07-30-2007, 12:23 PM | #951 |
College Starter
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Little Rock, AR
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I am going to go ahead and put my vote on Gonzo right now... I have 4 more games left to umpire today and I dont know when I will be back, but I do know it should be before deadline. If something changes between now and then I will come back and change my vote
vote Gonzo |
07-30-2007, 12:28 PM | #952 | |
High School Varsity
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Seattle
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Quote:
Can you explain the heat on Ant other than being quiet? I'm not looking at Gonzo because I can understand his concern. I thought how Alan choose to get the conversation started on his first night action was very suspecious. I do think Gonzo kept his teeth in on Alan for too long, but, just like I thought with Barkeep, I thought there was legitimate reason to look long and hard at Alan. Is there anything else about Gonzo that you think makes him look bad? |
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07-30-2007, 12:30 PM | #953 |
College Starter
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Little Rock, AR
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the one thing that has been bothering me about Gonzo is he is irritating. The things he has said is just really weird to me and I have never played with the guy, so I think he needs to be looked at more thoroughly. There are a couple of posts that just were weird. And it seemed everybody believe Alant was Van Helsing besides Gonzo and I kind of took it as a wolf who didn't want to jump on the Alant bandwagon because he knew the last people to jump on would be analyzed... so he kind of made a scene about not voting for him.
Maybe I am wrong, but that is what I got out of it |
07-30-2007, 12:51 PM | #954 |
Mascot
Join Date: Jul 2007
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07-30-2007, 12:52 PM | #955 | |
Mascot
Join Date: Jul 2007
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Quote:
If I was a wolf, why did I stick with my Alan T vote rather than jumping on Tanglewood to save my packmate Chief Rum? |
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07-30-2007, 01:04 PM | #956 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: New Mexico
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Quote:
I had asked the parties involved to keep the 'incident' out of the thread, but it seems that its too late. Here's what happened: Dodgerchick responded to the group pm titled "important," thinking, based on other information she had, that that pm indicated that she was a wolf. She responded to the following people, thinking they were all wolves: tanglewood, gonzo, neon_chaos. As I told those three, considering the circumstances, it is as plausible to jump to the conclusion that she's a villager as it is to conclude that she's a wolf. I don't believe this situation has affected the game, and I don't believe it will. Nevertheless, DC has asked to be removed from the game, and I'm trying to find a replacement, although I hope she changes her mind. I apologize for the mix-up, it is entirely my fault, not DC's. |
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07-30-2007, 01:26 PM | #957 |
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
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Soooo... now we all just pretend we didn't see that and move on
Current vote count: 1 - RendeR - path12 1 - Antmeister - Neon Chaos 1 - LoneStarGirl - Dodgerchick 1 - Gonzo - LoneStarGirl 1 - Dodgerchick - Gonzo |
07-30-2007, 01:48 PM | #958 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: New Mexico
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Oliegirl is replacing Dodgerchick.
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07-30-2007, 01:49 PM | #959 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: New Mexico
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dola, I'm not counting Dodgerchick's vote. Oliegirl will have to make her own vote.
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07-30-2007, 01:52 PM | #960 |
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
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Welcome Oliegirl.. good luck catching up with 20 pages of posts!
Vote count reflecting personnel changes: 1 - RendeR - path12 1 - Antmeister - Neon Chaos 1 - Gonzo - LoneStarGirl 1 - Oliegirl - Gonzo |
07-30-2007, 01:52 PM | #961 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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Olie! Good to have you back!
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07-30-2007, 01:59 PM | #962 |
High School Varsity
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Seattle
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Updated vote count after Cronin's ruling that DC's vote won't be counted:
1 - RendeR - path12 1 - Antmeister - Neon Chaos 1 - Gonzo - LoneStarGirl |
07-30-2007, 02:00 PM | #963 |
Head Cheerleader
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Caught somewhere between Raising Hell and Amazing Grace...
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Hey guys! Just checking in...if someone wants to help me and give the "reader's digest" version of what has been going on that would be great. I'm going to skim through all 20 pages of posts but any additional info would be awesome.
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07-30-2007, 02:00 PM | #964 |
High School Varsity
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Seattle
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nevermind, I misread the vote count. It's still:
1 - RendeR - path12 1 - Antmeister - Neon Chaos 1 - Gonzo - LoneStarGirl 1 - Oliegirl - Gonzo |
07-30-2007, 02:04 PM | #965 | |
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
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Quote:
Day 1: no lynch, Jonathan Ezarik killed by wolves Day 2: tie between Neon Chaos and Barkeep49 yields no lynch, Lathum killed by wolves Day 3: Alan T reveals he is Van Helsing, lynch Chief Rum - and he's a wolf!, Alan T is killed by wolves |
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07-30-2007, 02:15 PM | #966 |
High School Varsity
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Seattle
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Oliegirl, it's also important to note that we had a lot of utr and absentee voting and opinions due to the weekend. The game started early and a lot of people (unlike myself) have things to do during the weekend
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07-30-2007, 02:38 PM | #967 |
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
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Hmmm.. I have to leave work at 4 and I have no idea if I'll be back before deadline. I was hoping to vote before I leave.. but right now we have four spread out votes and no conversation going on, so that's certainly not helping me make a decision!
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07-30-2007, 02:50 PM | #968 | |||||
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Conyers GA
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I took a little time to compile all of Ant's posts here as I was looking at him for a possible vote candidate. I'm not sure what I think now. He hasn't posted much and been very UTR, but has made a couple of slight references in support of Alan and against Chief Rum, so now I'm not sure... I post this so others can analyze if so inclined, but as of right now I'm still undecided on him.
Post 194: Quote:
Post 397: Quote:
Post 453 (Responding to DaddyTorgo who said "That's an interesting fustercluck there"): Quote:
Post 486 (Responding to Barkeep): Quote:
Post 589: Quote:
Post 897: |
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07-30-2007, 02:52 PM | #969 |
Head Cheerleader
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Caught somewhere between Raising Hell and Amazing Grace...
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I've been catching up, but I have a meeting to get into in the next 10 minutes...I'll be back on later though. I don't feel that I should say anything until I'm done reading through the posts...
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07-30-2007, 02:58 PM | #970 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Early, TX
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I just woke up (I work graveyard at the local newspaper), and about to go eat lunch, but I'll be back in an hour or two to catch up.
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07-30-2007, 03:02 PM | #971 |
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
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Ok, so out of the four candidates currently with votes.. don't want to vote off Oliegirl when she's just started, and looks like the momentum has swung off of RendeR.. so that leaves Antmeister and Gonzo. Not feeling anything definitive on either one of them, so I'll just pick one to make sure I get a vote in..
VOTE GONZO |
07-30-2007, 03:07 PM | #972 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Seattle, WA
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I just went through all RendeR's posts.
UNVOTE RENDER On reflection I don't see what I thought I saw before.
__________________
We have always been at war with Eastasia. |
07-30-2007, 03:14 PM | #973 |
High School Varsity
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Seattle
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I agree the vote seems to be between Gonzo and Ant. To try to get some conversation started I'm going to vote for Ant.
Reading back through Ant's posts, he's made some odd leaps of logic and pushed some weird ideas through. He sided with BK and Alan and they were argueing against each other. Gonzo has been acting odd as well, but for the moment I'm willing to write it off as simply having blinders on for his first instinct. VOTE ANTMEISTER |
07-30-2007, 03:17 PM | #974 |
Head Cheerleader
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Caught somewhere between Raising Hell and Amazing Grace...
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This is actually how I am leaning...after reading through most of the thread, Antmeister seems to be flip flopping alot and some of the things he said I just didn't see the reasoning behind. I'm not officially voting yet, and am certainly open to discussion but this is where I'm at right now.
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07-30-2007, 03:42 PM | #975 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Massachusetts
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i've been following along. my day ended up a lot busier than expected (i just had lunch at 4pm), so i will have some thoughts and vote when i get home.
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07-30-2007, 03:46 PM | #976 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Conyers GA
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VOTE ANTMEISTER
After thinking this through, I think Ant is a better play than Gonzo or Render. I don't have a strong feeling of guilt from anyone else yet either, so for now my vote goes to Ant. |
07-30-2007, 04:18 PM | #977 |
Death Herald
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Le stelle la notte sono grandi e luminose nel cuore profondo del Texas
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I agree that Ant has been strangely quiet. I've seen him lurking in the thread, so it is not like he hasn't been around. Let's try to draw him out.
VOTE ANTMEISTER
__________________
Thinkin' of a master plan 'Cuz ain't nuthin' but sweat inside my hand So I dig into my pocket, all my money is spent So I dig deeper but still comin' up with lint |
07-30-2007, 04:34 PM | #978 |
Head Cheerleader
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Caught somewhere between Raising Hell and Amazing Grace...
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VOTE ANTMEISTER
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07-30-2007, 05:39 PM | #979 |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Oct 2004
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I have it at 7 for Antmeister and 2 for Gonzo. 4 votes in a row for Antmeister and 7 of the last 9.
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07-30-2007, 05:44 PM | #980 |
High School Varsity
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Seattle
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We are no where.
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07-30-2007, 05:45 PM | #981 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Seattle, WA
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Gotta say, I don't get the Antmeister thing at all. I'm sticking with the guy who ensured the no lynch day 2. I don't think Chief's posts about him clear him at all.
VOTE TANGLEWOOD
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We have always been at war with Eastasia. |
07-30-2007, 06:11 PM | #982 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Buffalo, NY
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People are missing my vote for antmeister in post #939
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07-30-2007, 06:13 PM | #983 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Massachusetts
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jeezus. Pile on Ant
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07-30-2007, 06:17 PM | #984 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: New Mexico
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Vote count:
7 - Antmeister - Neon_Chaos (910), RendeR (939), Gonzo (941), JHandley (973), KWhit (976), cartman (977), oliegirl (978) 2 - Gonzo - LoneStarGirl (951), Tele (971) 1 - oliegirl - Gonzo (954) 1 - tanglewood - path12 (981) |
07-30-2007, 06:23 PM | #985 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Buffalo, NY
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it is a bit much, but there are no compelling arguments for anyone really. I followed neon's vote because he did some digging and showed some proactivity. I trust him for the time being because his digging pulled my ass from the noose, so I'll follow his lead for now. I'm open to hearing compelling evidence for others, but nothing has been forthcoming. |
07-30-2007, 06:28 PM | #986 |
High School Varsity
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Seattle
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This should be a lesson for future games. If you don't get a mindless Day 1 lynching, you get a mindless day 4 lynching.
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07-30-2007, 06:32 PM | #987 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Buffalo, NY
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Quote:
day 1, Day 4, Days 2,3,5,6,7,8 etc, whats the difference? |
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07-30-2007, 06:37 PM | #988 |
High School Varsity
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Seattle
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That's what I'm saying. We're just making up for lost time today.
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07-30-2007, 06:42 PM | #989 |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Oct 2004
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Okay, based on the way voting panned out last night I am now working on the assumption that Path12 and Barkeep are both good guys, which for now I think is a reasonable position to take. Chief had little heat on him at the time of the switch, which was suggested by Barkeep, not Alan, and those two along with Alan were the first to move. Daddy Torgo is also partially in the clear as he made the tying vote and moved off me, so he gets credit, though not as much because he didn;t instigate it. Once it was tied, and a given that I would vote for Chief as already stated I would if it could save me so really Chief was already in the lead, votes carry less value, merely making sure there would be no tie. The final two votes, Cartman and Render I would say are almost worthless for voting record purposes, turning a 7-4 into a 9-4.
So if we go back and look at voting with the following scenario: Tanglewood, Lathum, Alan T, Jonathan Ezarik = 100% clear Path12, Barkeep, DaddyTorgo = 80% clear Chief Rum = Bad Then look at the voting charts I see one player who jumps out at me: Cartman. On day he one votes early for Jonathan Ezarik, known human, when the vote was JE 2 / Dodgerchick 1 / Telle 1, to give JE the lead by two clear votes. It is very common on Day 1 for someone to build any kind of voting momentum and be a runaway lynchee, so at the time Cartman put the third vote on JE it was IMHO very likely he would be killed that day. Day two, he votes for Neon Chaos when the votes were Neon 4 / Alan T 2 / Barkeep 2 and a few others on one, placing the fifth vote to give NC the lead by three. We don't know anything about Neon at this stage for sure, but I think he is a likely villager (just on a hunch level, not on the p12, barkeep level). Day three, comes out and votes for Alan T, confirmed goog guy, when the vote is 3-1 in his favour versus Barkeep (cites "voting patterns", presumably the non-barkeep vote at the end of day 2). After Alan's reveal switches to Barkeep, likely good guy, with no explaination. Late in the day he places the 8th vote on Chief rum when he is already 7-4 up with literally minutes to the deadline. Today he placed the sixth vote on Antmeister to put him 6-2 ahead. Cartman has consistently been voting with the majority, only one time not voting for the player in the lead at the time, when he switched of the leader Alan T immediately after the reveal, while offering no real new analysis or suspects. He has also been voting for people who I either believe are clear (Barkeep, Alan T, Jonathan Ezarik) or have no particular reason to suspect (Neon Chaos, Antmeister). It is difficult to read too much into vote patterns at the moment. Usually by day 4 we have two more people dead so more confirmed information about voting records. As it is we have 4 dead players instead of 6 so this is a like a Day 3 lynch on Day 4. So with not much to go on I will for now Vote Cartman |
07-30-2007, 06:43 PM | #990 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: At the corner of Beat Street and Electric Avenue
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Wow! Lots of votes here for me, but let me look back.
__________________
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07-30-2007, 06:49 PM | #991 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Massachusetts
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that sounds compelling to me tangle
VOTE CARTMAN |
07-30-2007, 06:50 PM | #992 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Massachusetts
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and yes. I know that follows the "quote something long and agree" school
but i'm not going to add to the pile on ant, whether or not he's guilty, because i'm good and that just makes me look bad. And tangle's argument for cartman has some weight to it. |
07-30-2007, 07:08 PM | #993 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Early, TX
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Quote:
I agree with this for various reasons, but I don't really feel comfortable voting for anyone with the scant amount of evidence we have today (unlike yesterday), although I know I will have to eventually here. |
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07-30-2007, 07:10 PM | #994 | |
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
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Quote:
You have Gonzo voting for both Antmeister and oliegirl. The vote for oliegirl is the later vote. |
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07-30-2007, 07:22 PM | #995 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Oct 2004
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Times voted for
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07-30-2007, 07:24 PM | #996 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Early, TX
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Quote:
Well, I wouldn't worry about that. I am the first one to admit that I'm not the best WW strategist by any means, so I think posts like tanglewood are a good thing, because they give me something to think about other than my own "feeling" suspicions. I think tangle's post has merit, and would like to hear more discussion about it, so: Vote cartman |
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07-30-2007, 07:27 PM | #997 |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Oct 2004
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Path12 should have one vote in his column too.
Yeah it's not very useful on the surface, but I'm a bit lost right now and am just throwing stuff around in my mind and seeing what fits together. You can spin that list both ways. a) People at the top are more likely to be wolves, as more people have voted for them because they are acting suspiciously. b) People at the bottom are more likely to be wolves, as wolves are less likely to vote for fellow wolves (until they've been outed), so they have a smaller pool of potential players to vote for them. But of course, it could just be useless. |
07-30-2007, 07:31 PM | #998 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Seattle, WA
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Interesting analysis. But how do you square that with Alan seeing player X visit and take something from Cartman night 2?
If he had come up a wolf, whoever viewed him would likely have stated it by now.
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07-30-2007, 07:32 PM | #999 | |||||||
Pro Starter
Join Date: Dec 2003
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Well I will try to defend myself by showing what the apparent werewolf was trying to do to me.
Quote:
Well here is his first vote against me. This made me suspicious because I couldn't understand the reasoning since there were other potentials at the time who could have been wolves. However it was early and I wasn't sure what to think about it. Quote:
If I were a wolf, he wouldn't have a need to expound on my statement. However after looking back at this, I am less likely going with Neon as a wolf since he was going after him hard as you will see below. Quote:
....and in this keep he seemed very concerned about keeping Barkeep alive. So now it make me wonder about Barkeep again, which was one of my earlier votes. Quote:
And I mostly likely looked at that last minute barrage in the wrong way. Once again, Chief Rum is just going after Neon Chaos and excuses himself for voting against me which would have been a deciding vote. Now I am still not 100% sure if this was a ploy, but I am definitely over 60% sure that possibly Neon Chaos is a villager. Quote:
Here he goes after Neon again. Quote:
And here is his excuse for LSG which I still retain has to be in with the wolves. Quote:
Ugh...more protection for Barkeep and although he mentions LSG and the 2nd tiered suspect, she has an excuse again. So right now, after looking back on the posts from Cheif Rum (who has already been identified as a wolf), I will have to say it is either Barkeep or LSG.
__________________
"I'm ready to bury the hatchet, but don't fuck with me" - Schmidty "Box me once, shame on Skydog. Box me twice. Shame on me. Box me 3 times, just fucking ban my ass...." - stevew |
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07-30-2007, 07:32 PM | #1000 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Seattle, WA
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BTW Tangle, even though I'm voting for you now I do appreciate the charts you've done.
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