Werewolf LXXVI - The Werewolf Draft! Game over, see last pages for details

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Mrs. Schmidty

Was this for me by the way? I saw the post but wasn't sure. If it is and your refering to my vote on DT, I couldn't vote for Lathum at the time if he really is the seer, just didn't seem right.

No, it was referring to a post DT made where he accused olie of getting some argument started on him -- it turned out he meant LSG.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by oliegirl

I'm pretty sure that was Pass getting onto DT for calling me out when I didn't have a vote on him. That comment from DT is what caused me to unvote you, and vote hoops in error, so then I voted DT...in the meantime he'd realized that he got me and LSG mixed up...

Yes, it was a bit of a confusing day

Why did you vote DT after the situation was cleared up, anyway?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Mrs. Schmidty

haha you noticed this too? After having such a good first game I feel a bit of pressure to perform well again. There seems to be a lot of emotion and it makes me heistant to be so vocal! There's a TON to read through too which makes it hard to read through the BS.

I was already thinking it was a full moon based on some questionable calls in my flag football game yesterday -- the way this game has gone down has me thinking it even more.

[Passacaglia]

Full moon was June 18. Good to know -- I never bought into that superstition, anyway.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I already said a few times that I didn't like how or when you revealed, and I also don't like the way DT has played his reveal.. and right now both feel somewhat fake to me.

I am guessing Alan explains this later (I haven't even reached deadline yet on my reading), but this is just weird.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

I can't get past the accidental vote for hoops. I know it was explained off as a mistake but it just seems to be too coincidental because of hoops' initial role in this game.


vote oliegirl

I don't get how voting for hoops makes her more wolfish.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Mrs. Schmidty

haha you noticed this too? After having such a good first game I feel a bit of pressure to perform well again. There seems to be a lot of emotion and it makes me heistant to be so vocal! There's a TON to read through too which makes it hard to read through the BS.

probably my fault

[oliegirl]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Why did you vote DT after the situation was cleared up, anyway?

Because even though he cleared it up, it was still exactly like what happened with AlanT and I in the last game...and kind of like EF's train of though with me, I figured one possibility might be discussing one or both of us in PM's between wolves. When it comes down to it, a slip is a slip...I realize I made one, and I know it was innocent, but I also know it casts doubt on my role.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by oliegirl

Because even though he cleared it up, it was still exactly like what happened with AlanT and I in the last game...and kind of like EF's train of though with me, I figured one possibility might be discussing one or both of us in PM's between wolves. When it comes down to it, a slip is a slip...I realize I made one, and I know it was innocent, but I also know it casts doubt on my role.

Okay. I take back my questioning of EagleFan -- a slip is a slip.

[oliegirl]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Okay. I take back my questioning of EagleFan -- a slip is a slip.

Well...I don't get his reasoning that b/c I voted for Hoops it makes me more wolfy...I just see where he is coming from on reading into the slip in the first place. Does that make sense??? Either way, feel free to continue to question EF and defend me

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by oliegirl

Well...I don't get his reasoning that b/c I voted for Hoops it makes me more wolfy...I just see where he is coming from on reading into the slip in the first place. Does that make sense??? Either way, feel free to continue to question EF and defend me

Too late, it's taken back. You got what's coming to you for leaving your vote on DT!

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

I saw the hint, didnt connect it to the reveal, but man that awful song got stuck in my head

Wait, you actually read that hint enough at the time for the song to get going in your head, and you didn't catch the BG hint? The hint itself was hard to get--I certainly missed it. But if I actually caught it like you're saying you did, I'm not sure how I would miss that.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by saldana

not buying that reveal at all from DT....what are the odds out of 21 players that the 2 we pick to be our lynch candidates both have roles.

Based on the rule set, 38% if we count wolves. 28% if we don't.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

The result of this vote is: NO LYNCH! Alan T persuades the mob not to lynch anybody today!

I will be sending out pms, then will start Day 2 with the night results.

A no lynch is much better than lynching the BG, assuming DT is telling the truth. That said, really disappointed to get to the end of such a long day, and we don't even have a lynch or anything on which to base our voting analysis. Now we will need another day to try to get some value out of this. Delays like this only help the wolves.

But if we saved the BG, then I'm a little annoyed at DT for not coming out sooner. What's up with the weird reveal times (first Lathum, now DT).

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by oliegirl

Well...I don't get his reasoning that b/c I voted for Hoops it makes me more wolfy...I just see where he is coming from on reading into the slip in the first place. Does that make sense??? Either way, feel free to continue to question EF and defend me

It's not the act of voting hoops, its the possibility that the slip was caused by mixing up PM's. I know I made that mistake once and luckily it didn't get called out (I made a reference to something that was said which after I hit submit it hit me that what weas said happened to be in PM's between myself and wolfy team-mate from that game and not within the thread). Luckily that mistake didn't get noticed but it made me watch for those things a bit more closely in others' posts.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by mccollins

I deduced this on day 1:


So I'm curious why you didn't reveal a bit earlier so that DaddyTorgo wouldn't have to reveal as the bodyguard??

I mean you're obviously the duke, but wouldn't the better play for the village be for DaddyTorgo to not have to officially reveal?

That's a good point. I mean, I buy Alan's reveal, of course. He pretty much proved it. But this was just one more in a CF of Day One reveals.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I think everyone is quietly cursing me under their breath right now or something.

Let's try to be productive with how we take the information from day 1.. I would like to hear people's thoughts on the various possible scenerios...

1) If both DT and Lathum were villagers and being honest with their reveals.. what action would a wolf take? Would they have committed strongly anywhere (to try to kill off a possible seer or possible BG while it looked like they could have a realistic chance), or would they have blended in somewhere? If either of these scenerios, who do you target from the day 1 votes to possibly have been the wolves doing such?

2) If DT is a wolf, who do you think moved to try to either save him, or jump on the pile once it looked like he was dead?

3) If Lathum is a wolf, who do you think moved to try to save him or push people in a different direction?

I think going after Lathum and DT today would be a mistake.. so lets look at who might be the best targets for today instead.

1) Wolves never commit strongly anywhere on Day One unless there's an absolute runaway. I think we can be fairly confident they were spread out. As I usually say, I would look at people who were quieter or dropped a vote with not much explanation later in the voting period. Under your scenario, both Lathum and DT are villagers, so the wolves wouldn't care as much about where their vote is as they would trying to not draw attention to themselves. You know, get out of the way of the villagers and let them kill each other.

2) DT was never ahead enough, IMO, for a pile on, and if wolves moved to save him, they didn't do a very good job. I think it more likely that if he is a wolf, they were surprised by the direction the vote took and decided it would be too risky to switch. IMO, the only likely wolves on a DT list would be the first or second votes or around there, when he wasn't in danger, and they thought it was a safe place to stash a "wolf" vote.

3) This could have more legs, as certainly DT was developed as an alternate candidate with respect to Lathum. But we have a natural tendency to do that, as someone (Telle?) noted yesterday.

I'm not sure we should be excluding anyone from being vote targets just yet.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

3) This could have more legs, as certainly DT was developed as an alternate candidate with respect to Lathum. But we have a natural tendency to do that, as someone (Telle?) noted yesterday.

.

what;s this mean exactly?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Telle's vote really stood out to me. post 650

When she voted it was 6-5 in favor of me, her vote made it 7-5, forcing 3 people to swing.

But your analysis of her now puts her in the same murky water as you. If you're the fake seer, we get nothing from your scan. But if on the off chance you are the real seer, you have just cleared someone and now are looking to lynch that cleared person. Basically, we don't know anything about Telle until we know something more about you. And I think you have already given us all the information you have--in other words, we're going to need someone else's intervention to determine if you are the fake or real seer.

Frankly, I would much more like a concrete vote, and I think you're muddying the waters here (unintentionally). But then if I were the revealed seer, I would have scanned the most suspicious person on my list and said what I was told as well...

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Lathum

what;s this mean exactly?

Meaning it makes sense that if you're a wolf (don't jump me; I'm just rolling with Alan's hypothetical), there might have been a movement to save you hidden in the votes on DT.

I don't think you're a wolf, so it doesn't much matter to me, but I decided to respond to Alan within the framework he set up.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Lathum

FWIW I don't believe DT's reveal

Hmm, then why don't you mention him among players you mistrust? Or do you think he's hiding another role? I don't see why he would do that.

[DaddyTorgo]

why is LSG still pushing people to vote for me?? very eagerly too...?

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by saldana

dola, so you really only had a handful of people to help you

Actually:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 14 (14 members and 0 guests)
Passacaglia, Alan T, Barkeep49, DaddyTorgo, Danny, GoldenEagle, KWhit, Lathum, mccollins, PackerFanatic, Poli, saldana, st.cronin, Telle

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Add clap to that list.

That's 13 of 15 viewers who were players in the game and in the thread in the 10 minutes before deadline.

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

FEISTY!!!

She must've had a hot tamale for dinner while catching up on posts!

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

And I really hated Chief's vote on saldana so late. I might vote for him before I go to bed tonight if nothing comes up

So late? It was last night and he was at work like always, right?

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Much more productive to try to figure out where we want to go with the vote today then that rehashing of something that can't and won't be undone.

Exactly - we are where we are and we just need to figure out how we'd like to proceed.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

And I really hated Chief's vote on saldana so late.

Curious, but why? Only Lathum was a good candidate at that point, and I didn't think he was a wolf. Plus, not sure late is a good term, considering I voted more than 12 hours before deadline.

Heck, I would still argue right now that it is far more likely my vote went on a wolf than the vast majority of the village.

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by saldana

really..you think saying "i am the bodyguard" with nothing to back it up is enough to get 3 out of 5 people to change their minds?

5 people? Why do you keep misrepresenting the number of people in the thread?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

Should we look at the players who only got 1 vote?

Mrs. Schmidty
EagleFan
Saldana

Those who voted for them:

EagleFan
Chief Rum
Schmidty

I would bet a pretty penny that of those 5 players, at least one is a wolf.

Just at random, there is only a 1 in 4 chance that none of these players are wolves or the cultist. I'm not really sure you're telling us much here.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

Can we get clarification on this because on the intro post it says

"Only the cunning wolf can kill any player - all other wolves may only kill a player who has voted for them at some point in the game. This only includes votes tabulated at the deadline. The wolves may kill 1 player per night."

Huh...good catch if that is correct. That would have been a critical error if what we have been assuming so far is wrong. It actually makes me wonder if maybe the misinformation was pushed on us by a wolf in the hopes that we would run with it. In the last game (where I was a wolf), we "allowed' the impression that everyone had forgotten an early vote I had placed in hopes of getting a tie. So it wouldn't be the first time this sort of mind game was used.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

Well, there is 5 total players there.

To expand on my analysis, EagleFan was involved in 2 of the 6 votes. Perhaps EagleFan would be a good starting point to discuss as a potential lynch target?

While I questioned your post on this, I will say I didn't get a good vibe off of EF's hit and run vote yesterday. It's exactly the type of vote I was talking about above in responding to Alan's "Lathum and DT are both villagers" hypothesis.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

Upon further though, I probably need to clarify my line of thinking a bit more. If a wolf tacked on a vote to a single person, it would not make much sense if they were both wolves, because then there would be no reason to kill each other.

But perhaps a wolf used a ploy to get someone to vote for him. Maybe Mrs. Schmidty told EagleFan that if he voted for her, Schmidty would vote for EagleFan. Thus now EagleFan can kill Schmidty and the wolves can use that whenever they need to.

Schmidty, you have been played.

I have to admit, this is interesting coming from someone who also happens to currently be playing with his significant other.

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

why is LSG still pushing people to vote for me?? very eagerly too...?

That threw me off too.

Similar to me not voting Lathum on day 1 due to a decent reveal that I give the benefit of the doubt, I probably won't vote for either of you on day 2 until we can sort out more about your roles and possibly verify them somehow.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Lathum

in Passs' defense I think that rule was altered late

Can we get a clarification on this, cronin? (I mean, if it was originally in the rules or changed sometime later). If people were trying to use misinformation, the timing of this change would, of course, have a lot of bearing.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Huh...good catch if that is correct. That would have been a critical error if what we have been assuming so far is wrong. It actually makes me wonder if maybe the misinformation was pushed on us by a wolf in the hopes that we would run with it. In the last game (where I was a wolf), we "allowed' the impression that everyone had forgotten an early vote I had placed in hopes of getting a tie. So it wouldn't be the first time this sort of mind game was used.

Just curious, what is the misinformation that you felt was pushed earlier and who pushed it in regards to this? There is a bit of information that I felt a few people have been pushing that I don't agree with that I have been watching, but I'm not following on this one. I thought everyone was pretty clear on how the wolf kill mechanic worked based on the clarification questions I asked Cronin in thread early on in the game...

Of course I guess if everyone is not clear on them, that might explain why LSG and BK gave me a hard time for my day 1 final vote... since it seemed obvious to myself what I was doing at least... Of course my natural tendency is to just suspect them for their reactions however.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Mrs. Schmidty

haha sorry, catching up on the posts and this is funny. You know he's not playing, right? I assume you know which makes this funnier.

Poor oliegirl. I tagged her, too.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Cronin, when you say wolves other than the cunning wolf can only night kill someone who has voted for them during the game, do you mean ever voted for at all, or just in the final vote talley?

ie: If I vote for playerA, then unvote and vote for PlayerB later and keep that as my final vote.. Does then either playerA or playerB have the ability to night kill me (assuming they both are wolves and neither are the cunning wolf)? Or only playerB?

Thanks!

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Only votes counted in the final tally will be significant. In your example, only player B or the cunning wolf would be able to kill you.

Is this the stuff that you all are looking for a clarification for? Or am I missing what you all are talking about here?

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Just curious, what is the misinformation that you felt was pushed earlier and who pushed it in regards to this? There is a bit of information that I felt a few people have been pushing that I don't agree with that I have been watching, but I'm not following on this one. I thought everyone was pretty clear on how the wolf kill mechanic worked based on the clarification questions I asked Cronin in thread early on in the game...

Of course I guess if everyone is not clear on them, that might explain why LSG and BK gave me a hard time for my day 1 final vote... since it seemed obvious to myself what I was doing at least... Of course my natural tendency is to just suspect them for their reactions however.

Before this evening, I thought the non-cunning wolves could only night kill a person who had voted for them on that specific day in the final vote tally.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by mccollins

Before this evening, I thought the non-cunning wolves could only night kill a person who had voted for them on that specific day in the final vote tally.

Oh, I'm pretty sure that part of the rule was never changed and was always like that. As you see in my previous quote, I mention a vote from the entire game.. I copied that directly from the rules at the time.. That part wasn't what was changed.

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Is this the stuff that you all are looking for a clarification for? Or am I missing what you all are talking about here?

Even when I read that the first time (and I see how that Q & A can still be interpreted this way), I thought it meant only on that day.

Since it means any point in the game, it is going to be very important to avoid throw away votes.

[Alan T]

Dola, but I could see how that could be a confusing phrasing that led to people's different interpretation of it.. I'm not sure that I feel anyone has been trying to use that to mislead us.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

I have to make a decision tonight but I really don't know who to go for. I was hoping some votes would already be thrown out there. Obviously i dont think there will be much momentum for Lathum... but there is hope for DaddyTorgo. But in the change that people will be unwilling to go after him again I am going to vote for Chief Rum. Not only did Chief have a vote for saldana late in the day, after it was obvious it was Lathum VS DT, but I compared him to DaddyTorgo in skill and respect. If I were hoops I would have picked either Chief, DT or maybe Pass... those three I hold in the same regard.

Vote Chief Rum

I'm not one to normally throw my schedule out there, but everyone knows I am not available during work days. I put my vote out there when it was Lathum distantly in the lead. DT had a vote or two, I am sure, but he was one of about 5 or 6 players to have votes. At the point I voted, it was "believe Lathum or not". I chose to believe him.

Now, as to the rest, I can see myself being put on a shortlist by hoops, I guess, so I can't fault you there. It didn't work out that way, but I'm not going to ding you for thinking that.

Personally, I think you say a lot more than you think, if you consider you mention DT as deserving such consideration (which he does), and he has been at the very least a "person of interest" so far in this one.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

I can't get past the accidental vote for hoops. I know it was explained off as a mistake but it just seems to be too coincidental because of hoops' initial role in this game.


vote oliegirl

Okay, this is a reach.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

It's not the act of voting hoops, its the possibility that the slip was caused by mixing up PM's. I know I made that mistake once and luckily it didn't get called out (I made a reference to something that was said which after I hit submit it hit me that what weas said happened to be in PM's between myself and wolfy team-mate from that game and not within the thread). Luckily that mistake didn't get noticed but it made me watch for those things a bit more closely in others' posts.

Not to bring meta-game reasons into this, BTW, but hoops is not a part of my draft in the OT forum (although he has posted in the thread). I think oliegirl made an innocent mistake, but that explanation of hoops in the OT draft thread doesn't ping my veracity radar too sharply.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

why is LSG still pushing people to vote for me?? very eagerly too...?

What are you worried about? She voted for me.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by mccollins

So late? It was last night and he was at work like always, right?

Ding, ding, ding.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Just curious, what is the misinformation that you felt was pushed earlier and who pushed it in regards to this? There is a bit of information that I felt a few people have been pushing that I don't agree with that I have been watching, but I'm not following on this one. I thought everyone was pretty clear on how the wolf kill mechanic worked based on the clarification questions I asked Cronin in thread early on in the game...

Of course I guess if everyone is not clear on them, that might explain why LSG and BK gave me a hard time for my day 1 final vote... since it seemed obvious to myself what I was doing at least... Of course my natural tendency is to just suspect them for their reactions however.

I am talking about the wolf vote triggers for night killing being for the whole game, not just that night. Meaning you vote for a wolf just once, that wolf can kill you the rest of the game. Until that rule was spelled out in the posts I was responding to, my impression and my perception of everyone else's perception was that that night kill trigger was only good for the following night.

My supposition is that it's possible wolves jumped on this bit of misinformation and tried to push it into mainstream belief here, so that we would start only questioning voters from the previous day, instead of focusing on the game history of votes on that person.

I don't recall your questions specifically clarifying that, and if that impression wasn't out there, there would have been no need for the clarification posts put up just a page or two back. Not saying you were doing something--just trying to respond to your comment about your earlier questions on that.

I didn't get what you were doing either until I saw you were the Duke. Did you need to do that to trigger your action? Usually the Duke just PMs a player in private, rather than having to make an overt move like that, although you did hint at role differences from the standard Duke.

(And if those are best left quiet, well, then just tell me to shut up ).

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Oh, I'm pretty sure that part of the rule was never changed and was always like that. As you see in my previous quote, I mention a vote from the entire game.. I copied that directly from the rules at the time.. That part wasn't what was changed.

Well, I see you did have that right yourself. But I would still argue the general impression was how mccollins had it. That's how I had it, too. And that's why I wondered if maybe someone was running a bit of a misinformation game on us.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I am talking about the wolf vote triggers for night killing being for the whole game, not just that night. Meaning you vote for a wolf just once, that wolf can kill you the rest of the game. Until that rule was spelled out in the posts I was responding to, my impression and my perception of everyone else's perception was that that night kill trigger was only good for the following night.

My supposition is that it's possible wolves jumped on this bit of misinformation and tried to push it into mainstream belief here, so that we would start only questioning voters from the previous day, instead of focusing on the game history of votes on that person.

I don't recall your questions specifically clarifying that, and if that impression wasn't out there, there would have been no need for the clarification posts put up just a page or two back. Not saying you were doing something--just trying to respond to your comment about your earlier questions on that.

I didn't get what you were doing either until I saw you were the Duke. Did you need to do that to trigger your action? Usually the Duke just PMs a player in private, rather than having to make an overt move like that, although you did hint at role differences from the standard Duke.

(And if those are best left quiet, well, then just tell me to shut up ).

No, my power as Duke does not require me to have the vote on someone that I want to duke (or on myself to invalidate the entire lynch) as someone mentioned before. Next time my power can kick in, my vote has nothing to do with it.

I simply moved my vote to myself there because I had decided to no-lynch the day due to all of the reveals and uncertainty of us possibly killing off our own bodyguard or seer. The reason I voted myself was hopefully to allow any spy type role out there the option if they wanted to watch me at times this game if someone tries to kill me right now it would have to be the cunning wolf. No other wolf has the ability to kill me thus far.

I didn't really spell that out up till now as I was trying to be somewhat clever on the chance that they come after me hoping the spy would pick up on it.. since several people have mentioned not having any idea why I did that, I guess I was being too clever for functional purpose.

[Chief Rum]

All right, I need to get a vote in. Unlike yesterday, you guys haven't chosen a candidate yet, fortunately.

I would vote for DT, because I have my doubts, too, but I am skittish about voting for the BG. So he lives another day in my book. And I still believe Lathum--eventually he maybe needs to go so we know what's up, but I don't want to risk a seer lynch right now either.

So I am going with Eaglefan. He did a driveby vote yesterday, and I'm not so willing to buy the possibility he had legit reasons for voting for oliegirl over what I think is just a simple mistake.

VOTE EAGLEFAN