WW XCI: Office Space, the TPS Edition - GAME OVER - Insiders Win - Page 20

Autumn · 04-08-2009, 09:36 PM

Purdue, Chief didn't change the lynch because we lynched the person he was voting for. That's all.

PurdueBrad · 04-08-2009, 09:37 PM

NM, reread the description, guess it is only able to be used to block a night action. I'm not sure what to make of Autumn pulling this move, although if he's the BG I wonder if this allowed him to make a double-block.

EagleFan · 04-08-2009, 09:38 PM

For the record, there was nothing standing in the way of any action for the day phase today. I threw that in based on the early speculation that a duking would occur, I did not mean to mislead anyone with that.

Any actions that can be publicly known will be. The only minor hints to pick up on may be clues for finding hidden items, such as the rope.

PurdueBrad · 04-08-2009, 09:39 PM

So Autumn, did you pull off a BG block? Is that what you meant when you said you scared off the attack?

Autumn · 04-08-2009, 09:39 PM

I'll make it clear: I assumed that Chief Rum would be unprotected tonight. As the only villager we know of for sure, I felt we needed to keep him alive. The rope would allow me to help him survive an attack. I hoped if I kept it quiet that I was going to use it, the wolves would still attack and we'd block them for a night.

Danny · 04-08-2009, 09:42 PM

I'm confused though, did you ever come out as the BG?

Abe Sargent · 04-08-2009, 09:42 PM

Autumn · 04-08-2009, 09:47 PM

When I said it would be a bad idea to lynch me, it was because it would prevent me from using the rope. I could have transferred it to Chief but that would have been a public action and pretty much tipped the wolves off.

Abe Sargent · 04-08-2009, 09:49 PM

Yeah, I totally don;t buy that

Abe Sargent · 04-08-2009, 09:49 PM

Everyone here knew you were intimating that you were the BG

PurdueBrad · 04-08-2009, 09:49 PM

Then I misread what Autumn said before. BG, do not reveal yourself (obviously).

unvote Autumn

Danny · 04-08-2009, 09:50 PM

I'm not sure what to think, but you seemed happy to let everyone think you were the BG to avoid a lynch and then after everyone says the BG should come out after the night phase you correct that.

Abe Sargent · 04-08-2009, 09:50 PM

I'm going to have to think about this.

Lathum · 04-08-2009, 09:54 PM

This is all predicated on Autumn NOT being the BG...

I'm calling BS on Autumn here.

Lets say Autumn is a wolf. Autumn makes this play and not only buys trust with the village, but keeps the real BG from outing him because now the real BG assumes Autumn was making a smart villager play.

The wolves know Autumn is going to pull this move so they steer clear of CR.

The thing that really hammers it home for me is Clap was killed last night, so logicaly the BG protected CR, the only trusted villager last night. So why would the wolves steer clear of him? IMO it's to establish this level of trust and go for a bigger target, the real BG.

thoughts

Autumn · 04-08-2009, 09:54 PM

I wasn't about to clarify that I was not the BG, but in fact had the rope. Then there would have been no point in even using it, as the wolves could easily piece together what my plan was. I was not vague to save my butt, I was vague so that the wolves would be unsure who to target.

I tried to make it vague so that the wolves would not be clear on what exactly it was i could do. Unfortunately nobody, publicly at least, seemed to consider the possibility of the rope or other possibly unknown abilities. It's not my fault that the only possibilty everyone considered was that I was the bodyguard. I had hoped not to be targeted in the lynch at all and not have to even bring up the rope.

Abe Sargent · 04-08-2009, 09:56 PM

I'd like CR to confirm the rope's powers

Autumn · 04-08-2009, 09:58 PM

I would suggest that those of you feeling extra suspicious consider what you would have done in my situation. Possessing a rope that could save the Duke, but only if the wolves did not know it was going to be used on him, and being targeted in the lynch.

I am quite sure I am a villager, and so it's very interesting to me to see who is eager to chase after me now. It's clear to me that the wolves figured out what I was doing, or at least figured it was better to target someone off the radar and not risk losing a kill. It's doubly a good move for them because now they can claim that makes me look bad.

Lathum · 04-08-2009, 09:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

I'd like CR to confirm the rope's powers

even if he does, it doesn't mean a wolf couldn't have used it to gain trust

lerriuqs · 04-08-2009, 09:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

This is all predicated on Autumn NOT being the BG...

I'm calling BS on Autumn here.

Lets say Autumn is a wolf. Autumn makes this play and not only buys trust with the village, but keeps the real BG from outing him because now the real BG assumes Autumn was making a smart villager play.

The wolves know Autumn is going to pull this move so they steer clear of CR.

The thing that really hammers it home for me is Clap was killed last night, so logicaly the BG protected CR, the only trusted villager last night. So why would the wolves steer clear of him? IMO it's to establish this level of trust and go for a bigger target, the real BG.

thoughts

It could be innocent, but something really feels off on this play...It's an easy way to establish trust without giving anyone up.

Autumn · 04-08-2009, 10:00 PM

Definitely we need a confirm from Chief, who doesn't look like he'll be in for a while. And feel free to bark up my tree, i knew that likely would happen but I thought I might keep Chief alive another night. At this point I'm not sure it will help much to have him, as we're losing villagers quickly and don't have a way to expand the circle of trust.

Lathum · 04-08-2009, 10:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lerriuqs

It could be innocent, but something really feels off on this play...It's an easy way to establish trust without giving anyone up.

do you mean for the wolves to gain trust?

lerriuqs · 04-08-2009, 10:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

do you mean for the wolves to gain trust?

Yes.

Autumn · 04-08-2009, 10:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lerriuqs

It could be innocent, but something really feels off on this play...It's an easy way to establish trust without giving anyone up.

I'm not looking for trust. Obviously nothing short of a scan is going to give trust at this point. I just wanted to try to make a play at saving a villager. I thought we had a good chance of preventing a wolf kill tonight.

If I had wanted trust I would have just said I had the rope and offered to give it to Chief. That would have probably won me more favor than what I did, but it would have pretty much wasted the use of the rope.

Lathum · 04-08-2009, 10:07 PM

here is another thing I don't but.

If I am a wolf, I am assuming Autumn is the bodyguard based on his posts. Now I assume CR was protected last night since Clap wasn't.

So as a wolf why am I going for Jackal?

Why not either

CR who I can safely assume can't be protected again

or

Autumn who says he is the BG so I can at best kill him tonight or at worst get him out of the game for sure by tomorrow night?

Lathum · 04-08-2009, 10:12 PM

dola- I can also see Autumn being Drew hoping the wolves would come after him assuming he IS the BG

Danny · 04-08-2009, 10:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

dola- I can also see Autumn being Drew hoping the wolves would come after him assuming he IS the BG

This I don't think is the case. I believe Autumn is telling the truth with how the rope worked and thus an attack on him would not have resulted in him being converted.

Lathum · 04-08-2009, 10:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

This I don't think is the case. I believe Autumn is telling the truth with how the rope worked and thus an attack on him would not have resulted in him being converted.

fair point.

Either way, put yourself in a wolfs position.

Why Jackal?

Autumn · 04-08-2009, 10:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

fair point.

Either way, put yourself in a wolfs position.

Why Jackal?

Because he was completely unlikely to be guarded.

They were trying to avoid the bodyguard, and probably suspected the use of the rope. Therefore their best bet was to target a villager that was least likely to be protected. That's what I was presuming they would do if they didn't go after Chief and why I had hoped not to out myself at all.

Lathum · 04-08-2009, 10:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn

Because he was completely unlikely to be guarded.

They were trying to avoid the bodyguard, and probably suspected the use of the rope. Therefore their best bet was to target a villager that was least likely to be protected. That's what I was presuming they would do if they didn't go after Chief and why I had hoped not to out myself at all.

not buying it.

As a wolf I am taking a shot at the bodyguard, even if it takes 2 nights. Especialy with no fear of being outed by the seer.

Autumn · 04-08-2009, 10:24 PM

I'm heading off to bed. It was a disappointing day in the office. I look forward to some vote analysis tomorrow. Lathum's obviously going to be barking up my tree but I think we can turn up some other suspects.

Autumn · 04-08-2009, 10:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

not buying it.

As a wolf I am taking a shot at the bodyguard, even if it takes 2 nights. Especialy with no fear of being outed by the seer.

And I don't think the the wolves assumed I was the bodyguard. They obviously read that something was up in what I was up to, and did not ignore the sudden appearance of the rope during the day. Just because nobody talked about it in thread doesn't mean nobody was paying attention.

Autumn · 04-08-2009, 10:28 PM

triple dola

now I'm really off to bed.

Lathum · 04-08-2009, 10:28 PM

I'm sorry, but it all seems a little to neatly wrapped up.

EagleFan · 04-08-2009, 10:30 PM

Heading off to get some sleep. Just got done watching a replay of the ring ceremony. Very nice indeed!!! I'll check in as early as possible tomorrow to see if there are any questions and to add to the story with the daily snippet.

Poli · 04-08-2009, 10:43 PM

This rope thing has me totally confused.

USFLTecmo · 04-08-2009, 11:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

fair point.

Either way, put yourself in a wolfs position.

Why Jackal?

I'm with you, if I'm a wolf, and I sniff out the BG, I'm going after them, because it's unlikely that they're guarding themselves if there's a known public figure like Chief Rum out there to be protected.

It's possible the wolves didn't pick up the same hints that some people saw, but I find that somewhat unlikely.

I'll reserve final judgment on the incident, though, until we hear from Chief Rum himself, if he knew anything about how it all went down.

Chief Rum · 04-09-2009, 01:05 AM

Looks like everyone's been waiting on me.

Okay, this was a weird night. Unfortunately, I don't really have much else to offer. As we headed for the meeting, I felt the rope wrap around me, and saw that Autumn was tied to the other end. I couldn't free myself until after the meeting. Pretty similar to EF's rundown.

As for the lynch, as Autumn and Lathum both surmised (to an extent), I had a conditional order that was only set to trigger in two specific instances: in case of a tie, or in case Autumn got the lynch. The reason for the first is obvious, I am sure, while the second was because I said I would give Autumn that chance. If the conditionals weren't met, I would let the lynch go down as voted. Since cartman got the vote, my conditional wasn't met and my power still has not been used.

My Lord, I must be the longest living, most public Duke ever by now.

Interesting results. Do I owe Autumn for my life? Quite possibly. Or was it a ploy to gain trust, while another wolf went after The Jackal? The logic Lathum has put is correct. clap was not protected last night by the BG. And he was the outed seer, the most powerful villager role in the game. He would clearly have been protected if he could. So that means the BG protected clap on N1. Since the BG could not protect clap, I was the only other logical choice last night, meaning I was unprotected tonight.

So I expected to die tonight, without being able to be protected. So why would the wolves not even attempt to strike at me? I'm by far the only person with trust right now, and I have a power, too. Why wouldn't I be attacked? Maybe if they felt certain they knew who the BG was, that might be it. But that's quite the gut feeling, especially since the BG, unable to protect me, probably protects himself. Are they rope clues really so obvious they would catch on to its use, who has it, and what he is likely to do?

No, Occam's Razor says the wolves knew I was going to be protected tonight. I'm going to have to think more on this.

Barkeep49 · 04-09-2009, 08:16 AM

I'm struggling with this rope thing as well and am not quite sure what to make of it at this point.

I am more confident about going after Jackyl. As mentioned he's incredibly unlikely to be guarded last night. This means every other possibility is a positive. If I'm the wolves I'm trying to find the BG, find Drew, and kill villagers, in that order. Jackyl could have been the BG or Drew so killing him is a low risk, potentially high reward situation.

Abe Sargent · 04-09-2009, 08:38 AM

In the clear of morning, Lathum's logic is irrefutable. I'm in.

Vote Autumn

EagleFan · 04-09-2009, 08:47 AM

Everyone begins to wake up, Tuessday morning has arrived. You look around and find that everyone is still here, everyone that was still alive that is.

As you look around you see that The Jackal's body is gone. This office must have a REALLY good maid.

The only thng that remains of him are meomories; memories of him wondering the office hopeing to avoid Lumbergh so that he may keep his sanity; memories of him wearing that stupid mask hoops brought to the Holiday party.

Sadly those memories seem to be fading quickly as your main concern is getting out of this place alive.

Autumn · 04-09-2009, 09:22 AM

It seems clear to me that the wolves decided not to take any chances given my vague announcement. A night without a kill would be bad, and there was a chance they'd make a lucky hit on Jackal if he happened to be the BG or Drew. I tried to do my best to make it vague what exactly it was I could do, but I suspected that the wolves might figure out that it was the rope. Obviously they would not say so publicly, and it seems they were the only ones to surmise this.

We're down to what, 12 people? We assume that three or four of them are wolves. The wolves are certainly going to push this line of reasoning as it will focus attention on me and waste another day. I expect we won't see many other lines of thought, which should give you all pause. With the rope out of the way they can get me lynched, go after another villager tonight and we'd be down to 10, with three or four villagers, possibly anohter one if they're lucky enough to hit Drew.

Based on how eager Lathum, and quick, to jump on this analysis, which I know to be wrong, I'm going to guess he's a wolf. It would be in their interests to quickly brand me as suspicious and set the line of talk for the next day. That's where I'm going unless I notice anything else going through the votes yesterday.

PurdueBrad · 04-09-2009, 09:28 AM

I was thinking that today might look like a Lathum-Autumn showdown based on the analysis that's been happening.

I'm assuming that with 12 people, there are 3 wolves and Drew (4 seems high given that we've hit one, although 2 might be possible but I prefer to look at it from a worst case scenario). So we're currently 9-3, which means that today or tomorrow we've got to have a good day to still have a shot at things.

Lathum · 04-09-2009, 09:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn

It seems clear to me that the wolves decided not to take any chances given my vague announcement. A night without a kill would be bad, and there was a chance they'd make a lucky hit on Jackal if he happened to be the BG or Drew.

The problem with that is EVERYONE thought you were hinting at being the bodyguard. Why would the wolves be the only ones to not make that assumption?

Quote:

Based on how eager Lathum, and quick, to jump on this analysis, which I know to be wrong, I'm going to guess he's a wolf. It would be in their interests to quickly brand me as suspicious and set the line of talk for the next day. That's where I'm going unless I notice anything else going through the votes yesterday.

VOTE AUTUMN

this clinches it for me. You reek of desperation with that post. It is such a typical wolf move to try and turn things on the person coming at you hardest.

If I am a wolf at this point I can care less about you. You are FAR from cleared and I now know you aren't the BG. I would for sure be looking to lynch someone else hoping I get lucky.

Lathum · 04-09-2009, 09:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn

It seems clear to me that the wolves decided not to take any chances given my vague announcement. A night without a kill would be bad, and there was a chance they'd make a lucky hit on Jackal if he happened to be the BG or Drew. I tried to do my best to make it vague what exactly it was I could do, but I suspected that the wolves might figure out that it was the rope. Obviously they would not say so publicly, and it seems they were the only ones to surmise this.
.

this may have gotten lost in the quote tags above

The problem with that is EVERYONE thought you were hinting at being the bodyguard. Why would the wolves be the only ones to not make that assumption?

Lathum · 04-09-2009, 09:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

I was thinking that today might look like a Lathum-Autumn showdown based on the analysis that's been happening.

If you or anyone else think I am a wolf then by all means ask me anything you like.

PurdueBrad · 04-09-2009, 09:37 AM

Lathum, you've posed the big question I've been thinking. There is no way that the wolves didn't misread that like everyone else UNLESS Autumn is a wolf.

As for questioning you, day 1 made me think you might be a wolf but since then you've actually echoed a lot of my thoughts. I did this once so let me put this back.

vote Autumn

Autumn · 04-09-2009, 09:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

this may have gotten lost in the quote tags above

The problem with that is EVERYONE thought you were hinting at being the bodyguard. Why would the wolves be the only ones to not make that assumption?

Well, EVERYONE includes the three or four wolves around. So we're saying that out of the 12 people left, three or four of them may have guessed otherwise and not said anything. I was surprised nobody else wondered about the rope or some other ability that may not have been quoted in the rules, but clearly it wouldn't be in the wolves' interest to say anything if they did.

I thought it was fairly clear I was something other than the bodyguard, since there would have been no proof this morning that I was. I asked you all to give me until today, but if I'd been the bodyguard and protected myself, or someone else, and Chief died, you would still have no proof of my claim. Clearly the wolves thought this out.

Even if I had been the bodyguard, by not attacking Chief and pulling off a kill they would have cast my claim in doubt and left the circle of trust at one.

USFLTecmo · 04-09-2009, 09:43 AM

I just can't wrap my mind around why the wolves wouldn't have tried to off Chief Rum, given that Clap wasn't protected night two, which pretty much means Chief Rum WAS if the bodyguard is paying close attention. I, for one, didn't think the rope had the ability to be used to "protect" someone, and probably wouldn't have figured it out if I ended up with it.

Autumn · 04-09-2009, 09:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn

I would like to suggest that there is a good reason why it would be a poor choice for the group to lynch me before tonight. If I give more specifics than that it will remove the value of what I can offer. I hate to bring it up, both because it seems like a lame wolf ploy, and because it's losing advantage for us, but I can't think of any way of avoiding it. All I can ask is that the group give me the benefit of the doubt for this one cycle and look at me again tomorrow.

As some evidence, please reread my original post and see if you think it's possible someone would read something other than "bodyguard" into this. "If I give more specifics than that it will remove the value of what I can offer." Doesn't that suggest that it's something other than the first thing everyone thinks of?

PurdueBrad · 04-09-2009, 09:46 AM

I read that as: If I give more specifics, then I have to waste the ability on guarding myself rather than someone else. And, more importantly, I will eventually die for being the BG. But I may be the only one that read it that way.

04-08-2009, 09:42 PM	#957
Abe Sargent Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Catonsville, MD	??? __________________ Check out my two current weekly Magic columns! https://www.coolstuffinc.com/a/?action=search&page=1&author[]=Abe%20Sargent

04-08-2009, 09:49 PM	#959
Abe Sargent Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Catonsville, MD	Yeah, I totally don;t buy that __________________ Check out my two current weekly Magic columns! https://www.coolstuffinc.com/a/?action=search&page=1&author[]=Abe%20Sargent

04-08-2009, 09:49 PM	#960
Abe Sargent Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Catonsville, MD	Everyone here knew you were intimating that you were the BG __________________ Check out my two current weekly Magic columns! https://www.coolstuffinc.com/a/?action=search&page=1&author[]=Abe%20Sargent

04-08-2009, 09:50 PM	#963
Abe Sargent Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Catonsville, MD	I'm going to have to think about this. __________________ Check out my two current weekly Magic columns! https://www.coolstuffinc.com/a/?action=search&page=1&author[]=Abe%20Sargent

04-08-2009, 09:56 PM	#966
Abe Sargent Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Catonsville, MD	I'd like CR to confirm the rope's powers __________________ Check out my two current weekly Magic columns! https://www.coolstuffinc.com/a/?action=search&page=1&author[]=Abe%20Sargent

04-08-2009, 09:36 PM	#951
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	Purdue, Chief didn't change the lynch because we lynched the person he was voting for. That's all.

04-08-2009, 09:37 PM	#952
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	NM, reread the description, guess it is only able to be used to block a night action. I'm not sure what to make of Autumn pulling this move, although if he's the BG I wonder if this allowed him to make a double-block.

04-08-2009, 09:38 PM	#953
EagleFan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA	For the record, there was nothing standing in the way of any action for the day phase today. I threw that in based on the early speculation that a duking would occur, I did not mean to mislead anyone with that. Any actions that can be publicly known will be. The only minor hints to pick up on may be clues for finding hidden items, such as the rope.

04-08-2009, 09:39 PM	#954
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	So Autumn, did you pull off a BG block? Is that what you meant when you said you scared off the attack?

04-08-2009, 09:39 PM	#955
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	I'll make it clear: I assumed that Chief Rum would be unprotected tonight. As the only villager we know of for sure, I felt we needed to keep him alive. The rope would allow me to help him survive an attack. I hoped if I kept it quiet that I was going to use it, the wolves would still attack and we'd block them for a night.

04-08-2009, 09:42 PM	#956
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	I'm confused though, did you ever come out as the BG?

04-08-2009, 09:47 PM	#958
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	When I said it would be a bad idea to lynch me, it was because it would prevent me from using the rope. I could have transferred it to Chief but that would have been a public action and pretty much tipped the wolves off.

04-08-2009, 09:49 PM	#961
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	Then I misread what Autumn said before. BG, do not reveal yourself (obviously). unvote Autumn

04-08-2009, 09:50 PM	#962
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	I'm not sure what to think, but you seemed happy to let everyone think you were the BG to avoid a lynch and then after everyone says the BG should come out after the night phase you correct that.

04-08-2009, 09:54 PM	#964
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	This is all predicated on Autumn NOT being the BG... I'm calling BS on Autumn here. Lets say Autumn is a wolf. Autumn makes this play and not only buys trust with the village, but keeps the real BG from outing him because now the real BG assumes Autumn was making a smart villager play. The wolves know Autumn is going to pull this move so they steer clear of CR. The thing that really hammers it home for me is Clap was killed last night, so logicaly the BG protected CR, the only trusted villager last night. So why would the wolves steer clear of him? IMO it's to establish this level of trust and go for a bigger target, the real BG. thoughts

04-08-2009, 09:54 PM	#965
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	I wasn't about to clarify that I was not the BG, but in fact had the rope. Then there would have been no point in even using it, as the wolves could easily piece together what my plan was. I was not vague to save my butt, I was vague so that the wolves would be unsure who to target. I tried to make it vague so that the wolves would not be clear on what exactly it was i could do. Unfortunately nobody, publicly at least, seemed to consider the possibility of the rope or other possibly unknown abilities. It's not my fault that the only possibilty everyone considered was that I was the bodyguard. I had hoped not to be targeted in the lynch at all and not have to even bring up the rope.

04-08-2009, 09:58 PM	#967
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	I would suggest that those of you feeling extra suspicious consider what you would have done in my situation. Possessing a rope that could save the Duke, but only if the wolves did not know it was going to be used on him, and being targeted in the lynch. I am quite sure I am a villager, and so it's very interesting to me to see who is eager to chase after me now. It's clear to me that the wolves figured out what I was doing, or at least figured it was better to target someone off the radar and not risk losing a kill. It's doubly a good move for them because now they can claim that makes me look bad.

04-08-2009, 10:00 PM	#970
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	Definitely we need a confirm from Chief, who doesn't look like he'll be in for a while. And feel free to bark up my tree, i knew that likely would happen but I thought I might keep Chief alive another night. At this point I'm not sure it will help much to have him, as we're losing villagers quickly and don't have a way to expand the circle of trust.

04-08-2009, 10:07 PM	#974
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	here is another thing I don't but. If I am a wolf, I am assuming Autumn is the bodyguard based on his posts. Now I assume CR was protected last night since Clap wasn't. So as a wolf why am I going for Jackal? Why not either CR who I can safely assume can't be protected again or Autumn who says he is the BG so I can at best kill him tonight or at worst get him out of the game for sure by tomorrow night?

04-08-2009, 10:12 PM	#975
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	dola- I can also see Autumn being Drew hoping the wolves would come after him assuming he IS the BG

04-08-2009, 10:24 PM	#980
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	I'm heading off to bed. It was a disappointing day in the office. I look forward to some vote analysis tomorrow. Lathum's obviously going to be barking up my tree but I think we can turn up some other suspects.

04-08-2009, 10:28 PM	#982
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	triple dola now I'm really off to bed.

04-08-2009, 10:28 PM	#983
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	I'm sorry, but it all seems a little to neatly wrapped up.

04-08-2009, 10:30 PM	#984
EagleFan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA	Heading off to get some sleep. Just got done watching a replay of the ring ceremony. Very nice indeed!!! I'll check in as early as possible tomorrow to see if there are any questions and to add to the story with the daily snippet.

04-08-2009, 10:43 PM	#985
Poli FOFC Survivor Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Wentzville, MO	This rope thing has me totally confused. __________________ Cheer for a walk on quarterback! Ardent leads the Vols in the dynasty forum.

04-09-2009, 01:05 AM	#987
Chief Rum Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Where Hip Hop lives	Looks like everyone's been waiting on me. Okay, this was a weird night. Unfortunately, I don't really have much else to offer. As we headed for the meeting, I felt the rope wrap around me, and saw that Autumn was tied to the other end. I couldn't free myself until after the meeting. Pretty similar to EF's rundown. As for the lynch, as Autumn and Lathum both surmised (to an extent), I had a conditional order that was only set to trigger in two specific instances: in case of a tie, or in case Autumn got the lynch. The reason for the first is obvious, I am sure, while the second was because I said I would give Autumn that chance. If the conditionals weren't met, I would let the lynch go down as voted. Since cartman got the vote, my conditional wasn't met and my power still has not been used. My Lord, I must be the longest living, most public Duke ever by now. Interesting results. Do I owe Autumn for my life? Quite possibly. Or was it a ploy to gain trust, while another wolf went after The Jackal? The logic Lathum has put is correct. clap was not protected last night by the BG. And he was the outed seer, the most powerful villager role in the game. He would clearly have been protected if he could. So that means the BG protected clap on N1. Since the BG could not protect clap, I was the only other logical choice last night, meaning I was unprotected tonight. So I expected to die tonight, without being able to be protected. So why would the wolves not even attempt to strike at me? I'm by far the only person with trust right now, and I have a power, too. Why wouldn't I be attacked? Maybe if they felt certain they knew who the BG was, that might be it. But that's quite the gut feeling, especially since the BG, unable to protect me, probably protects himself. Are they rope clues really so obvious they would catch on to its use, who has it, and what he is likely to do? No, Occam's Razor says the wolves knew I was going to be protected tonight. I'm going to have to think more on this. __________________ . . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.

04-09-2009, 08:16 AM	#988
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	I'm struggling with this rope thing as well and am not quite sure what to make of it at this point. I am more confident about going after Jackyl. As mentioned he's incredibly unlikely to be guarded last night. This means every other possibility is a positive. If I'm the wolves I'm trying to find the BG, find Drew, and kill villagers, in that order. Jackyl could have been the BG or Drew so killing him is a low risk, potentially high reward situation.

04-09-2009, 08:38 AM	#989
Abe Sargent Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Catonsville, MD	In the clear of morning, Lathum's logic is irrefutable. I'm in. Vote Autumn __________________ Check out my two current weekly Magic columns! https://www.coolstuffinc.com/a/?action=search&page=1&author[]=Abe%20Sargent

04-09-2009, 08:47 AM	#990
EagleFan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA	Everyone begins to wake up, Tuessday morning has arrived. You look around and find that everyone is still here, everyone that was still alive that is. As you look around you see that The Jackal's body is gone. This office must have a REALLY good maid. The only thng that remains of him are meomories; memories of him wondering the office hopeing to avoid Lumbergh so that he may keep his sanity; memories of him wearing that stupid mask hoops brought to the Holiday party. Sadly those memories seem to be fading quickly as your main concern is getting out of this place alive.

04-09-2009, 09:22 AM	#991
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	It seems clear to me that the wolves decided not to take any chances given my vague announcement. A night without a kill would be bad, and there was a chance they'd make a lucky hit on Jackal if he happened to be the BG or Drew. I tried to do my best to make it vague what exactly it was I could do, but I suspected that the wolves might figure out that it was the rope. Obviously they would not say so publicly, and it seems they were the only ones to surmise this. We're down to what, 12 people? We assume that three or four of them are wolves. The wolves are certainly going to push this line of reasoning as it will focus attention on me and waste another day. I expect we won't see many other lines of thought, which should give you all pause. With the rope out of the way they can get me lynched, go after another villager tonight and we'd be down to 10, with three or four villagers, possibly anohter one if they're lucky enough to hit Drew. Based on how eager Lathum, and quick, to jump on this analysis, which I know to be wrong, I'm going to guess he's a wolf. It would be in their interests to quickly brand me as suspicious and set the line of talk for the next day. That's where I'm going unless I notice anything else going through the votes yesterday.

04-09-2009, 09:28 AM	#992
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	I was thinking that today might look like a Lathum-Autumn showdown based on the analysis that's been happening. I'm assuming that with 12 people, there are 3 wolves and Drew (4 seems high given that we've hit one, although 2 might be possible but I prefer to look at it from a worst case scenario). So we're currently 9-3, which means that today or tomorrow we've got to have a good day to still have a shot at things.

04-09-2009, 09:37 AM	#996
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	Lathum, you've posed the big question I've been thinking. There is no way that the wolves didn't misread that like everyone else UNLESS Autumn is a wolf. As for questioning you, day 1 made me think you might be a wolf but since then you've actually echoed a lot of my thoughts. I did this once so let me put this back. vote Autumn

04-09-2009, 09:43 AM	#998
USFLTecmo H.S. Freshman Team Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Madison, Wisconsin	I just can't wrap my mind around why the wolves wouldn't have tried to off Chief Rum, given that Clap wasn't protected night two, which pretty much means Chief Rum WAS if the bodyguard is paying close attention. I, for one, didn't think the rope had the ability to be used to "protect" someone, and probably wouldn't have figured it out if I ended up with it.

04-09-2009, 09:46 AM	#1000
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	I read that as: If I give more specifics, then I have to waste the ability on guarding myself rather than someone else. And, more importantly, I will eventually die for being the BG. But I may be the only one that read it that way.

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