COVID-19 - Wuhan Coronavirus (a non-political thread, see pg. 36 #1778)

[bob]

Also, school closings aren't going to do anything unless everyone is told / forced to stay at home.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Ohio has now banned 100+ gatherings.

Not picking on the poster or Ohio here by any means. In Michigan, we went from no cases two days ago to a dozen confirmed (as mentioned, yes I know there are really a lot more we don't know about) and shut down K-12 schools for three weeks as an initial measure. I work at a restaurant, and so this kind of thing makes me wonder: how much stuff are we really going to shut down? How much should we??

I don't know the answer. I do know that every night, the establishment I work at is a public gathering of over 100 people. Well over 200 if it's busy. I'm curious from those who are in areas where the virus has spread more if you have any observations about how the restaurant business is faring (or not). Is this keeping people in more? The business tends to incubate diseases like this so unless it's not nearly as contagious as people think it is I expect a lot of establishments to just not be able to operate before long. I'm not trying to make this about me or anything, a great many people will have it worse than I do, I'm just curious and looking for information.

Panic is definitely starting to set in with some people and I see a lot on the extremes - i.e' 'chill it's just the flu' or 'the sky is falling' while I still remain in the middle. I'm going to be cautious, I've reached out to extended family to keep communication open, I'm not spending any money I don't have to in order to be as prepared as possible for increased prices, etc. but I think this is going to be a fascinating, as well as the obvious tragic aspects, moment in modern history. If nothing else, it sure shows how tenuous our hold on comfort and prosperity really is as a sobering matter.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Not picking on the poster or Ohio here by any means. In Michigan, we went from no cases two days ago to a dozen confirmed (as mentioned, yes I know there are really a lot more we don't know about) and shut down K-12 schools for three weeks as an initial measure. I work at a restaurant, and so this kind of thing makes me wonder: how much stuff are we really going to shut down? How much should we??

I don't know the answer. I do know that every night, the establishment I work at is a public gathering of over 100 people. Well over 200 if it's busy. I'm curious from those who are in areas where the virus has spread more if you have any observations about how the restaurant business is faring (or not). Is this keeping people in more? The business tends to incubate diseases like this so unless it's not nearly as contagious as people think it is I expect a lot of establishments to just not be able to operate before long. I'm not trying to make this about me or anything, a great many people will have it worse than I do, I'm just curious and looking for information.

Panic is definitely starting to set in with some people and I see a lot on the extremes - i.e' 'chill it's just the flu' or 'the sky is falling' while I still remain in the middle. I'm going to be cautious, I've reached out to extended family to keep communication open, I'm not spending any money I don't have to in order to be as prepared as possible for increased prices, etc. but I think this is going to be a fascinating, as well as the obvious tragic aspects, moment in modern history. If nothing else, it sure shows how tenuous our hold on comfort and prosperity really is as a sobering matter.

Purely anecdotal, but last night me and a friend went to the local applebees. Our kids take an art class together and we usually drop them at the class then go over for s few cold ones. We were the only ones in the place last night at 5:30 on a thursday.

[NobodyHere]

And there goes the XFL season, I was really hoping to see that league succeed.

[PilotMan]

Well guys, I'm still traveling and working, but the anxiety in the industry as this snowballs is substantial and escalating at a 9/11 pace.


I know that if the spread of the virus can be slowed to a constant pace, and it's enough for medical to manage, and we get past the initial explosion that it'll come back quick, but until then, we've all been through bad times before and nobody is ready to go back to that.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by bob

If schools are closing, why aren't they closing until next week? Why not immediately?

Off the top of my head...

1. To give parents some notice. Families with younger children where all the adults in the home work have to figure this out.
2. To figure out distance learning options. Schools here aren't closed yet, but our district did a robocall survey last night asking if we had a laptop our kids can use, and internet access at home.
3. To avoid the appearance of panic. For reasons I mentioned in an earlier post, I believe elementary schools in particular are one of the worst things to leave open. However, saying "we're closed as of tomorrow" *could* do more harm than good.

Originally Posted by bob

Also, school closings aren't going to do anything unless everyone is told / forced to stay at home.

Not having 25 million of the most unhygenic in our population in close proximity to one another for 6 hours a day will absolutely make a difference.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

I work at a restaurant, and so this kind of thing makes me wonder: how much stuff are we really going to shut down? How much should we??

I don't know the answer. I do know that every night, the establishment I work at is a public gathering of over 100 people. Well over 200 if it's busy. I'm curious from those who are in areas where the virus has spread more if you have any observations about how the restaurant business is faring (or not). Is this keeping people in more? The business tends to incubate diseases like this so unless it's not nearly as contagious as people think it is I expect a lot of establishments to just not be able to operate before long. I'm not trying to make this about me or anything, a great many people will have it worse than I do, I'm just curious and looking for information.

No infected officially yet in our suburbia town but everyone knows it's in GA.

Still going to fast food places and went to a couple restaurants past couple weeks. Just my limited data point, there are emptier shelves but still long lines at CFA. My guess is the food business will inevitably take a hit and it will get worse before better.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Off the top of my head...

1. To give parents some notice. Families with younger children where all the adults in the home work have to figure this out.
2. To figure out distance learning options. Schools here aren't closed yet, but our district did a robocall survey last night asking if we had a laptop our kids can use, and internet access at home.
3. To avoid the appearance of panic. For reasons I mentioned in an earlier post, I believe elementary schools in particular are one of the worst things to leave open. However, saying "we're closed as of tomorrow" *could* do more harm than good.


Not having 25 million of the most unhygenic in our population in close proximity to one another for 6 hours a day will absolutely make a difference.

Yup, pretty much this.

[AlexB]

Originally Posted by bob

I'm not in medicine or public policy, but the whole response is weird to me. Either we are over reacting or not reacting enough.

If schools are closing, why aren't they closing until next week? Why not immediately? Is this all just CYA behavior? A lot of things feel like that but then you see the situation in Italy and wonder why we aren't be more aggressive in our response. Overall it just leads to a bunch of confusion.

If you have a spare 30-45 minutes, I’d recommend watching Boris Johnson’s news conference yesterday, with his Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientific Officer. They explained it very well IMHO, and although a different country, the principles should translate.

[Breeze]

My company was in the process of expanding our teleworking policy this week in response/preparation of the disease impact, but a positive case was just reported in the building where our Jacksonville satellite office is located. Now the urgency is increasing significantly. This is going to be interesting. Hope the employees in that office aren't in full blown panic mode while we walk through their options later this morning.

[spleen1015]

I'm surprised there hasn't been a confirm case in my building. There have only been 13 cases confirmed in Indiana, but I work in a building with a 1500 person call center.

In my area alone, the people come from all corners of Indy including the area where there are 3 confirmed cases.

It is just a matter of time.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Not having 25 million of the most unhygenic in our population in close proximity to one another for 6 hours a day will absolutely make a difference.

This. And we have data from 1918 that suggests closing schools slows transmission.

[larrymcg421]

For Fulton County, we still came in today, which was already a planned teacher workday. We're using the day to assign students weekly internet assignments.

[cartman]

Two cases now confirmed in Austin

[miami_fan]

A friend of mine works at the school district office and gave me a behind the scenes view of a local story.

Background: We have been getting email and phone updates for the last three weeks or so telling us the district is working with the Health Dept., there are no confirmed cases etc. They have engaged a few parents with questions about the virus, school plans and such but it was on par with parents concerned with food allergies. Pretty normal stuff. Then this happened

https://www.fox13news.com/news/farne...avirus-patient

To quote my friend, "You would have thought we dump the virus in the fire sprinkler system and spray the kids with it." More than 1200 phone calls asking among other things:

Is the district going to refund the cost of testing/medical treaments?
Why are visitors being allowed in the school without being vetted?

They also took the buses that serve that school out of service to be deep cleaned.

If that is what happens for this pretty benign case given all we know about how it does or does not affect children, I can't imagine what would happen
if there was an actual confirmed case of a student. I understand why they would close schools.

[miked]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Not picking on the poster or Ohio here by any means. In Michigan, we went from no cases two days ago to a dozen confirmed (as mentioned, yes I know there are really a lot more we don't know about) and shut down K-12 schools for three weeks as an initial measure. I work at a restaurant, and so this kind of thing makes me wonder: how much stuff are we really going to shut down? How much should we??

I don't know the answer. I do know that every night, the establishment I work at is a public gathering of over 100 people. Well over 200 if it's busy. I'm curious from those who are in areas where the virus has spread more if you have any observations about how the restaurant business is faring (or not). Is this keeping people in more? The business tends to incubate diseases like this so unless it's not nearly as contagious as people think it is I expect a lot of establishments to just not be able to operate before long. I'm not trying to make this about me or anything, a great many people will have it worse than I do, I'm just curious and looking for information.

Panic is definitely starting to set in with some people and I see a lot on the extremes - i.e' 'chill it's just the flu' or 'the sky is falling' while I still remain in the middle. I'm going to be cautious, I've reached out to extended family to keep communication open, I'm not spending any money I don't have to in order to be as prepared as possible for increased prices, etc. but I think this is going to be a fascinating, as well as the obvious tragic aspects, moment in modern history. If nothing else, it sure shows how tenuous our hold on comfort and prosperity really is as a sobering matter.

I am going to avoid most restaurants at all costs. When there is an epidemic, I'm going to avoid the places where potentially unhygienic people are touching my food, let alone people who are more likely to work sick because they need the money. No danke! I would imagine most restaurants will have to temporarily close over the next few weeks and then apply for bailouts.

[JPhillips]

I’ve read a bunch of notes on coronavirus from clinicians sharing observed data as well as from attendees at the (quite bleak) UCSF panel on coronavirus. A few key takeaways:

1. If you’re exposed to COVID, you’re likely to see symptoms in about 2-9 days, with median of 5 days.

— Jeff Yang (@originalspin) March 13, 2020

Good series of tweets on collected info we have.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by RendeR

There is a TON of misleading commentary out there. The thing I've noted from a couple different sources (Merkel's speech to Germany being the most recent) is that we're looking at something in the range of 70% total infection rate BEFORE this ends. And I'm using this as a worst case scenario. take that as pessimistic or optimistic, your choice.

Getting ahead of that isn't just an option while we wait for a plan of action, its a requirement if the death rate isn't going to leap logarithmicly at that point.

Buying time is the first best action we can take, time to build up supplies, time to prepare triage and treatment centers on a large scale and time, perhaps, for a vaccine to be discovered.

Even if we're looking at a minimal 1% casualty rate, this country alone is looking at a possible number just under 3 MILLION dead.

We have to slow this down if we're even going to have a chance. The infrastructure stress alone could destroy normal society as we've grown up knowing it. IF I have a heart attack during the peak I could be looking at a death notice instead of a week in the hospital and a quick surgery beacause of the heavy load already on the services.

If we're going to hit 70% of the population infected (and once you get over ~10% I don't understand why that number would be less than 95%) regardless, then we're just adding a voluntary economic recession on top of a health crisis for the elderly we can't avoid. Now I don't think we'll hit those numbers, but if the argument is "we're all going to get it, just delay the inevitable" I think you're going to start having massive social upheavals in 2-3 weeks when the disease is still floating around & you're extending the period you're asking the large chunk of society that isn't in mortal danger to suspend & delay their lives. And unfortunately unlike the best case scenario (South Korea) I don't think a 2-3 week quarantine will work because we don't have the resources to test people (or desire in some cases).

Shurg, tl;dr I think the government & public was underestimating the threat before, but I think the pendulum has swung too far. And I get why people are throwing around #'s like 3 million deaths, but I would guess we end up 2 orders of magnitude lower with deaths in the 30,000 range, which is still very bad but not cataclysmic.

[AlexB]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

This. And we have data from 1918 that suggests closing schools slows transmission.

While this definitely needs to be considered, it is 100 year old data, from a very different society without anywhere near the same level of domestic or international travel.

The data differs so wildly now within a 3-month period between China, South Korea, Iran, Italy all being very different and at least as relevant.

I am not a medical expert, and I’m definitely in the group that says follow the official advice of those who are. In the UK this type of anyalsis shows why data from a month ago may not be as relevant as it may appear, let alone 100 years ago...

Coronavirus: Three reasons why the UK might not look like Italy - BBC News

[CU Tiger]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

This. And we have data from 1918 that suggests closing schools slows transmission.

I do wonder how relevant 1918 data is to current society.

In 1918 what % of population owned a car? What % went to "town" more than every couple weeks? Closing school might have largely eliminated social gathering, today not so much.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by AlexB

Coronavirus: Three reasons why the UK might not look like Italy - BBC News

#4 - the cheek kissing thing

[QuikSand]

Credit where it's due... this guy is acting like the adult in the room

.@SenTedCruz extends quarantine. pic.twitter.com/PjBwl7g0MI

— Julie Fine (@JulieFineNBC5) March 13, 2020

[JPhillips]

Maybe the school closings don't help much, but why wouldn't we try that given the information we have?

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Credit where it's due... this guy is acting like the adult in the room

.@SenTedCruz extends quarantine. pic.twitter.com/PjBwl7g0MI

— Julie Fine (@JulieFineNBC5) March 13, 2020

Any of the other candidates in 2016 would have handled this better than Trump.

[bob]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Maybe the school closings don't help much, but why wouldn't we try that given the information we have?

To be clear, I'm not against the closings. I was just curious why they aren't immediate.

I am, however, against the idiot parents that are already setting up mass playdates, etc.

[Lathum]

Masters PPD.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Credit where it's due... this guy is acting like the adult in the room

Meanwhile, Bolsonaro has tested positive. No word on Trump or Pence even being tested.

[miami_fan]

So is it just the Bundesliga and Liga Mx left as far as sports goes?

[molson]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

So is it just the Bundesliga and Liga Mx left as far as sports goes?

UFC and Bellator are still planning empty arena shows this weekend.

[AlexB]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Maybe the school closings don't help much, but why wouldn't we try that given the information we have?

It’s a long watch, but informative

Coronavirus: Boris Johnson holds press conference after Cobra meeting – watch in full - YouTube

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by bob

To be clear, I'm not against the closings. I was just curious why they aren't immediate.

I am, however, against the idiot parents that are already setting up mass playdates, etc.

There will likely be a lot of kids going to each others houses because parents have to work.

I'm a stay at home dad, and as of now our schools are still open. If they close I want to reach out to close friends and offer them the choice to bring their kids here so they can go to work but leery to do so. It is a hard balance between being a good friend and being cautious.

[Warhammer]

Archdiocese of Cincinnati has just sent out a note that while masses will still be held, you do not need to attend Sunday mass through March 29th. Not sure I have ever heard of that before.

Also, if you are sick, you are specifically asked to not attend.

[NobodyHere]

The latest casualty:

British KFCs have suspended their "Finger lickin good" campaigns.

[grdawg]

Originally Posted by grdawg

Long timer who hasn’t posted in many years but have lurked. Been following this for a while and have been concerned. My wife and I are supposed to go to a cousins wedding in less than 2 weeks. It’s about and hour and 20 min flight and I am basically resigned to not going, however, my brother texted the bride tonight and it’s pretty clear she doesn’t think this is a big deal. My brother is local but he said he wouldn’t fly. My wife isn’t that concerned and wants to go. My mother, who we’d be staying with is over 70 and concerned with us staying with her and also concerned about going. My wife’s parents are over 70 with pre existing conditions so more at risk and would be watching our kids while at the wedding. I’m in my 40s and fairly healthy so I guess lower risk, but like others said could be putting others at risk by being in their presence. Oh and also live in a county that has just closed school for 2 days

Curious what some of you would do.

Well they did the right thing and postponed the wedding.

[molson]

Originally Posted by molson

UFC and Bellator are still planning empty arena shows this weekend.

IndyCar, Nascar, and Australian Football are all on too.

[miami_fan]

Observations upon my return from the local Publix.

1. A bit more crowded than usual but nowhere near as crowded as hurricane prep time.

2. An older lady demanded that she wipe down the cart handle before she would allow me to take back her cart for her. She had just finished sanitizing her hands

3. Sandwich line was empty. As in I could have walked straight up and ordered. I have never seen that before after 11am

4. Still no TP, hand sanitizer and alcohol wipes. Plenty of Bounty paper towels. I am assuming they just got a shipment in or else people hate Bounty.

5. Message to the guy who on Monday was ripping the Little League for being "snowflakes" after the banning of high fives in the "good game" line. YOU can't be the guy now requesting to bump elbows as a greeting!

5. Passed by McDonald's on the way. Parking lot and drive thru pretty empty for this time of day.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Meanwhile, Bolsonaro has tested positive. No word on Trump or Pence even being tested.

And now the mayor of Miami, who also met with Bolsonaro. It really seems that if neither Trump nor Pence have it, they're quite lucky.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

And now the mayor of Miami, who also met with Bolsonaro. It really seems that if neither Trump nor Pence have it, they're quite lucky.

Or they are the Chosen Ones

[Arles]

Malcolm Gladwell made an interesting point today. Basically, each flu has thousands of strains and the weaker ones usually win out over time. If someone catches a stronger strain, chances are they are bed ridden and not coming into contact with a bunch of people. If you have a weaker strain, you are probably still going to work and passing that on. So, it makes sense that the virus' impact will weaken over time as the weaker strains propagate. With that in mind, taking these initial steps may not just widen the curve - but may also reduce the potency of the virus to a point where the death rates also decrease.

[JPhillips]

But now Brazil is saying Bolsonaro tested negative.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

So is it just the Bundesliga and Liga Mx left as far as sports goes?

Someone got in the Bundesliga's ear, they are done now.

[molson]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Or they are the Chosen Ones

He has not completed his work.

The Trump Prophecy - Wikipedia

Pence is probably fucked though, there's no divine plan for him.

[JPhillips]

#COVID19 is not a Democratic virus or a Republican virus. It is a dangerous virus. This is a serious public health crisis, and we need to take it seriously. pic.twitter.com/24LXuZs0MW

— Senator Ted Cruz (@SenTedCruz) March 13, 2020

Hard to believe, but Ted Cruz is saying and doing all the right things.

[desertrats2]

In Spain, the president, who was unreacheable for the last 15 days has just decreted the state of alarm.


Our cabinet is full of outright commies, as a result of the alliance between socialdemocrats and communists (plus separatists of several regions united for their hate for the spanish nation). The socialdemocrats have gone nuts the last 10-12 years, with the former president flying to Venezuela 40 times over the last two years and the current being even more radical, in addition of a pathological liar and a undercover sociopath tyrant.


Last Sunday thousands tooked the streets because of a feminist demonstration while the government was spreading false data on purpose in order to prevent people from missing the demonstration. There is a clip over there showing the Minister of Equality, who was tested positive a couple of days later, coughing over an attendant's face. They traded public health for agit prop not suspending the gatherings, with commies and socialdemocrats stabbing each other on the back trying to gain momentum through ideologic matters.

Just saying this because we have already taken the same highway that Italy took 3 weeks ago or so. We are still trailing by a mile but travelling in a rocket instead of a Ferrari. We just gone from 500 to 4500 positives (plus +120 deaths) in 5 days while the government did nothing until today.


This is getting quite serious over here. It is the only topic of conversation in Spain right now.

[molson]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Hard to believe, but Ted Cruz is saying and doing all the right things.

I think it's the beard. He's much more sensible and handsome these days.

[spleen1015]

Man. The city I live in just cancelled all city activities until 4/3. This includes Breakfast With a Leprechaun. Now I'm pissed!

[miami_fan]

I was not sure if CNET was one of the sites that would should not link to so I just copied and pasted the whole article.

Jack Ma, co-founder of e-commerce giant Alibaba, plans to donate 500,000 test kits and 1 million face masks to the US amid the coronavirus outbreak. In statement shared Friday on Twitter, the Chinese billionaire said the Jack Ma Foundation and Alibaba Foundation have the test kits and face masks "sourced and readied for shipment."

"Drawing from my own country's experience, speedy and accurate testing and adequate personal protective equipment for medical professionals are the most effective in preventing the spread of the virus," Ma said in the statement. "We can't beat this virus unless we eliminate boundaries to resources and share our know-how and hard-earned lessons."

Hangzhou, China-based Alibaba Group confirmed the donation to CNET. The Jack Ma Foundation didn't immediately respond to requests for more information.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

This. And we have data from 1918 that suggests closing schools slows transmission.

I was thinking about this too. In 1918, most of the women stayed home with the kids so closing schools just meant kids stayed home with their mom while the dad worked (or on a farm situation).

In 2020, many families have two working parents. So, aren't we just trading a 25-kid kindergarten class for a 25-kid day care room? I'm not sure this will slow it down as much as people think.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Hard to believe, but Ted Cruz is saying and doing all the right things.

Ted Cruz is hopelessly power-driven, and says and does whatever he thinks he needs to say and do in the moment in order to maintain/increase his power. Full stop.

Ted Cruz is also smart--smart enough to understand where this is headed. After things go terribly, being the conservative Republican who said and did all the right things could help him tremendously as his Party attempts to recover/rebuild. Numerous conservative pundits and publications are starting to grumble about the administration's response--not just NeverTrumpers, but some who have been complete bootlickers up to now. My guess is that he's angling for stature among that group.

[Butter]

I believe the Ohio numbers. Just because someone is infected doesn't mean they are symptomatic. There are likely a ton of people exposed / infected at this point. The curve is going to start ramping up pretty soon.

They just scheduled me for an outpatient procedure on April 3. That is right around the time I would expect the shit to hit the fan here, so it should be interesting.