight "think" someone is bad. Usually it is about probabilities -- "I think there's a bigger chance X is bad than Y". And yes, I thought it was more likely than average that Lathum was bad. However, at that poitn I also thought Lathum had very little chance of being lynched, considering the momentum of the situation. Instead I decided to shine a light on a topic that is a bit of a sore one for me, day 1 voting records (mostly meaningless! ) Attempting to stir up more talk, which it did even if not in the way I would have preferred. I could have just left it on Lathum and let the vote die, but what's the point of that? There's no way me moving the vote works as a wolf hiding his vote because we're still talking about the vote right now.

This goes back to last game, where the wolves are usually better off letting their votes die on people that won't get lynched than moving them. The wolves aren't going to be the people stirring up a mess unless they're ultra brave and think they can duck the pressure, and that they'll be right. We still don't put enough pressure on the UTRs while we always focus on the people that talk.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I'm not sure this is a fair statement. I think this is my 5th - 7th game with you. I'm well aware of it, but even if you get super defensive I am curious to why you lumped me in with Dodgerchick just for asking questions of you. I notice instead of answering my question you changed subjects instead and made a sideshow of it.

Actually looking back, this is my 10th game with you.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Everyone is so defensive over my question asking today. Have I even said anything about voting for you yet today? The only question I can remember asking you was in regards to why Lathum over Schmidty.

I wasn't implying that you were attacking me, only that it would be a pretty good way to imply my guilt without having to say it if you were being that creative Most of the rest of it was my riding myself for playing like such a donkey this game.

[Izulde]

Okay so my own new list is:

LonestarGirl
Blade
Mr. Wednesday
spleen

LSG is still my strongest suspicion based on the way she's acting, hence she still has my vote.

[spleen1015]

Just so that everyone knows this before they jump to a bunch of conclusions, I was out Monday night when the switch to lynch Scoobz happened. I was out bowling from 7:30~10. So, I wasn't around to change my vote.