06-21-2006, 08:51 AM | #951 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
|
So I did some research.
There was a lot of discussion about cronin on D1. This was pretty helpful. Now granted much of it was discussion of the early pile on about him, but still helpful. The following players, from my not too detailed but still OK reserach, commented on cronin specifically: Blade (who cast the first vote before cronin voted suspiciously) Anxiety (cast first vote after cronin voted suspiciously Barkeep (questioned suspicious vote) Saldana (questioned explanation of suspicious vote) Chubby (votes for cronin in retaliation) Schmidty (Votes for cronin in retaliation) King, SnDvls, Alan and Blade all are pretty upfront about questioning why there was such an early pile on cronin. So I'm willing to eliminate everyone from that group, for the time being, of being the head necro except for Blade. Blade comes right off the bat voting for cronin. Later backs away and asks aghast. This seems like good cover to me. I am also excusing Tangle as there is no indication he got on anytime during day 1/night 1, whether to submit a night order or day vote. I am also excusing path as I do not believe the pharoah also would start as the head necro, though that is a bit more of a logical leap. But I wish to have a more managable list and so for the time being I am willing to do that. So that leaves, in my mind, the following candidates to be head necro: 2. Passacaglia 7. Dubb 11. Lathum 12. Coffee Warlord 13. bulletsponge 14. Qwikshot 15. Tyrith 16. Bek 17. Blade6119 19. Vince Now some of those people I feel more suspicous about then others, but it is, for me, a starting point for today at least until more info is known. |
06-21-2006, 08:52 AM | #952 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
|
DOLA -- And even with a whole bunch of people taken off it's still half of the remaining players. So perhaps not the best start, but again A start.
|
06-21-2006, 09:05 AM | #953 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Mass.
|
Quote:
Barkeep with the silence spell being used on Cronin, i feel that the person who appeared to have staged this must have also voted for Cronin. The vote was actually quite close till the end. It would have been alot of effort to go through just to see Cronin not be lynched and Bek lynched instead. Here are the people who voted for him yesterday: Cronin - Saldana (618), Schmidty (659), Anxiety (731), Dubb (742), bullet (750), Barkeep (751), Alan T (756), Vince (767), Tanglewood (769). The only people who make both your list and the vote list from yesterday are: Dubb, Bulletspongue and Vince. Both Dubb and Vince hinted at things yesterday. Maybe this is the three to look at today closer. |
|
06-21-2006, 09:06 AM | #954 | |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: ...down the gravity well
|
Quote:
Well I'm not the head necromancer...I've been quiet because I've not been well (damn migraines). I think that Coffee and Tyrith have participated and haven't shown much to me to be suspicious about; Bulletsponge is the eager rookie...Blade has been very quiet, which is odd, being that he is the most combative smarmy type (at least in these games). We got Dubb claiming that he knows Sun is clean (perhaps brothers, are they in the game?) Lathum is the only one to claim to have been watched; I really wish someone else could say the same I don't excuse Tangle anymore, the fact that he's in a different timezone makes him especially capable of lying low because we disregard it, I was fine with it first night, but after that there is no holding back. Barkeep though I must admit, time and time again, the one doing the sifting out is generally manipulating for their own purposes (ala Hoops). I'm always cautious because I've been burned following the leaders. I didn't think Cronin was bad juju; I have nothing solid to go on anyone...I'm hoping that sooner or later we'll have more leads.
__________________
"General Woundwort's body was never found. It could be that he still lives his fierce life somewhere else, but from that day on, mother rabbits would tell their kittens that if they did not do as they were told, the General would get them. Such was Woundwort's monument, and perhaps it would not have displeased him." Watership Down, Richard Adams |
|
06-21-2006, 09:07 AM | #955 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Mass.
|
Dola, I'm not entirely sure why you ruled out some of the people you did on Day 1 because of their interaction on the cronin pileons. There is enough reverse psychology in this game to have the whole "setup vs non setup" sometimes end up being irrelevent. I think it is entirely possible someone push on cronin a fair bit, then decide to do a necro seer scan of him at night, find he left his room and think he must have an important role and then stage this today.
|
06-21-2006, 09:08 AM | #956 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Mass.
|
and Qwik ruins my dola!
|
06-21-2006, 09:17 AM | #957 | |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: TX
|
Quote:
im seriously considering not voting tonight, cause it appears if you guess wrong someone puts a nuece around you neck then. and also, the head necro would have to have taken a huge gamble to silence Cronin and vote for him at the same time, cause it would have undoubtibly narrowed to field of suspicion down to a select few. my bet is he silence Cronin and didnt vote for him, throwing all suspision off of him and putting it on the ones who voted for cronin |
|
06-21-2006, 09:18 AM | #958 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
|
Quote:
As I type that out, I'm not sure this logic is as strong as it would be if cronin hadn't been the center of so much of our D1 discussion. |
|
06-21-2006, 09:20 AM | #959 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
|
Quote:
Regardless of coordination voting patterns are important. If nothing else they apply pressure. Which reminds me: I would still like to hear more thoughts from Tangle, Bek, and Schmidty |
|
06-21-2006, 09:25 AM | #960 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Syracuse, NY
|
Nothing to report last night
To me, the three people I'm most suspicious of are: saldana - he started the run on Cronin yesterday. While i feel he had good justification for doing so I can't ignore the fact that he was the first to vote for him and seemed to be the one pushing things forward in the argument against Cronin. I don't know how he has played WW in the past so I don't have that to use at my disposal. dubb - dubb vouched for SnDvls which made me pull my vote for him (for a day at least) and I think caused other peopl to bypass SnDvls yesterday as well despite SnDvls clearly acting strange. Dubb also votes for cronin fairly early on (742). This is enough to arouse suspicision in my mind. lathum - his targetting of me out of the blue is part of the reason I'm suspicious of him, I won't deny that. I'm confused as to why he's doing so. The main reason I'm suspiscious of him is that he claims to have been viewed and noone else is stepping forward with a claim of also being viewed. This, to me, is representing a good seer view. If we take him at his word that means he's one of us and pretty golden. I'm not ready to throw him under a bus yet since I do side on the side of believing he had a good seer view but I can't dismiss the doubts he's raised so far. Just some rambling thoughts |
06-21-2006, 09:36 AM | #961 | ||||
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Colorado Springs
|
Dubb, The Case For:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Okay. Obviously something very bizarre happened there. I THOUGHT I knew what when I asked SnDvls if he could vouce for Dubb last night. I was figuring they were the Brothers, and Dubb simply forgot about it. Perfectly reasonable this early in the game. However, when SnDvls stated he could not vouch for Dubb, that possibility went out the window. Unless he's the seer, there's no other way I can think of where he could 100% vouch for someone. However, the fact that he was originally doubting him is still there, and still absolutely bewildering to me. Those comments essentially moved a couple more votes onto Cronin (along with dubb himself), which wound up becoming the deciding factor. Poke holes in my argument. Until someone does... Vote Dubb |
||||
06-21-2006, 09:37 AM | #962 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Syracuse, NY
|
Quote:
Just to clarify... Blade voted for Cronin (the 1st vote before cronin "helped" me and voted for me) because Cronin made a Tom Brady comment. I'll go back, again, and find the exact post # but it was page 4 or 5 I believe. |
|
06-21-2006, 09:37 AM | #963 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
|
Hey guys, I'm *almost* caught up now! Two pages to go. I've got to head out for a couple hours, then I'll be back. I see myself on a list for head necromancer, and I promise that that's not me. This may not be fool-proof, but maybe we should look at people who were logged on during the time cronin was silenced?
|
06-21-2006, 09:41 AM | #964 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Syracuse, NY
|
Heh, I just remembered my pages probably don't match up to everyone elses' pages.
Blade's D1 vote on Cronin is #139. He doesn't crack my top 3 yet but just want to have the most accurate info at our disposal. |
06-21-2006, 09:41 AM | #965 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Mass.
|
Quote:
I don't know of an easy way to do that after the fact. I thought about this, but the only thing we could really do is look to see who posted roughly 1 hour - 2 hours before the lynch (ie: when silence spell was used as far as we are aware). But just because someone did not post at that time, does not mean they were not on and reading then. Maybe I'll go back and see who voted for him and correlate that with how much time before lynch it was to try to relate that to the silence spell supposed casting time. |
|
06-21-2006, 10:02 AM | #966 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Mass.
|
1:45p Lathum votes for Chubby (1)
3:32p Cronin votes for Schmidty (1) 3:41p Saldana votes for Cronin (1) 3:45p Sndvls votes for Coffee (1) 3:49p King votes for sndvls (1) 4:53p Coffee votes for Sndvls (2) 5:36p Schmidty votes for cronin (2) 5:41p Vince votes for Passacaglia (1) 6:15p Alan votes for Bek (1) 6:24p Path votes for bek (2) 6:30p Barkeep votes for bek (3) 6:33p Barkeep unvotes bek (2) 6:34p Passacaglia votes Tanglewood (1) 7:12p Chubby votes Sndvls (3) 7:31p Sndvls unvotes Coffee (0) 7:31p Sndvls votes Bek (3) 7:59p Dubbs votes Bek (4) 8:12p Tyrith votes Bek (5) 8:14p Chubby unvotes Sndvls (2) 8:16p Qwikshot votes bek (6) 8:19p Anxiety votes cronin (3) 8:21p Bulletspongue votes Bek (7) 8:22p Cronin's last post **** Silence some time at or after this *** 8:28p Dubb unvotes bek (6) 8:28p Dubb votes cronin (4) 8:31p Bulletspongue unvotes bek (5) 8:31p Bulletsponge votes cronin (5) *** Ties Bek & Cronin at 5 *** 8:32p Barkeep votes cronin (6) *** Puts Cronin into lead to stay *** 8:36p Alan unvotes bek (4) 8:36p Alan votes cronin (7) 8:58p Vince unvotes Passacaglia (0) 8:58p Vince votes cronin (8) 8:59p Tanglewood votes cronin (9) 9:18p Chubby votes bek (5) 9:57p Blade votes Tanglewood (2) 9:58p Bek votes Chubby (2) The last posts from Cronin before being silenced was going back and forth with Saldana about who exactly did not get the rules and then starting to question if Dubbs and Sndvls might be bad guys trying to pull the wool over our eyes. For now, with his 180 yesterday on Sndvls and based on timing of his votes and actions to when Cronin disappeared.. Vote Dubbs Now might be a good time to explain why exactly you went from questioning Sndvls publically to trying to save him from what at the time was a 3-2 lead for lynching over Bek and Cronin. |
06-21-2006, 10:03 AM | #967 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Mass.
|
Dola, all times above are Eastern time zone. so game time + 1 hour. sorry for lack of conversions to game time (CST)! Lynch in eastern time was 10p
|
06-21-2006, 10:12 AM | #968 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Colorado Springs
|
By the by, to add one more point.
IF we assume Lathum was indeed the subject of a Seer view yesterday and not a necro view (which is not a stretch, but certainly not a sure thing), dubb cannot be the Seer. Which rules out either of the two known means to fully vouch for another player. |
06-21-2006, 10:28 AM | #969 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
|
Dubb and SnDvls COULD be brothers. Brothers is a neutral role, so just because one is good doesn't mean the other is, but dubb might be willing, at this early stage, to vouch for his brother.
|
06-21-2006, 10:29 AM | #970 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
|
Where as sndvls would not be willing to. Just to throw out a scenario there.
|
06-21-2006, 10:35 AM | #971 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Mass.
|
The brothers role is really the only role I can see as being a legitimate method for dubb to have knowledge of sndvls. But if thats the case why would dubbs have been aggressive towards him in the game about the coffee vote? If they were brothers, he could have just PM'd him or such.
Right now Sndvls does not have any acknowledging of dubbs from what I can see, so this has been pretty much one sided so far. Don't get me wrong, this evidence on the sndvls thing, the cronin attacks, the sudden change to cronin and cronin getting silenced isn't condemning evidence so there are plenty of holes. Its all I can find right now though so far. |
06-21-2006, 10:37 AM | #972 | |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: TX
|
Quote:
i was jesting about not voting. of course im going to vote. though from now on im going to be more careful who i vote for. i cant remeber whos post i read but there was one that peeked my interest and caused me to change my vote. granted my early vote for Bek was because he wasnt around and he voted for me on day 1 so it was a weak vote to begin with |
|
06-21-2006, 10:40 AM | #973 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: the yo'
|
poor Cronin
|
06-21-2006, 10:43 AM | #974 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Syracuse, NY
|
Quote:
Unless of course SnDvls really is good and Dubbs is a necro which is why SnDvls is just avoiding it (or trying to), Dubbs is his brother and killing him "has consequences for the other" (from the rules) but he is a necro Italicized part is simply speculation and is posted to merely present another possibilty, not nescessarily one I believe is true. |
|
06-21-2006, 10:52 AM | #975 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Jul 2001
|
We aren't brothers unless I wasn't told it to start.
|
06-21-2006, 10:59 AM | #976 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Mass.
|
Quote:
Any idea why he would have vouched for you suddenly yesterday when your neck was on the line? Or idea of how he would have any information about you at all? |
|
06-21-2006, 11:02 AM | #977 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: New Mexico
|
Quote:
I will enjoy this game almost as much dead as I do alive. I am keeping a journal on my thoughts which will be published at game over. |
|
06-21-2006, 11:05 AM | #978 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
|
Ok so that theory is out the window.
So yes dubb would you care to share your transformation? You made a kind of smart alec remark about it yesterday but I think a better explanation is needed at this poitn in time. |
06-21-2006, 11:31 AM | #979 | |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Jul 2001
|
Quote:
Maybe he realized he was reading too much into my vote on CW? Honestly I don't know. It actually worries me some that down the line if he is bad I'm going to get ropped in with him pretty quickly. |
|
06-21-2006, 11:36 AM | #980 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Syracuse, NY
|
Quote:
Post #703 It's more than "VERY confident", he's saying he is 100% certain. How could he be so sure if he was merely reading too much into SnDvls vote for CW (which is still suspect IMO) |
|
06-21-2006, 11:39 AM | #981 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
|
SnDvls I am not used to you being so defensive. Both yesterday and today it seems like the minute someone looks at you, you're feeling like you're on the block. What's up with that?
|
06-21-2006, 11:44 AM | #982 | |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Jul 2001
|
Quote:
sorry if I seem defensive, I didn't think I was. Just find it funny how people read something that wasn't there in my post/vote for CW. |
|
06-21-2006, 11:45 AM | #983 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Jul 2001
|
dola - I thougt I was actually being more open this game than in most too. shows you what I know.
|
06-21-2006, 11:47 AM | #984 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
|
Well others could of course have a different impression. So taking the focus away from you and dubb: do you have any thoughts?
|
06-21-2006, 11:55 AM | #985 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2004
|
OK, I'm the soothsayer. How else could I go from being ready to vote someone and pretty much damn them to lynch to telling people to back off of them in about 10 seconds?
The post I used was number 644 and the answer I recieved was that SNDVLS was not trying to decieve me at this time. He was saying what he believes. So obviously I now go from target number 1 in day action to target number 1 in night actions with this reveal. Sometimes you should just take my word for things.
__________________
Quote:
|
|
06-21-2006, 11:57 AM | #986 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Jul 2001
|
I was just about to post this prior to the dubb reveal.
chubby seems to be pushing for a role reveal on dubb. IF he's the seer I don't like it. no one has had the same "revalation" that lathum had, but I don't feel it's anything to be worried about he could have a mystical power. |
06-21-2006, 11:59 AM | #987 | ||
Pro Starter
Join Date: Jul 2001
|
for reference here is my post #644
I quoted kingfc Quote:
|
||
06-21-2006, 12:00 PM | #988 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
|
Well that's a meaningless role reveal dubb, all things considered. You don't become that much larger of a target becuase you could still be a bad guy. Also the EG can be ordered to protect you endlessly if need be. But now that you're out have you used your other target? Why use it so early and on Sndvls? Which phrase did you test? What limitations are there on phrases you can test?
|
06-21-2006, 12:04 PM | #989 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Jul 2001
|
chubby - question for you.
you didn't like my actions yet voted the same as me, why? you trusted dubb to move off of me, but not enought to vote with him, why? |
06-21-2006, 12:05 PM | #990 | |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: TX
|
Quote:
thats a bold statement to say your 100% sure hes an egyptian. Dubbs would have to be a powerfull egyptian trying to save another egyptian hes sure of, or hes a wiley Necro whos trying to gain cover by protecting an egyptian (for the time being) i personally trust (a gut feeling) SnDvls. i doubt someone would vouch openly for someone who wasnt an egyptian. |
|
06-21-2006, 12:08 PM | #991 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: TX
|
wow, dubbs posted after i made my statement. good thing he came out because i felt a little "i dont trust Dubbs, lets hang him" vibe starting to go around
|
06-21-2006, 12:10 PM | #992 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Mass.
|
Quote:
Just an interesting observation.. Bulletsponge has been asking questions about how various things works or fundamental functions of the game, yet he has grasped a pretty decent bad guy strategy here. Take it as you will, I think there is a subtle difference between the two new comers and how they are behaving. Just my observation. |
|
06-21-2006, 12:12 PM | #993 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
|
If I were a necro soothsayer I would try and vouch for an Egyptian at my earliest possible moment to try and gain trust. Regardless now that we know what dubb is, and I lean strongly towards him being Egyptian, we can at least learn a lot more about the role.
|
06-21-2006, 12:13 PM | #994 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
|
Quote:
I've been very impressed by both newcomers, frankly. |
|
06-21-2006, 12:14 PM | #995 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Mass.
|
Quote:
yea, I'll move my vote Risk is far too great to the harm. He -could- be bad, but would rather not find that out right now and assume he is good. I just don't really have any good candidates to jump at. Going to go back through and look at what all happened yesterday to see if anything else jumps out at me. At least we now have an explanation for that question. |
|
06-21-2006, 12:14 PM | #996 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Syracuse, NY
|
Quote:
I voted for bek in the end because I wasn't fully convinced that cronin was bad. There were reasons he could be trying to provoke an attack on himself, some good and some evil. One of those reasons (the main one) was that he may be the EG and that a one on one attack by a necro on him would result in him killing the necro or at least IDing him. Obviously, he wasn't the EG but I sure as heck wasn't going to say that yesterday. My vote for bek wasn't becuase you voted for him, it was because there was no one I felt comfortable voting for so I went with the person who's been here the least. If there's anyone I'm going to follow, it's going to be Path (and I'm not saying I used that as reasoning for my Bek vote, I didn't) I felt, as did others, that it was best to give him the benefit of the doubt for a day. I did not trust him completely, I found it very strange that he would vouch for you the way he did (with his past statements). Go back and read my posts, specifically #714 and #721 for my exact words as it happened. |
|
06-21-2006, 12:17 PM | #997 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Mass.
|
Quote:
Hmm. Trying to think of how to express it without being insulting. I don't have a problem with the questions being asked or new players not quite sure what to make of things. But I feel with Chubby's questions there is a bigger consistancy to what he does and does not know. Whereas a few posts like the one I quoted from bullet seem to be more inconsistant.. I would expect someone who has some decent idea of bad guy strategy to know the basic flow to the day's order (ie: night action results, discussion, vote, lynch, night action). Not looking to make a huuuge deal about it though. just something that jumped out at me. Maybe I'm trying too hard to read into people's behavior here. |
|
06-21-2006, 12:20 PM | #998 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
|
Doesn't it seem like SnDvls's statement in that post #644 would be false no matter what? I mean, if king keeps his vote on Sndvls, there's NO chance we lynch a necromancer? That's automatically untrue, as king's vote along does not decide who we lynch. Or am I nitpicking?
|
06-21-2006, 12:27 PM | #999 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Catonsville, MD
|
Quote:
I wouldn't have joined, and in fact, am quite disturbed that people pushed Dubb this hard that he had to role reveal. -Anxiety
__________________
Check out my two current weekly Magic columns! https://www.coolstuffinc.com/a/?action=search&page=1&author[]=Abe%20Sargent |
|
06-21-2006, 12:28 PM | #1000 | ||||
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2004
|
Quote:
Well thats my role, and I'm pretty confident there is a necro version of it out there. I don't see why the rules would specifically say that it could be a role for either side and then end up giving it out to only one side. So IF and when I get night killed, watch out when someone else comes out with the role. Quote:
No, it is still in my pocket for use on day 5. Also, unless there is a better target for protection, prehaps until day 5 that may be a good idea. Quote:
I posted above that I tested post 644. Him claiming if we lynch him there is no chance we get a necro. My response I got was he was not trying to decieve me at this time. That meant to me he wasn't a necro at this time, which I posted yesterday. As far as limitations, I have no clue other than what is in the rules. I never asked for the role to be expanded privately by Hoops. My interpretations is I can't test "I'm not a necro" statements but any other wording is fair game. I assume I can test roles reveals and the like. As far as so early? Because I have to wait 3 days between uses. Thus if I would have waited any longer it could have gotten to the point where I only got one use in. Also, I felt it was best to test my best suspect on a day 2 that seemed like a day one. I was half tempted to wait to day 3 to use it, but figured there would be much more information out there than on day 2.
__________________
Quote:
|
||||
Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests) | |
Thread Tools | |
|
|